Andy Benoit is previewing all 33 N.F.L. teams. Next up: The Ravens.
It has been over 10 years and the Baltimore Ravens still haven’t changed. Not that we necessarily thought they should or would. But when Steve Bisciotti assumed ownership from Art Modell, there was perhaps an inkling that this defense-only organization would become a little more balanced.
That inkling became a full-fledged expectation in 2008, when General Manager Ozzie Newsome invested a first-round pick in quarterback Joe Flacco and a second-rounder in versatile running back Ray Rice. That same year, the new coach John Harbaugh hired Cam Cameron to run his offense. Cameron had made a name for himself orchestrating San Diego’s high-flying attack from ’02-’06. The assumption was this would all shift the franchise toward a more balanced philosophy.
But here we are three years later and still yet to see that shift. It’s still middling offense, stingy defense in Baltimore. Statistically, this Raven offense has been better than those that preceded it – but not by much. And it’s gotten considerably more conservative. The ’08 Ravens ranked first in the N.F.L. in rushing attempts. The ’09 Ravens ranked seventh and the ’10 Ravens sixth. Consequently, those three teams all ranked somewhere between 24th and 30th in pass attempts.
Newsome is continuing his efforts to change this. He brought in wide receivers Anquan Boldin last year and Lee Evans this year, plus he drafted wideouts Torrey Smith and Tandon Doss. Even if the Ravens become more adroit offensively, recent history suggests they’ll still be rooted in a smashmouth style.
Smashmouth could win you a Super Bowl in the early part of this century; the Ravens themselves set that tone in 2000 and were followed by the defensive-oriented ’01 Patriots and ’02 Bucs. But lately, teams have won titles with flexible, turnover-forcing defenses and high-flying, pass-first offenses.
The Ravens have the first part of this equation. Their defense is still headlined by a Mount Rushmore of playmakers – safety Ed Reed, linebacker Ray Lewis, defensive tackle Haloti Ngata and hybrid end Terrell Suggs – and has ranked No. 3 in points allowed three straight years. But the unfulfilling playoff appearances – Baltimore was ousted in the A.F.C. title game in ’08 and divisional round each of the past two years – point to missing the offensive part of the equation.
A great defense alone can’t win a Super Bowl – only an all-time defense can. This Ravens D is loaded but, unlike the 2000 defense, it’s far from flawless. Thus, if the Ravens want to take the next step from being a consummate “good team”, they’ll have to once again improve on that other side of the ball. (You didn’t really think the storyline would be any different this year than usual, did you?)
Offense
Cam Cameron removed Joe Flacco’s training wheels last season but was still hesitant to let his young quarterback bike on all of the rugged trails. That has to change in 2011. Unlike past seasons, the change now hinges on Flacco. Before, it was a matter of Cameron agreeing to open the playbook for him. Let’s assume Flacco’s earned enough trust for that. The next step is being able to get creative working out of that playbook.
Whether it’s from audibling or post-snap improvising, elite quarterbacks are a threat to burn a defense with the big play on virtually every down; at this point, Flacco only poses this threat when Cameron specifically calls for a shot downfield.
The Ravens don’t need to be defined by a high-flying aerial assault, but they do need to know that Flacco gives them that option. That comes from his making shrewd presnap adjustments and being a comfortable enough progression passer to make improvisational plays when things break down. (With elite quarterbacks, improvising is a product of having sound fundamentals and sharp mental processing systems after the snap.)
The 26-year-old Flacco is on the right track. He’s gradually improved as a pocket passer each year. As his potency throwing to the outside attests, he has the arm strength to deliver strikes with defenders around him. Consistency between the numbers is a remaining issue that suggests he’s still not entirely comfortable reading complex coverages. But this is a glitch that can be fixed with experience and film study.
