Monday Matchup: Vikings at Packers

Vikings (2-6) at Packers (8-0), 8:30 p.m. Eastern, ESPN
Line: Packers by 13

The Packers’ All-Pro safety, Charles Woodson, committed a grave football faux pas when he spoke honestly about the possibility of an undefeated season. “I’d love to go undefeated,” he said last week. “Not just the regular season. The whole thing.”

Those words can be interpreted as both a jinx and bulletin-board fodder: the equivalent of crossing a black cat’s path under a ladder while shouting, “Neener, neener!” at the opposition. Proper N.F.L. etiquette requires players to desire victory above all else, but never over any specific opponent (except next week’s foe), let alone all of them.
Woodson’s remarks were poorly timed, considering how beatable the Packers have looked recently. Woodson acknowledged that the defense has been playing poorly, and Packers wins have taken on a familiar pattern: the offense builds a seemingly insurmountable lead, then gives the opponent most of the second half to try to surmount it. The offense does not help the defense much during these late collapses: it seems to have two speeds, Warp 9 and Game Over, and it often switches to the latter mode a little too soon.

The Packers’ tendency to score 30 to 40 points, then fall asleep under the old stone bridge, suggests that when they do lose, it will a devastating spectacle. Maybe Woodson just wants to get that heartbreaking loss out of the way. It is a masterly piece of story-line control: he casts the Packers as boastful in November, they absorb a loss or two, and they enter the playoffs humbled and hungry, simultaneously the defending champions and the team eager for redemption. Or perhaps, having accomplished so much in his career, he has evolved beyond the need to pretend that he does not have ambitions. In pro football psychology, the first theory actually makes more sense.
Pick: Packers
(Pick does not reflect betting line)

The True Measure of a Pass-Heavy Offense

The popular perception is that the Green Bay Packers are great because of Aaron Rodgers and the passing offense. And for good reason: Rodgers (and by extension, the entire Green Bay passing offense) is on a record-breaking pace. Rodgers leads the league in completion percentage, touchdowns, touchdown percentage, yards per attempt, adjusted net yards per attempt and adjusted yards per attempt. He’s averaging 11.2 adjusted yards per attempt, the highest mark after a team’s first eight games of any quarterback in over 50 years.

But did you know that the Packers rank 21st in pass attempts this season? I doubt that that jibes with your impression of the Packers as a passing team. The 2007 Patriots — the year Tom Brady carved up opposing defenses nearly every week — barely passed more frequently than the average team that season. The 1999 Rams won the Super Bowl and earned the nickname the Greatest Show on Turf, as Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt led one of the great  passing attacks in football history. That year, the Rams ranked 15th in the league in rush attempts and 19th in pass attempts.

In all of these cases, the statistics did not tell the true story. Those teams passed so successfully that they frequently found themselves in run-favorable situations. Every N.F.L. fan knows that trailing teams tend to pass more frequently than winning teams, and the disparity is stronger the larger the lead or deficit. For example, teams this season are passing on 74 percent of plays when trailing by 17 to 24 points, but that  drops to 44 percent when leading by such a margin. How a game unfolds has a large impact on the ultimate run/pass ratio of a team. To truly understand a team’s offensive philosophy, you need to take into account the scoring flow of the game.

I looked at the play-by-play logs of every game this season, courtesy of Footballguys.com. I excluded all plays in which a team was winning or losing by over 24 points because those plays reveal little about a team’s gameplan (for example, the Colts called 23 pass plays and 23 runs in their 62-7 loss to the Saints; plays in those types of games are counted, but only until the games get out of hand). I also decided to exclude all rushing plays where the runner was the quarterback; many of those plays were probably designed pass plays, but others were designed runs or draws, along with quarterback sneaks and kneeldowns.

Finally, I noted how much the team with the ball was leading or trailing by at the start of each play; that will help to give us a general sense of whether it is a passing or running situation. For example, when the Lions came back from a 20-point deficit against the Vikings, the average scoring margin on Detroit plays was -8.5; not surprisingly, the Lions passed on 74 percent of plays in that game (passing plays include sacks). This past weekend, the Texans jumped out to an early lead against the Browns. Houston’s average offensive play was run with a 14.3-point lead; the Texans ran on 37 of 60 plays (this excludes the Matt Schaub touchdown run and his two kneeldowns at the end of the game). Both Arian Foster and Ben Tate rushed for over 100 yards.

The table below shows the average scoring margin for each “play” by each team this season. Remember, the scoring margin excludes plays where a team has a lead of 25 points or more or trails by such a  margin; it also excludes plays that end with the quarterback running. The table will loosely correlate with team strength, but there are several reasons (outside of the scope of this article) to hesitate before using these numbers as a sort of power ranking:

[Note: All statistics in this article are from before the Monday Night Football game between the Bears and Eagles.]

As you’d expect, the Packers have been in front most of the time this season. That helps  explain why they haven’t passed as frequently as you might think. As you can see, they rank just 13th in percentage of plays that were called passes:

So we know teams like the Steelers and the Packers have played with large leads, and pass more frequently than a team like the Texans. But how would we compare the 49ers to the Falcons? Or the Patriots to the Redskins? We need to convert “margin” and “pass percentage” to equivalent units. We can do that by looking at each team’s standard deviation in each category.

As you may recall from math class, standard deviation measures how spread out the observations are in a particular set of data. The actual standard deviations aren’t all that interesting here, but the key is that by finding out how far from average (as measured by standard deviation) each team is in each category, we can get a true sense of offensive philosophy. On average, the 32 teams ran offensive plays while trailing by 1.2 points (we would expect the average to be negative, because teams kick off after a touchdown or field goal).

