Rugby World Cup 2011: Close encounters of the quarter-final kind… with wins for NZ, England, SA and Ireland

Twelve wannabe pretenders to the crown are already snugly tucked up in bed at home – and four more will have joined them come Sunday night. But who will they be?

At face value two of the weekend’s quarter-finals look to be safe bets, and two are absolute humdingers that only a fool would re-mortgage the house for to lay a bet.

But all eight teams, some more convincingly than others, have deserved their place in the knockout stage – and you just have to think back to Cardiff at RWC 2007 that no quarter-final is signed and sealed before the kick-off.

And while purely of academic interest, how different might the draw have looked if the outcomes of a few close games had been reversed… if Argentina had held on to their lead against England, if Scotland had not choked against the Pumas, if the world rankings had held sway between Australia and Ireland?? But that’s how this wonderful game goes, and now we’re guaranteed a southern v northern hemisphere final.

So here some thoughts and predictions… and would like to hear your take on the weekend.

New Zealand v Argentina One of the two ‘bankers’. Even without Dan Carter, even with Richie McCaw carrying an injury, the All Blacks should have far too much class for the enthusiastic but ultimately limited Pumas. There should be some parity among the tight five, the All Black loosies should secure plenty of fast ball, and the backs will have a field day. Game over. New Zealand 32 Argentina 15.

England v France The game between the two teams who’ve made more off-field headlines than set the world alight with their play. The drinking, kissing, lewd dwarf-tossers versus the bitching in-fighters intent on starting a new French revolution. Martin Johnson’s team have hardly been electrifying, squeaking past only reasonable opposition in Argentina and Scotland.

But so be it, they key is they stayed composed and won – and nothing else matters. France, in turn, have been a disgrace, and are the only team to have lost two matches and still qualified for the play-offs.

All signs point to a convincing win for England – and deservedly so. But this – need we any reminding? – is France. Tempestuous, arrogant mavericks that can lose by 50 today and beat the same opposition by two tomorrow. Supporters will hope, opponents will fear, that they have their customary 80 minutes of sublime RWC magic in them, when every bounce of the ball goes their way.

Just don’t see that happening. This France team make their 2010 Football World Cup counterparts look smart and disciplined, while England have enough grunt upfront to silence the calls of Allez Bleus. England 28 France 17.

Australia v South Africa Compelling, fascinating, thrilling… almost an injustice that the world No 2 and 3 teams should meet so early, and a match that won’t be settled until the final 10 minutes. If the Wallaby loose forwards compete like they did against New Zealand in Brisbane in August, and free up their hard-running backs, they could sneak this one. But the Springboks have shown in close matches against Wales and Samoa that they know how to hold their nerve. South Africa 21 Australia 18.

Ireland v Wales To neutrals surely the match-up of the weekend. Ireland, so brilliant against Australia, have gone about the business with understated grit and determination, throwing the pre-RWC form book right out of the window. A true all-round side, boasting presence upfront, a magnificent back-row and hard-running backs. And there’s the rub… with slightly different emphasis, we could say the same about Wales, who’ve done well to overcome that heart-breaking defeat in their opener to the Springboks.

I’ve tossed my lucky 50p coin untold times – and still it’s even between tails and heads. A draw perhaps at full-time with the tie settled in extra time? Virtually impossible to call in on-field skill, so I’ll predict it on perceived mental strength. Ireland, I think, just have that bit more self-belief than Wales, so it’s Brian O’Driscoll’s team by a whisker. Ireland 24 Wales 22.

Prepared to put a tenner on each of the outcomes. How do you see it?

This blog is supported by Maximuscle, suppliers of sports nutrition to Courtney Lawes, Joe Simpson and the Welsh Rugby Team.

Rugby World Cup 2011: Predictions – Too little too late for Scotland, Samoa and Italy in battle of bonus points

Take your pick of headlines for this weekend’s rugby… Sweet and sour success for Scotland; Big hits but little luck for Samoa; Pasta and basta for Italy.

All three are tantalisingly close to the play-offs, but for different reasons they’ll all fall short of a quarter-final place.

Welcome to the start of the real world cup, a newspaper headline in Auckland read today, and they’re right. Come Sunday night and there will be elation and depression in almost equal measure. It’s the weekend of the bonus points.

Amazingly at this late stage in the pool games, only New Zealand are absolutely guaranteed a quarter-final berth irrespective of what happens in Pool A. Canada could still pip France to the runners-up place, but only a double-deluded dunce would see them beat the All Blacks with a bonus point in the process and France lose heavily to Tonga. So that’s settled.

Then it becomes interesting. Pools B and D will require bonus points to upset the current standings. Argentina will no doubt smash Georgia, so Scotland need not only beat old foe England at Eden Park on Saturday, but do so with four tries and deny England a losing bonus point.

A haggis or two too far? Absolutely – as Scottish fans here in Auckland readily admit. And yet, will this required hell-for-leather approach liberate the Scots for once and see them throw all caution to the wind?

I’ll predict Scotland to actually score a try or two – despite their lame duck performances at RWC 2011 so far – but to fall short in the end (and possibly even get beaten by England at the death as the clock ticks down and the dream dies fast). Scotland 21 England 19.

