Rugby World Cup 2011: Graham Henry missed a trick by including Richie McCaw in XV to whack Wallabies. And my predictions…

Did New Zealand head coach Graham Henry miss a trick when he selected Richie McCaw to captain the All Blacks against Australia on Sunday?

Captain and commander: Might Graham Henry have left Richie McCaw on the bench just in case he's needed?

His injury again brings up that age-old debate – do you field a star player able to give only 70 per cent or so, or an average player giving 100 per cent? And McCaw is undoubtedly a star player, but reports still had it that McCaw was hobbling around town with a slight grimace on his face.

McCaw, even on one leg, is well worth his spot. Even just for the psychology of his presence. No argument there. But will he even be needed on the field, is my question? Why risk him possibly being injured (even more) for the final, when the All Blacks can subdue Horwill & Co without him on Sunday?

Yes, David Pocock is a big threat to the New Zealand dream of ending 24 years of hurt, but after the whole Bryce Lawrence furore I'm confident referee Craig Joubert will watch him like a hawk on Sunday and the openside flanker won't be half the force he was against South Africa.

Okay, maybe the All Blacks will need McCaw – if only to cut off Will Genia or put motor-mouth Quade Cooper in his place, but should the question be purely black or white, as in he plays or he's out of the match-day 22?

Should Henry not have sprung a surprise by naming him on the bench? Then bring him on when/if the All Blacks turn to custard, or keep him fresh and fit(ter) to deal with the menace that's Sam Warburton if the black machine whacks the Wallabies off the park.

 A simply crazy idea or did Henry miss a trick? And so on to my predictions for the weekend…

New Zealand v Australia Could come down to which loose forwards rattle the opponents' No 10 the most. Who'll show the most jitters, young, new call-up Aaron Cruden or gifted maverick Cooper? Will Australia be able to replicate their magnificent Brisbane performance in August? Or will they this week discover that, unlike the Springboks, you can't allow the All Blacks 70 per cent of possession and still win? 

Ultimately, too much class in the All Blacks to be outdone by an Australian team that imploded against Ireland and burgled a victory against South Africa. NZ 24 Australia 15.

Wales v France A mouth-watering match to start the weekend. Wales have been mammoth so far, hugely disciplined too. They've stepped up in each game after losing their pool opener. Have they mentally and/or physically got one or two more massive games in them? And how much will Rhys Priestland's injury hurt them?

The French, by contrast, have been loose canons, who bumbled their way through the pool stage and were helped to victory last week by England's ineptitude. Was that their customary one big game per World Cup? Or is that game still to come? This has the potential to be the match of RWC 2011.

I'm going to pick Wales' structured, overall game plan over the French's thrilling but hot-and-cold approach to their game, and say Wales 18 France 11.

Let me know how you see it…

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Rugby World Cup 2011: Will NZ even need Richie McCaw do whack the Wallabies? And my predictions…

Will he play? Won't he play? How do you handle a 'problem' like McCaw?

Captain and commander: Might Graham Henry leave Richie McCaw on the bench just in case he's needed?

His injury again brings up that age-old debate – do you field a star player able to give only 70 per cent or so, or an average player giving 100 per cent?

I know Steve Hansen has claimed McCaw is fit and will play at Eden Park, but I'm not convinced yet. Hansen seemed to whisper it, rather than say it loudly and confidently, and it appears he was sick of being asked the 'will he, won't he' question, that his answer was aimed simply at cutting short the press conference. Besides, reports have it widely that McCaw is still hobbling around town with a slight grimace on his face.

McCaw, even on one leg, is well worth his spot. Even just for the psychology of his presence. No argument there. But will he even be needed on the field, is my question? Why risk him possibly being injured for the final, when the All Blacks can subdue Horwill & Co without him on Sunday?

Yes, David Pocock is a big threat to the New Zealand dream of ending 24 years of hurt, but after the whole Bryce Lawrence furore I'm confident referee Craig Joubert will watch him like a hawk on Sunday and the openside flanker won't be half the force he was against South Africa.

Okay, maybe the All Blacks will need McCaw – if only to cut off Will Genia or put motor-mouth Quade Cooper in his place, but should the question be purely black or white, as in he plays or he's out of the match-day 22?

Might Graham Henry spring a surprise by naming him on the bench? Then bring him on when/if the All Blacks turn to custard, or keep him fresh and fit(ter) to deal with the menace that's Sam Warburton if the black machine whacks the Wallabies off the park.

Or if Henry picks him him for the starting XV, should he have considered keeping Captain Fantastic on the bench instead? A simply crazy idea or a viable middle road?

And with that my predictions for the weekend…

New Zealand v Australia Could come down to which loose forwards rattle the opponents' No 10 the most. Who'll show the most jitters, young, new call-up Aaron Cruden or gifted maverick Cooper? Will Australia be able to replicate their magnificent Brisbane performance in August? Or will they this week discover that, unlike the Springboks, you can't allow the All Blacks 70 per cent of possession and still win? 

Ultimately, too much class in the All Blacks to be outdone by an Australian team that imploded against Ireland and burgled a victory against South Africa. NZ 24 Australia 15.

Wales v France A mouth-watering match to start the weekend. Wales have been mammoth so far, hugely disciplined too. They've stepped up in each game after losing their pool opener. Have they mentally and/or physically got one or two more massive games in them? And how much will Rhys Priestland's injury hurt them?

The French, by contrast, have been loose canons, who bumbled their way through the pool stage and were helped to victory last week by England's ineptitude. Was that their customary one big game per World Cup? Or is that game still to come? This has the potential to be the match of RWC 2011.

