Timothy Bradley signs with Top Rank; will be on Nov. 12 Pacquiao card

Unbeaten Coachella Valley boxer Timothy Bradley signed a new promotional contract Thursday and was assigned a prominent semi-main event fight, most likely against former champion Joel Casamayor, on the Nov. 12 Manny Pacquiao-Juan Manuel Marquez card at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.

Bradley (27-0, 11 knockouts) hasn't fought since January following a split with former promoters Gary Shaw and Ken Thompson, who've sued the fighter claiming he owes them one more fight after walking away from an estimated $1.25-million pay day in July against junior-welterweight world champion Amir Khan of England.

Bradley hasn't settled with Shaw and Thompson, the boxer's manager Cameron Dunkin said, but he's been legally advised he can sign with veteran fight promoter Bob Arum's Top Rank company.

Arum confirmed the signing Thursday night.

"He hasn't been promoted correctly," Arum said. "We'll figure out a way, and showing him to the audience we're most dependent upon -- the pay-per-view fans -- is a great way to get this moving along."

Should Pacquiao and Bradley win Nov. 12 and promoters remain unable to stage the Pacquiao-Floyd Mayweather Jr. super-fight, Bradley is strongly positioned to have a shot at the Filipino superstar.

Arum said he hasn't promised a bout against Pacquiao to Bradley.

Dunkin agreed, adding, "But fights like that can happen for him now. It opens the door for him to great shows, big exposure. He's ecstatic."

--Lance Pugmire

Photo: Timothy Bradley during a training session at the Indio Boys and Girls Club earlier this year. Credit: Christina House / For The Times

Kings, Drew Doughty agree on new contract [Updated]

The Kings and defenseman Drew Doughty verbally agreed on a new contract Thursday night, meaning the restricted free agent could join the team in time for its upcoming trip to Germany and Sweden for its final exhibition game and first two regular-season games.

Financial terms were not immediately available. However, after weeks of frustration and stalled negotiations, General Manager Dean Lombardi planned to sweeten the average annual value of the club's offer to exceed $6.8 million, the current team-leading average annual value of Anze Kopitar's contract.

[Updated, 8:30 p.m.: The deal Doughty agreed to is worth $56 million over eight years.]

Although Lombardi had said several times that he would not go above $6.8 million per year for Doughty, the stalemate and Doughty's apparent willingness to accept a long-term deal led Lombardi to bend.

It's not clear how long the deal will be for, but the Kings' last offers to Doughty gave him choices between a seven-year term and an eight-year term.

Doughty, 21, was a finalist for the Norris trophy as the NHL's top defenseman in his second season, 2009-10, but he struggled at times last season after suffering a concussion.

More coverage soon at latimes.com/sports

RELATED:

Kings defeat Avalanche, 6-0

Tim Leiweke eager for Drew Doughty's return to the Kings

Young defensemen making an impression for Kings

-- Helene Elliott

Photo: Kings defenseman Drew Doughty. Credit: Kirby Lee / U.S. Presswire

Rugby World Cup 2011: Predictions – Too little too late for Scotland, Samoa and Italy in battle of bonus points

Take your pick of headlines for this weekend’s rugby… Sweet and sour success for Scotland; Big hits but little luck for Samoa; Pasta and basta for Italy.

All three are tantalisingly close to the play-offs, but for different reasons they’ll all fall short of a quarter-final place.

Welcome to the start of the real world cup, a newspaper headline in Auckland read today, and they’re right. Come Sunday night and there will be elation and depression in almost equal measure. It’s the weekend of the bonus points.

Amazingly at this late stage in the pool games, only New Zealand are absolutely guaranteed a quarter-final berth irrespective of what happens in Pool A. Canada could still pip France to the runners-up place, but only a double-deluded dunce would see them beat the All Blacks with a bonus point in the process and France lose heavily to Tonga. So that’s settled.

Then it becomes interesting. Pools B and D will require bonus points to upset the current standings. Argentina will no doubt smash Georgia, so Scotland need not only beat old foe England at Eden Park on Saturday, but do so with four tries and deny England a losing bonus point.

A haggis or two too far? Absolutely – as Scottish fans here in Auckland readily admit. And yet, will this required hell-for-leather approach liberate the Scots for once and see them throw all caution to the wind?

I’ll predict Scotland to actually score a try or two – despite their lame duck performances at RWC 2011 so far – but to fall short in the end (and possibly even get beaten by England at the death as the clock ticks down and the dream dies fast). Scotland 21 England 19.

Likewise in Pool D, where the current table topper could still depart home on Monday. On most days I’d say smash-and-run Samoa have four tries in them, but they’ve looked hesitant at RWC2011 while South Africa are showing sharp and ruthless signs. Wales will do the business comfortably against Fiji on Sunday, so it’s goodbye Samoa at North Harbour on Friday. South Africa 37 Samoa 22.

The biggest and most intriguing battle looms in Pool C, where unbeaten Ireland could still exit early. And Italy don’t even need to score four tries to make that happen – though they’ll have to deny Declan Kidney’s team a losing bonus point.

But that’s poppycock. Italy's forwards are mostly awesome, but their backs often make a plate of spaghetti look orderly and organised. So Ireland 28 Italy 13.

Fair calls or ramblings of a madman as we start this weekend of shock and awe? Your calls please…

This blog is supported by Maximuscle, suppliers of Creatine to Courtney Lawes, Joe Simpson and the Welsh Rugby Team.