The Texans were 1.8 standard deviations above average in the scoring margin category during Houston’s average play; the Packers were 1.7 standard deviations above average, the Steelers 1.6, and so on. At the bottom of the list, of course, would be the Rams at -1.9 standard deviations from the average (taking the standard deviation won’t change the order of the list; it simply measures the variance in the group.)

What about in the pass percentage category? The average team passed on 61 percent of its plays, using the definition of plays from this article. The Bucs were 1.5 standard deviations above average in percentage of plays that were passed; the Texans were -2.1 standard deviations from the average.

Once we have the “margin” category in the same unit as the “pass percentage” category, the rest of the math is easy. If a team has a low margin, that means it has frequently played from behind. If it is high in the pass percentage category, that means it tends to pass often. To measure how frequently a team passes after accounting for game situation, we simply add the standard deviation number in the margin category to the pass percentage standard deviation number.

The table below presents the results. After the team name, the first two columns are just the earlier data reprinted. The next two columns show how many standard deviations above or below average each team was in scoring margin and percentage of passes called. Finally, the last column shows how pass-heavy the offense truly is, after adjusting for average scoring margin.

Lo and behold, the Packers now look to be the most pass-happy team in the league. The Steelers and the Patriots are also in the top four, and the Saints are not far behind. Not surprisingly, the Jaguars and Chiefs lead the way when it comes to run-heavy offenses, regardless of situation. The Jets have actually been relatively run-heavy this season, but their game situation (trailing often) has somewhat distorted the numbers.

Perhaps the most interesting team? The Ravens. A couple of weeks ago, Terrell Suggs said the Ravens needed to pass less and run more; it’s hard to disagree with him. The Ravens have been extremely pass-heavy this season, once you factor in the game situation. Consider that against the Rams, when Baltimore raced out to a 21-0 lead before the first quarter ended, Joe Flacco threw 48 passes while the running backs had just 17 carries. Suggs’s comments came after the Jaguars loss, when Baltimore had 41 dropbacks against just 12 rushes in a game that was close throughout. Against the Steelers this weekend, Baltimore called 50 passing plays despite leading for a majority of the game.

Chase Stuart is a contributor to SmartFootball.com, Footballguys.com and Pro-Football-Reference.com. 

Gale Gillingham, a Packers Hall of Famer

In the era before offensive linemen were allowed to open their hands and extend their arms, for both run and pass blocking, Gale Gillingham was an unusual combination of power and technique. Gillingham died on Thursday at his home in Minnesota. He was 67. A few thoughts:

In the 1967 postseason, Green Bay’s young guard, Gale Gillingham, faced the Rams’ 300-pound, six-time pro bowler, Roger Brown; the Cowboys’ future Hall of Famer, Bob Lilly; and Oakland’s quick and agile all-pro, Tom Keating. Three outstanding defensive tackles, each with a different style. And yet Gillingham, in his first year as the full-time starter, neutralized all of them and more, as the Packers won their third consecutive N.F.L. championship and their second straight Super Bowl. By 1976, his final season, Gillingham was the last remaining Packer of the Lombardi era.

Gillingham played fullback in high school but he made the transition to both offensive and defensive tackle so well at the University of Minnesota that Green Bay selected him in the first round of the 1966 draft (13th over all). He spent his rookie year mostly on special teams, but it was clear that he was so smart and talented that he would soon be taking the job of one of the veteran guards, Jerry Kramer or Fuzzy Thurston.

The next year, when Thurston, who was about two years older than Kramer, hurt his knee in training camp, Gillingham became the starter at left guard. Kramer reflected on the change years later:

Gilly was such a good kid, had such a good attitude that none of us who had been on the offensive line for so long… really resented his arrival. It was just the natural progression of life. Fuzzy was aging, slowing down a bit. Gilly was young and swift and strong. Of course we all envied him his youth and his speed and his vigor, hated him for having all the things we’d lost. Until he showed up, Forrest (Gregg) and I had always been the fastest offensive linemen on the team. Suddenly, we no longer were. (Jerry Kramer, “Distant Replay”, Putnam, 1985)

Over his 10-year career, Gillingham played in 128 regular-season and 5 postseason games, all with the Packers. He moved to right guard when Kramer retired in 1968 and made first-team All-Pro in 1969 and 1970. He was selected for the Pro Bowl 5 times, from 1969 to 1971, and in 1973 and 1974. He was inducted into the Packers’ Hall of Fame in 1982.

Gillingham had the ideal build for a guard: thick, strong and powerful. He started his career at about 255 pounds and ended it closer to 275. He was one of the few players at that time who lifted weights in the off-season.

Gillingham had good balance, was quick and explosive off the ball, and he had exceptional pulling speed in either direction, especially early in his career. He would take off running low and hard, with his arms pumping, looking for someone to hit. His ability to adjust, in a split second, to the movement of a defender, made him an effective downfield blocker.

By the mid-1960s, the Green Bay power sweep, with both guards pulling, was well established as the most famous play in football. Lombardi installed it every year in training camp with the same energy and enthusiasm. The photographs of Kramer and Thurston leading Jim Taylor and Paul Hornung are some of pro football’s iconic images of the decade. Over time, one of the ways that developed to counter the sweep was to have the defensive end take a hard rush upfield to cut off the guards and force the runner back into the pursuit. The Packers would answer with the play that provided the turning point in the divisional playoff against the Rams in 1967: the Long Trap.

Coming into that game, many believed that time had run out on the Packer dynasty. Too old and banged up, they said. Green Bay struggled to go 9-4-1. The Rams finished tied with the Colts for the N.F.L.’s best record, 11-1-2, and had beaten the Packers in Los Angeles two weeks before. Even though the game was played in Milwaukee, the Rams were favored.

