Patriots (5-3) at Jets (5-3)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Line: Jets by 1.
The seventh annual Patriots Dynasty Deathwatch is under way. The team has lost two straight games, prompting the usual hand-wringing about eras ending and la belle époque coming to a melancholy fin. We have now endured over a half-decade of laments about how a team that routinely wins 11 to 16 games per year is not what it used to be, simultaneously criticizing Bill Belichick for his recent personnel decisions and genuflecting before the altar of his past accomplishments. No wonder otherwise sane people ardently root against this team.
The Patriots’ need to prolong their dramatic swoon to William Shatner lengths, coupled with the usual noisy Jets’ chest thumping, has turned this into the most torturously overblown rivalry in the N.F.L. Unless you are a lifelong Jets or Patriots fan, you feel you have been clamped to your seat, eyelids taped open, neck immobilized and forced to watch. It’s less a battle of two great teams (both are highly flawed this season) than a battle of attention hounds of differing styles. The Jets should win easily — the Patriots have only one starting-caliber cornerback to handle three very good Jets receivers — but “let us again bid fond farewell to the glorious Patriots” conversations that will dominate the following week make it almost not worth the trouble. Pick: Jets.
Lions (6-2) at Bears (5-3)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Bears by 2.
Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh had a private meeting with Commissioner Roger Goodell last week in which Goodell reportedly clarified the N.F.L.’s rules regarding unnecessary roughness. Suh was later seen walking down Park Avenue with his hair singed and pupils dilated, like Charlton Heston coming down from Mount Sinai in “The Ten Commandments.” Suh is now the only person on earth who understands the N.F.L.’s rules regarding unnecessary roughness. Apparently, it is not some arbitrary foul based upon a referee’s personal interpretation of unenforceable, over-legislated mandates, sometimes coaxed by convincing method writhing by the quarterback. It only appears that way to the unenlightened. Goodell should meet with all of us, one by one, until everyone understands: the guy who runs your fantasy league next week, then Brian Baldinger, then finally Michael Vick, who will learn about the exceptions that apply only to him.
The Suh summit was well timed: the Bears and the Lions combined for 26 penalties in their October meeting, a few of them caused by the exuberance of Suh’s teammates and Jay Cutler’s pro wrestling reaction to every brush on the elbow. The Bears’ offensive line has solidified since that penalty-marred mess, but if Suh spreads his message of peace to his teammates, the Bears will not benefit from the 15-yard freebies the Lions have been handing out all year. Pick: Lions.
Saints (6-3) at Falcons (5-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Even.
To motivate his team after an embarrassing loss to the Rams, Sean Payton distributed red baseball bats with “Buccaneers” written on them to his players last week. The message, according to linebacker Jo-Lonn Dunbar: “Be physical, bring the wood and hit somebody.’’ The hidden message: Payton has far too much time to think of things like this while hobbling around on crutches. Soon, he will accuse Raymond Burr of burying his wife in the flower garden. Les batons rouge worked in Louisiana, but then everything has; the Saints are 4-0 at home but 2-3 on the road.
The Falcons’ defeat of the Colts last week was so easy and dull that even the referees wanted to hurry things along. “That’s the end of the fourth quarter,” Mike Carey said at the end of the third quarter, thinking wishfully. The Falcons have regained their ability to win in methodical, uninteresting ways over the last three games, but their matchups with the Saints are usually more compelling: the last three games between the teams have been decided by a field goal. Or, as Payton now calls them, three-run home runs. Pick: Saints.
Texans (6-3) at Buccaneers (4-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Texans by 3.
Buccaneers Coach Raheem Morris sent the speedy backup quarterback Josh Johnson onto the field on third-and-4 just before halftime against the Saints while trailing, 14-0. The entire Saints defense, most of the fans and even nearby wildlife sniffed out potential Wildcat-like tomfoolery — the replay shows cornerback Jabari Greer ignoring his receiver to zero in on Johnson — and the telegraphed quarterback sweep gained just one yard. Morris shrugged off criticism of the decision at his news conference. “It didn’t work, so it was a bad idea,” he said. “If it had worked, it would have been great.” Yes, it would have been the wisest decision to give a player his first action in three weeks by making him execute a poorly-designed play that everyone knows is coming in a critical situation ever made.
