Which will happen first: Packers lose or Colts win? [Poll]

After watching Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers destroy the Minnesota Vikings, 45-7, on Monday night, it's hard to imagine these guys ever losing again. They're 9-0 this year and 15-0 since their last loss, to the New England Patriots on Dec. 19 last year.

But the Packers are still seven wins away from joining the 2007 Patriots as the only teams in NFL history with 16-0 seasons -- and many of their opponents should put up a bit more of a fight than the hapless Vikings, including five teams with winning records and six that will likely be fighting for playoff spots.

After hosting the struggling Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) next week, Green Bay visits the Detroit Lions (6-3) for a Thanksgiving meeting between NFC North rivals. Then on Dec. 4 comes a road game against the New York Giants (6-3) -- the team that gave those 2007 Patriots everything they could handle in the final game of the regular season and then prevented them from going 19-0 by winning Super Bowl XLII.

That is followed by games against a pair of AFC West contenders -- home versus the Oakland Raiders (5-4) on Dec. 11 and visiting the Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) on Dec. 18. The Packers finish off the season with home games against division rivals, the Chicago Bears (6-3) on Dec. 25 and the Lions on Jan. 1.

Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts (0-10) are trying to avoid joining the 2008 Detroit Lions as the only 0-16 teams in league history. Two of their best chances for a victory come the next time they take the field -- Nov. 27 hosting the Carolina Panthers (2-7) -- and in the last game of the season -- Jan. 1 at the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6).

In between, the Colts have dates at the Patriots (6-3) on Dec. 4, at the Baltimore Ravens (6-3, including losses to the Jaguars and the 3-6 Seattle Seahawks) on Dec. 11, home against the Tennessee Titans (5-4) on Dec. 18 and home against the Houston Texans (7-3, but may be without starting quarterback Matt Schaub) on Dec. 22.

Writers from around Tribune Co. will discuss which will happen first, the Packers lose or the Colts win. Check back throughout the day for more responses, and join the discussion by voting in the poll and leaving a comment.

RELATED:

Frank Gore injury doesn't appear to be serious

David Nelson scores for Bills, gives ball to Cowboys cheerleader

Patriots' Rob Ninkovich, 49ers' David Akers get career upgrades

Left photo: Indianapolis quarterback Curtis Painter. Credit: Sam Riche / MCT

Right photo: Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Credit: Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images

Tebow, the Colts, the Jets: Judy Battista Answers Your Questions

Is Tim Tebow 100% responsible for his terrible performance, or are there other bigger factors to account for? (i.e., the play calling, the porous o-line etc. etc.).–Justin, Quad Cities

Good question. No quarterback – neither Joe Montana nor Joe Schmo – is ever entirely to blame (or entirely to credit) for the performance of the offense. Not for nothing does everyone say it starts upfront. Tebow has been under a lot of pressure, which is only exacerbated by the fact that he is indecisive and tends to hold the ball too long and that even when he is prepared to throw, his long throwing motion means it takes him an extra split-second to get the ball out. And it certainly doesn’t help Tebow that the Broncos traded their most reliable receiver – Brandon Lloyd – right before Tebow got his first start this season. So, this is certainly not the most favorable situation for any quarterback, least of all one who has a big learning curve of his own to master. The Broncos tried to put in more Tebow-suited plays last week (playing out of the shotgun, some read-option like he ran at Florida), but it’s not that easy to have the entire offense switch mid-season to a different offensive style. It means different blocking assignments for the linemen, different runs for the running backs, perhaps different routes for the receivers. And in the middle of the season? Again, you can’t blame Tebow for how difficult all of that is. He has plenty of his own things to overcome – most important his accuracy (which is related to inconsistent footwork) and his reading of defenses — and certainly his performances have not been encouraging so far. But it’s been only two games and plenty of other things have to improve to make this offense work – not just Tebow.

Mike Wallace has been impressing Steeler Nation this year. Great fun to watch him outrun his coverage on deep throws — except against the Patriots, where he caught seven short passes instead. Was that a function of the Patriots’ defense or the Steelers’ game plan? Will other teams be able to keep him from the deep ball going forward?–Saltwater, Durham, N.C.

