Judy Battista, who covers the N.F.L. for The Times, answers readers’ questions:
Six best teams in the A.F.C. right now?–zb, New York, N.Y.
Do I really have to commit to this in print (or the Internet)? I feel like this answer changes every week. Every team in the A.F.C. has at least three losses already, which means we don’t know much about who the dominant teams will be. But my six right now, in no particular order (and my answers could be different by the end of Sunday): Patriots, Steelers, Ravens, Texans, Oakland, and probably Bengals. The Jets would have been in that spot before Thursday night’s disaster.
Can the Texans retain their dominance in the A.F.C. South (and A.F.C. as a whole) without their starting quarterback at the helm?–bearTrapster, San Antonio
I don’t think we can answer this until next week, when we see how Matt Leinart looks. But certainly the Texans a few things going for them: a really good running game and a really good defense. That should help take the pressure off Leinart. They can certainly win the A.F.C. South – that’s a two-team race and the Titans have been erratic. Can they be dominant in the A.F.C.? That, I’m not sure of. If they get into high-scoring games with the Patriots or Steelers in the playoffs, for example, could Leinart keep up? Let’s wait and see. This is a tremendous opportunity for Leinart to resurrect his career.
Judy, do you think that the Jets will start looking at other possible candidates for QB as a possible alternative to Sanchez? Or are they going to keep all their eggs in his basket?–bigstevef, Grahamsville, N.Y.
No, I do not think they will look elsewhere. I think his recent play is a big, big concern – to my eye, he seems to be, at best, not improving and possibly regressing. Thursday’s performance was troubling, to say the least. He has no confidence, the coaches seem to have no confidence in him. But he has won four playoff games on the road in his first two years and they have gone to the A.F.C. Championship game twice. Yes, I know he had the benefit of a great defense and a good running game then. But to be fair, the troubles right now are not all Sanchez’s doing (although the pass that was intercepted and returned for a touchdown Thursday night – yikes!). The offensive line is definitely diminished, as is the running game.
Most of all, they have a lot invested in Sanchez. They traded up to draft him. They have paid him a lot of money. They have made him the face of the franchise – if anybody other than Rex can truly be the face of the franchise. And those playoff runs go a long way for team executives, even if Sanchez is now a significant concern. I can’t see them abandoning that after just three years.
The Packers are looking like the favorite to take the N.F.C. championship this year. Are there any other teams that look like they may be able to dethrone them?–Andrew S., NW Florida
Of course. First of all, one bad shot to Aaron Rodgers and the whole equation changes. But teams that could beat them: the Saints, because of their scoring ability; the Niners, because of their defense; the Giants, because of their pass rush. Let’s not forget, nobody thought the Patriots could be beaten in the Super Bowl three years ago.
The Eagles have landed.–Technic Ally, Toronto
With a thud.
Do you see the Jets holding onto Sanchez as their franchise quarterback? How bad would he have to be before they start searching for other options? He’s in this third season already, when can we expect to see some serious progress? Eli has improved every season and now he’s at the peak of his game, can we look at Sanchez in the same light?–Dan, Irkutsk, Russia
As I said above, I don’t see them giving up on him, considering they’ve won four playoff games on the road with him. I’m not sure you can say Eli improved every season – last year was a pretty bad year for interceptions, even though a bunch came on tipped passes. He is having an exceptional year this year, though. I’m not sure Sanchez will ever become the dominant kind of passer that Brady, Peyton Manning, Rodgers, Brees are, but he has elevated his game in the post-season the last two years and that’s a good sign. He has shown he can be a functional quarterback and when the Jets surround him with a good running game and a good defense they have proven they can go far with him.
Why the inflexibility of having flex scheduling for Sunday and Tuesday night? Can’t the league let the networks have their choice on Sunday and then allow NBC and ESPN choose from the rest for Sunday and Monday?–Waffle, Lincoln City, Ore.
I’m not sure I understand the question because there is no Tuesday night game. The idea of flex scheduling is to have the most critical games in prime time late in the season and to keep unimportant games out of prime time (for example, the Colts-Patriots game has already been moved out of prime time), while also allowing CBS and Fox to “protect” some games they don’t want to give up (like when the Giants play the Packers – that game would have been a no-brainer for NBC to take for Sunday night, but Fox “protected” it for itself). There are limits to the flexibility for a few reasons. Moving the game causes inconvenience for fans, who purchase tickets assuming they will be going to a game at the designated time, only to find out 10 days before that the time has changed. And I can’t imagine you could have games changing from Sunday to Monday or vice versa, because that creates travel chaos for teams, fans and the networks themselves on very short notice.
What’s your take on the Colts? It’s hard to believe Manning was solely responsible for lifting an otherwise atrocious team to elite status.–Mario, Brooklyn
Not that hard to believe that Manning elevated the whole enterprise, actually. Manning is an extraordinary player who has complete command of the offense and is intimately involved in putting the game plan together. The entire Colts roster was structured to enhance and exploit Manning and the passing game. They spent big on receivers, not on running backs. They didn’t have a big-time backup quarterback in place because Manning was an ironman until this season. They didn’t need a great running back, or a great run-blocking offensive line. They built a small, fast defense with the idea that they would most often be playing with a lead, so rushing the opposing passer would be paramount.
