Week 11 Matchups: Ugly but Effective

Chargers (4-5) at Bears (6-3)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Bears by 3.5.

Lovie Smith does not get the credit he deserves. His coaching staff is filled with temperamental geniuses who have impulse control issues. The offense is loaded with divas: when Roy Williams comes across as normal, you know you are dealing with some Timothy Leary-level team chemistry. On paper, Smith’s blitzed-up take on the stodgy Cover-2 defense, built around the talents of 30-something linebackers, looks about as dangerous as a Toyota Celica with mag wheels. This is a team that strives to beat opponents with punt returns, for heaven’s sake. Yet Smith has coaxed winning records out of this collection of disparate parts and quarrelsome personalities four times in the last six years, and he currently has a team that was universally overlooked in the preseason in the thick of the wild-card race.
Norv Turner has also mixed playoff runs with .500 seasons during his Chargers tenure, but he has done so under much more favorable conditions: his division is much softer, he has an indisputable franchise quarterback and he does not have to hold the reins on assistants like Mike Martz. Turner needs everything to break right to win, and this year nothing has. The Chargers’ offensive line has been torn apart by injuries, with Marcus McNeill (neck) and Louis Vasquez (foot) unlikely to play Sunday and the All-Pro Kris Dielman (concussion) out for the year. Philip Rivers’ mysterious slump is not so mysterious when his blockers are Brandyn Dombrowski and Scott Mruczkowski and his receivers include castoffs like Patrick Crayton. Turner cannot win when his quarterback is throwing interceptions, whereas Smith is only now learning what it is like to win otherwise: that is as clear a contrast as you need between these two teams. Pick: Bears.

Eagles (3-6) at Giants (6-3)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Line: Giants by 4.5.

Andy Reid’s Traveling Cautionary Tale Tent Revival has arrived in town, and we are celebrating with a trivia quiz! Match the following Eagles Dream Teamers — a.) Nnamdi Asomugha, b.) Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, c.) Steve Smith, d.) Ronnie Brown, e.) Vince Young, f.) Jason Babin — with their unique accomplishments this season:
1.) I chase receivers with the enthusiasm of a teenager walking to the principal’s office after a food fight. 2.) My quarterback rating of 0.0 is lower than the punter’s, and I may be starting on Sunday! 3.) I line up offsides when not inexplicably covering Cardinals receivers not named Larry Fitzgerald. 4.) I am among the league leaders with nine penalties this season. 5.) I crumple untouched after catches in the open field as if the yellow television first-down line is real and made of plutonium. 6.) I throw the ball straight into the air while being tackled at the goal line.
There is also an essay: Explain how Andy Reid can simultaneously justify a 42-16 pass-run ratio when Michael Vick (questionable) has broken ribs, and grow testy when his reasoning is questioned.
The answers: 1-b, 2-e, 3-a, 4-f, 5-c, 6-d. If you need reasons why Giants General Manager Jerry Reese did not dive headfirst into the free-agent pool this off-season, here are six of them. The Reid essay has no right answer.
Standard warning: the Eagles, like poorly-constructed playground equipment, can still be dangerous. Pick: Giants.

Buccaneers (4-5) at Packers (9-0)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Packers by 14.

Like a flabby Hope Diamond, Albert Haynesworth is a fascinating, oversized trinket that brings nothing but misery to anyone foolish enough to acquire him. The Buccaneers signed Haynesworth and immediately inserted him into their defensive line; the results were 185 yards rushing allowed and a 37-9 loss. The Patriots, meanwhile, improved as soon as they rid themselves of Haynesworth. That is not scientific proof that Haynesworth is cursed, but perhaps he should be placed in the Smithsonian until there are further studies.
Aaron Rodgers has thrown just 18 incomplete passes in the last three games. One of those passes was a spike to stop the clock, three were throws out of bounds and four were dropped by open receivers. Count the drops as completions and take away the spike, and Rodgers’ completion percentage in the last three weeks is 84.7 percent. Some football stat-heads will tell you that completion percentage is a meaningless metric. That is true about 84.7 percent of the time. Pick: Packers.

