On Fourth-and-Inches, Why Not Use a Quarterback Sneak?

There’s a healthy debate to be had about whether Falcons Coach Mike Smith made the right decision to go for it on fourth-and-inches from his own 29 in overtime against the Saints on Sunday. The results said No, and afterward Smith took “full responsibility” for the loss.

More disheartening was the execution of the decision. In other words, why did Smith – or the offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey – elect to call a slow-developing handoff instead of a quarterback sneak? We see coaches do this all too often. A handoff in a situation like this, when the defensive linemen and linebackers have no choice but to instantly fire into the gaps, puts the offensive players in reaction mode. When the ball finally starts traveling forward, it’s 4 yards behind the line. On a sneak, the ball starts traveling forward four inches behind the line. The difference between the two situations is significant. Think of it like this: if your favorite team is on defense and facing fourth-and-inches, deep down, what are you hoping the offense calls?

Week 7 Film Review: Roethlisberger Buys Time

A closer look at some of the matchups in Week 7, with the benefit of film review:

Steelers O vs. Cardinals D

This game was just another showcase of Ben Roethlisberger’s uncanny ability to extend the play. He seemed not to even bother to read the defense before many snaps. Instead, he preferred to let the pass-rush define itself and then react. No other N.F.L. quarterback can have consistent success playing this way (not even Michael Vick). Roethlisberger made it work with his strength and underrated accuracy. Antonio Brown and Heath Miller were his go-to receivers most of the afternoon. That’s partly because cornerback Patrick Peterson did a stellar job of defending Mike Wallace (Peterson was not involved in the coverage on Wallace’s 95-yard touchdown – a play that was 90 percent about Wallace’s incredible speed and 10 percent about safety Rashad Jones’s playing just a tad too shallow). With the exception of left guard Chris Kemoeatu, who struggled in his first game back from a two-week knee injury, the Steelers offensive line was decent in pass protection. The running game was inconsistent for the first 50 minutes, however, with swift Cardinals linebacker Daryl Washington making several outstanding backfield stops.

Cardinals O vs. Steelers D

It was pretty much what you’d expect: the Cardinals did not muster a consistent ground game because the Steelers linebackers were too fast and aggressive (an active three-man defensive line enables that). Ike Taylor did a solid job shadowing Larry Fitzgerald (a notable portion of Fitzgerald’s catches came late against a semi-prevent defense; as for Taylor’s three first-half penalties, they were worth it considering he was able to be grabby in coverage for much of the afternoon). LaMarr Woodley was spectacular in getting off blocks. From the file of “unexpected,” the third-string nose tackle Steve McLendon had a terrific game. He’s not built to be a low-leveraged clogger, and he didn’t draw double teams the way Casey Hampton would, but he made a vast array of solo run stops in the first half.

For Arizona, there should be concern about the inability of the “non-Fitzgerald receivers” to get open. Also, several of their pass protection concepts were just plain wrong (they slid away from Woodley’s side and toward a non-blitzing Lawrence Timmons on more than one occasion). And finally, Kevin Kolb’s accuracy was awful whenever he threw off-balance.

Falcons O vs. Lions D

The Motor City crowd witnessed a very well-played game by both teams on this side of the ball. The concerns about Detroit’s run defense are overblown. The Lions held Michael Turner to roughly two yards per carry with the exception of a 51-yard run that was set up by fantastic run-blocking execution and a few missed tackles. The Falcons used a similar tactic on that play that the Niners used last week against the Lions: allow the left defensive tackle (Ndamukong Suh or Corey Williams) to penetrate and then block them from the backside (the Niners used a tight end in motion to do it; the Falcons used center Todd McClure). This creates a natural hole that, if you can keep the linebackers out of, puts your running back one-on-one against a safety. Great play.

On most occasions, however, the Falcons could not get Lions linebackers blocked. DeAndre Levy dominated the first three quarters and Stephen Tulloch took over in the fourth. Safety Louis Delmas was also a potent eighth box defender throughout. All three were able to use their  downhill speed freely because the Lions’ defensive line consistently outperformed Atlanta’s sluggish front five.

