The Falcons told us everything about their intentions for 2011 on April 28. That night General Manager Thomas Dimitroff traded a king’s ransom to Cleveland to move up and draft Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones with the sixth overall pick. Dimitroff initially carved out a name for himself during a five-year run as the director of college scouting for the New England Patriots; at his core, trading two first-round draft picks, a second-rounder and a pair of fourth-rounders just to move up 21 spots had to feel almost like trading a piece of his soul.
But for any general manager, that’s a small price to pay for a serious shot at a Lombardi Trophy. And it’s not as if this Falcons brain trust doesn’t know what it’s doing. Since Arthur Blank turned his damaged post-Vick organization over to Dimitroff and Coach Mike Smith in 2008, Atlanta has gone 33-15, with two postseason appearances. And all while laying a foundation.
That foundation spells stability in the long term, but what Dimitroff tacitly acknowledged by trading up for Jones was that this current team’s window of opportunity will begin to close in 2012. This makes the bold move all the more commendable, as most G.M.’s err on the side of caution by waiting for proof that the window is indeed closing (by then, it’s almost always too late).
On the surface, Atlanta’s window may appear to still be opening. After all, quarterback Matt Ryan is in only his fourth season. The defense features a core of high-drafted younger players – like middle linebacker Curtis Lofton, safety William Moore, outside linebacker Sean Weatherspoon and defensive tackles Peria Jerry and Corey Peters – who are, or will soon be, approaching their prime. And this is a club that entered the 2010 postseason as the N.F.C.’s No. 1 seed.
But look a little closer and you’ll see what Dimitroff sees: an offense that ranked 31st in pass plays over 20 yards last season and was guided by the smashmouth principle of high-volume running out of jumbo personnel packages. Twenty years ago, this formula was golden. But today, it’s anachronistic. The offensive coordinator, Mike Mularkey, has made it work the past two years, but the bell cow he rides, running back Michael Turner, is 29 and destined to soon hit the same wall that Clinton Portis, Edgerrin James, Shaun Alexander and virtually every other running back has eventually hit. When Turner does, expect the Falcons to push the reset button and write a more modern, pass-oriented playbook.
The hope is that the finger pushing this inevitable button will have a three-something carat ring on it. Hence, the “all-in” campaign of 2011. As part of this plan, Dimitroff re-signed two of the three free agents from Atlanta’s unathletic but uncommonly cohesive offensive line (left guard Justin Blalock and right tackle Tyson Clabo were brought back; right guard Harvey Dahl got away to St. Louis). Dimitroff also welcomed back the future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez, who had briefly contemplated retirement. He wisely accepted that the Falcons’ lopsided home playoff loss last January was more a product of Green Bay’s brilliance than his defense’s shortcomings. Thus, the only major addition to Mike Smith’s 4-3 unit was the former Vikings end Ray Edwards (whom Atlanta got at the great price of $11 million guaranteed). And, as already explained, Dimitroff drafted Jones with the idea that he will be the additional piece of firepower that this old-school offense needs.
The window of opportunity has already been jumped through. What we’re waiting to see is the flight and landing.
Offense
Obviously, Atlanta’s grand plans for 2011 are contingent on Matt Ryan taking that next step. As a pocket passer, Ryan has shown a little less consistency and assertiveness the past two years than the droves of admirers would have guessed after his impressive 2008 rookie season. But this type of high-level criticism falls only on a 26-year-old quarterback who shows genuine signs of stardom. (With an average quarterback, like, say, Jason Campbell or even Matt Schaub, we’d still be talking at this point about broader things like learning the system and becoming a leader.)
Ryan’s impressive poise, leadership and passing tools have propagated high expectations. The addition of Julio Jones undoubtedly elevates those expectations – and rightfully so. Where once Ryan was relying on a plodding possession target named Michael Jenkins (now a Viking), he now has an explosive downfield threat who can attack the spaces that secondaries vacate when double-teaming the perennial 1,200-yard superstar Roddy White. It’s on Ryan to be less of a caretaker and more of a playmaker.
