Andy Benoit is previewing all 32 N.F.L. teams. He concludes his analysis of the N.F.C. North with a look at the Vikings. He previously wrote about the Packers, the Bears and the Lions.
They missed it. Their window of opportunity. It’s closed, sealed shut. The window started shutting right after the 2009 N.F.C. title game. The Vikings brought back Brett Favre in 2010 and tried to wedge through the quickly closing gap but wound up getting stuck. It was embarrassing. During the process, Brad Childress was fired, Randy Moss made a donkey of himself (and of General Manager Rick Spielman for having traded a third-round pick for him), the offensive line self-destructed, the defense washed up and, for good measure, the politics surrounding owner Zygi Wilf’s pursuit of a new stadium became messier (a deal will probably be reached, but it is still uncertain at this point).
And so the Vikings enter 2011 not as a team on the decline, but as a team already deep in an abyss. Fortunately, they either wittingly or unwittingly have started laying some of the ground work for the long rebuilding process ahead. The coaching staff has been constructed, with defensive-minded Leslie Frazier the new coach and Bill Musgrave overseeing what will now be a more run-oriented offense – an approach that goes against the grain of today’s N.F.L. but, in Minnesota’s case, is exactly the right one considering it has the game’s best running back in Adrian Peterson. Spielman has already drafted a long-term quarterback in first-rounder Christian Ponder. The 23-year-old Ponder, from Florida State, will have a year to learn the ropes from the comfort of a backup position.
The fact that the Vikings traded for Donovan McNabb suggests they might be planning on making one last run in 2011. If so, they’re destined for disappointment. In the past two years, the 34-year-old McNabb has been dumped by Andy Reid and Mike Shanahan, two of the most respected offensive minds of this generation. His overall value, according to the trade, is that of two sixth-round picks. If any other team around the league thought McNabb was worth more than that, the Redskins would have traded him there.
Even if McNabb rebounds from an awful ’10 campaign, he is still inheriting a six-win team that has said goodbye to top receiving weapon Sidney Rice, immovable nose tackle Pat Williams, rock-solid linebacker Ben Leber and stalwart defensive end Ray Edwards. More damaging than any of those losses is the retirement (an actual retirement this time!….we think) of You Know Who. Rough as last season was and distracting as Favre became, the Vikings are going to sorely miss their “intrepid part-time leader.” What’s about to be discovered is that Favre camouflaged a heck of a lot more problems than he caused.
Offense
With Brett Favre gone, Minnesota’s weaknesses will rise to the surface. It’s not that Favre is that much better than Donovan McNabb, it’s that his style of play was particularly accommodating. Unless McNabb can consistently zing lasers off a one-step drop (something that’s hard to picture the methodical veteran doing), Minnesota’s offensive line will be exposed as one of, if not the, worst in the N.F.L.
People don’t realize how bad this front five has been in recent years. They’ve been misled by left guard Steve Hutchinson’s Pro Bowl reputation and left tackle Bryant McKinnie’s inflated salary. But those masks have been pulled back. At 33, Hutchinson, who’s had a great career, lacks raw power and has had his mobility decline enough that he’s no longer featured as a pull-blocker in the run game. McKinnie, pound for pound the softest player in the league, was finally released after showing up to training camp predictably out of shape.
In McKinnie’s place is ex-Colt Charlie Johnson, who has trouble sustaining pass blocks late in downs against quality rushers and is best suited for utility backup duties. The tackle opposite Johnson is Phil Loadholt, a second-round pick in ’09 who badly needs a drill sergeant to get in his face and remind him that he’s a long-armed 343-pounder. Perhaps new line coach Jeff Davidson (formerly the offensive coordinator in Carolina) can flip that switch.
Inside, right guard Anthony Herrera is modestly nimble but, over all, as average as a Tuesday afternoon. He’s also questionable coming off reconstructive knee surgery, which could leave the Vikings counting on hefty but unrefined second-year man Chris DeGeare.
Center John Sullivan is the weakest link of the bunch. His inability to hold ground against bull-rushers or, like the rest of this unit, get to the second level in run-blocking compromises a lot of what the Vikings can do with their front. New coordinator Bill Musgrave’s answer to this unathletic unit will be to put more bodies on the front line and hope that sheer power can carry the day. Musgrave might use sloppy utility backup Ryan Cook as a sixth offensive lineman, but more often, expect to see the Vikings line up with two tight ends. Visanthe Shiancoe can’t handle opposing defensive ends one-on-one, but he’s not a bad in-line blocker in help situations. Second-round rookie Kyle Rudolph figures to supplant Shiancoe at some point. Both are more receiving oriented than blocking oriented, so don’t be surprised if versatile H-backs Jim Kleinsasser and Jeff Dugan are regularly used as additional motion blockers. That said, backs and tight ends are expected to have a greater short-area pass-catching impact in Musgrave’s new offense.
The brilliance of Adrian Peterson is another reason people have overlooked the ineptitude of Minnesota’s offensive line. When a player finishes in the top six in rushing four straight years, it’s natural to assume that he has good blockers in front of him. In truth, lately Peterson has been productive despite his offensive line. He is an uncanny creator with unparalleled explosiveness that allows him to gain yards after contact.
Peterson improved his patience and timing in 2010, though Musgrave would be wise to keep fullback Ryan D’Imperio off the field and out of the way. Peterson’s incredible first step and fervid downhill nature make him best suited for single back formations, where he doesn’t have to worry about setting up his blocks and having a fullback clog his alleys.
Toby Gerhardt is a No. 2 running back with a No. 1 style. This is to say he’s generally a high volume between-the-tackles ballcarrier who, like Peterson, is not particularly adroit in the passing game. He’ll still get his touches, but the Vikings would be wise to also carve out a niche for smallish slasher Lorenzo Booker.