Through the air, Matt Ryan did a superb job stepping up in the pocket and getting the ball out quickly (three- and five-step drops were a big part of the plan). Atlanta used good underneath route combinations against Detroit’s Cover 2 and Cover 3 looks (something they haven’t always done this season) and consistently exploited the linebackers’ inability to defend Tony Gonzalez (who was brilliant as a route runner).

Lions O vs. Falcons D

The Falcons successfully attacked Detroit’s mediocre offensive line with a combination of disguised blitzes and A-gap crowding looks. This helped dictate pro-Falcons one-on-one mismatches for ends John Abraham and Ray Edwards against tackles Jeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus. More important, Matthew Stafford never quite got comfortable with all this. This is one example of the hidden ways a bankrupt rushing attack hinders an offense. Even with Jahvid Best out, the Lions may regret not running more in this game. Maurice Morris actually had a little success running out of the shotgun. Maybe it wouldn’t have mattered; aside from a few athletic Calvin Johnson plays, the Lions generated nothing with their wideouts.

 

Browns O vs. Seahawks D

Seattle’s entire defense played well, but it wasn’t exactly challenged. What’s worrisome is Cleveland’s inability to spread the field and play basic pass offense. Too much of the aerial attack is predicated on play-action and rollouts. That’s what you do when you want to simplify your quarterback’s reads and put minimal demands on his arm strength. The question is whether the Browns continue to employ this tactic because of Colt McCoy or because of their nonexistent speed at wide receiver.

Montario Hardesty caught some grief for gaining less than 100 yards on 33 carries. He wasn’t great in this game (he must learn to hit the hole earlier in the run and gain better balance by having a lower center of gravity), but the bigger issue was the lethargic play of guards Jason Pinkston, Shawn Lauvao (who left with a bruised knee) and John Greco (a big guy who was good north and south but poor east and west). One final note: Seattle’s Chris Clemons has been arguably the best all-around defensive end in the N.F.C. this season.

Seahawks O vs. Browns D

This game may prove damaging to Charlie Whitehurst’s career. Why would a team  want him as a starter after this? His long-term future as a backup may even be in doubt.  And this performance came against a very average defense, no less. Whitehurst did not make a bunch of bonehead mistakes, the way Rex Grossman did a week ago, but that was partly because he often could not even bring himself to pull the trigger. He had a tendency to fixate on a target before throwing. He left a lot of open receivers on the field. He had little sense for pocket movement. And, despite outstanding protection for much of the afternoon, he was wildly inaccurate, especially downfield.

Dolphins O vs. Broncos D

The story of this matchup was Denver’s successful blitzing. The entire Dolphins offense struggled against the blitz. The running backs were iffy in pickup; the receivers did not always spot hot route assignments; and quarterback Matt Moore did not consistently identify potential pass-rushers before the snap. The Broncos often blitzed a linebacker inside and brought a speedier player (either a defensive back or, in overtime, sensationally athletic strongside linebacker D.J. Williams) a half-beat after that outside. Miami’s passing game has been way out of sync the past few weeks. For Denver, two other things stood out: the speed and initial burst of Von Miller off the edge, and the energy and instincts of Brian Dawkins  in the box.

Andy Benoit is an N.F.L. analyst for CBSSports.com and founder of NFLTouchdown.com. He can be reached at andy.benoit@NFLTouchdown.com or @Andy_Benoit.

N.F.L. Week 6 Game Probabilities

My statistics disagree with the consensus favorites in only one matchup this weekend: Panthers versus  Falcons at Atlanta. It’s not surprising most people favor the home-team Falcons. Carolina is 1-4, coming off a 2-14 season, while Atlanta is 2-3, coming off a 13-3 season. But statistically they’re nearly identical teams, with one critical difference.