Wallace’s role last Sunday was a function of how the Steelers chose to attack the Patriots and what the Patriots were determined to take away. Early, the Patriots wanted to take away the deep ball. Fine. The Steelers instead carved up the middle of the field (remember pass after pass to Heath Miller?), going on long, time-consuming drives that kept the Patriots’ offense off the field. As impressive as those quick, deep strikes to Wallace are, that wouldn’t have keep Tom Brady on the bench enough. Can other teams keep Wallace in front of them? Sure. If they are also willing to leave huge voids in the middle of the field like the Patriots did. The really jarring part of the game to me was that the Patriots got the Steelers in third and long repeatedly (nine times by my count) and the Steelers converted repeatedly (five times). If other defenses – like, say, the Ravens this Sunday — can get off the field on third down, you’d like their odds a lot better.

(Interesting note: to simulate Wallace’s speed in practice last week, the Patriots had the scout team player who was mimicking Wallace line up two yards offside.)

How impressed should we be with this year’s rookie quarterbacks (especially Cam Newton, Andy Dalton and Christian Ponder)? It’s tempting to make historical comparisons, but unlike their predecessors, these players have been running pro-style offenses since college. Of course, last year’s rookies had similar college training and arguably haven’t done as well. Is this year’s class truly special?–Peter G., Minneapolis

Pretty impressed, especially considering they had no mini-camps, OTAs, meetings, film sessions, etc. until training camps opened in late July. It’s hard to say last year’s rookies didn’t do as well – Sam Bradford was pretty great as a rookie (a change to a new offense and injuries galore don’t help this year) and I think everyone can safely agree that Tebow was drafted higher than he should have been. But back to this year – it’s inarguable that Cam Newton is special. He’s an elite player and his work with Chris Weinke during the lockout clearly got him up to speed on the playbook much more than anyone expected. Coaches raved about his work ethic as soon as he got to camp and that is showing. He terrifies defenses not just with his rocket of an arm, but his ability to run (also, he is huge – I didn’t realize that until I stood next to him a few days before the draft). Dalton is benefitting from having quick chemistry with A.J. Green but his stat line (nine TDs and seven INTs) is more typical of what you’d expect from a rookie. And we have too small a sample size on Ponder. But generally, we’re seeing more rookies make quicker impacts because college football now looks more like pro football. Nobody runs the wishbone anymore and then has to make the change to the pro style – that’s why we’re seeing more rookies starting right away.

Looking at the Colts’ collapse, does it mean that Peyton Manning was even more central to this team’s success than anyone knew? Other quarterback-dependent teams have not had the same drastic drop-off when they lost their starter for the year (e.g. the Patriots in 2008). The Colts were in the Super Bowl in 2009, then barely lost to the Jets in the playoffs last year. They’ve done well, even with major contributors injured, as long as they had Manning. Are they really this bad without him?–XA, Michigan

Short answer: yes. I wrote about this last Sunday – I think we may have underestimated how critical Manning was, which is saying something considering he’s a four time league M.V.P. No team is as dependent on the quarterback as the Colts were on Manning, though. All of their other personnel decisions were made to build the team around him. There was little running game, the offensive line was built mostly for pass protection not run-blocking, the defense was built small and fast to rush the passer, because it assumed the Colts would usually be playing with a lead – because Manning would get it – and they paid almost no attention to having a backup ready to go because Manning was an ironman. It’s a recipe for collapse if you then lose the one player you simply can’t lose.

Having said all that, I’m shocked that they are winless right now. When it was clear Manning probably wouldn’t play this season, my guess was they would win maybe four or five games. They have talent on the team – Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney, Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne. Those are players that any other team would be delighted to have on their rosters. I am stunned at how other parts of the team now seem to be regressing. Manning wasn’t playing defense or special teams – it’s not him who is out there missing tackles and botching punt coverage. Chris Polian, the Colts’ general manager, told me something early this season that really rings true: a player of Manning’s caliber covers up a lot of sins on the roster. Now we know just how bad those sins are.

Also, what’s the point of forcing linemen to wear microphones?–Justin, Quad Cities

Linemen are asked to wear microphones to enhance the sound for television broadcasts. It used to be that the member of the officiating crew who lined up right in the middle of the defense would pick up those sounds. But when he was moved to behind the offense for his own safety, that sound was lost – and networks wanted it back because they believe it enhances the viewing experience. In the ultra-paranoid world of the N.F.L., some people wonder if opposing coaches can tape the broadcasts and pick up and decipher play calls and blocking calls. But the networks pay a lot of money for rights to broadcast those games and they will figure out a way to get their sound.

Based on what you know now, which two teams are probable participants in the Super Bowl next year?–Mark Sanford, Orinda, Calif.

