Week 10 Live: Jets-Patriots Win Probability

The Fifth Down will track the win probability for the Jets and the Patriots throughout Sunday night’s showdown at MetLife Stadium. We did it for the first meeting between the teams in Week 5, but a quick review for those unfamiliar with the metric from Advanced NFL Stats.

Win probability measures just that — the probability that each team will win the game at any moment. This, of course, varies with the twists and turns of each game, so an early lead raises the odds a team will win, but a turnover or a big play can turn it around.

The Jets have to deal with the Patriots first, but their win probability against the Broncos on Thursday night will be an interesting talking point this week. The Broncos won at 1 p.m. on Sunday. The Jets are playing the Sunday night game, then have a short week to prepare for Tim Tebow, who earlier in the day won for the third time in four games.

Preparing for the Broncos these days is like preparing for an Oklahoma high school team; Tebow completed only two of his eight passes Sunday. But he does pose his own brand of tricky problems. And while he hasn’t exactly beaten the ’85 Bears — his three recent wins came against the Dolphins, the Raiders and the Chiefs — he has been good enough to be taken seriously.

The question is: will the Jets do that, and will the short week work against them?

The Jets takes the opening kickoff the length of the field, stall at the 6 and then see Nick Folk miss a 24-yard field goal attempt. Their win probability instantly swings from 67 percent to 48, even though the score never changed.

Two Stephen Gostkowski field goals are all that separate the teams, who offensive stats are remarkably similar.

Jamaal Westerman gets the Jets on the board with a two-run homer safety. Brady had no chance there; Westerman doesn’t get credit for the sack, since Brady got off a left-handed pass. But intentional grounding out of the end zone is an automatic safety. So now the Jets will get the ball back with a chance to turn things around before halftime.

The Jets have actually outgained the Patriots so far, and should go into the half with a two-to-one edge in time of possession if they manage this last drive right. If they manage it into points, they’ll be even happier.

Happier, certainly, than Brady (7 of 16, 129 yards) looks right now.

I realize that Brady is Brady, but he’s not Brady tonight. At least not so far.Mon Nov 14 02:17:53 via webBen Shpigel
benshpigel

The Jet’s win probability surged over 50 percent for the first time since their field-goal miss when they grabbed the lead on Mark Sanchez’s 2-yard touchdown run, but Brady led the Patriots right back down the field to grab it back on an 18-yard touchdown catch by Rob Gronkowski.

Halftime: Patriots 13, Jets 9.

The Jets are down by 7 points. But it feels like more, no?Mon Nov 14 03:46:24 via webBen Shpigel
benshpigel

Yes, it does. And as I type those words, the Patriots pick off a tipped pass.

Gronkowski’s second touchdown catch extends New England’s lead to 14 points and pushes its win probability to 94 percent with four minutes left in the third quarter.

Guess the algorithm didn’t see the highlights of the Patriots’ fourth-quarter disaster against the Giants last week.

Plaxico Burress catches a 7-yard score but Deion Branch restores New England’s two-touchdown lead with an 8-yarder. It’s getting away from the Jets now; with eight minutes left, they’re entering flatline territory on the chart.

So the Patriots sweep the season series. What’s the probability these teams haven’t seen the last of each other this year? Pretty good.

Third-Rate Showing for Jets

A capsule look at the Jets’ 37-16 loss to the Patriots:

Notable Numbers: 5 for 13

That was the Jets’ success rate on third down, a poor showing for a team that thought it had solved its woes with three consecutive games of efficiency. The Jets had converted 20 of 39 third downs during their three-game winning streak — 14 of 24 over the last two — but New England thwarted their first five chances, preventing them from getting into an offensive groove.

Key Play/Performance
It was bad enough for the Jets that Joe McKnight, one of their top special-teams players, muffed a punt deep in his own territory. But it was worse still that they missed several chances to fall on the loose ball, including Donald Strickland, who landed on top of it before it somehow squirted loose. Consider it an opportunity missed on a night full of them.

Talking Point
Can the Jets move past this crushing loss and recover in time for a swift turnaround Thursday night against the resurgent Broncos?

Patriots at Jets: Matchup to Watch

Patriots (5-3) at Jets (5-3), 8:20 p.m. Eastern, NBC

Matchup to Watch: Mark Sanchez vs. Patriots’ defense

A major beneficiary of the Jets’ improved rushing offense has been Sanchez, who is passing less but succeeding more. During the last four games, his completion rate was 60.7 percent and he had seven touchdown passes, with two interceptions. For the Jets to win on Sunday, they do not need Sanchez — nor will they ask him — to shred the Patriots’ dreadful pass defense, as did the victorious quarterbacks Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning. They just need him to play efficiently, which is what he has done over their three-game winning streak.

Number to Watch: 152
That is how many rushing yards the Patriots totaled Oct. 9, taking advantage of the Jets’ extra defensive backs inserted to protect against the pass. “They ran the ball more effectively than obviously we wanted them to or even expected them to,” Coach Rex Ryan said. Still wary of Tom Brady, the Jets are likely to use a similar strategy, when they will see just how much their emphasis on alignment, assignment and technique has paid off.

Quotation of the Week

‘It’s one of those deals where they know that we know that we know that they know that we know.’

Coach BILL BELICHICK of the Patriots, when asked about the challenges of preparing for a team they played five weeks earlier.

Week 10 Matchups: The Rivalry Everyone Is Talking About

Patriots (5-3) at Jets (5-3)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Line: Jets by 1.
The seventh annual Patriots Dynasty Deathwatch is under way. The team has lost two straight games, prompting the usual hand-wringing about eras ending and la belle époque coming to a melancholy fin. We have now endured over a half-decade of laments about how a team that routinely wins 11 to 16 games per year is not what it used to be, simultaneously criticizing Bill Belichick for his recent personnel decisions and genuflecting before the altar of his past accomplishments. No wonder otherwise sane people ardently root against this team.
The Patriots’ need to prolong their dramatic swoon to William Shatner lengths, coupled with the usual noisy Jets’ chest thumping, has turned this into the most torturously overblown rivalry in the N.F.L. Unless you are a lifelong Jets or Patriots fan, you feel you have been clamped to your seat, eyelids taped open, neck immobilized and forced to watch. It’s less a battle of two great teams (both are highly flawed this season) than a battle of attention hounds of differing styles. The Jets should win easily — the Patriots have only one starting-caliber cornerback to handle three very good Jets receivers — but “let us again bid fond farewell to the glorious Patriots” conversations that will dominate the following week make it almost not worth the trouble. Pick: Jets.

Lions (6-2) at Bears (5-3)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Bears by 2.
Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh had a private meeting with Commissioner Roger Goodell last week in which Goodell reportedly clarified the N.F.L.’s rules regarding unnecessary roughness. Suh was later seen walking down Park Avenue with his hair singed and pupils dilated, like Charlton Heston coming down from Mount Sinai in “The Ten Commandments.” Suh is now the only person on earth who understands the N.F.L.’s rules regarding unnecessary roughness. Apparently, it is not some arbitrary foul based upon a referee’s personal interpretation of unenforceable, over-legislated mandates, sometimes coaxed by convincing method writhing by the quarterback. It only appears that way to the unenlightened. Goodell should meet with all of us, one by one, until everyone understands: the guy who runs your fantasy league next week, then Brian Baldinger, then finally Michael Vick, who will learn about the exceptions that apply only to him.
The Suh summit was well timed: the Bears and the Lions combined for 26 penalties in their October meeting, a few of them caused by the exuberance of Suh’s teammates and Jay Cutler’s pro wrestling reaction to every brush on the elbow. The Bears’ offensive line has solidified since that penalty-marred mess, but if Suh spreads his message of peace to his teammates, the Bears will not benefit from the 15-yard freebies the Lions have been handing out all year. Pick: Lions.

