The Case for Not Paying Matt Forte

Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats had a suggestion for the Titans in August, when the team was locked in a contract dispute with running back Chris Johnson: “Take the $12 million per year, put it into your offensive line, and draft a couple 4th round RBs. You’ll thank me later.”

The free advice was ignored, and Tennessee appeared to make an expensive mistake by signing Johnson to a contract extension. Johnson has rushed for a measly 366 yards, averaging 3.0 yards per carry.

Now Burke has turned his attention to Matt Forte and “whether the Bears are better off locking him up for 6 years and $20 million guaranteed or spending that money elsewhere.” The advice is the same:

On one hand, Forte is having a career season as the epicenter of the Bears offense. On the other hand, he’ll be a 26-year old running back next season.

CJ2k, or CJ0.7k as he might be better known after this season, has highlighted the folly of handing over 10% of a team’s cap space to single RB. That’s just too many eggs in one basket for a position that simply does not drive wins and losses except in rare instances.

We don’t need to look at Chris Johnson or DeAngelo Williams to see the danger of giving huge guaranteed contracts to RBs. We only have to look at Forte himself. As we’ve seen with several RBs, they can go from thermonuclear hot one year to cold as a fish the next, even without injuries or switching teams, and Forte is no exception.

Forte went from one of the top performing RBs in 2008 to one of the worst in 2009. He then had a mediocre year in 2010, the year CHI made it to the NFC Championship Game. And now he’s back on top in 2011. Forte already had a Chris-Johnson-in-2011-like season in ’09, and there’s no reason he won’t do it again. In ’09, Forte gained 905 yards on 252 carries for a 3.6 YPC. He fumbled 6 times.

I know what you’re saying. The team around him was bad. His offensive line played awful. They didn’t “use him right.” He had some bad fumble luck. But that’s exactly my point. RB performance is highly variable and greatly dependent on offensive lines.

The Bears would be much better off franchise-tagging Forte and then moving on with a younger, cheaper back. That might seem unfair, but Forte still pockets millions of dollars, and with any luck will make a few million more down the road. Some might argue that there is value in “keeping him happy,” but I’m not so sure there is an reliable link between large guaranteed contracts and future performance. Just ask the Titans.

Extra point Is the Forte case different than the Johnson one? And could the Bears withstand a lengthy holdout from Forte before next season?

N.F.L. Free-for-All Central, Starring Kolb, Haynesworth and Rice

3:43 p.m. | Updated While mayhem was expected when the N.F.L. ended its lockout Monday and launched an instant off-season, everyone predicted the frenetic pace of player movement would resemble a swap meet for billionaires. But it would not be proper mayhem unless something really head-slapping happened. Like, say, the Patriots trading for Albert Haynesworth.

Big trade news of the day, so far:
The latest trade apparently being consummated is the one sending quarterback Kevin Kolb from the Eagles to the Cardinals in exchange for cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. This has been in the hopper for a bit, but it came true only when Kolb agreed to receive gobs of money ($63 million over five years).

But the head-slapper is still the Patriots reportedly swinging a deal with Washington to acquire the perpetually discontented Haynesworth and that sound you hear is Redskins Coach Mike Shanahan howling in joy. Haynesworth, a fabulously talented but motivationally challenged defensive tackle, spent last season as the symbol of everything wrong with the Redskins owner Dan Snyder’s approach to team building. Having given Haynesworth a $100 million contract, they had to sit by as he pouted about the team’s new defensive system and became a running joke by not only failing to pass the team’s conditioning test, but not even being able to finish it. Now, apparently Patriots Coach Bill Belichick believes his magic powers extend to extracting that talent from Haynesworth, which means he spent his lockout time building a wand strong enough to move nearly 400 pounds of self-absorbed entitlement.

Only someone as large as Haynesworth could shove a Reggie Bush trade aside for top honors. New Orleans is reportedly sealing a deal that would send Bush, its mercurial running back, to Miami. The move comes as no surprise considering Bush all but announced his own exit after the Saints drafted running back Mark Ingram, and was completed when Bush agreed to a two-year deal with the Dolphins.