Thanks for giving me a chance to revise my Super Bowl picks. I think I went with Saints vs. Patriots in the season preview. That doesn’t look like the worst pick right now, although the Packers would look a lot better (I picked them to win last year, did I mention that?). Repeating at the Super Bowl is hard, and the Packers’ defense hasn’t been as formidable in the first half this season as it was last season. But I would not pick against Aaron Rodgers right now, no matter who he is facing. He is the best quarterback in the league and the Packers are the best team and there is not a close second. The Patriots’ struggling defense makes me nervous but since there is no dominant team in the A.F.C. right now, I’m not sure they can’t at least get to the Super Bowl anyway. It will just depend on who they face in the playoffs. If it’s a team with a super-elite quarterback (Steelers), the Patriots could go out early because their pass defense is a mess.The Steelers looked pretty good last Sunday and they certainly reinserted themselves into the post-season conversation. But until somebody in the A.F.C. separates themselves clearly from the pack, I wouldn’t know who to change my pick to. So to answer your question, I’d probably just stick with my preseason pick until further notice. But ask me again in a few weeks and I might feel differently.

Are the Bills for real?–Jonathan, New Jersey

Yes, I think they are (caveat: if Ryan Fitzpatrick is healthy). Again, there is no dominant A.F.C. team and with the Patriots and Jets looking vulnerable there is plenty of room for the Bills to slip in there and at least get into wild card position. They already have a victory in hand over the Patriots and they get the Jets at home this Sunday. A victory would put the Bills in a very nice spot at the midway point.

Re: Sam Borden on the yo-yoing of Ryan Perrilloux, does this ever work out well for the player? Obviously at $5,700 per week it is cheap insurance for the team. But are there example of players who have gone through this in recent years and then caught on to be regular team members?

This sounds a lot like the pro football version of the Rudy Ruettiger story at Notre Dame, but probably without as happy an ending.–Leonard, New York City

James Harrison spent plenty of time on practice squads and was let go by Baltimore before finally sticking with the Steelers. It’s turned out really nicely for him and the Steelers. It is certainly an unusual way to get to be a defensive player of the year, but it can be done.

What will it take for the Jets to move past Brian Schottenheimer? Predictably, the Jets offense will bomb this week. Will that finally prove enough? Why does an underachiever have such a hold on this organization?–kman, New York City

This question comes up at least every other week. You have to remember, Schottenheimer is calling things that he and Rex Ryan feel comfortable doing with Mark Sanchez. Does that mean they don’t have confidence in the quarterback? Perhaps. Should they have more? Maybe. I don’t know what will happen this season. But you have to think that if they fail to make the playoffs – with Sanchez not showing any appreciable signs of improvement in his third season – Ryan might consider making a change. But Ryan knows more about what Sanchez is capable of than the rest of us and he might know that Schottenheimer is being hamstrung by Sanchez as much as Sanchez is being hamstrung by Schottenheimer. One other thing: the offensive line is not as good this season as it has been in the past and the running game is clearly not the force it was or that the Ground and Pound philosophy demands. That doesn’t help a quarterback or offensive coordinator either.

How well do the Bengals match up against the Steelers and the Ravens, division rivals they have yet to play this year?–Mordecai, Brooklyn, N.Y.

What the Bengals do best is play defense, particularly against the run (they are ranked second in rushing yards allowed defense). That should be a bigger problem for the Ravens, who – if they’re playing smart – rely on Ray Rice more than the Steelers do on Rashard Mendenhall, especially because of Joe Flacco’s inconsistent performances lately. Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has had a nice season so far but welcome, rookie, to two terrifying defenses in the Steelers and the Ravens. If the Steelers can befuddle Tom Brady and take Wes Welker out of his game, they can surely handle Dalton and A.J. Green. And the Ravens merely have the top-ranked defense in the league and simply crush quarterbacks – they have 25 sacks, second in the league. The Steelers play the Bengals next Sunday in Cincinnati and then the Bengals go to Baltimore the following week. That stretch will give us a much better idea of how the Bengals stack up. But long-term, Dalton and Green give them plenty of hope for the future.

For the Bears, a Fake That Was Almost Fabulous

Coming soon to a playing field near you is a trick play so clever it’s likely to be imitated on punt returns throughout the land. Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers, speaking for the team that got duped, called it “the most incredible play I’ve ever seen,” a convincing pantomime that left people “wondering what the heck just happened.” His teammate Greg Jennings thought it was “the best play I’ve ever seen.”

