Plate Contests, Neutral Refs, Overpriced Tickets and Openside Flankers

Week six here in New Zealand and it's a twiddling thumbs moment as we wind down from the quarter-finals and wait for the high-octane weekend ahead. So, a few thoughts:

 

1 ) Why isn't there a plate competition for the best losers in the pool stages? A football World Cup gathers pace in the knockout stages: RWC has no option but to take a breather because of the battering players take.  As the teams begin to rev up here in Auckland, wouldn't it be a great focal point to be heading off tonight to, say, Hamilton for the semi-final plate game between Samoa and Japan, then to Rotorua tomorrow for Fiji against Canada? Money, as ever, is the root reason why not. I say there has to be a way round it. These countries crave exposure and competition. This is a way to get both.

2) Discussion point. Would it matter if Steve Walsh, a Kiwi by birth, an Aussie by trade now, were to referee a final between the All Blacks and whomever? I say not. Just as Geoff Coooke once said that he wouldn't mind if Clive Norling did every England-Wales game, so the same is true now. Give the best man the whistle. As for Walsh, well what a comeback. He's been criticised, and rightly so, but he's served his time and is the best whistler here.

3 ) Memo to RWC 2015. Don't price every bugger out of the market. It's galling to see empty seats as there were at the quarter-finals. The host union can only gets its quid back through tickets sales. That's why the tickets available were at around £200. It will be even more for Wales-France on Saturday. Tickets are still available. Better to reduce revenue to increase atmosphere and spectacle.

4) This has been the tournament of the no.7s. David Pocock's display for the Wallabies against South Africa was the best individual performance of any player in any position. Brussow's injury might have helped, and, by the by, would Ireland have beaten Australia if Pocock had played that day? I only ask. Sean O'Brien v Pocock would have been worth the admission price alone. Greatest ever no 7 ? Great man of Samoa and New Zealand, Michael Jones. Unless you think differently, of course.

Rugby World Cup 2011: "Result! I desperately wanted England to lose to France"

Now, just before my many critics vent their spleen in rants about me being anti-English, anti-northern hemisphere, anti-Johnson, whatever, take note of this: the headline is not me saying it.

No, the headline is the sentiment of some mates – all of them England born and bred, all of them regular visitors to Twickenham, all of them with a red-rosed white shirt in their closets. In short, all true-blue England fans.

It may sound bizarre for England fans to say that, but there's method in their reasoning… That an early exit at RWC 2011 will possibly and hopefully prevent an even bigger embarrassment on home soil at RWC 2015. Or put another way, that defeat to France would stun England into making wholesale changes – in management, in player selection, in playing style.

As one mate put it: "If England go on to reach the final in New Zealand – even if they lose –  Martin Johnson and the RFU will simply believe that all is okay with English rugby. And we'll forever have an impotent backline and stick to players well past their best and tactics good enough to beat mediocre opposition but inferior to the top sides."

And let's face it, France were far from great in Wellington. Committed, determined and workmanlike with the occasional flash of brilliance – but England lost this match as much as Les Bleus won it.

It will be a bitter pill for England fans to swallow. But maybe, just maybe, my England mates are right… this bitter pill could well prove to have a sugar coating.

As for the first quarter-final, wow! Wales were simply sensational. Direct, incisive running combined with tackling of an intensity not often seen, made them full value for the semi-finals – and final if they repeat this power show.

In a strange way, defeat for Ireland could have a similar clear-out effect to that of England. And they should start with old man Ronan O'Gara … two terrible knock-ons with Ireland hard on attack and two terribly overcooked kicks for touch took the sting out of Ireland's running – and Wales needed no second invitation. 

Do you agree with my mates? What was really wrong with England and Ireland on the day? Let me know!

This blog is supported by Maximuscle, the sports nutrition choice of Courtney Lawes, Joe Simpson and the Welsh team. For more information on how Maximuscle is the Team Behind the Team go to www.maximuscle.com/tbtt

Rugby World Cup 2011: Close encounters of the quarter-final kind… with wins for NZ, England, SA and Ireland

Twelve wannabe pretenders to the crown are already snugly tucked up in bed at home – and four more will have joined them come Sunday night. But who will they be?

At face value two of the weekend’s quarter-finals look to be safe bets, and two are absolute humdingers that only a fool would re-mortgage the house for to lay a bet.

