Rugby World Cup 2011: Predictions – Too little too late for Scotland, Samoa and Italy in battle of bonus points

Take your pick of headlines for this weekend’s rugby… Sweet and sour success for Scotland; Big hits but little luck for Samoa; Pasta and basta for Italy.

All three are tantalisingly close to the play-offs, but for different reasons they’ll all fall short of a quarter-final place.

Welcome to the start of the real world cup, a newspaper headline in Auckland read today, and they’re right. Come Sunday night and there will be elation and depression in almost equal measure. It’s the weekend of the bonus points.

Amazingly at this late stage in the pool games, only New Zealand are absolutely guaranteed a quarter-final berth irrespective of what happens in Pool A. Canada could still pip France to the runners-up place, but only a double-deluded dunce would see them beat the All Blacks with a bonus point in the process and France lose heavily to Tonga. So that’s settled.

Then it becomes interesting. Pools B and D will require bonus points to upset the current standings. Argentina will no doubt smash Georgia, so Scotland need not only beat old foe England at Eden Park on Saturday, but do so with four tries and deny England a losing bonus point.

A haggis or two too far? Absolutely – as Scottish fans here in Auckland readily admit. And yet, will this required hell-for-leather approach liberate the Scots for once and see them throw all caution to the wind?

I’ll predict Scotland to actually score a try or two – despite their lame duck performances at RWC 2011 so far – but to fall short in the end (and possibly even get beaten by England at the death as the clock ticks down and the dream dies fast). Scotland 21 England 19.

Likewise in Pool D, where the current table topper could still depart home on Monday. On most days I’d say smash-and-run Samoa have four tries in them, but they’ve looked hesitant at RWC2011 while South Africa are showing sharp and ruthless signs. Wales will do the business comfortably against Fiji on Sunday, so it’s goodbye Samoa at North Harbour on Friday. South Africa 37 Samoa 22.

The biggest and most intriguing battle looms in Pool C, where unbeaten Ireland could still exit early. And Italy don’t even need to score four tries to make that happen – though they’ll have to deny Declan Kidney’s team a losing bonus point.

But that’s poppycock. Italy's forwards are mostly awesome, but their backs often make a plate of spaghetti look orderly and organised. So Ireland 28 Italy 13.

Fair calls or ramblings of a madman as we start this weekend of shock and awe? Your calls please…

This blog is supported by Maximuscle, suppliers of Creatine to Courtney Lawes, Joe Simpson and the Welsh Rugby Team.

Rugby World Cup 2011: Fiji v Samoa… far from the hype we expected but it keeps Pool D wide open

First all the hype, then the drabness, and finally some drama and partial redemption for this match. But it was far from vintage Pacific Island rugby.

For almost 60 minutes it seemed we'd witness an extreme rarity – neither Fiji nor Samoa scoring a try – and there was little show of the traditional flair, the sleight of hand, the blistering pace or the bone-shuddering hits.

Rather, it was bad handling, kicks instead of passing and a complete lack of spark that had the crowd resorting to Mexican Waves after only 26 minutes.

But then the sun came out and the match lit up, to give the vocal 60,327 crowd something to remember this encounter for.

Samoa's Paul Williams was sensational while Netani Talei and Gaby Lovobalavu tried to smash and bash their way through everything to salvage something for Fiji. Alas, too little too late.

The pre-match hype fell well short of the reality, but at least the result keeps Pool D extremely honest. Barring a massive upset in the other remaining games, South Africa v Samoa at North Harbour on Friday will decide the fortunes of all three. SA are in the driver's seat, but it could still come down to bonus points.

Who of the Springboks, Wales or Samoa will top the group – and who'll be heading home early?

This blog is supported by Maximuscle, suppliers of sports nutrition to Courtney Lawes, Joe Simpson and the Welsh Rugby Team.

