Tebow, the Colts, the Jets: Judy Battista Answers Your Questions

Is Tim Tebow 100% responsible for his terrible performance, or are there other bigger factors to account for? (i.e., the play calling, the porous o-line etc. etc.).–Justin, Quad Cities

Good question. No quarterback – neither Joe Montana nor Joe Schmo – is ever entirely to blame (or entirely to credit) for the performance of the offense. Not for nothing does everyone say it starts upfront. Tebow has been under a lot of pressure, which is only exacerbated by the fact that he is indecisive and tends to hold the ball too long and that even when he is prepared to throw, his long throwing motion means it takes him an extra split-second to get the ball out. And it certainly doesn’t help Tebow that the Broncos traded their most reliable receiver – Brandon Lloyd – right before Tebow got his first start this season. So, this is certainly not the most favorable situation for any quarterback, least of all one who has a big learning curve of his own to master. The Broncos tried to put in more Tebow-suited plays last week (playing out of the shotgun, some read-option like he ran at Florida), but it’s not that easy to have the entire offense switch mid-season to a different offensive style. It means different blocking assignments for the linemen, different runs for the running backs, perhaps different routes for the receivers. And in the middle of the season? Again, you can’t blame Tebow for how difficult all of that is. He has plenty of his own things to overcome – most important his accuracy (which is related to inconsistent footwork) and his reading of defenses — and certainly his performances have not been encouraging so far. But it’s been only two games and plenty of other things have to improve to make this offense work – not just Tebow.

Mike Wallace has been impressing Steeler Nation this year. Great fun to watch him outrun his coverage on deep throws — except against the Patriots, where he caught seven short passes instead. Was that a function of the Patriots’ defense or the Steelers’ game plan? Will other teams be able to keep him from the deep ball going forward?–Saltwater, Durham, N.C.

Wallace’s role last Sunday was a function of how the Steelers chose to attack the Patriots and what the Patriots were determined to take away. Early, the Patriots wanted to take away the deep ball. Fine. The Steelers instead carved up the middle of the field (remember pass after pass to Heath Miller?), going on long, time-consuming drives that kept the Patriots’ offense off the field. As impressive as those quick, deep strikes to Wallace are, that wouldn’t have keep Tom Brady on the bench enough. Can other teams keep Wallace in front of them? Sure. If they are also willing to leave huge voids in the middle of the field like the Patriots did. The really jarring part of the game to me was that the Patriots got the Steelers in third and long repeatedly (nine times by my count) and the Steelers converted repeatedly (five times). If other defenses – like, say, the Ravens this Sunday — can get off the field on third down, you’d like their odds a lot better.

(Interesting note: to simulate Wallace’s speed in practice last week, the Patriots had the scout team player who was mimicking Wallace line up two yards offside.)

How impressed should we be with this year’s rookie quarterbacks (especially Cam Newton, Andy Dalton and Christian Ponder)? It’s tempting to make historical comparisons, but unlike their predecessors, these players have been running pro-style offenses since college. Of course, last year’s rookies had similar college training and arguably haven’t done as well. Is this year’s class truly special?–Peter G., Minneapolis

Pretty impressed, especially considering they had no mini-camps, OTAs, meetings, film sessions, etc. until training camps opened in late July. It’s hard to say last year’s rookies didn’t do as well – Sam Bradford was pretty great as a rookie (a change to a new offense and injuries galore don’t help this year) and I think everyone can safely agree that Tebow was drafted higher than he should have been. But back to this year – it’s inarguable that Cam Newton is special. He’s an elite player and his work with Chris Weinke during the lockout clearly got him up to speed on the playbook much more than anyone expected. Coaches raved about his work ethic as soon as he got to camp and that is showing. He terrifies defenses not just with his rocket of an arm, but his ability to run (also, he is huge – I didn’t realize that until I stood next to him a few days before the draft). Dalton is benefitting from having quick chemistry with A.J. Green but his stat line (nine TDs and seven INTs) is more typical of what you’d expect from a rookie. And we have too small a sample size on Ponder. But generally, we’re seeing more rookies make quicker impacts because college football now looks more like pro football. Nobody runs the wishbone anymore and then has to make the change to the pro style – that’s why we’re seeing more rookies starting right away.