But all eight teams, some more convincingly than others, have deserved their place in the knockout stage – and you just have to think back to Cardiff at RWC 2007 that no quarter-final is signed and sealed before the kick-off.

And while purely of academic interest, how different might the draw have looked if the outcomes of a few close games had been reversed… if Argentina had held on to their lead against England, if Scotland had not choked against the Pumas, if the world rankings had held sway between Australia and Ireland?? But that’s how this wonderful game goes, and now we’re guaranteed a southern v northern hemisphere final.

So here some thoughts and predictions… and would like to hear your take on the weekend.

New Zealand v Argentina One of the two ‘bankers’. Even without Dan Carter, even with Richie McCaw carrying an injury, the All Blacks should have far too much class for the enthusiastic but ultimately limited Pumas. There should be some parity among the tight five, the All Black loosies should secure plenty of fast ball, and the backs will have a field day. Game over. New Zealand 32 Argentina 15.

England v France The game between the two teams who’ve made more off-field headlines than set the world alight with their play. The drinking, kissing, lewd dwarf-tossers versus the bitching in-fighters intent on starting a new French revolution. Martin Johnson’s team have hardly been electrifying, squeaking past only reasonable opposition in Argentina and Scotland.

But so be it, they key is they stayed composed and won – and nothing else matters. France, in turn, have been a disgrace, and are the only team to have lost two matches and still qualified for the play-offs.

All signs point to a convincing win for England – and deservedly so. But this – need we any reminding? – is France. Tempestuous, arrogant mavericks that can lose by 50 today and beat the same opposition by two tomorrow. Supporters will hope, opponents will fear, that they have their customary 80 minutes of sublime RWC magic in them, when every bounce of the ball goes their way.

Just don’t see that happening. This France team make their 2010 Football World Cup counterparts look smart and disciplined, while England have enough grunt upfront to silence the calls of Allez Bleus. England 28 France 17.

Australia v South Africa Compelling, fascinating, thrilling… almost an injustice that the world No 2 and 3 teams should meet so early, and a match that won’t be settled until the final 10 minutes. If the Wallaby loose forwards compete like they did against New Zealand in Brisbane in August, and free up their hard-running backs, they could sneak this one. But the Springboks have shown in close matches against Wales and Samoa that they know how to hold their nerve. South Africa 21 Australia 18.

Ireland v Wales To neutrals surely the match-up of the weekend. Ireland, so brilliant against Australia, have gone about the business with understated grit and determination, throwing the pre-RWC form book right out of the window. A true all-round side, boasting presence upfront, a magnificent back-row and hard-running backs. And there’s the rub… with slightly different emphasis, we could say the same about Wales, who’ve done well to overcome that heart-breaking defeat in their opener to the Springboks.

I’ve tossed my lucky 50p coin untold times – and still it’s even between tails and heads. A draw perhaps at full-time with the tie settled in extra time? Virtually impossible to call in on-field skill, so I’ll predict it on perceived mental strength. Ireland, I think, just have that bit more self-belief than Wales, so it’s Brian O’Driscoll’s team by a whisker. Ireland 24 Wales 22.

Prepared to put a tenner on each of the outcomes. How do you see it?

This blog is supported by Maximuscle, suppliers of sports nutrition to Courtney Lawes, Joe Simpson and the Welsh Rugby Team.

Rugby World Cup 2011: Predictions – Too little too late for Scotland, Samoa and Italy in battle of bonus points

Take your pick of headlines for this weekend’s rugby… Sweet and sour success for Scotland; Big hits but little luck for Samoa; Pasta and basta for Italy.

All three are tantalisingly close to the play-offs, but for different reasons they’ll all fall short of a quarter-final place.

Welcome to the start of the real world cup, a newspaper headline in Auckland read today, and they’re right. Come Sunday night and there will be elation and depression in almost equal measure. It’s the weekend of the bonus points.

Amazingly at this late stage in the pool games, only New Zealand are absolutely guaranteed a quarter-final berth irrespective of what happens in Pool A. Canada could still pip France to the runners-up place, but only a double-deluded dunce would see them beat the All Blacks with a bonus point in the process and France lose heavily to Tonga. So that’s settled.

Then it becomes interesting. Pools B and D will require bonus points to upset the current standings. Argentina will no doubt smash Georgia, so Scotland need not only beat old foe England at Eden Park on Saturday, but do so with four tries and deny England a losing bonus point.