The table below lists the key predictive team stats: net yards per attempt, running success rate, interception rates, and penalty rates on both offense and defense, plus offensive fumble rates. Notice how similar the two teams are in most categories.

Both feature spectacularly poor pass defenses. The Panthers are better at running the ball, and the Falcons are a little better at stopping the run. But the most reliably consistent predictor of game outcomes is offensive net Yards Per Attempt (net YPA), and the Panthers are clearly better in that department. In fact, they’re about two standard deviations better. If you remember any of your high school statistics class, you’ll know that’s a big-time difference (disclaimer: not an official statistical term).

That difference is more than enough to overcome the Falcons’ home-field advantage, mathematically at least. Throw in Atlanta’s relatively weak opponent strength so far this season, and that’s why Carolina is your upset special this week, by a margin of 56 percent to 44 percent.

Here are all the game probabilities for Week 6.

Brian Burke, a former Navy pilot who has taken up the less dangerous hobby of N.F.L. statistical analysis, operates Advanced NFL Stats, a blog about football, math and human behavior.

Week 5 N.F.L. Matchups: Another Turning Point

Packers (4-0) at Falcons (2-2)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Line: Packers by 6.
Tramon Williams’s end-of-half interception return for the Packers against the Falcons in last year’s playoffs may be remembered as a turning point in N.F.L. history. The Falcons were the better team entering the game, and while the Packers held a 21-14 lead before the play, the Falcons were driving and appeared likely to score. Williams’s interception turned the game into a rout, and the Packers have been unbeatable ever since, while the Falcons have replaced them as the team with a young quarterback and lots of talent that cannot quite get its act together.
Of course, for some that turning point arrived a little late. “I’m really surprised that it kind of took him so long,” Brett Favre said of the three interminable years it took Aaron Rodgers to lead the Packers to the Super Bowl. Who knew that through all of those quasi-retirements, through his stints with the Jets and the Vikings, Favre was just impatiently waiting for Rodgers to close the deal? Favre did not sound as if  he was trying to insult Rodgers — he has simply lost the ability to compliment people who are not him — but teammates and analysts have rushed to Rodgers’s defense, which he does not really need.
It had been peaceful months since the last self-serving Favre rant. What took him so long? Pick: Packers

Saints (3-1) at Panthers (1-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Saints by 6.5.
The proper transitional form between terrible and great for an N.F.L. team is not “average,” but “interesting.” Average teams get stuck at average, or worse, get stuck in the N.F.C. West. Interesting teams, with great strengths but fascinating flaws, are usually on the fast track up or down. The Panthers are going up; the road down goes straight through Philadelphia.
The Panthers are interesting because Cam Newton has settled into his role as the league’s hottest prospect. His developing skills in the pocket make him more than just a scrambles-and-bombs playground passer, though the scrambles and bombs remain frequent and fun. Steve Smith has been rejuvenated by Newton’s presence and is averaging 22.1 yards per catch. The supporting cast — running backs Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, tight ends Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey — is deep and multi-talented. Defensively, the Panthers do not have much, but that keeps things entertaining.
The Saints are always interesting, except when they play the Jaguars, who bring the bland with them. The Panthers are no match for the Saints just yet, but they are now game for a 34-29 or 40-33 final score, which is the next best thing to winning after a year of watching Jimmy Clausen throw two-yard passes to Tony Fiammetta. Pick: Saints

Raiders (2-2) at Texans (3-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Texans by 6.
Raiders Coach Hue Jackson guaranteed this week that the Raiders would win the A.F.C. West. Boy, Joe Namath starts chirping, and suddenly everyone wants to be just like him. Jackson based his reasoning on the following facts: 1.) the Raiders are pretty good; 2.) the Broncos are committed to starting Kyle Orton until this entire generation of fans is too old to remember that they drafted Tim Tebow; 3.) the Chiefs cannot beat the Vikings by 5 points without their coach and quarterback nearly coming to blows on the sideline, and 4.) the Chargers’ 330-pound nose tackle Antonio Galay drives a Hello Kitty Smart Car, removing him as a potential threat.
The Texans have made no guarantees, despite the fact that they are lingering in the national spotlight longer than usual and have a Colts-free path to the A.F.C. South title. The Texans got some good news when they learned wide receiver Andre Johnson will miss a maximum of three games with a right hamstring injury that looked far worse when he crumpled to the ground, untouched, against the Steelers last week. Even better news for the Texans: they now have enough talent in other areas to survive three games without Johnson. Pick: Texans