Titans (5-4) at Falcons (5-4)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Falcons by 6.

Advanced statistical analysis reveals that going for it on fourth-and-1 from your own 29-yard line in overtime results in a 99.9 percent chance of a full week of second guessing. Mike Smith had probability on his side when he made his doomed decision against the Saints. He also had the league’s worst punter (Matt Bosher) facing one of the league’s best return men (Darren Sproles), so he may have feared a rare-but-traumatizing Dodge-to-DeSean punting gaffe when he made the call. Mathematicians call it the Black Swan Theory, because rookie punters can make experienced coaches wish they were watching Natalie Portman movies instead of football games.
The Titans and the Falcons are now second-place teams behind flawed, injury-plagued divisional front-runners who have byes. As compelling as this game may be, the real action is in the training and meeting rooms of the Saints and the Texans, where Sean Payton tries to cope with injuries to himself and others, and Matt Leinart acquaints himself with the children’s menu of the Texans’ playbook (“I can’t decide between the Donald Duck Zone Stretch to Arian Foster and the Andy Panda iso to Ben Tate!”) Pick: Falcons.

Bills (5-4) at Dolphins (2-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Dolphins by 2.
Having unsuccessfully game-planned for one opponent per week for most of the season, Dolphins coaches are preparing for two: the Bills on Sunday, and the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. “It’s tough because coaches can’t keep it to one game at a time,” Coach Tony Sparano said. “You can shrink it to the players. The only thing they’ll know is Buffalo and getting ready for Buffalo.” Shrink the Dolphins’ game plan too far, and it collapses into a Brandon Marshall Singularity from which only dropped passes can escape.
The Dolphins have gotten help in their back-to-back victories from an unlikely source: Reggie Bush, perpetual disappointment and current front-runner for Best Supporting Actor in a Reality Television Divorce Fiasco. “Something’s gotten into him,” tackle Vernon Carey said of Bush, who has run for 242 yards and 3 touchdowns in three weeks. Work ethic? Dignity? The realization that his name comes up more often on E! than ESPN has probably put a little spring in his step. Pick: Bills.

Cowboys (5-4) at Redskins (3-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Cowboys by 7.5.

The rookie sensation DeMarco Murray has rushed for 601 yards in the last four games, but that does not mean he has earned a starting job. Felix Jones may soon return from an ankle injury, and Cowboys Coach Jerry Jones (if he is not going to pretend otherwise then neither are we) gave conflicting reports during the week about how the carries will be divided when Felix Jones returns. “I haven’t seen enough of DeMarco,” Jones said, though he later explained that Murray would still get the bulk of the carries. That makes Felix Jones the nominal starter, an important position held by his predecessors, Julius Jones and Marion Barber. The nominal starter’s job is to not be as good as the backup, yet still lay claim to the starting role, allowing Jerry Jones to sound sagacious and quasi-mysterious when discussing his roster decisions during news conferences.
The twice-annual Cowboys-Redskins games serve the important purpose of making the Cowboys organization appear functional and sane by comparison. Pick: Cowboys.

Raiders (5-4) at Vikings (2-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Raiders by 1.

Both the Raiders rookie receiver Denarius Moore and the Vikings rookie tight end Kyle Rudolph made spectacular one-handed catches in prime-time games last week. While Rudolph has been a bright spot for the Vikings, Moore has kept the Raiders in the playoff picture by giving Carson Palmer exactly what he needs, on and off the field. “Denarius Moore doesn’t say anything,” Palmer told The San Francisco Chronicle. Having spent a year living through “The T.Ocho Show,” Palmer deserves a little therapeutic silence. Pick: Raiders.

Panthers (2-7) at Lions (6-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Lions by 7.

