Week 11 Matchups: Ugly but Effective

Chargers (4-5) at Bears (6-3)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Bears by 3.5.

Lovie Smith does not get the credit he deserves. His coaching staff is filled with temperamental geniuses who have impulse control issues. The offense is loaded with divas: when Roy Williams comes across as normal, you know you are dealing with some Timothy Leary-level team chemistry. On paper, Smith’s blitzed-up take on the stodgy Cover-2 defense, built around the talents of 30-something linebackers, looks about as dangerous as a Toyota Celica with mag wheels. This is a team that strives to beat opponents with punt returns, for heaven’s sake. Yet Smith has coaxed winning records out of this collection of disparate parts and quarrelsome personalities four times in the last six years, and he currently has a team that was universally overlooked in the preseason in the thick of the wild-card race.
Norv Turner has also mixed playoff runs with .500 seasons during his Chargers tenure, but he has done so under much more favorable conditions: his division is much softer, he has an indisputable franchise quarterback and he does not have to hold the reins on assistants like Mike Martz. Turner needs everything to break right to win, and this year nothing has. The Chargers’ offensive line has been torn apart by injuries, with Marcus McNeill (neck) and Louis Vasquez (foot) unlikely to play Sunday and the All-Pro Kris Dielman (concussion) out for the year. Philip Rivers’ mysterious slump is not so mysterious when his blockers are Brandyn Dombrowski and Scott Mruczkowski and his receivers include castoffs like Patrick Crayton. Turner cannot win when his quarterback is throwing interceptions, whereas Smith is only now learning what it is like to win otherwise: that is as clear a contrast as you need between these two teams. Pick: Bears.

Eagles (3-6) at Giants (6-3)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Line: Giants by 4.5.

Andy Reid’s Traveling Cautionary Tale Tent Revival has arrived in town, and we are celebrating with a trivia quiz! Match the following Eagles Dream Teamers — a.) Nnamdi Asomugha, b.) Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, c.) Steve Smith, d.) Ronnie Brown, e.) Vince Young, f.) Jason Babin — with their unique accomplishments this season:
1.) I chase receivers with the enthusiasm of a teenager walking to the principal’s office after a food fight. 2.) My quarterback rating of 0.0 is lower than the punter’s, and I may be starting on Sunday! 3.) I line up offsides when not inexplicably covering Cardinals receivers not named Larry Fitzgerald. 4.) I am among the league leaders with nine penalties this season. 5.) I crumple untouched after catches in the open field as if the yellow television first-down line is real and made of plutonium. 6.) I throw the ball straight into the air while being tackled at the goal line.
There is also an essay: Explain how Andy Reid can simultaneously justify a 42-16 pass-run ratio when Michael Vick (questionable) has broken ribs, and grow testy when his reasoning is questioned.
The answers: 1-b, 2-e, 3-a, 4-f, 5-c, 6-d. If you need reasons why Giants General Manager Jerry Reese did not dive headfirst into the free-agent pool this off-season, here are six of them. The Reid essay has no right answer.
Standard warning: the Eagles, like poorly-constructed playground equipment, can still be dangerous. Pick: Giants.

Buccaneers (4-5) at Packers (9-0)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Packers by 14.

Like a flabby Hope Diamond, Albert Haynesworth is a fascinating, oversized trinket that brings nothing but misery to anyone foolish enough to acquire him. The Buccaneers signed Haynesworth and immediately inserted him into their defensive line; the results were 185 yards rushing allowed and a 37-9 loss. The Patriots, meanwhile, improved as soon as they rid themselves of Haynesworth. That is not scientific proof that Haynesworth is cursed, but perhaps he should be placed in the Smithsonian until there are further studies.
Aaron Rodgers has thrown just 18 incomplete passes in the last three games. One of those passes was a spike to stop the clock, three were throws out of bounds and four were dropped by open receivers. Count the drops as completions and take away the spike, and Rodgers’ completion percentage in the last three weeks is 84.7 percent. Some football stat-heads will tell you that completion percentage is a meaningless metric. That is true about 84.7 percent of the time. Pick: Packers.

Titans (5-4) at Falcons (5-4)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Falcons by 6.

Advanced statistical analysis reveals that going for it on fourth-and-1 from your own 29-yard line in overtime results in a 99.9 percent chance of a full week of second guessing. Mike Smith had probability on his side when he made his doomed decision against the Saints. He also had the league’s worst punter (Matt Bosher) facing one of the league’s best return men (Darren Sproles), so he may have feared a rare-but-traumatizing Dodge-to-DeSean punting gaffe when he made the call. Mathematicians call it the Black Swan Theory, because rookie punters can make experienced coaches wish they were watching Natalie Portman movies instead of football games.
The Titans and the Falcons are now second-place teams behind flawed, injury-plagued divisional front-runners who have byes. As compelling as this game may be, the real action is in the training and meeting rooms of the Saints and the Texans, where Sean Payton tries to cope with injuries to himself and others, and Matt Leinart acquaints himself with the children’s menu of the Texans’ playbook (“I can’t decide between the Donald Duck Zone Stretch to Arian Foster and the Andy Panda iso to Ben Tate!”) Pick: Falcons.

Bills (5-4) at Dolphins (2-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Dolphins by 2.
Having unsuccessfully game-planned for one opponent per week for most of the season, Dolphins coaches are preparing for two: the Bills on Sunday, and the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. “It’s tough because coaches can’t keep it to one game at a time,” Coach Tony Sparano said. “You can shrink it to the players. The only thing they’ll know is Buffalo and getting ready for Buffalo.” Shrink the Dolphins’ game plan too far, and it collapses into a Brandon Marshall Singularity from which only dropped passes can escape.
The Dolphins have gotten help in their back-to-back victories from an unlikely source: Reggie Bush, perpetual disappointment and current front-runner for Best Supporting Actor in a Reality Television Divorce Fiasco. “Something’s gotten into him,” tackle Vernon Carey said of Bush, who has run for 242 yards and 3 touchdowns in three weeks. Work ethic? Dignity? The realization that his name comes up more often on E! than ESPN has probably put a little spring in his step. Pick: Bills.

Cowboys (5-4) at Redskins (3-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Cowboys by 7.5.

The rookie sensation DeMarco Murray has rushed for 601 yards in the last four games, but that does not mean he has earned a starting job. Felix Jones may soon return from an ankle injury, and Cowboys Coach Jerry Jones (if he is not going to pretend otherwise then neither are we) gave conflicting reports during the week about how the carries will be divided when Felix Jones returns. “I haven’t seen enough of DeMarco,” Jones said, though he later explained that Murray would still get the bulk of the carries. That makes Felix Jones the nominal starter, an important position held by his predecessors, Julius Jones and Marion Barber. The nominal starter’s job is to not be as good as the backup, yet still lay claim to the starting role, allowing Jerry Jones to sound sagacious and quasi-mysterious when discussing his roster decisions during news conferences.
The twice-annual Cowboys-Redskins games serve the important purpose of making the Cowboys organization appear functional and sane by comparison. Pick: Cowboys.

Raiders (5-4) at Vikings (2-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Raiders by 1.

Both the Raiders rookie receiver Denarius Moore and the Vikings rookie tight end Kyle Rudolph made spectacular one-handed catches in prime-time games last week. While Rudolph has been a bright spot for the Vikings, Moore has kept the Raiders in the playoff picture by giving Carson Palmer exactly what he needs, on and off the field. “Denarius Moore doesn’t say anything,” Palmer told The San Francisco Chronicle. Having spent a year living through “The T.Ocho Show,” Palmer deserves a little therapeutic silence. Pick: Raiders.

Panthers (2-7) at Lions (6-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Lions by 7.

Lions Coach Jim Schwartz said that the 22-m.p.h. winds at Soldier Field, not a finger injury, hampered quarterback Matthew Stafford in the Lions’ 37-13 loss to the Bears. “The wind affected his actual throwing,” Schwartz said. “I don’t think it had anything to do with the actual finger.” Stafford’s virtual throwing and hypothetical finger were not affected. Schwartz also said that his team “didn’t respond well” to turnovers. Considering how often their games end in brawls, it is not clear if the Lions respond well to anything. Pick: Lions.

Jaguars (3-6) at Browns (3-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Even.

Two of the people on the following list are not on the Jaguars’ active roster. Can you spot them? The list: Guy Whimper, Leger Douzable, Julius Strangepork, John Chick, Cecil Shorts, Danny Rebus. Give up? Whimper, Douzable, Chick and Shorts are all real-life Jaguars. Rebus is a character on the new “Electric Company,” and Strangepork was the medical officer on “Pigs in Space.” Give the Jaguars credit for at least adding a little flair to their anonymity. Pick: Browns.

Bengals (6-3) at Ravens (6-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Ravens by 7.

