Showing posts with label Eli Manning. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Eli Manning. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Rivers, Manning and Interception Follies

San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers insists there is nothing wrong with him. He has a league-high 14 interceptions; the most he has ever thrown in a season is 15. “I’m not hurt,” Rivers told reporters. “I’ve thrown a handful of picks that I normally don’t throw, and I’ll probably throw some more throughout my career. There won’t always be a reason why.”

That attitude won’t win over critics, but statistical studies back him up.

The number of interceptions thrown by a quarterback one year has been shown to have no predictive value for how many he will throw the next year. The ability to avoid sacks can be projected fairly well with past statistics, even if a quarterback changes teams, but the randomness of interceptions makes forecasting them a fool’s errand.

One example comes from the Giants’ Eli Manning. Last season, Manning had a career-high 25 interceptions, which was more than his 2008 and 2009 seasons combined (24). If he keeps up his pace this season — six interceptions in eight games — he will have less than half his interception total of last season.

In August, Jason Lisk of the Big Lead wrote:

If you want to have a fun bet with your buddy at the bar, bet him that you’ll take Eli Manning, and he can pick three other starting quarterbacks, anyone he wants, who he predicts will have a better interception percentage than Eli in 2011. All three must beat Eli for him to win. It’s not a fair bet, because of the randomness of interceptions, but I suspect he’ll jump at the chance to go with Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan against your mistake-prone choice.

As it turns out, Brady, who had four interceptions last season, is among the league leaders this season.
Most interceptions this season
Philip Rivers SD 14
Drew Brees NO 11
Tom Brady NE 10
Josh Freeman TB 10

Getting back to Rivers:
1) Michael Silver of Yahoo Sports says the Chargers’ general manager has a big hand in Rivers’s troubles: “Has anyone done more swinging and missing lately than general manager A.J. Smith, and isn’t it time someone held him accountable for his declining batting average?”

2) Rivers spoke with Clark Judge of CBSSports.com, and seems to have the right mental approach.

Q: You’re certainly not the first one to go through something like this. Eli Manning had 25 interceptions last year. Drew Brees had a career-high 22 last season. Have you sought out anyone who’s been through this for advice?

Rivers: I haven’t, but, like you said, you’re never going to play at the same level forever, even though you want to. Again, I just think we have an eight-game season here. We were 2-5 last year, and we were 4-8 two years ago. Who’s to say the second half of this season might not be the best eight games I’ve ever played? I think it’s just that confidence and … why not? Why can’t we get on that kind of roll? Because we have in previous years. We’ve also been 13-3 and gotten knocked out [of the playoffs] in the first round.

Monday, November 7, 2011

Has Eli Manning Earned the Right to Be Called Elite?

Had Eli Manning thrown an interception in the Giants’ final drive against the Patriots on Sunday, the answer among fans might be different. Short memories, small sample sizes and high emotion are not a recipe for rationality.

After Manning finished with 25 interceptions last season, our Andy Barall wrote that Giants fans would miss him when he was gone — not a popular opinion at the time.

Then came August, and Manning was asked in a radio interview if he was in the same class as Tom Brady.

He replied, “I consider myself in that class.”

Cue the laughter.

Shutdown Corner, while praising Manning for his confidence, also called it “the irrational, delusional kind”:

Eli is wrong, of course. Tom Brady is a better quarterback than Eli Manning, and that’s not a criticism of Eli or even a statement of opinion. That’s just the way it is. The sun rises in the East, two plus two is four, and Tom Brady is a better quarterback than Eli Manning.

Manning had a chance to match up with Brady on Sunday, and just as he did in the 2008 Super Bowl, he outdueled him and rallied the Giants to victory with two fourth-quarter touchdown passes.

Still, Jason Cole of Yahoo Sports  wasn’t ready to give Eli an “E”:

Is it time to vault Manning into that class with guys like Brady, his brother Peyton, Drew Brees) and Aaron Rodgers? Can we somehow elevate him to a status that stats and moments don’t quite justify?

No, not yet.

If you’re looking for a bottom line answer to whether New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning is the equal of New England Patriots counterpart Tom Brady, the answer is still no.

Extra point Forget about Sunday, as exciting as it was. It was one game. Is Eli one of the top five quarterbacks? Is he truly elite?