UFC: Dana White on Dominick Cruz versus Demetrius Johnson

Telegraph Sport asks UFC President Dana White if Demetrius Johnson deserves the UFC bantamweight title shot against champion Dominick Cruz this weekend in Washington DC ? Did Johnson rightfully get the decision over Miguel Torres in his last fight ?

Here's what Dana White had to say…

UCLA basketball: Freshman Norman Powell suffers concussion

UCLA freshman guard Norman Powell sustained a concussion Tuesday when he was struck by a teammate's stray elbow during basketball workouts. Three staples were needed to close a small cut on his forehead. Powell is being monitored daily and is listed as day to day.

The 6-foot-5 sharpshooter is a candidate to back up starting point guard Lazeric Jones in the Bruins' season opener against Loyola Marymount on Nov. 11 with regular backup Jerime Anderson suspended after he was accused of stealing a laptop computer in July. He pleaded guilty to the misdemeanor charge this month.

Concussions can be tricky things to put a timetable on. Matt Carlino suffered a concussion last November and was held out of three consecutive games before he was cleared to return. He then sat out the next two games because of limited practice time and eventually transferred to Brigham Young. 

-- Ben Bolch

Chargers safety Bob Sanders will miss another season

 

Chargers safety Bob Sanders was placed on the season-ending injured reserve list Thursday after sustaining a knee injury during the second game of the season against the New England Patriots on Sept. 18.

Sanders, who began his NFL career in 2004, had missed the equivalent of four seasons because of injuries before signing with the Chargers this off-season.

When healthy, he's an impact player. He was the 2007 NFL Defensive Player of the Year with Indianapolis and was selected to the Pro Bowl in 2005 and 2007.

“From the standpoint of where his knee is, it was a decision that was the right one,” Coach Norv Turner told reporters. “When you make a decision like this, it's based on medical facts first and included our feelings and his.

"I know that it was going to be difficult for him to continue. I've had a number of conversations with Bob over the last few days. This is difficult for him. I'm very respectful of what he tried to do for us and I wish his impact would've lasted longer. It's not something anyone could've anticipated. It's something that just happens.”

MORE:

With fast start, Lions finally join the club

Jets' Mark Sanchez not limited by broken nose

Plaschke-Simers video: Are the Chargers the best NFL team for L.A.?

 -- Melissa Rohlin

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

 Photo: Bob Sanders. Credit: Donald Miralle / Getty Images.

UFC: Dominick Cruz sets No 1 pound for pound target, Rampage looks to boxing switch

Dominick Cruz told Telegraph Sport this week that he will not rest easy until he is regarded as "the No 1 pound for pound fighter in the world". Cruz is currently ranked in the top 10, 9 by Sherdog, 7 by Telegraph Sport, but he insisted in an exclusive interview with your correspondent that he "wants to go on a run of victories" which will put him at the head of the list.

"I'd like to be up there with GSP, Anderson Silva and those guys, thought of as the dominant guy in the division, but also as one of the most valuable pound for pound fighters in the world. But that means defending the belt several times, and wiping out my rivals," said Cruz.

Cruz faces Demetrius Johnson in a second defence of the UFC bantamweight title (having defended the title twice in the WEC before it merged with the UFC) in Washington DC this weekend. The 135lb fighter with dancing feet and an elusive, off-balance style believes Johnson may struggle given the reach advantage the champion enjoys. But Cruz is taking nothing for granted.

"I've analysed him. He has a very good striking base, and is is very well-rounded. He moves well, and is light on his feet<" Cruz told Telegraph Sport. "He has a very good defence, and he's hard to get hold of, hard to hit. But he's also 5ft 2ins tall, which is favourable to me. He has a 6inch reach advantage to deal with. I know how to wrestle well."

"He's won a lot of his fights by being a better athlete than a lot of his opponents. He won't have that advantage with me. I'm going to fight a smart fight. I'll use my skill set to give him a hard time. Everyone has holes in their game. The key is to make your opponent fight your fight, and I'm good at doing that."

Paul Sass, the only British fighter on the card and a submission expert, meets American Michael Johnson in a lightweight bout. Sass, unbeaten in 11 MMA fights, has not fought in the UFC since the last event held in London, 11 months ago.

Anthony Johnson, who many believe could be a contender for the welterweight belt seemingly etched with the name GSP on it, faces Charlie Brenemman in an intriguing 170lb contest.

There are interviews with Cruz and Rampage Jackson in this week's ESPN UFC Podcast.

Listen here to this week's ESPN UFC Podcast

RAMPAGE TELLS TELEGRAPH BOXING SWITCH IS POSSIBLE, BUT BOXING COACH SAYS STICK TO MMA

"I hate fighting people who are scared," Rampage Jackson told me less than an hour after losing to Jon Jones for the UFC light-heavyweight title in Denver last weekend. "When you fight somebody who is scared you never know what they're going to do. They turn and run.

"That's why I'm gonna go to boxing. I'm gonna try boxing because they've got to stand with you. If I get knocked out I don't care because at least it's a fight.

"I've tried a lot of boxing, I'm falling in love with boxing and I know I can put butts on seats over there." However, Mark Kinney, Jackson's boxing coach, told Telegraph Sport that the UFC light-heavyweight should finish his career in mixed martial arts before making the switch.

Jackson is likely to fight on the UFC event in Japan in February next year.

Chris Foster previews the UCLA-Stanford game [video]

Times UCLA reporter Chris Foster discuss UCLA's ground game and secondary against Stanford, and the Bruins' upcoming schedule.

 

 

Week 4 in Fantasy Football: Favorable and Unfavorable Matchups

Jason and Justin Sablich are here to help you with your fantasy football team. The Sablich brothers will provide fantasy football advice throughout the season on this blog and on Twitter (@5thDownFantasy).