What really sent the Colts into a tailspin is that they realized very late that Manning was going to be unavailable. For most of the off-season, even when training camp started, they thought – at worst – that he might miss the first few weeks. But they only realized that he needed the third surgery a few days before the season started – not much time to find an experienced backup, nor get him ready, not make changes to the rest of the roster that could allow them to change styles of offense. They have some other talented players on the team – Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Dwight Freeney, etc. – but all of what those guys do is set up by what Manning does.
Having said all that, did I expect the Colts to be winless? No way. Worse, they have started to look non-competitive, which to me is a sign that guys who have had very little experience with losing have started to give up and are now convinced they CAN’T win.
What’s the team to beat in the A.F.C.?–Justin, Quad Cities
Honestly, who knows? Just when you think we’ve established the best team in the conference, they lose – sometimes in confounding fashion. The Steelers looked dominant when they beat the Patriots, then they gave up a last-second touchdown to the Ravens at home and the Ravens look unstoppable. Until the Ravens lose to Seattle, one of the worst teams in the entire league. And then the Patriots dominated the Jets. That would have led me to believe that the Texans were the team to beat – they have been the most consistent, have a good running game, good passing game, very good defense. Except that now their starting quarterback, Matt Schaub, is done for the season. If I had to say right now, I’d probably pick the Steelers, because they seem most balanced, have an excellent quarterback and have proven they can win close games in the playoffs. But don’t hold me to that.
Do the 49ers re-sign Alex Smith after this season?–Gopal, San Francisco
Yes, I think definitely so. Harbaugh has worked wonders for Smith and the team likes the leadership role he took during the lockout when, as a free agent, he took it upon himself to learn the offense and lead workouts with players. They have to be considered a favorite to at least make the N.F.C. Championship game right now – how do you not re-sign the quarterback, who will come a lot cheaper than most, who gets you there, and give him a regular off-season under Harbaugh’s tutelage?
Where does Matt Flynn end up next season?–Cottsb, MN
Wow. It’s early for these kinds of questions. First we have to figure out at the end of the season how many teams need quarterbacks and then you have to gauge if those teams think he is better than what they can get out of the draft. If he gets no significant playing time this season, it’s awfully hard to judge his potential beyond being a backup.
Eli Manning has always shown consistent ability in executing the no-huddle, hurry-up, two minute offense. Why don’t the Giants use this attack more often, especially when they appear flat during extended periods in games?–Vincent, New York, N.Y.
Because that is not the team the Giants want to be. In the past, when they have gone to a more pass-heavy offense, it has not worked and they knew they had to go back to running more regularly. This is part of their overall philosophy of physical football, highlighted by a stout defense. The no-huddle is a great change-up for them and Eli does seem to execute it well and I agree that I’d like to see more of it when they look flat. But the Giants have their style and they’re sticking with it.
Despite all the talk that has started about the Packers going undefeated, I think back to the Patriots’ recent undefeated season and worry that the same thing could happen to the Packers, assuming they aren’t upset earlier in the playoffs.
What do you think are their chances for going 16-0? The game I’m most concerned about is Thanksgiving Day in Detroit. Wasn’t that their only loss in 1962? And wasn’t Lombardi so mad about it that he ended the Packers’ participation in the Thanksgiving Day game?–Art Kraus, Princeton, N.J.
I certainly agree that the Lions game seems like an obvious time for a loss, but the Packers also play the Giants in December in New York, plus have another game against the Bears, although it is at Lambeau. But I think their chances are pretty good that they go 16-0 as long as Aaron Rodgers does not get hurt. The Packers have a few advantages over the Patriots if they go undefeated – first of all, since the Patriots already completed an undefeated regular season, the Packers’ run at it won’t draw as much attention. And the Patriots’ made their run at perfection in the season that began with Spygate, which really ramped up the focus and pressure on the team. By this time in 2007, many national writers – myself included – were covering every Patriots game. That won’t happen for the Packers until very late. One more thing about the playoffs: We saw what happens when a team purposely loses a game in the regular season – the Colts did that and then made it to the Super Bowl and then lost. So there is no formula yet to finish a perfect season except the one by the 1972 Dolphins.
What’s your take on the Jets’ offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer? I feel that if they replaced him and allowed Mark Sanchez to pass more their offense would be more dynamic and he would progress further than he has already. It would give him more confidence and they could then beat teams like New England. Plus their running back Greene doesn’t seem to be the answer. And how about adding Randy Moss to the mix?–smolderingbrute, New York, N.Y.
After last night, I fear that you are curled up somewhere in the fetal position. Let’s get one thing out of the mix: Randy Moss? No. You already have combustible personalities in Plaxico Burress and Santonio Holmes and you want to add Randy Moss? No, no, no. And there is a reason Moss is not on a team now – teams think he is either done, or more trouble than he’s worth at this point in his career.
