Metro Pucks: Rangers Win in Overtime; Isles Fall to Tampa Bay

Ryan McDonagh’s goal with two seconds left in overtime gave the Rangers a 3-2 win in Calgary on Thursday.

On the game-winning goal, Brandon Dubinsky kept the puck in the Flames’ zone in the final seconds and left it for Dan Girardi at the point. As Ryan Callahan screened Calgary goaltender Henrik Karlsson, Girardi shot wide of the net, but the puck bounced off the boards behind the goal and to the stick of McDonagh. He wristed the puck into a mostly uncovered goal just before the horn was about to sound.

“I knew there wasn’t a lot of time left, so I just tried to drill it home,” McDonagh said on the MSG Network broadcast after the game.

The Rangers had to kill a Calgary penalty in the final minutes of regulation when Jeff Woywitka, their new defenseman, inadvertently cleared the puck over the glass, resulting in a penalty for delay of game.

Before overtime, the Rangers and Flames scored all their goals in the first period. Marian Gaborik scored his fourth goal of the season to open the scoring. After Jarome Iginla, the Flames’ captain, tied the score, Brandon Prust gave New York a 2-1 lead at 13 minutes 42 seconds of the period.

Henrik Lundqvist showed some rare public frustration with a teammate after Mark Giordano scored on a snap shot soon after Prust’s goal. Just before Giordano prepared to shoot, McDonagh screened his goalie. Lundqvist was late to react on a shot he could not see. Although he was upset after the goal, Lundqvist did not allow Calgary to score for the remainder of regulation. He made 33 saves in the game’s 65 minutes.

The game was a return for Tim Erixon, the Flames’ first-round pick who declined to sign with Calgary, forcing a trade to the Rangers. Playing his fifth N.H.L. game Thursday, the 20-year-old defenseman was confronted by the Calgary news media after the Rangers’ morning workout about why he slighted the franchise.

“I had nothing against Calgary,” Erixon said. “I love the organization, and it’s a great city. Everybody was good to me. It was never about the money. There were just some small issues, and it’s in the past now.”

Asked to detail the issues, he declined to provide further details. “I really don’t think I have to explain myself,” he said. While he was booed by Calgary fans every time he carried the puck, Erixon played well in the game, especially during a pair of shifts in overtime.

While Comeau Sits Again, Isles Lose at Tampa Bay

The Islanders lost to Tampa Bay, 4-1, on Thursday, failing to sustain an offensive attack after dominating the Lightning in a victory in New York a week earlier.

“We didn’t skate in the first period,” Islanders Coach Jack Capuano said after the game. Tampa Bay “set the tone right away. Our line combinations, for whatever reason, couldn’t generate any offense. We weren’t able to establish our forecheck. They had more zone time than we did tonight.”

Although John Tavares created some scoring chances, the Islanders’ first line was held scoreless after dominating performances in the team’s last two games — wins over Tampa Bay and the Rangers. The Islanders’ only goal, by Michael Grabner, came in the third period after they were trailing, 3-0.

Asked about the possibility of altering some of his forward lines, Capuano said: “Yeah, I think there’s a good chance of that happening. Some guys deserve more of an opportunity. But there’s nothing to panic about yet.

The Islanders have a minor lineup controversy. The last two games, the team has scratched Blake Comeau, a third-line wing who scored 24 goals last season. In an early-season stretch in which the Islanders have received little offense outside of their first line, the benching of Comeau is suspicious.

Capuano’s non-responses to requests for an explanation have not clarified the Comeau matter. The coach has said his lineup decision is between him and the player, but Comeau said he has not received an explanation. Capuano is so mum on the issue, he has declined to even rule out that Comeau is being disciplined for an off-ice matter. All the secrecy has done is throw mud on Comeau and limit his trade value. With a surplus of skilled forwards, General Manager Garth Snow could make a move to fill his team’s biggest need, a regular shift defenseman.

The Islanders and Comeau agreed to a one-year, $2.5 million contract this summer before a scheduled arbitration hearing. As Comeau sat in the press box in Tampa Bay, Capuano played the enforcer Trevor Gillies for a total of 3 minutes 14 seconds. If the coaching staff plays him, the Islanders can probably count on an angry and motivated Comeau when they visit the Florida Panthers on Saturday.

Arizona 48, UCLA 12 (final)

Let's hit the local team's high points first:

Tyler Gonzalez, the former soccer manager, made a field goal.

Cool for him.

And ... um ... UCLA was outscored in the second half only 6-5 and won the fourth quarter, 5-3.

Sorry, it's the best we can do.

Arizona, losers of 10 in a row against teams from the Football Bowl Subdivision, thoroughly dominated UCLA on Thursday night in Tucson.

The Wildcats, who came in giving up an average of nearly 38 points and 488 yards a game, held the Bruins to one touchdown and 323 yards.

UCLA wanted to control the ball and the game's tempo with its running game -- keeping Arizona quarterback Nick Foles off the field. But the Bruins failed miserably.

UCLA ran for only 37 yards in 25 carries. Meantime, an Arizona running attack that came in averaging less than 72 yards a game, cranked out 254 yards.

And Foles was Foles. He completed 26 of 39 passes for 291 yards and three first-half touchdowns, all to Juron Criner.

It made a winner of Tim Kish, who was in his first game as Arizona's interim head coach after 36 years of being an assistant.

Arizona is 2-5 overall -- its only other win was against lower-division Northern Arizona -- and 1-4 in Pacific 12 Conference play.

UCLA fell to 3-4, 2-2 in conference.

RELATED:

UCLA vs. Arizona photos

Arizona 48, UCLA 12 (late in the fourth quarter)

Finally, a happy UCLA football story.