If you submit one of the 50 most accurate responses this week, you can win a prize from FantasyPros.com.

How do you know it’s been a bad week for your team’s ground game? One clue is your punter and your lead running back gaining the same number of rushing yards. Yes, the finger is slowly inching toward the panic button for Chris Johnson owners, and losing Kenny Britt for the season is not going to make things any easier on Tennessee’s offense. Yet, despite his incredibly disappointing start to the season, you’ll find him on our favorable matchups list for Week 4. Continue reading to find out why.

Do you have a “start or sit” question? We are taking questions on Twitter. Follow us at @5thDownFantasy.

Favorable/Unfavorable Quarterback Matchups

Favorable

Eli Manning (NYG) vs. Arizona – 
While playing with a patchwork receiving corps against the talented Eagles secondary, Manning tossed four touchdowns in the Giants’ upset win over the Eagles. Raise your hand if you saw this one coming. Put your hand down because you’re lying. Manning gets his WR2 back (Mario Manningham) this week against the N.F.L.’s 8th worst passing defense, a much more favorable situation if you need to use him. 



Matt Ryan (ATL) vs. Seattle –- This is not a great matchup on paper, as the Seahawks have been respectable against the pass so far. But their numbers might be a bit padded considering they played the 49ers in Week 1 and an inexperienced Kevin Kolb and the Cardinals in Week 3. With the Falcons at 1-2, they’re going to need a big game from Ryan this week, and we expect him to meet that challenge. Sure, his offensive line has been terrible, but Seattle hasn’t exactly been scaring quarterbacks with just five sacks. Ryan should still be considered a QB1 option in Week 4. 



Jason Campbell (OAK) vs. New England
 – Need a spot start this week? Campbell might be your guy. No team has allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks through the first three weeks than New England. His supporting cast is starting to gel as well, with Denarius Moore quickly becoming a dangerous weapon in the passing game and tight end Kevin Boss returning to action last week. He may even get Jacoby Ford back for this one.

Unfavorable

Colt McCoy (CLE) vs. Tennessee 
– McCoy was shaky against Miami last week and hasn’t thrown for more than 213 yards in a game yet. He’s unlikely to top that mark against a stingy Titans defense allowing quarterbacks just 13 fantasy points per game, which is the second-lowest average after to Pittsburgh. 



Joe Flacco (BAL) vs. Jets
 – The Ravens’ passing game surprised everyone last week, including the Rams secondary, which was caught off guard by speedster Torrey Smith. Surely Darrelle Revis and the Jets will take note of Flacco’s big day and we think that his pass-happy, Brady-esque outing was more of a fluke than a sign of things to come. Don’t forget that Ray Rice is still the best thing this offense has to offer. The Jets have allowed just 13.6 fantasy points a game to guys like Flacco. 



Tony Romo (DAL) vs. Detroit
 – His weak fantasy numbers aside, Romo deserves a lot of respect for his gutsy Monday night performance. Playing with a broken rib is one thing, but leading your team to victory despite the horrible play of your offensive line and receivers is another. He’ll need to pull another rabbit out of his hat if his supporting cast doesn’t get it together in a hurry, with Ndamukong Suh (1 sack, 6 hurries, 1 deflected pass vs. MIN) and the rest of the Lions’ emerging defense coming to town (14 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks). 



Matt Hasselbeck (TEN) vs. Cleveland 
– Losing a talent like Britt is going to have negative implications on Hasselbeck’s numbers. As John Glennon from the Tennessean points out, Hasselbeck was 14-of-15 passing for 163 yards with Britt on the field last week. His percentage went down considerably without him, going 12-of-22 for 148 yards. A road game against the Browns third-ranked secondary presents a tough challenge for this reeling offense. 



Favorable/Unfavorable Running Back Matchups

Favorable

Matt Forte vs. Carolina – 
Matt Forte ran for a career-low 2 yards on 9 carries against the Packers last Sunday. Give credit to the league’s best run defense, and put some blame on Mike Martz for completely abandoning the run in the second half. At least his hands kept his Week 3 outing from being a total fantasy disaster (7 receptions, 80 yards). He gets a great Week 4 matchup against a depleted Panthers defense that surrenders 19 fantasy points per game to running backs this season.

Chris Johnson (TEN) vs. Cleveland
 – Johnson was expected to break out against a weak Denver run defense in Week 3 but managed just 21 yards on 13 carries. But there are a few good reasons to keep Johnson in your lineup this week: Cleveland has yielded 20 points a game to the position in 2011; he was active in the passing game last week (7 targets) and the Steelers are on deck for Week 5, meaning the Browns will be his last good matchup before the Titans Week 6 bye.

Tim Hightower (WASH) vs. St. Louis – 
Giving up 174 yards a game on the ground makes the Rams the league’s worst run defense, which makes Hightower, who has averaged 13 fantasy points a game so far this season, a high-end RB2 start this week.



James Starks (GB) vs. Denver 
– It was a Week 3 to forget for Starks and his owners, but things may be already looking up as Packers Coach Mike McCarthy told the media Wednesday that he doesn’t expect Ryan Grant to play Sunday. The matchup here is pretty inviting as well, with Denver giving up an even 100 yards a game through the first three weeks. 



Unfavorable

Jahvid Best (DET) vs. Dallas – 
Averaging just 2.9 yards per carry through three weeks, Best has certainly struggled carrying the ball. While importance in the Lions’ passing game has made him worth a weekly start in your lineup, expect more of the same on the ground against the N.F.L.’s second-ranked run defense.