Saints (6-3) at Falcons (5-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Even.
To motivate his team after an embarrassing loss to the Rams, Sean Payton distributed red baseball bats with “Buccaneers” written on them to his players last week. The message, according to linebacker Jo-Lonn Dunbar: “Be physical, bring the wood and hit somebody.’’ The hidden message: Payton has far too much time to think of things like this while hobbling around on crutches. Soon, he will accuse Raymond Burr of burying his wife in the flower garden. Les batons rouge worked in Louisiana, but then everything has; the Saints are 4-0 at home but 2-3 on the road.
The Falcons’ defeat of the Colts last week was so easy and dull that even the referees wanted to hurry things along. “That’s the end of the fourth quarter,” Mike Carey said at the end of the third quarter, thinking wishfully. The Falcons have regained their ability to win in methodical, uninteresting ways over the last three games, but their matchups with the Saints are usually more compelling: the last three games between the teams have been decided by a field goal. Or, as Payton now calls them, three-run home runs. Pick: Saints.

Texans (6-3) at Buccaneers (4-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Texans by 3.
Buccaneers Coach Raheem Morris sent the speedy backup quarterback Josh Johnson onto the field on third-and-4 just before halftime against the Saints while trailing, 14-0. The entire Saints defense, most of the fans and even nearby wildlife sniffed out potential Wildcat-like tomfoolery — the replay shows cornerback Jabari Greer ignoring his receiver to zero in on Johnson — and the telegraphed quarterback sweep gained just one yard. Morris shrugged off criticism of the decision at his news conference. “It didn’t work, so it was a bad idea,” he said. “If it had worked, it would have been great.” Yes, it would have been the wisest decision to give a player his first action in three weeks by making him execute a poorly-designed play that everyone knows is coming in a critical situation ever made.
The Buccaneers also signed the serial loafer Albert Haynesworth this week, just hours after he was released by the Patriots. Haynesworth is the perfect weapon against the Texans’ cut-blocking strategy. Texans blockers will dive to the ground to cut block only to find Haynesworth already there, curled up and fast asleep. Pick: Texans.

Giants (6-2) at 49ers (7-1)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: 49ers by 3 .
Remember linebackers? They were huge, angry men who stuffed running plays, sacked quarterbacks, intimidated opponents and captured the imagination of fans with their athleticism and barely-controlled aggression. The linebacker went extinct in the northeastern United States when Antonio Pierce retired, but San Francisco has a thriving colony of them. The All-Pro Patrick Willis is the one you know about, but NaVorro Bowman (71 tackles), Ahmad Brooks (five sacks), the rookie Aldon Smith (six and a half sacks off the bench) and Parys Haralson (three forced fumbles) are all making their mark. They are coached by the defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who developed the great Dome Patrol Saints linebackers of the late 1980s, and all but Smith received early-career training from Mike Singletary, who was a samurai. Their great linebacking corps is one of several reasons the Niners have become the only carnivores in the N.F.C. West petting zoo, and it gives them an advantage over the Giants when playing physical punt-and-pin football. Pick: 49ers.

Steelers (6-3) at Bengals (6-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Steelers by 3.
Seeing the Bengals atop the A.F.C. North standings, with the Steelers third, creates a feeling of dislocation; it’s the kind of thing the hero of a science fiction novel notices in the newspaper before realizing he has traveled to a parallel universe. (Look at the A.F.C. South standings and you will swear you have slipped into “A Sound of Thunder.”) The Bengals have gotten where they are by being bad at nothing, which in the N.F.L. this year counts much more than being great at anything. Offense, run defense, pass defense, special teams — the Bengals are adequate in all areas, despite their reliance on rookies like Andy Dalton and A.J. Green and injuries to key players like tight end Jermaine Gresham and linebacker Rey Maualuga. The Bengals have also gutted out close wins against welterweights like the Titans and the Bills when not snacking on the Colts or the Seahawks. They face the Steelers and the Ravens three times in the next four weeks, so the divisional standings may soon return to their Earth Prime alignment. Pick: Steelers.

Broncos (3-5) at Chiefs (4-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Chiefs by 3.
It is surprising what people find surprising these days. The Broncos unveiled a “choice option” wrinkle in their offense last week, something every 10-year-old video gamer probably installed the moment he  inserted Tim Tebow into the starting lineup and began mashing buttons. It’s a simple play — Tebow either hands off from the shotgun or keeps the ball and runs, depending on the defensive formation — and an obvious tactic for a fast quarterback, but the Raiders reacted as if they were somehow unaware of Tebow’s skill set. Defenders ignored the threat of a Tebow run, then slipped while chasing him; Raiders coordinators adjusted too late to a strategy they should have anticipated during their weekly preparation. Tebow boosters believe they have found the secret to his success: simply stick with these collegiate tactics and wait for the Lombardi Trophy to arrive. The real secret uncovered last Sunday? The Raiders’ defense is not very smart. Pick: Chiefs.

Cardinals (2-6) at Eagles (3-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Eagles by 14.
How will Philadelphia fans react to the return of Kevin Kolb, who ruled the city like a king from July 26 to Sept. 12, 2010? Will they cheer? Boo? Be too busy in the concession lines to care? Kolb will not even play: he was still in a protective boot in midweek, so John Skelton (who stayed out of trouble while the Cardinals special teams came back to beat the lowly Rams) gets another start. At least Kolb gets to hobble around on a familiar sideline. Pick: Eagles.

Titans (4-4) at Panthers (2-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Panthers by 3.
The Panthers’ first-year coach, Ron Rivera, thinks that his team incurs extra penalties because he has not yet earned a reputation around the league. “I feel as a first-year head coach you’re not getting the calls that you would like,” he said Monday. “Certain coaches do get a little more toward their way.” The fact that receiver Legedu Naanee has a habit of grabbing defenders in the open field — he has four holding penalties, four more than most wide receivers commit in a season — may have more to do with it than Rivera’s inexperience. Titans cornerback Cortland Finnegan was voted the league’s third-dirtiest player in a Sporting News player survey, behind Ndamukong Suh and James Harrison. Remember when Bugs Bunny learned that the bounty for a rabbit was just two cents and went on a crime spree, sawing Florida loose and filling the Grand Canyon? Finnegan is capable of similar deviltry Sunday, unless Naanee grabs him. Pick: Panthers.

Redskins (3-5) at Dolphins (1-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Dolphins by 3.
It’s not that the Redskins do not believe in rebuilding; it’s just that they do not know the meaning of the word. “I’m not even sure what you mean by rebuilding,” Mike Shanahan said Monday. That did not stop him from using the word to explain why he was initially reluctant to hire his son Kyle as offensive coordinator. “I’m the one who told Kyle not to come,” he said. “I said we’re going to have to rebuild this football team, starting on offense.” Oh, so the Redskins are rebuilding, or trying to. Or are they? “Now, with the draft, free agency, getting some young players playing as second-teamers, and they’re getting a chance to see what they can do,” Shanahan said. “Now if that’s what you call rebuilding, then we’re rebuilding.” In other words, communications and long-range planning in Washington have risen to their usual standards. Pick: Dolphins.

