We’re entering Year Three of what has been a top-to-bottom youth movement in Tampa Bay. So far, most would agree, it’s going better than planned. The team’s starting quarterback, running back, wide receivers, defensive ends, defensive tackles, middle linebacker and strong safety enter the season with less than three years of league experience. Yet no eyes rolled when Raheem Morris – who, at 35 on opening day, will still be the youngest head coach in the league – declared this year’s goal to be to win the N.F.C. South.
The Buccaneers were 10-6 last year. Still, Morris’s lofty ambitions of reaching the postseason fell short (in part because the N.F.L. insists that a team that wins seven games but finishes atop the worst division in history is more deserving of a postseason berth than a team that wins 10 games).
The Bucs are the N.F.L.’s version of ”The Sandlot” – watchable for blending sports and youth. Of course, this Sandlot gang faces actual major league competition. Last season, the more “major” the competition, the more callow the Bucs seemed. They were 2-5 against playoff teams, with those two victories coming in Weeks 16 and 17 against the Seahawks and the Saints, neither of whom had anything to play for at the time.
But considering that giving games away is part of most young clubs’ learning experience, it’s impressive that Tampa Bay went 8-1 against non-playoff opponents. It suggests that Morris’s players performed to their potential week in and week out.
It helps that the Bucs’ “Benny the Jet Rodriguez” plays the most important position on the field. At this albeit extremely early stage, 23-year-old quarterback Josh Freeman appears destined to become a smarter, more mature version of Ben Roethlisberger. A cog like this makes building the rest of the roster much, much easier.
Forty-year-old general manager Mark Dominik has been straightforward about his approach since right out of the gate in ’09 when he dumped a handful of veterans and sang the first lines of his now familiar song about rebuilding the franchise from the ground up. This low-cost monogamous commitment to the draft may be influenced by the well-documented financial woes of the Glazer family and poor home attendance figures brought about by an ailing Florida economy. Dominik and Morris insist it comes strictly from a desire to groom their own talent. We may never know the truth; the N.F.L.’s new salary floor does not go in effect on a team-by-team basis until 2013. By then, the Bucs hope to be using their funds for re-signing their own players.
But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. Intriguing as it is to see a young team have early success, there’s no certainty that this is indeed a 10-win quality club. Let’s face it: aberrational seasons happen. And while it’s always iffy to tie a pro team’s record to the difficulty of its schedule, one could argue that last season wasn’t about the Bucs playing up to their potential week in and week out – it was about them getting to play the Panthers twice and the two futile teams from Ohio.
So is Tampa’s youthful lineup a result of having a surplus of young talent or a shortage of veteran talent?
Offense
There’s no better embodiment of this chicken-or-egg type question than the paradox that is LeGarrette Blount. The undrafted running back from Oregon joined the team last September, cracked the starting lineup in late November and surpassed the 1,000-yard rushing mark in January. Blount was among the league leaders in various broken tackle statistics and finished the season averaging an impressive 5.0 yards per carry.
And yet, put on the tape and it’s easy to see why Blount went undrafted (no, character concerns were not the primary reason – they almost never are in the N.F.L.). A roundly built 247-pounder, Blount is far from fast. More damning is he’s not powerful. Blount can’t seem able to lower his shoulder and deliver a great blow. At times, he even stops his feet and braces for contract. His timing and vision are unrefined, and his blocking and receiving skills are poor.
Still, Blount is able to produce, mainly as a lumbering runner who’s difficult to bring down in the open field (think of a bear that’s been just shot with a tranquilizing dart). But this kind of style makes for an inconsistent rushing attack. Blount might put up yardage, but defenses have no reason to fear him. And it’s still to be determined whether such a punishing style can be sustained for an entire 16-game slate (Blount played in 13 games last season, starting seven).
The Bucs are prepared to ride the mudder because they have no other options (i.e. there’s a shortage of veteran talent). Cadillac Williams washed up last year and is now gone. The penciling of Earnest Graham’s name at fullback seems to have been written over permanent ink. Thus, the top backup is Allen Bradford, a sixth-round rookie who, at 242 pounds, figures to have a similar between-the-tackles style as Blount. Before Labor Day, expect the Bucs to acquire a third-down back. Last season, Josh Freeman completed 46 passes to Cadillac Williams, almost all of which were dumpoffs.
As Freeman develops, the dumpoff passes will become less frequent. His remarkable attributes – such as the size to shed would-be sackers, or the athleticism and arm strength to make stick throws downfield while on the move – are a reminder of Roethlisberger. But unlike Roethlisberger, Freeman seems to have a grasp for winning the down before the snap. His diagnostic acumen has improved with each start, which is equally as important as his penchant for conjuring big plays in critical situations.
A key in the passing game’s growth will be Freeman and his receivers becoming more cohesive at reading blitzes. Too often the Buccaneers get caught in five-and seven-step-drop play designs when they should be executing three-step hot routes. These are things that get fixed with experience, though if the Bucs are going to rely on two second-year starters out wide (Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn), it’s on coordinator Greg Olson and receivers coach Tim Berbenich to help accelerate the learning process.
As with Blount, there seems to be a national movement to declare Williams a star. Williams is better than his fourth-round draft status, but he doesn’t have the explosive elevation or straight-line speed of a true No. 1. The original plan was for the second-rounder Benn to become the No. 1. However, Benn struggled to grasp the system before blowing out his knee late last year. He has been able to fully partake in the start of training camp, so don’t expect hit-or-miss playmaker Michael Spurlock or the moderately shifty Sammie Stroughter (whom coaches prefer to use in the slot) to capture the other starting job. The Bucs will most likely be a little patient with Benn.