With just over a minute left in the Packers 27-17 beat-down of the Bears, Green Bay punter Tim Masthay got off a towering kick meant to pin Chicago deep in its territory. The ball was heading left but return man Devin Hester pretended it was going right, staring into the sky at a pretend pigskin and moving into place behind a wall of play-acting teammates. Ten of the Packers, looking at Hester rather than the ball, ran toward him like autograph hounds at a Justin Bieber sighting.

Johnny Knox of the Bears had lined up in position to block one of the Green Bay gunners. Just prior to the snap, he raced backward, putting himself in position to catch the kick over his shoulder. The only Packer following the actual arc of the punt was Masthay himself, and he proved no match for Knox, who had two blockers ahead of him to clear the path to the end zone. It appeared to be an 89-yard touchdown, which would have made it a 27-24 game and put the Bears in position to win or tie if they recovered an on-side kick.

Instead Chicago was penalized for holding. Corey Graham, re-signed this year by the Bears for his usually-heady special teams play, had grabbed one of the Packers up field. “It was a bad play by me,” Graham confessed later, pointing out the obvious, that he had committed a foul 30 or 40 yards away from the ball on a player who was soon running in the wrong direction. “I should have let him go, just don’t even touch him.”

The Oscar goes to: Devin Hester. The Razzie to: Corey Graham.

2011 Green Bay Packers Season Preview

Andy Benoit is previewing all 32 N.F.L. teams. Today, he turns to the Packers, the defending champions.

These days, when a team wins a championship, it takes about 30 seconds for people to start wondering if we’re looking at the beginning of a dynasty. It’s as if we’re discussing Chinese history and not a pro sports team. The expectation of a dynasty is as unrealistic as it is unfair.

Except, perhaps, in the Green Bay Packers’ case.

O.K., maybe talking about a dynasty is no less unfair to the Packers than it was to the ’09 Saints or ’11 Mavericks or the ’08 Phillies. But it’s much harder to blame people for wading into the topic this time. Thanks to brilliant long-term roster building by General Manager Ted Thompson, this cohesive, rising team is deep and headlined by handfuls of stars in their prime. The brightest happens to play the most important position, making this the first team since the Montana-Young 49ers to replace a top shelf superstar quarterback with another top shelf superstar quarterback.

Aaron Rodgers is the primary reason people are talking about a longtime powerhouse in Green Bay. But dynasties are like Jenga towers: they can only be built one piece at a time. Thus, the focus is entirely on chasing another Lombardi Trophy in 2011-12. It will be interesting to see just how sharp that focus is. How does a young team stay hungry after  ring ceremonies, media appearances and a break from training camp to visit the White House?

Normally, defending champions can use minicamps and OTA’s to fight complacency. Even then, it’s a difficult battle (just ask the ’09 Steelers). The Packers were one of the few teams whose players did not hold their own organized workouts during the lockout. Whether that makes them fresh and alert or sloppy and satisfied is a matter of interpretation, but you can bet observers will make a declaration one way or the other come September. And that declaration, regardless of its direction or validity, will bring about more pressure.

But no need to waste our time and energy predicting whether the Packers will be “focused” in 2011. Focus is impossible to forecast without eventually resorting to pure guessing. Instead, let’s worry about how this team will tactically go about repeating its success.

The popular assumption is that having everyone healthy after 16 players finished last season on injured reserve will only make the Packers better. But that’s not necessarily true. Tight end Jermichael Finley is the only genuine difference-maker returning from I.R.. Everyone else is a role player who provides depth (Ryan Grant fans, bite your tongues here – we’ll get to the fifth-year running back later).

We often make the mistake of viewing depth as a propagator of success, when in fact, it’s really a symptom. In other words, the Packers aren’t the deepest team in football because Thompson hit home runs with many of his middle-and late-round draft picks; the Packers are the deepest team in football because Thompson hit home runs with his coaching hires. Coach Mike McCarthy is one of the most innovative offensive minds in the league today. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers might be the best 3-4 and sub-package strategist of this era. Green Bay’s coaching staff has installed great systems. When you have great systems, players are put in position to excel, making it easy to cultivate depth.  Far more significant than getting a slew of players back from injured reserve is having every member of last year’s coaching staff back in 2011 save for receivers coach Jimmy Robinson (now in Dallas). That’s rare.

There’s a caveat, though. McCarthy’s and Capers’s systems might create good players, but the systems only work because of a few transcendent players. That’s the real key – the Packers have superstars in exactly the right places.

Offense

A trademark of Mike McCarthy’s system is its transformability. The Packers can line up in a spread formation on one down, a jumbo run bunch on the next down and any base set in between. Like the Saints and Patriots, they have more packages than opponents  have time to prepare for.

