East
With flashy acquisitions, the Eagles have lofty aspirations.
Vince Young’s biggest contribution this season might be bestowing an unwanted nickname, Dream Team, on the Eagles. Unwanted and unwarranted, at least for now. Their linebacking corps is a question mark, their offensive line is a work in progress, they have issues at receiver, and quarterback Michael Vick, dazzling as his play often is, usually cannot make it through a season in one piece. Still, the free-agent haul that shocked the N.F.L. and included cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha makes the Eagles the most talented team in one of the N.F.L.’s most competitive divisions. The defensive front and backfield have been significantly improved, a nice complement to the explosive offense that propelled the Eagles to the division title last season. There is little reason to think they will not win it again this season, especially because of their rivals’ shortcomings. But the Eagles’ goal with all that spending is much grander, and the real intrigue is whether a collection of extremely talented but new players can meld despite limited time together.
What a weird preseason for the Giants — so much angst over a departed tight end who caught 35 passes in 2010? — and still they would have been given a good chance of edging the Eagles. But a mind-numbing series of injuries pockmarked the defense, with cornerback Terrell Thomas (knee) lost for the season and another cornerback, the first-round draft pick Prince Amukamara (foot), unavailable for at least the first month. The Giants still have loads of talent — the defensive line is superb — and if the offense can cut down from the 42 turnovers last season, the running game, which looked powerful in the preseason, should be a threat, easing some pressure on Eli Manning and a retooled group of receivers. The schedule is favorable to the Giants’ settling their lingering issues as six of the first seven opponents missed last season’s playoffs. But in the second half, the Giants will have to get past the Patriots, the Eagles, the Saints, the Packers, the Jets and two games against the Cowboys to avoid another collapse and get into the playoffs as a wild card.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
PLAYOFF TEAMS: 1. Saints 2. Packers 3. Eagles 4. Rams 5. Falcons 6. Giants
WILD CARD: Eagles over Gaints, Falcons over Rams
DIVISIONAL ROUND: Saints over Falcons, Packers over Eagles
N.F.C. CHAMPIONSHIP: Saints over Packers
PLAYOFF TEAMS: 1. Saints 2. Packers 3. Eagles 4. Rams 5. Falcons 6. Giants
WILD CARD: Eagles over Gaints, Falcons over Rams
DIVISIONAL ROUND: Saints over Falcons, Packers over Eagles
N.F.C. CHAMPIONSHIP: Saints over Packers
While the Eagles stole all the headlines this summer, the Cowboys — the Cowboys! — flew under the radar. Their spectacular flameout last season surely contributed to that, but so did the holes on the offensive line and in the secondary. Still, Dallas has hope again because quarterback Tony Romo is back from his broken collarbone and Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten are formidable targets. The most promising news: the Cowboys have calmed down. Jason Garrett engineered a mini-turnaround when he took over as the coach in the middle of 2010, and for the first time since Bill Parcells was in place, the coach is not on the hot seat. If the weak spots solidify, the Cowboys could challenge the Giants for second in the division and a wild-card slot.
Last year, hope surrounded the Redskins with the arrival of Donovan McNabb. This year, McNabb is gone, a disastrously bad fit with the Shanahans. His likely replacement is John Beck. Uninspiring? The alternative is Rex Grossman. The Redskins will rely on the running game, which looked promising in the preseason. The defense, a mess last season as it made the transition to a 3-4, should be better with the signing of lineman Stephen Bowen. As usual, the Redskins did just enough in the off-season (they acquired running back Tim Hightower) to win a few games, and they have the fourth-easiest strength of schedule in the N.F.L. But what they really need to contend is Andrew Luck. Or just a lot of luck.
West
In a lagging division, Sam Bradford and the Rams are leading the way.