Here’s a sample of Manning’s discussion with reporters after the game (the full transcript is at the Giants’ Web site):

Q: Did you see any of the signs in the stands saying you were not an elite quarterback?

Eli: I did not. I don’t make it a habit of looking into the stands and reading signs. If I did, I don’t think I would have thought they were the experts to make that decision.

Q: Are you surprised that the question about where you rank has become a season-long debate?

Eli: I just don’t worry about it; it doesn’t affect my performance, my preparation or my mindset on what I need to do each week. If someone wants to put me in that class or not doesn’t bother me. It’s not going to get me depressed or get me cocky. I just try to prepare each week and go out there and try to win each game.

Sunday, October 16, 2011

Bills at Giants: Matchup to Watch

Bills (4-1) at Giants (3-2), 1 p.m. Eastern, CBS

Matchup to Watch: Eli Manning vs. Bills’ secondary

Interceptions have not been nearly as great an issue for the Giants this season as they were in 2010, but if ever there was a game for a relapse, this would be it. The Bills have 12 interceptions (and 16 takeaways over all), with safety George Wilson recording an interception each of the last three weeks. On Sept. 25, Tom Brady threw four interceptions against the Bills, so Manning must beware.

Number to watch: 75
Say this for the Giants and Bills: They don’t pass up opportunities to score. In 20 trips inside the opponents’ 20 this season, the Bills have scored 15 touchdowns, giving them the N.F.L.’s best red-zone efficiency at 75 percent. Right behind them? The Giants, who have 10 touchdowns in 14 red-zone opportunities (71 percent).

QUOTATION OF THE WEEK

“Fitz is finding everybody — we all want to get into the stands and celebrate with the fans.”
Bills receiver STEVIE JOHNSON, on quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick’s accuracy in the red zone.

Monday, October 3, 2011

Umenyiora Returns With a Flourish

A quick look back at the Giants’ 31-27 victory over Arizona:

KEY PERFORMANCE

With Justin Tuck’s health an issue, Osi Umenyiora’s return from arthroscopic knee surgery could not have come at a better time. Umenyiora, who had 11.5 sacks in 2010, recorded two (one which forced a fumble) in his 2011 debut. “I love to play,” he said. “This is what I live for and I was happy to go out there and get this win.”

NOTABLE NUMBER
The Giants had 3 rushing yards in the fourth quarter (on 12 attempts), leaving Eli Manning to carry the offensive load through the air. He delivered, completing 14 of 17 fourth-quarter passes for 180 yards, with 2 touchdowns.

TALKING POINT

With the Eagles and Cowboys struggling, can the Giants take advantage of three straight home games to put an early stranglehold on the N.F.C. East?

Saturday, August 27, 2011

Eli Manning and Giants Roll With the Storms

Eli Manning grew up in the South, playing high school football in Louisiana before going to college at Ole Miss, so dealing with severe weather is not new to him.

“We had some high school practices that were affected by hurricanes,” Manning said, according to a transcript released by the team Saturday afternoon. “During the summers and in August, we always just left early. That was my dad’s approach, to say, ‘If we can get out of town, we’ll leave a few days before and miss all the traffic and chaos. And if it changes direction and it doesn’t hit us, that’s a blessing and we’ll come home and everything will be fine.’ ”

Like most residents of the tristate area, however, Manning did not expect to have to deal with hurricanes now that he is working in New Jersey. But with Hurricane Irene advancing up the East Coast this weekend, the Giants’ game against the Jets was postponed from Saturday to Monday, leaving the Giants to hold a practice early Saturday before the players were sent home.

Manning said Coach Tom Coughlin told the players to make sure they had enough provisions for their families during the next few days, and Coughlin stressed to the players that they should avoid going outside.

“That’s why he gave us the day off,” Manning said. “He said it’s supposed to hit tomorrow morning and it’s a big storm, a wide, long hurricane, so it’s going to last the majority of the day with high winds and heavy rain. So stay in the house and have enough food and water so you don’t have to leave and let this thing full clear before we have to go out and about.”

From a football standpoint, the postponement leaves the Giants in the unusual position of playing a game on Monday and then playing again on Thursday, when they will face the New England Patriots in their final preseason game.