But if you had to pigeonhole McCarthy’s system, you could probably get away with calling it a “spread West Coast offense.” The Packers spend considerable time slinging the ball out of 3 x 1 receiver sets. That was their primary formula down the stretch last season and the backbone of their game plan in Super Bowl XLV.

It works because there’s a superstar in the only position that a top-flight N.F.L. offense demands one. Take history out of the equation and you could make a strong argument that Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback right now. He has better velocity and accuracy on throws through tight windows than anyone in the game (which is why he’s borderline invincible in the red zone). His mastery in the pocket is fostered by a release that’s as quick as any passer’s. He is athletic enough to buy time and scramble for positive yardage. In fact, only one quarterback is definitively superior to Rodgers in this realm (Michael Vick). And rarely does Rodgers need to showcase his impressive improvisational skills because he just so happens to have one of the sharpest presnap minds in the league (his brilliance with dummy snap counts is a tremendous aid in this capacity). No other quarterback in the game has such a complete toolbox.

Rodgers’s excellence has enabled McCarthy to design a passing game that makes extremely clever use of receiver distribution and route combinations. The Packers prove that most mismatches are created simply by where certain players line up. McCarthy loves to put three wide receivers to one side of the field and leave Greg Jennings as the isolated wideout (the X receiver) on the other side.

This particular spread almost always forces a defense to guard at least one of the three receivers with a safety (which is a mismatch considering Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson and James Jones all have stellar speed and quickness, and could all be a No. 1 receiver for a small handful of teams). It also often forces defenses to cover Jennings man-to-man (which is a mismatch given that he’s a legitimate top-five receiver). If there’s no safety help on Jennings, that’s where Rodgers goes.

It’s scary to think what McCarthy will come up with now that he has Jermichael Finley and, if the second-round rookie develops quickly, Randall Cobb, at his disposal. From a pure athletic standpoint, the freakishly supple Finley is the most gifted tight end the N.F.L. has ever seen. Obviously, he has to stay healthy and hone his craft for several years before we can even consider talking about him in those terms, but right now, potential alone makes him a one-of-a-kind nightmare for opposing defenses. As for Cobb, he’s a lightning quick multi-tooled weapon.

Credit McCarthy for so often resisting the urge to become a pass-only offense. He understands the value of diversity and being able to control the tempo and clock if need be. It doesn’t take a dominant rushing attack to do this, which is fortunate because the Packers don’t have one. Ryan Grant is proficient, but his mechanical style allows him to  gain only the yards that the play’s design and blockers’ execution presents. He’s not powerful or explosive enough to consistently create on his own.

That’s fine – as Grant has shown before, a player like this can still rush for over 1,200 yards if he’s smart. Rising second-year back James Starks will warrant carries in 2011, but if Ted Thompson and his staff viewed him as a long-term featured back, they probably wouldn’t have drafted bruising north/south runner Alex Green in the third round. Then again, perhaps Green is here to replace Grant, who’s scheduled for free agency in 2012. The Packers can decide after the season.

In the meantime, Grant’s set to start in Week 1. Starks, an improving pass-blocker, can handle the third down duties that Brandon Jackson (now a Brown) left behind, though fullback John Kuhn may have a leg up on him here. Kuhn will also handle short-yardage carries, which means Green will watch and learn from the bottom of the depth chart.

This once-maligned offensive line has been restored and could be one of the league’s best in three years. Last year’s first-round pick, Bryan Bulaga, doesn’t have the quickness to shine on the left side. That’s also fine – the Packers quickly made him a cog at right tackle and went out and got Derek Sherrod in the first-round of this year’s draft. Sherrod could initially get a look at left guard – he’s currently trailing unspectacular but experienced T.J. Lang in a competition to replace the departed Daryn Colledge – but figures to be the eventual heir to left tackle Chad Clifton. At 35, Clifton was supposed to be washed up by now, but he’s coming off one of the best second-half seasons of his rock-solid career. Inside, center Scott Wells is a revered leader and mobile run-blocker. Right guard Josh Sitton just turned 25 and is already the league’s best at his position.

Defense

McCarthy’s offense is built around one superstar. Dom Capers’s defense, which is a versatile and aggressive 3-4-slash-2-4-5, is built around two: slot cornerback Charles Woodson and outside linebacker Clay Matthews. Without a first-class talent at each of these spots, the system wouldn’t exist. Woodson is a sublime blitzer who can also sniff out the run and cover just about any wide receiver or tight end man-to-man. His versatility gives the system its dimension. Matthews is a devastatingly fast edge-rusher who, when given an inkling of space, can slip around any blocker. His speed gives the system its potency. Of the two, Woodson is more valuable simply because so much of what Capers does is about creating disguise before the snap.

