Andy Benoit is previewing all 32 N.F.L. teams. He wraps up the A.F.C. South today with a look at the Houston Texans. He wrote previously about the Colts, the Titans and the Jaguars.
It has become like waiting for Godot in Houston. It’s remarkable that Texans fans have once again rediscovered their optimism. We’re heading into, oh, about the fourth or fifth consecutive season in which Robert McNair’s club “should” be poised for a breakout playoff run. There has been just one playoff run in the franchise’s mundane nine-year history – an unsuccessful 2009 campaign that, ultimately, served only as a means for augmenting the disappointment of 2010.
Supposedly, this is really it for Gary Kubiak. It’s truly do-or-die. This coming breakout ’11 campaign has brought about virtually the same approach as the coming breakout campaigns of ’10, ’09 and ’08: riding the stable, prolific offense and revamping the scheme of the talented but underachieving defense.
Kubiak’s saving grace is that he works most directly with the offense (a unit that has ranked fourth or better in total yards each of the last three seasons). It may be a statistically inflated offense that wins more fantasy games than actual games, but the point is no one blames the franchise’s futility on this side of the ball. The blame is cast upon that awful defense.
General Manager Rick Smith – who’s sharing the hot seat with Kubiak – has thrown ample resources at the problem. In the five drafts he’s overseen as general manager, Smith has used his first-round pick on defense four times. He’s also watched Kubiak hire three different defensive coordinators, which has brought about the multitude of system adjustments. The most recent is also the most drastic: Wade Phillips implementing the 3-4 he ran in Dallas, San Diego, Atlanta and Buffalo.
In reviewing Phillips’s resume – in the 1980s the son of Bum also served as D coordinator in New Orleans, Philadelphia and Denver – Kubiak and Smith were given a stark reminder about the peripatetic perils that await those deemed incapable of getting a team over the hump. It’s rich that their fate is now in the hands of the same man who could not survive similar trials in neighboring Dallas last season.
Offense
We generally kick off the offense section with a review of the quarterback. He’s the most important player on the team. Unless that team is the Texans. This offense is not built around Matt Schaub – it’s built around Andre Johnson. The taciturn ninth-year superstar is the best wide receiver in pro football – it’s not much of a debate, either – and focal point of just about everything Houston does.
By constantly changing up Johnson’s route tendencies and where he aligns in various formations, the Texans prevent a defense from finding a comfort zone and rhythm in its coverages. Defenses that get brazen and try to defend the 223-pound receiver straight up get burned (Johnson has great wheels and is too strong for most cornerbacks to even think about jamming). Defenses that commit the proper safety help leave themselves vulnerable to other mismatches – usually involving a linebacker on Owen Daniels.
Now more than a year removed from reconstructive knee surgery, Daniels will most likely reestablish himself as the smoothest tight end in all the land. He has remarkably soft hands and a natural feel for turning upfield. While Daniels battled the knee in ’09 and a hamstring in ’10, the Texans discovered a second practical receiving tight end in Joel Dreessen. Dreessen is used as a blocker, too, and compensates for mediocre power with fantastic technique.
It’s a surprisingly typical receiving corps outside of Johnson. Kevin Walter is the gritty possession target underneath, and electrifying but unreliable Jacoby Jones is the field stretcher off the bench. Dorin Dickerson and a collection of undrafted youngsters are vying for the opportunity to replace David Anderson at the bottom of the depth chart.
As for the man throwing to these wideouts…there’s no refuting Matt Schaub’s credentials in this system. He’s had at least 4,300 yards and 24 touchdowns in each of the last two seasons. But one can refute the classification of Schaub as a big-time quarterback. Astute in Gary Kubiak’s West Coast style offense as he might be, Schaub doesn’t have the subtle anticipatory accuracy or sheer arm strength to consistently make the big-time throw under duress.
But Texan fans don’t need to get in a tizzy over this. Any offense that features a running back like Arian Foster can be just fine with a good-but-certainly-not-great quarterback. It was noble but foolish for the soon-to-be 25-year-old Foster to report to camp and sign his one-year restricted free agent tender of $525,000. That’s about a 45th of what he’s worth right now. As the N.F.L.’s defending rushing champion, Foster possesses a rare combination of power and agility that is ideal for any system but especially so for this one-cut downhill ground attack.
Foster will be without his Pro Bowl fullback, Vonta Leach, in 2011, though the addition of hard-nosed veteran Lawrence Vickers should offset enough of the loss (assuming former tight end James Casey doesn’t beat out Vickers for the starting fullback job; the Texans like Casey’s intelligence). The depth behind Foster epitomizes hit-or-miss. Scatback Steve Slaton has been everything from 1,200-yard star to bum in his four-year career. Derrick Ward, a 228-pound ersatz Foster, has been everything from 1,000-yard star to, well, also bum. Both are capable of thriving in limited roles this season. But if neither does, the Texans can defer to Ben Tate, their bruising second-round pick of a year ago who was supposed to play a significant role before torn ankle ligaments and a fractured fibula put him on the shelf.
Somewhat surprisingly, this potent offense has a line that’s nothing special. It’s certainly adequate, though, as all five starters have the necessary mobility to execute the zone-blocking techniques that are the hallmark the rushing attack. Left tackle Duane Brown’s ordinary pass-blocking does not justify his ’08 first-round status, but he’s developing well enough. Versatile left guard Wade Smith is a favorite of Kubiak and offensive coordinator Rick Dennison. Center Chris Myers struggles in close quarters but has started every game since signing here in ’08. Right guard Mike Brisiel shares reps with third-year pro Antoine Caldwell, though both have been listed behind undrafted rookie Darius Morris on Houston’s most recent depth chart (motivational ploy for the veterans?). Right tackle Eric Winston, coming off the best of his five seasons as a pro, has evolved into a very stout edge-blocker in the run game.