Rams (1-7) at Browns (3-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Browns by 2.
This week, the Rams force three Browns safeties, as Colt McCoy keeps getting flagged for intentional grounding in the end zone. McCoy tries to argue that Chris Ogbonnaya and Montario Hardesty are eligible receivers, not radio contest winners who wandered onto the field wearing helmets, but the referees refuse to take him seriously. Nursing a 6-0 lead, the Rams make the fatal mistake of trying to play offense. They then punt to Josh Cribbs, who eludes all 11 defenders on a 99-yard return, carrying several teammates on his shoulders into the end zone. Meanwhile, Peyton Hillis steals all of the holiday decorations from local malls and promises 200 turkeys to a local charity, only to show up late with three cans of pumpkin pie filling. Pick: Browns.

Bills (5-3) at Cowboys (4-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Cowboys by 5.
The Bills have 57,000 unsold tickets left for their three remaining home games, so they have announced a promotion called December Charge. You can get a 12 percent discount if you buy three tickets to games in December. Thermal underwear, snowshoes and St. Bernard not included. Order now, and you get tickets to imaginary Cowboys Stadium seats for the next Super Bowl. There’s another way to get a ticket to a Bills game: Twitter-block a linebacker. Kirk Morrison needed to swap Twitter handles with a young man from Saskatchewan also named Kirk Morrison, so he traded an all-expenses-paid trip to the Bills-Jets game for the name. Quick: register yourself as @AndrewLuckColts, @AndrewLuckDolphins and @AndrewLuckSeahawks to see what happens! Pick: Bills.

Jaguars (2-6) at Colts (0-9)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Jaguars by 3.
The Colts and the Jaguars have met 20 times. Peyton Manning was the Colts quarterback for 19 of those meetings. The only other quarterback to start a game for the Colts against the Jaguars was Craig Erickson in 1995: he threw just 16 passes, but two of them were touchdowns in a 41-31 victory. No word yet on whether the Colts have contacted Erickson for Sunday. Pick: Jaguars.

Ravens (6-2) at Seahawks (2-6)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Ravens by 6.
Ravens Coach John Harbaugh had a large bruise on his chin during his Monday news conference. It seems that after Baltimore’s win over the Steelers, General Manager Ozzie Newsome met Harbaugh in the tunnel and applied the kind of celebratory hug that often ends with a $20,000 fine from the commissioner’s office. Two weeks ago, Pete Carroll explained that coaches go for touchdowns when they get “hormonal”; apparently, general managers go for coaches. Joe Flacco’s last-minute comeback against the Steelers changed experts’ perceptions of him because he did exactly what he always does — throw bombs and sideline passes, get used as James Harrison’s scratching post — in a slightly different order. The Seahawks’ offensive philosophy this year is to keep their time of possession so low that nobody notices them. Pick: Ravens.

Vikings (2-6) at Packers (8-0)
Monday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Packers by 13.
In the last two games, including one against the Vikings, Aaron Rodgers has thrown seven touchdown passes and just 11 incomplete passes. When he drops back to pass, he is nearly as likely to throw a touchdown (10.9 percent chance) as an incompletion (17.6 percent), though his chance to be sacked (12.5 percent) is somewhere in between. The Vikings’ chances of winning rest with the Packers’ defense playing another messy game like last Sunday’s, in which it allowed 38 points while scoring 14. Christian Ponder led a near-comeback against the Packers three weeks ago, and it may happen again, but you cannot like the odds. Pick: Packers.

All Times Eastern. Picks do not reflect the point spread. 

Week 10 N.F.L. Game Probabilities: A Jets-Patriots Tossup

It’s now the Jets’ turn to represent New York against the Patriots. The twist in this matchup is that the Jets think they’re a running team, when they’re actually more productive when passing. And the Patriots are thought of as a sophisticated finesse passing offense, when they’re also one of the best running teams in the league.

The Jets’ Expected Points Added (EPA) — a measure of net scoring capacity — totals 0.02 when running and 14.1 when passing. And on a per play basis, passing is remarkably more effective than running for the Jets.

The Patriots’ running game is strong, with a solid 4.5 yards per carry (YPC) average and, more important, a 49 percent success rate (SR). The last time the teams met, running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis ran for 136 yards on 27 carries, good for 5.0 yards per carry and a 57 percent SR. Much of New England’s running success is because defenses are on their heels, focused on containing Welker, Hernandez and Gronkowski.

Here’s how both teams stack up at this point in the season:

 

In terms of predictive efficiency, the Jets rank 20th on offense and 5th on defense, while the Patriots rank 2nd on offense and 25th on defense. Both teams have had tough schedules, with the Patriots having a slightly tougher one. New England is reeling from two consecutive losses, but they’re the better team at the moment. The Jets have home-field advantage this time around, so the efficiency model is in agreement with the larger consensus that this game is a virtual tossup.

Here are the Game probabilities for Week 10.
(For more on the prediction model and its accuracy, see this post.

 

Brian Burke, a former Navy pilot who has taken up the less dangerous hobby of N.F.L. statistical analysis, operates Advanced NFL Stats, a blog about football, math and human behavior.

For Giants, a Little More Drama to End the Week

A capsule look at the Giants’ 24-20 win over the Patriots on Sunday:

Key Performance

Steve Weatherford was the star of the first half, as the Giants punted on each of their six possessions. Weatherford finished the game with eight punts for an average of 43.1 yards, and pinned the Patriots on or inside their 20 six times.

Notable Number

Mathias Kiwanuka had 12 tackles, leading the Giants’ defense. Kiwanuka, who has been shuttled from linebacker to defensive end and back this season, also recorded his first interception since 2006 when he snatched a Tom Brady pass out of the air after Michael Boley tipped it.

Talking Point

The Giants played a sixth straight game in which the decisive score came with nine minutes or less remaining (they won five of the games). Anxious fans everywhere must be wondering: Can the Giants ever win a game easily?

Moving Month for Jets?

The third round of a golf major is called moving day because the tournament winner often comes from a group of players who surged on Saturday. It’s hard to picture Rex Ryan in golfing knickers, but his Jets seem poised to make a big move in November, the third month of the N.F.L. season.

The Jets’ 27-11 victory over the Bills was their finest all-around performance of the season. Were there penalties and some sloppiness that need to be addressed? Sure. But only three weeks ago, the Jets appeared in danger of “missing the cut” when they lost to the Patriots in Foxborough. At 2-3, the Jets were scuffling, and the Patriots were soaring at 4-1.

Now the Jets are tied for first place in the A.F.C. East with the Bills and Patriots. The Jets appear to be gearing up for their stretch run by sharpening their overall game.

On Sunday, Mark Sanchez (20 of 28, 230 yards, TD, INT), who was solid against the Bills, likened next Sunday’s game against the suddenly reeling Patriots to a divisional championship game.

Let’s take a quick look at what will be on the horizon for the Jets if they can continue to refine their game and find a way to hand the Patriots their third consecutive loss  Sunday night at MetLife Stadium.

1) The Jets would be, at worst, tied for first place in the A.F.C. East with the Bills, who have to travel to Dallas. A Bills loss to the Cowboys would give the Jets sole possession of first. In addition, the Jets would have a one-game lead over the Patriots and would hold the tiebreak edge in the division (Jets 3-1, Patriots 2-2).

2) Cincinnati (6-2) surprisingly sits atop the A.F.C. North, but it has a difficult schedule coming up. Cincinnati is tied with Baltimore at 6-2, but the Bengals  currently hold a tiebreak edge. After next Sunday’s game against the 6-3 Steelers, the Bengals play the Ravens in Baltimore on Nov. 20. Cincinnati may catch a break with Cleveland on Nov. 27, but the Bengals then have to travel to Pittsburgh on Dec. 4. In any case, the A.F.C. North rivals Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Baltimore will be beating up on one another in the coming weeks.