Rugby World Cup 2011: My predictions – Scotland to beat England, an early exit for Ireland, Wales to top Pool D

Under 24 hours to go to Rugby World Cup 2011 kick-off (at the time of writing), so time to spell out how I think the pools will develop. Is this what I hope will happen, or think will occur? Not entirely sure myself – probably a mix of voices from the heart and the head – but no matter, here goes.

And please let me know how and where you agree or disagree.

Pool A

Very much a two-horse race, with the only real significant match on September 24 between New Zealand and their nemesis, France. On paper you'd have to say the All Blacks, but then you think back to 1999 and 2007, and suddenly it's one of THE biggest pool matches imaginable.

Can Les Bleus upset the apple cart true and proper by beating the hosts? Both will obviously want to win the group – thereby, on paper at least, securing an 'easier' quarter-final – but Pool B is wide open and coming second in Pool A might ultimately not be a massive price to pay.

Being the hosts has huge pros and cons for NZ – possibly unbearable pressure and expectations, but also masses of support. The current All Blacks seem to be open and relaxed, mingling with the public and coming across confident. Compare that with the siege mentality of previous campaigns (and failures), and they may just be on to a good thing here.

Prediction 1 NZ, 2 France.

Pool B

One of two 'pools of death'. And gut feel says this is so tight to call that bonus points – for scoring four tries or more or losing by seven points or under – may just come heavily into play.

Yes, Argentina seem not to be the force they were in 2007, but I think they may still be good enough to trouble their opponents. Fence-sitting? No way! England to beat the Pumas by a comfortable few, before backs-against-the-wall Argentina rumble Scotland.

All which sets up the group perfectly for a killer clash at Eden Park on October 1. And in an ugly, messy, attritional slug-fest among the two packs, I predict the Scots to squeeze home by a point or two (all courtesy of kicks). And so we're back in bonus-points territory and possibly points difference.

Prediction 1 England, 2 Scotland.

Pool C

The most predictable in terms of who'll finish on top. Can't see any of the four teams remotely threatening Australia. The Wallabies are also in the comfortable position of having played their two 'big' pool opponents by September 17, allowing some rest for key players in preparation for the play-offs.

Who'll finish second is the exciting bit. On paper it would seem to be Ireland by a country mile – but Italy will fancy their chances given Ireland's lacklustre warm-ups and the narrow 11-13 defeat in Rome in February. Having both lost to the Aussies come October 2, I think the pressure will simply mess with the Irish players' heads. Their dismal RWC record will play on their minds – and continue.

Prediction 1 Australia, 2 Italy.

Pool D

The most physical, closely contested group of the lot – and the other one in which bonus points could determine the final standings. Spare a thought for Namibia, who will be lambs to the slaughter in every match. And much as I like the Fijian way of playing – and despite their heroics last year – this year they'll end fourth in the pool, leaving it to South Africa, Wales and Samoa to slug it out.

This may sound like a caveat, but much depends on whether Wales learn to play the full 80 minutes or stick to exerting themselves only in the last 40, which, against the Boks and Samoa, could mean both games are lost for them by half-time.

Much has been made of Samoa's win over Australia in July, but it was against a mix-and-match team, so I'm going to discount that slightly. Ultimately, then, I somehow believe Wales will win both matches while South Africa's rather boring but efficient kick-and-chase game will stifle Samoa (of course, and I expect some biffo from both, this match could be won by the team who earns the fewer yellow/red cards).

Prediction 1 Wales, 2 South Africa.

Now kick that ball in anger!

Finally, you can still enter the competition to win Maximuscle gear and products by predicting the England v Argentina and Wales v South Africa scores (see the previous blog).

And very finally, my predictions for the big opening matches: NZ 35 Tonga 13, England 22 Argentina 10, Wales 20 South Africa 17. Now let the games begin.

Follow me on Twitter @lookdownsouth

This blog is supported by Maximuscle, the sports nutrition choice of Courtney Lawes, Joe Simpson and the Welsh team. For more information on how Maximuscle is the Team Behind the Team, go to www.maximuscle.com/tbtt

Rugby World Cup 2011: My predictions – Scotland to beat England, an early exit for Ireland, Wales to top Pool C

Under 24 hours to go to Rugby World Cup 2011 kick-off (at the time of writing), so time to spell out how I think the pools will develop. Is this what I hope will happen, or think will occur? Not entirely sure myself – probably a mix of voices from the heart and the head – but no matter, here goes.