NBA and players end labor talks, no new dates scheduled

Despite having a federal mediator on hand, the NBA and the players union broke off labor talks after five hours of negotiations Thursday in New York, and no new meetings are scheduled.

"Ultimately we were unable to bridge the gap that separate the two parties," said Adam Silver, the NBA's deputy commissioner. "We understand the ramifications. ... We're saddened on behalf of the game."

San Antonio Spurs owner Peter Holt said, "Hopefully, we can get back to the [bargaining] table, but certainly a tough day, a very tough day."

The negotiations apparently broke off because of a disagreement over how to split basketball-related income. Silver said the league offered to split BRI 50-50 with the union, but the union said it wanted at least 52.5%.

However, players union head Billy Hunter said they offered to accept a sliding scale of 50% to 53% of basketball revenue, but the owners held out for a strict 50-50 split.

"They thought 50% met their need," Hunter said of the owners. "I think it's all about putting money in their pocket."

In the previous labor deal, players received 57% of BRI, worth about $2.17 billion in total salaries last season. The NBA locked out the players July 1.

Owners and players met with federal mediator George Cohen for 30 hours over three consecutive days this week but could not reach an agreement.

NBA Commissioner David Stern has already canceled the first two weeks of the regular season. "I just assume as time goes on they'll cancel more games," Hunter said.

Stern did not attend Thursday's session because he was sick with the flu.

RELATED:

NBA labor talks now officially day to day

Even if NBA lockout is settled, rescheduling games won't be easy

Q&A: Lakers great Jerry West reveals strained relationships

-- Barry Stavro

Photo: Roger Mason Jr. of the New York Knicks arrives for NBA labor talks Thursday in New York. Credit: Frank Franklin II / Associated Press.

 

MLB Commissioner Bud Selig mum on McCourt case

Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig declined to say Thursday whether he believes Jamie McCourt’s decision to relinquish full control of the Dodgers to her former husband Frank would speed resolution of a dispute that saw Selig take control of the franchise last spring.

“I don’t have a comment on it,” he said. “You know we’re in litigation and I prefer to not comment.”

Selig is expected to testify when hearings over McCourt’s bankruptcy case begin later this month in Delaware.

Selig made his first public appearance at the World Series to help present Boston slugger David Ortiz with the Roberto Clemente Award, baseball's most presitigious public service prize.

Ortiz was recognized for his work with children in the U.S., Dominican Republic and Haiti, including the raising of funds to provide access to critical pediatric care.

Ortiz is the second Red Sox to win the award in as many years, following pitcher Tim Wakefield. Ortiz is also the sixth Latin American player to be honored in the 39 years since the award was named for Clemente, the first Latin American voted into the Hall of Fame.

RELATED:

Jamie McCourt's legacy: one of taking and not giving

Divorce settlement solves one problem for Frank McCourt

Frank and Jamie McCourt reach settlement involving Dodgers

 -- Kevin Baxter, reporting from St. Louis

Photo: Dodgers owner Frank McCourt can now focus his attention on Commissioner Bud Selig and the bankruptcy case. Credit: Los Angeles Times and Associated Press

UCLA vs. Arizona: Live updates from the football game

 

Arizona 7, UCLA 0 (12:43 left in first quarter)

That didn’t take long.

Arizona went 80 yards in eight plays, with Nick Foles throwing a four-yard touchdown pass to Juron Criner. UCLA cornerback Sheldon Price fell down when Criner faked inside, then cut outside.

Arizona running back Daniel Jenkins had a 18-yard run on the first play. Running back Keola Antolin had a 20-yard run on the drive.

On third-and-10 at UCLA’s 30-yard line, Foles completed a 26-yard pass to Dan Buckner, who leaped over Price to make the catch.

Safety Tony Dye, who is thinking about taking a redshirt year this season, did not suit up for Thursday’s game. Dye has missed the last four games because of an inflamed nerve in his neck, which is causing severe pain.

Safety Alex Mascarenas (concussion) and kicker Kip Smith (hip flexor injury) did not suit up for Thursday’s game either.

Dye, Mascarenas and quarterback Richard Brehaut (broken leg) traveled to Tucson on their own to attend the game.

RELATED:

Video: What's on the line for Rick Neuheisel

Beating Arizona could lead to a big payoff for Bruins

UCLA will face a Wildcats team that is in transition

--Chris Foster, reporting from Tucson, Ariz.

Photo: UCLA quarterback Kevin Prince rolls out behind tailback Johnathan Franklin. Credit: Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times

WBC lets Bernard Hopkins keep belt with technical draw ruling

The World Boxing Council on Thursday ruled Chad Dawson did not defeat light-heavyweight champion Bernard Hopkins by technical knockout, as officials working the Saturday fight at Staples Center ruled.

Instead, the WBC ruled the outcome was a technical draw, allowing Hopkins, 46, to keep his belt.

"I'm obviously thrilled by that decision," Hopkins' promoter, Richard Schaefer of Golden Boy Promotions, said. "It's the right decision. Bernard Hopkins did not lose that fight."

Dawson was deemed the winner after Hopkins fell to the canvas and separated his left shoulder in the second round of their title fight. With Hopkins unable to continue, referee Pat Russell named Dawson the winner.

Schaefer has already appealed the outcome to the California State Athletic Commission, and commission executive officer George Dodd said a hearing on the matter is scheduled Dec. 13 in Los Angeles.

Hopkins-Dawson fared poorly at the Staples box office and pitifully on HBO pay-per-view.

And after Dawson promoter Gary Shaw said his fighter had no interest in giving Hopkins a rematch, Schaefer is reciprocating.

Schaefer said he'll meet with Hopkins in the near future and discuss other options.

