Another Poor Showing by Sanchez

A capsule look at the Jets’ 17-13 loss to Denver.

KEY PLAY BY JETS

It will be forgotten after Tim Tebow’s final drive …. but the Jets’ first touchdown came in an unorthodox manner — a fumble recovery by guard Matt Slauson. The play that ushered them to the doorstep was helped by a textbook block by Brandon Moore, who cleared space for Joe McKnight on his 12-yard screen pass to the 1. Slauson became the first Jets offensive lineman to score on a fumble recovery since Randy Rasmussen on Oct. 8, 1972.

NOTABLE NUMBER: 5
That is how many Denver possessions began in Jets territory, resulting in 3 points. As the Jets hoped, their defense largely stuffed the run, forcing Tebow into passing situations. He overthrew some passes and underthrew others, but his receivers also struggled to gain separation against the cornerbacks. After going 3 for 3 on the opening drive, Tebow went 6 for 17, but scored the winning touchdown.

TALKING POINT
What do the Jets do now after another ineffective performance by Mark Sanchez?

Rate This Jets Loss

A little free therapy for Jets fans … (It’s best to let it all out.)

What one play infuriated you the most from Thursday night’s loss at Denver?
(Non-Jets fans can play along, especially if you felt that the better team didn’t win.)

Mac from Atlanta, a Jets fan and Fifth Down commenting stalwart, gets us started. In another post, he pointed out two plays – the Mark Sanchez interception-turns-into-touchdown and this one:

The Jets’ second-to-last drive, where they had the ball at midfield and had a chance to run out most of the clock. After a short run and an incompletion: on 3rd and long as the Jets lined up, Brandon Moore pointed out an overload blitz from the right. Sanchez did not recognize it and adjust, rushed the throw and it went incomplete. Poor awareness and lack of adjustment meant a quick 3 and out. Granted those were only two plays, but to me they symbolize the problems with the offense this season.

Extra point Were does this game rank among the worst regular-season losses of the Rex Ryan era? It seems to be fairly competitive in that category with the blowout loss at New England last season (humiliating but the Jets were on their way to an 11-5 record) and the defeat at home to Atlanta the year before (after which Ryan incorrectly declared the Jets’  season over).

Thursday Matchup: Jets at Broncos

Jets (5-4) at Broncos (4-5), 8:20 p.m. Eastern, NFL Network and Ch. 11 in New York area
Line: Jets by 6.

The Broncos won, 17-10, last week against the Chiefs, an opponent that had lost by scores of 41-7, 48-3, and 31-3 (to the Dolphins) this season. The Broncos netted just 312 yards of offense, and their quarterback, Tim Tebow, completed just two of his eight passes. When running backs Willis McGahee (hamstring, questionable for Thursday) and Knowshon Moreno (knee, out) were injured, Coach John Fox elected to give the third-stringer Lance Ball 30 carries, with Spencer Larsen, a converted linebacker, taking 5 more handoffs as a change of pace. The Broncos elected to run 10 times on third down with more than 4 yards to go, converting just one of those plays.

It takes some warping of reality and splintering of rational thought to watch a team hand off to an ex-linebacker almost as often as it passes the ball, surrender on nearly every third down and score 17 points against an awful opponent, and reinterpret all of this as a sign of its quarterback’s singular greatness.

But ignoring the obvious is the American way. The Broncos are not trying to hide an inept passer behind child-proofed game plans that can work only against terrible defenses. Instead, they are ushering in a new era of running-based football behind the paradigm-shattering talents of a player who hands off like no other.

Fox even dismissed the need for a passing game this week. This is offense based upon the withholding of success, austerity by design, and Fox is making a great show of being thrilled with it.

Of course, there’s a chance that the simplest solution is the correct one: the Broncos have gutted out close wins against bad opponents but they will collapse against a strong defense, and option-style gadget plays have a limited N.F.L. shelf life. But then, even Occam’s razor may be no match for Tebow Mania.

Pick: Jets
(Pick does not reflect the betting line)

Jets at Broncos: Matchup to Watch

Jets (5-4) at Broncos (4-5), 8:30 p.m. Eastern Thursday

Matchup to Watch: Tim Tebow vs. Jets’ defense

One can only imagine the defensive schemes Rex Ryan has concocted to foil Denver’s read-option offense, which ran the ball 55 times — and attempted but 8 passes — in Sunday’s victory in Kansas City. The Jets at times deployed seven defensive backs to thwart New England’s passing game; Ryan might send seven down linemen against Tim Tebow. Maybe that’s an exaggeration. But it will be a challenge for the Jets, who had a short week to prepare for a peculiar but effective style that suits Tebow. Jets safety Jim Leonhard said, “As inconsistent as he is throwing the football, all of a sudden he’ll make a throw where you look at it and go, ‘Wow, that was impressive.’ ”

Number to Watch: 22

The combined sacks (8) and quarterback knockdowns (14) amassed by Broncos linebacker Von Miller — the most in the N.F.L., according to ProFootballFocus.com. The Jets’ pass protection was dreadful against New England, yielding five sacks and nine hits of Mark Sanchez, against a team with a suspect pass rush. The Broncos, with the dynamic duo of Miller and Elvis Dumervil — dubbed “Batman and Robin” by Miller — wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks. Sustained pressure against Sanchez, who showed little sense of pocket presence Sunday night, could spell doom.

Quotation of the Week

“Well, it doesn’t make much sense. It’d be like buying a Ferrari and pouring sugar in the gas tank.”

Broncos Coach JOHN FOX, when asked whether he and John Elway, the team’s vice president for football operations, did not want Tim Tebow to succeed because they did not draft him.

Week 10 Live: Jets-Patriots Win Probability

The Fifth Down will track the win probability for the Jets and the Patriots throughout Sunday night’s showdown at MetLife Stadium. We did it for the first meeting between the teams in Week 5, but a quick review for those unfamiliar with the metric from Advanced NFL Stats.

Win probability measures just that — the probability that each team will win the game at any moment. This, of course, varies with the twists and turns of each game, so an early lead raises the odds a team will win, but a turnover or a big play can turn it around.

The Jets have to deal with the Patriots first, but their win probability against the Broncos on Thursday night will be an interesting talking point this week. The Broncos won at 1 p.m. on Sunday. The Jets are playing the Sunday night game, then have a short week to prepare for Tim Tebow, who earlier in the day won for the third time in four games.

Preparing for the Broncos these days is like preparing for an Oklahoma high school team; Tebow completed only two of his eight passes Sunday. But he does pose his own brand of tricky problems. And while he hasn’t exactly beaten the ’85 Bears — his three recent wins came against the Dolphins, the Raiders and the Chiefs — he has been good enough to be taken seriously.

The question is: will the Jets do that, and will the short week work against them?