Defense
First, the bad news. Wade Phillips does not have an archetypal 3-4 player at every front seven spot in his defense (Shaun Cody at nose tackle…really?) But the good news is Phillips doesn’t need archetypal 3-4 players at every spot. In fact, if his 3-4 in Houston is anything like the 3-4 he ran in Dallas, Phillips is really running more of a 4-3 that just happens to line up as a 3-4.
A lot depends on how he uses Mario Williams. If the two-time Pro Bowler plays the part of DeMarcus Ware in this scheme, then he’ll actually be a weakside defensive end who lines up without a hand in the dirt. Phillips always aligned Ware on the open side of the formation (i.e. away from the tight end) to ensure that his best pass-rusher would draw a one-on-one matchup off the edge. This is a distinct 4-3 principle that often causes the rest of the defensive linemen to play one-gap techniques (a staple of 4-3 defense).
Williams has the pass-rushing prowess to impersonate Ware, and he’s probably a better playside run-defender (we have to see how he takes on blocks coming from space). In terms of skills, Williams might actually be more comparable to Anthony Spencer, Dallas’s staunch (before last season) strongside outside linebacker.
Spencer’s ancillary role will be filled by a pair of second-round picks: 2009’s Connor Barwin and 2011’s Brooks Reed. Barwin, who missed all of last season with a dislocated ankle, flashed superb straight-line speed but unripe change-of-direction as a rookie. Reed, a tenacious linebacker/defensive end tweener, is said to be similar. If he struggles adjusting to the pro game, undrafted fourth-year pass-rushing specialist Jesse Nading could see reps.
The one-gap principles of Phillips’s defense make for an interesting case study at nose tackle. The 304-pound Shaun Cody does not have the initial quickness to become another version of Jay Ratliff. He also doesn’t have the rapacious build of a true clogger. But he moves fairly well and plays with better leverage than you’d guess. So basically, the Texans are hoping they can survive with a middling player at this crucial position. The only other option is Earl Mitchell, a 291-pounder who presents the exact same dilemmas as Cody.
First-round rookie J.J. Watt is expected to be an impact player right away at left defensive end, while at right defensive end, energetic veteran Antonio Smith is expected to harken back to his days in Arizona, where he was a disruptor on their three-man line. Watt’s and Smith’s contributions in run defense could prove critical, as its unknown whether DeMeco Ryans and Bran Cushing can fulfill the inside linebacking duties. Both had banner seasons in ’09 but plummeted in ’10 (Ryans tore his Achilles’ and Cushing floundered as a read-and-react player at middle linebacker; Cushing also showed less week-to-week explosiveness – noteworthy considering he served a four-game suspension for testing positive for a performance-enhancing-related substance). Ryans and Cushing at least both have the size to meet the physical demands of taking on blockers.
Houston’s front seven alignment is irrelevant if the secondary doesn’t become less pathetic (let’s just shoot for “less pathetic” before striving for “decent”). The only starter who hasn’t been replaced is last year’s first-round pick, Kareem Jackson, whom Phillips has already said needs to overhaul his technique. (Phillips’s quotation was refreshingly honest: “I guess he was able to play at Alabama without a lot of technique, without worrying about staying low enough or moving his feet. I think that caught up with him. I think we can coach him.”)
Jackson will no longer be the No. 1 corner charged with difficult man-to-man assignments. Rick Smith paid $23.5 million guaranteed for ex-Bengal Jonathan Joseph to assume that responsibility. Joseph is one of the best deep-ball defenders in the league.
Second-round rookie Brandon Harris will have an opportunity to fill his long-term slot position right away, as backup Brice McCain makes quarterbacks’ mouths water and former Dolphins first-round bust Jason Allen is best suited for a mix of limited safety/corner assignments as a dime back. (Although Phillips likes Allen and claims he’s not ruling him out for a starting gig.) Fourth-round rookie Roc Carmichael could also factor in.
Glover Quin is actually not a bad slot defender – he at least broke up passes with consistency last season – and could continue to fill this role, but that would require him to vacate his new strong safety position on passing downs. That won’t fly unless the Texans are comfortable putting Allen or Troy Nolan there. The fleet-footed Danieal Manning gets a chance to start anew at free safety after being in and out of the starting lineup for four years in Chicago.
Special Teams
Neil Rackers is one of the best in all of football. He booms kickoffs and is accurate under pressure. Longtime Bear Brad Maynard replaces Matt Turk at punter, unless undrafted Brett Hartmann keeps turning heads in camp. Coaches would like to see the former L.S.U. star Trindon Holliday stay healthy and emerge as the all-around return specialist, but he must learn the basics of the wide receiver position in order to justify a roster spot. Even if Holliday sticks around, Texan coaches may have trouble resisting the urge to use the electrifying Danieal Manning on kick returns.
Bottom Line
We believed in the Texans when they had a potent offense and seemingly rising defense, and in the end we came away feeling duped. So why would we believe in them when they have a still-potent offense but now a seemingly rebuilding defense?
Predicted Finish: 2nd A.F.C. South
Andy Benoit is the founder of NFLTouchdown.com and covers the N.F.L. for CBSsports.com. He can be reached at andy.benoit@NFLtouchdown.com.