"Ticket sales and the pay-per-view were poor, and it certainly had nothing to do with Bernard Hopkins," Schaefer said.

Yes, he actually said that.

Schaefer later added Hopkins is "a proven star."

Sorry, a proven star carries a pay-per-view to the 300,000-400,000 range even when he has an obvious victory. Schaefer tried to talk up high HBO ratings and a big live gate in Canada for Hopkins-Jean Pascal earlier this year. Pascal's from Canada.

So now, on the strength of less than two rounds of action and lackluster sales, a fight that was being hyped all last week by Golden Boy and ended in controversy now has no relevance?

OK, we get it.

Maybe that relevance was tarnished by putting the fight on pay-per-view. Staging a bout between a fighter from Philadelphia (Hopkins) and one from Connecticut (Dawson) was also puzzling.

"I don't need a media guy to tell me how to do a pay-per-view," Schaefer said. "We tried to sell the fight. Chad Dawson is not as charismatic as he needs to be to sell a pay-per-view. Our team [knows] how to market a pay-per-view. We know what we're doing."

Fine, but the lack of appeal in Hopkins has something to do with this.

In the meantime, we'll wait for Schaefer to find another opponent to prove his point.

ALSO:

Dan Wheldon's death raises questions about IndyCar racing

Q&A: Lakers great Jerry West reveals strained relationships

Your votes are in: The 20 greatest sports figures in L.A. history

--Lance Pugmire

Photo: Bernard Hopkins grimaces in pain after separating his shoulder during his fight with Chad Dawson. Credit: Jae Hong / Associated Press.

 

 

Al Davis, good or bad for the NFL? Plaschke and Simers discuss

Late Oakland Raiders owner Al Davis, who passed away earlier this month at age 82, was considered a bad guy and a villain by many, yet he was a pioneer who took his team to three championships.

Everything considered, was he good for the league?

Bill Plaschke and T.J. Simers discuss the topic in their video series, L.A. Loud, moderated by Times sports reporter Melissa Rohlin.

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Plaschke-Simers video: Are the Chargers the best NFL team for L.A.?

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--Melissa Rohlin

Funeral services for Dan Wheldon set for Saturday in Florida

Funeral services for Dan Wheldon, the IndyCar driver who was killed Sunday during a crash in Las Vegas, will take place Saturday at 10 a.m. Eastern time in St. Petersburg, Fla.

Wheldon's wife, Susie, issued a statement saying that “although the last few days have been unbearable for our family, the overwhelming love and support we have received are rays of sunshine during these dark days. The outpouring of sympathy and condolences has been so comforting, and I want to thank everyone for their kind notes, letters, gifts and flowers.”

"Dan touched the lives of many people, and I would like to invite those citizens in our community who knew and loved my husband to attend his funeral service. Though we won't be able to fit everyone inside, I know that Dan would have wanted the community to share in the celebration of his life and to grieve his passing. Thank you again. I am forever grateful for your kindness."

IndyCar said the public can send donations to the Dan Wheldon Family Trust, set up for Wheldon's survivors, to: Fifth Third Private Bank, Attn: Dan Wheldon Family Trust, 251 N. Illinois St., Suite 1000, Indianapolis, IN 46204.

Those wishing to send their condolences to the Wheldon family can address letters to: The Wheldons, 600 Koger Blvd. N, Suite 105, St. Petersburg, FL 33702.

MORE:

NASCAR's plans to honor Dan Wheldon

Dan Wheldon's death raises questions about IndyCar racing

— Jim Peltz

Photo: A bottle of milk sits among flowers and mementos at a memorial for Dan Wheldon at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway gate. Credit: Matt Kryger / Associated Press

 

UCLA basketball: Bruins to start season with poll position

With more than three weeks before its season opener, the UCLA men's basketball team has already accomplished something it didn't last season: The Bruins are ranked in the first ESPN/USA Today coaches' poll.

UCLA checked in at No. 20, one of three Pacific 12 Conference schools ranked. Arizona is No. 16 and California is No. 24. The Associated Press has not released its first poll.

The Bruins were not ranked in either poll last season, even during a late-season stretch in which they won 12 of 14 games.

UCLA is scheduled to be one of six ranked teams participating in the Maui Invitational Nov. 21-23. The others are No. 4 Connecticut, No. 6 Duke, No. 9 Memphis, No. 13 Kansas and No. 18 Michigan. Tennessee and Chaminade, a Division II school, complete the field.

UCLA is to open the tournament against Chaminade on Nov. 21. If the Bruins don't win at least two games in the three days, they can say "aloha" to the rankings.

-- Ben Bolch

NASCAR plans car and helmet decals in memory of Dan Wheldon

NASCAR plans to provide its teams with decals honoring the memory of Dan Wheldon at this weekend's NASCAR races at Talladega (Ala.) Superspeedway.

Wheldon, a 33-year-old Englishman who this year won the Indianapolis 500 for the second time, was killed Sunday in a 15-car crash at the Izod IndyCar Series race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

NASCAR said its car and truck teams would place decals on the so-called B post of their vehicles next to the side windows. NASCAR's Camping World Truck Series is racing Saturday and its Sprint Cup Series on Sunday.

The decal design includes a Lionheart Knight image that was a fixture on the back of Wheldon's racing helmets, NASCAR said, adding that it also was providing a version of the decal to NASCAR drivers to place on their helmets this weekend if they desired.

A moment of silence in Wheldon's memory also will be held prior to the invocations before both races this weekend, NASCAR said.

IndyCar plans a public memorial for Wheldon on Sunday in downtown Indianapolis.

