Friday, August 5, 2011

Fantasy Football: Free Agency Recap

Jason and Justin Sablich are here to help you with your fantasy football draft. The Sablich brothers will provide fantasy football advice throughout the season on this blog and on Twitter (@5thDownFantasy).

Michael Vick

Complete fantasy football ranking for all positions, including PPR formats, updated throughout the preseason.

The frenzied 2011 N.F.L. free agent signing period is coming to a close and there are plenty of fantasy football implications as a result. The following is an extensive rundown of who went where and how the moves affected all players involved in terms of their fantasy value.

Quarterback

Kevin Kolb, ARZ — After dealing with a platoon of less-than-desirable options at the quarterback position in 2010, Larry Fitzgerald finally gets a capable arm to work with and now should be one of the first five receivers drafted in all formats. Kolb has just seven career starts under his belt, so we can’t advise trusting him as anything more than a QB2 to begin this season.

Matt Hasselbeck, TEN – What could have been Hasselbeck to Sidney Rice and Zach Miller is now Hasselbeck to Kenny Britt. But for the most part it will be Hasselbeck handing off to Chris Johnson, which is why Hasselbeck is nothing more than a spot-start, low-end QB2. Tarvaris Jackson will open the season as the starting quarterback in Seattle, so you won’t be drafting him unless you’re a Seahawks homer.

Donovan McNabb, MIN – McNabb’s value doesn’t really improve in Minnesota, since the receiving corps there, outside of Percy Harvin, is nothing to write home about. He is an upgrade over Jackson, and that’s a good thing for Harvin, and maybe even Adrian Peterson to some extent. His departure leaves a lackluster battle between Rex Grossman and John Beck for the starting quarterback job in Washington. Neither is worth drafting with a ten-foot pole.


Running Back

Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG – Bradshaw’s new contract is good news for the Giants and his fantasy value, considering there were no featured back vacancies left to fill. Expect the Giants’ backfield to look no different than last year, with Bradshaw getting the better of the timeshare and Brandon Jacobs handling goal line duties. He remains a quality RB2 option and is worth a third-round pick in standard leagues.

Deangelo Williams, CAR – Jonathan Stewart owners are the obvious losers here. He’s back to RB3 material, and will once again need another injury from Williams to be worth anything more.

Joseph Addai, IND – Delone Carter’s sleeper stock took a major hit with this re-signing, since Addai will return to his starting role. He’s no slouch at the goal line either, so expecting Carter to wrestle that job away from him is merely wishful thinking. Carter is barely a late-round flier, outside of rookie-only leagues.

Reggie Bush, MIA – The former Heisman Trophy winner is expected to receive 10-12 touches with the Dolphins, certainly a much better outlook compared to the crowded backfield he was freed from in New Orleans. Think of him as an RB3 in PPR leagues and hope he stays healthy for a full season; something he hasn’t managed to do since his rookie year in 2006.

Darren Sproles, NO – Sproles replaces Bush as the passing down specialist in New Orleans, which leaves Pierre Thomas without a definitive role. He won’t be worth a draft pick in standard leagues while Thomas can’t be considered more than an RB4 until we know the true pecking order. The goal line vulture Mike Tolbert appears to be the favorite for passing down duties in San Diego. He’s a solid RB3 selection.

Marion Barber, CHI – Matt Forte is in no danger of losing significant carries with this addition, but he could be losing goal line carries. Short-yardage situations seem to be the only thing the ex-Cowboy excels at, at this point in his career, and Forte has struggled in that department in recent years (a 14 percent touchdown conversion rate the last two seasons). Barber only makes sense as a handcuff.

Willis McGahee, DEN –- After all of the talk that Deangelo Williams was headed to Denver earlier this month, the McGahee signing is welcome news for Moreno. Even though McGahee should handle goal-line duties, Moreno will remain the starting option. With McGahee out of the mix in Baltimore, Ray Rice is a good bet to crack double-digit TDs.

Vonta Leach, BAL – As if the McGahee’s departure wasn’t good enough news for Rice, the pro bowl fullback Leach, who helped Arian Foster capture the rushing crown last year, will now be opening running lanes for the Ravens. This addition also means Le’Ron McClain’s time in Baltimore is likely up. We’ve bumped Rice up to No. 5 in our standard league rankings.

Ronnie Brown, PHI -– Brown is 30, and coming off of a career-low 3.67 yards per carry average, so there’s no reason for LeSean McCoy fans to get uptight. Brown is a glorified reserve and won’t see significant touches as long as McCoy is healthy.

Tim Hightower, WAS – The Hightower trade to Washington helps settle the Arizona backfield as Beanie Wells now gets his chance to ”be the guy,” while rookie Ryan Williams will fill Hightower’s shoes as the passing down option. Arizona’s recent maneuvering to solidify the offensive line is also a plus for Wells. But his ability to stay healthy and the fact that Williams is likely to emerge as a threat to his job at some point makes him a risky pick, unless you can score Williams in the later rounds as a handcuff.

Cadillac Williams, STL – Williams is no threat to Steven Jackson’s carries and isn’t even a viable handcuff in case Jackson gets hurt, averaging just 2.2 yards as the lead back in Tampa Bay last season.