Looking at the Colts’ collapse, does it mean that Peyton Manning was even more central to this team’s success than anyone knew? Other quarterback-dependent teams have not had the same drastic drop-off when they lost their starter for the year (e.g. the Patriots in 2008). The Colts were in the Super Bowl in 2009, then barely lost to the Jets in the playoffs last year. They’ve done well, even with major contributors injured, as long as they had Manning. Are they really this bad without him?–XA, Michigan

Short answer: yes. I wrote about this last Sunday – I think we may have underestimated how critical Manning was, which is saying something considering he’s a four time league M.V.P. No team is as dependent on the quarterback as the Colts were on Manning, though. All of their other personnel decisions were made to build the team around him. There was little running game, the offensive line was built mostly for pass protection not run-blocking, the defense was built small and fast to rush the passer, because it assumed the Colts would usually be playing with a lead – because Manning would get it – and they paid almost no attention to having a backup ready to go because Manning was an ironman. It’s a recipe for collapse if you then lose the one player you simply can’t lose.

Having said all that, I’m shocked that they are winless right now. When it was clear Manning probably wouldn’t play this season, my guess was they would win maybe four or five games. They have talent on the team – Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney, Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne. Those are players that any other team would be delighted to have on their rosters. I am stunned at how other parts of the team now seem to be regressing. Manning wasn’t playing defense or special teams – it’s not him who is out there missing tackles and botching punt coverage. Chris Polian, the Colts’ general manager, told me something early this season that really rings true: a player of Manning’s caliber covers up a lot of sins on the roster. Now we know just how bad those sins are.

Also, what’s the point of forcing linemen to wear microphones?–Justin, Quad Cities

Linemen are asked to wear microphones to enhance the sound for television broadcasts. It used to be that the member of the officiating crew who lined up right in the middle of the defense would pick up those sounds. But when he was moved to behind the offense for his own safety, that sound was lost – and networks wanted it back because they believe it enhances the viewing experience. In the ultra-paranoid world of the N.F.L., some people wonder if opposing coaches can tape the broadcasts and pick up and decipher play calls and blocking calls. But the networks pay a lot of money for rights to broadcast those games and they will figure out a way to get their sound.

Based on what you know now, which two teams are probable participants in the Super Bowl next year?–Mark Sanford, Orinda, Calif.

Thanks for giving me a chance to revise my Super Bowl picks. I think I went with Saints vs. Patriots in the season preview. That doesn’t look like the worst pick right now, although the Packers would look a lot better (I picked them to win last year, did I mention that?). Repeating at the Super Bowl is hard, and the Packers’ defense hasn’t been as formidable in the first half this season as it was last season. But I would not pick against Aaron Rodgers right now, no matter who he is facing. He is the best quarterback in the league and the Packers are the best team and there is not a close second. The Patriots’ struggling defense makes me nervous but since there is no dominant team in the A.F.C. right now, I’m not sure they can’t at least get to the Super Bowl anyway. It will just depend on who they face in the playoffs. If it’s a team with a super-elite quarterback (Steelers), the Patriots could go out early because their pass defense is a mess.The Steelers looked pretty good last Sunday and they certainly reinserted themselves into the post-season conversation. But until somebody in the A.F.C. separates themselves clearly from the pack, I wouldn’t know who to change my pick to. So to answer your question, I’d probably just stick with my preseason pick until further notice. But ask me again in a few weeks and I might feel differently.

Are the Bills for real?–Jonathan, New Jersey

Yes, I think they are (caveat: if Ryan Fitzpatrick is healthy). Again, there is no dominant A.F.C. team and with the Patriots and Jets looking vulnerable there is plenty of room for the Bills to slip in there and at least get into wild card position. They already have a victory in hand over the Patriots and they get the Jets at home this Sunday. A victory would put the Bills in a very nice spot at the midway point.

Re: Sam Borden on the yo-yoing of Ryan Perrilloux, does this ever work out well for the player? Obviously at $5,700 per week it is cheap insurance for the team. But are there example of players who have gone through this in recent years and then caught on to be regular team members?