— Jim Peltz

Photo: The decal honoring Dan Wheldon that NASCAR plans to provide for teams to place on their cars this weekend at Talladega (Ala.) Superspeedway. Credit: NASCAR

Scott Hall reveals his demons

Former WWE and WCW star Scott Hall discussed his ongoing battle with drugs and alcohol in an E:60 interview that aired on ESPN on Wednesday.

"There's got to be some reason that I'm still here," Hall said. "I should have been dead 100 times. I should have been dead 100 times."

The 52-year-old is on a pacemaker and takes about a dozen pills a day to soothe his anxiety and pain.

"I tell my kids this: 'I can't tell you not to drink and do drugs, they are fun. It's fun. They work,'" Hall said. "But what sucks is when you want to quit and you can't, and pretty soon you alienate or you hurt everyone around you. It's a family disease and then you can't keep a promise to anybody. What sucks the most is when you can't even keep a promise to yourself."

Hall has been arrested several times since his last WWE appearance in 2002. Stephanie McMahon, World Wrestling Entertainment's executive vice president of creative development and operations, said WWE has spent "in the six figures" to help him.

"It's the most amount of money we've spent on anyone," she said. "I just want Scott to get help and to decide for himself that he needs help. It makes me sad. I don't want anybody to pass away prematurely or otherwise really."

In the past few years, an alarming number of wrestlers have died from suicide and overdoses, including Eddie Guerrero (heart complications in 2005) and Chris Benoit (murder-suicide in 2007).

According to a Washington Post story published in 2007, Dave Meltzer, the founder and editor of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter, counted 60 wrestlers who have died since 1997, before age 50.

MORE:

Dan Wheldon's death raises questions about IndyCar racing

Q&A: Lakers great Jerry West reveals strained relationships

-- Melissa Rohlin

London 2012 Olympics diary: gold medallist Steve Ovett in Olympic tickets snub

Odd: Steve Ovett was asked to promote tickets just as long as he didn't ask for any himself (Photo: Rex Features)

While Lord Coe can claim to be the world’s most high-profile ex-athlete, his old running rival Steve Ovett would appear to be the forgotten man.

Ovett, who beat Coe to the 800 metres gold medal at the 1980 Moscow Olympics, was invited earlier this year to take part in the 2012 Olympic ticket launch in London, joining fellow Olympic champions Carl Lewis, Nadia Comaneci and Rebecca Adlington.

Since he now lives in Australia, he was offered free travel and accommodation but was told he would not be paid a fee.

He replied that  he was happy to help out but wondered whether he might be sorted out with a couple of tickets to the 1500 metres final in the Olympic Stadium.

He was shocked to receive a standard letter from the London organising committee acknowledging his ticket application and advising him to apply through the public ballot. Needless to say, he decided to give the ticket launch a miss.

****

World champion Dai Greene may still be short of Kriss Akabusi’s British 400 metres hurdles record but he can at least boast another prestigious mark.

While working at a drive-thru McDonalds restaurant in Llanelli in 2003 he and his co-workers broke a company record for the number of cars served with their orders within an hour.

“We served something like 140 cars and were told it was a record,” says Greene proudly. “You could say I’ve gone from quarter-pounder to quarter-miler.”

****

Worshippers of Zoroastrianism will be reassured that their spiritual needs will be well catered for at London 2012, with organisers promising the most diverse network of multi-faith chaplains ever seen at a Games.

Nearly 200 chaplains are currently being recruited to offer support and counselling in the athletes’ village and venues as well as the main workplace areas for volunteers and employees.

Under the contract with the International Olympic Committee, host cities are required to provide chaplains for the five main religions – Christianity, Islam, Hindusim, Buddhism, Judaism – but London will be going further by offering chaplains in Sikhism, Jainism, Baha’i and Zoroastrianism, which is estimated to have just 200,000 followers  worldwide.

“London is so diverse that for the last four years we have been working with the nine faiths that are usually recognised in the inter-faith network,” says Rev Canon Duncan Green, the London 2012 head of multi-faith services.

While providing specialist support in their own religions, the army of chaplains will be expected to work across different faiths.

Green said: “What we are actually saying is that whatever faith you are, we will cater for you, especially in our workforce because our workforce can be drawn from the UK, which is very ethnically diverse, or from all over the world.”

****

Jemma Simpson, who topped the UK 800 metres rankings in 2010 but was hampered by injury problems this summer, has appealed against the decision of UK Athletics to drop her from the Lottery funding programme.

And quite right, too. Despite her health problems, Simpson still managed to finish third in this year’s domestic rankings and ran under the two-minute barrier, the benchmark for world-class 800m running, on two occasions.

But, bizarrely, she has axed from the World Class Performance Programme just nine months before the start of the Games.

Even stranger, Tasha Danvers, the injury-plagued Olympic 400m hurdles bronze medallist, remains on “podium” funding, despite having not managed a single race in 2011 and just one race in 2010.

World Series: Funny tidbits from around the Web

Be careful what you search for

The St. Louis Cardinals have more hits than the Texas Rangers.

On the Web, that is.

Google analyzed Internet search data about the players, managers and other aspects of the 2011 baseball postseason and it found that if the winner of the World Series was determined by Google searches, the Cardinals will win their 11th title.

Said Google: "Let’s start with the teams themselves. The Cardinals are more popular in search than the Rangers. Perhaps that’s because the Redbirds — not your typical underdogs with 10 World Series titles and 18 pennants — were 10 games back from the NL Wild Card in September, and have since overpowered the regular season’s best Phillies, then their division mates the Brewers to win the NLCS last weekend. The Rangers are in the World Series for the second year in a row, still without a title to their name; yet searches were higher in the last months for the team they defeated in the ALCS, the Detroit Tigers, who saw an even steeper increase in search interest than the Cardinals."