Titans (3-1) at Steelers (2-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Steelers by 3.
Matt Hasselbeck is the new definition of cool. Who wants to be young, strapping and handsome like Jake Locker when you can look, sound and exhibit the overall athleticism of the front man of a Buffalo Springfield tribute band? Hasselbeck is the mentor quarterback general managers dream of when they venture onto the free-agent market in search of some rickety former starter who can impart Crash Davis wisdom to the first-round pick: a sage who still has his stuff, a drama-free knuckleballer who still gets some tough outs.
Let’s hope we have a few more weeks to enjoy Hasselbeck before he is injured by the shock waves emanating from the coin toss, or worse, by an opponent. The Steelers are smarting from their loss to the Texans, and they are not known for internalizing their frustration. They also have a habit of body-slamming Titans quarterbacks to the turf (see Vince Young in last season’s game). Linebacker James Harrison is out with an eye injury, but the Steelers still have plenty of pass rush power and pent-up frustration. Get warmed up, Locker. Just in case. Pick: Steelers

Jets (2-2) at Patriots (3-1)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Patriots by 9.
This short, buried, understated game capsule is our way of modulating the volume level on our national discourse. Think of it as a “Sounds of the Ocean” generator with a noise-cancelling function that makes all of the trash talk and bluster surrounding this game sound like the distant lapping of waves against a forgotten fishing pier. Are you serene yet? Good. No, that is not Antonio Cromartie, Plaxico Burress or Santonio Holmes you hear trying to bait the Patriots with senseless trash talk. It is three far-off seagulls cawing over a crushed oyster shell. Pick: Patriots

Eagles (1-3) at Bills (3-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Eagles by 2.5.
Las Vegas likes to bill itself as the wildest place on Earth, but it is really an old-fashioned, conservative town that still reveres the Rat Pack, the 20-ounce steak, and traditional powerhouse teams facing long-time doormats. That explains the Eagles as road favorites: it is an idea as current as a Fremont Street piano bar set list. Perhaps our friends in Vegas know that the Bills are starting a rookie left tackle (Chris Hairston, in place of injured Demetrius Bell) and that the Eagles, despite the panic that has set in during their three-game losing streak, have an overwhelming talent advantage and some easy-to-fix flaws. More likely, the gambling line is catering to those in the buffet line who think the Eagles are “due.” The Eagles are indeed due for something, though no one is sure quite what. Pick: Eagles

Chiefs (1-3) at Colts (0-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Colts by 2.5.
How to win football games, the Chiefs way. Step 1: Play the Vikings. Step 2: Engage in a coach-versus-quarterback shouting match on the sideline in the middle of the game, because Todd Haley is a longtime proponent of the “succeed despite me” school of management. Step 3: Hope Ryan Succop kicks field goals from 51 and 54 yards. Repeat until December. As of this week, Peyton Manning is officially retired from these game previews until he does something more interesting than provide reaction shots from the coaches’ booth. If all he can now do is make uncomfortable-looking faces, he should join the cast of “The Office.” Pick: Colts

