Tebow, the Colts, the Jets: Judy Battista Answers Your Questions

Is Tim Tebow 100% responsible for his terrible performance, or are there other bigger factors to account for? (i.e., the play calling, the porous o-line etc. etc.).–Justin, Quad Cities

Good question. No quarterback – neither Joe Montana nor Joe Schmo – is ever entirely to blame (or entirely to credit) for the performance of the offense. Not for nothing does everyone say it starts upfront. Tebow has been under a lot of pressure, which is only exacerbated by the fact that he is indecisive and tends to hold the ball too long and that even when he is prepared to throw, his long throwing motion means it takes him an extra split-second to get the ball out. And it certainly doesn’t help Tebow that the Broncos traded their most reliable receiver – Brandon Lloyd – right before Tebow got his first start this season. So, this is certainly not the most favorable situation for any quarterback, least of all one who has a big learning curve of his own to master. The Broncos tried to put in more Tebow-suited plays last week (playing out of the shotgun, some read-option like he ran at Florida), but it’s not that easy to have the entire offense switch mid-season to a different offensive style. It means different blocking assignments for the linemen, different runs for the running backs, perhaps different routes for the receivers. And in the middle of the season? Again, you can’t blame Tebow for how difficult all of that is. He has plenty of his own things to overcome – most important his accuracy (which is related to inconsistent footwork) and his reading of defenses — and certainly his performances have not been encouraging so far. But it’s been only two games and plenty of other things have to improve to make this offense work – not just Tebow.

Mike Wallace has been impressing Steeler Nation this year. Great fun to watch him outrun his coverage on deep throws — except against the Patriots, where he caught seven short passes instead. Was that a function of the Patriots’ defense or the Steelers’ game plan? Will other teams be able to keep him from the deep ball going forward?–Saltwater, Durham, N.C.

Wallace’s role last Sunday was a function of how the Steelers chose to attack the Patriots and what the Patriots were determined to take away. Early, the Patriots wanted to take away the deep ball. Fine. The Steelers instead carved up the middle of the field (remember pass after pass to Heath Miller?), going on long, time-consuming drives that kept the Patriots’ offense off the field. As impressive as those quick, deep strikes to Wallace are, that wouldn’t have keep Tom Brady on the bench enough. Can other teams keep Wallace in front of them? Sure. If they are also willing to leave huge voids in the middle of the field like the Patriots did. The really jarring part of the game to me was that the Patriots got the Steelers in third and long repeatedly (nine times by my count) and the Steelers converted repeatedly (five times). If other defenses – like, say, the Ravens this Sunday — can get off the field on third down, you’d like their odds a lot better.

(Interesting note: to simulate Wallace’s speed in practice last week, the Patriots had the scout team player who was mimicking Wallace line up two yards offside.)

How impressed should we be with this year’s rookie quarterbacks (especially Cam Newton, Andy Dalton and Christian Ponder)? It’s tempting to make historical comparisons, but unlike their predecessors, these players have been running pro-style offenses since college. Of course, last year’s rookies had similar college training and arguably haven’t done as well. Is this year’s class truly special?–Peter G., Minneapolis

Pretty impressed, especially considering they had no mini-camps, OTAs, meetings, film sessions, etc. until training camps opened in late July. It’s hard to say last year’s rookies didn’t do as well – Sam Bradford was pretty great as a rookie (a change to a new offense and injuries galore don’t help this year) and I think everyone can safely agree that Tebow was drafted higher than he should have been. But back to this year – it’s inarguable that Cam Newton is special. He’s an elite player and his work with Chris Weinke during the lockout clearly got him up to speed on the playbook much more than anyone expected. Coaches raved about his work ethic as soon as he got to camp and that is showing. He terrifies defenses not just with his rocket of an arm, but his ability to run (also, he is huge – I didn’t realize that until I stood next to him a few days before the draft). Dalton is benefitting from having quick chemistry with A.J. Green but his stat line (nine TDs and seven INTs) is more typical of what you’d expect from a rookie. And we have too small a sample size on Ponder. But generally, we’re seeing more rookies make quicker impacts because college football now looks more like pro football. Nobody runs the wishbone anymore and then has to make the change to the pro style – that’s why we’re seeing more rookies starting right away.