 A friendly wager

Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon and Texas Gov. Rick Perry have made a little bet.

If the Rangers win, Nixon has to give Perry toasted ravioli, gourmet prosciutto salami and other meats and frozen custard from landmark St. Louis establishments and a six-pack of Budweiser.

If the Cardinals triumph, Perry has to send Nixon some barbecue from the famous Salt Lick in Driftwood, Texas, and some Dr Pepper.

MORE:

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Cardinals' bullpen moves also deserve credit for success

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— Melissa Rohlin

Photo: St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols, No. 5, high-fives teammates as he is introduced before the start of Game 1 of the World Series. Credit: Pool

N.F.L. Week 7 Game Probabilities: The Illusion of Power Rankings

Every major sports outlet seems to offer N.F.L. power rankings. I admit my site offers them, too. The game probability model I use for these weekly predictions also ranks teams. I match each team up against a notional league-average opponent at a neutral site, and rank each team according to the resulting game probabilities.

There’s a lot of randomness in football game outcomes, and the model I favor is designed to ignore the noise and focus on the signal. This approach can sometimes produce curious results, as teams with relatively poor records are often ranked well ahead of teams with better records. You might attribute that to the inaccuracies and limitations of statistics used, and that’s partly true. But there’s much more to the discrepancy.

Consider a world in which all N.F.L. teams were perfectly evenly matched. Every game would be little different than the flip of a coin. In this kind of world, there’s still a very good chance there would be at least one 5-1 team and one 1-5 team, despite both being completely equal in team strength. In this hypothetical world, a power ranking based on team record would be an exercise in self-delusion.

The real N.F.L. isn’t as far off from the National Coin Flip League as you might think. Certainly there are better and worse teams, but there is also randomness in game outcomes. So although team records are not complete illusions, they are partially random and often misleading, especially early in the season.

Most power rankings of one kind or another are heavily influenced by team record, and it’s easy to understand why. Even the sharpest and most diligent sports pundits, who have the luxury of watching a wall of simultaneous games on Sunday, can only take in a portion of the action. And they remember even less — their brains aren’t Tivos. The previous weeks’ action is an even fainter memory. And what they do remember is probably biased by the information they have at their fingertips, which is game scores. So it’s not surprising that most power rankings closely match team records.

The illusion of power rankings goes deep. Even if power rankings are not necessarily good predictors of future performance, they can still be sound predictors of final team records and playoff qualification. The reason is the wins-in-hand effect. Season-ending records and playoff qualification is a function of two factors: 1) to-date wins in hand, and 2) future win expectancy. Power rankings that are overly influenced by to-date wins in hand will appear to be far more accurate by the end of the season than they really are. Even objective quantitative rankings that over-fit to the noise of past performance will intuitively seem to be a much better gauge of team strength that they truly are. If you’re grading someone’s rankings according to how well they match final records, you’re letting them cheat. They’ve glimpsed half the answer key from the teacher’s desk.

We already know factor #1. The team standings are there for anyone to see. The tough part is figuring out factor #2, and that’s what the game probabilities below are based on.

Here are your game probabilities for Week 7:

Brian Burke, a former Navy pilot who has taken up the less dangerous hobby of N.F.L. statistical analysis, operates Advanced NFL Stats, a blog about football, math and human behavior.

Week 7 in Fantasy Football: Favorable and Unfavorable Matchups

Jason and Justin Sablich are here to help you with your fantasy football team. The Sablich brothers will provide fantasy football advice throughout the season on this blog and on Twitter (@5thDownFantasy).

If you submit one of the 50 most accurate responses this week, you can win a prize from FantasyPros.com.

”On the seventh week of the third Sabbath in October, Tebow Time finally arrived, and the quarterback was blessed with a favorable matchup, and his owners rejoiced. (Sablich 3:16).”

Tom Brady’s mammoth 42-point day in Week 1 props up the Miami Dolphins’ seventh-best matchup rating, but quarterbacks have hit double-digit touchdowns in three of their last four games against them, including a rushing score to Mark Sanchez last Monday, something Tim Tebow (DEN, vs. MIA) knows a thing or two about. Demaryius Thomas, the first receiver taken in the 2010 draft, will be making his return as well. Tebow is among our favorable matchup picks for Week 7.

Favorable/Unfavorable Quarterback Matchups

Favorable

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) vs. Arizona — Roethlisberger blamed the wind for his ugly second-half performance against Jacksonville, where he went just 1-for-5 for 19 yards and was sacked three times. He won’t be dealing with any adverse weather in Arizona (dome), and he could be getting two of his starting offensive linemen back as well (Kemoeatu and Gilbert). The Cardinals rank in as the 11th best quarterback matchup, allowing 22 fantasy points a game to the position.

Matt Cassel (KC) vs. Oakland – Oddly enough, Brady has been the only quarterback this season who has failed to reach at least 20 standard fantasy points against this unit. Fantasy football has a way of driving you insane sometimes. Anyway, Cassel finally got into a groove before entering his bye week, totaling 5 touchdowns and 517 passing yards in two games prior. Don’t sleep on Cassel this week if you’re looking for some help.

Unfavorable

Philip Rivers (SD) vs. Jets – Rivers wins the worst quarterback matchup award this week, and his opportunities could be limited because the logical plan would be to attack the Jets flimsy run defense. His value would see a decent bump however if his Hall of Fame-worthy tight end Antonia Gates shows up to play this week.

Kevin Kolb (ARZ) vs. Pittsburgh – He was terrible against the Vikings before the bye and things will likely stay that way against a Steelers team allowing just 13 fantasy points a game to guys like him.