A haggis or two too far? Absolutely – as Scottish fans here in Auckland readily admit. And yet, will this required hell-for-leather approach liberate the Scots for once and see them throw all caution to the wind?

I’ll predict Scotland to actually score a try or two – despite their lame duck performances at RWC 2011 so far – but to fall short in the end (and possibly even get beaten by England at the death as the clock ticks down and the dream dies fast). Scotland 21 England 19.

Likewise in Pool D, where the current table topper could still depart home on Monday. On most days I’d say smash-and-run Samoa have four tries in them, but they’ve looked hesitant at RWC2011 while South Africa are showing sharp and ruthless signs. Wales will do the business comfortably against Fiji on Sunday, so it’s goodbye Samoa at North Harbour on Friday. South Africa 37 Samoa 22.

The biggest and most intriguing battle looms in Pool C, where unbeaten Ireland could still exit early. And Italy don’t even need to score four tries to make that happen – though they’ll have to deny Declan Kidney’s team a losing bonus point.

But that’s poppycock. Italy's forwards are mostly awesome, but their backs often make a plate of spaghetti look orderly and organised. So Ireland 28 Italy 13.

Fair calls or ramblings of a madman as we start this weekend of shock and awe? Your calls please…

This blog is supported by Maximuscle, suppliers of Creatine to Courtney Lawes, Joe Simpson and the Welsh Rugby Team.

Rugby World Cup 2011: Oh ye of little faith, I always knew Ireland would beat Australia

So, who was that fool who predicted Ireland would possibly not progress to the quarter-finals? Oh, yes, that would be me. Apologies to every lover of Guinness. Ireland were simply magnificent, and humble pie will accompany my pint of the dark stuff tonight.

Man meets boy: the immense Sean O'Brien hands off James O'Connor

What a momentous day it's been in New Zealand. Not just for the six teams involved – as South Africa and Argentina thumped Fiji and Romania respectively – but  for the tournament as a whole.

I think it's fair to say that after the first week, only Australia could really, honestly say that they were happy with their performance. Bang! A week later, and they'll have the most jitters of all. The Irish outplayed them in just about every facet and turned the form book on its head.

In 80 minutes Ireland showed exatly what other teams have to do to beat Australia (and it's not rocket science). Crush their scrum and commit ample bodies to the breakdown to keep Will Genia and Quade Cooper on the backfoot. The rest of the backline is then largely impotent.

And let's not have whingeing from Australians about referee Bryce Lawrence, who rightly penalised the weaker scrum for losing the plot and the contest.

The result will not only have thrilled every Irishman and woman across the world, but Kiwis too. Not only to see their neighbours and most recent conquerers come well unstuck, but also because it sets up – barring further upsets – a quarter-final between Australia and South Africa. One big beast will be out of the way come Oct 9.

Your thoughts please!

This blog is supported by Maximuscle, suppliers of creatine to Courtney Lawes, Joe Simpson and the Welsh team Team.

Rugby World Cup 2011: a mixed bag of good and bad, of deserving winners and desperately unlucky losers

What an opening weekend! After a fairly meek and predictable start to proceedings on Friday, the tension and intensity just got better and better, and it's fair to say there were some very deserved winners and some very unlucky losers.

A quick 'soundbyte' on each of the big teams – who's starting to look good and who's not – and then let me have your thoughts please.

New Zealand Pretty flash in the first half against a very plucky Tonga, pretty flat and sloppy in the second – something they simply can't afford to be against better teams. Still, will be happy to have had a proper workout and to have survived opening night without major injuries. Will need to step up seriously.

Scotland So nearly terribly embarrassed. Came into this tournament very confident after a good run of warm-ups, but will have feet very firmly on the ground again. Play like this against England and Argentina, and you'll have an early taste of Scottish sleet back home.

England Disjointed and slightly backwards for most of the match, but ultimately had the nous and seized the moment to deny Argentina. All credit to them for that. They have the bloody-mindedness to compete with the top boys, but still looked flat on attack and discipline could easily trip them up. Were deservedly on the receiving end of the penalty count and Courtney Lawes' penchant for being the enforcer may yet cost them dearly. Good enough for the quarter-finals, but then?

Argentina Brave, brilliant and battered – were in serious danger of clearing their bench by half-time – but continued to show magnificent commitment. Yes, profited from Jonny Wilkinson having a horror show with the boot, but also squandered a good few kicks themselves. Possible progress now depends on how well they mentally deal with this heartbreaking loss – and whether New Zealand has enough plasters to tape their broken bodies together. Alarm bells whispering.

