London may be counting down to 2012 but the International Olympic Committee is already looking ahead to who will host the 2020 Summer Games, and in Lausanne they may not like what they see.
With the deadline for candidate cities looming on September 1, the IOC is looking at a thin field to follow Rio 2016.
So far the absentees are more striking than the confirmed bidders. Rome, Madrid, Tokyo and Istanbul are all declared, with the Qatar Olympic Committee actively considering this week whether to declare Doha for a shot at adding the Olympics to the 2022 World Cup.
In the last week however the United States Olympic Committee has said it will not be putting forward a candidate, a significant blow to the IOC as it battles to improve sour relations with its most lucrative market.
There will be no African bid either, with the South African government making clear in May that it did not consider a Durban Olympic bid a worthwhile use of resources so soon after the huge expense of the 2010 World Cup.
Paris will also not bid so soon after the abject humiliation of the 2018 Winter Games in which Annency received just seven votes. The French will not court a fourth successive rejection for their capital until 2024 at the earliest.
All this suggests that the prevailing trend of major sports events going to emerging markets may continue when the IOC votes in 2013.
Of the declared candidates Istanbul looks the most interesting. The Turkish Olympic Committee is interviewing international PR advisors this week to find someone who can help them deliver a bid that will doubtless focus on the romantic appeal of an Olympics in a city where Europe and Asia meet.
The prospect of a first ‘Muslim Olympics’ will play well with the pioneering spirits in the IOC, and might make an appealing legacy for president Jacques Rogge, who will stand down after the 2020 vote in 2013.
The realists will be more concerned about the massive infrastructure challenges of a games in Istanbul. It is beguiling and endlessly fascinating city but its not the easiest to get around.
The most controversy will arise if Doha does declare, and sources this week suggested that it has not been ruled out by the ruling Al Thani family.
Qatar’s successful World Cup bid was and remains hugely contentious, in part because of the soaring summer temperatures that Fifa’s own technical inspectors ruled could cause health problems.
Doha’s 2016 Olympic bid was struck out on the grounds that their plan to shift the Games to October to avoid extreme heat was unacceptable. Before being eliminated however Doha had scored higher than eventual winners Rio in the IOC’s technical evaluation.
This time round Qatar has been talking to the IOC and sports federations to establish how big a barrier the climate will be, and those conversations will influence their decision.
If they do declare it will pose a major challenge to the IOC much-vaunted bidding rules. Insiders have always suggested that the 2016 exclusion was a relief to the IOC because it prevented Qatar’s huge wealth encouraging a spending ‘arms race’ that might have tested the boundaries of the rules.
As the massive investment in the 2022 World Cup campaign proved, Qatar’s greatest asset is cash and it would make them formidable runners if and when they do declare for 2020.
By contrast the European candidates look solid but not especially inspiring, and both will have to persuade the IOC to return to Europe just eight years after London.
Madrid is bidding for a third successive summer Games having finished third for 2012 and second for 2016. Rome is hoping to host for the second time. Both are on the fringes of the Eurozone crisis, something their rivals will be sure to play on.
Tokyo meanwhile is casting its bid as a way of recovering from the devastating tsunami earlier this year, but 2020 may be too soon for the IOC to return to Asia after Pyeongchang 2018.
No comments:
Post a Comment