I'm going to pick Wales' structured, overall game plan over the French's thrilling but hot-and-cold approach to their game, and say Wales 18 France 11.

Let me know how you see it…

Sponsored by Maximuscle and the Cyclone Challenge – build muscle in 30 days or your money back – www.maximuscle.com/cyclonechallenge

Rugby World Cup 2011: Predictions – Too little too late for Scotland, Samoa and Italy in battle of bonus points

Take your pick of headlines for this weekend’s rugby… Sweet and sour success for Scotland; Big hits but little luck for Samoa; Pasta and basta for Italy.

All three are tantalisingly close to the play-offs, but for different reasons they’ll all fall short of a quarter-final place.

Welcome to the start of the real world cup, a newspaper headline in Auckland read today, and they’re right. Come Sunday night and there will be elation and depression in almost equal measure. It’s the weekend of the bonus points.

Amazingly at this late stage in the pool games, only New Zealand are absolutely guaranteed a quarter-final berth irrespective of what happens in Pool A. Canada could still pip France to the runners-up place, but only a double-deluded dunce would see them beat the All Blacks with a bonus point in the process and France lose heavily to Tonga. So that’s settled.

Then it becomes interesting. Pools B and D will require bonus points to upset the current standings. Argentina will no doubt smash Georgia, so Scotland need not only beat old foe England at Eden Park on Saturday, but do so with four tries and deny England a losing bonus point.

A haggis or two too far? Absolutely – as Scottish fans here in Auckland readily admit. And yet, will this required hell-for-leather approach liberate the Scots for once and see them throw all caution to the wind?

I’ll predict Scotland to actually score a try or two – despite their lame duck performances at RWC 2011 so far – but to fall short in the end (and possibly even get beaten by England at the death as the clock ticks down and the dream dies fast). Scotland 21 England 19.

Likewise in Pool D, where the current table topper could still depart home on Monday. On most days I’d say smash-and-run Samoa have four tries in them, but they’ve looked hesitant at RWC2011 while South Africa are showing sharp and ruthless signs. Wales will do the business comfortably against Fiji on Sunday, so it’s goodbye Samoa at North Harbour on Friday. South Africa 37 Samoa 22.

The biggest and most intriguing battle looms in Pool C, where unbeaten Ireland could still exit early. And Italy don’t even need to score four tries to make that happen – though they’ll have to deny Declan Kidney’s team a losing bonus point.

But that’s poppycock. Italy's forwards are mostly awesome, but their backs often make a plate of spaghetti look orderly and organised. So Ireland 28 Italy 13.

Fair calls or ramblings of a madman as we start this weekend of shock and awe? Your calls please…

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Rugby World Cup 2011: Fiji v Samoa… far from the hype we expected but it keeps Pool D wide open

First all the hype, then the drabness, and finally some drama and partial redemption for this match. But it was far from vintage Pacific Island rugby.

For almost 60 minutes it seemed we'd witness an extreme rarity – neither Fiji nor Samoa scoring a try – and there was little show of the traditional flair, the sleight of hand, the blistering pace or the bone-shuddering hits.

Rather, it was bad handling, kicks instead of passing and a complete lack of spark that had the crowd resorting to Mexican Waves after only 26 minutes.

But then the sun came out and the match lit up, to give the vocal 60,327 crowd something to remember this encounter for.

Samoa's Paul Williams was sensational while Netani Talei and Gaby Lovobalavu tried to smash and bash their way through everything to salvage something for Fiji. Alas, too little too late.

The pre-match hype fell well short of the reality, but at least the result keeps Pool D extremely honest. Barring a massive upset in the other remaining games, South Africa v Samoa at North Harbour on Friday will decide the fortunes of all three. SA are in the driver's seat, but it could still come down to bonus points.

Who of the Springboks, Wales or Samoa will top the group – and who'll be heading home early?

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Rugby World Cup 2011: New Zealand v France … the All Blacks to shake off their French choking syndrome

New Zealand v France, it’s probably fair to say it’s all Kiwis versus the rest of the world, such has the fascination become with the All Blacks’ famous ‘choking’ at World Cups.

And it's comforting to see that there appear to be tens of thousands of Frenchies in town, kitted out in berets and yelling 'Allez Bleus' at anyone who cares to listen.

So, to ease my own anxieties I turned to the stats guru  to see if facts and figures can provide some comfort – and yes, they do (at least regarding the overall picture)

First the good stuff. Consider that over the years New Zealand and France have faced each other 49 times, the All Blacks winning 36, losing only 12 with one draw.

Consider too the ‘fortress’ that’s Eden Park. Played 67, won an impressive 55, with 10 defeats and two draws.

And break that down to these two teams playing at Eden Park, and New Zealand lead 6-2 from their eight encounters.

But then comes the sobering stuff… In RWC clashes they’ve both won two matches – who could forget France reducing the All Blacks to quivering wrecks in 1999 and 2007, .while NZ emerged on top in 1987 and 2003.

And then there’s the Eden Park omen. While NZ have been unbeaten there in the last 24 tests (23 victories, one draw), their last defeat – in July 1994 – was against, well, none other than the French. Who then, just for good measure, proved they like facing the ABs in New Zealand by beating them in Dunedin in 2009.

Thankfully, much as stats can be interesting, they can also be lies and damn lies. And Saturday night will all come down to what makes rugby the spectacular game it is… Mighty collisions upfront, clever running lines at the back, heroic defence, the odd lucky bounce of that strangely shaped ball, the passion, the grit (and hopefully not a single contentious decision by a match official).

Time to stick my neck out again. The All Blacks to rip that RWC hand from around their throats and deal to the French true and proper. Something like 34-14.

What do you make of it? And predictions please.

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