 France Another embarrassment was on the cards but hey, this is France. Highly unlikely to lose any sleep over this. A typical French shoulder shrug, a nonchalant lift of the eyebrows, and it's on to the next match. Deep down Les Bleus will know that they'll have one of those magic days when everything clicks. Will hope it comes against New Zealand on Sep 24 or in the quarter-final. Jury still out.

Australia A bit flat in first half and well matched by the Italians, but take the weekend's points for a brilliant, decisive and clinical second half. Have the most reason of all to feel very optimistic.

Italy So much promise in first half, then fell off tackles and had no answer to the Wallabies' power and precision. Likely to have felt pretty miserable immediately after their match, but would have perked up on watching their most likely contenders for runner-up spot in the pool, Ireland, struggle against inferior opposition. Like Silvio Berlusconi, a dead man walking or will they rise up?

Ireland See the surprise  on the Irish faces at the end? They'd almost forgotten what it felt like to win. And let's be honest here, on this showing they're likely to forget it soon again. It simply beats me how so many fabulous players and individuals can be so average as a unit. Their showdown with Italy will be massive.

South Africa Would be harsh to call them the weekend's most undeserving winners, but very tempting to do just that. Looked tired, harassed and there for the taking – then showed just enough game management to prevail. No matter how ugly or how close, first blood and four points to the Springboks. Deep down, though, they'll know that big trouble could yet loom further down the line.

Wales Brilliant for the most part, clueless when it mattered most. And I'm not talking only about conceding that try, that contentious penalty or James Hook missing his last penalty attempt, but when, on the attack and only a few minutes to go, they were so desperate and so frenzied to attack that they failed to commit enough players to the breakdown and simply got bulldozed off the ball. Suddenly the Boks had the ball in their hands, the bit between their teeth and the points in the bag. Wales have worked hard on most aspects of the game and their fitness – now they must very quickly learn the meaning of composure. Their progress – or not – depends entirely on how they mentally respond to this gutting, galling defeat.

 As for the others, hats off to Fiji for an entertaining win, and all the other teams for entertaining, plucky defeats. Opening weekend is over and nobody's been disgraced. My only disappointment of the tournament so far is the seemingly big blocks of empty seats at some of the games (even some of the bigger ones). What's going on there?

Your take on the weekend's action please! And I'll name the winner of the Maximuscle gear and products tomorrow. 

This blog is supported by Maximuscle, the sports nutrition choice of Courtney Lawes, Joe Simpson and the Welsh team. For more information on how Maximuscle is the Team Behind the Team go to www.maximuscle.com/tbtt

Rugby World Cup 2011: My predictions – Scotland to beat England, an early exit for Ireland, Wales to top Pool D

Under 24 hours to go to Rugby World Cup 2011 kick-off (at the time of writing), so time to spell out how I think the pools will develop. Is this what I hope will happen, or think will occur? Not entirely sure myself – probably a mix of voices from the heart and the head – but no matter, here goes.

And please let me know how and where you agree or disagree.

Pool A

Very much a two-horse race, with the only real significant match on September 24 between New Zealand and their nemesis, France. On paper you'd have to say the All Blacks, but then you think back to 1999 and 2007, and suddenly it's one of THE biggest pool matches imaginable.

Can Les Bleus upset the apple cart true and proper by beating the hosts? Both will obviously want to win the group – thereby, on paper at least, securing an 'easier' quarter-final – but Pool B is wide open and coming second in Pool A might ultimately not be a massive price to pay.

Being the hosts has huge pros and cons for NZ – possibly unbearable pressure and expectations, but also masses of support. The current All Blacks seem to be open and relaxed, mingling with the public and coming across confident. Compare that with the siege mentality of previous campaigns (and failures), and they may just be on to a good thing here.

Prediction 1 NZ, 2 France.

Pool B

One of two 'pools of death'. And gut feel says this is so tight to call that bonus points – for scoring four tries or more or losing by seven points or under – may just come heavily into play.

Yes, Argentina seem not to be the force they were in 2007, but I think they may still be good enough to trouble their opponents. Fence-sitting? No way! England to beat the Pumas by a comfortable few, before backs-against-the-wall Argentina rumble Scotland.