3) The A.F.C. West had a terrible day. The three teams that were tied for the division lead all lost. San Diego, Oakland and Kansas City lead the division at 4-4, with Denver only a game back at 3-5.

4) A.F.C. South-leading Houston (6-3) has a tough assignment.  The Texans play at Tampa Bay next Sunday before a bye week.

If the Jets can beat New England and seize control of the A.F.C. East, they will immediately become a player in the overall A.F.C. picture.

Extra point Is November going to become moving month for the Jets?

Giants at Patriots: Matchup to Watch

Giants (5-2) at Patriots (5-2), 4:15 p.m. Eastern, Fox

Matchup to Watch: BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Kevin Faulk vs. the Giants’ defensive line

Justin Tuck responded to a recent question about the Giants’ run defense by saying, “I don’t want to talk about it,” and his hesitation was understandable. The Giants are allowing 130.1 rushing yards a game this season, the fifth-worst average in the N.F.L. While Tom Brady and Wes Welker get most of the attention, Green-Ellis and Faulk may be New England’s biggest threats.

Number to Watch: 323.1

The number of passing yards the Patriots’ defense has allowed per game this season, creating an unusual set of circumstances for this rematch of Super Bowl XLII. The Giants, traditionally a run-heavy team, will almost surely lean toward passing against New England’s struggling secondary. The Patriots, known for their passing game, will probably lean toward attacking the Giants’ weakness in stopping the run.

Quotation of the Week

“I don’t know. Long term for me is Sunday afternoon against the Giants.”

Patriots Coach Bill Belichick, 59, when asked if he could envision coaching until he is 70

Week 9 N.F.L. Game Probabilities, Including Patriots vs. Giants

This Sunday’s game between the Giants and the Patriots will be the first meaningful game between the two franchises since Super Bowl XLII. This time around, the Giants have just as high-flying a passing attack as the Patriots. The big difference between them is the ground attack; the advantage clearly belongs to New England.

Although both teams enter Week 9 with virtually identical net passing yards per attempt, the Patriots are averaging 4.5 yards per carry (9th in the league) compared with the Giants’ average of 3.2 YPC (31st in the league). More important, the Patriots’ run Success Rate (SR) is 49 percent (2nd in the league) compared with 37 percent (29th in the league). I like to rely on Run SR; it happens to be far more predictive of team success than YPC.

The Patriots have a very slight edge in stopping the run too, but the big statistical difference between the defenses is in net passing efficiency. The Giants are solidly above average, ranked 11th, while the Patriots are ranked 31st.

Some analysts have suggested that the Patriots’ defensive stats are misleading. In several games their offense was able to generate such a large lead that the defense  needed to focus only on the deepest routes and keep opposing receivers in bounds to keep the clock moving. I looked at this issue recently, and it turns out that the Patriots’ defense performs almost equally well in high-leverage and low-leverage parts of games. In other words, they perform as poorly in garbage time as they do when the game is still on the line.

Put all the numbers through the wash, and the two teams come out surprisingly equal. The real difference in this game is home field advantage, which belongs to New England. Ultimately, although the Patriots are clear favorites, the efficiency stats give the Giants a much better chance than the conventional wisdom gives them.

Here are the game probabilities for Week 9.
(For more on the prediction model and its accuracy, see this post.)

Brian Burke, a former Navy pilot who has taken up the less dangerous hobby of N.F.L. statistical analysis, operates Advanced NFL Stats, a blog about football, math and human behavior.

Week 8 Quick Hits: Patriots Missing a Pass Rush Again

A quick tour of Week 8 in the N.F.L.:

Steelers 25, Patriots 17

For the second straight week, the Patriots’ high-powered offense sputtered a bit against a complex and  blitz-heavy 3-4 defense. But this game was decided on the other side of the ball. The Steelers ran 28 more plays than the Patriots and easily controlled the tempo for the first three quarters. And they did it by playing Steeler Ball – which hopefully people now realize involves spreading and passing. Ben Roethlisberger completed 36 of 50 for 365 yards. Heath Miller devoured the zones behind New England’s blitzes, finishing with 85 yards on seven receptions. Wideouts Antonio Brown, Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders each had between 5 to 9 catches and 65-75 yards.

These types of performances happen when a wide-ranging aerial attack goes up against a poor pass rush. Yes, the Patriots sacked Ben Roethlisberger five times. But that was because Roethlisberger was even more devoted to “extending the play” than usual. He realized early on that the aging Patriots ends could not turn the corner against the ho-hum-but-enormous Steeler tackles. And, surprisingly, Pittsburgh’s interior double teams on Vince Wilfork & Co. worked marvelously. This is all but officially the third year in a row that an impotent pass rush has hindered Bill Belichick’s club.

 

49ers 20, Browns 10

No two teams are as committed to hiding their quarterbacks as these two. The difference is that the 49ers hide Alex Smith behind a power run game, while the Browns hide Colt McCoy behind play-action and bootlegs (which slice the field in half for him). This box score shows which approach is best (i.e. safest/most sustainable). Frank Gore, spearheading San Francisco’s sixth-ranked rushing attack, finished with 134 yards on 31 carries. McCoy finished with four fumbles, while Browns wide receivers caught a total of 11 balls for only 116 yards.

A week after Montario Hardesty stumbled for just 95 yards on 33 carries against Seattle, the Peyton Hillis-less Browns turned their ground game over to Chris Ogbonnaya. Unfortunately, an early deficit limited the ex-Texan to just 11 attempts (he finished with 37 yards). Who at the beginning of the year would have guessed that on Halloween weekend Cleveland would be searching for its identity on the ground?

 

Bills 23, Redskins 0

This was just a preseason game that happened to be played in October. Think about it: the game took place in Toronto; the Redskins started a backup at running back, wide receiver, No. 2 tight end, center and left tackle; the Bills came in having just signed their quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick, to a long-term contract; Fox had its top color commentator, Troy Aikman, calling the game, but its top play-by-play man Joe Buck did not make the trip.

 

Lions 45, Broncos 10

At the end of the third quarter, Tim Tebow was 7 for 21 for 80 yards, and the Broncos trailed, 38-3. Despite playing with GUTS and HEART and LEADERSHIP and a SPARK (or whatever it’s called when the quarterback throws wild incompletions that are at least exciting to watch), Tebow mounted no comeback. Eric Decker’s garbage-time touchdown prevented Denver’s offense from finishing with more sacks allowed (seven) than points scored (10). Then again, considering one of those seven sacks resulted in a fumble returned for a touchdown, and considering that Tebow’s lone interception was run back for a score, Denver’s offense actually posted minus-4 points.

How about some Brady Quinn billboards this week?

 

Bengals 34, Seahawks 12

The Seahawks named Tarvaris Jackson their starter before kickoff but sent the incompetent Charlie Whitehurst out there instead. Whitehurst picked up where he left off at Cleveland last week, leaving play after play on the field and seemingly drawing the ire of his wide receivers.

Mercifully, with 10:41 remaining in the second quarter, Jackson entered the game. Which leaves you to wonder, Did Jackson, who had been sidelined since injuring his pec in Week 5, just need one more hour to get fully healthy? Or did Pete Carroll inexplicably botch the most important decision he had to make this week? If Jackson is healthy, he’s the starter – no questions asked. So what happened here? Why didn’t Jackson start originally?

 

Titans 27, Colts 10

See this separate post on the Fifth Down.

