The Fifth Down will track the win probability for the Jets and the Patriots throughout Sunday night’s showdown at MetLife Stadium. We did it for the first meeting between the teams in Week 5, but a quick review for those unfamiliar with the metric from Advanced NFL Stats.
Win probability measures just that — the probability that each team will win the game at any moment. This, of course, varies with the twists and turns of each game, so an early lead raises the odds a team will win, but a turnover or a big play can turn it around.
The Jets have to deal with the Patriots first, but their win probability against the Broncos on Thursday night will be an interesting talking point this week. The Broncos won at 1 p.m. on Sunday. The Jets are playing the Sunday night game, then have a short week to prepare for Tim Tebow, who earlier in the day won for the third time in four games.
Preparing for the Broncos these days is like preparing for an Oklahoma high school team; Tebow completed only two of his eight passes Sunday. But he does pose his own brand of tricky problems. And while he hasn’t exactly beaten the ’85 Bears — his three recent wins came against the Dolphins, the Raiders and the Chiefs — he has been good enough to be taken seriously.
The question is: will the Jets do that, and will the short week work against them?
The Jets takes the opening kickoff the length of the field, stall at the 6 and then see Nick Folk miss a 24-yard field goal attempt. Their win probability instantly swings from 67 percent to 48, even though the score never changed.
Two Stephen Gostkowski field goals are all that separate the teams, who offensive stats are remarkably similar.
Jamaal Westerman gets the Jets on the board with a two-run homer safety. Brady had no chance there; Westerman doesn’t get credit for the sack, since Brady got off a left-handed pass. But intentional grounding out of the end zone is an automatic safety. So now the Jets will get the ball back with a chance to turn things around before halftime.
The Jets have actually outgained the Patriots so far, and should go into the half with a two-to-one edge in time of possession if they manage this last drive right. If they manage it into points, they’ll be even happier.
Happier, certainly, than Brady (7 of 16, 129 yards) looks right now.
I realize that Brady is Brady, but he’s not Brady tonight. At least not so far.
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The Jet’s win probability surged over 50 percent for the first time since their field-goal miss when they grabbed the lead on Mark Sanchez’s 2-yard touchdown run, but Brady led the Patriots right back down the field to grab it back on an 18-yard touchdown catch by Rob Gronkowski.
Halftime: Patriots 13, Jets 9.
The Jets are down by 7 points. But it feels like more, no?
benshpigel
Yes, it does. And as I type those words, the Patriots pick off a tipped pass.
Gronkowski’s second touchdown catch extends New England’s lead to 14 points and pushes its win probability to 94 percent with four minutes left in the third quarter.
Guess the algorithm didn’t see the highlights of the Patriots’ fourth-quarter disaster against the Giants last week.
Plaxico Burress catches a 7-yard score but Deion Branch restores New England’s two-touchdown lead with an 8-yarder. It’s getting away from the Jets now; with eight minutes left, they’re entering flatline territory on the chart.
So the Patriots sweep the season series. What’s the probability these teams haven’t seen the last of each other this year? Pretty good.
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