This sounds a lot like the pro football version of the Rudy Ruettiger story at Notre Dame, but probably without as happy an ending.–Leonard, New York City

James Harrison spent plenty of time on practice squads and was let go by Baltimore before finally sticking with the Steelers. It’s turned out really nicely for him and the Steelers. It is certainly an unusual way to get to be a defensive player of the year, but it can be done.

What will it take for the Jets to move past Brian Schottenheimer? Predictably, the Jets offense will bomb this week. Will that finally prove enough? Why does an underachiever have such a hold on this organization?–kman, New York City

This question comes up at least every other week. You have to remember, Schottenheimer is calling things that he and Rex Ryan feel comfortable doing with Mark Sanchez. Does that mean they don’t have confidence in the quarterback? Perhaps. Should they have more? Maybe. I don’t know what will happen this season. But you have to think that if they fail to make the playoffs – with Sanchez not showing any appreciable signs of improvement in his third season – Ryan might consider making a change. But Ryan knows more about what Sanchez is capable of than the rest of us and he might know that Schottenheimer is being hamstrung by Sanchez as much as Sanchez is being hamstrung by Schottenheimer. One other thing: the offensive line is not as good this season as it has been in the past and the running game is clearly not the force it was or that the Ground and Pound philosophy demands. That doesn’t help a quarterback or offensive coordinator either.

How well do the Bengals match up against the Steelers and the Ravens, division rivals they have yet to play this year?–Mordecai, Brooklyn, N.Y.

What the Bengals do best is play defense, particularly against the run (they are ranked second in rushing yards allowed defense). That should be a bigger problem for the Ravens, who – if they’re playing smart – rely on Ray Rice more than the Steelers do on Rashard Mendenhall, especially because of Joe Flacco’s inconsistent performances lately. Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has had a nice season so far but welcome, rookie, to two terrifying defenses in the Steelers and the Ravens. If the Steelers can befuddle Tom Brady and take Wes Welker out of his game, they can surely handle Dalton and A.J. Green. And the Ravens merely have the top-ranked defense in the league and simply crush quarterbacks – they have 25 sacks, second in the league. The Steelers play the Bengals next Sunday in Cincinnati and then the Bengals go to Baltimore the following week. That stretch will give us a much better idea of how the Bengals stack up. But long-term, Dalton and Green give them plenty of hope for the future.

2011 Baltimore Ravens Season Preview

Andy Benoit is previewing all 33 N.F.L. teams. Next up: The Ravens.

It has been over 10 years and the Baltimore Ravens still haven’t changed. Not that we necessarily thought they should or would. But when Steve Bisciotti assumed ownership from Art Modell, there was perhaps an inkling that this defense-only organization would become a little more balanced.

That inkling became a full-fledged expectation in 2008, when General Manager Ozzie Newsome invested a first-round pick in quarterback Joe Flacco and a second-rounder in versatile running back Ray Rice. That same year, the new  coach John Harbaugh hired Cam Cameron to run his offense. Cameron had made a name for himself orchestrating San Diego’s high-flying attack from ’02-’06. The assumption was this would all shift the franchise toward a more balanced philosophy.

But here we are three years later and still yet to see that shift. It’s still middling offense, stingy defense in Baltimore. Statistically, this Raven offense has been better than those that preceded it – but not by much. And it’s gotten considerably more conservative. The ’08 Ravens ranked first in the N.F.L. in rushing attempts. The ’09 Ravens ranked seventh and the ’10 Ravens sixth. Consequently, those three teams all ranked somewhere between 24th and 30th in pass attempts.

Newsome is continuing his efforts to change this. He brought in wide receivers Anquan Boldin last year and Lee Evans this year, plus he drafted wideouts Torrey Smith and Tandon Doss. Even if the Ravens become more adroit offensively, recent history suggests they’ll still be rooted in a smashmouth style.

Smashmouth could win you a Super Bowl in the early part of this century; the Ravens themselves set that tone in 2000 and were followed by the defensive-oriented ’01 Patriots and ’02 Bucs. But lately, teams have won titles with flexible, turnover-forcing defenses and high-flying, pass-first offenses.