All which sets up the group perfectly for a killer clash at Eden Park on October 1. And in an ugly, messy, attritional slug-fest among the two packs, I predict the Scots to squeeze home by a point or two (all courtesy of kicks). And so we're back in bonus-points territory and possibly points difference.

Prediction 1 England, 2 Scotland.

Pool C

The most predictable in terms of who'll finish on top. Can't see any of the four teams remotely threatening Australia. The Wallabies are also in the comfortable position of having played their two 'big' pool opponents by September 17, allowing some rest for key players in preparation for the play-offs.

Who'll finish second is the exciting bit. On paper it would seem to be Ireland by a country mile – but Italy will fancy their chances given Ireland's lacklustre warm-ups and the narrow 11-13 defeat in Rome in February. Having both lost to the Aussies come October 2, I think the pressure will simply mess with the Irish players' heads. Their dismal RWC record will play on their minds – and continue.

Prediction 1 Australia, 2 Italy.

Pool D

The most physical, closely contested group of the lot – and the other one in which bonus points could determine the final standings. Spare a thought for Namibia, who will be lambs to the slaughter in every match. And much as I like the Fijian way of playing – and despite their heroics last year – this year they'll end fourth in the pool, leaving it to South Africa, Wales and Samoa to slug it out.

This may sound like a caveat, but much depends on whether Wales learn to play the full 80 minutes or stick to exerting themselves only in the last 40, which, against the Boks and Samoa, could mean both games are lost for them by half-time.

Much has been made of Samoa's win over Australia in July, but it was against a mix-and-match team, so I'm going to discount that slightly. Ultimately, then, I somehow believe Wales will win both matches while South Africa's rather boring but efficient kick-and-chase game will stifle Samoa (of course, and I expect some biffo from both, this match could be won by the team who earns the fewer yellow/red cards).

Prediction 1 Wales, 2 South Africa.

Now kick that ball in anger!

Finally, you can still enter the competition to win Maximuscle gear and products by predicting the England v Argentina and Wales v South Africa scores (see the previous blog).

And very finally, my predictions for the big opening matches: NZ 35 Tonga 13, England 22 Argentina 10, Wales 20 South Africa 17. Now let the games begin.

Follow me on Twitter @lookdownsouth

This blog is supported by Maximuscle, the sports nutrition choice of Courtney Lawes, Joe Simpson and the Welsh team. For more information on how Maximuscle is the Team Behind the Team, go to www.maximuscle.com/tbtt

Rugby World Cup 2011: My predictions – Scotland to beat England, an early exit for Ireland, Wales to top Pool C

Under 24 hours to go to Rugby World Cup 2011 kick-off (at the time of writing), so time to spell out how I think the pools will develop. Is this what I hope will happen, or think will occur? Not entirely sure myself – probably a mix of voices from the heart and the head – but no matter, here goes.

And please let me know how and where you agree or disagree.

Pool A

Very much a two-horse race, with the only real significant match on September 24 between New Zealand and their nemesis, France. On paper you'd have to say the All Blacks, but then you think back to 1999 and 2007, and suddenly it's one of THE biggest pool matches imaginable.

Can Les Bleus upset the apple cart true and proper by beating the hosts? Both will obviously want to win the group – thereby, on paper at least, securing an 'easier' quarter-final – but Pool B is wide open and coming second in Pool A might ultimately not be a massive price to pay.

Being the hosts has huge pros and cons for NZ – possibly unbearable pressure and expectations, but also masses of support. The current All Blacks seem to be open and relaxed, mingling with the public and coming across confident. Compare that with the siege mentality of previous campaigns (and failures), and they may just be on to a good thing here.

Prediction 1 NZ, 2 France.

Pool B

One of two 'pools of death'. And gut feel says this is so tight to call that bonus points – for scoring four tries or more or losing by seven points or under – may just come heavily into play.

Yes, Argentina seem not to be the force they were in 2007, but I think they may still be good enough to trouble their opponents. Fence-sitting? No way! England to beat the Pumas by a comfortable few, before backs-against-the-wall Argentina rumble Scotland.

All which sets up the group perfectly for a killer clash at Eden Park on October 1. And in an ugly, messy, attritional slug-fest among the two packs, I predict the Scots to squeeze home by a point or two (all courtesy of kicks). And so we're back in bonus-points territory and possibly points difference.

Prediction 1 England, 2 Scotland.