Ray Rice carried the ball just five times in last Sunday’s loss to the Seahawks, which can only mean one thing: Andy Reid sneaked into John Harbaugh’s briefcase and fiddled with his game plans. Rice was steamed, and he did not talk to reporters after the game, explaining later that locker-room frustration “leads to disaster, leads to trouble, leads to people pointing fingers,” And disaster, trouble, and finger-pointing lead to extra-awesome game capsules! C’mon, Ray, some of us are trying to earn a living here. Pick: Ravens.

Seahawks (3-6) at Rams (2-7)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Rams by 1.5.

All four N.F.C. West teams won last week, the kind of cosmic convergence that makes you want to climb into a teepee and listen to old Yes albums until the lyrics make sense. The schedulers knew we could only take so much, so the N.F.C. West teams all face each other this week in a kind of toddler swim meet. The Rams have scored 13 points in back-to-back games, so it can be argued that their offense has found consistency, though 4 of those points came from their defense. The Seahawks are nearly unbeatable when you turn the ball over to them in the red zone three times. Pick: Rams.

Cardinals (3-6) at 49ers (8-1)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: 49ers by 9.5.

A predictable, rather sad quarterback controversy is brewing in Arizona after John Skelton’s back-to-back wins over the Rams and the Eagles. It is hard not to go through the motions on the Skelton vs. Kevin Kolb debate. Fordham bona-fides aside, Skelton is an adequate backup at best, his performance against the Rams (two safeties!) was dreadful, and the Cardinals are terrible. This is controversy as reflex, the automatic need to yell, “He provided a spark!” after even the least convincing victory by the guy off the bench. Skelton can only be successful if he faces a Juan Castillo-coached defense every week, with Larry Fitzgerald covered by linebackers and All-Pro pass rushers lined up a quarter-mile away from the quarterback. The 49ers, who actually know how to use their defensive talent, will not be as obliging as the Eagles. Pick: 49ers.

Chiefs (4-5) at Patriots (6-3)
Monday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Patriots by 15.

With Matt Cassel (hand) out indefinitely, the left-hander Tyler Palko takes over a Chiefs offense that has scored 13 points in the past two weeks. Todd Haley has reinstated his rotate-the-backfield lunacy, limiting the playing time of Jackie Battle (4.6 yards per carry) so he can find a role for Thomas Jones (2.9 yards per carry). So things are not going well for the Chiefs president, Scott Pioli, who may feel the urge to barricade himself inside his old office in Foxborough, Mass., and refuse to come out. Pick: Patriots.

Can the Packers Go Undefeated? (And Other Questions from Readers)

Judy Battista, who covers the N.F.L. for The Times, answers readers’ questions:

Six best teams in the A.F.C. right now?–zb, New York, N.Y.

Do I really have to commit to this in print (or the Internet)? I feel like this answer changes every week. Every team in the A.F.C. has at least three losses already, which means we don’t know much about who the dominant teams will be. But my six right now, in no particular order (and my answers could be different by the end of Sunday): Patriots, Steelers, Ravens, Texans, Oakland, and probably Bengals. The Jets would have been in that spot before Thursday night’s disaster.

Can the Texans retain their dominance in the A.F.C. South (and A.F.C. as a whole) without their starting quarterback at the helm?–bearTrapster, San Antonio

I don’t think we can answer this until next week, when we see how Matt Leinart looks. But certainly the Texans a few things going for them: a really good running game and a really good defense. That should help take the pressure off Leinart. They can certainly win the A.F.C. South – that’s a two-team race and the Titans have been erratic. Can they be dominant in the A.F.C.? That, I’m not sure of. If they get into high-scoring games with the Patriots or Steelers in the playoffs, for example, could Leinart keep up? Let’s wait and see. This is a tremendous opportunity for Leinart to resurrect his career.

Judy, do you think that the Jets will start looking at other possible candidates for QB as a possible alternative to Sanchez? Or are they going to keep all their eggs in his basket?–bigstevef, Grahamsville, N.Y.

No, I do not think they will look elsewhere. I think his recent play is a big, big concern – to my eye, he seems to be, at best, not improving and possibly regressing. Thursday’s performance was troubling, to say the least. He has no confidence, the coaches seem to have no confidence in him. But he has won four playoff games on the road in his first two years and they have gone to the A.F.C. Championship game twice. Yes, I know he had the benefit of a great defense and a good running game then. But to be fair, the troubles right now are not all Sanchez’s doing (although the pass that was intercepted and returned for a touchdown Thursday night – yikes!). The offensive line is definitely diminished, as is the running game.

Most of all, they have a lot invested in Sanchez. They traded up to draft him. They have paid him a lot of money. They have made him the face of the franchise – if anybody other than Rex can truly be the face of the franchise. And those playoff runs go a long way for team executives, even if Sanchez is now a significant concern. I can’t see them abandoning that after just three years.

The Packers are looking like the favorite to take the N.F.C. championship this year. Are there any other teams that look like they may be able to dethrone them?–Andrew S., NW Florida

Of course. First of all, one bad shot to Aaron Rodgers and the whole equation changes. But teams that could beat them: the Saints, because of their scoring ability; the Niners, because of their defense; the Giants, because of their pass rush. Let’s not forget, nobody thought the Patriots could be beaten in the Super Bowl three years ago.

The Eagles have landed.–Technic Ally, Toronto

With a thud.

Do you see the Jets holding onto Sanchez as their franchise quarterback? How bad would he have to be before they start searching for other options? He’s in this third season already, when can we expect to see some serious progress? Eli has improved every season and now he’s at the peak of his game, can we look at Sanchez in the same light?–Dan, Irkutsk, Russia

As I said above, I don’t see them giving up on him, considering they’ve won four playoff games on the road with him. I’m not sure you can say Eli improved every season – last year was a pretty bad year for interceptions, even though a bunch came on tipped passes. He is having an exceptional year this year, though. I’m not sure Sanchez will ever become the dominant kind of passer that Brady, Peyton Manning, Rodgers, Brees are, but he has elevated his game in the post-season the last two years and that’s a good sign. He has shown he can be a functional quarterback and when the Jets surround him with a good running game and a good defense they have proven they can go far with him.

Why the inflexibility of having flex scheduling for Sunday and Tuesday night? Can’t the league let the networks have their choice on Sunday and then allow NBC and ESPN choose from the rest for Sunday and Monday?–Waffle, Lincoln City, Ore.

I’m not sure I understand the question because there is no Tuesday night game. The idea of flex scheduling is to have the most critical games in prime time late in the season and to keep unimportant games out of prime time (for example, the Colts-Patriots game has already been moved out of prime time), while also allowing CBS and Fox to “protect” some games they don’t want to give up (like when the Giants play the Packers – that game would have been a no-brainer for NBC to take for Sunday night, but Fox “protected” it for itself). There are limits to the flexibility for a few reasons. Moving the game causes inconvenience for fans, who purchase tickets assuming they will be going to a game at the designated time, only to find out 10 days before that the time has changed. And I can’t imagine you could have games changing from Sunday to Monday or vice versa, because that creates travel chaos for teams, fans and the networks themselves on very short notice.

What’s your take on the Colts? It’s hard to believe Manning was solely responsible for lifting an otherwise atrocious team to elite status.–Mario, Brooklyn

Not that hard to believe that Manning elevated the whole enterprise, actually. Manning is an extraordinary player who has complete command of the offense and is intimately involved in putting the game plan together. The entire Colts roster was structured to enhance and exploit Manning and the passing game. They spent big on receivers, not on running backs. They didn’t have a big-time backup quarterback in place because Manning was an ironman until this season. They didn’t need a great running back, or a great run-blocking offensive line. They built a small, fast defense with the idea that they would most often be playing with a lead, so rushing the opposing passer would be paramount.

What really sent the Colts into a tailspin is that they realized very late that Manning was going to be unavailable. For most of the off-season, even when training camp started, they thought – at worst – that he might miss the first few weeks. But they only realized that he needed the third surgery a few days before the season started – not much time to find an experienced backup, nor get him ready, not make changes to the rest of the roster that could allow them to change styles of offense. They have some other talented players on the team – Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Dwight Freeney, etc. – but all of what those guys do is set up by what Manning does.

Having said all that, did I expect the Colts to be winless? No way. Worse, they have started to look non-competitive, which to me is a sign that guys who have had very little experience with losing have started to give up and are now convinced they CAN’T win.

What’s the team to beat in the A.F.C.?–Justin, Quad Cities

Honestly, who knows? Just when you think we’ve established the best team in the conference, they lose – sometimes in confounding fashion. The Steelers looked dominant when they beat the Patriots, then they gave up a last-second touchdown to the Ravens at home and the Ravens look unstoppable. Until the Ravens lose to Seattle, one of the worst teams in the entire league. And then the Patriots dominated the Jets. That would have led me to believe that the Texans were the team to beat – they have been the most consistent, have a good running game, good passing game, very good defense. Except that now their starting quarterback, Matt Schaub, is done for the season. If I had to say right now, I’d probably pick the Steelers, because they seem most balanced, have an excellent quarterback and have proven they can win close games in the playoffs. But don’t hold me to that.