Rams 31, Saints 20

The Saints played as if they assumed that some of their excess points against Indy would carry over. In the last 40 seasons, teams are now just 1-3 in their first outing after scoring 62 or more. Steven Jackson led the way for St. Louis. The eighth-year veteran rushed for 159 yards on 25 attempts, moving past Marshall Faulk for third on the team’s career yardage list.

The tenacious and talented Jackson plays with a fiery personality that would make him a household name – and likely future Hall of Famer – if not for the fact that his team has reached the postseason just once in his career (2004). There’s still time, Steven. Leverage a trade to a contender and you might become football’s version of Kevin Garnett or Ray Bourque.

 

Giants 20, Dolphins 17

The Dolphins netted a measly 101 yards through the air. That’s two yards less than Reggie Bush had rushing. And remember, Bush stinks (he even said so).

Giant fans can fret about how hard-fought this presumed cakewalk turned out to be, but they might as well just say “whatever” and take the 5-2 record. Eli Manning picked up the slack for a running game that has been off-track for all of Subway’s $5 Foot-long Month. Manning evenly distributed 344 passing yards to a solid but unspectacular group of  wide receivers. He also found tight end Jake Ballard four times for 55 yards. Ballard is practically a clone of predecessor Kevin Boss: upright, lumbering and surprisingly effective. He entered Sunday having caught eight balls for 153 yards over his previous two games. Though not fast, he’s averaging 17.3 yards per catch, second most among tight ends with at least 10 receptions.

Vikings 24, Panthers 21

If not for a rare slip by Olindo Mare, one of the best kickers of this era, we might be discussing Cam Newton’s first overtime win, first winning streak and, perhaps, his most impressive game as a young pro. Instead, we’ll mention the solid performance of Christian Ponder and even more solid performance of Adrian Peterson, who was stymied by an uncharacteristically instinctive Panthers run defense early in the game but who compensated with a career-high 76 yards receiving (including a touchdown).

Then again, maybe we need to look at the other side of the ball. Two of Minnesota’s touchdowns were set up by sack-fumbles of Newton that were spearheaded by Jared Allen. The newly minted father is on pace for 23 sacks this season. The current single-season sack record is “21.5 plus a gift from Brett Favre,” set by Michael Strahan in 2001.

 

Ravens 30, Cardinals 27

Know why the Cardinals weren’t good enough to protect a lead? Because they weren’t good enough to really build a lead. Their 21-point second quarter surge was mostly good fortune. The first score was set up by a Ravens fumble that Darnell Dockett recovered at the Baltimore 2. The second was a Patrick Peterson punt return (spectacular play, but not something you can bank on each week). A tipped interception – courtesy of Torrey Smith – at the Raven 19 led to the third score.

But from the start, it was clear: Arizona’s offensive line could not protect Kevin Kolb. This is what lost the game for the Cardinals last week, too. Their offensive tackles are unathletic, and the collective group has had trouble executing basic protection adjustments against the blitz. That will always prove costly when you face stars like Terrell Suggs (one sack and a career-high 13 tackles, including four for a loss on Sunday).

 

Texans 24, Jaguars 14

Given Tim Tebow’s debacle and Matt Moore’s awful outing, maybe Blaine Gabbert’s 10-for-30, 97-yard passing performance has something to do with the fact that he’s a quarterback associated with the state of Florida….?

Or it could just be that the Texans’ defense has secretly blossomed under Wade Phillips. The front seven plays with vigor and creativity each week, and the back four has been buttressed by the free agent Johnathan Joseph, who has played like a true No. 1 corner.

 

Eagles 34, Cowboys 7

It was just one of those days for the Cowboys. Andy Reid’s opponents always seem to have “just one of those days” whenever Reid is coming off a bye (he’s 13-0). It was great that Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth opened a nationally televised discussion about where LeSean McCoy ranks among running backs. McCoy is on pace for over 1,600 yards rushing (he’s  second to Adrian Peterson in total rushing this season) and, at times, he’s an integral part of the passing attack.  He has  the breakaway speed that is a prerequisite for playing in Philadelphia’s offense, and he has arguably the best lateral agility in the league.

Andy Benoit is an N.F.L. analyst for CBSSports.com and founder of NFLTouchdown.com. He can be reached at andy.benoit@NFLTouchdown.com or @Andy_Benoit.

Final Dagger on 0-3 Road Trip for Jets

If the Jets knew before Sunday’s game that they would hold Wes Welker in check for the most part while limiting Tom Brady to one touchdown pass and intercepting him once, they probably would have signed up for it.

What they wouldn’t have signed up for was what happened after the Jets cut their deficit to 27-21 with 7 minutes 7 seconds left.

The Patriots put the finishing touches on the Jets’ miserable road swing by running the ball and daring the Jets to stop them. They couldn’t. Here is the sequence of New England offensive plays — the knockout punch delivered by Bill Belichick to Rex Ryan — that burned nearly five minutes off the clock until right before the two-minute warning.

1) 1st and 10 at Patriots 22 BenJarvis Green-Ellis right end for 8 yards (David Harris).
2) 2nd and 2 at Patriots 30 Brady up the middle for 3 yards (Jamaal Westerman).
3) 1st and 10 at Patriots 33 Green-Ellis left end for 15 yards (Darrelle Revis, Brodney Pool).
4) 1st and 10 at Patriots 48 Green-Ellis right guard for 6 yards (Marquice Cole).
5) 2nd and 4 at Jets 46 Green-Ellis right end for no gain (Mike Devito; Sione Pouha).
6) 3rd and 4 at Jets 46 direct snap to Green-Ellis left end for 14 yards (David Harris).
7) 1st and 10 at Jets 32 Green-Ellis left end for 5 yards (Harris).
8) 2nd and 5 at Jets 27 Green-Ellis left tackle for 3 yards (Jim Leonhard; Harris).

The Jets used their first timeout with 2:13 remaining, but by then the damage was done. In moving from their 22 to the Jets’ 24, the Patriots did not attempt a pass. The Patriots ran Green-Ellis 7 times for 54 yards, with Brady picking up 3 yards on the other play, before Brady finally attempted and completed a pass, to Rob Gronkowski for 7 yards. By the time the Jets finally held on third down at their 8, there was only 1:06 left, and the game was essentially over.

Stephen Gotskowski’s 28-yard field goal provided the final points in the Patriots’ 30-21 victory.

Extra Point Can the Jets count on their home field in the next two weeks against Miami and San Diego to help get them back on track?

Week 5 Live: Jets-Patriots Win Probability

As the Fifth Down has done several times already this season, we will be using a Web feature from Advanced NFL Stats that charts win probability live during today’s Jets-Patriots game.

A quick recap of what this chart will be showing: Win probability measures just that — the probability that each team will win the game at any moment. This, of course, varies with the twists and turns of each game, so an early lead raises the odds a team will win, but a turnover or a big play can turn it around.

Here’s last week’s graphic from the Jets-Ravens game (it will update to the Jets-Patriots graphic when they kick off at 4:15 p.m.):

Jets at Patriots: Matchup to Watch

Jets (2-2) at Patriots (3-1), 4:15 p.m. Eastern, CBS

MATCHUP TO WATCH: Patriots tight ends vs. Jets defense

Perhaps no team is better at exploiting mismatches than the Patriots, whose excellent tight-end tandem of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez shredded the Jets last year for 16 catches, 257 yards and a touchdown. In six games together this season (Hernandez has been injured), they have combined for 32 catches, 461 yards and 7 touchdowns. While also contending with Wes Welker and Deion Branch on the outside, the Jets must find a way to bottle up two of Tom Brady’s most dependable options. The onus is on the Jets’ linebackers and safeties, particularly Eric Smith, who has often ended up covering opposing tight ends.

