Chargers (4-5) at Bears (6-3)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Bears by 3.5.
Lovie Smith does not get the credit he deserves. His coaching staff is filled with temperamental geniuses who have impulse control issues. The offense is loaded with divas: when Roy Williams comes across as normal, you know you are dealing with some Timothy Leary-level team chemistry. On paper, Smith’s blitzed-up take on the stodgy Cover-2 defense, built around the talents of 30-something linebackers, looks about as dangerous as a Toyota Celica with mag wheels. This is a team that strives to beat opponents with punt returns, for heaven’s sake. Yet Smith has coaxed winning records out of this collection of disparate parts and quarrelsome personalities four times in the last six years, and he currently has a team that was universally overlooked in the preseason in the thick of the wild-card race.
Norv Turner has also mixed playoff runs with .500 seasons during his Chargers tenure, but he has done so under much more favorable conditions: his division is much softer, he has an indisputable franchise quarterback and he does not have to hold the reins on assistants like Mike Martz. Turner needs everything to break right to win, and this year nothing has. The Chargers’ offensive line has been torn apart by injuries, with Marcus McNeill (neck) and Louis Vasquez (foot) unlikely to play Sunday and the All-Pro Kris Dielman (concussion) out for the year. Philip Rivers’ mysterious slump is not so mysterious when his blockers are Brandyn Dombrowski and Scott Mruczkowski and his receivers include castoffs like Patrick Crayton. Turner cannot win when his quarterback is throwing interceptions, whereas Smith is only now learning what it is like to win otherwise: that is as clear a contrast as you need between these two teams. Pick: Bears.
Eagles (3-6) at Giants (6-3)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Line: Giants by 4.5.
Andy Reid’s Traveling Cautionary Tale Tent Revival has arrived in town, and we are celebrating with a trivia quiz! Match the following Eagles Dream Teamers — a.) Nnamdi Asomugha, b.) Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, c.) Steve Smith, d.) Ronnie Brown, e.) Vince Young, f.) Jason Babin — with their unique accomplishments this season:
1.) I chase receivers with the enthusiasm of a teenager walking to the principal’s office after a food fight. 2.) My quarterback rating of 0.0 is lower than the punter’s, and I may be starting on Sunday! 3.) I line up offsides when not inexplicably covering Cardinals receivers not named Larry Fitzgerald. 4.) I am among the league leaders with nine penalties this season. 5.) I crumple untouched after catches in the open field as if the yellow television first-down line is real and made of plutonium. 6.) I throw the ball straight into the air while being tackled at the goal line.
There is also an essay: Explain how Andy Reid can simultaneously justify a 42-16 pass-run ratio when Michael Vick (questionable) has broken ribs, and grow testy when his reasoning is questioned.
The answers: 1-b, 2-e, 3-a, 4-f, 5-c, 6-d. If you need reasons why Giants General Manager Jerry Reese did not dive headfirst into the free-agent pool this off-season, here are six of them. The Reid essay has no right answer.
Standard warning: the Eagles, like poorly-constructed playground equipment, can still be dangerous. Pick: Giants.
Buccaneers (4-5) at Packers (9-0)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Packers by 14.
Like a flabby Hope Diamond, Albert Haynesworth is a fascinating, oversized trinket that brings nothing but misery to anyone foolish enough to acquire him. The Buccaneers signed Haynesworth and immediately inserted him into their defensive line; the results were 185 yards rushing allowed and a 37-9 loss. The Patriots, meanwhile, improved as soon as they rid themselves of Haynesworth. That is not scientific proof that Haynesworth is cursed, but perhaps he should be placed in the Smithsonian until there are further studies.
Aaron Rodgers has thrown just 18 incomplete passes in the last three games. One of those passes was a spike to stop the clock, three were throws out of bounds and four were dropped by open receivers. Count the drops as completions and take away the spike, and Rodgers’ completion percentage in the last three weeks is 84.7 percent. Some football stat-heads will tell you that completion percentage is a meaningless metric. That is true about 84.7 percent of the time. Pick: Packers.
Titans (5-4) at Falcons (5-4)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Falcons by 6.
Advanced statistical analysis reveals that going for it on fourth-and-1 from your own 29-yard line in overtime results in a 99.9 percent chance of a full week of second guessing. Mike Smith had probability on his side when he made his doomed decision against the Saints. He also had the league’s worst punter (Matt Bosher) facing one of the league’s best return men (Darren Sproles), so he may have feared a rare-but-traumatizing Dodge-to-DeSean punting gaffe when he made the call. Mathematicians call it the Black Swan Theory, because rookie punters can make experienced coaches wish they were watching Natalie Portman movies instead of football games.
The Titans and the Falcons are now second-place teams behind flawed, injury-plagued divisional front-runners who have byes. As compelling as this game may be, the real action is in the training and meeting rooms of the Saints and the Texans, where Sean Payton tries to cope with injuries to himself and others, and Matt Leinart acquaints himself with the children’s menu of the Texans’ playbook (“I can’t decide between the Donald Duck Zone Stretch to Arian Foster and the Andy Panda iso to Ben Tate!”) Pick: Falcons.
Bills (5-4) at Dolphins (2-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Dolphins by 2.
Having unsuccessfully game-planned for one opponent per week for most of the season, Dolphins coaches are preparing for two: the Bills on Sunday, and the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. “It’s tough because coaches can’t keep it to one game at a time,” Coach Tony Sparano said. “You can shrink it to the players. The only thing they’ll know is Buffalo and getting ready for Buffalo.” Shrink the Dolphins’ game plan too far, and it collapses into a Brandon Marshall Singularity from which only dropped passes can escape.