Green Bay preferred to run the sweep to the right. This was especially difficult against the Rams because their left defensive end, Deacon Jones, was so quick and fast off the ball. Now, trailing, 7-0, in the second quarter, with the ball on the Ram 46, Bart Starr called for the trap play, right at Jones.

This time, however, Jones took an inside move and was driven out of the hole by Forrest Gregg, Green Bay’s right tackle. Kramer blocked Merlin Olsen to the inside. Gillingham pulled to his right, flat down the line of scrimmage, and executed the trap on the first defender who showed, outside linebacker Jack Pardee. Travis Williams was no more than 10 yards downfield with the ball when Kramer raised his arms over his head, signaling a touchdown. He was right. The Packers went on to win, 28-7. Through the years, many of the players have called that victory one of the proudest moments of their careers.

After Lombardi retired, Green Bay finished with a winning record in only two of Gillingham’s remaining eight seasons, and never won a playoff game. Just before the start of the 1972 season, with the Packers short of defensive linemen because of injuries, Dan Devine moved Gillingham, his best offensive lineman, to defensive tackle. In Week 2, he seriously injured his right knee and missed the rest of the season. The next year he came back at right guard. Frustrated with losing, Gillingham sat out the 1975 season and asked to be traded. When the Packers refused, he came back for one more year, in 1976, and then retired for good.

In the years after his playing career ended, Gillingham’s ex-teammates sensed, although he never openly expressed it, that he was disappointed at not receiving the recognition he believed he deserved. The public might not have known, but the players did. Gregg, who ended his Hall of Fame career in Dallas, said recently that Bob Lilly told him that “Gale Gillingham was the best guard he’d ever played against.” (Forrest Gregg, “Winning in the Trenches: A Lifetime of Football”, Clerisy Press, 2010). Mike Reid of the Bengals said that Gillingham “hit me so hard, I almost couldn’t fall.” (Kramer) “When you played football and you’re concentrating and you get hit,” said Eagles middle linebacker Bill Bergey, “it never hurts. When Gillingham hit me, it hurt.” (Kramer) As Jerry Kramer wrote: “I always used to measure guys, look in their eyes, see if they were there. Gilly was always there.”

Ten of Lombardi’s Packers are members of the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Gillingham, Kramer, left tackle Bob Skoronski and outside linebacker Dave Robinson are worthy of election as well.

In the mid-1980s, Kramer went to Little Falls, Minn., to see Gillingham for “Distant Replay”, the follow-up to his best-selling diary of the 1967 season, “Instant Replay.” Just before he left, Kramer asked his old teammate what he remembered best about his football career. Gillingham didn’t talk about any particular play or any specific game, like the Ice Bowl or either of the Super Bowls. What mattered most to Gale Gillingham was the feeling of anticipation in the moments leading up to the opening kickoff. “I love my kids dearly”, he said, “but I have never been as close to people as I was every Sunday when I walked through that damn tunnel to the field. I thought so much of those guys walking with me, I didn’t want to do anything to let them down. We would kill for each other. We would die for each other. We would do anything for each other.”

Andy Barall writes about pro football history for The Fifth Down.

Week 5 N.F.L. Matchups: Another Turning Point

Packers (4-0) at Falcons (2-2)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Line: Packers by 6.
Tramon Williams’s end-of-half interception return for the Packers against the Falcons in last year’s playoffs may be remembered as a turning point in N.F.L. history. The Falcons were the better team entering the game, and while the Packers held a 21-14 lead before the play, the Falcons were driving and appeared likely to score. Williams’s interception turned the game into a rout, and the Packers have been unbeatable ever since, while the Falcons have replaced them as the team with a young quarterback and lots of talent that cannot quite get its act together.
Of course, for some that turning point arrived a little late. “I’m really surprised that it kind of took him so long,” Brett Favre said of the three interminable years it took Aaron Rodgers to lead the Packers to the Super Bowl. Who knew that through all of those quasi-retirements, through his stints with the Jets and the Vikings, Favre was just impatiently waiting for Rodgers to close the deal? Favre did not sound as if  he was trying to insult Rodgers — he has simply lost the ability to compliment people who are not him — but teammates and analysts have rushed to Rodgers’s defense, which he does not really need.
It had been peaceful months since the last self-serving Favre rant. What took him so long? Pick: Packers

Saints (3-1) at Panthers (1-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Saints by 6.5.
The proper transitional form between terrible and great for an N.F.L. team is not “average,” but “interesting.” Average teams get stuck at average, or worse, get stuck in the N.F.C. West. Interesting teams, with great strengths but fascinating flaws, are usually on the fast track up or down. The Panthers are going up; the road down goes straight through Philadelphia.
The Panthers are interesting because Cam Newton has settled into his role as the league’s hottest prospect. His developing skills in the pocket make him more than just a scrambles-and-bombs playground passer, though the scrambles and bombs remain frequent and fun. Steve Smith has been rejuvenated by Newton’s presence and is averaging 22.1 yards per catch. The supporting cast — running backs Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, tight ends Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey — is deep and multi-talented. Defensively, the Panthers do not have much, but that keeps things entertaining.
The Saints are always interesting, except when they play the Jaguars, who bring the bland with them. The Panthers are no match for the Saints just yet, but they are now game for a 34-29 or 40-33 final score, which is the next best thing to winning after a year of watching Jimmy Clausen throw two-yard passes to Tony Fiammetta. Pick: Saints