The Ravens have the first part of this equation. Their defense is still headlined by a Mount Rushmore of playmakers – safety Ed Reed, linebacker Ray Lewis, defensive tackle Haloti Ngata and hybrid end Terrell Suggs – and has ranked No. 3 in points allowed three straight years. But the unfulfilling playoff appearances – Baltimore was ousted in the A.F.C. title game in ’08 and divisional round each of the past two years – point to missing the offensive part of the equation.

A great defense alone can’t win a Super Bowl – only an all-time defense can. This Ravens D is loaded but, unlike the 2000 defense, it’s far from flawless. Thus, if the Ravens want to take the next step from being a consummate “good team”, they’ll have to once again improve on that other side of the ball. (You didn’t really think the storyline would be any different this year than usual, did you?)

Offense

Cam Cameron removed Joe Flacco’s training wheels last season but was still hesitant to let his young quarterback bike on all of the rugged trails. That has to change in 2011. Unlike past seasons, the change now hinges on Flacco. Before, it was a matter of Cameron agreeing to open the playbook for him. Let’s assume Flacco’s earned enough trust for that. The next step is being able to get creative working out of that playbook.

Whether it’s from audibling or post-snap improvising, elite quarterbacks are a threat to burn a defense with the big play on virtually every down; at this point, Flacco only poses this threat when Cameron specifically calls for a shot downfield.

The Ravens don’t need to be defined by a high-flying aerial assault, but they do need to know that Flacco gives them that option. That comes from his making shrewd presnap adjustments and being a comfortable enough progression passer to make improvisational plays when things break down. (With elite quarterbacks, improvising is a product of having sound fundamentals and sharp mental processing systems after the snap.)

The 26-year-old Flacco is on the right track. He’s gradually improved as a pocket passer each year. As his potency throwing to the outside attests, he has the arm strength to deliver strikes with defenders around him. Consistency between the numbers is a remaining issue that suggests he’s still not entirely comfortable reading complex coverages. But this is a glitch that can be fixed with experience and film study.

Ozzie Newsome has surrounded Flacco with the necessary weapons to continue his growth. Anquan Boldin is an archetypal possession receiver. He’ll slide into the slot in three-receiver sets and make room for speedy rookie Torrey Smith outside. Ex-Bill Lee Evans, whose statistics have never told the full story of his all-around explosiveness, is the outside starter across from Boldin. Evans offers more route variations than Derrick Mason did, but it remains to be seen if he can match the chemistry that Mason had with Flacco. At the No. 4 receiver slot, fourth-round rookie Tandon Doss is well sized and should ultimately work ahead of return specialist David Reed.

The improved speed at wideout will make defenses a little less inclined to storm Baltimore’s backfield with blitzes. Flacco is hot-or-cold against the blitz mentally but tremendous against it physically. One reason he can make effective throws with defenders around him is he’s had the luxury of playing with outstanding blitz pickup blockers like Ray Rice, Le’Ron McClain, Willis McGahee and Todd Heap. Rice, however, is the only player from this group returning in 2011. McClain’s replacement, Vonta Leach, is a fervid lead-blocker but won’t play on third down. McGahee’s replacement, Ricky Williams, is a poised veteran but not a beast in blocking. And Heap’s replacement, Ed Dickson, is a nimble receiver but someone the Ravens last year replaced in running situations with a sixth offensive lineman. Don’t be surprised if Dickson yields some reps – even first-team reps – to his fellow second-year tight end, the less tantalizing Dennis Pitta, for blocking purposes.

Blocking could become a deeper issue across the board, as some of Baltimore’s fairly talented linemen are prone to bouts of inconsistency. The most obvious example is Michael Oher, who was erratic in his technique after moving to left tackle last season. Too often Oher struggled to sustain pass-blocks late in the down. If those issues continue, the Ravens will move him back to right tackle and place their trust in soft but enormous ex-Viking Bryant McKinnie.

The originally planned 2011 starting right tackle, Oniel Cousins, spent his first three years learning the basics of football predominantly from the bench. He reportedly had a disappointing camp and, in the end, was moved to guard. That’s a much better fit. He’ll work behind Marshal Yanda, who is great at nothing but good at everything. The Ravens love Yanda enough to have given him a five-year, $32 million contract this past July. In Cousin’s right tackle spot will be either Oher or intriguing third-round rookie Jah Reid.