Josh Freeman (TB) vs. Chicago – Travel time to London and a date with a Bears team who matched their season-high with five sacks last week should keep Freeman from posting QB1 numbers in Week 7.

Favorable/Unfavorable Running Back Matchups

Favorable

Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) vs. Arizona – Mendenhall silenced his critics last Sunday with a 146-yard breakout game against a tough Jacksonville run defense. Did the return of offensive lineman Max Starks help spark the turnaround, or was it merely coincidence? Despite the fact that his offensive line is dealing with yet another injury (Legursky), chances are good that Mendenhall stays in the red against a Cardinals defense yielding 19 fantasy points a game to the position.

DeMarco Murray (DAL) vs. St. Louis – Murray will split carries with Tashard Choice to some extent now that Felix Jones is expected to miss the next 2-4 weeks, but he figures to see the bulk of the load as he is the better back. Don’t be fooled by the Rams holding Green Bay’s running backs to just 74 yards on the ground in Week 6 because the Packers haven’t run the ball well all season (23rd-ranked rushing offense). This plus-matchup (5th best RB, 22 FPPG) makes Murray a viable flex option this week.

Ryan Mathews (SD) vs. Jets – The Jets allowed the normally anemic Reggie Bush to run for a season high 71 yards on 10 carries Monday night and are considered the fourth best matchup a running back can have through the first six weeks of the season. A heavy dose of Mathews is in order.

Mark Ingram (NO) vs. Indianapolis – Could this be the week you actually get some yardage to go along with those touchdowns? The Colts have surrendered the third most fantasy points to running backs this season, but keep in mind that Chris Ivory could return from the injured list for this game, which would only make the N.F.L.’s most crowded backfield that much cozier. Still, Ingram needs to be in your lineup considering the lopsided matchup.

Unfavorable

Earnest Graham (TB) vs. Chicago – Adrian Peterson entered his meeting with Chicago two weeks ago on a major high-note (122 yards, 3 touchdowns), only to be limited to 39 yards on 12 carries for a 3.3-yard average. Graham is coming off his first 100-yard game since 2008 but he clearly isn’t in the same tier as Peterson and has to make the long journey to London for this one. He’s certainly start-able as an RB2, just don’t get too carried away based on last week’s numbers.

Jackie Battle (KC) vs. Oakland – Over the past two games, the Raiders have given up just 135 rushing yards on 46 attempts to the likes of Arian Foster and the Cleveland Browns’ committee. Battle should see the bulk of the load, making him a decent low-end RB2 start, but we wouldn’t expect a huge day against Oakland.

Montario Hardesty (CLE) vs. Seattle – Assuming that Peyton Hillis is inactive, Hardesty will get the bulk of the work. But those of you who grabbed him from your wire may want to explore other options this week. Hardesty did nothing in relief of Hillis against Oakland, rushing 11 times for 35 yards, and is averaging under four yards a carry this season. Seattle’s seventh-ranked run defense, led by Red Bryant, is allowing just 3.1 yards a carry, making Hardesty a safer flex option if possible.

Steven Jackson (STL) vs. Dallas – A healthy Jackson gets the league’s No. 1 ranked running defense this week and could be without quarterback Sam Bradford, who is nursing a high ankle sprain. The Cowboys have held Jahvid Best and BenJarvus Green-Ellis to seven points or fewer over the last two weeks.

Favorable/Unfavorable Wide Receiver Matchups

Favorable

Marques Colston (NO) vs. Indianapolis — Bengals receiver Jerome Simpson was the latest pass-catcher in the last three games to post at least 100 yards on this secondary. Colston put together his best outing against the Buccaneers in Week 6, earning him fantasy’s No. 1 receiver title in standard scoring leagues for the week. He should be ready for more of the same with the Saints looking to avenge their upset loss to Tampa Bay.

Eric Decker (DEN) vs. Miami – Decker becomes Tebow’s main man thanks to the Brandon Lloyd trade, and he has an outstanding matchup this week as the Dolphins have allowed an opposing team’s No. 1 receiver to score at least 10 fantasy points in each of their five games this season.

Sidney Rice (SEA) vs. Cleveland – The Browns’ shutdown corner Joe Haden is expected to miss another 1-2 weeks, leaving backup Dimitri Patterson to fill the void. Paterson struggled to cover Raiders receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey last week, and isn’t in the same league talent-wise as Haden, which makes Rice an attractive option as a WR2.

Greg Little (CLE) vs. Seattle – Little performed well in his first game as a starting receiver, notching six catches for 72 yards despite stumbling his way out of a sure touchdown in the second quarter. Keep him active against a reeling Seattle secondary (24 FPPG) who just lost their best cover man to season-ending injured reserve (Marcus Trufant).

Unfavorable

Santonio Holmes (NYJ) vs. San Diego – Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Marshall and Brandon Lloyd have managed a measly six-point fantasy average over the last three weeks against this secondary. Holmes may not be able to blame his offensive line after this one.

Larry Fitzgerald (ARZ) vs. Pittsburgh – The Steelers haven’t surrendered a touchdown to a No. 1 wideout since Anquan Boldin in Week 1 and have yet to allow a receiver more than 82 yards in a single game.

Santana Moss (WAS) vs. Carolina – Moss will have to adjust to a new quarterback, which might not totally be a bad thing considering how badly Rex Grossman played in recent games. But teams usually spend most of their Sundays attacking the Panthers’ poor run defense with the ground game and some No. 1 wideouts named Colston, White and Knox averaged just four standard fantasy points over the last three games against them.