Raiders (2-2) at Texans (3-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Texans by 6.
Raiders Coach Hue Jackson guaranteed this week that the Raiders would win the A.F.C. West. Boy, Joe Namath starts chirping, and suddenly everyone wants to be just like him. Jackson based his reasoning on the following facts: 1.) the Raiders are pretty good; 2.) the Broncos are committed to starting Kyle Orton until this entire generation of fans is too old to remember that they drafted Tim Tebow; 3.) the Chiefs cannot beat the Vikings by 5 points without their coach and quarterback nearly coming to blows on the sideline, and 4.) the Chargers’ 330-pound nose tackle Antonio Galay drives a Hello Kitty Smart Car, removing him as a potential threat.
The Texans have made no guarantees, despite the fact that they are lingering in the national spotlight longer than usual and have a Colts-free path to the A.F.C. South title. The Texans got some good news when they learned wide receiver Andre Johnson will miss a maximum of three games with a right hamstring injury that looked far worse when he crumpled to the ground, untouched, against the Steelers last week. Even better news for the Texans: they now have enough talent in other areas to survive three games without Johnson. Pick: Texans

Titans (3-1) at Steelers (2-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Steelers by 3.
Matt Hasselbeck is the new definition of cool. Who wants to be young, strapping and handsome like Jake Locker when you can look, sound and exhibit the overall athleticism of the front man of a Buffalo Springfield tribute band? Hasselbeck is the mentor quarterback general managers dream of when they venture onto the free-agent market in search of some rickety former starter who can impart Crash Davis wisdom to the first-round pick: a sage who still has his stuff, a drama-free knuckleballer who still gets some tough outs.
Let’s hope we have a few more weeks to enjoy Hasselbeck before he is injured by the shock waves emanating from the coin toss, or worse, by an opponent. The Steelers are smarting from their loss to the Texans, and they are not known for internalizing their frustration. They also have a habit of body-slamming Titans quarterbacks to the turf (see Vince Young in last season’s game). Linebacker James Harrison is out with an eye injury, but the Steelers still have plenty of pass rush power and pent-up frustration. Get warmed up, Locker. Just in case. Pick: Steelers

Jets (2-2) at Patriots (3-1)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Patriots by 9.
This short, buried, understated game capsule is our way of modulating the volume level on our national discourse. Think of it as a “Sounds of the Ocean” generator with a noise-cancelling function that makes all of the trash talk and bluster surrounding this game sound like the distant lapping of waves against a forgotten fishing pier. Are you serene yet? Good. No, that is not Antonio Cromartie, Plaxico Burress or Santonio Holmes you hear trying to bait the Patriots with senseless trash talk. It is three far-off seagulls cawing over a crushed oyster shell. Pick: Patriots

Eagles (1-3) at Bills (3-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Eagles by 2.5.
Las Vegas likes to bill itself as the wildest place on Earth, but it is really an old-fashioned, conservative town that still reveres the Rat Pack, the 20-ounce steak, and traditional powerhouse teams facing long-time doormats. That explains the Eagles as road favorites: it is an idea as current as a Fremont Street piano bar set list. Perhaps our friends in Vegas know that the Bills are starting a rookie left tackle (Chris Hairston, in place of injured Demetrius Bell) and that the Eagles, despite the panic that has set in during their three-game losing streak, have an overwhelming talent advantage and some easy-to-fix flaws. More likely, the gambling line is catering to those in the buffet line who think the Eagles are “due.” The Eagles are indeed due for something, though no one is sure quite what. Pick: Eagles

Chiefs (1-3) at Colts (0-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Colts by 2.5.
How to win football games, the Chiefs way. Step 1: Play the Vikings. Step 2: Engage in a coach-versus-quarterback shouting match on the sideline in the middle of the game, because Todd Haley is a longtime proponent of the “succeed despite me” school of management. Step 3: Hope Ryan Succop kicks field goals from 51 and 54 yards. Repeat until December. As of this week, Peyton Manning is officially retired from these game previews until he does something more interesting than provide reaction shots from the coaches’ booth. If all he can now do is make uncomfortable-looking faces, he should join the cast of “The Office.” Pick: Colts

Bengals (2-2) at Jaguars (1-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Jaguars by 2.5.
It’s the non-Newtonian edition of the quarterback rookie battle, with Jacksonville’s Blaine Gabbert and Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton battling for second place in our hearts. While Dalton putters through his weeks, launching occasional bombs to his fellow rookie A.J. Green and doing his best to keep things close, Gabbert tries to wrap his impressionable young mind around Jack Del Rio’s pretzel logic. Gabbert threw 24 passes in the first half against the Saints last week, with the star running back Maurice Jones-Drew carrying the ball just three times in a neat inversion of Jaguars philosophy, cosmic balance and common sense. Then, late in the fourth quarter with the Jaguars trailing by 13 points, Del Rio reintroduced the running game, calling four handoffs to Jones-Drew on one drive. Gabbert would call the former Jaguars quarterback David Garrard for advice, but he does not want to get Garrard’s hopes up by making the phone ring. Pick: Bengals

Cardinals (1-3) at Vikings (0-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Vikings by 2.5.
The winning quarterback in this game gets to be the Eagles starter in 2009. Opposing defenses are not the only ones ganging up on Donovan McNabb: old-time quarterbacks have gotten into the act. Joe Theismann said that the Vikings should start Christian Ponder. Fran Tarkenton said the Vikings should start Christian Ponder. Brett Favre thinks Ponder wonders why he has not brought the Vikings a Super Bowl yet. Joe Namath was too busy ripping the Jets to offer an opinion, and Ron Jaworski may have said something, but we still have the seven-second delay button pressed. McNabb is aging so rapidly that by next week he may start criticizing himself. Pick: Cardinals

Seahawks (1-3) at Giants (3-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Giants by 9.5.
The Giants won their last two meetings with the Seahawks by a combined score of 85-13, but the Seahawks have a new weapon: the no-huddle offense. The Seahawks increased their tempo in the second half against the Falcons, scoring three touchdowns in a near-comeback victory. What makes the no-huddle click for the Seahawks? “I guess it takes the thinking out of it for us,” quarterback Tarvaris Jackson told The Seattle Post-Intelligencer. “I know for me, being a young player, I tend to think a little too much.” When your 28-year old, sixth-year quarterback claims that he is young and needs to think less, you have problems that a change of pace are not going to solve. Pick: Giants