Pool C

The most predictable in terms of who'll finish on top. Can't see any of the four teams remotely threatening Australia. The Wallabies are also in the comfortable position of having played their two 'big' pool opponents by September 17, allowing some rest for key players in preparation for the play-offs.

Who'll finish second is the exciting bit. On paper it would seem to be Ireland by a country mile – but Italy will fancy their chances given Ireland's lacklustre warm-ups and the narrow 11-13 defeat in Rome in February. Having both lost to the Aussies come October 2, I think the pressure will simply mess with the Irish players' heads. Their dismal RWC record will play on their minds – and continue.

Prediction 1 Australia, 2 Italy.

Pool D

The most physical, closely contested group of the lot – and the other one in which bonus points could determine the final standings. Spare a thought for Namibia, who will be lambs to the slaughter in every match. And much as I like the Fijian way of playing – and despite their heroics last year – this year they'll end fourth in the pool, leaving it to South Africa, Wales and Samoa to slug it out.

This may sound like a caveat, but much depends on whether Wales learn to play the full 80 minutes or stick to exerting themselves only in the last 40, which, against the Boks and Samoa, could mean both games are lost for them by half-time.

Much has been made of Samoa's win over Australia in July, but it was against a mix-and-match team, so I'm going to discount that slightly. Ultimately, then, I somehow believe Wales will win both matches while South Africa's rather boring but efficient kick-and-chase game will stifle Samoa (of course, and I expect some biffo from both, this match could be won by the team who earns the fewer yellow/red cards).

Prediction 1 Wales, 2 South Africa.

Now kick that ball in anger!

Finally, you can still enter the competition to win Maximuscle gear and products by predicting the England v Argentina and Wales v South Africa scores (see the previous blog).

And very finally, my predictions for the big opening matches: NZ 35 Tonga 13, England 22 Argentina 10, Wales 20 South Africa 17. Now let the games begin.

Follow me on Twitter @lookdownsouth

This blog is supported by Maximuscle, the sports nutrition choice of Courtney Lawes, Joe Simpson and the Welsh team. For more information on how Maximuscle is the Team Behind the Team, go to www.maximuscle.com/tbtt

RWC 2011: a tournament too long? Predict the scores and win sports gear and products

At last! After waiting almost four years we can finally say: the Rugby World Cup starts this week! It seems like an eternity since the lights dimmed at Stade de France in 2007 with the announcer booming: “See you in New Zealand in 2011.”

Simply can’t wait for the action to start on Friday – and looking closely at the schedule, there’s not a week that doesn’t offer some cracking, intriguing match-ups. That said, there are also games that seem ideal to combine with doing the laundry or replacing expired light bulbs; some of them just leave me cold.

Which makes me wonder – just as in 2007 – is six weeks plus just too long for this tournament? Yes, I know it’s not tennis and teams can’t smash and bash the hell out of each other every second day. And yes, I agree with calls that the game must become truly global and that the minnows need exposure against the big teams to learn.

But we’re bound to see some of the minors conceding 80, 90 or even 100 ponts – and how much do they really learn from that? All while a ‘classic’ like Georgia v Romania is likely to appeal to people in, er, Georgia and Romania, but probably not to that many neutrals – especially not at 7.30am UK time.

So what’s the solution? Let only the top eight or 10-ranked teams contest the RWC? Or have a separate ‘world championship’ for the lower-ranked teams? Or what about a hybrid? The top 10 in the world qualify automatically, while teams ranked 11-20 – irrespective what continent they come from – play a tournament a month or two before the next RWC, with the top two progressing to the real deal. That way, if nothing else, you find two relatively in-form minnows on the big stage – more likely to be truly competitive than hopelessly weak teams who happened to be best of a bad lot in their region at the time of qualifying. Would really like to hear your suggestions on this problem.

And so on to this weekend – and your chance to win choice Maximuscle gear and products. Maximuscle fuel England’s Courtney Lawes and Joe Simpson, and the Welsh rugby team, and they’ll be sponsoring this blog during RWC 2011 to get me out to New Zealand, to report on some matches, drink beer with the fans (from both hemispheres!) and hopefully let readers who can’t make it out there, share more in the excitement.

The competition is simple: predict the scores in England v Argentina, and Wales v South Africa, by leaving a comment on this blog. Winner is person to correctly predict both outcomes with the smallest total points difference in the two matches. So get your thinking caps on. Entries close 9am UK time on Saturday, September 10.