Left guard Ben Grubbs can be one of the league’s best if he gets more consistent as a drive-blocker in the run game. He’s now in his fifth season, so there’s no guarantee that he’ll develop much further. Sagacious center Matt Birk is the glue that holds this front together. The 35-year-old has great hands and, though more of a stone-waller than mover at this point, can still operate at the second level.

It’s critical that this line – which, by the way, no longer has proven depth now that Chris Chester is gone – generate more unified power in the run game. This deficiency was why the Ravens ranked 28th in yards per carry last season. Behind stellar blocking, a fully healthy Ray Rice is easily one of the five best ballcarriers in the game. Rice has terrific lateral agility and the sturdy low center of gravity to shake off tacklers. Backup Ricky Williams still has some initial burst and, overall, is an upgrade over McGahee. However, it remains to be seen whether the 34-year-old can match his predecessor’s proficiency in short-yardage situations.

Defense

All in all, this is the same street-fighting Ravens defense we’ve come to know over the years. It’s not as schematically variegated as it was under Rex Ryan, but new coordinator Chuck Pagano (who spent the previous three years as the secondary coach and replaces Greg Mattison, who chose to coordinate the defense at University of Michigan) figures to still be more aggressive than most, especially when it comes to blitzing with slot defensive backs and other roaming edge players.

One thing Ryan had that Pagano doesn’t was a rangy Ray Lewis. The NFL Network’s Top 100 Players series this past summer was rendered utterly irrelevant when it was revealed that the players voted Lewis as the fourth-best player in the entire league. No disrespect to the greatest inside linebacker of his era (if not all-time), but Lewis these days is only the fourth best player on his own defense. To be clear, the 36-year-old is still an upper-tier Mike ‘backer. But his effectiveness is strictly a product of near-perfect tackling and incredible awareness and instincts – no longer otherworldly athletic gifts.

Lewis’s decline is offset by having two shimmering stars in the front seven alongside him: Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs. Ngata is the most dominant defensive lineman in the sport today. He has the size and strength of an elite nose tackle and the agility of a 3-4 inside linebacker (no exaggeration). He dictates the action whether he’s anchoring on the edge, shooting the gap as a three-technique or bull-rushing head-up from the nose. This multidimensional dominance is what allows Pagano to mix his fronts.

Suggs is nearly as impressive. He’s always been the league’s best run-defending outside linebacker, both on the play side and chasing from the back side, and he’s coming off his best pass-rushing season as a pro (his 11 sacks were one below the career high he set as a rookie in ’03, but this past season he was more disruptive down-to-down than ever).

The Ravens could surround their three front stars with Joe Schmoes and still be fine. Newsome has found more than Joe Schmoes, though. Outside linebacker Jarrett Johnson is excellent at slipping blocks in traffic. He’s a versatile three-down player. Last year’s second-round pick, Sergio Kindle, could see snaps this season after missing his rookie season with a fractured skull, but don’t expect him, or third-year pro Paul Kruger (who may finally be finding his niche) to take a significant bite out of Johnson’s action anytime soon.

Inside linebacker Jameel McClain has improved his run recognition and is adequate next to Lewis. His snaps can be limited sometimes, though, as he’s often replaced in sub packages by the more athletic Tavares Gooden for coverage purposes and the faster Dannell Ellerbe for pass-rushing purposes.

Up front next to Ngata, veteran Cory Redding is a high-energy penetrator. Likely seeing more snaps in 2011 will be second-year pro Arthur Jones, a squat space-eater who can untangle from blocks with better strength than Redding. Fifth-round rookie Pernell McPhee also turned heads in camp and could warrant snaps.

Last year’s second-round pick, Terrence Cody, is being handed the starting nose tackle role vacated by cap casualty Kelly Gregg. Cody flashes superb natural ability but mechanics and professionalism could be a work in progress. Fortunately the Ravens at least have serviceable veteran Brandon McKinney to fall back on if need be.