Ozzie Newsome has surrounded Flacco with the necessary weapons to continue his growth. Anquan Boldin is an archetypal possession receiver. He’ll slide into the slot in three-receiver sets and make room for speedy rookie Torrey Smith outside. Ex-Bill Lee Evans, whose statistics have never told the full story of his all-around explosiveness, is the outside starter across from Boldin. Evans offers more route variations than Derrick Mason did, but it remains to be seen if he can match the chemistry that Mason had with Flacco. At the No. 4 receiver slot, fourth-round rookie Tandon Doss is well sized and should ultimately work ahead of return specialist David Reed.
The improved speed at wideout will make defenses a little less inclined to storm Baltimore’s backfield with blitzes. Flacco is hot-or-cold against the blitz mentally but tremendous against it physically. One reason he can make effective throws with defenders around him is he’s had the luxury of playing with outstanding blitz pickup blockers like Ray Rice, Le’Ron McClain, Willis McGahee and Todd Heap. Rice, however, is the only player from this group returning in 2011. McClain’s replacement, Vonta Leach, is a fervid lead-blocker but won’t play on third down. McGahee’s replacement, Ricky Williams, is a poised veteran but not a beast in blocking. And Heap’s replacement, Ed Dickson, is a nimble receiver but someone the Ravens last year replaced in running situations with a sixth offensive lineman. Don’t be surprised if Dickson yields some reps – even first-team reps – to his fellow second-year tight end, the less tantalizing Dennis Pitta, for blocking purposes.
Blocking could become a deeper issue across the board, as some of Baltimore’s fairly talented linemen are prone to bouts of inconsistency. The most obvious example is Michael Oher, who was erratic in his technique after moving to left tackle last season. Too often Oher struggled to sustain pass-blocks late in the down. If those issues continue, the Ravens will move him back to right tackle and place their trust in soft but enormous ex-Viking Bryant McKinnie.
The originally planned 2011 starting right tackle, Oniel Cousins, spent his first three years learning the basics of football predominantly from the bench. He reportedly had a disappointing camp and, in the end, was moved to guard. That’s a much better fit. He’ll work behind Marshal Yanda, who is great at nothing but good at everything. The Ravens love Yanda enough to have given him a five-year, $32 million contract this past July. In Cousin’s right tackle spot will be either Oher or intriguing third-round rookie Jah Reid.
Left guard Ben Grubbs can be one of the league’s best if he gets more consistent as a drive-blocker in the run game. He’s now in his fifth season, so there’s no guarantee that he’ll develop much further. Sagacious center Matt Birk is the glue that holds this front together. The 35-year-old has great hands and, though more of a stone-waller than mover at this point, can still operate at the second level.
It’s critical that this line – which, by the way, no longer has proven depth now that Chris Chester is gone – generate more unified power in the run game. This deficiency was why the Ravens ranked 28th in yards per carry last season. Behind stellar blocking, a fully healthy Ray Rice is easily one of the five best ballcarriers in the game. Rice has terrific lateral agility and the sturdy low center of gravity to shake off tacklers. Backup Ricky Williams still has some initial burst and, overall, is an upgrade over McGahee. However, it remains to be seen whether the 34-year-old can match his predecessor’s proficiency in short-yardage situations.
Defense
All in all, this is the same street-fighting Ravens defense we’ve come to know over the years. It’s not as schematically variegated as it was under Rex Ryan, but new coordinator Chuck Pagano (who spent the previous three years as the secondary coach and replaces Greg Mattison, who chose to coordinate the defense at University of Michigan) figures to still be more aggressive than most, especially when it comes to blitzing with slot defensive backs and other roaming edge players.
One thing Ryan had that Pagano doesn’t was a rangy Ray Lewis. The NFL Network’s Top 100 Players series this past summer was rendered utterly irrelevant when it was revealed that the players voted Lewis as the fourth-best player in the entire league. No disrespect to the greatest inside linebacker of his era (if not all-time), but Lewis these days is only the fourth best player on his own defense. To be clear, the 36-year-old is still an upper-tier Mike ‘backer. But his effectiveness is strictly a product of near-perfect tackling and incredible awareness and instincts – no longer otherworldly athletic gifts.