The Jets takes the opening kickoff the length of the field, stall at the 6 and then see Nick Folk miss a 24-yard field goal attempt. Their win probability instantly swings from 67 percent to 48, even though the score never changed.

Two Stephen Gostkowski field goals are all that separate the teams, who offensive stats are remarkably similar.

Jamaal Westerman gets the Jets on the board with a two-run homer safety. Brady had no chance there; Westerman doesn’t get credit for the sack, since Brady got off a left-handed pass. But intentional grounding out of the end zone is an automatic safety. So now the Jets will get the ball back with a chance to turn things around before halftime.

The Jets have actually outgained the Patriots so far, and should go into the half with a two-to-one edge in time of possession if they manage this last drive right. If they manage it into points, they’ll be even happier.

Happier, certainly, than Brady (7 of 16, 129 yards) looks right now.

I realize that Brady is Brady, but he’s not Brady tonight. At least not so far.Mon Nov 14 02:17:53 via webBen Shpigel
benshpigel

The Jet’s win probability surged over 50 percent for the first time since their field-goal miss when they grabbed the lead on Mark Sanchez’s 2-yard touchdown run, but Brady led the Patriots right back down the field to grab it back on an 18-yard touchdown catch by Rob Gronkowski.

Halftime: Patriots 13, Jets 9.

The Jets are down by 7 points. But it feels like more, no?Mon Nov 14 03:46:24 via webBen Shpigel
benshpigel

Yes, it does. And as I type those words, the Patriots pick off a tipped pass.

Gronkowski’s second touchdown catch extends New England’s lead to 14 points and pushes its win probability to 94 percent with four minutes left in the third quarter.

Guess the algorithm didn’t see the highlights of the Patriots’ fourth-quarter disaster against the Giants last week.

Plaxico Burress catches a 7-yard score but Deion Branch restores New England’s two-touchdown lead with an 8-yarder. It’s getting away from the Jets now; with eight minutes left, they’re entering flatline territory on the chart.

So the Patriots sweep the season series. What’s the probability these teams haven’t seen the last of each other this year? Pretty good.

Third-Rate Showing for Jets

A capsule look at the Jets’ 37-16 loss to the Patriots:

Notable Numbers: 5 for 13

That was the Jets’ success rate on third down, a poor showing for a team that thought it had solved its woes with three consecutive games of efficiency. The Jets had converted 20 of 39 third downs during their three-game winning streak — 14 of 24 over the last two — but New England thwarted their first five chances, preventing them from getting into an offensive groove.

Key Play/Performance
It was bad enough for the Jets that Joe McKnight, one of their top special-teams players, muffed a punt deep in his own territory. But it was worse still that they missed several chances to fall on the loose ball, including Donald Strickland, who landed on top of it before it somehow squirted loose. Consider it an opportunity missed on a night full of them.

Talking Point
Can the Jets move past this crushing loss and recover in time for a swift turnaround Thursday night against the resurgent Broncos?

Rex Ryan Transcript: An Apology to Jets Fans

Jets Coach Rex Ryan, who will play a Patriots fan in a coming Adam Sandler movie, sounded like a fan of the Patriots when he said early Monday morning: “They beat us twice. We think we’re as good as they are, but clearly, we’re not.”

The full transcript of Ryan’s remarks to reporters are below, as provided by the Jets. Among other things, he apologized to fans; he took responsibility for a Mark Sanchez timeout that Ryan had called “the stupidest play in football history” during a halftime interview; and he jokingly suggested that he should just declare the Jets’ playoff chances over — because it worked once before.

HEAD COACH REX RYAN, TRANSCRIPT
We wanted to win this game in the worst way. You’re not going to beat many teams when you make the mistakes that we made. We’ve been down this road before. I apologize to our fans. They were ready to go just like I thought we were. It’s disappointing, but we can’t dwell on it. We have four days until we play Denver, who is playing well. We have to put this game behind us as fast as we can.
On the Jets defensive struggles against the Patriots up-tempo offense…
There were a couple of times where we didn’t match up properly, and they threw a couple of quick passes. That’s what that team does. You have to be alert. We never got the matchups we wanted, so you have to give them a lot of credit.
On if he was stunned by the mistakes…
I thought we’d play a lot better. I thought we had really improved, I really did. I think we did improve, but when you make those types of mistakes — you fumble a punt, you have a poor timeout … time management was an absolutely critical error. That’s my responsibility. I own that one. You make that many mistakes against that team, there’s no chance.
On his halftime interview with NBC when he said a timeout before the half was “the worst play in NFL history”…
That’s my responsibility. That’s all it is, my responsibility.
On how it’s his responsibility…
I’m responsible for everything that happens with this football team. That’s my responsibility and it’s my fault. I own that.
On the pass protection…
When you’re up all those scores, you tee off on the quarterback. That’s exactly what they did. We’re trying to make big plays downfield, and that’s what happens. That defense is a lot better than people give them credit for. They’re 32nd in the league and all that, but when you get up a lot of scores on people, you’re going to give up yards. Clearly, we have to do a much better job protecting the quarterback.
On the feeling on the bench after the first drive ended with a missed field goal…
Those things happen, but that was the kind of night it was. As great as Nick has been, we missed a field goal, a chip shot. He’s been tremendous all season. He missed a 50-yard kick in a crosswind [at Buffalo], but other than that, he hasn’t missed a kick all year. It just seems that’s what happened to us. It just snowballed.
On how the Patriots drove 80 yards for a touchdown before halftime…
Easy – that’s the New England Patriots out there. They had two timeouts. They did a great job and executed. That’s what that team can do.
On matchups difficulties with Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski…
About 6’7″, I guess. That was one of the issues. The kid makes a lot of plays. He’s a factor in the red zone. You have to watch [Wes] Welker. They have a lot of weapons. We tried to match them up in different zones, we tried to bracket sometimes, but the young man did a nice job of catching the football.
On if the defensive play-calling system will change…
No, we’ll do what we always do. It’ll be the way we’ve done things for years here. [Defensive coordinator] Mike Pettine is a great football coach, it’s not his fault.
On if the division is still attainable…
It looks doubtful right now. What am I going to say? Maybe I should guarantee the fact that we’re out of it. The last time I did that, we made the playoffs. Yeah, we don’t have a chance.
On the difficulty of playing against lesser known players whose skill sets aren’t known…
You have a pretty good idea. They did a nice job. They’re a great football team. When you have No. 12 back there, I don’t care who else you’ve got. You see the difference a great quarterback makes in this league. You just have to look down the road at Indy. This guy’s an amazing player. You have Vince Wilfork in there. You have a lot of great players on that team. They’ve done a nice job. James Ihedigbo, I thought, played extremely well as well today.
On the play of Sanchez…
He was inconsistent, like the play of the rest of the team.
On the disappointment that the Patriots will likely win the AFC East…
Well, they have to get past Buffalo, too. It’s tough. They beat us twice. We think we’re as good as they are, but clearly, we’re not. We weren’t today, that’s for sure.
On the challenge of playing a game on Thursday…
The fact that we just got beat like we got beat, it’s probably a good thing, so we can’t dwell on it. That’s the thing that we have to do – we have to move on. We have to move on quickly. Denver’s playing really well on defense. With [Broncos QB Tim] Tebow, to be honest with you, I have to watch him. I don’t know what he presents, but he’s been running. They’ve been running the ball no matter who’s at tailback. We’ve got to get ready to go down there. With the way Denver’s playing, we know it’s going to be a tough game, but we have to get this thing behind us and go play Denver.
On Jets RB LaDainian Tomlinson’s injury…
I’m not sure. I think it’s a knee, but I wasn’t real sure. I don’t know the severity of it.