Peyton Hillis (CLE) vs. Tennessee
 – Hillis is expected to return this week against a Titans unit that has been tough on the run, giving up just 3 yards a carry through the first three games. His backup, Montario Hardesty, is also expected to steal more carries going forward, but that might actually be a good thing considering the heavy workload Hillis has already endured. 



Daniel Thomas (MIA) vs. San Diego — 
Thomas has been outstanding since taking over in the Dolphins’ backfield and needs to be in your lineup despite his tough matchup with the Chargers this week (4th worst RB matchup, 13 points per game). 



Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX) vs. New Orleans 
– This is another guy too good to bench, but there is concern that the Saints could blow this one wide open, leaving Jaguars rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert and Co. playing catch-up for most of the day. It’s a situation that doesn’t generally favor running backs.

Favorable/Unfavorable Wide Receiver Matchups

Favorable

Hakeem Nicks (NYG) vs. Arizona – 
Philadelphia did a fine job containing Nicks last Sunday, but with Manningham set to return this week, the Cardinals (9th best WR matchup) will have a much tougher time shutting him down. The Cardinals just allowed Sidney Rice to grab 8 balls for 109 yards in his Seahawks debut, and have yielded 25 fantasy points a game to wideouts on average. 



Santonio Holmes (NYJ) vs. Baltimore – 
Holmes saw just two targets in the Jets’ frustrating loss to the Raiders and was quick to criticize Brian Schottenheimer’s offensive game plan. But the Jets’ receivers didn’t exactly follow through on their eagerness to take on the Raiders’ struggling man-to-man coverage. Holmes will have to be much more involved this week if the Jets expect to win Sunday night in Baltimore, and we expect him to be. 



Brandon Lloyd (DEN) vs. Green Bay – 
Denver doesn’t figure to get much going on the ground against the league’s best run defense, but the Green Bay secondary has been beaten up badly the first three weeks, allowing the second most fantasy points to the position. Lloyd should see plenty of opportunities trying to keep up with the Packers’ explosive offense.



Percy Harvin (MIN) vs. Kansas City – 
Harvin having played in nearly 75 percent of Minnesota’s offensive snaps against the Lions means somebody was listening to all the negative criticism last week about the Vikings’ best receiver not being on the field enough. The Chiefs allow plenty of fantasy points to receivers (24 points per game), and may be missing their best cornerback Brandon Flowers after he suffered a right leg injury against San Diego.



Unfavorable

Nate Washington (TEN) vs. Cleveland
 — The Browns cornerback Joe Haden has quickly developed into an unfriendly matchup for wideouts, shutting down A.J. Green, Reggie Wayne and Brandon Marshall through the first three weeks. With Britt missing from the Titans’ passing attack, the Browns secondary (5th worst matchup) will be able to focus its attention on stopping Washington.



Andre Johnson (HOU) vs. Pittsburgh
 – Johnson gets his worst receiver matchup so far this season as the Steelers have coughed up just 12 fantasy points a game to the position. We couldn’t bench him if we tried, though. 



Steve Johnson (BUF) vs. Cincinnati – Johnson has been dealing with a groin injury, although you wouldn’t know it based on his excellent play (8th ranked fantasy receiver, 43 points). The Bengals represent the third worst matchup a receiver can have, but Johnson is too good to sit. 



Torrey Smith (BAL) vs. Jets – 
Smith had an amazing game last week and you might have grabbed him off the wire because of it, but it probably would be wise to sit him against a Jets’ secondary allowing just 14 points a game to opposing receivers.



Favorable/Unfavorable Tight End Matchups

Favorable

Greg Olsen (CAR) vs. Chicago – 
Olsen beat out Jeremy Shockey in the targets (10 to 7) and turned in a nice fantasy day against Jacksonville with 7 catches for 57 yards and a touchdown. Sharing Cam Newton with Shockey doesn’t do Olsen’s fantasy value any favors, but he’ll still get his looks and his former team, the Bears, is allowing the third most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. 



Randy McMichael (SD) vs. Miami – 
Antonio Gates’s status is up in the air and there is talk that he is considering resting his ever-troublesome foot for several weeks. McMichael would still be a desperation start, even though the Dolphins have been the friendliest matchup to the position so far this season (16 points per game). 



Unfavorable

Dustin Keller (NYJ) vs. Baltimore – 
Speaking of the Jets, this one is off to a great start, ranking in as the third best fantasy tight end behind Rob Gronkowski and Jermichael Finley heading into Week 4. His meeting with the Ravens will be tough, as they have allowed just 115 yards and 0 TDs so far this season, but sitting him isn’t an option unless you have the luxury of a Jason Witten or Jimmy Graham on your roster. 



Favorable/Unfavorable Defense/Special Teams Matchups

Favorable

Buccaneers vs. Colts, Redskins vs. Rams, Saints vs. Jacksonville, Falcons vs. Seahawks, Bills vs. Bengals



Unfavorable

Dallas vs. Detroit, Pittsburgh vs. Houston, New England vs. Oakland, Cincinnati vs. Buffalo, San Fransisco vs. Philadelphia

Do you have a “start or sit” question? We are taking questions on Twitter. Follow us at @5thDownFantasy.

Rays, Cardinals are up, Red Sox, Braves down in wild wild-card

 

After one of the most thrilling regular-season conclusions in baseball history, the web is abuzz with scenes of champagne-filled euphoria in some clubhouses and demoralized agony in others.