If Jones can stay healthy (he has persevered through some recent foot issues) and adapt to the pro game quickly, we will probably be able to assess Ryan’s performance by examining Tony Gonzalez’s reception total. Though the 35-year-old Gonzalez can still play, he’s strictly an underneath receiver these days. He has long been Ryan’s safety valve but should be relegated to a tertiary option this season. In very rudimentary terms, the Falcons brought in Jones not because they want to pass more but because they want to pass farther downfield. There are only so many receptions to go around. The hope is some of Gonzalez’s will go to the No. 2 receiver.
In a perfect world, this principle would have applied last year with Harry Douglas, but injuries and inadequate chemistry with Ryan have limited him. Douglas, a speedy, diminutive fourth-year pro, will be used in a few gadget plays this season, but given Mike Mularkey’s predilection for two-tight end and fullback-inclusive formations, don’t expect him, or any third receiver, to contribute significantly.
Adding Jones was not just about improving the passing game; in ranking 26th in yards per carry last season, the Falcons learned that their rushing attack could be stymied by an aggressive eight-man defensive front. This is a result of Michael Turner being a yards-after-contact runner lacking the speed and agility to make sharp cuts or turn the corner. If the Falcons want lateral movement in the running game, they must generate it with presnap motion from tight ends Justin Peelle or Michael Palmer (both capable blockers) and the wide receivers (all of whom are required in this scheme to be superb blockers – including Jones, who intrigued the Falcons in part because he was willing to be physical in Alabama’s run-first offense).
But even with presnap motion, a flashy ground game will be hard for Atlanta to muster. The only offensive lineman capable of traipsing beyond the line of scrimmage is 333-pound left guard Justin Blalock, and he is not often expected to reach even the second level.
Blalock is Atlanta’s best lineman, although during free agency, right tackle Tyson Clabo was lauded by many as an underrated sixth-year pro on the rise. Clabo is an excellent puzzle piece, but he is not an elite offensive lineman as some have suggested. There is a reason the Falcons prefer to keep him off an island in pass protection.
That said, Clabo is critical to the puzzle this season because, in the slot next to him, out is Harvey Dahl and in is Mike Johnson, an untested third-round pick from a year ago. As for the rest of the puzzle: the durable center Todd McClure is 34 but still has enough left, and left tackle Sam Baker is adequate (but only adequate) when healthy.
With their continued commitment to a powerful front, it is surprising the Falcons have not re-signed the backup running back Jason Snelling. His downhill style was an excellent fit for spelling Turner and operating behind the thumping lead-blocker Ovie Mughelli. Snelling could also catch dump-off passes underneath – something Turner can’t do. With the undrafted second-year pro Gartrell Johnson being too stiff for the pros, Atlanta’s only viable backup running back is the fifth-round rookie Jacquizz Rodgers, a shifty 5-foot-6 Danny Woodhead type who will be asked to fill the role that the electrifying but oft-injured Jerious Norwood ultimately could not fill.
Defense
There is the belief that Mike Smith’s 4-3 defense (coordinated by Brian VanGorder) is a vanilla zone-based unit. In actuality, the Falcons are aggressive in a lot of their zone blitz concepts – they just execute those blitzes out of more base formations instead of amoeba looks.
Blitzing out of base formations puts a lot of pressure on your cornerbacks. True to form, Dunta Robinson did not quite live up to his six-year, $57 million billing in his first season as a Falcon, but his uncommon closing quickness makes him just good enough for opposing quarterbacks to think twice. Left cornerback Brent Grimes is sounder than Robinson and has really improved his awareness as a zone defender in recent years. His small stature can be enticing to pick on. (Ever seen Grimes try to drag down a ballcarrier? It’s like watching a kindergartner try to lift a refrigerator.) But being frequently targeted also led to Grimes intercepting five passes and breaking up 23 more in 2010.