NUMBER TO WATCH: 23

It is more than just Shonn Greene’s number. It is how many rushing attempts the Jets have averaged over their first four games, a significant drop compared with the 32.75 attempts they averaged at this point the last two seasons. Somewhere in the middle would figure to please the Jets, signaling a diversified offense and an ability to move the ball against a rushing defense that has yielded 4.8 yards a carry. Greene has yet to gain consistency, but the Jets are hopeful that will begin Sunday.

QUOTATION OF THE WEEK

‘It’s the fifth game of the season. I think that word is a little strong.’

Patriots Coach BILL BELICHICK, when asked if he expected the Jets to play with desperation Sunday after losing two consecutive games.

Week 5 N.F.L. Game Probabilities, Including Jets-Patriots

This Sunday features an A.F.C. East showdown when the Jets travel to Foxborough to take on the Patriots. I looked at my write-up for this same matchup from Week 13 last season, and much of what I wrote a year ago could be cut and pasted for this week, complete with the unstoppable force-immovable object cliché.

Again, New England leads the league in offense, and not just by a little. The Patriots top the league with 9.0 net Yards per Attempt (YPA). In their historic 2007 season, they averaged 7.8 net YPA. It’s likely that  they’ll regress toward the league mean over the remaining 12 games of the regular season, but 9.0 net YPA is a very high perch from which to regress.

The Jets’ defense is No. 1 according to my efficiency model, with near-league-leading efficiencies in pass defense, run defense and defensive interceptions. It’s going to be fun watching the matchup when the Patriots have the ball.

The other half of the game will feature a mediocre Jets offense against a league-worst Patriots defense. At 8.6 net YPA allowed, New England’s pass defense is almost as dreadful as their pass offense numbers are amazing. So despite Rex Ryan’s re-commitment to his ground-and-pound strategy, it’s probably best for the Jets to take to the air at New England. Center Nick Mangold is expected to return to the lineup, and the Patriots haven’t been able to effectively pressure quarterbacks. We might finally see what the tandem of Plaxico Burress and Santonio Holmes can do given the chance.

Unfortunately for Jets fans, the Patriots are going to be favored in this one because of  a couple of factors. First and most obvious is home-field advantage. And the second factor is that great offenses tend to be greater than great defenses. The distribution of offensive performance is significantly wider than that of defenses. In other words, defenses tend to be bunched nearer the league average. Offenses tend to drive game outcomes more than defenses.

I believe this phenomenon is due to the pre-eminent importance of the quarterback. You may have noticed that in solo sports, players can regularly dominate the field. In sports like golf and tennis, greats like Tiger Woods or Roger Federer are favored against a field of dozens throughout a majority of their careers. In a sport like basketball, where there are relatively few players, one competitor with outlier skills like Michael Jordan can still rule an entire league. But when team talent levels are averaged out over 11 players on the field, their distribution is naturally going to be bunched tighter.

Defensive team talent levels are like that. More or less, all 11 guys are equally important. In contrast, the offense places unique burdens on the quarterback. From reading defenses, to audibles, to in-play decisions, to actually throwing the ball, the quarterback carries far more than one-eleventh of the  responsibility for his team’s success. In this way, offenses are a hybrid of the solo type of sports and a large team sport, which is why we see teams like Peyton Manning’s Colts (until this season) and Tom Brady’s Patriots dominate the conference for nearly a decade.

With that, here are the game probabilities for Week 5:

Brian Burke, a former Navy pilot who has taken up the less dangerous hobby of N.F.L. statistical analysis, operates Advanced NFL Stats, a blog about football, math and human behavior.

N.F.L. Game Probabilities Are Back, With One Adjustment

Game predictions are back for 2011. As always, the probability model is based on passing, running, turnovers and penalty efficiency. But now, running is represented by Success Rate (SR) rather than Yards Per Carry (YPC). SR is the percentage of runs in which the a team’s point expectancy (based on down, distance and yard line) has improved.

SR correlates far better than YPC with winning games. YPC is too susceptible to a handful of relatively rare breakaway runs. I think of running as a jab and passing as a cross or uppercut. The jab is a low-risk punch that doesn’t expose your defenses, keeps your opponent off balance and guessing, and keeps him from purely defending against your cross. A good jab is a prerequisite, but the cross is what scores points and wins bouts.

Running can be more than that, of course. It’s essential in short yardage and inside the red zone. And when team has a lead, it burns clock and helps keep the ball out of an opponent’s hands in the fourth quarter. I believe the revised model captures this aspect of the running game and better reflects the true inner workings of the sport.

For new readers, here is refresher on how the model works. A logistic regression is fed net Yards Per Attempt (YPA), run SR, and interception rates on both offense and defense, plus offensive fumble rate. Team penalty rates (penalty yards per play) and home field advantage are also included. These particular statistics are selected because they are predictive of future outcomes, not because they explain past wins. This is a distinction overlooked by nearly all experts. Sometimes less really is more when it comes to predictions.

For example, turnover rates explain past outcomes very well, but a relatively small part of turnover rates carry forward and predict future outcomes. If a team has a very low interception rate of 1.2 percent, how likely are they to continue the season with so few interceptions? Chances are they will remain better than average, but not nearly as low as 1.2 percent. This concept is known as regression to the mean, and it’s essential for good predictions.

“Logistic regression” might sound like just mathy mumbo-jumbo, but don’t let it scare you off. The regression uses data from recent N.F.L. seasons to tell us how each facet of team performance is best weighted to predict which team will win a game. Each team variable is regressed again to account for how reliable each particular facet is throughout a season. In other words, the stats vary in terms of how consistent they are from game to game. For example, offensive passing efficiency is most consistent, and turnover rates are least consistent.

Lastly, the model adjusts for each team’s previous opponent strength. This is an especially important consideration early in the season, when some teams have only played weaker teams, and some have had to struggle against solid opponents. As the season wears on, strength of schedule will tend to even out, but never completely.

The predictions sometimes challenge our preconceived intuitions about games. If you knew nothing else about N.F.L. teams except for how well they’ve played so far this season, this is how you would want to handicap the games. Of course, we do know more than what we’ve seen the past three weeks. Sometimes that’s helpful, but at least as often it clouds our minds with bias.

For instance, this week it says Oakland should be favored to beat New England. Do I personally believe the perennial laughing stock Raiders are really better than the perennial A.F.C. East champion Patriots? Maybe not. But the model is telling us something to pay attention to. It’s saying: “Look deeper at the numbers that really matter. The Raiders might just be for real. The Patriots’ defense is just as vulnerable as they say.” So if you’re in an office pick ’em league and have to pick an upset, maybe this is the week to put your chips on Oakland.

An explanation of the principles behind the model and a detailed example of how it is calculated can be found here.

And now here are the game probabilities for Week 4:

Brian Burke, a former Navy pilot who has taken up the less dangerous hobby of N.F.L. statistical analysis, operates Advanced NFL Stats, a blog about football, math and human behavior.

Six N.F.L. Contenders, and the Way They Have Disappointed

Six of the presumptive favorites to win the Super Bowl had flaws on full display on Sunday.

For now, Green Bay looks to be the class of the league, and fans of unbeaten Buffalo and Detroit are surely proud of their teams. But four others teams — the two franchises with the best records in 2010, the only team to make the conference championship game in each of the past two seasons, and the so-called dream team — experienced varying degrees of distress. The defenses of  Rex Ryan and Bill Belichick were punctured like never before.