Tampa’s best receiving weapon is clearly tight end Kellen Winslow. It would be wise for Olson to make a more concerted effort at featuring the fluid, versatile eighth-year veteran. (Winslow led the team with 66 catches last season but was too often an afterthought in the game plan.)
Winslow is a willing but underwhelming blocker, which could be a problem considering that veteran backup tight end John Gilmore is gone and new fourth-round rookie tight end Luke Stocker figures to be somewhat of a project in this realm. Edge blocking assistance will be crucial on the right side, where tackle Jeremy Trueblood has seemingly made “getting beat” a form of art. The reason he’s back in the starting lineup is because the only player on the team who’s seemingly less confident happens to be his backup, James Lee. Filling in for holdout left tackle Donald Penn last season, Lee admitted to not feeling qualified to start. He backed up those words in a cameo appearance down the stretch when coaches sent Trueblood to the pine. Penn, of course, is under contract long-term this season and can handle the left side adequately. He’s a decent pass-blocker and needs to become a better run-blocker (he’s a good downhill mover for someone shaped like a workout ball).
Re-signing Davin Joseph was Dominik’s top priority this past off-season, even though the right guard uncharacteristically struggled before his season-ending foot injury. Left guard Ted Larsen has some trouble sustaining power but shows decent short-area mobility in the run game. It’s critical he get plenty of reps with gritty veteran center Jeff Faine; injuries killed the cohesion of this interior offensive line last season, which was part of the reason the Bucs were so vulnerable to fire-X and other A-gap blitzes.
Defense
Raheem Morris is willing to go after the quarterback out of Tampa Bay’s three-man sub-packages, but many of the basics in his defensive philosophy are still those of a traditional Cover 2. A Cover 2 requires generating pressure from a four-man defensive line. This explains why Dominik spent his first two draft picks in ’10 on tackles (Gerald McCoy and Brian Price) and the first two draft picks this season on ends (Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers).
The jury is still out on McCoy, though the early prognosis is “good pick.” Even while struggling to learn multiple positions last season, McCoy flashed the powerful initial quickness to justify his No. 3 overall status. His wish to work out of just one position this season has been granted, so assuming his surgically repaired left biceps holds up, he could emerge as a star. Price, on the other hand, is still a mystery after injuries, and the stellar play of nose tackle Roy Miller kept him out of the lineup for most of 2010.
Equally mysterious is Bowers, once projected as the top pick of the draft. He plummeted all the way to Pick 51 because of a knee problem. If Bowers, who figures to be a three-down end, can’t stay on the field, the Bucs will fall back (way back) on last year’s starter, Michael Bennett. There’s also third-year pro Kyle Moore, though he can’t hold ground against the run.
Because of the nature of the zone coverage techniques in a Cover 2, cornerbacks are considered part of the defensive run front. This affords the defense the option of letting runs bounce outside. But it also requires the linebackers to get to the ball quicker than in most schemes, as there’s very little time to read and react. It’s a tall order, and one the Bucs, frankly, don’t have the linebacking personnel to fill.
Outside linebacker Quincy Black has the raw speed and open-space tackling aptitude to operate in this scheme, but his smaller stature (6’2”, 240) is problematic for getting off blocks. Despite this, and a vulnerability to injuries, Black was re-signed to a five-year, $29.5 million contract over the off-season. He’ll continue to start opposite Geno Hayes, a fourth-year pro with questionable instincts.
Don’t listen to the people who express shock that middle linebacker Barrett Ruud was not re-signed. His lack of physicality and Buddhist-like willingness to just sit back and let the ballcarrier come to him were the primary reasons this run defense ranked in the bottom two for yards allowed per carry each of the past two years. There’s no guarantee that either Tyrone McKenzie, an oft-injured third-round pick of the Patriots in ’09, or Mason Foster, an out-of-position third-round pick of the Bucs this past April, will be able to fill Ruud’s old position. But any change at this spot is worth a shot.
An examination of each player’s skills might lead one to conclude that the Bucs have five linebackers in their starting lineup. But two of those linebackers – Sean Jones and Cody Grimm – are actually safeties. Both are emphatic in traffic and iffy in space, which presents the exact pluses and minuses you’d expect. At one time there were whispers about moving 36-year-old corner Ronde Barber to safety. Though he’s lost a step in man coverage, Barber is too valuable as an X-factor in the slot to play in center field. The only better blitzing cornerback in football is Charles Woodson.
In nickel, Barber will slide inside and either E.J. Biggers (who can be surprisingly effective in deep man coverage) or Myron Lewis (who was drafted in Round Three last year to hopefully become the long-term No. 2 corner) will align outside.
Shadowing the opposing team’s top receiver will be Aqib Talib, who could be facing a major suspension after his felony assault charges from an off-season shooting (the trial is set for 2012). It was initially presumed that the Bucs would cut the troubled Talib. The reason the team hasn’t is they simply don’t make enough 6’1” ball hawks with such fluid change-of-direction ability.
Special Teams
Connor Barth is an everyman kicker: accurate inside of 40 yards, hit-or-miss beyond that. Michael Koenen comes over from Atlanta to punt and share secrets about his former team. (You’ll never believe it: Matt Ryan doesn’t actually shave with Gillette Fusion in the shower!) Return specialist Michael Spurlock is capable of occasional magic but doesn’t quite have the wiggle to create his own space on punts.
Bottom Line
This young team will be better than it was a year ago because, if nothing else, of the laws of nature. But improvements may not translate into victories given the harder schedule, shortened off-season (which hurt young players most) and higher expectations.
Predicted Finish: 3rd N.F.C. South
Andy Benoit is the founder of NFLTouchdown.com and covers the N.F.L. for CBSsports.com. He can be reached at andy.benoit@NFLtouchdown.com.
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