Mark Sanchez did not try to defend his decision to take a timeout before the end of the first half: “I just have to manage the clock better and that’s a rookie mistake, you can’t do that in your third year. So that really put our defense in a tough spot.”

Patriots at Jets: Matchup to Watch

Patriots (5-3) at Jets (5-3), 8:20 p.m. Eastern, NBC

Matchup to Watch: Mark Sanchez vs. Patriots’ defense

A major beneficiary of the Jets’ improved rushing offense has been Sanchez, who is passing less but succeeding more. During the last four games, his completion rate was 60.7 percent and he had seven touchdown passes, with two interceptions. For the Jets to win on Sunday, they do not need Sanchez — nor will they ask him — to shred the Patriots’ dreadful pass defense, as did the victorious quarterbacks Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning. They just need him to play efficiently, which is what he has done over their three-game winning streak.

Number to Watch: 152
That is how many rushing yards the Patriots totaled Oct. 9, taking advantage of the Jets’ extra defensive backs inserted to protect against the pass. “They ran the ball more effectively than obviously we wanted them to or even expected them to,” Coach Rex Ryan said. Still wary of Tom Brady, the Jets are likely to use a similar strategy, when they will see just how much their emphasis on alignment, assignment and technique has paid off.

Quotation of the Week

‘It’s one of those deals where they know that we know that we know that they know that we know.’

Coach BILL BELICHICK of the Patriots, when asked about the challenges of preparing for a team they played five weeks earlier.

Week 10 Matchups: The Rivalry Everyone Is Talking About

Patriots (5-3) at Jets (5-3)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Line: Jets by 1.
The seventh annual Patriots Dynasty Deathwatch is under way. The team has lost two straight games, prompting the usual hand-wringing about eras ending and la belle époque coming to a melancholy fin. We have now endured over a half-decade of laments about how a team that routinely wins 11 to 16 games per year is not what it used to be, simultaneously criticizing Bill Belichick for his recent personnel decisions and genuflecting before the altar of his past accomplishments. No wonder otherwise sane people ardently root against this team.
The Patriots’ need to prolong their dramatic swoon to William Shatner lengths, coupled with the usual noisy Jets’ chest thumping, has turned this into the most torturously overblown rivalry in the N.F.L. Unless you are a lifelong Jets or Patriots fan, you feel you have been clamped to your seat, eyelids taped open, neck immobilized and forced to watch. It’s less a battle of two great teams (both are highly flawed this season) than a battle of attention hounds of differing styles. The Jets should win easily — the Patriots have only one starting-caliber cornerback to handle three very good Jets receivers — but “let us again bid fond farewell to the glorious Patriots” conversations that will dominate the following week make it almost not worth the trouble. Pick: Jets.

Lions (6-2) at Bears (5-3)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Bears by 2.
Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh had a private meeting with Commissioner Roger Goodell last week in which Goodell reportedly clarified the N.F.L.’s rules regarding unnecessary roughness. Suh was later seen walking down Park Avenue with his hair singed and pupils dilated, like Charlton Heston coming down from Mount Sinai in “The Ten Commandments.” Suh is now the only person on earth who understands the N.F.L.’s rules regarding unnecessary roughness. Apparently, it is not some arbitrary foul based upon a referee’s personal interpretation of unenforceable, over-legislated mandates, sometimes coaxed by convincing method writhing by the quarterback. It only appears that way to the unenlightened. Goodell should meet with all of us, one by one, until everyone understands: the guy who runs your fantasy league next week, then Brian Baldinger, then finally Michael Vick, who will learn about the exceptions that apply only to him.
The Suh summit was well timed: the Bears and the Lions combined for 26 penalties in their October meeting, a few of them caused by the exuberance of Suh’s teammates and Jay Cutler’s pro wrestling reaction to every brush on the elbow. The Bears’ offensive line has solidified since that penalty-marred mess, but if Suh spreads his message of peace to his teammates, the Bears will not benefit from the 15-yard freebies the Lions have been handing out all year. Pick: Lions.

Saints (6-3) at Falcons (5-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Even.
To motivate his team after an embarrassing loss to the Rams, Sean Payton distributed red baseball bats with “Buccaneers” written on them to his players last week. The message, according to linebacker Jo-Lonn Dunbar: “Be physical, bring the wood and hit somebody.’’ The hidden message: Payton has far too much time to think of things like this while hobbling around on crutches. Soon, he will accuse Raymond Burr of burying his wife in the flower garden. Les batons rouge worked in Louisiana, but then everything has; the Saints are 4-0 at home but 2-3 on the road.
The Falcons’ defeat of the Colts last week was so easy and dull that even the referees wanted to hurry things along. “That’s the end of the fourth quarter,” Mike Carey said at the end of the third quarter, thinking wishfully. The Falcons have regained their ability to win in methodical, uninteresting ways over the last three games, but their matchups with the Saints are usually more compelling: the last three games between the teams have been decided by a field goal. Or, as Payton now calls them, three-run home runs. Pick: Saints.

Texans (6-3) at Buccaneers (4-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Texans by 3.
Buccaneers Coach Raheem Morris sent the speedy backup quarterback Josh Johnson onto the field on third-and-4 just before halftime against the Saints while trailing, 14-0. The entire Saints defense, most of the fans and even nearby wildlife sniffed out potential Wildcat-like tomfoolery — the replay shows cornerback Jabari Greer ignoring his receiver to zero in on Johnson — and the telegraphed quarterback sweep gained just one yard. Morris shrugged off criticism of the decision at his news conference. “It didn’t work, so it was a bad idea,” he said. “If it had worked, it would have been great.” Yes, it would have been the wisest decision to give a player his first action in three weeks by making him execute a poorly-designed play that everyone knows is coming in a critical situation ever made.
The Buccaneers also signed the serial loafer Albert Haynesworth this week, just hours after he was released by the Patriots. Haynesworth is the perfect weapon against the Texans’ cut-blocking strategy. Texans blockers will dive to the ground to cut block only to find Haynesworth already there, curled up and fast asleep. Pick: Texans.