Do the 49ers re-sign Alex Smith after this season?–Gopal, San Francisco

Yes, I think definitely so. Harbaugh has worked wonders for Smith and the team likes the leadership role he took during the lockout when, as a free agent, he took it upon himself to learn the offense and lead workouts with players. They have to be considered a favorite to at least make the N.F.C. Championship game right now – how do you not re-sign the quarterback, who will come a lot cheaper than most, who gets you there, and give him a regular off-season under Harbaugh’s tutelage?

Where does Matt Flynn end up next season?–Cottsb, MN

Wow. It’s early for these kinds of questions. First we have to figure out at the end of the season how many teams need quarterbacks and then you have to gauge if those teams think he is better than what they can get out of the draft. If he gets no significant playing time this season, it’s awfully hard to judge his potential beyond being a backup.

Eli Manning has always shown consistent ability in executing the no-huddle, hurry-up, two minute offense. Why don’t the Giants use this attack more often, especially when they appear flat during extended periods in games?–Vincent, New York, N.Y.

Because that is not the team the Giants want to be. In the past, when they have gone to a more pass-heavy offense, it has not worked and they knew they had to go back to running more regularly. This is part of their overall philosophy of physical football, highlighted by a stout defense. The no-huddle is a great change-up for them and Eli does seem to execute it well and I agree that I’d like to see more of it when they look flat. But the Giants have their style and they’re sticking with it.

Despite all the talk that has started about the Packers going undefeated, I think back to the Patriots’ recent undefeated season and worry that the same thing could happen to the Packers, assuming they aren’t upset earlier in the playoffs.

What do you think are their chances for going 16-0? The game I’m most concerned about is Thanksgiving Day in Detroit. Wasn’t that their only loss in 1962? And wasn’t Lombardi so mad about it that he ended the Packers’ participation in the Thanksgiving Day game?–Art Kraus, Princeton, N.J.

I certainly agree that the Lions game seems like an obvious time for a loss, but the Packers also play the Giants in December in New York, plus have another game against the Bears, although it is at Lambeau. But I think their chances are pretty good that they go 16-0 as long as Aaron Rodgers does not get hurt. The Packers have a few advantages over the Patriots if they go undefeated – first of all, since the Patriots already completed an undefeated regular season, the Packers’ run at it won’t draw as much attention. And the Patriots’ made their run at perfection in the season that began with Spygate, which really ramped up the focus and pressure on the team. By this time in 2007, many national writers – myself included – were covering every Patriots game. That won’t happen for the Packers until very late. One more thing about the playoffs: We saw what happens when a team purposely loses a game in the regular season – the Colts did that and then made it to the Super Bowl and then lost. So there is no formula yet to finish a perfect season except the one by the 1972 Dolphins.

What’s your take on the Jets’ offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer? I feel that if they replaced him and allowed Mark Sanchez to pass more their offense would be more dynamic and he would progress further than he has already. It would give him more confidence and they could then beat teams like New England. Plus their running back Greene doesn’t seem to be the answer. And how about adding Randy Moss to the mix?–smolderingbrute, New York, N.Y.

After last night, I fear that you are curled up somewhere in the fetal position. Let’s get one thing out of the mix: Randy Moss? No. You already have combustible personalities in Plaxico Burress and Santonio Holmes and you want to add Randy Moss? No, no, no. And there is a reason Moss is not on a team now – teams think he is either done, or more trouble than he’s worth at this point in his career.

Moving on: I wonder if you think they should put the ball more in Sanchez’s hands after seeing how he played last night – that interception he threw was a killer, and a terrible decision on his part. It’s pretty clear the Jets coaches don’t have much confidence in Sanchez right now, and he’s giving them plenty of reason to feel that way. Don’t forget, they went with more passing earlier in the season and that didn’t work, so they went back to Ground and Pound. I’m not defending Schottenheimer – I don’t think the Jets’ offense has shown much rhythm this season no matter what they tried. But his play-calling is also a product of a quarterback who is not progressing, and an offensive line and running game that are not anywhere near the quality of last year’s.

The basic questions: What is the take on the Q.B.R. in the football world outside of ESPN? Have there been many instances of ratings which seem wildly off base to many observers?

The Back Story:

I stumbled upon an odd contrast in the course of discussing Tim Tebow’s Q.B.R. with some other bloggers. Tebow’s Q.B.R. ranking for the Week 9 Raiders game was 21 near the bottom of active QBs, and in the Chiefs game the following week he bounced up into elite company at number 7.

In the big picture Tebow’s performance looks roughly the same in these two Broncos victories. No turnovers and a low pass completion percentage combined with some impact plays in both phases of the offense. In two games that were controlled on the ground by the Broncos offense, Tebow’s rushing in the Raiders game (13 runs for 118 yards) was approximately double what he produced the following week in Kansas City. He had one bad sack (11 yds) and more penalties (delay of game) against the Raiders.

Basically you’ve got a QB who is making a major contribution to controlling the game, directly producing over 240 yards of offense with 2 TDs and zero turnovers. He is rated near the bottom of the league with guys who are destroying their teams with picks. The next week he plays the same type of game, weaker in some respects, and he’s near the top of the league.

The more you dig into a comparison between these two games the less convincing the Q.B.R. scores become. The relative weighting of rush versus pass and big plays versus small plays all might play a role in producing some odd results. I can’t help but wonder what questionable assumptions are built into ESPN’s breakdown of plays and their probability models. Penalties played an unusually large role in the Raiders game, and that might be an interesting anomaly. Shouldn’t a QB get some credit for defensive penalties directly related to attacking the QB or the passing game?–ianicol, Colorado

I haven’t studied ESPN’s formula enough to know how they arrive at their figures, but most players dismiss quarterback ratings of all kinds – even the traditional one used by the league raise eyebrows because of its skewed results — and I’m pretty certain the Broncos wouldn’t care what his rating is. The Broncos are 4-1 since Tebow became the starter and are, incredibly, in the A.F.C. playoff mix. That’s the only ranking that matters.

Why is “spiking” the ball not considered “intentional grounding?”–SL, Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

Because of the intent, which is usually pretty clear in both cases. Spiking is meant to stop the clock in a hurry-up situation. Intentional grounding is obviously an effort to avoid losing yardage by throwing the ball away to avoid a sack.

What records do you anticipate that Aaron Rodgers will break this season? Whichever ones he wants?–95711, Appleton, Wis.

I think it depends what kinds of games the Packers are in at the end of the season and if the Packers make the decision to give him some rest before the start of the playoffs. Marino’s record for single-season passing yards (5,084) is in reach, so is Drew Brees’s record for completion percentage (70.6), and so is Tom Brady’s passing touchdowns record (50), and Peyton Manning’s for passer rating (130.7). But again, the Packers are going to clinch early and depending on whether they are motivated to try for an undefeated season (or whether that is still in play late in December), they may opt to let Rodgers rest.

If the playoffs started today, the two wildcard teams would each come from the same division, in both conferences: Baltimore and Cincinnati in the A.F.C., Detroit and Chicago in the N.F.C. What is the likelihood of three teams from the same division (the division winner and two wildcards) all making the playoffs, and has that ever happened before?–zb, New York, N.Y.

It’s not quite as rare as you’d think. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, since 2002, when the division and playoff format changes, it’s happened three times. In 2007, the N.F.C. East and the A.F.C. South both produced three playoff teams. And in 2006, the N.F.C. East did it. Not surprisingly, it happened more frequently when the NFL had five-team divisions.

What do you think the Colts should do to rebound from this year’s disaster?–LM, Elgin, S.C.

One good thing about seasons like this: they remove all the varnish from a team. I don’t expect owner Jim Irsay to remove the Polians as the top decision-makers. Jim Caldwell and the entire coaching staff might pay the price, though. Then, assuming the team has the first pick, they have to take Andrew Luck. They will then have to decide what to do about Manning. Keep him and let him mentor Luck? Trade him? Let him go completely? But aside from the massive quarterback decision, there are many, many needs that haven’t been met over the years and which have been covered up by Manning’s brilliance. The offensive line, the defense as a whole, the running game. To prepare for life after Manning, whenever that moment arrives, the Colts have to become a more balanced team. Certainly if they have Luck, they will always be pass-first, but the Colts have proven the risk of leaning too heavily on just one person.

The Colts’ off-season will be one of the most fascinating in years, from the first decision about whether to keep Caldwell and the Polians, to the quarterback quandary to the moves they make in the draft and free agency.