Looking at the Colts’ collapse, does it mean that Peyton Manning was even more central to this team’s success than anyone knew? Other quarterback-dependent teams have not had the same drastic drop-off when they lost their starter for the year (e.g. the Patriots in 2008). The Colts were in the Super Bowl in 2009, then barely lost to the Jets in the playoffs last year. They’ve done well, even with major contributors injured, as long as they had Manning. Are they really this bad without him?–XA, Michigan

Short answer: yes. I wrote about this last Sunday – I think we may have underestimated how critical Manning was, which is saying something considering he’s a four time league M.V.P. No team is as dependent on the quarterback as the Colts were on Manning, though. All of their other personnel decisions were made to build the team around him. There was little running game, the offensive line was built mostly for pass protection not run-blocking, the defense was built small and fast to rush the passer, because it assumed the Colts would usually be playing with a lead – because Manning would get it – and they paid almost no attention to having a backup ready to go because Manning was an ironman. It’s a recipe for collapse if you then lose the one player you simply can’t lose.

Having said all that, I’m shocked that they are winless right now. When it was clear Manning probably wouldn’t play this season, my guess was they would win maybe four or five games. They have talent on the team – Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney, Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne. Those are players that any other team would be delighted to have on their rosters. I am stunned at how other parts of the team now seem to be regressing. Manning wasn’t playing defense or special teams – it’s not him who is out there missing tackles and botching punt coverage. Chris Polian, the Colts’ general manager, told me something early this season that really rings true: a player of Manning’s caliber covers up a lot of sins on the roster. Now we know just how bad those sins are.

Also, what’s the point of forcing linemen to wear microphones?–Justin, Quad Cities

Linemen are asked to wear microphones to enhance the sound for television broadcasts. It used to be that the member of the officiating crew who lined up right in the middle of the defense would pick up those sounds. But when he was moved to behind the offense for his own safety, that sound was lost – and networks wanted it back because they believe it enhances the viewing experience. In the ultra-paranoid world of the N.F.L., some people wonder if opposing coaches can tape the broadcasts and pick up and decipher play calls and blocking calls. But the networks pay a lot of money for rights to broadcast those games and they will figure out a way to get their sound.

Based on what you know now, which two teams are probable participants in the Super Bowl next year?–Mark Sanford, Orinda, Calif.

Thanks for giving me a chance to revise my Super Bowl picks. I think I went with Saints vs. Patriots in the season preview. That doesn’t look like the worst pick right now, although the Packers would look a lot better (I picked them to win last year, did I mention that?). Repeating at the Super Bowl is hard, and the Packers’ defense hasn’t been as formidable in the first half this season as it was last season. But I would not pick against Aaron Rodgers right now, no matter who he is facing. He is the best quarterback in the league and the Packers are the best team and there is not a close second. The Patriots’ struggling defense makes me nervous but since there is no dominant team in the A.F.C. right now, I’m not sure they can’t at least get to the Super Bowl anyway. It will just depend on who they face in the playoffs. If it’s a team with a super-elite quarterback (Steelers), the Patriots could go out early because their pass defense is a mess.The Steelers looked pretty good last Sunday and they certainly reinserted themselves into the post-season conversation. But until somebody in the A.F.C. separates themselves clearly from the pack, I wouldn’t know who to change my pick to. So to answer your question, I’d probably just stick with my preseason pick until further notice. But ask me again in a few weeks and I might feel differently.

Are the Bills for real?–Jonathan, New Jersey

Yes, I think they are (caveat: if Ryan Fitzpatrick is healthy). Again, there is no dominant A.F.C. team and with the Patriots and Jets looking vulnerable there is plenty of room for the Bills to slip in there and at least get into wild card position. They already have a victory in hand over the Patriots and they get the Jets at home this Sunday. A victory would put the Bills in a very nice spot at the midway point.

Re: Sam Borden on the yo-yoing of Ryan Perrilloux, does this ever work out well for the player? Obviously at $5,700 per week it is cheap insurance for the team. But are there example of players who have gone through this in recent years and then caught on to be regular team members?

This sounds a lot like the pro football version of the Rudy Ruettiger story at Notre Dame, but probably without as happy an ending.–Leonard, New York City

James Harrison spent plenty of time on practice squads and was let go by Baltimore before finally sticking with the Steelers. It’s turned out really nicely for him and the Steelers. It is certainly an unusual way to get to be a defensive player of the year, but it can be done.