Giants (6-2) at 49ers (7-1)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: 49ers by 3 .
Remember linebackers? They were huge, angry men who stuffed running plays, sacked quarterbacks, intimidated opponents and captured the imagination of fans with their athleticism and barely-controlled aggression. The linebacker went extinct in the northeastern United States when Antonio Pierce retired, but San Francisco has a thriving colony of them. The All-Pro Patrick Willis is the one you know about, but NaVorro Bowman (71 tackles), Ahmad Brooks (five sacks), the rookie Aldon Smith (six and a half sacks off the bench) and Parys Haralson (three forced fumbles) are all making their mark. They are coached by the defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who developed the great Dome Patrol Saints linebackers of the late 1980s, and all but Smith received early-career training from Mike Singletary, who was a samurai. Their great linebacking corps is one of several reasons the Niners have become the only carnivores in the N.F.C. West petting zoo, and it gives them an advantage over the Giants when playing physical punt-and-pin football. Pick: 49ers.

Steelers (6-3) at Bengals (6-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Steelers by 3.
Seeing the Bengals atop the A.F.C. North standings, with the Steelers third, creates a feeling of dislocation; it’s the kind of thing the hero of a science fiction novel notices in the newspaper before realizing he has traveled to a parallel universe. (Look at the A.F.C. South standings and you will swear you have slipped into “A Sound of Thunder.”) The Bengals have gotten where they are by being bad at nothing, which in the N.F.L. this year counts much more than being great at anything. Offense, run defense, pass defense, special teams — the Bengals are adequate in all areas, despite their reliance on rookies like Andy Dalton and A.J. Green and injuries to key players like tight end Jermaine Gresham and linebacker Rey Maualuga. The Bengals have also gutted out close wins against welterweights like the Titans and the Bills when not snacking on the Colts or the Seahawks. They face the Steelers and the Ravens three times in the next four weeks, so the divisional standings may soon return to their Earth Prime alignment. Pick: Steelers.

Broncos (3-5) at Chiefs (4-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Chiefs by 3.
It is surprising what people find surprising these days. The Broncos unveiled a “choice option” wrinkle in their offense last week, something every 10-year-old video gamer probably installed the moment he  inserted Tim Tebow into the starting lineup and began mashing buttons. It’s a simple play — Tebow either hands off from the shotgun or keeps the ball and runs, depending on the defensive formation — and an obvious tactic for a fast quarterback, but the Raiders reacted as if they were somehow unaware of Tebow’s skill set. Defenders ignored the threat of a Tebow run, then slipped while chasing him; Raiders coordinators adjusted too late to a strategy they should have anticipated during their weekly preparation. Tebow boosters believe they have found the secret to his success: simply stick with these collegiate tactics and wait for the Lombardi Trophy to arrive. The real secret uncovered last Sunday? The Raiders’ defense is not very smart. Pick: Chiefs.

Cardinals (2-6) at Eagles (3-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Eagles by 14.
How will Philadelphia fans react to the return of Kevin Kolb, who ruled the city like a king from July 26 to Sept. 12, 2010? Will they cheer? Boo? Be too busy in the concession lines to care? Kolb will not even play: he was still in a protective boot in midweek, so John Skelton (who stayed out of trouble while the Cardinals special teams came back to beat the lowly Rams) gets another start. At least Kolb gets to hobble around on a familiar sideline. Pick: Eagles.

Titans (4-4) at Panthers (2-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Panthers by 3.
The Panthers’ first-year coach, Ron Rivera, thinks that his team incurs extra penalties because he has not yet earned a reputation around the league. “I feel as a first-year head coach you’re not getting the calls that you would like,” he said Monday. “Certain coaches do get a little more toward their way.” The fact that receiver Legedu Naanee has a habit of grabbing defenders in the open field — he has four holding penalties, four more than most wide receivers commit in a season — may have more to do with it than Rivera’s inexperience. Titans cornerback Cortland Finnegan was voted the league’s third-dirtiest player in a Sporting News player survey, behind Ndamukong Suh and James Harrison. Remember when Bugs Bunny learned that the bounty for a rabbit was just two cents and went on a crime spree, sawing Florida loose and filling the Grand Canyon? Finnegan is capable of similar deviltry Sunday, unless Naanee grabs him. Pick: Panthers.

Redskins (3-5) at Dolphins (1-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Dolphins by 3.
It’s not that the Redskins do not believe in rebuilding; it’s just that they do not know the meaning of the word. “I’m not even sure what you mean by rebuilding,” Mike Shanahan said Monday. That did not stop him from using the word to explain why he was initially reluctant to hire his son Kyle as offensive coordinator. “I’m the one who told Kyle not to come,” he said. “I said we’re going to have to rebuild this football team, starting on offense.” Oh, so the Redskins are rebuilding, or trying to. Or are they? “Now, with the draft, free agency, getting some young players playing as second-teamers, and they’re getting a chance to see what they can do,” Shanahan said. “Now if that’s what you call rebuilding, then we’re rebuilding.” In other words, communications and long-range planning in Washington have risen to their usual standards. Pick: Dolphins.

Rams (1-7) at Browns (3-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Browns by 2.
This week, the Rams force three Browns safeties, as Colt McCoy keeps getting flagged for intentional grounding in the end zone. McCoy tries to argue that Chris Ogbonnaya and Montario Hardesty are eligible receivers, not radio contest winners who wandered onto the field wearing helmets, but the referees refuse to take him seriously. Nursing a 6-0 lead, the Rams make the fatal mistake of trying to play offense. They then punt to Josh Cribbs, who eludes all 11 defenders on a 99-yard return, carrying several teammates on his shoulders into the end zone. Meanwhile, Peyton Hillis steals all of the holiday decorations from local malls and promises 200 turkeys to a local charity, only to show up late with three cans of pumpkin pie filling. Pick: Browns.

Bills (5-3) at Cowboys (4-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Cowboys by 5.
The Bills have 57,000 unsold tickets left for their three remaining home games, so they have announced a promotion called December Charge. You can get a 12 percent discount if you buy three tickets to games in December. Thermal underwear, snowshoes and St. Bernard not included. Order now, and you get tickets to imaginary Cowboys Stadium seats for the next Super Bowl. There’s another way to get a ticket to a Bills game: Twitter-block a linebacker. Kirk Morrison needed to swap Twitter handles with a young man from Saskatchewan also named Kirk Morrison, so he traded an all-expenses-paid trip to the Bills-Jets game for the name. Quick: register yourself as @AndrewLuckColts, @AndrewLuckDolphins and @AndrewLuckSeahawks to see what happens! Pick: Bills.