Bengals (2-2) at Jaguars (1-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Jaguars by 2.5.
It’s the non-Newtonian edition of the quarterback rookie battle, with Jacksonville’s Blaine Gabbert and Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton battling for second place in our hearts. While Dalton putters through his weeks, launching occasional bombs to his fellow rookie A.J. Green and doing his best to keep things close, Gabbert tries to wrap his impressionable young mind around Jack Del Rio’s pretzel logic. Gabbert threw 24 passes in the first half against the Saints last week, with the star running back Maurice Jones-Drew carrying the ball just three times in a neat inversion of Jaguars philosophy, cosmic balance and common sense. Then, late in the fourth quarter with the Jaguars trailing by 13 points, Del Rio reintroduced the running game, calling four handoffs to Jones-Drew on one drive. Gabbert would call the former Jaguars quarterback David Garrard for advice, but he does not want to get Garrard’s hopes up by making the phone ring. Pick: Bengals

Cardinals (1-3) at Vikings (0-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Vikings by 2.5.
The winning quarterback in this game gets to be the Eagles starter in 2009. Opposing defenses are not the only ones ganging up on Donovan McNabb: old-time quarterbacks have gotten into the act. Joe Theismann said that the Vikings should start Christian Ponder. Fran Tarkenton said the Vikings should start Christian Ponder. Brett Favre thinks Ponder wonders why he has not brought the Vikings a Super Bowl yet. Joe Namath was too busy ripping the Jets to offer an opinion, and Ron Jaworski may have said something, but we still have the seven-second delay button pressed. McNabb is aging so rapidly that by next week he may start criticizing himself. Pick: Cardinals

Seahawks (1-3) at Giants (3-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Giants by 9.5.
The Giants won their last two meetings with the Seahawks by a combined score of 85-13, but the Seahawks have a new weapon: the no-huddle offense. The Seahawks increased their tempo in the second half against the Falcons, scoring three touchdowns in a near-comeback victory. What makes the no-huddle click for the Seahawks? “I guess it takes the thinking out of it for us,” quarterback Tarvaris Jackson told The Seattle Post-Intelligencer. “I know for me, being a young player, I tend to think a little too much.” When your 28-year old, sixth-year quarterback claims that he is young and needs to think less, you have problems that a change of pace are not going to solve. Pick: Giants

Buccaneers (3-1) at 49ers (3-1)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: 49ers by 3.
This is a battle between the league’s two ugly-win champions. The Buccaneers committed 14 penalties on Monday night, had a touchdown and a field goal nullified by penalties, and played the first half as if they had one eye on the Rangers-Rays game. The 49ers played two impressive quarters against the Eagles, but the previous week’s 13-8 slog against the Bengals was much more in character. The 49ers have not yet scored in the first quarter this season, while the Buccaneers have just 3 first-quarter points in their last three games, so it is safe to tune in late. Pick: Buccaneers

Chargers (3-1) at Broncos (1-3)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Chargers by 4.
John Fox finally rolled out the Tim Tebow Wild Horse package last week — for one play. The Broncos lost a yard, and Tebow disappeared again. “We did it once and we lost yardage,” Fox said after the game. “It didn’t prove to be beneficial, so we went in a different direction.” Fox also took a multivitamin before the game, but since he did not feel instantly better, he stopped taking them, right after removing all of the insulation from his home because it did not provide immediate energy savings. Tebow resurfaced on the reality television program “The Biggest Loser,” where he offered this advice: “Hard work beats talent when talent does not work as hard.” Given only one chance per month, though, both hard work and talent are likely to lose a yard. Pick: Chargers

Bears (2-2) at Lions (4-0)
Monday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Lions by 5.5.
This is the week that the Lions finally fake the pass to Calvin Johnson at the goal line, then hand off to Jahvid Best. Best walks untouched into the end zone as 11 defenders (12, if Rob Ryan has any say) claw and drag Johnson to the ground. Then, Ryan and the three other defensive coordinators who allowed two touchdowns per week to Johnson get to call Lovie Smith and say they told him so. Pick: Lions

Six N.F.L. Contenders, and the Way They Have Disappointed

Six of the presumptive favorites to win the Super Bowl had flaws on full display on Sunday.

