East
With Tom Brady and a bulked-up defense, the Patriots are serving notice.
A terrifying thought: suppose Bill Belichick spent the entire lockout in his laboratory conjuring up a pass rush? That’s how it looked for parts of the Patriots’ preseason. If it holds up during the season, with the addition of Shaun Ellis, Albert Haynesworth and Andre Carter, the Patriots will hark back to their title years when, even with the presence of Tom Brady, they relied heavily on their defense.
As for Brady, he was absurd last season, throwing 36 touchdown passes and only 4 interceptions — and that was while the Patriots were exiling Randy Moss and making their offense more reliant on their superb tight ends. With Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez no longer rookies, Wes Welker free of knee issues, and Chad Ochocinco joining a revived Deion Branch, Brady could be even better. But the offensive line looked startlingly shaky in the preseason, perhaps the only cause for concern for what may be the conference’s best team. Still, it will be up to the defense to hold the leads and get the big victories that have eluded the Patriots in recent years. If they do, anything less than an appearance in the A.F.C. championship game would be a letdown.
PLAYOFF TEAMS: 1. Patriots 2. Steelers 3. Chargers 4. Colts 5. Jets 6. Ravens
WILD CARD: Ravens over Chargers, Jets over Colts
DIVISIONAL ROUND: Patriots over Ravens, Steelers over Jets
A.F.C. CHAMPIONSHIP: Patriots over Steelers
When the Jets beat the Patriots in the playoffs last season, it seemed a changing of the division guard was about to take place. Now the Jets face a more vexing proposition: are they any better than the team that has twice gone to the conference championship game, only to lose? Mark Sanchez, in his third season at quarterback, should improve. And if receiver Plaxico Burress can stay healthy and productive for an entire season — not a given even before his time in prison — he would help Sanchez, who struggles with accuracy in the red zone. But the offensive line has looked vulnerable and the Jets are still trying to develop a pass rush without blitzing. Still, even if they are close to the same old Jets — suddenly, that’s a compliment — they seem likely to earn at least another wild-card spot.
The Dolphins’ preseason began with the none-too-promising scene of fans at a practice chanting for a quarterback the team tried and failed to acquire in earshot of the current quarterback. For a franchise that also watched its owner fly cross-country to woo a coaching candidate for a job that was taken, maybe this didn’t seem unusual. Quarterback Chad Henne and Coach Tony Sparano are still with Miami, though, for better or worse. In the case of Henne, he will have an assist from the newly acquired Reggie Bush, as long as the Dolphins recognize he is not a traditional between-the-tackles runner and use him to create mismatches with defenses. That could inject some life into a somnolent offense. The defense, though, will have to carry the Dolphins again, and the unit is capable of doing it, with star players all over the field. The schedule is tough early, with games against the Patriots and the Jets. In a difficult conference, the Dolphins will probably not make the playoffs. Who knows what strangeness will ensue?
Continuity is precious in 2011, and the Bills have plenty of it. They are casting their lot with quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who nearly engineered upsets of three playoff teams last season. Most of the big contributors on defense are back too. The one big new face is Brad Smith, the multidimensional former Jets receiver/returner/quarterback, whose versatility should provide the offense with a spark and unpredictability. The other positive: the Bills have a relatively easy nondivision schedule. They should do better than their four wins last season, but it will be tough to make up ground on the Patriots or the Jets, although they could at least tie the Dolphins.
West
If their special teams cooperate, the Chargers should rule the division.
It’s rare that if a team could just get its special teams not to implode, it would probably win its division, but that is the state of the Chargers, who ended with the top-ranked offense and defense last season. They have one of the N.F.L.’s best quarterbacks in Philip Rivers, who, despite a series of injuries and holdouts to practically everyone around him last season, completed 66 percent of his passes with 30 touchdowns and only 13 interceptions. Although the defense lost its coordinator, Ron Rivera, to the head coaching job in Carolina, the system is not changing under Greg Manusky. But the special teams were almost comically awful last season, giving up four touchdowns and four blocked punts. If they merely bring their level up to competent — several of the defensive rookies will almost certainly play special teams, and the unit has a new coach, Rich Bisaccia — the Chargers are clearly the class of the division. Can Norv Turner get them beyond that, though? That seems unlikely with the Patriots and the Steelers in the way.