In the comments released by the Giants, Coughlin reiterated that the team’s starters would play the first half of the game against the Jets as previously planned. The Thursday game, Coughlin said, “would be the game we would deviate from how we’ve done things in the past” because of the compressed schedule. That could mean that some starters will not play at all against the Patriots.

“This game coming is going to be very important,” Manning said of facing the Jets. “We’re going to get some looks and see how we stand against a 3-4 team, a team that does some exotic blitzes and a top-quality team. We have to make sure everybody is on the same page and communicating and everybody is doing their responsibility.”

The strangest aspect of the situation, Manning said, is that the team will not be staying in a hotel together the night before a game. Players will stay at home Sunday night, then reconvene Monday afternoon for meetings before facing the Jets.

At the very least, the Giants have some experience with the unexpected. Manning said the Giants could be more adaptable because of what happened last season, when they were forced to play a game against the Minnesota Vikings in Detroit (and a day later than scheduled) after the collapse of the Metrodome in Minneapolis.

“Last year, we were traveling around and staying in hotels and we didn’t know where we were going to play or what was going on,” Manning said. “That was different. With this game, we know when we’re playing, we know the time. We adjusted and got to have an extra practice. I thought guys stayed mentally prepared and didn’t complain about anything. They were going with the flow of things. I think that’s the right approach. We’ll be excited about getting back on the field on Monday.”

Coughlin agreed.

“We’re getting good at mid-stream adjustments,” he said. “I don’t know if that is something you necessarily want to perfect, but I think we’re close.”

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

2011 Giants Season Preview

Thus far, the story of the 2011 Giants has centered on Osi Umenyiora. He is looking for the new contract he says General Manager Jerry Reesehad promised him. Umenyiora accused Reese of lying in a sworn affidavit during the lockout. After the lockout, he surprisingly showed up to training camp, with the Giants having given him permission to seek a trade. The  first-round price tag, however, was too steep for the rest of the league.

Though present for camp, Umenyiora, a 29-year-old defensive end, did not practice with the team because, according to the Giant public relations staff, “he says he has a sore knee.”

The Giants are now in an ugly Catch-22. Trade Umenyiora and, in their minds, they set a precedent for rewarding disruptive players who break contracts. (They also lose an upper-echelon edge rusher from a defense that has long been built on pressuring the quarterback up front.) Keep Umenyiora and, well, they have a disruptive locker room presence. A super disruptive locker room presence.

That’s what makes this whole ordeal interesting. Umenyiora is not staging his protest peacefully. Throughout all this, he has publicly blasted Reese and questioned the organization’s integrity. What makes it dicey for the co-owner and team president John Mara, Coach Tom Coughlin, Reese and the rest of the powers that be is that Umenyiora’s complaints seem founded. He has become the screaming kid in the supermarket whose parents are looking around nervously, thinking onlookers might be siding with him.

In an Aug. 1 letter to The Associated Press, Umenyiora wrote: “What really annoys me is the hypocrisy of people clamoring for my head for asking for a new deal or to be traded. Saying I have 2 years left on my deal. These contracts only mean something to us? Where is  O’Hara? Where is Seubert? True, inspirational football players, they were cut after being injured. They have years left on their deal.”

You think other Giants players aren’t thinking, “Hmmmm….Osi may have a point”? This is the type of drama that can fracture a franchise.

Doesn’t it always seem as if we’re hearing these kinds of stories with the Giants? Whether it’s Plaxico Burress or Brandon Jacobs or Michael Strahan and Tiki Barber or Tom Coughlin, who, by the way, has proved that no amount of short-term contract extensions, including his recent one, which lasts through 2012, can decrease the temperature of a New York coach’s hot seat. The Giants are always a source of back page fodder.

And it’s always relevant fodder that affects what happens on the field. This year is no exception. Look at the various story angles that protrude from the Umenyiora drama: Reese’s efforts to keep a perennial N.F.C. contender intact; the future of the much-ballyhooed defense minus perhaps its most explosive playmaker; the rebuilding of an offensive line that has been a beacon of stability but now must move on without veteran leaders Shaun O’Hara and Rich Seubert.

There’s a lot going on in New York. But let’s not get carried away. Drama can be a burden, but it’s nothing that can’t be overcome. Why, wasn’t 2007 the year Coughlin reportedly “lost the team”?