Lions Coach Jim Schwartz said that the 22-m.p.h. winds at Soldier Field, not a finger injury, hampered quarterback Matthew Stafford in the Lions’ 37-13 loss to the Bears. “The wind affected his actual throwing,” Schwartz said. “I don’t think it had anything to do with the actual finger.” Stafford’s virtual throwing and hypothetical finger were not affected. Schwartz also said that his team “didn’t respond well” to turnovers. Considering how often their games end in brawls, it is not clear if the Lions respond well to anything. Pick: Lions.

Jaguars (3-6) at Browns (3-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Even.

Two of the people on the following list are not on the Jaguars’ active roster. Can you spot them? The list: Guy Whimper, Leger Douzable, Julius Strangepork, John Chick, Cecil Shorts, Danny Rebus. Give up? Whimper, Douzable, Chick and Shorts are all real-life Jaguars. Rebus is a character on the new “Electric Company,” and Strangepork was the medical officer on “Pigs in Space.” Give the Jaguars credit for at least adding a little flair to their anonymity. Pick: Browns.

Bengals (6-3) at Ravens (6-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Ravens by 7.

Ray Rice carried the ball just five times in last Sunday’s loss to the Seahawks, which can only mean one thing: Andy Reid sneaked into John Harbaugh’s briefcase and fiddled with his game plans. Rice was steamed, and he did not talk to reporters after the game, explaining later that locker-room frustration “leads to disaster, leads to trouble, leads to people pointing fingers,” And disaster, trouble, and finger-pointing lead to extra-awesome game capsules! C’mon, Ray, some of us are trying to earn a living here. Pick: Ravens.

Seahawks (3-6) at Rams (2-7)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Rams by 1.5.

All four N.F.C. West teams won last week, the kind of cosmic convergence that makes you want to climb into a teepee and listen to old Yes albums until the lyrics make sense. The schedulers knew we could only take so much, so the N.F.C. West teams all face each other this week in a kind of toddler swim meet. The Rams have scored 13 points in back-to-back games, so it can be argued that their offense has found consistency, though 4 of those points came from their defense. The Seahawks are nearly unbeatable when you turn the ball over to them in the red zone three times. Pick: Rams.

Cardinals (3-6) at 49ers (8-1)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: 49ers by 9.5.

A predictable, rather sad quarterback controversy is brewing in Arizona after John Skelton’s back-to-back wins over the Rams and the Eagles. It is hard not to go through the motions on the Skelton vs. Kevin Kolb debate. Fordham bona-fides aside, Skelton is an adequate backup at best, his performance against the Rams (two safeties!) was dreadful, and the Cardinals are terrible. This is controversy as reflex, the automatic need to yell, “He provided a spark!” after even the least convincing victory by the guy off the bench. Skelton can only be successful if he faces a Juan Castillo-coached defense every week, with Larry Fitzgerald covered by linebackers and All-Pro pass rushers lined up a quarter-mile away from the quarterback. The 49ers, who actually know how to use their defensive talent, will not be as obliging as the Eagles. Pick: 49ers.

Chiefs (4-5) at Patriots (6-3)
Monday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Patriots by 15.

With Matt Cassel (hand) out indefinitely, the left-hander Tyler Palko takes over a Chiefs offense that has scored 13 points in the past two weeks. Todd Haley has reinstated his rotate-the-backfield lunacy, limiting the playing time of Jackie Battle (4.6 yards per carry) so he can find a role for Thomas Jones (2.9 yards per carry). So things are not going well for the Chiefs president, Scott Pioli, who may feel the urge to barricade himself inside his old office in Foxborough, Mass., and refuse to come out. Pick: Patriots.

At Soldier Field, the Faithful Salute Payton

At Sunday’s Bears-Panthers game, there were “probably more fans wearing 34s on their backs at Soldier Field than at any point since the mid-80s,” wrote Dan Pompei of The Chicago Tribune. The faithful were making a show of support for Walter Payton, enshrined in the Hall of Fame in 1993, dead of a rare liver disease in 1999 and described as a Vicodin-popping, laughing-gas-inhaling adulterer in a book excerpt published last week.