Buccaneers (3-1) at 49ers (3-1)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: 49ers by 3.
This is a battle between the league’s two ugly-win champions. The Buccaneers committed 14 penalties on Monday night, had a touchdown and a field goal nullified by penalties, and played the first half as if they had one eye on the Rangers-Rays game. The 49ers played two impressive quarters against the Eagles, but the previous week’s 13-8 slog against the Bengals was much more in character. The 49ers have not yet scored in the first quarter this season, while the Buccaneers have just 3 first-quarter points in their last three games, so it is safe to tune in late. Pick: Buccaneers

Chargers (3-1) at Broncos (1-3)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Chargers by 4.
John Fox finally rolled out the Tim Tebow Wild Horse package last week — for one play. The Broncos lost a yard, and Tebow disappeared again. “We did it once and we lost yardage,” Fox said after the game. “It didn’t prove to be beneficial, so we went in a different direction.” Fox also took a multivitamin before the game, but since he did not feel instantly better, he stopped taking them, right after removing all of the insulation from his home because it did not provide immediate energy savings. Tebow resurfaced on the reality television program “The Biggest Loser,” where he offered this advice: “Hard work beats talent when talent does not work as hard.” Given only one chance per month, though, both hard work and talent are likely to lose a yard. Pick: Chargers

Bears (2-2) at Lions (4-0)
Monday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Lions by 5.5.
This is the week that the Lions finally fake the pass to Calvin Johnson at the goal line, then hand off to Jahvid Best. Best walks untouched into the end zone as 11 defenders (12, if Rob Ryan has any say) claw and drag Johnson to the ground. Then, Ryan and the three other defensive coordinators who allowed two touchdowns per week to Johnson get to call Lovie Smith and say they told him so. Pick: Lions

Week 3 N.F.L. Matchups

Packers (2-0) at Bears (1-1)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Packers 3.
Jay Cutler is a 50-Tesla, super-cooled, solenoid-style electromagnet for criticism. He can attract scorn from hundreds of miles away. Everything about Cutler’s career is polarizing: the gaudy statistics that contrast his 35-35 win-loss record; his penchant for turnovers; his snippy, irritable public demeanor; and his career-long association with mercurial offensive masterminds like Mike Shanahan, Josh McDaniels and Mike Martz, who only magnify his peculiar attraction-repulsion effect.
Last season’s N.F.C. championship game became Ferris Cutler’s Day Off, with the (somewhat) injured quarterback looking less willing than able on the sideline as his backups got battered by the Packers. It was the type of nonperformance that defines a career, fairly or not, and a win Sunday could deflect a tiny bit of criticism. Unfortunately, Cutler’s Bears are 1-4 against the Packers in the past two seasons, and their offensive line is still bad enough to make even the toughest quarterback consider using a sick day. Pick: Packers

Texans (2-0) at Saints (1-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Saints by 4.
Had the Texans faced the Saints last year, Drew Brees would have thrown for 600 yards. Houston’s defense has improved drastically since then. The coordinator Wade Philips has apparently grown smarter since leaving the Cowboys (it’s a common phenomenon), and newcomers like cornerback Johnathan Joseph and the rookie defensive lineman J.J. Watt have helped the star pass rusher Mario Williams make an early impact. The Texans rank first in the N.F.L. in pass defense, though the Dolphins’ defeatist attack and the Colts’ “Men of a Certain Age” offense did not offer the kind of test the Texans face this week.
The Saints offense is just like it was in previous years, only moreso: the arrivals of running backs Darren Sproles and Mark Ingram have more than offset the loss of the injured receiver Marques Colston. The offense no longer gets much attention because a) we are used to it and b) offensive production around the league is so high that Brees can complete 67.4 percent of his passes and throw for six touchdowns in two weeks without attracting notice. The first team to score 30 points will win this game, but at least the Texans defense is now good enough to keep that from happening before halftime. Pick: Saints

Giants (1-1) at Eagles (1-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Eagles by 7.
For Philadelphia, Dream Team is not a boast but a descriptor. The Eagles’ games follow the disjointed logic of the subconscious, each one a fantasia of improbable joys and unspeakable terrors jumbled together in a neurotic heap. In the fourth quarter, a fellow named Kafka arrives to make it clear that you have left the physical world for some existential realm, though Nietzsche may be more appropriate: when you gaze into the abyss, you realize that it is the middle of the Eagle defense, and Ahmad Bradshaw could easily run straight through it for a 60-yard gain.
The Giants do not expect to see the backup quarterback Mike Kafka on Sunday; Michael Vick (concussion) made progress during the week and is capable of producing much more tangible nightmares. Memories of the Eagles’ comeback last season are fresh for the Giants, and while punter Steve Weatherford has vowed to kick the ball where he is told (i.e. nowhere near DeSean Jackson in the fourth quarter), nothing in dreams or Eagles games happens quite the way you expect it to. Pick: Eagles

Falcons (1-1) at Buccaneers (1-1)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Buccaneers by 1.
When the former Falcons punter-kickoff specialist Michael Koenen signed a $19.5 million contract with Tampa Bay, it appeared that the league’s general managers had grown a little lockout-loopy and wanted to spend big money on anyone, even a punter-kickoff specialist, just to get the tingle back. But as ESPN.com noted this week, the Buccaneers’ move has paid dividends. Koenen is averaging 49.5 yards per punt, and his two kickoffs that weren’t touchbacks were returned a total of 17 yards. He also executed a successful onside kick. His rookie replacement in Atlanta, Matt Bosher, shanked an 18-yard punt against the Eagles and is one of the few kickoff specialists in the league who cannot consistently produce touchbacks.
Bosher costs the Falcons almost $3 million less than Koenen, but four of the last five games between these teams have been decided by a touchdown or less, so trading a lot of money for a little field position could come back to haunt them. Pick: Buccaneers