And please let me know how and where you agree or disagree.

Pool A

Very much a two-horse race, with the only real significant match on September 24 between New Zealand and their nemesis, France. On paper you'd have to say the All Blacks, but then you think back to 1999 and 2007, and suddenly it's one of THE biggest pool matches imaginable.

Can Les Bleus upset the apple cart true and proper by beating the hosts? Both will obviously want to win the group – thereby, on paper at least, securing an 'easier' quarter-final – but Pool B is wide open and coming second in Pool A might ultimately not be a massive price to pay.

Being the hosts has huge pros and cons for NZ – possibly unbearable pressure and expectations, but also masses of support. The current All Blacks seem to be open and relaxed, mingling with the public and coming across confident. Compare that with the siege mentality of previous campaigns (and failures), and they may just be on to a good thing here.

Prediction 1 NZ, 2 France.

Pool B

One of two 'pools of death'. And gut feel says this is so tight to call that bonus points – for scoring four tries or more or losing by seven points or under – may just come heavily into play.

Yes, Argentina seem not to be the force they were in 2007, but I think they may still be good enough to trouble their opponents. Fence-sitting? No way! England to beat the Pumas by a comfortable few, before backs-against-the-wall Argentina rumble Scotland.

All which sets up the group perfectly for a killer clash at Eden Park on October 1. And in an ugly, messy, attritional slug-fest among the two packs, I predict the Scots to squeeze home by a point or two (all courtesy of kicks). And so we're back in bonus-points territory and possibly points difference.

Prediction 1 England, 2 Scotland.

Pool C

The most predictable in terms of who'll finish on top. Can't see any of the four teams remotely threatening Australia. The Wallabies are also in the comfortable position of having played their two 'big' pool opponents by September 17, allowing some rest for key players in preparation for the play-offs.

Who'll finish second is the exciting bit. On paper it would seem to be Ireland by a country mile – but Italy will fancy their chances given Ireland's lacklustre warm-ups and the narrow 11-13 defeat in Rome in February. Having both lost to the Aussies come October 2, I think the pressure will simply mess with the Irish players' heads. Their dismal RWC record will play on their minds – and continue.

Prediction 1 Australia, 2 Italy.

Pool D

The most physical, closely contested group of the lot – and the other one in which bonus points could determine the final standings. Spare a thought for Namibia, who will be lambs to the slaughter in every match. And much as I like the Fijian way of playing – and despite their heroics last year – this year they'll end fourth in the pool, leaving it to South Africa, Wales and Samoa to slug it out.

This may sound like a caveat, but much depends on whether Wales learn to play the full 80 minutes or stick to exerting themselves only in the last 40, which, against the Boks and Samoa, could mean both games are lost for them by half-time.

Much has been made of Samoa's win over Australia in July, but it was against a mix-and-match team, so I'm going to discount that slightly. Ultimately, then, I somehow believe Wales will win both matches while South Africa's rather boring but efficient kick-and-chase game will stifle Samoa (of course, and I expect some biffo from both, this match could be won by the team who earns the fewer yellow/red cards).

Prediction 1 Wales, 2 South Africa.

Now kick that ball in anger!

Finally, you can still enter the competition to win Maximuscle gear and products by predicting the England v Argentina and Wales v South Africa scores (see the previous blog).

And very finally, my predictions for the big opening matches: NZ 35 Tonga 13, England 22 Argentina 10, Wales 20 South Africa 17. Now let the games begin.

Follow me on Twitter @lookdownsouth

This blog is supported by Maximuscle, the sports nutrition choice of Courtney Lawes, Joe Simpson and the Welsh team. For more information on how Maximuscle is the Team Behind the Team, go to www.maximuscle.com/tbtt