What will it take for the Jets to move past Brian Schottenheimer? Predictably, the Jets offense will bomb this week. Will that finally prove enough? Why does an underachiever have such a hold on this organization?–kman, New York City

This question comes up at least every other week. You have to remember, Schottenheimer is calling things that he and Rex Ryan feel comfortable doing with Mark Sanchez. Does that mean they don’t have confidence in the quarterback? Perhaps. Should they have more? Maybe. I don’t know what will happen this season. But you have to think that if they fail to make the playoffs – with Sanchez not showing any appreciable signs of improvement in his third season – Ryan might consider making a change. But Ryan knows more about what Sanchez is capable of than the rest of us and he might know that Schottenheimer is being hamstrung by Sanchez as much as Sanchez is being hamstrung by Schottenheimer. One other thing: the offensive line is not as good this season as it has been in the past and the running game is clearly not the force it was or that the Ground and Pound philosophy demands. That doesn’t help a quarterback or offensive coordinator either.

How well do the Bengals match up against the Steelers and the Ravens, division rivals they have yet to play this year?–Mordecai, Brooklyn, N.Y.

What the Bengals do best is play defense, particularly against the run (they are ranked second in rushing yards allowed defense). That should be a bigger problem for the Ravens, who – if they’re playing smart – rely on Ray Rice more than the Steelers do on Rashard Mendenhall, especially because of Joe Flacco’s inconsistent performances lately. Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has had a nice season so far but welcome, rookie, to two terrifying defenses in the Steelers and the Ravens. If the Steelers can befuddle Tom Brady and take Wes Welker out of his game, they can surely handle Dalton and A.J. Green. And the Ravens merely have the top-ranked defense in the league and simply crush quarterbacks – they have 25 sacks, second in the league. The Steelers play the Bengals next Sunday in Cincinnati and then the Bengals go to Baltimore the following week. That stretch will give us a much better idea of how the Bengals stack up. But long-term, Dalton and Green give them plenty of hope for the future.

2011 New Orleans Saints Season Preview

Perhaps no higher compliment was paid to this organization than the collective silence that ensued after the Saints traded a 2012 first-round pick and a 2011 second-rounder to move up and draft Alabama running back Mark Ingram 28th over all. This was a move that seemed to make little sense. The Saints already had two good runners in Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory. The former had just signed a four-year, $12 million contract and the latter was an undrafted second-year pro with a sub-$500,000 salary each of the next two years.

Some thought the Ingram pick was a sign that New Orleans would be cutting ties with Reggie Bush (Bush himself posted a goodbye on Twitter right after the pick). But equating Ingram to Bush is like equating South Dakota to Hawaii: they’re both states, but the similarities end there. Ingram is a bowling-ball-like inside runner; Bush is essentially a gadget player who sometimes takes handoffs.

Indeed, Bush was later let go. But lightning bug playmaker Darren Sproles was quickly signed to fill his shoes, which left the Saints once again with three good running backs plus their new first-rounder. Teams trade future first-round picks all the time. But it’s almost always done to correct a glaring weakness. The Saints, on the other hand, did it to make a luxury pick. That’s the football equivalent of taking out a second mortgage to buy another speedboat.

Maybe the Saints think Ingram is a once-in-a-generation-type talent. (They’d be about the only team that feels this strongly.) Or, more likely, they’re concerned about the durability of their other running backs. Whatever, it’s not important for this discussion. The point  is to understand why General Manager Mickey Loomis and Coach Sean Payton could make such a perplexing pick and not hear more than a murmur about it.

This uncommon benefit of the doubt was earned mainly by winning a Super Bowl two years ago. But in the more immediate present, the Saints have emerged as one of the most well-operated clubs in pro football – right up there with the the Steelers, Colts, Patriots, Eagles and Packers

The Eagles certainly won this year’s N.F.C. off-season championship, but the Saints, who had fewer holes to fill, quietly ran away with second place. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, a sought-after head coaching candidate, was retained. Top offensive free agent Lance Moore and top defensive free agent Roman Harper re-signed in long-term deals. Before the lockout, the Saints snatched former Pro Bowl defensive tackle Shaun Rogers for one year at $4 million. During the lockout, they spent their own first-round draft choice (No. 24 over all) on Cal defensive end Cameron Jordan. And, shortly after the lockout, they added star nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin (one year, terms undisclosed). Suddenly, their very average defensive line might be the best in the N.F.C.

From this example, it’s easy to see why so few criticized the Saints for splurging on Ingram. As a well-managed team with no major holes to fill, the Saints seem to know what they’re doing. Nothing wrong with another speedboat if you can afford it.