Jaguars (2-6) at Colts (0-9)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Jaguars by 3.
The Colts and the Jaguars have met 20 times. Peyton Manning was the Colts quarterback for 19 of those meetings. The only other quarterback to start a game for the Colts against the Jaguars was Craig Erickson in 1995: he threw just 16 passes, but two of them were touchdowns in a 41-31 victory. No word yet on whether the Colts have contacted Erickson for Sunday. Pick: Jaguars.

Ravens (6-2) at Seahawks (2-6)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Ravens by 6.
Ravens Coach John Harbaugh had a large bruise on his chin during his Monday news conference. It seems that after Baltimore’s win over the Steelers, General Manager Ozzie Newsome met Harbaugh in the tunnel and applied the kind of celebratory hug that often ends with a $20,000 fine from the commissioner’s office. Two weeks ago, Pete Carroll explained that coaches go for touchdowns when they get “hormonal”; apparently, general managers go for coaches. Joe Flacco’s last-minute comeback against the Steelers changed experts’ perceptions of him because he did exactly what he always does — throw bombs and sideline passes, get used as James Harrison’s scratching post — in a slightly different order. The Seahawks’ offensive philosophy this year is to keep their time of possession so low that nobody notices them. Pick: Ravens.

Vikings (2-6) at Packers (8-0)
Monday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Packers by 13.
In the last two games, including one against the Vikings, Aaron Rodgers has thrown seven touchdown passes and just 11 incomplete passes. When he drops back to pass, he is nearly as likely to throw a touchdown (10.9 percent chance) as an incompletion (17.6 percent), though his chance to be sacked (12.5 percent) is somewhere in between. The Vikings’ chances of winning rest with the Packers’ defense playing another messy game like last Sunday’s, in which it allowed 38 points while scoring 14. Christian Ponder led a near-comeback against the Packers three weeks ago, and it may happen again, but you cannot like the odds. Pick: Packers.

All Times Eastern. Picks do not reflect the point spread. 

Is Sanchez a Leader? And Other N.F.L. Questions

I have a two-part question about the continuing development of Mark Sanchez as both a team leader and a quarterback. Seen game by game and season by season, how do his performances compare to the development of established quarterbacks like Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, etc., and is it relevant to compare his development to theirs? Is it relevant to compare him to other younger quarterbacks like Matthew Stafford?

Also, how does one gauge whether Sanchez is the team leader that many in the news media want him to be, let alone what the Jets’ management wants him to be? Is he that leader? Is he becoming that leader?Rocky Bleier, Brooklyn

These are all imperfect comparisons, but you can eliminate a few of these guys because Sanchez started immediately as a rookie on a team built to run and play defense.

Manning, Rivers, Brees and Rodgers did not start immediately as rookies. Eli Manning started later in his rookie season. Stafford has been hurt often so we haven’t had enough complete seasons to look. Flacco and Roethlisberger started right away on teams that were built to look the way the Jets want to look: great defense, powerful running games. Roethlisberger has become one of the best quarterbacks in the league on a team that now relies heavily on the pass (see its victory over New England). Flacco is still uneven, although he is surrounded by better receivers than he was for a few years.

Would I stack Sanchez up against Roethlisberger? Absolutely not. Is he more comparable to Flacco? Yes, and Sanchez gets extra credit because he has performed well in playoff games. But Boomer Esiason said something interesting to my colleague Ben Shpigel for an article he did about Sanchez’s third year: it’s time for Sanchez to be the reason the Jets win games, rather than the reason they don’t lose. That’s a substantial difference — is there any doubt Rodgers or Brees is the reason his team wins so much? But Sanchez seems to be trapped in the role of game manager. And the fact that the Jets, after their recent losses, have shifted back to the ground-and-pound offensive style suggests they still don’t think he can hoist the team on his back and lead the way.

As for whether he’s a team leader, that’s a process that usually takes place out of sight of reporters and fans. Can he take control of the locker room if need be? I’m not sure about that. In the recent losing streak there was plenty of sniping from Santonio Holmes aimed at Sanchez. In the end, leadership comes from winning, though. That’s the conundrum the Broncos face with Tim Tebow — people talk about his great leadership ability, but in the N.F.L. you cannot be a great leader if you don’t deliver on the field. Sanchez has to deliver — really win games when it’s all in his hands — to be considered a great leader.

Say the Colts end up with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 draft. Will they take Andrew Luck, or trade for multiple picks, draft another quarterback (to sit behind Peyton Manning for a couple of seasons) and a couple of other players to shore up the team for next year?
Justin, Quad Cities

You are asking what is going to be the question of the off-season, assuming the Colts continue in their nosedive (which I think they will). If they have the first pick, I think they will draft Luck. I don’t see how they can pass on him, or trade the pick. Most scouts and personnel executives believe he is the best prospect at least since Manning, and perhaps since John Elway. If you happen to be one of those people, you cannot pass on him. On top of that, Manning’s health remains in question — and it’s unclear at what point his health will be clarified. The Colts have to pay a huge bonus to him in March, so they will have to know with some certainty then what his future will be. But even the best situation for him is that he’s a 35-year-old quarterback coming off three neck surgeries in less than two years. That’s not good. So to me, the first question is do they pay Manning that bonus in March? If they do, the month leading up to the draft will be fascinating. Will Manning be willing to tutor Luck? Will teams offer the farm to get that first pick from the Colts? Would there be a temptation by the Colts to make a trade to load up to try to win a few more Super Bowls while Manning is still playing?

And don’t forget the unasked question: who is making these decisions? The first thing that has to happen in Indianapolis is that the owner Jim Irsay has to decide whether to retain Coach Jim Caldwell and Bill and Chris Polian. Nothing is guaranteed after a season like this.

Halfway through Mark Sanchez’s third season it’s time to ask: Do the Jets have a legitimate franchise quarterback in him? Also, how do you like the Jets’ chances against the Patriots this weekend?
Jacob, North Shore, Mass.

I probably mostly answered your Sanchez question above. The phrase “franchise quarterback” suggests to me someone who can consistently carry the team, and I don’t think Sanchez is there yet. He is being paid and certainly is being marketed as the franchise quarterback, and his draft position means he has to be that. Here’s an indicator: the obvious thing to do against the Patriots’ poor pass defense would be to put the game in Sanchez’s hands — the way the Steelers did with Roethlisberger. Will they do it? And will they be successful? If they insist on running, they are not attacking the weakest part of the Patriots. Now is as good a time as any for the Jets to get their franchise quarterback a signature victory.

I do like the Jets’ chances. The Patriots have not lost three in a row since 2002, but their defense is a major problem — if, as noted above, the Jets can exploit the pass defense — and that forces Tom Brady to be practically perfect to win. He has not been perfect several times this year, and in the first half last week he looked as inaccurate as he has in a long time.