Week 10 Matchups: The Rivalry Everyone Is Talking About

Patriots (5-3) at Jets (5-3)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Line: Jets by 1.
The seventh annual Patriots Dynasty Deathwatch is under way. The team has lost two straight games, prompting the usual hand-wringing about eras ending and la belle époque coming to a melancholy fin. We have now endured over a half-decade of laments about how a team that routinely wins 11 to 16 games per year is not what it used to be, simultaneously criticizing Bill Belichick for his recent personnel decisions and genuflecting before the altar of his past accomplishments. No wonder otherwise sane people ardently root against this team.
The Patriots’ need to prolong their dramatic swoon to William Shatner lengths, coupled with the usual noisy Jets’ chest thumping, has turned this into the most torturously overblown rivalry in the N.F.L. Unless you are a lifelong Jets or Patriots fan, you feel you have been clamped to your seat, eyelids taped open, neck immobilized and forced to watch. It’s less a battle of two great teams (both are highly flawed this season) than a battle of attention hounds of differing styles. The Jets should win easily — the Patriots have only one starting-caliber cornerback to handle three very good Jets receivers — but “let us again bid fond farewell to the glorious Patriots” conversations that will dominate the following week make it almost not worth the trouble. Pick: Jets.

Lions (6-2) at Bears (5-3)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Bears by 2.
Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh had a private meeting with Commissioner Roger Goodell last week in which Goodell reportedly clarified the N.F.L.’s rules regarding unnecessary roughness. Suh was later seen walking down Park Avenue with his hair singed and pupils dilated, like Charlton Heston coming down from Mount Sinai in “The Ten Commandments.” Suh is now the only person on earth who understands the N.F.L.’s rules regarding unnecessary roughness. Apparently, it is not some arbitrary foul based upon a referee’s personal interpretation of unenforceable, over-legislated mandates, sometimes coaxed by convincing method writhing by the quarterback. It only appears that way to the unenlightened. Goodell should meet with all of us, one by one, until everyone understands: the guy who runs your fantasy league next week, then Brian Baldinger, then finally Michael Vick, who will learn about the exceptions that apply only to him.
The Suh summit was well timed: the Bears and the Lions combined for 26 penalties in their October meeting, a few of them caused by the exuberance of Suh’s teammates and Jay Cutler’s pro wrestling reaction to every brush on the elbow. The Bears’ offensive line has solidified since that penalty-marred mess, but if Suh spreads his message of peace to his teammates, the Bears will not benefit from the 15-yard freebies the Lions have been handing out all year. Pick: Lions.

Saints (6-3) at Falcons (5-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Even.
To motivate his team after an embarrassing loss to the Rams, Sean Payton distributed red baseball bats with “Buccaneers” written on them to his players last week. The message, according to linebacker Jo-Lonn Dunbar: “Be physical, bring the wood and hit somebody.’’ The hidden message: Payton has far too much time to think of things like this while hobbling around on crutches. Soon, he will accuse Raymond Burr of burying his wife in the flower garden. Les batons rouge worked in Louisiana, but then everything has; the Saints are 4-0 at home but 2-3 on the road.
The Falcons’ defeat of the Colts last week was so easy and dull that even the referees wanted to hurry things along. “That’s the end of the fourth quarter,” Mike Carey said at the end of the third quarter, thinking wishfully. The Falcons have regained their ability to win in methodical, uninteresting ways over the last three games, but their matchups with the Saints are usually more compelling: the last three games between the teams have been decided by a field goal. Or, as Payton now calls them, three-run home runs. Pick: Saints.

Texans (6-3) at Buccaneers (4-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Texans by 3.
Buccaneers Coach Raheem Morris sent the speedy backup quarterback Josh Johnson onto the field on third-and-4 just before halftime against the Saints while trailing, 14-0. The entire Saints defense, most of the fans and even nearby wildlife sniffed out potential Wildcat-like tomfoolery — the replay shows cornerback Jabari Greer ignoring his receiver to zero in on Johnson — and the telegraphed quarterback sweep gained just one yard. Morris shrugged off criticism of the decision at his news conference. “It didn’t work, so it was a bad idea,” he said. “If it had worked, it would have been great.” Yes, it would have been the wisest decision to give a player his first action in three weeks by making him execute a poorly-designed play that everyone knows is coming in a critical situation ever made.
The Buccaneers also signed the serial loafer Albert Haynesworth this week, just hours after he was released by the Patriots. Haynesworth is the perfect weapon against the Texans’ cut-blocking strategy. Texans blockers will dive to the ground to cut block only to find Haynesworth already there, curled up and fast asleep. Pick: Texans.

Giants (6-2) at 49ers (7-1)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: 49ers by 3 .
Remember linebackers? They were huge, angry men who stuffed running plays, sacked quarterbacks, intimidated opponents and captured the imagination of fans with their athleticism and barely-controlled aggression. The linebacker went extinct in the northeastern United States when Antonio Pierce retired, but San Francisco has a thriving colony of them. The All-Pro Patrick Willis is the one you know about, but NaVorro Bowman (71 tackles), Ahmad Brooks (five sacks), the rookie Aldon Smith (six and a half sacks off the bench) and Parys Haralson (three forced fumbles) are all making their mark. They are coached by the defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who developed the great Dome Patrol Saints linebackers of the late 1980s, and all but Smith received early-career training from Mike Singletary, who was a samurai. Their great linebacking corps is one of several reasons the Niners have become the only carnivores in the N.F.C. West petting zoo, and it gives them an advantage over the Giants when playing physical punt-and-pin football. Pick: 49ers.

Steelers (6-3) at Bengals (6-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Steelers by 3.
Seeing the Bengals atop the A.F.C. North standings, with the Steelers third, creates a feeling of dislocation; it’s the kind of thing the hero of a science fiction novel notices in the newspaper before realizing he has traveled to a parallel universe. (Look at the A.F.C. South standings and you will swear you have slipped into “A Sound of Thunder.”) The Bengals have gotten where they are by being bad at nothing, which in the N.F.L. this year counts much more than being great at anything. Offense, run defense, pass defense, special teams — the Bengals are adequate in all areas, despite their reliance on rookies like Andy Dalton and A.J. Green and injuries to key players like tight end Jermaine Gresham and linebacker Rey Maualuga. The Bengals have also gutted out close wins against welterweights like the Titans and the Bills when not snacking on the Colts or the Seahawks. They face the Steelers and the Ravens three times in the next four weeks, so the divisional standings may soon return to their Earth Prime alignment. Pick: Steelers.

Broncos (3-5) at Chiefs (4-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Chiefs by 3.
It is surprising what people find surprising these days. The Broncos unveiled a “choice option” wrinkle in their offense last week, something every 10-year-old video gamer probably installed the moment he  inserted Tim Tebow into the starting lineup and began mashing buttons. It’s a simple play — Tebow either hands off from the shotgun or keeps the ball and runs, depending on the defensive formation — and an obvious tactic for a fast quarterback, but the Raiders reacted as if they were somehow unaware of Tebow’s skill set. Defenders ignored the threat of a Tebow run, then slipped while chasing him; Raiders coordinators adjusted too late to a strategy they should have anticipated during their weekly preparation. Tebow boosters believe they have found the secret to his success: simply stick with these collegiate tactics and wait for the Lombardi Trophy to arrive. The real secret uncovered last Sunday? The Raiders’ defense is not very smart. Pick: Chiefs.

Cardinals (2-6) at Eagles (3-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Eagles by 14.
How will Philadelphia fans react to the return of Kevin Kolb, who ruled the city like a king from July 26 to Sept. 12, 2010? Will they cheer? Boo? Be too busy in the concession lines to care? Kolb will not even play: he was still in a protective boot in midweek, so John Skelton (who stayed out of trouble while the Cardinals special teams came back to beat the lowly Rams) gets another start. At least Kolb gets to hobble around on a familiar sideline. Pick: Eagles.

Titans (4-4) at Panthers (2-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Panthers by 3.
The Panthers’ first-year coach, Ron Rivera, thinks that his team incurs extra penalties because he has not yet earned a reputation around the league. “I feel as a first-year head coach you’re not getting the calls that you would like,” he said Monday. “Certain coaches do get a little more toward their way.” The fact that receiver Legedu Naanee has a habit of grabbing defenders in the open field — he has four holding penalties, four more than most wide receivers commit in a season — may have more to do with it than Rivera’s inexperience. Titans cornerback Cortland Finnegan was voted the league’s third-dirtiest player in a Sporting News player survey, behind Ndamukong Suh and James Harrison. Remember when Bugs Bunny learned that the bounty for a rabbit was just two cents and went on a crime spree, sawing Florida loose and filling the Grand Canyon? Finnegan is capable of similar deviltry Sunday, unless Naanee grabs him. Pick: Panthers.

Redskins (3-5) at Dolphins (1-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Dolphins by 3.
It’s not that the Redskins do not believe in rebuilding; it’s just that they do not know the meaning of the word. “I’m not even sure what you mean by rebuilding,” Mike Shanahan said Monday. That did not stop him from using the word to explain why he was initially reluctant to hire his son Kyle as offensive coordinator. “I’m the one who told Kyle not to come,” he said. “I said we’re going to have to rebuild this football team, starting on offense.” Oh, so the Redskins are rebuilding, or trying to. Or are they? “Now, with the draft, free agency, getting some young players playing as second-teamers, and they’re getting a chance to see what they can do,” Shanahan said. “Now if that’s what you call rebuilding, then we’re rebuilding.” In other words, communications and long-range planning in Washington have risen to their usual standards. Pick: Dolphins.