Lewis’s decline is offset by having two shimmering stars in the front seven alongside him: Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs. Ngata is the most dominant defensive lineman in the sport today. He has the size and strength of an elite nose tackle and the agility of a 3-4 inside linebacker (no exaggeration). He dictates the action whether he’s anchoring on the edge, shooting the gap as a three-technique or bull-rushing head-up from the nose. This multidimensional dominance is what allows Pagano to mix his fronts.
Suggs is nearly as impressive. He’s always been the league’s best run-defending outside linebacker, both on the play side and chasing from the back side, and he’s coming off his best pass-rushing season as a pro (his 11 sacks were one below the career high he set as a rookie in ’03, but this past season he was more disruptive down-to-down than ever).
The Ravens could surround their three front stars with Joe Schmoes and still be fine. Newsome has found more than Joe Schmoes, though. Outside linebacker Jarrett Johnson is excellent at slipping blocks in traffic. He’s a versatile three-down player. Last year’s second-round pick, Sergio Kindle, could see snaps this season after missing his rookie season with a fractured skull, but don’t expect him, or third-year pro Paul Kruger (who may finally be finding his niche) to take a significant bite out of Johnson’s action anytime soon.
Inside linebacker Jameel McClain has improved his run recognition and is adequate next to Lewis. His snaps can be limited sometimes, though, as he’s often replaced in sub packages by the more athletic Tavares Gooden for coverage purposes and the faster Dannell Ellerbe for pass-rushing purposes.
Up front next to Ngata, veteran Cory Redding is a high-energy penetrator. Likely seeing more snaps in 2011 will be second-year pro Arthur Jones, a squat space-eater who can untangle from blocks with better strength than Redding. Fifth-round rookie Pernell McPhee also turned heads in camp and could warrant snaps.
Last year’s second-round pick, Terrence Cody, is being handed the starting nose tackle role vacated by cap casualty Kelly Gregg. Cody flashes superb natural ability but mechanics and professionalism could be a work in progress. Fortunately the Ravens at least have serviceable veteran Brandon McKinney to fall back on if need be.
Pagano’s aggression with his front could hinge on the degree of improvement at cornerback. It’s likely that first-round rookie Jimmy Smith and rising ex-Titans seventh-rounder Cary Williams could start in Week 1, which would give the Ravens two big, physical press players – something they’ve not had in ages. That would leave Dominique Foxworth, a highly respected leader coming off reconstructive knee surgery, competing with Lardarius Webb and Chris Carr for nickel duties. Bet on Webb to win the job. True, he’s not physical enough to blitz (which may be why the Ravens now play him outside, even though he showed encouraging signs from the slot as a rookie), and he can be vulnerable to inside patterns, but he also might be the best deep ball defending corner in the N.F.L. If Carr, who can’t stay with most receivers in man coverage without drawing a flag, wins the job, it will be because of experience and short-area zone skills.
At safety, because Ed Reed has better range than any cellphone provider and baits quarterbacks into bad throws easier than Nevin Shapiro baited Hurricane players into bad decisions, the Ravens can afford to have their strong safety play closer to the box than most teams. That’s why it’d make more sense for the big-hitting Bernard Pollard to start ahead of the fleeter Tom Zbikowski.
Special Teams
Place-kicker Billy Cundiff was reliable enough in his first two seasons as a Raven to warrant a five-year, $14.7 million contract this past off-season. At punter, how about this for a compromise: Sam Koch can continue to get away with pronouncing his last name “cook” only if he finishes in the top five in net punting for a second straight year. Otherwise, we require him to start honoring the English language’s basic principles. Lardarius Webb will handle punt returns ahead of capable options Chris Carr and Tom Zbikowski. David Reed has shown explosiveness as a kick returner.
Bottom Line
Same formula as usual: stingy defense, conservative offense, and prognosticators basing their predictions on whether Joe Flacco and the offense can take that next step. Across the board, Baltimore’s depth is a little meeker than usual, but that’s an ancillary issue.
Predicted Finish: 2nd A.F.C. North
Andy Benoit is the founder of NFLTouchdown.com and covers the N.F.L. for CBSsports.com. He can be reached at andy.benoit@NFLtouchdown.com.