The new faces will be joining a cohesive lineup that figures to benefit magnificently from the lockout. The Saints’ success has been predicated on generating big plays through means of confusion. Offensively, Payton uses more formations and personnel packages than defenses have time to prepare for. Defensively, Williams relies on creating bewilderment and turnovers through high-risk pass-rush concepts out of chaotic presnap looks.

The Saints’ big-play proficiency dropped on both sides of the ball last season; consequently, so did their win total. But with the drastically limited practice schedules brought about by the lockout, teams with the biggest playbooks may rule the day in 2011. Or sheer talent will just rise to the top. Either way, the Saints look as golden as the helmets they wear.

Offense

The reason Sean Payton can design copious plays out of copious formations is because he has a maestro under center in Drew Brees. Supreme accuracy and deft pocket mobility are enough to make Brees a star; preternatural abilities to diagnose a defense and race through progressions are what propel him to superstar status. The much-ballyhooed nebulous characteristics that have come to define Brees – leadership, poise under pressure – are merely symptoms of his intelligence and preparation.

Because of Brees’s brilliance, all five of New Orleans’s eligible receivers are legitimate weapons on any given play. Therein lies the difference between an elite offense and an ordinary one.

Another difference worth noting is New Orleans’s clever use of route combinations. Most of the route combinations center on some form of deep seam pattern – a tactic that creates confusion in double teams and makes life miserable on opposing safeties (especially when they’re in zone coverage).

New Orleans’s personnel executing these routes is good, not great – but in this system “good” is good enough. Marques Colston is a dominant possession target, particularly out of the slot. Robert Meachem is a straight-line deep threat who has recently learned the other routes on the tree but must still improve at snagging passes while running off diagonal breaks (slants, posts, etc.). Devery Henderson is a speedy playmaker but has fallen behind the more reliable Lance Moore (one of the best deep-intermediary route runners in the game).

The only other N.F.C. offense that is comparable to New Orleans’s when it comes to route combinations is Green Bay’s, though Payton uses tight ends and running backs as ball-handlers more than Mike McCarthy does. This is what made Reggie Bush so valuable. The Saints will miss Bush as a decoy, though newcomer Darren Sproles, while not the slot receiver Bush was, is still a comparable enough threat in the flats. Also, Pierre Thomas is one of the most underrated pass-catching backs in the game.

There is palpable excitement about athletic second-year tight end Jimmy Graham, a former basketball player at Miami who is learning the nuances of professional football quickly enough for the team to have released veteran Jeremy Shockey. A dynamic tight end is a toy Payton has not gotten to play with in New Orleans. (By the way, can we all agree that it’s time to just start mentioning when a tight end is not a former basketball player?)

Majestic as the passing game is, this is still an offense that thrives on balance. In their ’09 Super Bowl season, the Saints ranked fourth in passing and sixth in rushing. Last season, the pass game ranked third but the run game dropped to 28th. A slew of injuries at the tailback position turned an uneasy Payton into a one-dimensional play-caller. Perhaps it was this experience that prompted the splurge on Mark Ingram. After all, the powers that be were not happy that it took Pierre Thomas 10 weeks to recover from a sprained ankle last season. Thomas, one of the smoother runners in the game when it comes to timing and accelerating off lead blocks, is healthy now, but his reputation is a bit dented. Not completely healthy is the bruising Chris Ivory, who is rebounding slowly from a Lisfranc (foot) operation he had more than six months ago.

Ingram will undoubtedly have a role on the team, but it probably doesn’t take a stud to move the chains when running behind perhaps the best two guards in football. Carl Nicks (left guard) is practically a carbon copy of a MINI Cooper, both in terms of  size and movement skills. Jahri Evans (right guard) didn’t have his best season in ’10 (penalties were a bit of a problem), but his pair of first-team All-Pro awards speak much louder than a few flags. Evans is outstanding at disengaging from defeated defensive linemen to quickly reach a linebacker.

Unfortunately, New Orleans’s tackles are as terrible as the guards are great. Because Brees is too efficient to sack, there’s a widespread misperception that Jermon Bushrod is a rising young left tackle. Bushrod has decent mobility in the ground game but is a poor pass-blocker. Recognition of blitzes has also been a problem at times. The reason Bushrod was re-signed to a two-year, $9.5 million deal in the off-season is because coaches didn’t get a chance to work closely with last year’s second-round pick, Charles Brown, this past off-season. There’s a chance Brown could still see action in 2011, as sloppy right tackle Jon Stinchcomb slipped to Bushrod’s level last season. Also, free agent pickup Alex Barron, though penalty prone, is an experienced option.