Rams (1-7) at Browns (3-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Browns by 2.
This week, the Rams force three Browns safeties, as Colt McCoy keeps getting flagged for intentional grounding in the end zone. McCoy tries to argue that Chris Ogbonnaya and Montario Hardesty are eligible receivers, not radio contest winners who wandered onto the field wearing helmets, but the referees refuse to take him seriously. Nursing a 6-0 lead, the Rams make the fatal mistake of trying to play offense. They then punt to Josh Cribbs, who eludes all 11 defenders on a 99-yard return, carrying several teammates on his shoulders into the end zone. Meanwhile, Peyton Hillis steals all of the holiday decorations from local malls and promises 200 turkeys to a local charity, only to show up late with three cans of pumpkin pie filling. Pick: Browns.

Bills (5-3) at Cowboys (4-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Cowboys by 5.
The Bills have 57,000 unsold tickets left for their three remaining home games, so they have announced a promotion called December Charge. You can get a 12 percent discount if you buy three tickets to games in December. Thermal underwear, snowshoes and St. Bernard not included. Order now, and you get tickets to imaginary Cowboys Stadium seats for the next Super Bowl. There’s another way to get a ticket to a Bills game: Twitter-block a linebacker. Kirk Morrison needed to swap Twitter handles with a young man from Saskatchewan also named Kirk Morrison, so he traded an all-expenses-paid trip to the Bills-Jets game for the name. Quick: register yourself as @AndrewLuckColts, @AndrewLuckDolphins and @AndrewLuckSeahawks to see what happens! Pick: Bills.

Jaguars (2-6) at Colts (0-9)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Jaguars by 3.
The Colts and the Jaguars have met 20 times. Peyton Manning was the Colts quarterback for 19 of those meetings. The only other quarterback to start a game for the Colts against the Jaguars was Craig Erickson in 1995: he threw just 16 passes, but two of them were touchdowns in a 41-31 victory. No word yet on whether the Colts have contacted Erickson for Sunday. Pick: Jaguars.

Ravens (6-2) at Seahawks (2-6)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Ravens by 6.
Ravens Coach John Harbaugh had a large bruise on his chin during his Monday news conference. It seems that after Baltimore’s win over the Steelers, General Manager Ozzie Newsome met Harbaugh in the tunnel and applied the kind of celebratory hug that often ends with a $20,000 fine from the commissioner’s office. Two weeks ago, Pete Carroll explained that coaches go for touchdowns when they get “hormonal”; apparently, general managers go for coaches. Joe Flacco’s last-minute comeback against the Steelers changed experts’ perceptions of him because he did exactly what he always does — throw bombs and sideline passes, get used as James Harrison’s scratching post — in a slightly different order. The Seahawks’ offensive philosophy this year is to keep their time of possession so low that nobody notices them. Pick: Ravens.

Vikings (2-6) at Packers (8-0)
Monday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Packers by 13.
In the last two games, including one against the Vikings, Aaron Rodgers has thrown seven touchdown passes and just 11 incomplete passes. When he drops back to pass, he is nearly as likely to throw a touchdown (10.9 percent chance) as an incompletion (17.6 percent), though his chance to be sacked (12.5 percent) is somewhere in between. The Vikings’ chances of winning rest with the Packers’ defense playing another messy game like last Sunday’s, in which it allowed 38 points while scoring 14. Christian Ponder led a near-comeback against the Packers three weeks ago, and it may happen again, but you cannot like the odds. Pick: Packers.

All Times Eastern. Picks do not reflect the point spread. 

Is Sanchez a Leader? And Other N.F.L. Questions

I have a two-part question about the continuing development of Mark Sanchez as both a team leader and a quarterback. Seen game by game and season by season, how do his performances compare to the development of established quarterbacks like Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, etc., and is it relevant to compare his development to theirs? Is it relevant to compare him to other younger quarterbacks like Matthew Stafford?

Also, how does one gauge whether Sanchez is the team leader that many in the news media want him to be, let alone what the Jets’ management wants him to be? Is he that leader? Is he becoming that leader?Rocky Bleier, Brooklyn

These are all imperfect comparisons, but you can eliminate a few of these guys because Sanchez started immediately as a rookie on a team built to run and play defense.

Manning, Rivers, Brees and Rodgers did not start immediately as rookies. Eli Manning started later in his rookie season. Stafford has been hurt often so we haven’t had enough complete seasons to look. Flacco and Roethlisberger started right away on teams that were built to look the way the Jets want to look: great defense, powerful running games. Roethlisberger has become one of the best quarterbacks in the league on a team that now relies heavily on the pass (see its victory over New England). Flacco is still uneven, although he is surrounded by better receivers than he was for a few years.

Would I stack Sanchez up against Roethlisberger? Absolutely not. Is he more comparable to Flacco? Yes, and Sanchez gets extra credit because he has performed well in playoff games. But Boomer Esiason said something interesting to my colleague Ben Shpigel for an article he did about Sanchez’s third year: it’s time for Sanchez to be the reason the Jets win games, rather than the reason they don’t lose. That’s a substantial difference — is there any doubt Rodgers or Brees is the reason his team wins so much? But Sanchez seems to be trapped in the role of game manager. And the fact that the Jets, after their recent losses, have shifted back to the ground-and-pound offensive style suggests they still don’t think he can hoist the team on his back and lead the way.

As for whether he’s a team leader, that’s a process that usually takes place out of sight of reporters and fans. Can he take control of the locker room if need be? I’m not sure about that. In the recent losing streak there was plenty of sniping from Santonio Holmes aimed at Sanchez. In the end, leadership comes from winning, though. That’s the conundrum the Broncos face with Tim Tebow — people talk about his great leadership ability, but in the N.F.L. you cannot be a great leader if you don’t deliver on the field. Sanchez has to deliver — really win games when it’s all in his hands — to be considered a great leader.

Say the Colts end up with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 draft. Will they take Andrew Luck, or trade for multiple picks, draft another quarterback (to sit behind Peyton Manning for a couple of seasons) and a couple of other players to shore up the team for next year?
Justin, Quad Cities

You are asking what is going to be the question of the off-season, assuming the Colts continue in their nosedive (which I think they will). If they have the first pick, I think they will draft Luck. I don’t see how they can pass on him, or trade the pick. Most scouts and personnel executives believe he is the best prospect at least since Manning, and perhaps since John Elway. If you happen to be one of those people, you cannot pass on him. On top of that, Manning’s health remains in question — and it’s unclear at what point his health will be clarified. The Colts have to pay a huge bonus to him in March, so they will have to know with some certainty then what his future will be. But even the best situation for him is that he’s a 35-year-old quarterback coming off three neck surgeries in less than two years. That’s not good. So to me, the first question is do they pay Manning that bonus in March? If they do, the month leading up to the draft will be fascinating. Will Manning be willing to tutor Luck? Will teams offer the farm to get that first pick from the Colts? Would there be a temptation by the Colts to make a trade to load up to try to win a few more Super Bowls while Manning is still playing?

And don’t forget the unasked question: who is making these decisions? The first thing that has to happen in Indianapolis is that the owner Jim Irsay has to decide whether to retain Coach Jim Caldwell and Bill and Chris Polian. Nothing is guaranteed after a season like this.

Halfway through Mark Sanchez’s third season it’s time to ask: Do the Jets have a legitimate franchise quarterback in him? Also, how do you like the Jets’ chances against the Patriots this weekend?
Jacob, North Shore, Mass.

I probably mostly answered your Sanchez question above. The phrase “franchise quarterback” suggests to me someone who can consistently carry the team, and I don’t think Sanchez is there yet. He is being paid and certainly is being marketed as the franchise quarterback, and his draft position means he has to be that. Here’s an indicator: the obvious thing to do against the Patriots’ poor pass defense would be to put the game in Sanchez’s hands — the way the Steelers did with Roethlisberger. Will they do it? And will they be successful? If they insist on running, they are not attacking the weakest part of the Patriots. Now is as good a time as any for the Jets to get their franchise quarterback a signature victory.

I do like the Jets’ chances. The Patriots have not lost three in a row since 2002, but their defense is a major problem — if, as noted above, the Jets can exploit the pass defense — and that forces Tom Brady to be practically perfect to win. He has not been perfect several times this year, and in the first half last week he looked as inaccurate as he has in a long time.