The Chiefs took advantage of the Chargers’ stumble last season to grab the division title, with big improvements on both sides of the ball. Charlie Weis is gone as the offensive coordinator, though, and quarterback Matt Cassel, who excelled under him early and struggled down the stretch last season, could take a step back, at least temporarily, under the new coordinator, Bill Muir. The Chiefs have a bit of talent to help Cassel, though, in running back Jamaal Charles, receiver Dwayne Bowe and tight end Tony Moeaki. Charles will probably receive a heavy workload as the Chiefs try to smooth the transition. The defense is luckier. Romeo Crennel returns as the coordinator, and this unit is loaded with young talent, particularly in the secondary. But the Chiefs have a problem. Their schedule is much more difficult than last season’s, particularly a late-season stretch in which they face the Patriots, the Steelers, the Bears, the Jets and the Packers. If they can survive that, they Chiefs will be Super Bowl contenders. More likely, even though they might be improving, it will kill their chances to win the division.
The Broncos and the Raiders are largely in the same boat: introducing new coaches and new systems with little off-season preparation, and with considerable questions at quarterback. The Broncos were prepared to trade Kyle Orton until they realized Tim Tebow was not anywhere near ready to be the starter. The preseason trashing of Tebow has been astounding in its harshness, but it seems clear that if he is to have any future as a quarterback, he is probably going to have to go elsewhere. And in Oakland, the possible quarterback of the future, Terrelle Pryor, cannot even practice for the first five weeks of the season. That probably does not say much for what fans should expect from either team. Both teams will lean heavily on the running game — step right up, Knowshon Moreno, Willis McGahee and Darren McFadden. Chalk this season up to transition and perhaps to a shot at drafting Andrew Luck.
North
Ben Roethlisberger is free of trouble, and the Steelers are loaded with talent.
The losers of Super Bowls usually don’t often fare well the next season, suffering a letdown even more acute than that of the victors. It is hard to imagine that happening to the Steelers, though, considering they were a surprise to even make it last year after quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s early-season suspension. Roethlisberger is free of that substantial burden, and the Steelers remain loaded with talent on both sides of the ball (but the offensive line has to do better keeping Roethlisberger from being smashed around), and they have the luxury of two first-round draft picks, Ziggy Hood and Cameron Heyward, waiting for a chance to step in on defense. The Steelers are so talented and enjoy such continuity in coaching that, barring a significant injury to Roethlisberger, it is hard to imagine them ceding their spot at the top of the division to the Ravens. After that, they could challenge the Patriots for supremacy of the conference again.
It is pretty clear what has to happen for the Ravens to finally pass the Steelers: the offense has to become more reliable and explosive. The receivers did quarterback Joe Flacco no favors last season, dropping passes and missing chances that torpedoed their playoff game. Enter Lee Evans, who arrived from Buffalo to be Flacco’s deep threat. Evans no longer has the top-end speed, but with Derrick Mason and Todd Heap gone, Evans will quickly become one of Flacco’s preferred targets, while Anquan Boldin works the middle of the field. Ray Rice is still a two-way threat, but the well-being of the offensive line, which brought in Bryant McKinnie midway through camp, will determine how the running game goes. With the defense almost entirely intact, the Ravens will probably make it to the playoffs again, but Flacco is 0-6 against Roethlisberger. Until the Ravens get over that hurdle, they will go no further.