Steelers (1-1) at Colts (0-2)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Line: Steelers by 10.
Opinions on how the Colts should address their quarterback problem correspond directly to the speaker or writer’s overarching philosophical stance. The optimist waits for Peyton Manning to return. (“He will return. He must return.”) The pessimist wants to give up and draft Andrew Luck. (“This era is over. Can’t you see it’s over?”) The pragmatist looks to the young backup Curtis Painter. (“Let’s use this opportunity to evaluate some prospects.”) The realist advocates sticking with Kerry Collins. (“There are no viable solutions, so we might as well get our $4 million worth.”) The nihilist wants to call Brett Favre. (“The season is ruined, so why not destroy hope and sanity as well?”) The cynic comments on all of the others from above the fray, mocking their opinions but offering no viable alternatives, and profiting from the enterprise. Pick: Steelers

Patriots (2-0) at Bills (2-0)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Patriots by 8.
The Patriots lead the league with 563 yards per game, but the Bills lead the N.F.L. in scoring with 79 points. Both teams are on pace to break offensive records set by the Patriots during their 2007 Year of Hubris, but while the Patriots do this sort of thing all the time, the Bills are still figuring out how to cope with success. Both quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and receiver Steve Johnson become free agents at the end of the season, and every time they connect for a touchdown, it raises their market value to too-expensive-for-Buffalo heights. Pick: Patriots

Jaguars (1-1) at Panthers (0-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Panthers by 3.
Rookie watchers alert: Blaine Gabbert makes the first start of his N.F.L. career this week. He is already a dozen laps behind Cam Newton in the rookie of the year race; not only does Newton lead the Panthers in passing and rushing, but he also leads an offense that ranks second in the league to the Patriots in net yards. Gabbert had to wait for his chance behind the ineffective journeyman Luke McCown, who replaced David Garrard, who was released just days before the season opener in a money-saving move. It is the kind of disorderly succession we normally associate with island nations ruled by individuals with the official title of “strong man,” but this is really how the Jaguars conduct business. Pick: Panthers

Broncos (1-1) at Titans (1-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Titans by 6.
Random fact: the Titans have not yet returned a kickoff this year, while the Broncos have not yet allowed a kickoff return. Broncos kicker Matt Prater is 10 for 10 on touchbacks, but this is his first trip out of the rocket propulsion laboratory in Denver this season, so he is due to send one less than 70 yards. Mark Mariani is theoretically the Titans’ kickoff returner, though the team may want to consider Chris Johnson (probable, ribs), who is averaging 2.3 yards per carry after signing a $53 million contract and needs to start making some positive contributions. Pick: Titans

Lions (2-0) at Vikings (0-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Lions by 3.
The Vikings have outscored opponents, 34-7, in the first half this season, only to be outscored, 41-3, in the second. Strange personnel decisions have hurt them late in games. The injury-prone receiver Percy Harvin has become the porcelain tea service that is too precious to actually use: he often leaves the game in critical situations so that he will be available for hypothetical even-more-critical situations that never come. The Lions have a chance to make a statement this week. That statement is “beating the Chiefs really does count.” Pick: Lions

Dolphins (0-2) at Browns (1-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Browns by 2.
The Dolphins’ early-season woes transcend bad play and bad luck. The issue is now bad posture. “It’s a body-language thing,” safety Yeremiah Bell told The Palm Beach Post. “If you’ve got bad body language, that’s not a good sign.” Coaches have spent the week stressing to Dolphins receivers that they should not curl into the fetal position after incomplete passes. Pick: Browns

49ers (1-1) at Bengals (1-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Bengals by 2.
The 49ers needed two special-teams touchdowns to beat the merrily bumbling Seahawks, then fell victim to Romo: the Resurrection in an overtime loss to the Cowboys. With their stout defense, exceptional kicking game and nearlyadequate offense, the 49ers are arguably the best team in the N.F.C. West. If fainter praise exists, you do not want to be damned by it. Pick: Bengals

Jets (2-0) at Raiders (1-1)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Jets by 3.
Stop us if you have heard this before: the Raiders have an exciting new rookie wide receiver, a former high school track champion with iffy football fundamentals. This time it’s Denarius Moore, who has five catches for a whopping 146 yards this season. He also gained 25 yards on a reverse, because the Raiders cannot count on Jason Campbell to throw the ball to wide receivers and therefore often ask him to hand it to them. These Raiders burners have a way of burning out after a game or two. After his trip to Revis Island, Moore will still be the Raiders’ top receiver. With five catches for 146 yards. Pick: Jets

Ravens (1-1) at Rams (0-2)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Ravens by 3.
The Rams are 1 of 5 on red-zone conversions this year, but the way they screw up near the goal line makes them compelling to watch. They drive effortlessly down the field, get inside the 20-yard line, then turn and pitch the ball straight backward so opposing defenders can scoop and score. The laterals to nowhere are interspersed with bouts of crippling stage fright at around the 5-yard line, with Sam Bradford spraying passes outside the diving reach of his receivers. The possible return of the powerful running back Steven Jackson (day-to-day, thigh) could help; when your your top red-zone weapons are guys like Greg Salas, the urge to just heave the ball away in frustration must be powerful. Pick: Ravens