No Hiding the Patriots’ Defensive Woes

The Bills have now staged improbable comebacks in consecutive weeks, following up a rout of Kansas City on opening day. But the big story out of Buffalo wasn’t necessarily about the Bills.  It might have been about New England, whose defense may torpedo its chances.

Buffalo defeated New England despite falling into a 21-0 hole, a sentence that Bostonians probably never thought they would read. Under Belichick, the Pats had been 53-0 when leading by 21 or more points. In the Belichick era, the Patriots were 91-4 when jumping out to a 14-point lead at any point in the game. Belichick made his reputation on the defensive side of the ball, but he’s never coached a team as one-sided as the 2011 Patriots appear to be.

Chad Henne threw for over 400 yards in the opener against the Patriots. In New England’s game against San Diego, six of the Chargers’ nine drives went for at least 50 yards, and two of the other three might have done the same if they hadn’t ended in fumbles. Patriots victories allowed the team to minimize the reality of those defensive struggles, but the defense can’t avoid the scrutiny now.

New England has allowed 1,406 yards in the team’s first three games, the fifth-worst mark since 1970. But yardage totals aside, there’s a reason this loss feels different: Tom Brady and the Patriots  don’t lose shootouts to anyone but the Colts. During the Brady/Belichick era, the Pats had been 61-2 when scoring at least 30 points, with both losses coming to Peyton Manning and Indianapolis. Make that 61-3. The Patriots’ video-game offensive numbers had everything thinking it was 2007 all over again; the better comparison may end up being the 2000 Rams. That St. Louis squad passed for more yards than any team in league history, but the defense (ranked last in points allowed) prevented a Super Bowl repeat.

Jets Flunk First Leg of Road Trip

Rex Ryan is known for having elite defensive units. With Ryan, that  starts by stopping the run. Against the Raiders, the Jets’ defense looked anything but elite. In his first 34 games with the Jets, Rex Ryan’s defense never allowed more than 153 rushing yards (a mark hit by the Saints in 2009). The worst the Jets had been outrushed came in Week 3 of the 2009 season, when Tennessee gained 44 more rushing yards than the Jets. The Raiders rushed for 234 yards and outrushed New York by 134 yards, margins incomprehensible before Sunday.

During Ryan’s 10 seasons as an assistant in Baltimore, the high-water mark was 207 rushing yards gained by the 2008 Giants. Sunday was as unusual for New England as it was for Ryan, who has never had a worse performance against the run. An ugly interception by Mark Sanchez and an abysmal day by Antonio Cromartie were part of the problem, but inconsistent play from those two is something the Jets have endured before.  The run defense had almost never been the culprit.

Unlike the Patriots, the Jets appear to have the horses on defense to earn the benefit of the doubt. The only other game under Ryan when the run defense was primarily responsible for a loss came against Miami and the Wildcat in 2009. The Jets responded in the rematch by holding Miami to 52 rushing yards. Unfortunately for the Jets, there seems to be little margin for error in the next two weeks, with games in Baltimore and New England. The Ravens gained 553 yards of offense against the Rams, the second-highest yardage total by any team this season. Numbers one, two, and four on that list came at the hands Tom Brady and the Patriots. If the Jets still have questions about their defense two weeks from now, they may be staring at a 2-3 record.

Is That a Doughnut or the Eagles’ Defense?

A loss to the Giants doesn’t spell doom for Philadelphia: in both 2000 and 2003, Andy Reid’s Eagles made the playoffs after a 1-2 start. Philadelphia started 2-2 in 2010, and 2-2 is likely  for this edition, with San Francisco on tap this weekend (after edging the Bengals, the 49ers are now 2-21 in road games against non-N.F.C. West competition since 2007). Philadelphia can still realize all of its hopes and dreams, but there is no way to hide the warts anymore. In both losses, the three biggest worries for the Birds took center stage:

The Eagles can give any team in the league a serious challenge. But Philadelphia doesn’t have the look of a dominant 13-3 team that’s going to take the N.F.L. by storm. The dream is still attainable — Philadelphia could get hot at the right moment, Vick could be healthy in December and January, and the right set of playoff opponents could find their way on the Eagles’ schedule. But this is a flawed team, and its struggles in short-yardage situations against the Giants looked more like frustrating Andy Reid teams from the Donovan McNabb era than any sort of dream team.

Falcons Regress to Mean

After an opening day loss in Pittsburgh, the 2010 Falcons went on a 12-1 run in which they effectively clinched the top seed. Nine times in that 13-game stretch, the Falcons entered the fourth quarter leading or trailing by less than a touchdown; Atlanta went 9-0 in those games.

Had the team gone a more reasonable 5-4, the Falcons would have been a 9-7 team on the outside looking in. Instead, good fortune brought them the conference’s best record. Through three games this season, Atlanta has been trailing by 24, 10 and 13 points entering the third quarter. If not for a Michael Vick injury in Week 2, the Falcons could be staring at an 0-3 record. Atlanta wasn’t nearly as good as its record last year, but the Falcons aren’t going to be trailing by double digits every weekend this year either. Expect something more in the middle, but hopes of a Super season in Atlanta have seemed too rosy from the start. Atlanta’s pass defense is still the team’s Achilles’ heel, while the pass offense isn’t nearly as good as many seem to think it is. Since the start of last season, the Falcons rank just 24th in net yards per pass attempt.

Dishonorable Mention

The Chargers at home against the Chiefs was supposed to be a blowout; instead, San Diego was holding its breath until the game’s final minute. A slow September start is cliche for San Diego: the last five Septembers, the Chargers have been favored in 14 of 17 games, but have a record of  8-9 while going 5-11-1 against the spread. San Diego is 2-1 but has been underwhelming in both wins.

The big worry here isn’t that “it’s happening again” but rather that the malaise has spread to the passing offense. Even during ghosts of September past, Philip Rivers was fantastic. This year, Rivers has thrown a pair of interceptions each week while his big play and efficiency numbers have dropped.

Perhaps all the team needs is a healthy Antonio Gates, but the Chargers have looked more conservative on offense this season. According to Footballguys.com, San Diego has thrown 38 percent of its passes toward running backs, compared with 28 percent in 2008 to 2010. Mike Tolbert leads the team in receptions while Ryan Mathews is second in receiving yards. This may be a reflection of a small sample size rather than a shift in philosophy, but it’s worth keeping an eye on how the Chargers stretch the field over the next few weeks. San Diego led the league in yards per pass completion in both 2009 and 2010, but rank in the bottom half of the league in that metric three weeks into the season.

Pittsburgh defeated the Colts, but only by kicking  a field goal in the final seconds. A close victory over the lowly Colts (Pittsburgh was a 10.5 point favorite) doesn’t hide the scary issues in Pittsburgh:

Four Super Bowl hopefuls — the Patriots, Jets, Eagles and Falcons — had the spotlight shine on their weaknesses this past Sunday. Two other teams escaped with wins thanks to the scheduling gods. For all six teams, this Sunday represents a chance to right the ship. New England (Oakland), the Jets (Baltimore) and Pittsburgh (Houston) will need to to fix their flaws to avoid a two-game losing streak; all go on the road against tough A.F.C. teams. The Chargers (Miami), the Eagles (San Francisco) and the Falcons (@Seattle) have a chance to show they won’t play down to their level of competition. The odds say that at least a couple of the teams scratching their heads today will be pulling out their hair a week from now.

Chase Stuart contributes to the Pro-Football-Reference.com blog and to Footballguys.com.

Belichick Series Begins on NFL Network

Who is Bill Belichick? (The Fifth Down explored that question in 2008, with readers’ help.)

We may get a better picture in a series that begins Thursday (tonight at 9 p.m.) on NFL Network.