There’s little to put Chicagoans in a sourer mood than an attack on the running back known as “Sweetness,” considered as saintly as he was tenacious. People prefer the highlight reel with Carly Simon singing “Nobody Does it Better,” with Payton evading tacklers and not, as the piece in Sports Illustrated says, hustling morphine prescriptions from dentists.

The book is “Sweetness: The Enigmatic Life of Walter Payton,” and its author, Jeff Pearlman, says if people would just read the full 460 pages of this “definitive” biography they’ll find it’s far more than a rip job.

But the excerpt contains the juicy stuff. Payton is portrayed as a frequently troubled man who found life after football boring and whose marriage to his wife Connie was “a union solely in name.” Sweetness was said to prefer the company of a New Jersey-based flight attendant whom Pearlman gives the pseudonym Lita Gonzalez. The author describes a zany few days where the running back, “terrified of the potential embarrassment,” tried to keep his lover hidden from his wife during the week of his Hall of Fame induction.

Connie Payton, in an interview with ABC7 in Chicago, said that at the time of the Hall ceremony she and her husband “had been separated for a long time.” She said Walter didn’t act like someone using drugs, “didn’t slur words and didn’t act crazy,” but admitted that he was sometimes suicidal.

“I truly didn’t understand it because I would look at Walter, I looked at him and said, ‘You’re healthy, You’ve had a wonderful career, you’ve got money in the bank, really you are an accomplished person, why, why are you so sad? Why are you depressed, why do you have these problems?” she said in the interview. Mrs. Payton did not speak at length with Pearlman.

Many in the Bears family consider the book the literary equivalent of a late hit. Writing in The Chicago Sun-Times, the team’s former public relations director Ken Valdiserri, called the book “a self-serving, profit-mongering effort to sensationalize meaningless details of a complex person.” Mike Ditka, who coached Payton, said if he ever saw Pearlman he’d “spit on him,” which is no mild threat from one of football’s greatest expectorators.

According to the book, Payton sometimes brought tanks of nitrous oxide to Bears practices. They were loaded into his RV, and at night and during breaks, players would fill balloons with the laughing gas and carry them around while getting high.

Presumably, Coach Ditka did not participate.

For the Bears, a Fake That Was Almost Fabulous

Coming soon to a playing field near you is a trick play so clever it’s likely to be imitated on punt returns throughout the land. Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers, speaking for the team that got duped, called it “the most incredible play I’ve ever seen,” a convincing pantomime that left people “wondering what the heck just happened.” His teammate Greg Jennings thought it was “the best play I’ve ever seen.”

With just over a minute left in the Packers 27-17 beat-down of the Bears, Green Bay punter Tim Masthay got off a towering kick meant to pin Chicago deep in its territory. The ball was heading left but return man Devin Hester pretended it was going right, staring into the sky at a pretend pigskin and moving into place behind a wall of play-acting teammates. Ten of the Packers, looking at Hester rather than the ball, ran toward him like autograph hounds at a Justin Bieber sighting.

Johnny Knox of the Bears had lined up in position to block one of the Green Bay gunners. Just prior to the snap, he raced backward, putting himself in position to catch the kick over his shoulder. The only Packer following the actual arc of the punt was Masthay himself, and he proved no match for Knox, who had two blockers ahead of him to clear the path to the end zone. It appeared to be an 89-yard touchdown, which would have made it a 27-24 game and put the Bears in position to win or tie if they recovered an on-side kick.

Instead Chicago was penalized for holding. Corey Graham, re-signed this year by the Bears for his usually-heady special teams play, had grabbed one of the Packers up field. “It was a bad play by me,” Graham confessed later, pointing out the obvious, that he had committed a foul 30 or 40 yards away from the ball on a player who was soon running in the wrong direction. “I should have let him go, just don’t even touch him.”

The Oscar goes to: Devin Hester. The Razzie to: Corey Graham.

2011 Chicago Bears Season Preview

Andy Benoit is previewing all 32 N.F.L. teams. He kicks off the N.F.C. North with an analysis of the Bears, who will be playing the Giants tonight in a preseason game.