The two superstars don’t deserve all the credit. The Packer defense is what the rest of the N.F.L. aspires to because it’s rich with myriad sub packages and presnap looks. This requires smart, multidimensional players in all spots. And because so many of Green Bay’s befuddling tactics rely on zone coverage inside and man coverage outside, this system specifically demands at least one, and preferably two, top shelf cover corners.

Last year’s Super Bowl run probably wouldn’t have happened without the stunning growth of Tramon Williams. Released by the Texans just days before Week 1 as an undrafted rookie in ’06, Williams signed with Green Bay two months later and spent a few years toiling at the bottom of the depth chart. He was an unrefined, flag-drawing liability as a fill-in starter in ’08. An injury to Al Harris led to another fill-in role in ’09, and by the end of that season Williams had started to capitalize on his raw athleticism by becoming a playmaker. By the middle of ’10, he’d become a more consistent playmaker and, more importantly, a fulltime play-stopper. That prompted Thompson to sign him to a four-year, $33 million extension during the season (i.e. before the Packers could win a Super Bowl with Williams shutting down opposing No. 1 receivers and suddenly commanding near-Asomugha money).

Maybe the next man Thompson should sign long-term is defensive backs coach Darren Perry, given that 2010 undrafted rookie Sam Shields appears to be climbing the same staircase to stardom as Williams. (For what it’s worth, Perry’s name was mentioned in several defensive coordinator searches this past off-season.) Shields gives the Packers a second outside stopper, which allows less reliable 27-year-old backups Pat Lee and Jarrett Bush to play more zone as inside dime defenders.

Nick Collins’s range in centerfield also aids this secondary. Collins is given more read-and-react assignments than a typical free safety and has handled the responsibility well enough to earn three straight Pro Bowl trips. At strong safety, second-year pro Morgan Burnett is back from a season-ending knee injury, while backup Charlie Peprah has proven serviceable (though just barely – Peprah’s not the soundest open-field tackler).

Because Woodson is such an effective tackler who compensates for subpar strength by eluding blocks with quickness and leverage, the Packers are willing to remain in their 2-4-5 package even when offenses line up with two tight ends or two running backs. This isn’t to say the Packers do this every time, but the option is there. Thus, it’s not earth-shattering news that B.J. Raji – who has a thundering burst and is on track to be this D’s third superstar, if he’s not already – is moving from nose tackle back to end. He and Ryan Pickett (moving from end back to nose tackle) will line up all over the front during the course of a game.

Mike Neal, a second-round pick in ’10 who missed 14 games last season with a torn rotator cuff, will work ahead of C.J. Wilson and Jarius Wynn in a rotation at the third defensive line position. Space-eating (and everything-else-eating) veteran Howard Green will also get snaps.

An equally deep rotation could take place at the outside linebacker position opposite Matthews. The rash of injuries in 2010 led to Frank Zombo, Erik Walden and Brad Jones starting games at this spot. Zombo has reportedly had the best camp of the three and is in line to start in Week 1. Walden is clearly a better athlete than Zombo, but his run defense is iffy. Jones is probably the best pure pass-rusher of the bunch but isn’t as versatile as Zombo.

Saving the most mundane for last, we get to the inside linebackers. At his best, A.J. Hawk epitomizes a solid puzzle piece (which is a far less insulting characterization than it sounds). Desmond Bishop has enough pop and quickness that Capers will design a few interior blitzes for him each game.

Special Teams

Re-signing kicker Mason Crosby was Thompson’s top priority this past summer. Punter Tim Masthay was very impressive down the stretch last season. Randall Cobb is assuming the punt return duties from Tramon Williams and competing with Alex Green for kick returns.

Bottom Line

On paper this is a better team than a year ago. Having worked together in the same system for several years should be advantageous early in this post-lockout season. A prediction for the Packers comes down to a person’s gut feeling about how the team will respond to the emotional demands of defending a title. The personal hunch here is there’ll be some sort of letdown. But that’s just a guess.

Predicted Finish: 1st N.F.C. North

Andy Benoit is the founder of NFLTouchdown.com and covers the N.F.L. for CBSsports.com. He can be reached at andy.benoit@NFLtouchdown.com.