Chiefs (0-2) at Chargers (1-1)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Chargers by 14.
Last week, we explored Bill Belichick’s perpetual post-victory grouchiness. This week, we bathe in the eternal sunshine of Norv Turner’s mind after losing to Belichick’s Patriots. “I’m so excited about our football team,” Turner said before channeling Ernie (Let’s Play Two) Banks. “Obviously, when you have a game like this, you can’t wait to go play again.” Obviously; who wouldn’t want to relive the magic of a four-turnover 35-21 loss? It is always sunny in San Diego, and in Turner’s psyche, because the Chargers do look great when not making mistakes in the red zone, and the A.F.C West gets weaker every time Todd Haley makes a decision. Pick: Chargers

Cardinals (1-1) at Seahawks (0-2)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Cardinals by 3.
The Seahawks’ offensive highlight reel is so short that it is a subliminal message. The team averages just 3.8 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 31st in the N.F.L. (or dead last if you no longer count the Chiefs). The running game produces just 2.7 yards per carry, so at least no one can point fingers. The Cardinals have allowed 713 passing yards to Cam Newton and Rex Grossman in the first two games, so if the Seahawks cannot get something going this week, they never will. Pick: Cardinals

Redskins (2-0) at Cowboys (1-1)
Monday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Cowboys 5.
Tony Romo led the Cowboys to an overtime victory last week over the 49ers despite cracked ribs and a punctured lung. In light of this effort, we would like to apologize for a few of our slights against Romo’s toughness over the years: wise-cracking about Cabo vacations, mistaking Carrie Underwood songs for scouting reports and so on. Rex Grossman may also someday merit an apology, but let’s wait for him to go two straight weeks without a two-interception game before we get carried away. Pick: Cowboys

Times are Eastern. Picks do not reflect the betting line.

Has Balance of Power in N.F.L. Swung Back to the N.F.C.?

Was it really only two seasons ago that the A.F.C.  was in the midst of a 13-year-long stretch of dominance over the N.F.C.?

In December 2009, Indianapolis was at the top of the N.F.L. heap. The Colts nearly completed a perfect regular season, falling short in Week 16. And that loss was controversial because  Coach Jim Caldwell pulled many of his starters in the second half of a Jets victory. At the time, many observers considered the ironman Peyton Manning to be the best quarterback in the N.F.L.

When the Colts got to Super Bowl XLIV weeks later, they were favorites to beat New Orleans and give the A.F.C. its 10th Super Bowl championship in 13 seasons, dating to Denver’s victory over Green Bay after the 1997 season.

How times have changed.

Since the Saints upset the Colts, the N.F.C. has been rejuvenated. Tonight’s season-opening game between the N.F.C. powerhouses New Orleans and Green Bay will be a matchup of the last two Super Bowl champions. Both quarterbacks — the Packers’ Aaron Rodgers and the Saints’ Drew Brees — are considered to be two of the best in the league.

And Peyton Manning?

His run of playing in every game since coming into the N.F.L. in 1998 (227 consecutive starts, including playoffs) is over, and there is no timetable for his return.

Jets Coach Rex Ryan may not agree, but these are just a few of the reasons to believe that the pendulum has already swung back to the N.F.C., which won 13 consecutive Super Bowls from 1985-1997.

1) How has the A.F.C. gotten weaker?
Let’s start with Manning. The Colts’ announcement that Manning is out indefinitely with his neck injury sounds ominous. Could he be back in a few weeks? Maybe. But his type of injury  doesn’t seem to have a history of quick recoveries.

There are other reasons besides the Colts in the South Division. Jacksonville’s decision to cut starting quarterback David Garrard doesn’t inspire confidence, especially since the Jaguars are coming off an 8-8 season and Maurice Jones-Drew is still on the mend from off-season knee surgery. The division’s other teams, Houston and Tennessee, were 6-10 last season. The Titans’ star running back, Chris Johnson, missed almost all of training camp in a contract dispute, and his durability could be in question. The A.F.C. South very well could challenge the N.F.C. West from last season for ineptitude.

Want more? The Patriots’ Tom Brady is 34 and going on four years since he last won a playoff game. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati’s former Pro Bowl quarterback, is sitting out the season. You don’t have to look far to see the drain of talent from the conference.

A bright side for the A.F.C.? It holds the three best defenses in the N.F.L. from 2010 (San Diego, Pittsburgh and the Jets).

2) How has the N.F.C. gotten stronger?

For starters, Brees and Rodgers have established themselves as superstars and Super Bowl champions in the last two seasons.

There is plenty more. Michael Vick’s return to prominence last season has put a new face on the Eagles’ franchise, and helps put Philadelphia in any Super Bowl conversation. The Eagles are loaded on both sides of the ball and may be deserving of their Dream Team moniker.

Although much maligned, Jay Cutler helped lead Chicago to the N.F.C. championship game in his second season with the Bears since being being acquired from Denver. Detroit appears to be on an upswing led by Coach Jim Schwartz and Matthew Stafford, both heading into their third year. And, yes, it was defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh who reminded everyone earlier in this preseason that the best way to slow New England is to get in the grill of quarterback Tom Brady.

In the West, the Rams second-year quarterback Sam Bradford has  shown that he could become a star in the near future.

Could a rivalry between New Orleans and Green Bay emerge and be comparable to New England’s and Indianapolis’s from the previous decade? Are the strongest divisions in the N.F.L. in the N.F.C.?  The road to Super Bowl XLVI begins tonight.

Extra Point Are you ready to talk some football? Join a live discussion tonight from 6 p.m. to 7 p.m. by clicking on the box below as George Bretherton and Bret Leuthner host a season kickoff show. Listen in or call us at 480-409-3547.