By virtually all measurements, the Chicago Bears should be better in 2011. They enter the season with fresh playoff experience. Their leader, Lovie Smith, once on the hot seat, is now one of the five highest-paid coaches in the game after signing a contract extension that reportedly pays him in the neighborhood of $6 million annually through 2013. The offense is better acclimated to Mike Martz’s system and has three new key contributors in wide receiver Roy Williams, running back Marion Barber and the first-round rookie right tackle Gabe Carimi. And the defense is the same defense that ranked fourth in points allowed last season.

Yet, if you asked your gut, it’d probably say this team will not be better in 2011…right? When you lose the N.F.C. championship at home, being better the next year basically means reaching the Super Bowl. Is anyone outside the Windy City talking about the Bears and Super Bowl XLVI?

Last time the Bears went 11-5 and reached the playoffs, they did go all the way to the Super Bowl the following year. But that ’06 campaign was followed the next three years by seasons of 7-9, 9-7 and 7-9. That stretch of mediocrity is one source of the doubt some people are feeling about this squad.

Or maybe there’s doubt because Chicago’s quarterback, the neither likeable nor outgoing Jay Cutler, doesn’t fit the profile of a typical star. Even with scores of people embarrassing themselves by questioning the man’s toughness in the N.F.C. championship loss, Cutler isn’t acting as if he he has anything to prove in 2011. After all, having something to prove would require caring about what folks outside the locker room think. Cutler may play the season with a chip on his shoulder, but that chip has actually been there since Denver made him a first-round pick in 2006.

Maybe there’s doubt about this club because no one really believes its systems can work again. Mike Martz’s downfield passing offense on the sloppy Soldier Field track? Behind this terrible offensive line? No way. Lovie Smith’s traditional Tampa 2 defense? In this day of 3-4 blitzing and amoeba looks? Not a chance.

Or maybe the doubt pertains to the sheer magnificence of the rival Packers. Or to the league’s new kickoff rules, which put a serious dent in this team’s greatest strength. Or to  Bears’ fans being ticked off at General Manager Jerry Angelo for not partaking in the free-agent frenzy and for low-balling the now-departed veteran center Olin Kreutz. (Bears fans are off base here in their criticism of Angelo.)

Whatever the reason, the Chicago Bears aren’t being regarded as legitimate Super Bowl contenders in 2011. Is that Football America being prudent, or Football America unwisely overlooking this team again?

Offense

The Bears know they can’t afford to have Jay Cutler sacked 52 times again this season. But there might be little they can do about it. Mike Martz’s offense is built predominantly on downfield routes that develop slowly off seven-step drops. It’s also built on maximizing the number of receiving outlets. Instead of having running backs stay in and pass protect, they often run patterns out of the backfield. In this system, the only eligible receiver who stays in and blocks is usually the tight end, which is why the Bears felt comfortable trading the pass-catching oriented Greg Olsen to Carolina. (The 262-pound Kellen Davis will fill Olsen’s spot, with some help from lanky ex-Steeler Matt Spaeth.)

Whether you like it or not, this is the system. This is what you sign up for when you hire Martz to coordinate your offense. As you might imagine, Martz’s system puts considerable demands on the offensive line in pass protection. And, as it’s plain to see, the Bears don’t have the talent up front to consistently meet these demands. They’re hoping that rookie right tackle Gabe Carimi can ameliorate the issue. Perhaps he can, but his presence won’t make up for lumbering left tackle JaMarcus Webb’s cinderblock feet. It’s stunning that the Bears are having the ’10 seventh-round pick guard Cutler’s blind side. Frank Omiyale wasn’t great in this position last season, but he wasn’t the liability Webb will be.

Inside is almost equally precarious. Left guard Chris Williams is a poor lateral mover whose feet get cemented in pass protection, particularly against bull-rushers. Right guard Roberto Garza is serviceable but lacks elite quickness. There’s a ray of hope with new center Chris Spencer, who’s 29 and a likely upgrade over the rapidly declining Olin Kreutz. Spencer has good size and adequate power; the question is, Can he win the job and stay healthy? (Garza began training camp as the starting center, with Lance Louis at right guard. But Garza has started just one game at center in his 11-year career and isn’t great operating out of position; expect Spencer to eventually get the nod here.)