Big free-agent signing news of the day, so far:

Receiver Sidney Rice is apparently such a big fan of quarterback Tarvaris Jackson he followed him all the way from Minnesota to Seattle. After agreeing to terms with Jackson on Wednesday, the Seahawks have reportedly snared Rice from the Vikings with a five-year, $41 million deal, which took a little zing out of the arrival of quarterback Donovan McNabb in a trade. The Seahawks are betting big that Rice recovers from major hip surgery and regains the form of his spectacular 2009 season, when he caught 83 passes for 1,312 yards.

Perhaps the biggest prize of the free agency carnival, former Raiders cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha, has not made a move yet, but NFL.com is reporting the Texans might be closest to nabbing him, with the Jets and 49ers trying hard as well.

The Giants re-stocked their defensive cookie jar by re-signing Mathias Kiwanuka, but are still working on the offensive side to hammer out deals to bring back players like receiver Steve Smith, running back Ahmad Bradshaw and tight end Kevin Boss.

The Eagles were thinking defense too and signed defensive end Jason Babin, who made the Pro Bowl last season with the Titans after several unspectacular seasons, including one with the Eagles.

Big other N.F.L. mayhem news of the day, so far:
Along with signings and trades, holdouts are elbowing their way into the mix of news. Receiver DeSean Jackson, who has expressed dismay over his current contract, did not show up for the Eagles’ first workouts on Thursday. Similarly, Jacksonville tight end Marcedes Lewis refused to report to a mandatory meeting Wednesday while he tries to get a new deal out of the Jaguars. They join Tennessee running back Chris Johnson, who is reportedly staging his protest over his $800,000 base salary this season.

Quarterback Kevin Kolb was also nowhere to be found at the Eagles’ workout, but that is because everyone expects his trade to the Cardinals to be finalized shortly.

Cutsville:
The Steelers bid goodbye to Antwaan Randle El, the versatile offensive threat who helped them win a Super Bowl, and veteran tackle Max Starks, who started in two Super Bowls.

N.F.L. Free-for-All Central, Starring Haynesworth and Rice

While mayhem was expected when the N.F.L. ended its lockout Monday and launched an instant off-season, everyone predicted the frenetic pace of player movement would resemble a swap meet for billionaires. But it would not be proper mayhem unless something really head-slapping happened. Like, say, the Patriots trading for Albert Haynesworth.

Big trade news of the day, so far:

Yes, the Patriots have reportedly swung a deal with Washington to acquire the perpetually discontented Haynesworth and that sound you hear is Redskins Coach Mike Shanahan howling in joy. Haynesworth, a fabulously talented but motivationally challenged defensive end, spent last season as the symbol of everything wrong with the Redskins owner Dan Snyder’s approach to team building. Having given Haynesworth a $100 million contract, they had to sit by as he pouted about the team’s new defensive system and became a running joke by not only failing to pass the team’s conditioning test, but not even being able to finish it. Now, apparently Patriots Coach Bill Belichick believes his magic powers extend to extracting that talent from Haynesworth, which means he spent his lockout time building a wand strong enough to move nearly 400 pounds of self-absorbed entitlement.

Only someone as large as Haynesworth could shove a Reggie Bush trade aside for top honors. New Orleans is reportedly sealing a deal that would send Bush, its mercurial running back, to Miami. The move comes as no surprise considering Bush all but announced his own exit after the Saints drafted running back Mark Ingram, and was completed when Bush agreed to a two-year deal with the Dolphins.

Big free-agent signing news of the day, so far:

Receiver Sidney Rice is apparently such a big fan of quarterback Tarvaris Jackson he followed him all the way from Minnesota to Seattle. After agreeing to terms with Jackson on Wednesday, the Seahawks have reportedly snared Rice with a five-year, $41 million deal, which took a little zing out of the arrival of quarterback Donovan McNabb in a trade. The Seahawks are betting big that Rice recovers from major hip surgery and regains the form of his spectacular 2009 season, when he caught 83 passes for 1,312 yards.

Big other N.F.L. mayhem news of the day, so far:
Along with signings and trades, holdouts are elbowing their way into the mix, with Jacksonville tight end Marcedes Lewis refusing to report to a mandatory meeting Wednesday. He joins Tennessee running back Chris Johnson, who is reportedly staging his protest over his $800,000 base salary this season.