Live broadcasting by Ustream

E-mail: Georgeb@nytimes.com or follow George on Twitter

Remembering Don Chandler, Former Giant and Packer

A few thoughts about Don Chandler, who began his career on the 1956 N.F.L. champion New York Giants and ended it on the 1967 Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers. In between he was one of the best punters and place-kickers of his era. Chandler died Thursday in Tulsa, Okla., at age 76.

Don Chandler was part of two of pro football’s most celebrated teams: the late 1950s and early 1960s New York Giants and, from 1965 to 1967, the final three years of the Lombardi dynasty in Green Bay. In his 12-year career, he played in nine N.F.L. championship games, including the overtime classic at Yankee Stadium in 1958, and the Ice Bowl at Lambeau Field nine years later. He’s perhaps best remembered for one crucial kick in 1965 that many, including Chandler himself, thought he missed. It remains probably the most controversial field goal in N.F.L. history.

Chandler was a three time All-Southern Conference halfback and punter for the University of Florida before he was selected by the Giants in the fifth round of the 1956 draft (57th over all). He signed a contract for a $7,200 salary with a $500 bonus and reported to his first training camp at Saint Michael’s college in the Winooski Park section of Colchester, Vt. It was almost his last.

In late August, Chandler and another rookie, Sam Huff, decided to pack their bags and leave. Huff was later persuaded to stay but Chandler was determined to go home and forget about pro football. He later said he had hurt his shoulder earlier in camp and thought he was going to be cut anyway.

Chandler hitched a ride to the Burlington airport and was waiting for his flight when he was confronted with the full fury of one of the Giants’ assistant coaches. It was Vince Lombardi. “Now hold on!” Lombardi screamed. “You may not make this club, Chandler, but you’re sure as hell not quitting on me now!… Now get the hell back to Saint Michael’s and be at practice tomorrow morning!” (Jack Cavanaugh, “Giants Among Men”, Random House, 2008) Chandler immediately went back to the dormitory. It was his first exposure to the Lombardi mystique.

Over his 11 season as a full-time punter, Chandler averaged 43.5 yards per punt and finished in the top five in yearly average seven times. He was elected to the Pro Bowl in 1967 and was later named as the punter on the N.F.L.’s all-decade team of the 1960s.

Chandler was especially effective under pressure, when the offense was backed up deep in its territory. In nine years with the Giants, he averaged 51 yards per punt out of his end zone. Chandler, Detroit’s Yale Lary and San Francisco’s Tommy Davis were the best punters of that era.

Except for one field-goal attempt in 1959, the Giants used Chandler exclusively as a punter in his first six seasons, from 1956 to 1961. In 1962, after Pat Summerall retired, he also assumed the place-kicking duties. In 1963, Chandler made 18 of 29 field-goal attempts ( a high percentage for that time), and added 52 extra points to lead the league in scoring with 106 points.

Chandler used a black high-top with a square toe for field goals and extra points, and a standard low-cut shoe for punting. He frequently had to change shoes when the offense moved the ball across midfield. “Sometimes I feel like the one-armed paperhanger”, Chandler said. “The coach changes his mind and I have to change my shoe. The low one isn’t bad but lacing up the other takes time.” (Gene Hintz, “Kicking”, Green Bay Packer yearbook, 1965)

The Giants traded Chandler to the Packers in the spring of 1965. Lombardi was looking for a kicker because Paul Hornung made just 12 of 38 attempts in 1964. Hornung also missed two critical extra-points in one-point losses to the Colts and Vikings early that season. In his first year in Green Bay, Chandler set an N.F.L. record with a 90-yard punt against the 49ers.

In 1965 the Packers and the Colts finished in a tie for first place in the Western Division. The teams met in a playoff at Lambeau Field to determine who would play Cleveland in the championship game. Late in the fourth quarter, with Baltimore leading, 10-7, Chandler attempted a 22-yard field goal to tie the game and most likely send it to overtime. After striking the ball, Chandler looked up and immediately threw his head back in disgust, believing he had missed. As the Colts began to celebrate, the field judge, Jim Tunney, positioned behind the end line, raised both arms to signal that the kick was good. Chandler won it with a 25-yard field goal 13:39 into overtime. This time, the kick was right down the middle.

Did Chandler make that field goal? The end zone angle provided by NFL Films shows the ball well above and then clearly outside the right upright. The holder, Bart Starr, has always maintained that the kick was good and, as Bill Curry says, “Bart doesn’t lie about anything.” (NFL Films America’s Game: 1966 Green Bay Packers) The Colts never got over it. Tunney, who later worked three Super Bowls as a referee, told The Times in 2008: “I think I got it right. But every time I’d run into Don Shula, Tom Matte and John Unitas, even years later, they’d always tell me I was wrong.” (See video at top at about the 4:53 mark.)

The next spring, the owners voted to extend the height of the uprights from 10 to 20 feet above the crossbar and to station two officials in the back of the end zone on extra-point and field-goal attempts, one behind each upright.

A week after beating the Colts, the Packers defeated the Browns to win the first of three consecutive N.F.L. championships. Their wins against the Cowboys in 1966 and 1967 were followed by victories over Kansas City and Oakland in the first two Super Bowls. Late in the ‘67 season, Chandler decided that he would retire at the end of the year.

In Super Bowl 2 in Miami, Starr threw a long touchdown pass, Herb Adderley returned an interception for another score, and Chandler, playing in his last meaningful game, kicked a record four field goals as the Packers became champions again. After the game there wasn’t much celebrating. During the week, the players sensed it would be Lombardi’s last game as their coach. Many, like guard Jerry Kramer, had been with him from the beginning, in 1959. They knew an era was ending.

Now, as his teammates quietly showered, dressed and began to leave, Kramer just sat at his locker trying, as he says in conclusion in “Instant Replay,” “to keep my uniform on as long as I possibly could.”