Offense

How about that, huh? An entire intro built around Giants drama and not one mention of Eli Manning’s demeanor, body language, leadership or whatever else the eighth-year pro supposedly botches or masters (depending on which arm-chair psychologist you talk to)? One reason Manning can be less analyzed these days is he has finally blossomed as a quarterback. At 30, it’s safe to declare him a finished product.

Over all, it’s a pretty good looking product. Manning is one of the toughest pocket passers in the league. His timing has sharpened over the years and his mistakes have decreased commensurately. (It was a mere aberration that he led the league with 25 interceptions last season; about half of those picks were a consequence of receivers tipping passes up in the air or running bad routes.) All in all, he’s a top 10 N.F.L. quarterback with a high-enough football IQ to run the whole show if needed (as opposed to only what coordinator Kevin Gilbride tells him to run).

Most impressive about Manning is that he has elevated his young receivers. Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham have come to life in New York’s stable system – Nicks because of his strong, supple athleticism and big hands, and Manningham because of his all-around swiftness and excellence outside the numbers.

Manning will have to cultivate new relationships with other receivers in 2011. The steady slot outlet Steve Smith may be gone. As of early August, he remained a free agent and is just eights months removed from a sketchy microfracture operation. The Giants hope that third-round rookie Jerrel Jernigan, whom some have compared to Deion Branch, can fill the void. If he can’t, Domenik Hixon, who was emerging before a torn ACL last June, could get a shot, though more preferable would be for the big  third-year pro Ramses Barden to stay healthy and start cooking some of his considerable raw talent.

Many have bemoaned the departure of the free-agent tight end Kevin Boss, but he actually has less innate talent than replacement Travis Beckum. Whether Beckum has Boss’s toughness down the seams remains to be seen, but in him the Giants have a receiver fluid enough to create more formation and route variations in the passing game. The abrupt retirement of Ben Patrick was offset by the addition of blocking tight end Daniel Coats. Fullback Bear Pascoe’s inexperience is no longer an issue after the solid work he did in 2010.

The magnitude of the personnel changes to this offensive line cannot be overstated. Giants fans are finally getting their wish with left tackle David Diehl moving back to guard to replace Seubert. At left tackle, Diehl was very average pass blocking on an island. But in the end, he almost always did his job. We don’t know if this will be the case with replacement William Beatty. It’s somewhat telling that Beatty, a second-round pick in ’09, wasn’t able to crack the starting lineup a year ago.

Revered as the gritty O’Hara was, he clearly lost a step because of injury last season. A change had to be made at his position. The Giants are hoping that the acquisition of six-year Niners guard/center David Baas will suffice. It might, but don’t bet on raving success. Baas can pull-block, but he doesn’t have the quickness to get to the second level (where O’Hara made his living). He’s not particularly strong, either.

Expect the Giants to run right even more frequently in 2011. Guard Chris Snee is elite in every sense, and tackle Kareem McKenzie, while a somewhat stationary player, at least offers familiarity and the strength to anchor in his phone booth. In part to take advantage of the underrated power of Ahmad Bradshaw and punishing power of Brandon Jacobs, the Giants employed more six-man lines than any team in the N.F.C. last season. This year they can keep referring to utility backup Kevin Boothe in these sets, though don’t be surprised if free agent pickup Stacy Andrews, or more likely, massive fourth-round rookie James Brewer, find a niche here.

Few who would have ever guessed that Jacobs would take a pay cut so the team could re-sign Bradshaw – the man who stole his starting job? (Jacobs maybe didn’t have a choice, but to his credit, he was publicly supportive of the idea.) Bradshaw is the No. 1 back not just because his receiving skills and shiftiness lend more versatility to the offense, but also because he’s the more powerful runner. This may seem absurd given the 264-pound Jacobs freight train running style, but the tape doesn’t lie: Bradshaw, who is compact and low to the ground, is tougher to tackle.

Defense

We tend to think of the Giant defense as being about a great front four. Jerry Reese has followed in the footsteps of Ernie Accorsi (who followed in the footsteps of George Young) by building his lineup around the defensive line. Hence the 2010 first-round draft pick he invested in Jason Pierre-Paul, despite already having first-round pass-rusher Mathias Kiwanuka and bookend stars Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora on the roster.