Steve Smith (CAR) vs. Washington – Washington has allowed just one receiver to reach paydirt this season (Fitzgerald) and should be wise to how the Atlanta Falcons held Smith to just five catches for 66 yards, thanks to a little something called game film. “It looked like they were rolling coverage to wherever he was,” Panthers Coach Ron Rivera said. “They seemed to have some sort of a bracket where they had one guy inside, one guy outside and one guy over the top and one guy underneath.”

Favorable/Unfavorable Tight End Matchups

Favorable

Lance Kendricks vs. Dallas – Hendricks is coming off his best game of the season (4 receptions, 71 yards) and the matchup is a good one (second best TE, 12 FPPG). But Kendricks could be missing his starting quarterback this week and has been too inconsistent to be more than just a desperation start.

Unfavorable

Jared Cook (TEN) vs. Houston – The Saints’ Jimmy Graham has been the only tight end to have a good fantasy outing against the Texans so far, but he has a way of doing that to everyone, it seems. Houston is the third worst matchup (four FPPG allowed).

Favorable/Unfavorable Defense/Special Teams Matchups

Favorable

Dallas vs. Rams, Baltimore vs. Jaguars, New Orleans vs. Colts, Chicago vs. Bucs

Unfavorable
Atlanta vs. Detroit, Jacksonville vs. Baltimore, Kansas City vs. Oakland, Tennessee vs. Houston, Minnesota vs. Green Bay

Touring the Renovated Madison Square Garden (to Be Continued)

The oddest part of seeing the first part of the three-part renovation of Madison Square Garden is traveling from the familiar lobby (which will not be done until Year 3), up the same old escalators (untouched until at least next year) and through the doors into the new main concourse, and feeling as if you’ve stepped into another building entirely.

That sixth-floor concourse, 50 percent wider and possibly 100 percent brighter than before, is one of a handful of the first-year projects that every fan will see. It will hold a new array of concession stands, some with seating.

The new locker rooms, player workout facilities and coaches’ offices will remain beyond most ticket holders’ views — except for the chosen few with access to the Delta Sky 360 Club, who will watch through a glass wall as the Rangers and Knicks players walk from their locker rooms to the arena — and the 20 event-level suites will be a mystery to everyone but the people who reportedly paid $1 million to occupy them.

Such are the realities of an arena renovation done in three parts, as the Garden has decided to do between seasons.

Still, unveiling the changes in a tour on Wednesday, Garden management proclaimed it is thrilled at what is accomplished so far, with the sixth-floor concourse as the centerpiece but also with an eighth-floor viewing deck and concourse area done a year ahead of schedule.

“What we set out to do is keep the magic of the Garden, the feel of the Garden, but to build a whole new arena,” said Hank Ratner, president of the Madison Square Garden Company.

From inside the arena bowl, the only noticeable difference is the new seats in the lower section, which are larger and cushier and a darker blue color. The upper deck renovations scheduled for next summer will significantly change the feel of the inside because the upper seats will be much closer to the playing surface. After Year 3, two catwalks will hang over the floor as well, with seating and a walkway for fans.

Part 1 required construction crews to work 24 hours a day since the last Rangers and Knicks games last spring, a rotation of three crews a day. The first event in the building will be a boxing match in the Theater on Sunday night. The Rangers’ first home game is next Thursday. The Knicks, of course, are mired in the N.B.A. lockout.

The renovations come with a cost, and not just to the Garden. Knicks’ ticket prices were raised an average of 49 percent and Rangers’ tickets jumped 23 percent. Ratner said that 90 percent of Knicks’ season-ticket holders renewed for this season and that 85 percent of Rangers’ ticket holders did.

Ratner also said the 20 new event-level suites sold out for this season. They are the most unusual of the new features, suites that are underneath the lower level of seats, unseen except for the door that leads out into the seating area.

Metro Pucks: Brodeur Aches, DiPietro Returns and Lundqvist Shines

All three marquee goaltenders of the New York metropolitan area N.H.L. clubs made news on Wednesday.

Martin Brodeur will be sidelined 7-to-10 days as he rehabilitates a shoulder injury he sustained in the Devils’ 2-1 shootout win over Los Angeles on Thursday. According to a statement released by the team, Brodeur will not need surgery. In the absence of the 39-year-old Brodeur, Johan Hedberg — who won in relief in the game against the Kings and beat Nashville on Saturday — will start when the Devils host San Jose at Prudential Center Friday.

Rick DiPietro has resumed practicing with the Islanders and accompanied the team on its two-game trip to Florida. DiPietro sustained a concussion last week when a shot by one of his teammates, Brian Rolston, struck him near the temple and shattered his goalie mask. The Islanders have received strong goaltending from Al Montoya and Evgeni Nabakov, their other two experienced pros on one-way N.H.L. contracts. In the team’s first four games of the regular season, the Islanders (3-1-0) allowed just 6 goals. They play the Lightning in Tampa, Fla., on Thursday and the Panthers in Sunrise, Fla. on Saturday.

If league custom would have allowed it, Henrik Lundqvist would have been named the first, second and third star in the Rangers’ 4-0 victory in Vancouver Tuesday night. Lundqvist made 40 saves for the shutout, keeping the game scoreless through two periods while his teammates were badly out-played by the speedier Canucks. Mike Rupp, Brian Boyle, Ryan McDonagh and Marian Gaborik scored in the third period to give the Rangers (1-1-2) their first victory of the season.

“Henrik gave us an opportunity and we found a way,” Rangers Coach John Tortorella said after the game. “Hank was outstanding. That’s the way it works. I was watching a game earlier today where a team was getting spanked and they ended up winning the hockey game. So hopefully we can at least find something good and try to regain some of our confidence here, with just a little bit more juice. That’s what we’ve been lacking.”