Good news, football purists. The N.F.C. West is going to field a playoff team that will not be a laughingstock. The Rams, with quarterback Sam Bradford, are a team on the rise, one that might make a playoff appearance even if it played in something other than the N.F.L. equivalent of a relegation division. In his second year, Bradford figures to improve under the new offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels (see Matt Cassel for proof of McDaniels’s skills), and with an improved group of receivers. The defense? It was 12th in points allowed under Steve Spagnuolo, a wild improvement after wallowing near the bottom of the standings, and the Rams used their first-round draft pick on end Robert Quinn. The Rams have a good mix of young, gifted players and veterans to get them through rough spots. And they might have a few. The start of the schedule is tough, including games against the Eagles, the Giants, the Ravens, the Packers and the Saints. Bradford, though, is good enough to generate an upset or two, and the division should get used to St. Louis’s contending for years.
At what point did the Cardinals realize how desperately they missed quarterback Kurt Warner last season? After cycling through Derek Anderson, Max Hall and John Skelton, Arizona acquired Kevin Kolb, which also served the purpose of pleasing Larry Fitzgerald. With those two in the fold for the next few years, and the signing of tight end Todd Heap, the Cardinals have a chance to at last approach the kind of dynamic offense Warner orchestrated, provided their suspect offensive line holds up. The Cardinals drafted cornerback Patrick Peterson in the first round, a good move because their pass rush could be anemic. Arizona has the easiest schedule and will win more than five games, but that will not be good enough to topple the Rams.
It’s too bad Jim Harbaugh could not take Andrew Luck with him from Stanford to the 49ers, but the long-suffering Alex Smith will have every opportunity — and plenty of talent around him — to secure the starting quarterback job once and for all. Harbaugh is regarded as a brilliant offensive mind, and he has plenty of tools, including Braylon Edwards and Vernon Davis. The problem is the defense. Despite having the league’s best linebacker in Patrick Willis, the 49ers struggle to get to the opposing quarterback. The departure of cornerback Nate Clements makes their pass defense even less effective. San Francisco has one of the easiest schedules in the league, but the lack of off-season work on new systems does not bode well.
The Seahawks, at 7-9 perhaps the worst team ever to make the playoffs, went backward while everybody else in the division made improvements. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is gone, replaced by Tarvaris Jackson, late of the Vikings. Jackson will not have the luxury of handing off to Adrian Peterson, and Marshawn Lynch is a poor substitute. This team needs a long-term plan at quarterback. Jim Harbaugh will cringe if Andrew Luck ends up in Seattle. He might.
North
The Packers begin their title defense as the favorites to win again.
Something to contemplate about the Packers: they made their Super Bowl run entirely on the road. Imagine what happens if they gain home-field advantage at Lambeau Field in January, as seems pretty likely considering that Green Bay is the undisputed best N.F.L. team. The Packers won the Super Bowl — and Aaron Rodgers elevated himself into the top tier of quarterbacks — despite having 15 players on injured reserve, including six opening day starters. But the Packers were preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl last season, and they will be favorites to repeat. They made few moves in free agency, which is their style. Rodgers is in the Brady/Manning class of quarterbacks, the offense has plenty of firepower (just ask the Falcons, who were scorched by a nearly perfect Rodgers in the playoffs), and the defense is superb. The killer in a season that figures to favor experienced winning teams: they play only five games against 2010 playoff teams. Complacency is the only potential stumbling block to another deep playoff run and the first repeat champion since the 2004 Patriots.
It is easy to overlook the Bears because they are in Green Bay’s shadow, but they did win this division last season. And if quarterback Jay Cutler had not injured his knee, the Bears might have gone to the Super Bowl instead. Until the social media universe started blasting Cutler for not playing on his bad leg, he had erased most doubts by throwing 16 interceptions in his first season with the coordinator Mike Martz, although he was sometimes clobbered by pass rushers. The passing game might go backward this season because Cutler’s primary target is supposed to be the Dallas exile Roy Williams and the Bears shipped tight end Greg Olsen to Carolina. The offensive line’s improvement throughout last season means Cutler should be safer and Matt Forte should be able to run the way he did in the second half of 2010. Combine that with the stellar defense (as long as Julius Peppers and Brian Urlacher are healthy), and the Bears could make the playoffs again if they survive a difficult 10-game opening stretch.