Wide Receiver

Sidney Rice, SEA – Jackson will begin camp as the starting quarterback. All of the other incompetent quarterback options the Seahawks have makes it unlikely that Rice will return to 2009 form. His vacancy in Minnesota leaves Percy Harvin as the No.1 option for McNabb, and the expected increase in targets makes him a solid WR2 selection.

Chad Ochocinco, NE – Tom Brady and the Patriots are certainly a major upgrade over Andy Dalton, Bruce Gradkowski and the Bengals. Just don’t expect the kind of revival Randy Moss enjoyed when he joined the Patriots back in 2007. Unless Ochicinco’s ”alligator arms” and shyness from contact last season were just part of a Bengals conspiracy to push Carson Palmer into retirement, his skills are declining. We still like Ochocinco, 33, as a WR3 pick, considering Brady’s ability to elevate the WR position. As for Cincinnati, the rookie A.J. Green and Jerome Simpson will now be the starting options at wide receiver for the quarterbacks Andy Dalton or Bruce Gradkowski. Green is already drawing praise from teammates and coaches, but the quarterback situation will limit his upside.

Plaxico Burress, NYJ – A run-first offense, headed by an inaccurate quarterback, is a bad thing from a fantasy perspective. Then there’s the question of whether the soon to be 34-year-old has something left after missing two years of ball. On the bright side, his size will get him looks in the end zone and he’s considered the favorite to replace Braylon Edwards as the No. 2 next to Santonio Holmes. We consider Burress a WR4 in standard scoring leagues, with the potential to end up a WR3 later in the season (expect a lot of rust).

Mike Sims-Walker, STL -– Sims-Walker has a decent chance to do well in St. Louis with Sam Bradford lacking a definitive WR1 and Josh McDaniels calling the plays. The problem is that he’ll have to compete with an abundant amount of receivers already on the roster. For now, consider this notoriously inconsistent option a WR4 who is still worth taking a gamble on in the later rounds.

Steve Breaston, KC – Breaston will reunite with his former offensive coordinator, Todd Haley, and is likely to become the No. 2, next to Dwayne Bowe, barring a phenomenal camp from the rookie Jonathan Baldwin. On a run-first offense, he’s worth no more than a late-round flier. As it stands, his departure from Arizona leaves Early Doucet and Andre Roberts in a battle for the No. 2 receiver spot. Whoever emerges could end up being a sneaky late-round grab, as long as the Cardinals don’t add another receiver.

Braylon Edwards, SF — The 49ers needed to make this move with Michael Crabtree in serious danger of opening the season on the PUP list. The 28-year-old diva brings last year’s totals of 53 receptions, 904 yards and 7 touchdowns to the Bay. On paper, his quarterback situation actually improves slightly, as Alex Smith produced better completion and passer ratings in the 10 games he played last year (59.6 comp, 82.1 rating) than Mark Sanchez. Whether or not Smith can manage to play a full season without getting the hook remains to be seen. Treat Edwards as a low end WR3 in standard leagues.

Roy Williams, CHI – Considering the talent he had to compete with in Dallas, the move to Chicago makes him at least draft-able. It’s worth noting that he will again be working under Mike Martz, who Williams put together his best season with him back in 2006 with Detroit (82 rec., 1,310 yards, 7 TDs). If you are the optimistic type, Williams is still only 29 and Martz has been quoted as saying that he will be a big part of the offense. We like Williams as a low-end WR3.

James Jones, GB – This re-signing puts a big damper on Jordy Nelson’s potential for a breakout year. The two will continue to share snaps this season, limiting Nelson’s opportunities. A mega-sleeper one day, late-round fodder the next, fantasy football can be so cruel.

Tight End

Greg Olsen, CAR – The talented pass-catcher will fit in nicely as the No. 2 option next to Steve Smith. More importantly, he is getting out of the tight end graveyard better known as the Mike Martz offensive scheme. Rob Chudzinski, the Panthers offensive coordinator, was the former tight end coach for Antonio Gates, so it’s safe to say that Olsen is in good hands. He now holds sizable sleeper value as a TE2 and should be targeted in the late rounds.

Todd Heap, ARZ – Kolb has had a good history with the position, be it a very short history. Eagles tight end Brent Celek enjoyed his best games when he was playing catch with Kolb. Heap is 31 and fragile, but he proved in last year’s playoffs that he could still produce fantasy points, with 10 catches for 108 yards against the Chiefs. He’ll serve as a decent TE2 reserve. Meanwhile, back in Baltimore, another sleeper is born in Ed Dickson.

Zach Miller, SEA – After racking up 226 catches, 2,712 yards and 12 touchdowns in four seasons with the Raiders, Miller heads north to Seattle. The Raiders lose their most reliable option in the passing game and Miller loses a hefty chunk of fantasy value as he’ll now be competing for targets with Sidney Rice and Mike Williams. Despite breaking his hand recently, Jacoby Ford’s stock rises because someone in Oakland will have to replace Miller as the go-to option, and he’s the only guy on the offense that actually resembles a receiver.

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