The St. Louis Cardinals and Tampa Bay Rays won the National and American league wild-card playoff berths, while the Atlanta Braves and Boston Red Sox were eliminated.

Let's take a look at what the teams' hometown papers are saying.

The Tampa Bay Rays:

TBO.com describes how the Rays became the first team in MLB history to be nine games out of a postseason spot in September and still reach the playoffs.

Tampabay.com details the champagne-filled celebration in the locker room following what Ben Zobrist said "just doesn't happen in baseball. This is what you would dream about happening."

St. Louis Cardinals:

Bryan Burwell of stltoday.com struggles to find an accurate word to describe the Cardinals, who were left for dead a little more than month ago yet have miraculously made the playoffs. Here are the words that he's considering: Lucky? Bold? Relentless? Unpredictable? Frustrating? Resilient? Flawed? Fabulous?

Bernie Bytes of stltoday.com discusses the top 10 reasons for the Cards' comeback. No. 1, he says, is the Braves' collapse.

The Atlanta Braves:

Jeff Schultz of the Atlanta Journal Constitution calls the Braves' woeful 10-20 record down the stretch "one of the worst collapses in sports history" and suggests that the problem is larger than a few roster tweaks.

Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal Constitution says that Braves did some major mismanaging. He doesn't think Manager Fredi Gonzalez should be fired, but he thinks he needs to become far more assertive.

The Red Sox:

Baseball Prospectus had given the Red Sox a 99.6% chance of making the playoffs. Boston Globe columnist Chad Finn describes what 0.4% looks like.

A Boston Globe reporter is shocked to be heading to a news conference with the demoralized Red Sox. For much of the season, he was sure he would be off to Fenway Park on this date to watch the team work out before Game 1 of the AL division series. Sitting at the airport, he recalls that the Red Sox haven't won two games in a row since August.

--Melissa Rohlin

Photo: The Tampa Bay Rays swarm Evan Longoria. Credit: Brian Blanco / European Pressphoto Agency

Baseball: What the hometown papers are saying

 

After one of the most thrilling regular-season conclusions in baseball history, the web is abuzz with scenes of champagne-filled euphoria in some clubhouses and demoralized agony in others.

The St. Louis Cardinals and Tampa Bay Rays won the National and American league wild-card playoff berths, while the Atlanta Braves and Boston Red Sox were eliminated.

Let's take a look at what the teams' hometown papers are saying.

The Tampa Bay Rays:

TBO.com describes how the Rays became the first team in MLB history to be nine games out of a postseason spot in September and still reach the playoffs.

Tampabay.com details the champagne-filled celebration in the locker room following what Ben Zobrist said "just doesn't happen in baseball. This is what you would dream about happening."

St. Louis Cardinals:

Bryan Burwell of stltoday.com struggles to find an accurate word to describe the Cardinals, who were left for dead a little more than month ago yet have miraculously made the playoffs. Here are the words that he's considering: Lucky? Bold? Relentless? Unpredictable? Frustrating? Resilient? Flawed? Fabulous?

Bernie Bytes of stltoday.com discusses the top 10 reasons for the Cards' comeback. No. 1, he says, is the Braves' collapse.

The Atlanta Braves:

Jeff Schultz of the Atlanta Journal Constitution calls the Braves' woeful 10-20 record down the stretch "one of the worst collapses in sports history" and suggests that the problem is larger than a few roster tweaks.

Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal Constitution says that Braves did some major mismanaging. He doesn't think Manager Fredi Gonzalez should be fired, but he thinks he needs to become far more assertive.

The Red Sox:

Baseball Prospectus had given the Red Sox a 99.6% chance of making the playoffs. Boston Globe columnist Chad Finn describes what 0.4% looks like.

A Boston Globe reporter is shocked to be heading to a news conference with the demoralized Red Sox. For much of the season, he was sure he would be off to Fenway Park on this date to watch the team work out before Game 1 of the AL division series. Sitting at the airport, he recalls that the Red Sox haven't won two games in a row since August.

--Melissa Rohlin

Photo: The Tampa Bay Rays swarm Evan Longoria. Credit: Brian Blanco / European Pressphoto Agency

London 2012 Olympics diary: athletes help Mark Ronson find his rhythm

Duet: Mark Ronson with Russian 400m runner Kseniya Vdovina

DJ and producer Mark Ronson,  famed for producing Amy Winehouse and Lily Allen, has collaborated with Katy B for Coca Cola's Olympic campaign.

Ronson recorded sounds athletes make, including the click clack of the ball hit by British table tennis player Darius Knight.

"But the sounds Darius creates, his grunts squeals and stuff are unusual and great," said Ronson, who has just one athlete left to record, the US hurdler David Oliver.

Ronson said he tempted Russian 400m runner Kseniya Vdovina onto a treadmill so he could accurately record her heartbeat at 120 beats per minute, the speed of the soundtrack.

Ronson said interesting sounds emanated from Mexican taekwondo athlete Maria Espinoza "when she kicks the crap out of people".

Coke erected a huge stage in the carpark of Forman's Fish Island, with the Olympic stadium as a backdrop, for the filming of a documentary about the ad. But no dieters here. Coke bottles and cans were everywhere, with the Diet Coke hidden out of sight.

Secret swim

Next Friday the British swim team members will have a swim in the Olympic Aquaticc Centre. But don't tell anybody. London olympic officials have told the swimmers the event is "top secret".

Televised? To who?

I'm just wondering what the Transport for London managing director Leon Daniels was doing during the Olympic road cycling test event.

Daniels has told the London Assembly that the event "was also a large,televised international event… it provided a number of benfits, not least of which was highlighting London as a cycling city to the world".