To Martz’s credit, he’s lately shown a willingness to tweak his scheme with more running plays. This uncharacteristic play-calling balance is effective not because it keeps the defense honest or sets up play-action (these axioms are more myth than truth in today’s N.F.L.) but because it gives Chicago’s unathletic front five more opportunities to fire off the ball as run-blockers, and thus, be the aggressors. That’s important for the O-line’s rhythm; this group isn’t athletic enough to survive 60 minutes playing with the reactive approach that dropping back in pass protection requires.

Martz has a more powerful run game to rely on this season. Matt Forte, with his smooth but overly languid running motion, is still the starter. But new backup, ex-Cowboy Marion Barber, figures to contribute prominently. (So prominently that quick, space-oriented veteran Chester Taylor could be cut.) Barber has the one trait any runner needs when working behind Chicago’s offensive line: the tenacity to break tackles.

Though balanced (or close to balanced), Martz’s offense is still distinctly pass-heavy. And rightfully so. An arm as strong as Jay Cutler’s isn’t found often. Best to take advantage of it. Because of unyielding trust in his arm strength, interceptions will always be an issue with Cutler (just as they were always an issue with Brett Favre). Not wanting to compromise his style of play, the best way for Cutler to continue cutting down on turnovers is to sharpen his presnap diagnostic skills. He’s never been very good in this realm.

Fortunately, Martz does a terrific job of helping his quarterback in this department. He doesn’t give Cutler audibling powers (you think Martz would be crazy enough to let someone change his play call!?) but he employs a panoply of presnap movements and shifts, which often compel a defense to settle into a predictable coverage.

You need predictable coverages when Devin Hester is one of your starters. Though a sensational creator on special teams, Hester’s mediocre 0-60 acceleration in traffic and his still-primitive route running make him an ordinary wide receiver. It makes no sense to start Hester ahead of speedy Johnny Knox (who exploits zones well and is clearly a guy Cutler trusts).

The Bears’ No. 1 wideout is Roy Williams. Don’t laugh. The 29-year-old veteran has become a whipping boy because of his disappointing tenure in Dallas, but he was never a good fit for that system (he’s a big straight-line target with enormous feet that make changing direction difficult). We know Williams is a good fit in Martz’s system – he had 2,148 yards receiving when the two were together for 28 games in Detroit.

Another underachieving ex-Cowboy, Sam Hurd, rounds out the receiving corps, though he’ll probably be behind No. 4 receiver Earl Bennett, a steady but not explosive underneath possession target.

Defense

Lovie Smith is one of the ripest apples from the Tony Dungy tree. Consequently, the Bears are pretty much the only team left still running a full-time Tampa Two. The vanilla zone scheme is like a tube television or flip phone: a relic of an era just gone by but still a serviceable tool for those fully committed to preserving their status quo.

The Bears can only pull this off because their status quo has always been superior to everyone else’s. For most defenses, Tampa Two is now a form of prevent defensel; it’s a soft zone that’s naturally vulnerable to swing passes in the backfield, passes in the 15-20-yard range outside the numbers and anything down the seams. But most defenses don’t have two star linebackers or a deep rotation of initially explosive defensive linemen.

At this point, Chicago’s stud linebackers, Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, both of whom are on the wrong side of 30, are more super cogs than superstars. This is to say that their experience and judiciousness in this scheme masks most of their mild-but-relevant physical decline. Both can still run, which is vital. In fact, Urlacher is probably the only zone-playing middle linebacker in football whose first step after the snap does not have to be backwards as respect to the possibility of a pass; he’s fast enough to initially attack downhill and retreat into coverage if need be.