The Browns — who brought in Pat Shurmur as the coach and changed offensive and defensive systems — would be in for a much rougher transition if not for two things: Colt McCoy was a pleasant surprise as a rookie and intensively studied the West Coast offense under, among others, Jon Gruden, during the lockout (too bad he doesn’t have a standout receiver to throw to, though), and the Browns have a favorable schedule, including nondivision games against other rebuilders like Tennessee, Seattle, Oakland and San Francisco. If they can manage to keep running back Peyton Hillis from wearing down, the Browns might not bottom out.
Andy Dalton, the Bengals’ rookie quarterback, is in for quite an initiation. After an obliterated off-season, Dalton is being thrown in after Carson Palmer retired when the owner Mike Brown would not trade him. Dalton and the rookie receiver A. J. Green will have growing pains, but they showed promising flashes of connection during the preseason. The Bengals’ defense is good and largely intact, although losing cornerback Johnathan Joseph is a blow. Still, if Dalton can limit mistakes, the Bengals have five winnable games to start the season. That would bring some much-needed hope for the future of a team that usually does not have much.
South
If Peyton Manning recovers from a neck injury will be a key to the Cols’ season and possibly an indication of Manning’s future.
This preview is based on the theory that Peyton Manning, who has missed only one play in his professional career to injury — a broken jaw, and he wasn’t happy about missing that one play — is likely to figure out how to get himself ready for the Colts’ opener. If Manning misses significant time because of his neck injury, though, we are going to receive the ugly answer to the question that has hung over the Colts since Manning showed up in 1998: what becomes of the franchise in his absence? One need only look at the Colts’ injury-riddled 2010 season to know how critical Manning is to their success. With him, even if he is not in top form immediately, they are at least a 10-win team. Without? Kerry Collins is a decent stopgap measure. He has had two weeks to learn an offense that Manning has mastered. The equation is simple: if Manning plays anywhere close to his normal form, the Colts win the division. If he misses several games or is unable to shake off rust for much of the season, the Colts could be in danger of losing the division and, in the stacked A.F.C., missing the playoffs.
The rest of the division watches Manning’s status, imagining that there may finally be an opening. Best positioned to take advantage if the Colts stumble are the Texans, who have seemingly been poised to make a playoff run for at least five years. Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Arian Foster make the offense potent, so it will fall to the defense — and the new coordinator Wade Phillips — to improve. Phillips has been unsuccessful as a head coach, but as a defensive coordinator, he is a wizard with the 3-4 defense. The Texans signed cornerback Johnathan Joseph to improve a laughably bad secondary, and Phillips has been using Mario Williams, who had eight and a half sacks as an end last season, as a rushing linebacker. The pieces are there — and maybe the division circumstances — for the Texans to make the playoffs for the first time.
If one eye is on Manning’s neck, the other has to be on Chris Johnson’s legs. If Johnson, a holdout until he received a new contract last week, plays to usual level, he will be an anchor in a sea of changes for the Titans, who have a new coach (Mike Munchak) and staff and a new quarterback (Matt Hasselbeck), critical in a year with no off-season work. If Johnson shows rust for an extended period? Look out. Hasselbeck is still a productive quarterback when he is healthy, and Kenny Britt is an emerging receiving threat if he can keep out of trouble. The defense will have several new starters, none of them blockbusters assured of helping a porous pass defense. It is hard to imagine that the Titans will win more than a few games unless Johnson can carry an enormous workload from the start.
The Jaguars are caught in the uneasy middle between building for the future (they traded up to take quarterback Blaine Gabbert, a clear sign they have no confidence in David Garrard) and trying to win now (an expensive haul of free agents on defense). Their owner, Wayne Weaver, has made clear he wants results now or there will be coaching changes. In a normal season, Gabbert might have been given the chance to start immediately, but that would be a tall order without off-season work, particularly because the Jaguars have not surrounded him with superb receivers. The Jaguars tried to improve a dormant pass defense with free agents, but this team seems to lack the offensive firepower necessary to keep improving and instead is headed for an overhaul.
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