As Telegraph Sport readers know, the event wasn't televised anywhere except a few highlights a week later on the BBC.

Sky TV was specifically refused permission to film the race. Daniels also claimed "there was some very localised congestion".. but said it was "managed and minimised".

Hmm, some Surrey drivers stuck in five mile queues for five hours might beg to differ.

Drug cheats airbrushed from Games

LaShawn Merritt, the American runner infamous for use a 'male enhancement product' and testing positive to drugs will discover next Thursday if his appeal against the IOC's mandatory four year ban to the Court of Arbitration for Sport is successful.

If so, Britain's own drug users like David Millar and Dwain Chambers could stage their own legal battle to have the British Olympic Association's life ban similarly disregarded.

Still, that won't help Linford Christie's persona non grata status around Olympic circles. Locog chairman Sebastian Coe has a strict drug-free association for anyone working on the Games.

TV rules OK

What are the chances distance running great Haile Gebrselassie will force a re-think on the start time of the London 2012 Olympic marathon? Gebrselassie wants it two hours earlier at 9am, but broadcasters say that's way too early for the prime US audience.

What TV wants, TV gets: remember the bizarre morning finals for the swimming at the Beijing Olympics?

England's green and pleasant land

Fields In Trust, the authority that oversees the 471 King George's Fields across the country, is looking to expand the numbers of protected national playing fields, trails, play areas and gardens to a total of 2012 to honour the Queen Elizabeth II's diamond jubilee and the London Olympics.

Olympic legal sponsor Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer is helping to formalise the deals.

Day of destiny for 2017 bid

The world athletics body IAAF will be in London next week, running their eye over the city's bid to host the 2017 world track and field championships and signing off the red-coloured athletics track that has been laid at the Olympic stadium.

No surprise the Mayor of London Boris Johnson wanted an immediate response from Tottenham Hotspur to accept a £17 million funding package and drop their legal action against the Olympic Park Legacy Company.

The continual court threats are weighing heavily against the athletics bid.

Bill Plaschke: Baseball has its greatest regular-season finish

 

It was 180 days boiled into 180 seconds.

It gurgled with drama and popped with passion and when it ended, folks were wiping the steam from their eyes and wondering, really, truly, did that just happen?

The last night of the 2011 baseball regular season Wednesday may have been the greatest single night of any baseball regular season. It was two playoff wild-card spots won in final at-bats that cemented the two greatest collapses in baseball history. It was one of those spots won and lost by two separate teams in two separate games in a span of three minutes.

It was a night of gasping and groaning and frantic texting and nutty tweeting and shouting out loud in front of giant televisions all across America. It was a night filled with the sort of riveting emotion that only baseball at its best can still provide and when it ended, Evan Longoria, home-run hitting hero of the playoff-bound Tampa Bay Rays, stood dazed in front of a camera and spoke about the perfect storm that encapsulated an ancient culture.

"It was like we were out there for five hours ... then everything happened in a matter of seconds,"  he said.

How did it end? How do we start?

It was one of baseball’s most historically choking franchises gagging again, in the ninth inning, with two out and nobody on base and their veteran closer protecting a one-run lead against the Baltimore Orioles. The Boston Red Sox were 77-0 in those situations this season before Wednesday, then Jonathan Papelbon lost it and Carl Crawford blew it and the whole lot of them crumbled into history.

Three minutes later and about 1,000 miles away -- yeah, just three minutes -- it was one of baseball’s most delightful franchises stunning again, overcoming a 7-0 deficit to the best team in baseball. The Tampa Bay Rays tied the New York Yankees with a two-strike, two-out homer in the ninth by a guy who had not hit one in five months -- Dan Johnson, I believe -- then they won  three innings later and danced into October.

Wait. It was more. It was much more. It was screaming-in-the-dugout, hands-buried-in-faces more.
In the other league, it was a young and exhausted Atlanta Braves team finishing baseball’s second-biggest collapse by also blowing not only an 8 ½-game wild-card lead in September, but completing the dive by blowing a one-run lead in the ninth inning to the Philadelphia Phillies with star rookie Craig Kimbrel on the mound. The game was so overwhelming for the young Braves, their veteran Chipper Jones actually gave them a football-style pep talk in the dugout before the game. He then grew even grayer watching them run themselves out of big innings and pitch their way into a long winter.

Finally, earlier in the night, about 800 miles away, it was the St. Louis Cardinals racking up their biggest first inning of the season with five runs that pushed them into the sneakiest October entry in recent memory. I thought Tony LaRussa had retired. I thought Albert Pujols had left town. How do they keep doing it?

Walter Payton battled drugs, suicidal thoughts, new book says

 
Hall of Fame running back Walter Payton abused painkillers after he retired, contemplated suicide and struggled with depression, according to "Sweetness: The Enigmatic Life of Walter Payton," a new book by longtime sportswriter Jeff Pearlman.

Pearlman says Payton used a cocktail of Tylenol and Vicodin, mainly for the physical pain that he felt after retiring from the NFL in 1987 as the league’s leading rusher.

Without football, he became deeply depressed.

‘‘Payton found himself burdened by a realization that had struck thousands of ex-athletes before him: I am bored out of my mind,’’ Pearlman writes. ‘‘When strangers asked, he talked about how thrilled he was to be free of the burdens of football.... The words were pure fantasy. He would miss it desperately. ‘He went from an abnormal existence as an athlete to a normal one,’ says [daughter] Brittney, now 26. ‘How does anyone do that?’’’