But as important as the front four is for New York, this defensive unit under Perry Fewell has become more about highlighting the versatility and athleticism of its top players by using a multitude of presnap looks. Tuck, the best right end in football, is frequently used as a standup linebacker and joker. Antrel Rolle, the prized free-agent safety from a year ago, plays a flexible Charles Woodson-like role on most downs. It works because Rolle has the man-coverage skills to guard receivers in the slot and he’s an excellent all-around tackler.

Furthering the emphasis on versatility and athleticism, the Giants were frequently in nickel defense last season and basically ran a 4-2-5. With Rolle so often aligned in the run front, the Giants kept explosive hitter Kenny Phillips and veteran Deon Grant in the deeper safety slots. With Grant now replaced by rookie Tyler Sash (a sixth-round pick but someone who could one day develop into a starter), the Giants’ nickel package this season will shift to more traditional three cornerback personnel. Corey Webster will often be asked to shadow the opposing team’s best receiver. Terrell Thomas will see plenty of one-on-one matchups as well (the Giants put a lot of stock in the coverage abilities of their defensive backs). The addition of physical first-round rookie Prince Amukamara could land Thomas in more of a safety-esque role, as Amukamara is most likely best suited for the outside, and Rolle is too valuable to relocate from the slot. However, Amukamara will begin the season on the mend after breaking the fifth metatarsal bone in his foot early training camp, so expect lanky dime back Aaron Ross to fill Grant’s old third safety chores.

Generating a pass rush shouldn’t be a problem with Tuck and (we assume) Umenyiora up front. The expected maturation of Pierre-Paul should help, too. But a legitimate concern is this defense’s ability to stop the run. Tuck is phenomenal in all forms of run defense, but the rest of the line is up in the air. Underrated defensive tackle Barry Cofield is gone and will be replaced by rookie Marvin Austin, a first-round talent who dropped to Round Two because of character. Generally, the transition to pro football is extra difficult for defensive tackles (probably due to the difference in competition they face; in college, the interior line is usually just made up of the fattest players a team has, while in the pros, the interior line is loaded with outstanding athletes.)

In order to start, Austin must beat out Linval Joseph, last year’s second-round pick who rarely got on the field. At the other defensive tackle position, it’s time for ex-Cowboy Chris Canty to earn his money (believe it or not, he’s the highest-paid defensive lineman on this team…which Umenyiora, and the less-disgruntled Tuck, have surely noticed). At 6’7”, 304 pounds, Canty has a rare build that can be used for creating congestion.

He’ll need to congest because middle linebacker Jonathan Goff offers little playmaking flair. The methodical Goff plays slowly when having to make reads. This is an issue because, as talented as Mathias Kiwanuka is, he’s still playing out of position as a strongside linebacker. If Kiwanuka proves to again be tentative in a two-point stance, or if he’s not the same player after last year’s neck injury, the coaching staff may have no choice but to put the insanely athletic though thus far non-achieving Clint Sintim on the field. Weakside starter Michael Boley is one of the best coverage linebackers in the game, but his output tends to waffle at times and he makes too many costly missteps against the run.

Special Teams

Matt Dodge needs to either make the Pro Bowl four straight years or date a Kardashian if he wants to ever be known for something other than booting the ball down the middle to DeSean Jackson. That was the mistake that drew the headlines in ’10, but Dodge’s problems actually ran much deeper than that. Simply put, his height and placement must improve. Otherwise, former Jet Steve Weatherford will steal his job. Kicker Lawrence Tynes has a big enough foot. Middling return specialist Darius Reynaud may have to fend off Domenik Hixon.

Bottom Line

There’s not a lot to suggest that the Giants will be better in 2011. They’ve lost a few minor role players and are counting on completely untested youngsters to take their place. But the core of the club remains intact, so if players who have elevated their games before can band together and do so again, a playoff run is certainly possible. Last season, guys elevated their game, but just not all at the same time.

Predicted: 3rd N.F.C. East

Andy Benoit is the founder of NFLTouchdown.com and covers the N.F.L. for CBSsports.com. He can be reached at andy.benoit@NFLtouchdown.com.

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