Peter King of Sports Illustrated wrote that the Packers should be worried about their defense. They’ve made it this far, he acknowledges, but whether they can repeat as Super Bowl champions at the rate their defense is playing is problematic. The Packers insist they have only a few corrections to make. Is King right? How worried should the Packers and their fans be?
A.B.G., Chicago

I agree with Peter — it’s time to get a tiny bit concerned, despite the Packers’ record. They have made it this far undefeated because Aaron Rodgers is playing out of his mind, certainly the best quarterback play in the league now and arguably the best we’ve seen in quite a few years. But when they say all the defensive problems are correctible — O.K., it’s time to make the corrections and stop letting teams score so many points. If Rodgers stays healthy, there isn’t much question they should be able to score in crazy bunches. But in the playoffs they will probably face a team like the Niners, who have a good defense, and the Saints, who can also score almost at will. For example, we’ve seen how vulnerable the Chargers have been against other teams, but they went toe to toe with the Packers on offense. Suppose Rodgers has a bad day — it’s conceivable, even Tom Brady has had them this year. Inevitably in the playoffs, games get tighter and despite the tilt of the league to passing, teams that have good defenses go further. So yeah, if you’re a Packers fan, you might start to be worried about the defense. Of course, last year at this time, it was hard to imagine the Packers would even get to the playoffs and the offense really started to take off in the playoffs, so there is still plenty of time. If they improve in the next few weeks, though, buy your tickets to Indianapolis.

I’ve followed Joe Flacco and the Ravens closely over the past three years. Do you share my impression that Flacco has grown into a prime (let’s forget about “elite”) quarterback now that he has high-quality receivers?Wilgar, Washington, D.C.

I think Flacco was always a prime quarterback (if we assume that there is a handful of “elite” quarterbacks like Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, etc., and then a group behind that group, I’d put Flacco in the second group) and yes, he is obviously being helped by the fleet of receivers he has now. That has been a shortcoming of the Ravens for a few years — they have not been able to stretch the field because of it. Flacco has a strong arm and having a guy like Torrey Smith able to run past everyone takes advantage of that and also forces defenses to back off Ray Rice. What you want now is to see Flacco be more consistent week in and week out. No more of those weird flops against Jacksonville. And you certainly want to see a better completion percentage than the 54.7 percent he is at now (that would be a career low, more than 5 points below his rookie year). He’s on a pace for the first 4,000-yard season of his career, though.

Is there something about Michael Vick’s playing style or preparation that is responsible for his inconsistency from one game to the next? Or is it largely because of his teammates, the offensive scheme, and/or opposing defenses? Does his long absence from the game play a role, or has he always played this way?Matt, Palo Alto, Calif.

Vick has always played this way. Since he has been in Philadelphia, he has actually been more disciplined than he was in Atlanta. He stays in the pocket more, rather than taking off and running. He is a dynamic player and you don’t want to harness that too much or you take away what scares defenses: his ability to take off. The inconsistency of the Eagles this year has plenty of roots but here’s a big one: the offensive line has been a work in progress and no quarterback, not Aaron Rodgers and not Michael Vick, can look good if the offensive line looks bad. Worth noting though: Vick is completing 62 percent of his passes this season. Last year he was at 62.6. Those are the only two seasons of his career above 56.4 percent, which was his high water mark in Atlanta. The alarming thing about this season is that his interceptions are soaring. He has nine already, after just six last year, and he has never had more than 13.

How does the N.F.L. decide how to fine a player for what it determines to be an illegal hit? Does the N.F.L. explain each situation in detail so fans can understand the logic? Ryan Clark obviously disagrees with the $40,000 fine he just received. Clark and Coach Mike Tomlin have described the details of how Clark tackled the receiver and they are openly stating the hit was legal. Again, does the N.F.L. have an obligation to describe its rationale?Eric Conrad, Canton, Mich.

Several members of the league office, including Ray Anderson, who is in charge of all football operations, and Merton Hanks, who works for Anderson, look at the film of each play and each game. They are aware that some plays need special scrutiny. They have every camera angle imaginable available to them. Then they determine the fine. The severity of the fine is often based on past transgressions (think of James Harrison’s escalating fines last year). I don’t think the N.F.L. has a particular obligation to explain its thinking to fans. It does have an obligation to explain what it sees that is problematic to players because the whole point is to eliminate dangerous hits. If there is a genuine disagreement among Clark, Tomlin and the league office about what constitutes an acceptable hit, I suspect there will be communication among them at some point to explain what they want Clark to do differently.

If a pro football player signs a five-year contract but the team can cut him without pay two days, or weeks, later, why would he sign the contract?Evinkeefe, Larchmont. N.Y.

What other choice does he have? The contract usually comes with a signing bonus, which is the only guaranteed money available to players. But this is how the N.F.L. has always worked — no guaranteed contracts because of the high injury rate and relatively short careers. It certainly gives the team more power, but that is why you see players and their agents fighting so hard for the bonus money.

The uniforms increasingly drive me crazy, with pants looking more like bicycle shorts as they creep up the thigh. I thought the N.F.L. was notorious for protecting the uniform? I thought I read somewhere that knee pads would be mandatory. Was I dreaming?A. Greenberg, New York

The N.F.L. wants to make more pads mandatory (thigh pads, knee pads), but players have resisted. They think, correctly or not, that it slows them down. Additional padding was not mandated in the new collective bargaining agreement, so don’t hold your breath for players to don more armor voluntarily — even linemen prefer to wear smaller pads because they are lighter.

Week 10 in Fantasy Football: Favorable and Unfavorable Matchups

Jason and Justin Sablich are here to help you with your fantasy football team. The Sablich brothers will provide fantasy football advice throughout the season on this blog and on Twitter (@5thDownFantasy).

If you submit one of the 50 most accurate responses this week, you can win a prize from FantasyPros.com.

The Seattle Seahawks unleashed “Beast Mode” last week against Dallas and Marshawn Lynch (SEA) owners benefited as the running back trounced the Cowboys for 135 yards and a score, the third-highest fantasy total among RBs in Week 9. The performance prompted Ravens Coach John Harbaugh to say that Lynch is “definitely a top 2 or 3 running back in the National Football League.” Was that the same Marshawn Lynch who ran for just 24 yards on 16 carries a week earlier against the Bengals? Let’s not get too carried away here. Lynch has been way too inconsistent to be considered a top-rate fantasy running back going forward and he is among our unfavorable matchup picks in Week 10 against Baltimore’s third-ranked run defense.

View our Week 10 rankings here.

Favorable/Unfavorable Quarterback Matchups

Favorable

Mark Sanchez (NYJ) vs. NE —  The Patriots rank dead last in pass defense and have yielded consecutive 20-point, 2-touchdown games over the last two weeks to Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. Sanchez tossed two touchdowns in his first meeting with New England this year, and his offense has improved considerably since then.

Matt Cassel (KC) vs. DEN — Starting this guy would require a forgiving short-term memory, but in Cassel’s defense, he really didn’t have much time to throw the ball against Miami. Be forewarned that Denver’s pass rushing duo of Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil appear to be finally clicking, with 2 sacks and 5 hits on Carson Palmer last week. But Palmer still managed to throw for 322 yards and 3 TDs, and nobody is allowing more fantasy points to quarterbacks this year, so the matchup is there if you believe he can bounce back.

Joe Flacco (BAL) vs. SEA — Flacco’s surprisingly solid 300-yard game against the Steelers’ elite pass defense marks the fourth time he’s reached that mark this season. A good game from this inconsistent quarterback might not be so shocking this week, as the Seahawks have allowed 4 TDs and 19.5 fantasy points a game to quarterbacks over the last two weeks.

Christian Ponder (MIN) vs. GB — It seems like Green Bay is always involved in a shootout and opposing quarterbacks have benefited, with a 22-point fantasy average this season. Ponder racked up 19 fantasy points against the Packers in Week 7, throwing for 219 yards and two touchdowns.

Unfavorable

Josh Freeman (TB) vs. HOU — Freeman has been hard to count on in a good matchup, let alone a bad one, and the Texans represent the latter, yielding the fourth fewest points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Drew Brees has been the only one to surpass the 20-point mark against this unit, and Houston hasn’t allowed a multiple TD day to the position since Week 5 (Jason Campbell).

Tom Brady (NE) vs. NYJ — Sit Tom Brady this week? Maybe if you have Eli Manning on your bench. The Jets are the worst matchup a quarterback can have this season. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging just eight fantasy points a game. Brady has been interception-prone as well of late, throwing five of them in his last three games.

Jay Cutler (CHI) vs. DET — Cutler produced a solid stat line in the Bears’ upset win over the Eagles Monday night (208 yards, 2 TDs), and his offensive line didn’t allow a sack for the first time this season. But we still feel Cutler is best suited for QB2 duty this week. The Lions are yielding just 13 points a game to the position, and Cutler was nothing special in his first meeting with Detroit (16 fantasy points).

Andy Dalton (CIN) vs. PIT — Three touchdown passes on a tough Titans secondary was mighty impressive last weekend, but he’s still a risky start against a tougher Steelers secondary allowing just 14 fantasy points a week through the air.