Peter King of Sports Illustrated wrote that the Packers should be worried about their defense. They’ve made it this far, he acknowledges, but whether they can repeat as Super Bowl champions at the rate their defense is playing is problematic. The Packers insist they have only a few corrections to make. Is King right? How worried should the Packers and their fans be?
A.B.G., Chicago

I agree with Peter — it’s time to get a tiny bit concerned, despite the Packers’ record. They have made it this far undefeated because Aaron Rodgers is playing out of his mind, certainly the best quarterback play in the league now and arguably the best we’ve seen in quite a few years. But when they say all the defensive problems are correctible — O.K., it’s time to make the corrections and stop letting teams score so many points. If Rodgers stays healthy, there isn’t much question they should be able to score in crazy bunches. But in the playoffs they will probably face a team like the Niners, who have a good defense, and the Saints, who can also score almost at will. For example, we’ve seen how vulnerable the Chargers have been against other teams, but they went toe to toe with the Packers on offense. Suppose Rodgers has a bad day — it’s conceivable, even Tom Brady has had them this year. Inevitably in the playoffs, games get tighter and despite the tilt of the league to passing, teams that have good defenses go further. So yeah, if you’re a Packers fan, you might start to be worried about the defense. Of course, last year at this time, it was hard to imagine the Packers would even get to the playoffs and the offense really started to take off in the playoffs, so there is still plenty of time. If they improve in the next few weeks, though, buy your tickets to Indianapolis.

I’ve followed Joe Flacco and the Ravens closely over the past three years. Do you share my impression that Flacco has grown into a prime (let’s forget about “elite”) quarterback now that he has high-quality receivers?Wilgar, Washington, D.C.

I think Flacco was always a prime quarterback (if we assume that there is a handful of “elite” quarterbacks like Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, etc., and then a group behind that group, I’d put Flacco in the second group) and yes, he is obviously being helped by the fleet of receivers he has now. That has been a shortcoming of the Ravens for a few years — they have not been able to stretch the field because of it. Flacco has a strong arm and having a guy like Torrey Smith able to run past everyone takes advantage of that and also forces defenses to back off Ray Rice. What you want now is to see Flacco be more consistent week in and week out. No more of those weird flops against Jacksonville. And you certainly want to see a better completion percentage than the 54.7 percent he is at now (that would be a career low, more than 5 points below his rookie year). He’s on a pace for the first 4,000-yard season of his career, though.

Is there something about Michael Vick’s playing style or preparation that is responsible for his inconsistency from one game to the next? Or is it largely because of his teammates, the offensive scheme, and/or opposing defenses? Does his long absence from the game play a role, or has he always played this way?Matt, Palo Alto, Calif.

Vick has always played this way. Since he has been in Philadelphia, he has actually been more disciplined than he was in Atlanta. He stays in the pocket more, rather than taking off and running. He is a dynamic player and you don’t want to harness that too much or you take away what scares defenses: his ability to take off. The inconsistency of the Eagles this year has plenty of roots but here’s a big one: the offensive line has been a work in progress and no quarterback, not Aaron Rodgers and not Michael Vick, can look good if the offensive line looks bad. Worth noting though: Vick is completing 62 percent of his passes this season. Last year he was at 62.6. Those are the only two seasons of his career above 56.4 percent, which was his high water mark in Atlanta. The alarming thing about this season is that his interceptions are soaring. He has nine already, after just six last year, and he has never had more than 13.

How does the N.F.L. decide how to fine a player for what it determines to be an illegal hit? Does the N.F.L. explain each situation in detail so fans can understand the logic? Ryan Clark obviously disagrees with the $40,000 fine he just received. Clark and Coach Mike Tomlin have described the details of how Clark tackled the receiver and they are openly stating the hit was legal. Again, does the N.F.L. have an obligation to describe its rationale?Eric Conrad, Canton, Mich.

Several members of the league office, including Ray Anderson, who is in charge of all football operations, and Merton Hanks, who works for Anderson, look at the film of each play and each game. They are aware that some plays need special scrutiny. They have every camera angle imaginable available to them. Then they determine the fine. The severity of the fine is often based on past transgressions (think of James Harrison’s escalating fines last year). I don’t think the N.F.L. has a particular obligation to explain its thinking to fans. It does have an obligation to explain what it sees that is problematic to players because the whole point is to eliminate dangerous hits. If there is a genuine disagreement among Clark, Tomlin and the league office about what constitutes an acceptable hit, I suspect there will be communication among them at some point to explain what they want Clark to do differently.

If a pro football player signs a five-year contract but the team can cut him without pay two days, or weeks, later, why would he sign the contract?Evinkeefe, Larchmont. N.Y.

What other choice does he have? The contract usually comes with a signing bonus, which is the only guaranteed money available to players. But this is how the N.F.L. has always worked — no guaranteed contracts because of the high injury rate and relatively short careers. It certainly gives the team more power, but that is why you see players and their agents fighting so hard for the bonus money.

The uniforms increasingly drive me crazy, with pants looking more like bicycle shorts as they creep up the thigh. I thought the N.F.L. was notorious for protecting the uniform? I thought I read somewhere that knee pads would be mandatory. Was I dreaming?A. Greenberg, New York

The N.F.L. wants to make more pads mandatory (thigh pads, knee pads), but players have resisted. They think, correctly or not, that it slows them down. Additional padding was not mandated in the new collective bargaining agreement, so don’t hold your breath for players to don more armor voluntarily — even linemen prefer to wear smaller pads because they are lighter.

Week 10 N.F.L. Game Probabilities: A Jets-Patriots Tossup

It’s now the Jets’ turn to represent New York against the Patriots. The twist in this matchup is that the Jets think they’re a running team, when they’re actually more productive when passing. And the Patriots are thought of as a sophisticated finesse passing offense, when they’re also one of the best running teams in the league.

The Jets’ Expected Points Added (EPA) — a measure of net scoring capacity — totals 0.02 when running and 14.1 when passing. And on a per play basis, passing is remarkably more effective than running for the Jets.

The Patriots’ running game is strong, with a solid 4.5 yards per carry (YPC) average and, more important, a 49 percent success rate (SR). The last time the teams met, running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis ran for 136 yards on 27 carries, good for 5.0 yards per carry and a 57 percent SR. Much of New England’s running success is because defenses are on their heels, focused on containing Welker, Hernandez and Gronkowski.

Here’s how both teams stack up at this point in the season:

 

In terms of predictive efficiency, the Jets rank 20th on offense and 5th on defense, while the Patriots rank 2nd on offense and 25th on defense. Both teams have had tough schedules, with the Patriots having a slightly tougher one. New England is reeling from two consecutive losses, but they’re the better team at the moment. The Jets have home-field advantage this time around, so the efficiency model is in agreement with the larger consensus that this game is a virtual tossup.