The book says he kept tanks of nitrous oxide in his garage. His longtime agent, Bud Holmes, and his executive assistant, Ginny Quirk, said they received suicide calls at all hours of the night in the mid-'90s.

At the 1993 Hall of Fame induction, Quirk said Payton brought both his wife, Connie, and his mistress.

"The introduction into the Pro Football Hall of Fame is supposed to be the greatest moment in his life," Quirk says. "And in truth, it was probably the worst. Four full days, and Lita and Connie were like two ships passing in the night. If Connie was scheduled to come late, I'd make sure Lita was there early. If Connie was there early, Lita would be there late. I can't describe the horror of that trip."

According to the Chicago Sun-Times, Mike Ditka, Payton’s former coach, was upset by the revelations.

‘‘It’s pathetic, and I don’t want to talk about it,’’ he said.

 Payton died from a rare liver disease and bile duct cancer in 1999. The book goes on sale Oct. 4.

MORE:

With fast start, Lions finally join the club

Jets' Mark Sanchez not limited by broken nose

Plaschke-Simers video: Are the Chargers the best NFL team for L.A.?

 -- Melissa Rohlin

Photo: Walter Payton. Credit: Mike Eliason / Associated Press

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Carlos Tevez – a day in the life …

Man on fire: Carlos Tevez ain't gonna take it no more. Photo: AFP/Getty

(A day in the life of Manchester City's rebel without a clue, as mistranslated by an evil journalist)

I am wake early, and am having nice afternoon sitting in the kitchen designing a new range of snoods and talking to butler. I like butler; sometimes I think he is only one that understand me.

The wife comes in; she look angry. This could be trouble – I don’t want her to make me move countries again. She say to butler that someone is ringing at the front door bell for many minutes and why can butler not go answer the door like he is paid to do?

I look at butler. Butler look at me.

I know I have to take a stands. I put down my snood-designing crayon.

“No way,” I say. “It’s not your place to tell butler where to come and go. I like him here in kitchen with me. We are drawing picture of snood and deciding which watch to buy today.”

I show her design of latest snood: the Tévez Freedom Fighter snood. Is picture of me and Eva Peron fighting together against injustice (represented by Mancini dressed up as the forces of oppression in a dirty scarf).

She look at picture with sneer of disgust; like Sir Ferguson when I tell him I need more pay-rise to pay for fashionable clothes and fleet of cars befitting a man of my position.

My wife says this is ridiculous and that we pay butler so we can tell him to go and do things. She says it is bad enough that she cannot get a decent empanada for love nor money in Alderley Edge, and now she cannot tell the servants what to do?

I will prove her that I am the boss around here. To make my point, I start crying until she says butler can stay.

When I am stop crying, she say: “Okay Carlos. You go answer the door yourself then.”

No way. I am not warmed up properly for that. I go to sit over by breakfast bar and avoid her gazes. This is the time for me to say “No más”. Her request is totally unreasonable.

LATER Wife is still angry and she has been on phone to Mancini. I am been exiled to sit in garden with gardener. I do not like gardener; he has little interest in snoods. I expect we shall have to move to Italy.

N.F.L. Game Probabilities Are Back, With One Adjustment

Game predictions are back for 2011. As always, the probability model is based on passing, running, turnovers and penalty efficiency. But now, running is represented by Success Rate (SR) rather than Yards Per Carry (YPC). SR is the percentage of runs in which the a team’s point expectancy (based on down, distance and yard line) has improved.

SR correlates far better than YPC with winning games. YPC is too susceptible to a handful of relatively rare breakaway runs. I think of running as a jab and passing as a cross or uppercut. The jab is a low-risk punch that doesn’t expose your defenses, keeps your opponent off balance and guessing, and keeps him from purely defending against your cross. A good jab is a prerequisite, but the cross is what scores points and wins bouts.

Running can be more than that, of course. It’s essential in short yardage and inside the red zone. And when team has a lead, it burns clock and helps keep the ball out of an opponent’s hands in the fourth quarter. I believe the revised model captures this aspect of the running game and better reflects the true inner workings of the sport.

For new readers, here is refresher on how the model works. A logistic regression is fed net Yards Per Attempt (YPA), run SR, and interception rates on both offense and defense, plus offensive fumble rate. Team penalty rates (penalty yards per play) and home field advantage are also included. These particular statistics are selected because they are predictive of future outcomes, not because they explain past wins. This is a distinction overlooked by nearly all experts. Sometimes less really is more when it comes to predictions.

For example, turnover rates explain past outcomes very well, but a relatively small part of turnover rates carry forward and predict future outcomes. If a team has a very low interception rate of 1.2 percent, how likely are they to continue the season with so few interceptions? Chances are they will remain better than average, but not nearly as low as 1.2 percent. This concept is known as regression to the mean, and it’s essential for good predictions.

“Logistic regression” might sound like just mathy mumbo-jumbo, but don’t let it scare you off. The regression uses data from recent N.F.L. seasons to tell us how each facet of team performance is best weighted to predict which team will win a game. Each team variable is regressed again to account for how reliable each particular facet is throughout a season. In other words, the stats vary in terms of how consistent they are from game to game. For example, offensive passing efficiency is most consistent, and turnover rates are least consistent.

Lastly, the model adjusts for each team’s previous opponent strength. This is an especially important consideration early in the season, when some teams have only played weaker teams, and some have had to struggle against solid opponents. As the season wears on, strength of schedule will tend to even out, but never completely.

The predictions sometimes challenge our preconceived intuitions about games. If you knew nothing else about N.F.L. teams except for how well they’ve played so far this season, this is how you would want to handicap the games. Of course, we do know more than what we’ve seen the past three weeks. Sometimes that’s helpful, but at least as often it clouds our minds with bias.