Favorable/Unfavorable Running Back Matchups

Favorable

Ben Tate (HOU) vs. TB — After racking up 115 yards on 12 carries against the Browns, Tate has proved he can be a viable fantasy option despite a limited workload. Tampa Bay allows the fourth-most fantasy points to the position and will be further hurting with the loss of DT Gerald McCoy for the rest of the season. Tate is a solid flex play this weekend.

Mike Tolbert (SD) vs. OAK — The Raiders are fresh off a 168 yard beat-down from a banged up Willis McGahee and have allowed the third-highest fantasy average to running backs this season. Ryan Mathews is expected to return for Thursday’s game, but the Chargers could initially choose to go easy on his workload after a solid Week 9 outing from Tolbert against the Packers (83 yards, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 59 yards).

Chris Johnson (TEN) vs. CAR — Johnson showed signs of life in Week 9, posting his highest YPG (4.6) of the season against a tough Cincinnati run defense. But with just 9 yards on 5 carries in the second half, it would be premature to say the tide is turning. It would be a good idea to keep him active, however, as no one allows more fantasy points to running backs than the Panthers.

Steven Jackson (STL) vs. CLE — Jackson is looking for his third consecutive 100-yard game this weekend, and with the Browns on the menu, odds are looking good. Cleveland’s 30th ranked run defense has allowed three 100-yard rushers in just two weeks (Foster, Tate, and Gore), and has allowed running backs to reach that mark six times in eight games this season.

Unfavorable

Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) vs. CIN — A fourth-quarter touchdown saved owners from another mediocre outing, and with just 13 carries in each of his last 3 games, he’s likely going to need to reach pay dirt again in order to be a worthwhile start against the N.F.L’s second-ranked run defense (3.3 yards a carry).

LeGarrette Blount (TB) vs. HOU — The Texans’ fourth-ranked run defense is holding opposing running games to a 91-yard average, but the bigger question may be how many attempts Blount actually sees this week. The Texans lead the N.F.L. in time of possession, thanks to their elite running game, and Blount has averaged just 11.5 carries over his last two games. Similar power backs such as Rashard Mendenhall and Daniel Thomas have been held out of the end zone against Houston, and have managed just an 8-point fantasy average.

Ahmad Bradshaw/Brandon Jacobs (NYG) vs. SF — At this point, nobody is sure if Bradshaw will suit up this week after missing Wednesday’s practice, but neither back will be a good option against the N.F.L.’s best run-stopping unit (70 YPG, 0 TD).

Favorable/Unfavorable Wide Receiver Matchups

Favorable

Laurent Robinson (DAL) vs. BUF — Tony Romo has recently taken a liking to Robinson, even when Miles Austin was on the playing field, as the two have paired up for 135 yards and two touchdowns on 13 targets over the last two games. With Austin expected to miss the next 2-4 games, and the Bills allowing 22 fantasy points a game to opposing pass-catchers, the arrow is pointing straight up.

DeSean Jackson (PHI) vs. ARZ — ”Decoy” Jackson continues to blame defensive game plans for his lack of production, which might have worked three weeks ago, but it’s starting to get old. No excuses this week, as the Cardinals ‘suspect secondary has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to receivers this season.

Steve Breaston (KC) vs. DEN — Breaston is coming off his best game of the season vs. Miami (7 rec., 115 yards) and has an outstanding matchup this week. Opposing teams’ secondary wideouts have tallied an 11.8 fantasy average over the course of eight games against the Broncos, who are considered the best matchup a receiver can have.

Anquan Boldin (BAL) vs. SEA — Boldin was targeted a team-high 11 times in the Ravens’ big win Sunday night and he managed to haul in 7 of those for 88 yards, a respectable outing considering what he was up against. Seattle has allowed opposing team’s number one receivers an average of 8.6 fantasy points this season, so a similar if not better stat line from Boldin could be expected in Week 10, making him a rock-solid WR2 this week.

Unfavorable

A.J. Green (CIN) vs. PIT — Pittsburgh’s Ike Taylor will present the biggest challenge the rookie has faced all season. Teams’ No. 1 receivers are averaging a measly 5 fantasy points through nine games against him, including the likes of Wes Welker, Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson.

Larry Fitzgerald (ARZ) vs. PHI — No. 1 receivers average a minuscule 3.3 fantasy points in eight games played against the Eagles, and he’ll most likely be catching passes from John Skelton again.

Nate Washington (TEN) vs. CAR — Washington is banged up with a hip injury but is still expected to play. That doesn’t mean you have to start him, especially since Carolina is allowing the fourth-fewest points to the position this season.

Brandon Lloyd (STL) vs. CLE — Mark Clayton is returning this week to steal some targets, and his matchup with Cleveland ranks in as the worst one a receiver can have this season.

Favorable/Unfavorable Tight End Matchups

Favorable

Greg Olsen vs. TEN — He had his best game of the season prior to Week 8’s bye and he could pick up where he left off, considering the Titans have given up the fourth-most points to the position this season.

Unfavorable

Rob Gronkowski (NE) vs. NYJ — Gronk managed just 3 fantasy points in Week 5 against the Jets, and New York is holding the position to a 6.7 fantasy average, which is considered the sixth-worst tight end matchup in fake football land.

Favorable/Unfavorable Defense/Special Teams Matchups

Favorable

Eagles vs. Arizona, Lions vs. Chicago, Chargers vs. Oakland, Texans vs. Tampa Bay, Cowboys vs. Buffalo

Unfavorable

Saints vs. Atlanta, Bears vs. Detroit, Bengals vs. Pittsburgh, Titans vs. Carolina, Falcons vs. New Orleans

 

This post has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: November 10, 2011

An earlier version of this article misstated Christian Ponder's team as Indianapolis.

Got N.F.L. Questions? Battista Has Answers

Are the Philadelphia Eagles really on track? How shaky is the Patriots’ defense? Why are the Ravens such a puzzle? Judy Battista, The Times’s N.F.L. reporter, will again answer selected questions from readers this week. Use the comment field below to ask your questions, and the answers will appear on The Fifth Down on Friday.

Calling for Questions About the N.F.L.

What can Broncos fans expect from Tim Tebow this week? Did the Carson Palmer trade turn the Raiders into Super Bowl contenders, or did they get fleeced by the Bengals? Judy Battista, the N.F.L. reporter for The New York Times, will again answer selected questions from readers of the Fifth Down. Submit your questions in the comments section here, and Judy’s answers will appear on the blog on Friday.

A Q&A With Jerry Glanville

The N.F.L. League is back in business, and its 30 coaches are scrambling to cram months of preparation into a couple of weeks. There are some underemployed football coaches out there, but Jerry Glanville, though idle, had the pedal to the metal in the hills of north Georgia.

“Can you hear me?” Glanville said by cellphone, yelling to be heard over the snarling engine of his 1984 Thunderbird. “I’m driving around the mountains. If I lose you, call right back. I have to go drop this car off and pick up another.”

Glanville’s career has been a wild ride. In a bit more than eight seasons as an N.F.L. head coach, his record was 63-73. He endorsed an aggressive style of play and was known for his candor. He left the N.F.L. in 1993 and became a television commentator while pursuing a career racing trucks and cars in Nascar.

“I think when I ran for Rookie of the Year, I was 54, and Jeff Gordon was 18 at the same time, and I was battling him!” he said. “Now that’s fun!”

Glanville, 69, spent the last five years coaching college football, first as defensive coordinator at Hawaii, then as the coach at Portland State. In March, Glanville was hired as the coach and general manager of the Hartford Colonials in the nascent United Football League. Last week, the U.F.L. announced it was delaying the start of the season until mid-September to address financial issues. Glanville returned to his home in Georgia to wait for the season to begin.

How has the U.F.L. postponing the start of its season affected you?

I’m funny, because you can disappoint me but not discourage me. So I’m disappointed, but I’m not discouraged. I hope it all works out.

When the U.F.L. hired you, you said you might have the best job in America.

I think it’s a throwback to 1974, when I was with Detroit. The players aren’t spoiled, everybody’s together. We screwed the game up with bonuses based on nothing having to do with team wins. In the U.F.L., you don’t have any of that. The No. 1 goal? Win the game. What a concept that is, huh? You’re gonna hear a lot of racket, I’m trying to start up one of my racecars. You don’t care, do you?

No, that’s fine.

[Sound of an engine cranking, not turning over] They don’t like to start. [Sound of an engine cranking, not turning over.] Wow, got some power, huh? [Sound of engine cranking, this time roaring to life; Glanville screams over the noise.] That’s what I’m talking about! I’m gonna back out of the garage. It’s a drag car that I run. It’s an ‘84 Thunderbird, with a 351 Cleveland. Whoo baby! You think I’m crazy, don’t you? But the reason I said I thought I had the best job is, we have a great owner. And the owner wants me to coach the football team. There’s no politics, which I was never any good at. There’s no kissing butt. You like the sound of the car?

It sounds good on my cellphone.

You got 525 horsepower, 555 pounds of torque. It’s awesome.