Briggs eats up ground in space but is actually most effective in traffic. He’d make more sense at the less glamorous strongside linebacker position, but three Pro Bowls as a weakside ‘backer nullify any thoughts of a position change. Hence, the vastly underrated Nick Roach, who plays fast all-around, starts on the weak side. It’s a fervid linebacking unit, over all, though its customary depth is nonexistent this season; special teamer Brian Iwuh is the only experienced backup.

Something very astute that Urlacher and Briggs often do is crowd the A-gaps right before the ball is snapped. Almost always they retreat back into normal linebacking position immediately after the snap, but by simply lining up right over the ball and presenting the remote possibility of a blitz, they force the opposing center to account for them. This prevents the center from helping either guard, which prevents offensive lines from double-teaming Chicago’s defensive linemen without sacrificing a running back or tight end. This is a key for a defense predicated on generating pressure with a classic four-man rush.

Obviously, with Julius Peppers around, offenses are still going to sacrifice their backs or tight ends to help double-team the end. That’s the value of Peppers, and Bears defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli has created some great designs to take advantage of the attention he attracts (the best probably being a delay blitz from the secondary, which exploits running backs who have abandoned the backfield to go help on Peppers).

Israel Idonije matched Peppers’s sack total last season (eight) and employed his terrific movement skills on stunts and bull-rushes both inside and out. The versatile Idonije can line up as a defensive tackle in nickel, if need be, and make room for second-year pro Corey Wootton (barring recurring knee problems) or disappointing ex-Jet Vernon Gholston on the edge.

Second-round rookie Stephen Paea is expected to be a force both as a two-gap occupier at nose tackle and one-gap penetrator as a three-technique. He’ll probably start at some point, although hardworking and flexible Henry Melton and low-leveraged plugger Anthony Adams could get the first looks inside. Matt Toeaina moves well and has power to warrant significant snaps as well. And, just as a shot in the dark, the Bears brought in former Texans first-round bust Amobi Okoye, who isn’t better than anyone mentioned thus far but is still only 24. Lovie Smith is a big proponent of rotating fresh defensive linemen, so expect Chicago to dedicate as many roster spots to this area as possible.

For offenses facing a Tampa Two, aligning wide receivers in minus-split formations (i.e. close to the formation) almost always ensures a wide receiver being matched up on a safety.  In Tampa Two, the cornerbacks do not flip sides or even stray far from their outside posts. Because of this, it’s important that strong safety Chris Harris and new starting free safety Major Wright (who is about the 87th different player the Bears have tried at this position) be able to cover. They don’t have to be stars – they’re playing a simple zone, after all – but if they’re stiff, they’re sure to get exploited.

Harris’d movement is O.K. and he has great physicality – he should be fine. Wright, a third-round pick a year ago, is a tossup, which his why Jerry Angelo spent this year’s third-round pick on another free safety, Chris Conte.

Right cornerback Charles Tillman is a turnover-creating machine when comfortable (which is more often than not). Left cornerback Tim Jennings requires a little more safety help but clearly has the hip swivel that Zackary Bowman was lacking in this spot. D.J. Moore’s tendency to stare in the backfield probably led to Corey Graham getting the nickel job. The Bears aren’t all that comfortable with Graham either. If they were, they wouldn’t have had unsigned ex-Colt Kelvin Hayden in for a visit.

Special Teams

Robbie Gould is as fine a place-kicker as the league has to offer. His sterling accuracy numbers are often protected by Lovie Smith’s reluctance to attempt long field goals. New punter Adam Podlesh ranked fifth in the league in net average as a Jaguar last season. Devin Hester is the best punt returner in N.F.L. history. And, with Danieal Manning gone, he’ll now get even more kick returns…or would have before the league implemented new kickoff rules that this team abhors.

Bottom Line

Pro football is partly about deciphering patterns and probability. Years of patterns and probability suggest that the offensive line limitations will catch up to the Bears sooner than later. The defense is staunch, though an injury to Urlacher or Briggs could prove fatal.

Predicted Finish: 3rd N.F.C. North

Andy Benoit is the founder of NFLTouchdown.com and covers the N.F.L. for CBSsports.com. He can be reached at andy.benoit@NFLtouchdown.com.