Belichick agreed to be the only coach to be wired for sound for an entire N.F.L. season. He gave NFL Network that access in 2009. The Patriots were 10–6, won the A.F.C. East and lost to Baltimore in the playoffs. That was also the season when Belichick went for it on 4th-and-2 at Indianapolis at the Patriots’ 28 (he was criticized when the play failed and New England lost).

Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com gave the series a thumbs up:

Unless you’ve been on an NFL coaching staff, you haven’t seen an NFL coach like this before. During the 2009 season Belichick gave NFL Films access to everything — the locker room, the sideline, team meetings, discussions with Patriots owner Robert Kraft, quiet moments with Belichick’s son, everything — and the resulting documentary is quite extraordinary.

The NFL Films producer Ken Rodgers, who spent most the 2009 season working with Belichick on the project, wrote:

I could list a hundred things that surprised me about Bill Belichick – his fishing ability, his golf putter, his sense of humor, his incredible knowledge of football history, his rapport with players, his care as a father, even his choice in Halloween costumes – but you’ll see all those things and more in the film.

The thing that surprised me the most, however, is something you won’t see much of at all: sideline reactions to what just happened on the football field.

I swear, if I showed you footage of Bill Belichick after a Patriots touchdown and Bill Belichick after an opponent’s touchdown, you’d never know which one is which. By the time the referee has signaled the score, Belichick is already on to the next play, the next drive, the next situation.

That uncanny ability to control his emotions may be the side of Bill Belichick people refer to when they throw around that word “enigma.”

Extra point A spoof of the trailer for the series is already up on YouTube:

N.F.L. Free-for-All Central, Starring Kolb, Haynesworth and Rice

3:43 p.m. | Updated While mayhem was expected when the N.F.L. ended its lockout Monday and launched an instant off-season, everyone predicted the frenetic pace of player movement would resemble a swap meet for billionaires. But it would not be proper mayhem unless something really head-slapping happened. Like, say, the Patriots trading for Albert Haynesworth.

Big trade news of the day, so far:
The latest trade apparently being consummated is the one sending quarterback Kevin Kolb from the Eagles to the Cardinals in exchange for cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. This has been in the hopper for a bit, but it came true only when Kolb agreed to receive gobs of money ($63 million over five years).

But the head-slapper is still the Patriots reportedly swinging a deal with Washington to acquire the perpetually discontented Haynesworth and that sound you hear is Redskins Coach Mike Shanahan howling in joy. Haynesworth, a fabulously talented but motivationally challenged defensive tackle, spent last season as the symbol of everything wrong with the Redskins owner Dan Snyder’s approach to team building. Having given Haynesworth a $100 million contract, they had to sit by as he pouted about the team’s new defensive system and became a running joke by not only failing to pass the team’s conditioning test, but not even being able to finish it. Now, apparently Patriots Coach Bill Belichick believes his magic powers extend to extracting that talent from Haynesworth, which means he spent his lockout time building a wand strong enough to move nearly 400 pounds of self-absorbed entitlement.

Only someone as large as Haynesworth could shove a Reggie Bush trade aside for top honors. New Orleans is reportedly sealing a deal that would send Bush, its mercurial running back, to Miami. The move comes as no surprise considering Bush all but announced his own exit after the Saints drafted running back Mark Ingram, and was completed when Bush agreed to a two-year deal with the Dolphins.

Big free-agent signing news of the day, so far:

Receiver Sidney Rice is apparently such a big fan of quarterback Tarvaris Jackson he followed him all the way from Minnesota to Seattle. After agreeing to terms with Jackson on Wednesday, the Seahawks have reportedly snared Rice from the Vikings with a five-year, $41 million deal, which took a little zing out of the arrival of quarterback Donovan McNabb in a trade. The Seahawks are betting big that Rice recovers from major hip surgery and regains the form of his spectacular 2009 season, when he caught 83 passes for 1,312 yards.

Perhaps the biggest prize of the free agency carnival, former Raiders cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha, has not made a move yet, but NFL.com is reporting the Texans might be closest to nabbing him, with the Jets and 49ers trying hard as well.

The Giants re-stocked their defensive cookie jar by re-signing Mathias Kiwanuka, but are still working on the offensive side to hammer out deals to bring back players like receiver Steve Smith, running back Ahmad Bradshaw and tight end Kevin Boss.

The Eagles were thinking defense too and signed defensive end Jason Babin, who made the Pro Bowl last season with the Titans after several unspectacular seasons, including one with the Eagles.

Big other N.F.L. mayhem news of the day, so far:
Along with signings and trades, holdouts are elbowing their way into the mix of news. Receiver DeSean Jackson, who has expressed dismay over his current contract, did not show up for the Eagles’ first workouts on Thursday. Similarly, Jacksonville tight end Marcedes Lewis refused to report to a mandatory meeting Wednesday while he tries to get a new deal out of the Jaguars. They join Tennessee running back Chris Johnson, who is reportedly staging his protest over his $800,000 base salary this season.

Quarterback Kevin Kolb was also nowhere to be found at the Eagles’ workout, but that is because everyone expects his trade to the Cardinals to be finalized shortly.

Cutsville:
The Steelers bid goodbye to Antwaan Randle El, the versatile offensive threat who helped them win a Super Bowl, and veteran tackle Max Starks, who started in two Super Bowls.

N.F.L. Free-for-All Central, Starring Haynesworth and Rice

While mayhem was expected when the N.F.L. ended its lockout Monday and launched an instant off-season, everyone predicted the frenetic pace of player movement would resemble a swap meet for billionaires. But it would not be proper mayhem unless something really head-slapping happened. Like, say, the Patriots trading for Albert Haynesworth.

Big trade news of the day, so far:

Yes, the Patriots have reportedly swung a deal with Washington to acquire the perpetually discontented Haynesworth and that sound you hear is Redskins Coach Mike Shanahan howling in joy. Haynesworth, a fabulously talented but motivationally challenged defensive end, spent last season as the symbol of everything wrong with the Redskins owner Dan Snyder’s approach to team building. Having given Haynesworth a $100 million contract, they had to sit by as he pouted about the team’s new defensive system and became a running joke by not only failing to pass the team’s conditioning test, but not even being able to finish it. Now, apparently Patriots Coach Bill Belichick believes his magic powers extend to extracting that talent from Haynesworth, which means he spent his lockout time building a wand strong enough to move nearly 400 pounds of self-absorbed entitlement.

Only someone as large as Haynesworth could shove a Reggie Bush trade aside for top honors. New Orleans is reportedly sealing a deal that would send Bush, its mercurial running back, to Miami. The move comes as no surprise considering Bush all but announced his own exit after the Saints drafted running back Mark Ingram, and was completed when Bush agreed to a two-year deal with the Dolphins.

Big free-agent signing news of the day, so far:

Receiver Sidney Rice is apparently such a big fan of quarterback Tarvaris Jackson he followed him all the way from Minnesota to Seattle. After agreeing to terms with Jackson on Wednesday, the Seahawks have reportedly snared Rice with a five-year, $41 million deal, which took a little zing out of the arrival of quarterback Donovan McNabb in a trade. The Seahawks are betting big that Rice recovers from major hip surgery and regains the form of his spectacular 2009 season, when he caught 83 passes for 1,312 yards.

Big other N.F.L. mayhem news of the day, so far:
Along with signings and trades, holdouts are elbowing their way into the mix, with Jacksonville tight end Marcedes Lewis refusing to report to a mandatory meeting Wednesday. He joins Tennessee running back Chris Johnson, who is reportedly staging his protest over his $800,000 base salary this season.