Was your racing career dangerous?

Yeah, you get in accidents every other year or so, get knocked around a little bit. I got burned up, got caught in a fire, got skin grafts. Everybody said, “Oh, after that fire, you’ll never drive the same.” The greatest thing is they did a skin graft — on my right arm, from my shoulder to my elbow, all the skin is from my right leg. But the way the skin graft came out, the skin graft looks like the state of Texas. And I look at that and I think, How sweet is that? I got the state of Texas on my arm! It’s kind of funny, a guy called me and he goes, “How does that affect you, now that you’ve got your legs up on your arms?” I go, “I get down on all fours, I can run like a horse. I’m faster than ever!”

There was a story that when you were coaching in the N.F.L., you would leave tickets for Elvis before every game. Was that true?

Don’t screw up a good story with facts. We were playing the New England Patriots in a spring game. June Jones and I were riding to work in a pickup truck, and on the radio they said Elvis was spotted at a Burger King in Michigan. And June says, “Isn’t the halftime show dedicated to Elvis at our game?” I said, “Yeah.” He goes, “Well hell, we ought to leave him a ticket.” So we left him a ticket. Now if you get on the Internet, you’ll see that I left him a ticket for every game I coached in Atlanta. We never left a ticket for anyone in Atlanta, ever. But why ruin that story?

Do you ever Google yourself?

I used to have a thing on my computer, you could type in a “Jerry Glanville” alert. So if somebody wrote something new, it would pop up. And I was at home the whole time. It would give me three one day, two the next day, then seven. I’d go, “You gotta be kidding.” One I got mad at. They had a deal, they were voting whether I was alive or not. I voted five times that I was alive. And then I figured out, hell, I might as well vote I’m dead.

Which side won?

You know, I was afraid to go back and see.

Why did you return to coaching?

I went to Iraq on an N.F.L. alumni thing, and I talked to all these 19-year-old kids, and they said, “You gotta come back and coach.” I said, “You know what? If I get home after this frickin’ trip, I’m gonna coach.” And I’ve been coaching ever since. I have a good friend, Waylon Jennings, who got sick. He said, “Jerry Glanville, don’t you dare die with the music inside you.” I’m a teacher. It doesn’t matter where you coach, it doesn’t matter if you’re in college. If you see a kid get better, you’ve had a hell of a day.

Do you want to get back to the N.F.L.?

I don’t want to go another day without coaching. That’s all that matters. But I like pro football. In college football, I could’ve taught ‘em 10 more things, but we were out of time! You’re only allowed 21 hours per week? You gotta be kidding me! You can make them better, but you can’t meet any longer?

Aren’t the kids there to go to school?

Jim Leyland and I went to high school together in Detroit; he’s now the manager of the Detroit Tigers. Whenever the Tigers played an afternoon game, Jim Leyland and I went to the Tigers game, and my mom wrote me a note. I said, “Mom, you’re great for writing this note.” My mom said, “You’ll learn more at the stadium than you will at school.”

Coach, thanks for your time.

Don’t let anybody discourage you, man. You with me?

Sure, Coach.

When times get tough, you’ve got to roar up on your hind legs and kick like a wild horse. As long as you do that, they can never bother you. You with me?

Yes, sir.

A Q&A with Jerry Glanville

The N.F.L. League is back in business, and its 30 coaches are scrambling to cram months of preparation into a couple of weeks. There are some underemployed football coaches out there, but Jerry Glanville, though idle, had the pedal to the metal in the hills of north Georgia.

“Can you hear me?” Glanville said by cellphone, yelling to be heard over the snarling engine of his 1984 Thunderbird. “I’m driving around the mountains. If I lose you, call right back. I have to go drop this car off and pick up another.”

Glanville’s career has been a wild ride. In a bit more than eight seasons as an N.F.L. head coach, his record was 63-73. He endorsed an aggressive style of play and was known for his candor. He left the N.F.L. in 1993 and became a television commentator while pursuing a career racing trucks and cars in Nascar.

“I think when I ran for Rookie of the Year, I was 54, and Jeff Gordon was 18 at the same time, and I was battling him!” he said. “Now that’s fun!”

Glanville, 69, spent the last five years coaching college football, first as defensive coordinator at Hawaii, then as the coach at Portland State. In March, Glanville was hired as the coach and general manager of the Hartford Colonials in the nascent United Football League. Last week, the U.F.L. announced it was delaying the start of the season until mid-September to address financial issues. Glanville returned to his home in Georgia to wait for the season to begin.

How has the U.F.L. postponing the start of its season affected you?

I’m funny, because you can disappoint me but not discourage me. So I’m disappointed, but I’m not discouraged. I hope it all works out.

When the U.F.L. hired you, you said you might have the best job in America.

I think it’s a throwback to 1974, when I was with Detroit. The players aren’t spoiled, everybody’s together. We screwed the game up with bonuses based on nothing having to do with team wins. In the U.F.L., you don’t have any of that. The No. 1 goal? Win the game. What a concept that is, huh? You’re gonna hear a lot of racket, I’m trying to start up one of my racecars. You don’t care, do you?

No, that’s fine.

[Sound of an engine cranking, not turning over] They don’t like to start. [Sound of an engine cranking, not turning over.] Wow, got some power, huh? [Sound of engine cranking, this time roaring to life; Glanville screams over the noise.] That’s what I’m talking about! I’m gonna back out of the garage. It’s a drag car that I run. It’s an ‘84 Thunderbird, with a 351 Cleveland. Whoo baby! You think I’m crazy, don’t you? But the reason I said I thought I had the best job is, we have a great owner. And the owner wants me to coach the football team. There’s no politics, which I was never any good at. There’s no kissing butt. You like the sound of the car?

It sounds good on my cellphone.

You got 525 horsepower, 555 pounds of torque. It’s awesome.

Was your racing career dangerous?

Yeah, you get in accidents every other year or so, get knocked around a little bit. I got burned up, got caught in a fire, got skin grafts. Everybody said, “Oh, after that fire, you’ll never drive the same.” The greatest thing is they did a skin graft — on my right arm, from my shoulder to my elbow, all the skin is from my right leg. But the way the skin graft came out, the skin graft looks like the state of Texas. And I look at that and I think, How sweet is that? I got the state of Texas on my arm! It’s kind of funny, a guy called me and he goes, “How does that affect you, now that you’ve got your legs up on your arms?” I go, “I get down on all fours, I can run like a horse. I’m faster than ever!”

There was a story that when you were coaching in the N.F.L., you would leave tickets for Elvis before every game. Was that true?

Don’t screw up a good story with facts. We were playing the New England Patriots in a spring game. June Jones and I were riding to work in a pickup truck, and on the radio they said Elvis was spotted at a Burger King in Michigan. And June says, “Isn’t the halftime show dedicated to Elvis at our game?” I said, “Yeah.” He goes, “Well hell, we ought to leave him a ticket.” So we left him a ticket. Now if you get on the Internet, you’ll see that I left him a ticket for every game I coached in Atlanta. We never left a ticket for anyone in Atlanta, ever. But why ruin that story?

Do you ever Google yourself?

I used to have a thing on my computer, you could type in a “Jerry Glanville” alert. So if somebody wrote something new, it would pop up. And I was at home the whole time. It would give me three one day, two the next day, then seven. I’d go, “You gotta be kidding.” One I got mad at. They had a deal, they were voting whether I was alive or not. I voted five times that I was alive. And then I figured out, hell, I might as well vote I’m dead.

Which side won?

You know, I was afraid to go back and see.

Why did you return to coaching?

I went to Iraq on an N.F.L. alumni thing, and I talked to all these 19-year-old kids, and they said, “You gotta come back and coach.” I said, “You know what? If I get home after this frickin’ trip, I’m gonna coach.” And I’ve been coaching ever since. I have a good friend, Waylon Jennings, who got sick. He said, “Jerry Glanville, don’t you dare die with the music inside you.” I’m a teacher. It doesn’t matter where you coach, it doesn’t matter if you’re in college. If you see a kid get better, you’ve had a hell of a day.

Do you want to get back to the N.F.L.?

I don’t want to go another day without coaching. That’s all that matters. But I like pro football. In college football, I could’ve taught ‘em 10 more things, but we were out of time! You’re only allowed 21 hours per week? You gotta be kidding me! You can make them better, but you can’t meet any longer?

Aren’t the kids there to go to school?

Jim Leyland and I went to high school together in Detroit; he’s now the manager of the Detroit Tigers. Whenever the Tigers played an afternoon game, Jim Leyland and I went to the Tigers game, and my mom wrote me a note. I said, “Mom, you’re great for writing this note.” My mom said, “You’ll learn more at the stadium than you will at school.”

Coach, thanks for your time.

Don’t let anybody discourage you, man. You with me?

Sure, Coach.

When times get tough, you’ve got to roar up on your hind legs and kick like a wild horse. As long as you do that, they can never bother you. You with me?

Yes, sir.