For instance, this week it says Oakland should be favored to beat New England. Do I personally believe the perennial laughing stock Raiders are really better than the perennial A.F.C. East champion Patriots? Maybe not. But the model is telling us something to pay attention to. It’s saying: “Look deeper at the numbers that really matter. The Raiders might just be for real. The Patriots’ defense is just as vulnerable as they say.” So if you’re in an office pick ’em league and have to pick an upset, maybe this is the week to put your chips on Oakland.

An explanation of the principles behind the model and a detailed example of how it is calculated can be found here.

And now here are the game probabilities for Week 4:

Brian Burke, a former Navy pilot who has taken up the less dangerous hobby of N.F.L. statistical analysis, operates Advanced NFL Stats, a blog about football, math and human behavior.

Court case means doping history may not be airbrushed from London 2012

The Evening Standard’s Matthew Beard provides a timely reminder today that doping remain the most difficult issue for the Olympic movement. He reports that an imminent coffee-table book celebrating Britain’s greatest Olympians will not include Linford Christie, the 1992 100m champion.

The debate around Christie’s place in the Olympic pantheon has been well-rehearsed. Despite the fact that he failed a doping test long after his golden night in Barcelona, the British Olympic community is very slow to forgive. But it may not be able to airbrush more recent doping offenders from next summer’s Games if a crucial court ruling goes against them next week.

The Court of Arbitration for Sport is considering an appeal by reigning 400m champion LaShawn Merritt against the International Olympic Committee’s rule 45, which bans any athlete censured for more than six months from entering the next Olympic Games.

It announced this week that it will hand down its judgment next Thursday, October 6.

Merritt was banned for 21 months after failing a drugs test, an adverse finding that he blamed on his use of an off-the-shelf male-enhancement product, but is now competing again and won silver at the recent World Championships.

With the backing of the US Olympic Committee he is attempting to overturn the IOC rule so that he can run in London.

His argument is that the IOC rule is effectively a four-year ban, twice the two-years initially handed down in line with the WADA code, and it therefore constitutes double jeopardy.

All the soundings from the IOC in Lausanne and the athletics community are that CAS will find in Merritt’s favour.

So why does this matter to the British Olympic Association?

The BOA goes even further than the IOC, imposing a life ban from selection for Team GB on any banned athletes. This currently means that Dwayne Chambers, David Millar, a member of the outstanding British cycling team that propelled Mark Cavendish to the World Championships on Sunday and a member of the WADA athletes commission, are out of the running for London despite having served bans and being free to compete in non-Olympic events.

If CAS finds for Merritt the BOA’s byelaw, which has been successfully challenged by athletes including Christine Ohuruogu, will look more vulnerable than ever.

The question will then be whether any of these athletes has the will or the resources to challenge it. As well as legal obstacles they will face the court of public opinion, where we will discover whether the cherished 'Olympic values' stretch to accommodate human frailty, forgiveness and redemption. A personal view is that they should.

For Jets, Clamors of Doubt Are Familiar

After the Jets’ 45-3 loss to the Patriots last December, I wrote that no matter how successful the Jets were, the team’s doubters would never be far behind.

Welcome to the first such chapter of the 2011 season.

No one is questioning that the Jets’ 34-24 defeat at Oakland on Sunday qualifies as a bad loss. When you allow 234 rushing yards, no matter how the yards were accumulated, nothing positive can be drawn from it. The reasons behind how the big plays happened need to be addressed.

But the notion that the Jets are going to look at the schedule on the wall as if it were a bogeyman in the room? I wouldn’t count on that.

Worried about the Baltimore-New England 1-2 punch on the schedule in the next two weeks? Well, the Jets have been there and done that.

They opened the 2010 season with the same schedule under far more ominous circumstances. A bad loss by the Jets to Washington in the third preseason game in 2010 — the starters’ final preparation for the regular season — had many doubters saying that the Jets were not going to be ready for their tough early schedule. And Darrelle Revis was still a question mark because of his contract dispute. The Jets’ victory over the Patriots in Week 2 righted the ship and pushed the doubters aside until later in the season.

For the Jets, sometimes going back to the drawing board is as simple as going back to basics. For a reminder of what that means, here is another look at what Rex Ryan laid out as his plan when he was introduced as the coach in January 2009.

So what are the Jets’ concerns? Here is a short list:

1) Sunday’s loss to Oakland was the Jets’ second straight defeat to a team whose stated goal was to out-physical them. The other was to Pittsburgh in last season’s A.F.C. championship game. For the Jets to get back on track, that cannot stand.

2) Avoid the mistakes on the road that serve to energize the home crowd and the home team. Against the Raiders, two such instances stood out. The first was Mark Sanchez’s ill-advised throw into the end zone at a well-covered Derrick Mason. The throw was intercepted, and it came one play after Jeremy Kerley’s electric 53-yard punt return. The other was the decision to go for the first down on 4th-and-2 at the Oakland 37 late in the third quarter. The Raiders had been playing on a long field the entire game — 7 of their 9 possessions had started from their 20-yard line or worse — and their fourth-down stop charged up the stadium. The Raiders followed with a four-play, 63-yard drive that gave them the lead for good.

Are the Jets overrated? Will their doubters have the final say? The Jets have been down this road before and lived to tell about it. Fifth Down readers can join the discussion on this and other topics with George Bretherton and Bret Leuthner tonight from 6 p.m. to 7 p.m. Listen in or call in at  609-910-0687.