Remembering Kent Hull, a Bills Mainstay

Kent Hull played a significant part in the rebirth of the Bills in the late 1980s. He was one of the N.F.L.’s best centers and most respected leaders. Hull died on Tuesday of intestinal bleeding, according to the coroner’s report. He was 50 years old. A few thoughts:

On Aug. 18, 1986, Jim Kelly, three years after he was drafted, finally became a Buffalo Bill. That same day, with considerably less fanfare, the Bills signed a free agent who became Kelly’s center for the next 11 seasons, Kent Hull. The Bills sent a limousine to the airport for Kelly. They picked Hull up in the equipment van. In their time together, Buffalo won seven division titles, made the playoffs eight times and appeared in a record four consecutive Super Bowls.

Hull was a three-year starter on Mississippi State teams that went to two bowl games under Emory Bellard. He once said that his greatest football memory, even including the Super Bowls, was of the Bulldogs’ 6-3 victory over top-ranked Alabama and Bear Bryant in 1980.

Hull began his professional career in 1983 with the only team that drafted him: the New Jersey Generals of the U.S.F.L. For three seasons he blocked for quarterbacks Brian Sipe and Doug Flutie and running backs Maurice Carthon and Herschel Walker. Those years were vital in Hull’s development. He often cited the example set, on and off the field, by the veterans who had played in the N.F.L., like Jim LeClair and Dave Lapham.

When the U.S.F.L. folded, Hull drew interest from at least 10 N.F.L. teams. He chose the Bills because their starting center, Tim Vogler, had just seriously injured his knee. “I told my wife that I was going somewhere where there was a need for me and not necessarily for the money,” Hull recalled years later. “…I picked Buffalo just to show what I could do. It was the best decision I ever made in my life.” (Jim Gehman, “Then Levy Said to Kelly: The Best Buffalo Bills Stories Ever Told”, Triumph Books, 2008)

Hull was so sure he would be cut about a week or two into his first training camp that he left his wife back home in Mississippi. After just a few practices, however, he was Buffalo’s starting center.

Hull went on to play 170 regular-season games, all with the Bills, including 108 in a row from 1986 to 1992, and in 19 postseason games. He made first-team All-Pro in 1990 and 1991, and was elected to the Pro Bowl in 1988, 1989, and 1990. Hull was a captain in his last seven seasons and was inducted to the Wall of Fame at Ralph Wilson Stadium in Buffalo in 2002.

At 6-5 and about 280 pounds, and with long arms, Hull was big and strong enough to usually handle the big nose tackles without help. That enabled the guards, who didn’t have to execute the double-team block, to get a direct run at the linebackers at the second level. Hull had good footwork and excellent balance.

By the late 1980s, Hull joined tackles Will Wolford and Howard Ballard and guards Jim Ritcher, John Davis, and later, Glenn Parker, to form one of the league’s best offensive lines. The Bills led the N.F.L. in scoring in 1990 and in rushing yards in 1991 and 1992, and finished in the top 10 in rushing yards every year from 1988 to 1996.

Hull was tough, dependable and consistent. Perhaps his best asset, though, was his football intelligence. The fast paced, no-huddle offense the Bills ran in those years required the center to get over the ball quickly and immediately recognize the defensive front. Then, he had to make the proper line call, changing the blocking pattern for the run or the pass protection scheme if necessary. This was all done in just a few seconds, and it got more difficult as the zone blitzes became prevalent in the early ’90s. Steve Tasker elaborates:

If Jim (Kelly) was the star of the no-huddle, center Kent Hull was its unsung hero. Besides identifying defensive formations and making the appropriate calls for the offensive line, Kent would also shake off certain calls Jim might make. It was kind of like a catcher advising a pitcher about what he should throw. I remember several occasions when Jim would call a play at the line, and Kent would turn his head around and give Jim this ‘you can’t run this play, you idiot’ look, and Jim would change the call. (Steve Tasker and Scott Pitoniak, “Steve Tasker’s Tales From the Buffalo Bills”, Sports Publishing, 2006)

Hull was part of a core group of leaders on the Bills that included Kelly, Darryl Talley, Cornelius Bennett and Bruce Smith. He was well liked and highly respected by his teammates and coaches. He was also a frequent go-to guy for the news media.

After turning down an opportunity to make more money on the open market as a free agent in 1994, Hull returned to the Bills for his final two seasons. In late December, 1996, he retired to the family farm in Greenwood, Miss.

Few players seemed to appreciate the opportunity to play pro football more than Kent Hull, and he never lost that sense of gratitude. He understood, almost immediately, how much an N.F.L. franchise can mean to its community:

I can remember the very first game, we played the Jets, in 1986, the home opener, and people had been talking about getting twenty thousand, thirty thousand people in the stands, and shoot, we had eighty thousand… That city had just gone through a terrible ordeal where Bethlehem Steel had laid off thirty thousand people in one year… The best way to rally everybody is to find some simple thing everyone enjoys, and they all come together. And that happened to be Jim Kelly and the Buffalo Bills. (Adam Lazarus, “Super Bowl Monday: The New York Giants, the Buffalo Bills, and Super Bowl XXV”, Taylor Trade Publishing, 2011)

In the locker room in Tampa Stadium after losing to the Giants in Super Bowl 25, Hull watched as Scott Norwood, still in his uniform, patiently answered every question and blamed no one but himself. As he was about to leave, Hull went over to Norwood and told him that if everyone, including himself, had done their jobs just a little better, that field-goal attempt would’ve been from a lot closer than 47 yards. Hull then waited for Norwood to shower and dress and, finally, the two teammates walked out together, into the night.

Andy Barall writes about pro football history for The Fifth Down.