For now, Green Bay looks to be the class of the league, and fans of unbeaten Buffalo and Detroit are surely proud of their teams. But four others teams — the two franchises with the best records in 2010, the only team to make the conference championship game in each of the past two seasons, and the so-called dream team — experienced varying degrees of distress. The defenses of  Rex Ryan and Bill Belichick were punctured like never before.

No Hiding the Patriots’ Defensive Woes

The Bills have now staged improbable comebacks in consecutive weeks, following up a rout of Kansas City on opening day. But the big story out of Buffalo wasn’t necessarily about the Bills.  It might have been about New England, whose defense may torpedo its chances.

Buffalo defeated New England despite falling into a 21-0 hole, a sentence that Bostonians probably never thought they would read. Under Belichick, the Pats had been 53-0 when leading by 21 or more points. In the Belichick era, the Patriots were 91-4 when jumping out to a 14-point lead at any point in the game. Belichick made his reputation on the defensive side of the ball, but he’s never coached a team as one-sided as the 2011 Patriots appear to be.

Chad Henne threw for over 400 yards in the opener against the Patriots. In New England’s game against San Diego, six of the Chargers’ nine drives went for at least 50 yards, and two of the other three might have done the same if they hadn’t ended in fumbles. Patriots victories allowed the team to minimize the reality of those defensive struggles, but the defense can’t avoid the scrutiny now.

New England has allowed 1,406 yards in the team’s first three games, the fifth-worst mark since 1970. But yardage totals aside, there’s a reason this loss feels different: Tom Brady and the Patriots  don’t lose shootouts to anyone but the Colts. During the Brady/Belichick era, the Pats had been 61-2 when scoring at least 30 points, with both losses coming to Peyton Manning and Indianapolis. Make that 61-3. The Patriots’ video-game offensive numbers had everything thinking it was 2007 all over again; the better comparison may end up being the 2000 Rams. That St. Louis squad passed for more yards than any team in league history, but the defense (ranked last in points allowed) prevented a Super Bowl repeat.

Jets Flunk First Leg of Road Trip

Rex Ryan is known for having elite defensive units. With Ryan, that  starts by stopping the run. Against the Raiders, the Jets’ defense looked anything but elite. In his first 34 games with the Jets, Rex Ryan’s defense never allowed more than 153 rushing yards (a mark hit by the Saints in 2009). The worst the Jets had been outrushed came in Week 3 of the 2009 season, when Tennessee gained 44 more rushing yards than the Jets. The Raiders rushed for 234 yards and outrushed New York by 134 yards, margins incomprehensible before Sunday.

During Ryan’s 10 seasons as an assistant in Baltimore, the high-water mark was 207 rushing yards gained by the 2008 Giants. Sunday was as unusual for New England as it was for Ryan, who has never had a worse performance against the run. An ugly interception by Mark Sanchez and an abysmal day by Antonio Cromartie were part of the problem, but inconsistent play from those two is something the Jets have endured before.  The run defense had almost never been the culprit.

Unlike the Patriots, the Jets appear to have the horses on defense to earn the benefit of the doubt. The only other game under Ryan when the run defense was primarily responsible for a loss came against Miami and the Wildcat in 2009. The Jets responded in the rematch by holding Miami to 52 rushing yards. Unfortunately for the Jets, there seems to be little margin for error in the next two weeks, with games in Baltimore and New England. The Ravens gained 553 yards of offense against the Rams, the second-highest yardage total by any team this season. Numbers one, two, and four on that list came at the hands Tom Brady and the Patriots. If the Jets still have questions about their defense two weeks from now, they may be staring at a 2-3 record.

Is That a Doughnut or the Eagles’ Defense?