The Dolphins have gotten help in their back-to-back victories from an unlikely source: Reggie Bush, perpetual disappointment and current front-runner for Best Supporting Actor in a Reality Television Divorce Fiasco. “Something’s gotten into him,” tackle Vernon Carey said of Bush, who has run for 242 yards and 3 touchdowns in three weeks. Work ethic? Dignity? The realization that his name comes up more often on E! than ESPN has probably put a little spring in his step. Pick: Bills.
Cowboys (5-4) at Redskins (3-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Cowboys by 7.5.
The rookie sensation DeMarco Murray has rushed for 601 yards in the last four games, but that does not mean he has earned a starting job. Felix Jones may soon return from an ankle injury, and Cowboys Coach Jerry Jones (if he is not going to pretend otherwise then neither are we) gave conflicting reports during the week about how the carries will be divided when Felix Jones returns. “I haven’t seen enough of DeMarco,” Jones said, though he later explained that Murray would still get the bulk of the carries. That makes Felix Jones the nominal starter, an important position held by his predecessors, Julius Jones and Marion Barber. The nominal starter’s job is to not be as good as the backup, yet still lay claim to the starting role, allowing Jerry Jones to sound sagacious and quasi-mysterious when discussing his roster decisions during news conferences.
The twice-annual Cowboys-Redskins games serve the important purpose of making the Cowboys organization appear functional and sane by comparison. Pick: Cowboys.
Raiders (5-4) at Vikings (2-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Raiders by 1.
Both the Raiders rookie receiver Denarius Moore and the Vikings rookie tight end Kyle Rudolph made spectacular one-handed catches in prime-time games last week. While Rudolph has been a bright spot for the Vikings, Moore has kept the Raiders in the playoff picture by giving Carson Palmer exactly what he needs, on and off the field. “Denarius Moore doesn’t say anything,” Palmer told The San Francisco Chronicle. Having spent a year living through “The T.Ocho Show,” Palmer deserves a little therapeutic silence. Pick: Raiders.
Panthers (2-7) at Lions (6-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Lions by 7.
Lions Coach Jim Schwartz said that the 22-m.p.h. winds at Soldier Field, not a finger injury, hampered quarterback Matthew Stafford in the Lions’ 37-13 loss to the Bears. “The wind affected his actual throwing,” Schwartz said. “I don’t think it had anything to do with the actual finger.” Stafford’s virtual throwing and hypothetical finger were not affected. Schwartz also said that his team “didn’t respond well” to turnovers. Considering how often their games end in brawls, it is not clear if the Lions respond well to anything. Pick: Lions.
Jaguars (3-6) at Browns (3-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Even.
Two of the people on the following list are not on the Jaguars’ active roster. Can you spot them? The list: Guy Whimper, Leger Douzable, Julius Strangepork, John Chick, Cecil Shorts, Danny Rebus. Give up? Whimper, Douzable, Chick and Shorts are all real-life Jaguars. Rebus is a character on the new “Electric Company,” and Strangepork was the medical officer on “Pigs in Space.” Give the Jaguars credit for at least adding a little flair to their anonymity. Pick: Browns.
Bengals (6-3) at Ravens (6-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Ravens by 7.
Ray Rice carried the ball just five times in last Sunday’s loss to the Seahawks, which can only mean one thing: Andy Reid sneaked into John Harbaugh’s briefcase and fiddled with his game plans. Rice was steamed, and he did not talk to reporters after the game, explaining later that locker-room frustration “leads to disaster, leads to trouble, leads to people pointing fingers,” And disaster, trouble, and finger-pointing lead to extra-awesome game capsules! C’mon, Ray, some of us are trying to earn a living here. Pick: Ravens.
Seahawks (3-6) at Rams (2-7)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Rams by 1.5.
All four N.F.C. West teams won last week, the kind of cosmic convergence that makes you want to climb into a teepee and listen to old Yes albums until the lyrics make sense. The schedulers knew we could only take so much, so the N.F.C. West teams all face each other this week in a kind of toddler swim meet. The Rams have scored 13 points in back-to-back games, so it can be argued that their offense has found consistency, though 4 of those points came from their defense. The Seahawks are nearly unbeatable when you turn the ball over to them in the red zone three times. Pick: Rams.
Cardinals (3-6) at 49ers (8-1)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: 49ers by 9.5.
A predictable, rather sad quarterback controversy is brewing in Arizona after John Skelton’s back-to-back wins over the Rams and the Eagles. It is hard not to go through the motions on the Skelton vs. Kevin Kolb debate. Fordham bona-fides aside, Skelton is an adequate backup at best, his performance against the Rams (two safeties!) was dreadful, and the Cardinals are terrible. This is controversy as reflex, the automatic need to yell, “He provided a spark!” after even the least convincing victory by the guy off the bench. Skelton can only be successful if he faces a Juan Castillo-coached defense every week, with Larry Fitzgerald covered by linebackers and All-Pro pass rushers lined up a quarter-mile away from the quarterback. The 49ers, who actually know how to use their defensive talent, will not be as obliging as the Eagles. Pick: 49ers.
Chiefs (4-5) at Patriots (6-3)
Monday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Patriots by 15.
With Matt Cassel (hand) out indefinitely, the left-hander Tyler Palko takes over a Chiefs offense that has scored 13 points in the past two weeks. Todd Haley has reinstated his rotate-the-backfield lunacy, limiting the playing time of Jackie Battle (4.6 yards per carry) so he can find a role for Thomas Jones (2.9 yards per carry). So things are not going well for the Chiefs president, Scott Pioli, who may feel the urge to barricade himself inside his old office in Foxborough, Mass., and refuse to come out. Pick: Patriots.
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