The Buccaneers also signed the serial loafer Albert Haynesworth this week, just hours after he was released by the Patriots. Haynesworth is the perfect weapon against the Texans’ cut-blocking strategy. Texans blockers will dive to the ground to cut block only to find Haynesworth already there, curled up and fast asleep. Pick: Texans.
Giants (6-2) at 49ers (7-1)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: 49ers by 3 .
Remember linebackers? They were huge, angry men who stuffed running plays, sacked quarterbacks, intimidated opponents and captured the imagination of fans with their athleticism and barely-controlled aggression. The linebacker went extinct in the northeastern United States when Antonio Pierce retired, but San Francisco has a thriving colony of them. The All-Pro Patrick Willis is the one you know about, but NaVorro Bowman (71 tackles), Ahmad Brooks (five sacks), the rookie Aldon Smith (six and a half sacks off the bench) and Parys Haralson (three forced fumbles) are all making their mark. They are coached by the defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who developed the great Dome Patrol Saints linebackers of the late 1980s, and all but Smith received early-career training from Mike Singletary, who was a samurai. Their great linebacking corps is one of several reasons the Niners have become the only carnivores in the N.F.C. West petting zoo, and it gives them an advantage over the Giants when playing physical punt-and-pin football. Pick: 49ers.
Steelers (6-3) at Bengals (6-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Steelers by 3.
Seeing the Bengals atop the A.F.C. North standings, with the Steelers third, creates a feeling of dislocation; it’s the kind of thing the hero of a science fiction novel notices in the newspaper before realizing he has traveled to a parallel universe. (Look at the A.F.C. South standings and you will swear you have slipped into “A Sound of Thunder.”) The Bengals have gotten where they are by being bad at nothing, which in the N.F.L. this year counts much more than being great at anything. Offense, run defense, pass defense, special teams — the Bengals are adequate in all areas, despite their reliance on rookies like Andy Dalton and A.J. Green and injuries to key players like tight end Jermaine Gresham and linebacker Rey Maualuga. The Bengals have also gutted out close wins against welterweights like the Titans and the Bills when not snacking on the Colts or the Seahawks. They face the Steelers and the Ravens three times in the next four weeks, so the divisional standings may soon return to their Earth Prime alignment. Pick: Steelers.
Broncos (3-5) at Chiefs (4-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Chiefs by 3.
It is surprising what people find surprising these days. The Broncos unveiled a “choice option” wrinkle in their offense last week, something every 10-year-old video gamer probably installed the moment he inserted Tim Tebow into the starting lineup and began mashing buttons. It’s a simple play — Tebow either hands off from the shotgun or keeps the ball and runs, depending on the defensive formation — and an obvious tactic for a fast quarterback, but the Raiders reacted as if they were somehow unaware of Tebow’s skill set. Defenders ignored the threat of a Tebow run, then slipped while chasing him; Raiders coordinators adjusted too late to a strategy they should have anticipated during their weekly preparation. Tebow boosters believe they have found the secret to his success: simply stick with these collegiate tactics and wait for the Lombardi Trophy to arrive. The real secret uncovered last Sunday? The Raiders’ defense is not very smart. Pick: Chiefs.
Cardinals (2-6) at Eagles (3-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Eagles by 14.
How will Philadelphia fans react to the return of Kevin Kolb, who ruled the city like a king from July 26 to Sept. 12, 2010? Will they cheer? Boo? Be too busy in the concession lines to care? Kolb will not even play: he was still in a protective boot in midweek, so John Skelton (who stayed out of trouble while the Cardinals special teams came back to beat the lowly Rams) gets another start. At least Kolb gets to hobble around on a familiar sideline. Pick: Eagles.
Titans (4-4) at Panthers (2-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Panthers by 3.
The Panthers’ first-year coach, Ron Rivera, thinks that his team incurs extra penalties because he has not yet earned a reputation around the league. “I feel as a first-year head coach you’re not getting the calls that you would like,” he said Monday. “Certain coaches do get a little more toward their way.” The fact that receiver Legedu Naanee has a habit of grabbing defenders in the open field — he has four holding penalties, four more than most wide receivers commit in a season — may have more to do with it than Rivera’s inexperience. Titans cornerback Cortland Finnegan was voted the league’s third-dirtiest player in a Sporting News player survey, behind Ndamukong Suh and James Harrison. Remember when Bugs Bunny learned that the bounty for a rabbit was just two cents and went on a crime spree, sawing Florida loose and filling the Grand Canyon? Finnegan is capable of similar deviltry Sunday, unless Naanee grabs him. Pick: Panthers.