Pagano’s aggression with his front could hinge on the degree of improvement at cornerback. It’s likely that first-round rookie Jimmy Smith and rising ex-Titans seventh-rounder Cary Williams could start in Week 1, which would give the Ravens two big, physical press players – something they’ve not had in ages. That would leave Dominique Foxworth, a highly respected leader coming off reconstructive knee surgery, competing with Lardarius Webb and Chris Carr for nickel duties. Bet on Webb to win the job. True, he’s not physical enough to blitz (which may be why the Ravens now play him outside, even though he showed encouraging signs from the slot as a rookie), and he can be vulnerable to inside patterns, but he also might be the best deep ball defending corner in the N.F.L. If Carr, who can’t stay with most receivers in man coverage without drawing a flag, wins the job, it will be because of experience and short-area zone skills.

At safety, because Ed Reed has better range than any cellphone provider and baits quarterbacks into bad throws easier than Nevin Shapiro baited Hurricane players into bad decisions, the Ravens can afford to have their strong safety play closer to the box than most teams. That’s why it’d make more sense for the big-hitting Bernard Pollard to start ahead of the fleeter Tom Zbikowski.

Special Teams

Place-kicker Billy Cundiff was reliable enough in his first two seasons as a Raven to warrant a five-year, $14.7 million contract this past off-season. At punter, how about this for a compromise: Sam Koch can continue to get away with pronouncing his last name “cook” only if he finishes in the top five in net punting for a second straight year. Otherwise, we require him to start honoring the English language’s basic principles. Lardarius Webb will handle punt returns ahead of capable options Chris Carr and Tom Zbikowski. David Reed has shown explosiveness as a kick returner.

Bottom Line

Same formula as usual: stingy defense, conservative offense, and prognosticators basing their predictions on whether Joe Flacco and the offense can take that next step. Across the board, Baltimore’s depth is a little meeker than usual, but that’s an ancillary issue.

Predicted Finish: 2nd A.F.C. North

Andy Benoit is the founder of NFLTouchdown.com and covers the N.F.L. for CBSsports.com. He can be reached at andy.benoit@NFLtouchdown.com.

Mason Chooses Jets Over Titans and Ravens

The Jets completed the dramatic refashioning of their receiving corps Saturday, signing Derrick Mason to be their third receiver with Santonio Holmes and Plaxico Burress.

Mason chose the Jets over the Tennessee Titans, where he played for the first eight seasons of his career (he still lives in Nashville), and the Baltimore Ravens, where he played the last six seasons. He is familiar with Jets Coach Rex Ryan, linebacker Bart Scott, safety Jim Leonhard and defensive lineman Trevor Pryce, from their shared days with the Ravens.

“Going from one young gun to another,” Mason wrote on his Twitter feed, referring to jumping from playing with quarterback Joe Flacco in Baltimore to Mark Sanchez with the Jets.

At 37, Mason is no longer the primary receiving threat he used to be, when he had eight 1,000-yard seasons. As recently as 2007, he caught 103 passes. But he remains consistently productive. Last season, he caught 61 passes, his lowest total since 2000. But he scored seven touchdowns, and he averaged 13.1 yards per reception.

With the departures of Jerricho Cotchery, who asked to be released, and Braylon Edwards and Brad Smith to free agency, signing Mason became imperative for the Jets. The talent in the available wide receiver pool drops off considerably with him off the market. Because of the uncertainty surrounding Burress’s return to football after more than two years out of the game and in prison, the Jets were in need an experienced receiver who could pair with Holmes if necessary. If all three are on the field together, Mason will probably play in the slot, where he still excels at running routes in traffic.

Mason’s choice came as a bit of a surprise after Ryan indicated on Friday that Mason would likely have to take less money to join the Jets and it became clear the Ravens wanted Mason to return, after cutting him in a salary-cap move last week. Mason attended the Jets’ practice on Thursday, but left without making a decision – usually a sign that the player will land elsewhere. The terms of Mason’s Jets contract were not disclosed, although it is believed to be a one-year deal.

“I would like to thank my family for supporting this difficult decision I made today!” Mason wrote on Twitter. “For 14 yrs they have been by my side and they chose to do it yet again even though this time it was hard for them!! Also I would like to thank all of Baltimore for supporting me for the last 6 Years!! U guys and gals have been my football family and I will forever appreciate that support and love!”