Likewise in Pool D, where the current table topper could still depart home on Monday. On most days I’d say smash-and-run Samoa have four tries in them, but they’ve looked hesitant at RWC2011 while South Africa are showing sharp and ruthless signs. Wales will do the business comfortably against Fiji on Sunday, so it’s goodbye Samoa at North Harbour on Friday. South Africa 37 Samoa 22.

The biggest and most intriguing battle looms in Pool C, where unbeaten Ireland could still exit early. And Italy don’t even need to score four tries to make that happen – though they’ll have to deny Declan Kidney’s team a losing bonus point.

But that’s poppycock. Italy's forwards are mostly awesome, but their backs often make a plate of spaghetti look orderly and organised. So Ireland 28 Italy 13.

Fair calls or ramblings of a madman as we start this weekend of shock and awe? Your calls please…

This blog is supported by Maximuscle, suppliers of Creatine to Courtney Lawes, Joe Simpson and the Welsh Rugby Team.

Rugby World Cup 2011: a mixed bag of good and bad, of deserving winners and desperately unlucky losers

What an opening weekend! After a fairly meek and predictable start to proceedings on Friday, the tension and intensity just got better and better, and it's fair to say there were some very deserved winners and some very unlucky losers.

A quick 'soundbyte' on each of the big teams – who's starting to look good and who's not – and then let me have your thoughts please.

New Zealand Pretty flash in the first half against a very plucky Tonga, pretty flat and sloppy in the second – something they simply can't afford to be against better teams. Still, will be happy to have had a proper workout and to have survived opening night without major injuries. Will need to step up seriously.

Scotland So nearly terribly embarrassed. Came into this tournament very confident after a good run of warm-ups, but will have feet very firmly on the ground again. Play like this against England and Argentina, and you'll have an early taste of Scottish sleet back home.

England Disjointed and slightly backwards for most of the match, but ultimately had the nous and seized the moment to deny Argentina. All credit to them for that. They have the bloody-mindedness to compete with the top boys, but still looked flat on attack and discipline could easily trip them up. Were deservedly on the receiving end of the penalty count and Courtney Lawes' penchant for being the enforcer may yet cost them dearly. Good enough for the quarter-finals, but then?

Argentina Brave, brilliant and battered – were in serious danger of clearing their bench by half-time – but continued to show magnificent commitment. Yes, profited from Jonny Wilkinson having a horror show with the boot, but also squandered a good few kicks themselves. Possible progress now depends on how well they mentally deal with this heartbreaking loss – and whether New Zealand has enough plasters to tape their broken bodies together. Alarm bells whispering.

 France Another embarrassment was on the cards but hey, this is France. Highly unlikely to lose any sleep over this. A typical French shoulder shrug, a nonchalant lift of the eyebrows, and it's on to the next match. Deep down Les Bleus will know that they'll have one of those magic days when everything clicks. Will hope it comes against New Zealand on Sep 24 or in the quarter-final. Jury still out.

Australia A bit flat in first half and well matched by the Italians, but take the weekend's points for a brilliant, decisive and clinical second half. Have the most reason of all to feel very optimistic.

Italy So much promise in first half, then fell off tackles and had no answer to the Wallabies' power and precision. Likely to have felt pretty miserable immediately after their match, but would have perked up on watching their most likely contenders for runner-up spot in the pool, Ireland, struggle against inferior opposition. Like Silvio Berlusconi, a dead man walking or will they rise up?

Ireland See the surprise  on the Irish faces at the end? They'd almost forgotten what it felt like to win. And let's be honest here, on this showing they're likely to forget it soon again. It simply beats me how so many fabulous players and individuals can be so average as a unit. Their showdown with Italy will be massive.

South Africa Would be harsh to call them the weekend's most undeserving winners, but very tempting to do just that. Looked tired, harassed and there for the taking – then showed just enough game management to prevail. No matter how ugly or how close, first blood and four points to the Springboks. Deep down, though, they'll know that big trouble could yet loom further down the line.

Wales Brilliant for the most part, clueless when it mattered most. And I'm not talking only about conceding that try, that contentious penalty or James Hook missing his last penalty attempt, but when, on the attack and only a few minutes to go, they were so desperate and so frenzied to attack that they failed to commit enough players to the breakdown and simply got bulldozed off the ball. Suddenly the Boks had the ball in their hands, the bit between their teeth and the points in the bag. Wales have worked hard on most aspects of the game and their fitness – now they must very quickly learn the meaning of composure. Their progress – or not – depends entirely on how they mentally respond to this gutting, galling defeat.

 As for the others, hats off to Fiji for an entertaining win, and all the other teams for entertaining, plucky defeats. Opening weekend is over and nobody's been disgraced. My only disappointment of the tournament so far is the seemingly big blocks of empty seats at some of the games (even some of the bigger ones). What's going on there?

Your take on the weekend's action please! And I'll name the winner of the Maximuscle gear and products tomorrow. 

This blog is supported by Maximuscle, the sports nutrition choice of Courtney Lawes, Joe Simpson and the Welsh team. For more information on how Maximuscle is the Team Behind the Team go to www.maximuscle.com/tbtt