Here are the Game probabilities for Week 10.
(For more on the prediction model and its accuracy, see this post.

 

Brian Burke, a former Navy pilot who has taken up the less dangerous hobby of N.F.L. statistical analysis, operates Advanced NFL Stats, a blog about football, math and human behavior.

Football Outsiders Has Jets Rated No. 1

You get the sense, in reading Aaron Schatz’s explanation for how this is possible, that even he is scratching his head — at the same time as Rex Ryan would be nodding his.

In the weekly Football Outsider DVOA ratings, the Jets are the top-ranked team in the N.F.L.

Schatz, the creator of Football Outsiders, acknowledges that it’s not exactly a consensus opinion:

Obviously, this will be a bit controversial. It’s hard to find anyone out there who doesn’t rank undefeated Green Bay as the top team in the league right now, and even harder to find anyone willing to consider the Jets as being in that class.
Normally, the various advanced ratings systems on the Internets are mostly in agreement about which teams are overrated and underrated. Not this year. DVOA is going out on a limb with its Jets love. The Jets are tenth in the league in point differential. Pro-football-reference’s Simple Ratings System has the Jets ranked 11th. Jeff Sagarin has the Jets ranked eighth. Advanced NFL Stats doesn’t have its power ratings up as I write this but last week they had the Jets a mediocre 14th.

It’s only the second time in the 20-year history of the Football Outsider rating that the Jets are No. 1.

Schatz says the ranking reflects the Jets’ excellence on  defense and special teams. And the offense has a high percentage of successful, or at least not negative, plays.

Extra point Last week, the Jets seemed to be fighting for their playoff lives. Had the Jets lost to the Bills, their chances of winning the division would have been around 2 percent, according to NFL-Forecast.com. Now they’re better than the Packers? Take a look at Schatz’s post and let us know what you think of his reasoning.

Moving Month for Jets?

The third round of a golf major is called moving day because the tournament winner often comes from a group of players who surged on Saturday. It’s hard to picture Rex Ryan in golfing knickers, but his Jets seem poised to make a big move in November, the third month of the N.F.L. season.

The Jets’ 27-11 victory over the Bills was their finest all-around performance of the season. Were there penalties and some sloppiness that need to be addressed? Sure. But only three weeks ago, the Jets appeared in danger of “missing the cut” when they lost to the Patriots in Foxborough. At 2-3, the Jets were scuffling, and the Patriots were soaring at 4-1.

Now the Jets are tied for first place in the A.F.C. East with the Bills and Patriots. The Jets appear to be gearing up for their stretch run by sharpening their overall game.

On Sunday, Mark Sanchez (20 of 28, 230 yards, TD, INT), who was solid against the Bills, likened next Sunday’s game against the suddenly reeling Patriots to a divisional championship game.

Let’s take a quick look at what will be on the horizon for the Jets if they can continue to refine their game and find a way to hand the Patriots their third consecutive loss  Sunday night at MetLife Stadium.

1) The Jets would be, at worst, tied for first place in the A.F.C. East with the Bills, who have to travel to Dallas. A Bills loss to the Cowboys would give the Jets sole possession of first. In addition, the Jets would have a one-game lead over the Patriots and would hold the tiebreak edge in the division (Jets 3-1, Patriots 2-2).

2) Cincinnati (6-2) surprisingly sits atop the A.F.C. North, but it has a difficult schedule coming up. Cincinnati is tied with Baltimore at 6-2, but the Bengals  currently hold a tiebreak edge. After next Sunday’s game against the 6-3 Steelers, the Bengals play the Ravens in Baltimore on Nov. 20. Cincinnati may catch a break with Cleveland on Nov. 27, but the Bengals then have to travel to Pittsburgh on Dec. 4. In any case, the A.F.C. North rivals Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Baltimore will be beating up on one another in the coming weeks.

3) The A.F.C. West had a terrible day. The three teams that were tied for the division lead all lost. San Diego, Oakland and Kansas City lead the division at 4-4, with Denver only a game back at 3-5.

4) A.F.C. South-leading Houston (6-3) has a tough assignment.  The Texans play at Tampa Bay next Sunday before a bye week.

If the Jets can beat New England and seize control of the A.F.C. East, they will immediately become a player in the overall A.F.C. picture.

Extra point Is November going to become moving month for the Jets?

Jets at Bills: Matchup to Watch

Jets (4-3) at Bills (5-2), 1 p.m. Eastern, CBS

Matchup to Watch: Shonn Greene vs. Buffalo defense

The Bills have allowed 120 rushing yards a game this season. Under Rex Ryan, the Jets have averaged 279 yards on the ground in four meetings with Buffalo, which augurs well for a rejuvenated Greene. Behind a steady offensive line, Greene erupted for a season-high 112 yards on Oct. 23 against San Diego. He must contend with the superb rookie defensive tackle Marcell Dareus, a pass-rushing force who also clogs the middle.

Number to Watch: 14

That is how many passes the Bills have picked off, the most in the N.F.L. this season. Making smart decisions will be even more important for Mark Sanchez, who has thrown one interception over his last three games. He will be facing an opportunistic defense that forced two of the league’s top quarterbacks, Michael Vick and Tom Brady, into throwing four interceptions each.

Quotation of the Week

“Every time you look at him, he’s probably better than you even remember.”

Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick on cornerback Darrelle Revis, against whom quarterbacks have a 2.9 rating, according to ProFootballFocus.com.

Jets Approach a Critical Juncture

Making projections is a dangerous business. It is often fruitless, too. But it has become fairly obvious that November is shaping up as a critical month for the Jets, and not just because it comes after October.

The Jets, after defeating San Diego on Sunday, are 4-3 heading into their bye week and ninth in the A.F.C. The top six teams in the conference make the playoffs.

To earn a spot in the top four, the Jets would have to win the division. That is possible, but pretty much only if they defeat New England (5-1) at MetLife Stadium on Nov. 13. To improve their chances of earning one of the two wild-card spots, the Jets must beat other teams in contention.

None appear on their schedule except for the Buffalo Bills, who play the Jets twice next month — on Nov. 6 in Orchard Park, N.Y., and on Nov. 27 at MetLife Stadium. The Jets’ other November game is at Denver, which could be trickier than the Broncos’ record — 2-4, after the legend of Tim Tebow grew Sunday — suggests.

Clearly, the Jets are trending upward. Their defense shut out the Chargers’ high-powered offense in the second half. Plaxico Burress caught three touchdown passes, all in the red zone, in a performance that showed why he was given a guaranteed $3.017 million deal. And for the first time all season, the Jets amassed more rushing yards (162) than passing (156) on the strength of a breakout day by Shonn Greene.

Was the Jets’ comeback Sunday enough to slough aside their early woes and inconsistency, or will the tough November schedule derail their playoff hopes?