The Lions are out of the basement. In a weaker division (like the N.F.C. West), they might have a shot at contending. Instead, Detroit continues its steady improvement. The defensive line will be terrifying with Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley teamed up inside. But the next big leap for the Lions will come only when quarterback Matthew Stafford can remain healthy. With Stafford’s arm and receiver Calvin Johnson, Detroit could score plenty of points, making its pass rush even more of a threat. That could be a challenge with a suspect offensive line. But for the first time in years, the Lions will be disappointed, not resigned, if they do not make the playoffs.
The Brett Favre era has come and gone, leaving a Vikings wasteland in his wake. Donovan McNabb is a placeholder until Christian Ponder is ready, and he may not even be a good one. Receiver Sidney Rice is also gone. Running back Adrian Peterson is back, though, as is Percy Harvin, and they will have to create plenty of opportunities because the shaky offensive line figures to make McNabb’s job difficult. The defense will also have at least four new faces, and that is not good in a year with no off-season work. Two seasons removed from being a play from the Super Bowl, the Vikings are facing a rebuilding year, particularly if McNabb gives way to Ponder.
South
For the Saints, the coaches are worth watching as much as their lineups are.
The Super Bowl hangover is gone — and so is Drew Brees’s concealed knee sprain, which surely contributed to his 22 interceptions — which means the Saints should be poised for another run at a title. Some of the faces have changed — no more Jeremy Shockey or Reggie Bush — but the offense will still be a powerhouse, predicated on going for the big play. The Saints have receivers galore, but everyone is most excited to see what Coach Sean Payton comes up with for tight end Jimmy Graham, a former basketball player who caught four touchdown passes in the final three weeks of his rookie season. The defense is similarly stacked with talent, but the most important person is on the sideline: the coordinator Gregg Williams’s aggressive play-calling has become a Saints hallmark. That the team did not lose him to a head coaching job is part of the reason it is among the handful of favorites to win it all for the second time in three years. The Saints maintained their core of players and kept their key coaches. Barring another injury to Brees, it would be a surprise if they did not make a deep playoff run.
The same could be said of the Falcons, whose dramatic trade up to draft receiver Julio Jones suggests that in making the switch from a run-oriented offense to one centered on Matt Ryan’s ability, they are pulling out all the stops to win now. Ryan is capable of shouldering the load, and Jones should open up an offense that ranked 31st in the league in pass plays longer than 20 yards and discourage defenses from double-teaming Roddy White, or packing the box to stop the run. Atlanta’s defense has a core of young players — don’t let the playoff blowout by the Packers fool you. That was more a testament to Aaron Rodgers’s phenomenal play than a display of the Falcons’ significant deficiencies. We will know right away if they have done enough to make the leap from division champion to, at least, conference champion: four of the Falcons’ first five opponents were 10-6 or better last season.
You have to feel for the Buccaneers, who would probably earn at least a wild card if they played in almost any other division. In fact, they might still get a wild card. It is time to start paying attention to Tampa Bay again. This young — really, really young — team has one of the game’s rising star quarterbacks, Josh Freeman, and the N.F.L.’s youngest coach, Raheem Morris. The Bucs have youth across the board — running back, wide receiver, defensive line. Although many players are still raw and make the mistakes that prove it, they won 10 games last season and are still not yet in their primes. Here’s the problem: the Buccaneers’ schedule is tougher this season, with seven games against playoff teams, including four in their division.
How, in the name of parity, does the same team that was bad enough to get the top overall draft pick also get the toughest strength of schedule in the league? The Panthers are not as bad as their two-win season would indicate, and the smart acquisition of tight end Greg Olsen should provide a safety net for the rookie quarterback Cam Newton. Newton has a steep learning curve, made all the more treacherous by the lack of off-season activity, but he will be surrounded by powerful runners (DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart) and a defense that Coach Ron Rivera promises will be aggressive. But no team could have used those lost practices more.
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