Redskins (3-5) at Dolphins (1-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Dolphins by 3.
It’s not that the Redskins do not believe in rebuilding; it’s just that they do not know the meaning of the word. “I’m not even sure what you mean by rebuilding,” Mike Shanahan said Monday. That did not stop him from using the word to explain why he was initially reluctant to hire his son Kyle as offensive coordinator. “I’m the one who told Kyle not to come,” he said. “I said we’re going to have to rebuild this football team, starting on offense.” Oh, so the Redskins are rebuilding, or trying to. Or are they? “Now, with the draft, free agency, getting some young players playing as second-teamers, and they’re getting a chance to see what they can do,” Shanahan said. “Now if that’s what you call rebuilding, then we’re rebuilding.” In other words, communications and long-range planning in Washington have risen to their usual standards. Pick: Dolphins.
Rams (1-7) at Browns (3-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Browns by 2.
This week, the Rams force three Browns safeties, as Colt McCoy keeps getting flagged for intentional grounding in the end zone. McCoy tries to argue that Chris Ogbonnaya and Montario Hardesty are eligible receivers, not radio contest winners who wandered onto the field wearing helmets, but the referees refuse to take him seriously. Nursing a 6-0 lead, the Rams make the fatal mistake of trying to play offense. They then punt to Josh Cribbs, who eludes all 11 defenders on a 99-yard return, carrying several teammates on his shoulders into the end zone. Meanwhile, Peyton Hillis steals all of the holiday decorations from local malls and promises 200 turkeys to a local charity, only to show up late with three cans of pumpkin pie filling. Pick: Browns.
Bills (5-3) at Cowboys (4-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Cowboys by 5.
The Bills have 57,000 unsold tickets left for their three remaining home games, so they have announced a promotion called December Charge. You can get a 12 percent discount if you buy three tickets to games in December. Thermal underwear, snowshoes and St. Bernard not included. Order now, and you get tickets to imaginary Cowboys Stadium seats for the next Super Bowl. There’s another way to get a ticket to a Bills game: Twitter-block a linebacker. Kirk Morrison needed to swap Twitter handles with a young man from Saskatchewan also named Kirk Morrison, so he traded an all-expenses-paid trip to the Bills-Jets game for the name. Quick: register yourself as @AndrewLuckColts, @AndrewLuckDolphins and @AndrewLuckSeahawks to see what happens! Pick: Bills.
Jaguars (2-6) at Colts (0-9)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Jaguars by 3.
The Colts and the Jaguars have met 20 times. Peyton Manning was the Colts quarterback for 19 of those meetings. The only other quarterback to start a game for the Colts against the Jaguars was Craig Erickson in 1995: he threw just 16 passes, but two of them were touchdowns in a 41-31 victory. No word yet on whether the Colts have contacted Erickson for Sunday. Pick: Jaguars.
Ravens (6-2) at Seahawks (2-6)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Ravens by 6.
Ravens Coach John Harbaugh had a large bruise on his chin during his Monday news conference. It seems that after Baltimore’s win over the Steelers, General Manager Ozzie Newsome met Harbaugh in the tunnel and applied the kind of celebratory hug that often ends with a $20,000 fine from the commissioner’s office. Two weeks ago, Pete Carroll explained that coaches go for touchdowns when they get “hormonal”; apparently, general managers go for coaches. Joe Flacco’s last-minute comeback against the Steelers changed experts’ perceptions of him because he did exactly what he always does — throw bombs and sideline passes, get used as James Harrison’s scratching post — in a slightly different order. The Seahawks’ offensive philosophy this year is to keep their time of possession so low that nobody notices them. Pick: Ravens.
Vikings (2-6) at Packers (8-0)
Monday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Packers by 13.
In the last two games, including one against the Vikings, Aaron Rodgers has thrown seven touchdown passes and just 11 incomplete passes. When he drops back to pass, he is nearly as likely to throw a touchdown (10.9 percent chance) as an incompletion (17.6 percent), though his chance to be sacked (12.5 percent) is somewhere in between. The Vikings’ chances of winning rest with the Packers’ defense playing another messy game like last Sunday’s, in which it allowed 38 points while scoring 14. Christian Ponder led a near-comeback against the Packers three weeks ago, and it may happen again, but you cannot like the odds. Pick: Packers.
All Times Eastern. Picks do not reflect the point spread.
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