Kerley Making the Jets Forget About Mason

A quick look at the Jets’ 27-21 victory over San Diego:

KEY PLAY/PERFORMANCE: Each successive solid game by Jeremy Kerley makes it hard to believe he barely played the first month of the season. Eclipsed by the since-departed Derrick Mason in September, Kerley has since emerged as a favorite target of Mark Sanchez, who on third down found him twice on the Jets’ first scoring drive of the second half. Both conversions came with the Jets needing at least 5 yards for the first down. Kerley finished with a career-high four receptions for 29 yards.

NOTABLE NUMBER: At one point toward the end of the game, Calvin Pace glanced at the scoreboard and, reading Philip Rivers’s passing statistics, knew the defense had clamped down. Rivers threw for only 179 yards, his fewest in 22 regular-season games, since Jan. 3, 2010. The Jets had only one sack, in the first quarter, but their pass rush pressured Rivers for much of the afternoon. Their secondary held Vincent Jackson without a catch in the second half.

TALKING POINT: Have the Jets moved past their early woes, or will they reappear during a tough November schedule?

Much-Needed Win for Jets, but What Does It Mean?

The prevailing emotion in the Jets’ locker room late Monday night after they beat the hapless Miami Dolphins, 24-6, was that of relief. Never has being an average team with a 3-3 record felt so good.

“To get the feeling of winning, when you don’t get that three times in a row, you start doubting yourself,” guard Brandon Moore said.

The Jets did what they expected, and were expected, to do against Miami. They won and won decisively. And still, the feeling exists that the Jets did not play that well, or as well as the 18-point margin of victory indicated.

It took 24 minutes for them to register their first first down. They gained 10 yards of offense in the first quarter. On defense, they failed to protect the edge on the Dolphins’ first play from scrimmage, watching Reggie Bush bolt around the right end for 36 yards, and a few breakdowns led to some big Miami gains.

Better teams than Miami capitalize on those mistakes, and one of those better teams happens to be visiting MetLife Stadium next Sunday: the 4-1 San Diego Chargers. By winning Monday night, can the Jets resume dreaming of the playoffs, or did the victory conceal some ever-present flaws?

Miami at Jets: Matchup to Watch

Dolphins (0-4) at Jets (2-3), 8:30 p.m. Eastern, ESPN

Matchup to Watch: Jets’ defense vs. Dolphins’ run game

According to the defensive coordinator Mike Pettine, the Jets wasted the best game of the noted run-stopper Mike DeVito’s career in a loss Oct. 9 in New England. Another wasted game would be demoralizing. The Jets fully expect the Dolphins, with Matt Moore making his first start at quarterback for Miami, to run and run and run, with Reggie Bush, Lex Hilliard and, if healthy, Daniel Thomas. The Jets yield 134.8 rushing yards per game. For a unit aiming to regain respectability, nothing more than domination Monday will suffice.

Number to Watch: 45.6

That is how many yards Joe McKnight has averaged on his nine kickoff returns, best in the N.F.L. McKnight has produced two long returns — a 107-yarder for a touchdown against Baltimore and an 88-yarder against New England that led to a third-quarter touchdown — and his explosiveness could pose problems for Miami. The Dolphins have allowed 27.4 yards per kickoff return, putting them in the bottom third of the league. The Jets, though, will surely welcome fewer returns by McKnight if that means that their defense is playing well.

Quotation of the Week

“They’re still the team to beat in our division.”
Dolphins Coach TONY SPARANO, whose team lost by 14 points to first-place New England (5-1) in the season opener, on the 2-3 Jets.

Final Dagger on 0-3 Road Trip for Jets

If the Jets knew before Sunday’s game that they would hold Wes Welker in check for the most part while limiting Tom Brady to one touchdown pass and intercepting him once, they probably would have signed up for it.

What they wouldn’t have signed up for was what happened after the Jets cut their deficit to 27-21 with 7 minutes 7 seconds left.

The Patriots put the finishing touches on the Jets’ miserable road swing by running the ball and daring the Jets to stop them. They couldn’t. Here is the sequence of New England offensive plays — the knockout punch delivered by Bill Belichick to Rex Ryan — that burned nearly five minutes off the clock until right before the two-minute warning.

1) 1st and 10 at Patriots 22 BenJarvis Green-Ellis right end for 8 yards (David Harris).
2) 2nd and 2 at Patriots 30 Brady up the middle for 3 yards (Jamaal Westerman).
3) 1st and 10 at Patriots 33 Green-Ellis left end for 15 yards (Darrelle Revis, Brodney Pool).
4) 1st and 10 at Patriots 48 Green-Ellis right guard for 6 yards (Marquice Cole).
5) 2nd and 4 at Jets 46 Green-Ellis right end for no gain (Mike Devito; Sione Pouha).
6) 3rd and 4 at Jets 46 direct snap to Green-Ellis left end for 14 yards (David Harris).
7) 1st and 10 at Jets 32 Green-Ellis left end for 5 yards (Harris).
8) 2nd and 5 at Jets 27 Green-Ellis left tackle for 3 yards (Jim Leonhard; Harris).

The Jets used their first timeout with 2:13 remaining, but by then the damage was done. In moving from their 22 to the Jets’ 24, the Patriots did not attempt a pass. The Patriots ran Green-Ellis 7 times for 54 yards, with Brady picking up 3 yards on the other play, before Brady finally attempted and completed a pass, to Rob Gronkowski for 7 yards. By the time the Jets finally held on third down at their 8, there was only 1:06 left, and the game was essentially over.

Stephen Gotskowski’s 28-yard field goal provided the final points in the Patriots’ 30-21 victory.

Extra Point Can the Jets count on their home field in the next two weeks against Miami and San Diego to help get them back on track?

Talking Points for Jets

A few talking points after the Jets’ 30-21 loss against New England.

BOTTOM LINE
Are the Jets, at 2-3, a playoff-caliber team, or are they spiraling out of control after three straight losses?

PROMISING PERFORMANCE

Antonio Cromartie atoned for blown coverage on Aaron Hernandez by intercepting a deflected pass at the goal line to close the first half. What would probably have been a touchdown — the ball went through Hernandez’s hands, caroming to Cromartie — became a brief momentum-stopper for the Jets, who thwarted a scoring threat that had begun at the Patriots’ 7. It allowed the Jets to remain within a field goal at halftime, 10-7, instead of being down by two scores with New England preparing to receive the second-half kickoff.

NOTABLE NUMBER
Despite being afforded better protection, Mark Sanchez threw for only 70 yards in the first three quarters. His inaccuracy was evident, other than a 4-for-4 showing on the Jets’ first scoring drive. The Jets hoped that a renewed commitment to running the ball would open up play-action opportunities for Sanchez, but it didn’t work out that way Sunday.