Coming up on Thursday: I do what only a fool will do, predict how the pools will pan out and who the likely quarter-finalists will be. And I’ll be asking you to also get off the fence! 

This blog is supported by Maximuscle, the sports nutrition choice of Courtney Lawes, Joe Simpson and the Welsh Rugby Team. For information on how Maximuscle is the Team Behind the Team, visit www.maximuscle.com/tbtt

Rugby World Cup 2011: All bets are off as jitters grip New Zealand and hope fills England and Australia

Crikey! Just as I thought it was becoming easier to predict the likely finalists for RWC 2011, along comes this weekend to blow many hopes, beliefs and fallacies out of the water. Only a fool would part with big money to bet on a winner (even though, as we all know, pre-Cup form does not necessarily mean much come the play-offs).

Take New Zealand. They would have woken up Sunday morning as the ‘land of the long black cloud’. Their early-season form has deserted them, and while their defeat to South Africa could be written off as their B team, their Tri-Nations loss to Australia in Brisbane is likely to cause serious self-doubt.

Entirely outplayed for the first 40 minutes – the Wallabies’ commitment was brilliant – the All Blacks should not be flattered by the final score. Many of their top players looked tired and well off the pace, and Graham Henry and his wise men have a massive task on their hands to turn their belief around.

They may just have to clutch at straws – and there’s a good one in looking at Tri-Nations history. The All Blacks won the tournament in 1999, 2003 and 2007 – only to fall flat at the World Cup. This year they won’t go into the tournament as champions, red-hot favourites or with bags of complacency. All good omens?

As for the Aussies, full marks to you. Your tight five were ok, your back-row magnificent and your backs created and exploited gaps, along with stellar defence. I suspect England – who think they have the Wallabies’ number after two successive victories – will face a possible clash with great unease.

So what about England? I make the victory over Ireland their best performance of the year. Lots still to work on, sure, but there was steel and grit in their game. Ireland stepped up considerably from their three-week horror show, but still England kept them try-less while scoring  two themselves.

Even the midfield – generally acknowledged to be England’s area of weakness – looked more than solid. I’m still not sure they have what it takes to smoke the Southern Hemisphere big guns, but on this showing they’ll fairly easily top their group and approach the knockout stage with great belief. And, as omens and portents go, England won the World Cup on the back of winning the Six Nations in 2003.

All bets are off and my only prediction will be that Romania or Namibia are not going to win this.

And then some random remarks after Saturday – and please let me know how you saw the weekend unfold:

* What a shocker for back-row forwards. Ireland’s David Wallace ruled out of RWC and Jamie Heaslip injured, New Zealand’s Kieran Read and Adam Thomson in serious RWC doubt, England’s Nick Easter and Tom Wood sidelined for Dublin but seemingly okay to travel to New Zealand and Hendre Fourie did not last long. Who’d want to be a 6, 7 or 8 given the ferocity at the breakdown nowadays?

* After keeping a close eye on Wayne Barnes (Aus-NZ) and Nigel Owens (Ire-Eng) and their colleagues, I have this horrible fear that match officials – rather than a brilliant kick or try – could overly influence tight matches in New Zealand. Both were guilty of substantial inconsistency at times and getting a few key calls incorrect. Hope they all have a proper workshop before September 9!

* Martin Johnson may just need to have a quiet word with his team over discipline (and not for the first time). Chris Ashton sin-binned (admittedly paying the price for team-mates’ repeated offending), Courtney Lawes’ stupid barge and Manu Tuilagi’s take on David Wallace – even if missed by the touch judge – was a shoulder charge rather than a legal arm-binding tackle (not that this ws the cause of Wallace’s injury). Any of them could be very costly in a close affair. 

* Why do British commentators struggle with pronouncing Samoan names? It’s Manu Tuilagi, not Tuilangi. Just as it was Tana Umaga, not Umanga. Easy to practise … the ‘a’ is pronounced similar to when you’re at the doctor, have a wooden spatula pressing down your tongue and have to say ‘aaahhh’.

* And finally, while we’re on commentators, thank God this World Cup is not hosted by Australia. That way the whole world bar the Aussies will be spared having to listen to Oz commentary. They can be funny and witty at times, but they’re blinkered and one-eyed to the extreme. Their non-stop carping at real and perceived All Black transgressions was already irritating, but then to stay mum when the Wallabies do exactly the same is simply biased. Lord, how I still miss Bill McLaren.

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