Because Chris Owens has not lived up to his third-round billing, slot cornerback has been a revolving door for this defense. Brian Williams, a firm-tackling veteran, held down the fort there last season, but as of early August, he had not been re-signed. If Owens again struggles, last year’s fifth-round pick, Dominique Franks, could get a look.
The pressure that Atlanta’s base formation blitzes put on the corners on passing downs is not as intense as the pressure that is put on the safeties every down. Because the Falcons regularly use over and under shifts with their linebackers – a concept that makes the strongside linebacker a de facto fifth defensive lineman and the other two linebackers inside players – Thomas DeCoud and William Moore are often responsible for containing an entire outside run gap. This responsibility is in addition to their pass coverage assignments, which makes them vulnerable to play-action. But it also makes them more relevant against the run – Moore especially. After an injury-riddled rookie season in 2009, Moore, a second-rounder from Missouri, is blossoming into the game-changing thumper he was drafted to be. More impressive are his better-than-expected range and awareness in coverage, which afford Smith and VanGorder the benefit of disguise and aggression.
As for those over/under shifting linebackers: middle man Curtis Lofton is a patient reader and stout tackler who is not quite athletic or explosive enough to dominate sideline to sideline. Strongside ‘backer Sean Weatherspoon has the physical tools to justify his first-round status of a year ago. He was drafted primarily for his pass coverage, and in this sense, he has been fine. But Weatherspoon must make quicker decision against the run; otherwise, he will lose snaps to Stephen Nicholas again. Or maybe he will lose the snaps to the veteran Mike Peterson, now that Nicholas appears headed for a starting job. Experience in Smith’s scheme allows Peterson to play with an aggression that compensates for any steps his 35-year-old body has lost. But Nicholas is the more limber pass defender and affords the front seven more flexibility, especially in blitz design.
The Falcons would not mind having to blitz less in 2011. It is clear they want more pass-rushing production off the edge. Right defensive end Kroy Biermann is an opportunistic run defender with unusual agility in traffic, but he has lost his starting job to the free agent pickup Ray Edwards, a sixth-year pro who posted at least eight sacks each of the past two years playing opposite Jared Allen in Minnesota. For Biermann, it could have been worse: his fellow right defensive end, Jamaal Anderson, also a superb run defender, was cut outright (he is now with the Indianapolis Colts).
Edwards now gets an opportunity to play opposite an even quicker pass rusher than Allen in John Abraham. He no longer gets to play next to the Williams Wall, though as a one-gap penetrator, the unheralded defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux is not far from Kevin Williams’s level. Babineaux has been the player the front office expected to get when it spent a first-round pick on Peria Jerry in 2009. Knee problems, however, put Jerry behind the eight-ball; and with the playmaking flashes of last year’s third-rounder, Corey Peters, it’s possible he will never get back in front of it. The last defensive lineman of significance is Chauncey Davis, a backup end who moves fairly well as an edge run defender and could spell the fragile Abraham.
Special Teams
The Falcons lost a veteran punter and kickoff artist when Michael Koenen signed with Tampa Bay, but they would not have invested a sixth-round pick in Matt Bosher if they were not wanting a change at that spot anyway. The veteran kicker Matt Bryant has good range indoors and can be counted on under pressure. Return specialist Eric Weems could become a household name with another campaign like the one he had in ’10, when he ran in a punt and two kickoffs (including one in the playoffs) and ranked third in kick return average.
Bottom Line
The Falcons are no longer focusing on a division title – they are focusing on the type of title that does not technically need a descriptor in front of it. Julio Jones may be the missing piece on offense, but because the Falcons are still banking on a classic run-first approach, taking that next step will have to involve the defense. The youth is seasoned enough and the stability is there, but depth could be an issue.
Predicted: 2nd NFC South
Andy Benoit is the founder of NFLTouchdown.com and covers the N.F.L. for CBSsports.com. He can be reached at andy.benoit@NFLtouchdown.com.