A loss to the Giants doesn’t spell doom for Philadelphia: in both 2000 and 2003, Andy Reid’s Eagles made the playoffs after a 1-2 start. Philadelphia started 2-2 in 2010, and 2-2 is likely  for this edition, with San Francisco on tap this weekend (after edging the Bengals, the 49ers are now 2-21 in road games against non-N.F.C. West competition since 2007). Philadelphia can still realize all of its hopes and dreams, but there is no way to hide the warts anymore. In both losses, the three biggest worries for the Birds took center stage:

The Eagles can give any team in the league a serious challenge. But Philadelphia doesn’t have the look of a dominant 13-3 team that’s going to take the N.F.L. by storm. The dream is still attainable — Philadelphia could get hot at the right moment, Vick could be healthy in December and January, and the right set of playoff opponents could find their way on the Eagles’ schedule. But this is a flawed team, and its struggles in short-yardage situations against the Giants looked more like frustrating Andy Reid teams from the Donovan McNabb era than any sort of dream team.

Falcons Regress to Mean

After an opening day loss in Pittsburgh, the 2010 Falcons went on a 12-1 run in which they effectively clinched the top seed. Nine times in that 13-game stretch, the Falcons entered the fourth quarter leading or trailing by less than a touchdown; Atlanta went 9-0 in those games.

Had the team gone a more reasonable 5-4, the Falcons would have been a 9-7 team on the outside looking in. Instead, good fortune brought them the conference’s best record. Through three games this season, Atlanta has been trailing by 24, 10 and 13 points entering the third quarter. If not for a Michael Vick injury in Week 2, the Falcons could be staring at an 0-3 record. Atlanta wasn’t nearly as good as its record last year, but the Falcons aren’t going to be trailing by double digits every weekend this year either. Expect something more in the middle, but hopes of a Super season in Atlanta have seemed too rosy from the start. Atlanta’s pass defense is still the team’s Achilles’ heel, while the pass offense isn’t nearly as good as many seem to think it is. Since the start of last season, the Falcons rank just 24th in net yards per pass attempt.

Dishonorable Mention

The Chargers at home against the Chiefs was supposed to be a blowout; instead, San Diego was holding its breath until the game’s final minute. A slow September start is cliche for San Diego: the last five Septembers, the Chargers have been favored in 14 of 17 games, but have a record of  8-9 while going 5-11-1 against the spread. San Diego is 2-1 but has been underwhelming in both wins.

The big worry here isn’t that “it’s happening again” but rather that the malaise has spread to the passing offense. Even during ghosts of September past, Philip Rivers was fantastic. This year, Rivers has thrown a pair of interceptions each week while his big play and efficiency numbers have dropped.

Perhaps all the team needs is a healthy Antonio Gates, but the Chargers have looked more conservative on offense this season. According to Footballguys.com, San Diego has thrown 38 percent of its passes toward running backs, compared with 28 percent in 2008 to 2010. Mike Tolbert leads the team in receptions while Ryan Mathews is second in receiving yards. This may be a reflection of a small sample size rather than a shift in philosophy, but it’s worth keeping an eye on how the Chargers stretch the field over the next few weeks. San Diego led the league in yards per pass completion in both 2009 and 2010, but rank in the bottom half of the league in that metric three weeks into the season.

Pittsburgh defeated the Colts, but only by kicking  a field goal in the final seconds. A close victory over the lowly Colts (Pittsburgh was a 10.5 point favorite) doesn’t hide the scary issues in Pittsburgh:

Four Super Bowl hopefuls — the Patriots, Jets, Eagles and Falcons — had the spotlight shine on their weaknesses this past Sunday. Two other teams escaped with wins thanks to the scheduling gods. For all six teams, this Sunday represents a chance to right the ship. New England (Oakland), the Jets (Baltimore) and Pittsburgh (Houston) will need to to fix their flaws to avoid a two-game losing streak; all go on the road against tough A.F.C. teams. The Chargers (Miami), the Eagles (San Francisco) and the Falcons (@Seattle) have a chance to show they won’t play down to their level of competition. The odds say that at least a couple of the teams scratching their heads today will be pulling out their hair a week from now.

Chase Stuart contributes to the Pro-Football-Reference.com blog and to Footballguys.com.