Whoever the third-down back is could prove important as a dumpoff outlet given the lack of resources at wide receiver. Percy Harvin should be an X-factor in the slot. Instead, he’s the No. 1. Because he needs space in order to be fully effective, it’s dicey counting on Harvin against press coverage outside. He reportedly hasn’t had a migraine in over seven months, which shines a more hopeful light on his durability for 2011, but it’s still too early for the Vikings to uncross their fingers here.
The starting receiver slot across from Harvin is likely to be a revolving door this season. One year after dropping off the face of the earth, Bernard Berrian could return to the first unit. Does that mean he’ll suddenly be able to separate against aggressive corners? He couldn’t last year. A more viable option would probably be the inexplosive but dependable Greg Camarillo. Or even new methodical possession target Michael Jenkins.
As for Donovan McNabb, accuracy and consistency have become major bugaboos. And, if you ask the Redskins, so has learning new systems. He’s had an impressive career and deserves at least some benefit of the doubt, but there’s little to no evidence suggesting he’ll be able to carry a group in an unfamiliar offense.
Defense
Not to keep piling on, but the Vikings could have a fairly porous defense in 2011. The loss of nose tackle Pat Williams is huge. At 38, his best years were behind him. Still, few players in the league could hold ground against double teams the way he did. Replacement Remi Ayodele is an underrated plugger who can play with good leverage, but he doesn’t have the athletic suddenness to win the battle of initial contact on a regular basis.
Ayodele at least won’t have to face as many double teams as Pat Williams did, as opponents will now focus even more on defensive tackle Kevin Williams. That’s fine – the six-time Pro Bowler is a dominant all-around force who will find ways to impact the action no matter what.
The same used to be said about Jared Allen, but the eighth-year defensive end has gotten quieter lately. Allen had 11 sacks in 2010, but 4.5 of them were unimpressive takedowns against feeble opponents from the Bears and the Cardinals. Far too often Allen vanished from games without even drawing extra blockers. His effort isn’t an issue – it’s more methodology and execution.
The Vikings are dependent on Allen regaining his elite stature; Leslie Frazier subscribes to a predominant Cover 2 philosophy that relies on pressure from the front four. So it’s a little curious the Vikings chose to keep Brian Robison instead of Ray Edwards. There’s been talk that it’s “Robison’s time,” but if Robison were truly better than Edwards, it wouldn’t have taken four years for his time to come. Robison has impressive quickness, but Edwards was solid in all facets and will be missed. Robison’s promotion also dings the defensive line’s depth; it’s up to gifted but immature Everson Griffen to help fill the second-string void at end.
The decline of the defensive line means the eradication of the linebackers’ luxurious free-range in run defense. E.J. Henderson and Chad Greenway will have to shed more blocks in 2011 than they’ve shed the past five years combined. Henderson’s a smart enough reader to put himself in advantageous positions against blocks. Greenway’s a clever, athletic all-around player and should have no trouble adjusting to the changes as well. He’s moving to the strong side, which means E.J.’s younger brother, Erin Henderson, will get a chance to start on the weak side. Jasper Brinkley, who filled in at middle linebacker when E.J. Henderson broke his leg in 2009, may also get a look on the weak side, though he has a tendency to play too laterally and might not possess the fluidity to consistently excel in the flats. He’s also reportedly struggled in coverage during camp.
In that case, Brinkley seemingly meets all the requirements for starting at safety for this team. It’s more than a little concerning that the Vikings are entrusting their centerfield responsibilities to Tyrell Johnson and Husain Abdullah. Johnson, a second-round pick in ’09, had been vastly disappointing before missing the last nine games of 2010 with a knee injury. Abdullah is too sluggish to consistently get outside the numbers in help defense. Problem is, the only backups are ’09 seventh-round pick Jamarca Sanford and sixth-round rookie Mistral Raymond.
The safety’s limitations only tether Frazier tighter to two deep shell coverages. That means either “Cover 2” or “two-man.” Two-man, which is essentially the corners locking up man-to-man on the receivers with each safety patrolling one half of the field over the top, is only possible if starters Cedric Griffin and Antoine Winfield stay healthy. The Vikings don’t have other corners capable of shadowing N.F.L. wideouts for all 60 minutes.
Health has lately eluded the extra-physical Griffin. He tore his left ACL in the ’09 N.F.C. title game, came back in Week 3 in ’10, only to tear his right ACL two weeks later. Remarkably, Griffin is recovered once again and will be starting across from feisty veteran Winfield in Week 1; whether he has his old movement dexterity remains to be seen.
Either way, he should be a better option than Asher Allen, who was seemingly every quarterback’s favorite player last season. Allen struggled against quick slants and with man-to-man assignments on critical downs. He’ll now play behind last year’s second-round pick, Chris Cook, who was up-and-down last season before going on I.R. with a torn meniscus in December. Cook will play outside in nickel, with the sure-tackling Winfield being a multi-tool weapon in the slot. Some have speculated that Allen might also fall behind ’10 practice squad member Marcus Sherels.
Special Teams
Ryan Longwell has been a top-five kicker for most of his 15-year career. He’s only missed three total field goals over the past two seasons. Chris Kluwe is nearly as good a punter as he is a tweeter, which is a compliment. If the Vikings decide that speedy Percy Harvin is too valuable to use in the return game, they’ll most likely look to Greg Camarillo or Lorenzo Booker.
Bottom Line
The only clear strength on this team is the Adrian Peterson-led rushing attack. Everything else has been downgraded over the last two years.
Predicted Finish: 4th N.F.C. North
Andy Benoit is the founder of NFLTouchdown.com and covers the N.F.L. for CBSsports.com. He can be reached at andy.benoit@NFLtouchdown.com.