The usually reliable center Jonathan Goodwin became somewhat of a liability down the stretch in ’10, which is why the Saints brought in longtime Bear Olin Kreutz. Respected as he is around the N.F.L., the six-time Pro Bowler has lost more than a few steps and can no longer be counted on to win every one-on-one matchup. The Saints would be wise to keep a close eye on last year’s fifth-round pick, Matt Tennant. Over all, three question marks along the offensive line might seem like a problem, but keep in mind, these are question marks the Saints have overcome the past two years.

Defense

It will be interesting to see what Gregg Williams does with so much talent along the defensive line. His aggressive defensive play calls in recent years have been a form of compensation. But with the arrival of first-round defensive end Cameron Jordan and the return of tireless veteran Will Smith, Williams theoretically should be able to rely on natural pressure off both edges. And keep in mind, third defensive end Alex Brown brings additional quickness to the rotation.

Inside, if ex-Brown/Lion Shaun Rogers stays healthy and motivated, Williams will have one of the pre-eminent interior pass-rushers in all the land. At his best, Rogers is arguably the best. Even if Rogers tanks, there’s still Aubrayo Franklin eating up blocks, which spells one-on-one matchups for underwhelming but respectable former first-round pick Sedrick Ellis. Franklin plays with tremendous leverage and is nearly peerless when it comes to moving laterally while stalemating two offensive linemen.

The Saints rely on hefty defensive tackles even more than most teams, as undersized middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma is a prolific hunter when kept clean from blockers. This is vital because the Saints can’t bank on big plays from smart but limited outside linebackers Scott Shanle and Danny Clark.

Their limitations are one reason you can expect Williams to keep being aggressive schematically. Another reason is the Saints have had too much in their 3-3-5 nickel personnel sets to start settling for predictable four-man rushes at this point (even if the four rushers are so talented).

Strong safety Roman Harper is the secret ingredient in many of New Orleans’s blitz packages. His versatility in the box allows him to align all over the field, and his explosive physicality after the snap disrupts the timing of pass plays. Disrupted timing leads to turnovers, which is what this defense is built on (it forced 39 in ’09 but just 25 in ’10).

Another reason Harper regularly aligns in the box is because he’s a liability in coverage (we all saw his train wreck in the wild card loss at Seattle). Fortunately, cornerbacks Tracy Porter and Jabari Greer are both sound on-ball defenders, and free safety Malcolm Jenkins is as rangy as they come in coverage. Jenkins can also defend the slot, which affords Williams even more options in presnap disguise. As soon as Jenkins, an ’09 first-round pick from Ohio State, learns to play more in control, he’ll be the premier safety of the N.F.C.

If Jenkins continues to cover the slot in passing downs, the Saints will call on Pierson Prioleau, a serviceable veteran who has followed Williams around the N.F.L. for most of his 13 years in the league, to fill the deep safety spot that the departed Darren Sharper handled last season. More preferable would be for last year’s first-round pick, Patrick Robinson, to mature and become the slot corner. Veteran Randall Gay is gone, so Robinson will get every chance at playing time, though he’ll have to fend off free agent pickup Fabian Washington, who started eight games in Baltimore last season. Washington struggled with press coverage but that’s not a factor when it comes to defending the slot. The Saints also invested a third-round pick in Louisville’s Johnny Patrick.

Special Teams

Garrett Hartley has looked like both goat and G.O.A.T. over the past two years. Over all, the Saints like him enough to have signed him to a five-year contract in March. Thomas Morstead is the punter (that’s enough analysis for a Saints punter). If he can stay on the field, Courtney Roby can be one of the more consistent kick return threats in the league. Expect Roby to get a chance at replacing Bush on punt returns. If it doesn’t work out, the Saints can always fall back on reliable Lance Moore.

Bottom Line

The issues that kept this team from playing deep into January last season – lack of run game offensively, absence of manufactured big plays defensively – have been corrected. This team has great continuity and operates out of comprehensive offensive and defensive playbooks – two distinct advantages in this hastened post lockout season.

Bottom Line: 1st N.F.C. South

Andy Benoit is the founder of NFLTouchdown.com and covers the N.F.L. for CBSsports.com. He can be reached at andy.benoit@NFLtouchdown.com.