Moving on: I wonder if you think they should put the ball more in Sanchez’s hands after seeing how he played last night – that interception he threw was a killer, and a terrible decision on his part. It’s pretty clear the Jets coaches don’t have much confidence in Sanchez right now, and he’s giving them plenty of reason to feel that way. Don’t forget, they went with more passing earlier in the season and that didn’t work, so they went back to Ground and Pound. I’m not defending Schottenheimer – I don’t think the Jets’ offense has shown much rhythm this season no matter what they tried. But his play-calling is also a product of a quarterback who is not progressing, and an offensive line and running game that are not anywhere near the quality of last year’s.
The basic questions: What is the take on the Q.B.R. in the football world outside of ESPN? Have there been many instances of ratings which seem wildly off base to many observers?
The Back Story:
I stumbled upon an odd contrast in the course of discussing Tim Tebow’s Q.B.R. with some other bloggers. Tebow’s Q.B.R. ranking for the Week 9 Raiders game was 21 near the bottom of active QBs, and in the Chiefs game the following week he bounced up into elite company at number 7.
In the big picture Tebow’s performance looks roughly the same in these two Broncos victories. No turnovers and a low pass completion percentage combined with some impact plays in both phases of the offense. In two games that were controlled on the ground by the Broncos offense, Tebow’s rushing in the Raiders game (13 runs for 118 yards) was approximately double what he produced the following week in Kansas City. He had one bad sack (11 yds) and more penalties (delay of game) against the Raiders.
Basically you’ve got a QB who is making a major contribution to controlling the game, directly producing over 240 yards of offense with 2 TDs and zero turnovers. He is rated near the bottom of the league with guys who are destroying their teams with picks. The next week he plays the same type of game, weaker in some respects, and he’s near the top of the league.
The more you dig into a comparison between these two games the less convincing the Q.B.R. scores become. The relative weighting of rush versus pass and big plays versus small plays all might play a role in producing some odd results. I can’t help but wonder what questionable assumptions are built into ESPN’s breakdown of plays and their probability models. Penalties played an unusually large role in the Raiders game, and that might be an interesting anomaly. Shouldn’t a QB get some credit for defensive penalties directly related to attacking the QB or the passing game?–ianicol, Colorado
I haven’t studied ESPN’s formula enough to know how they arrive at their figures, but most players dismiss quarterback ratings of all kinds – even the traditional one used by the league raise eyebrows because of its skewed results — and I’m pretty certain the Broncos wouldn’t care what his rating is. The Broncos are 4-1 since Tebow became the starter and are, incredibly, in the A.F.C. playoff mix. That’s the only ranking that matters.
Why is “spiking” the ball not considered “intentional grounding?”–SL, Saratoga Springs, N.Y.
Because of the intent, which is usually pretty clear in both cases. Spiking is meant to stop the clock in a hurry-up situation. Intentional grounding is obviously an effort to avoid losing yardage by throwing the ball away to avoid a sack.
What records do you anticipate that Aaron Rodgers will break this season? Whichever ones he wants?–95711, Appleton, Wis.
I think it depends what kinds of games the Packers are in at the end of the season and if the Packers make the decision to give him some rest before the start of the playoffs. Marino’s record for single-season passing yards (5,084) is in reach, so is Drew Brees’s record for completion percentage (70.6), and so is Tom Brady’s passing touchdowns record (50), and Peyton Manning’s for passer rating (130.7). But again, the Packers are going to clinch early and depending on whether they are motivated to try for an undefeated season (or whether that is still in play late in December), they may opt to let Rodgers rest.
If the playoffs started today, the two wildcard teams would each come from the same division, in both conferences: Baltimore and Cincinnati in the A.F.C., Detroit and Chicago in the N.F.C. What is the likelihood of three teams from the same division (the division winner and two wildcards) all making the playoffs, and has that ever happened before?–zb, New York, N.Y.
It’s not quite as rare as you’d think. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, since 2002, when the division and playoff format changes, it’s happened three times. In 2007, the N.F.C. East and the A.F.C. South both produced three playoff teams. And in 2006, the N.F.C. East did it. Not surprisingly, it happened more frequently when the NFL had five-team divisions.
What do you think the Colts should do to rebound from this year’s disaster?–LM, Elgin, S.C.
One good thing about seasons like this: they remove all the varnish from a team. I don’t expect owner Jim Irsay to remove the Polians as the top decision-makers. Jim Caldwell and the entire coaching staff might pay the price, though. Then, assuming the team has the first pick, they have to take Andrew Luck. They will then have to decide what to do about Manning. Keep him and let him mentor Luck? Trade him? Let him go completely? But aside from the massive quarterback decision, there are many, many needs that haven’t been met over the years and which have been covered up by Manning’s brilliance. The offensive line, the defense as a whole, the running game. To prepare for life after Manning, whenever that moment arrives, the Colts have to become a more balanced team. Certainly if they have Luck, they will always be pass-first, but the Colts have proven the risk of leaning too heavily on just one person.
The Colts’ off-season will be one of the most fascinating in years, from the first decision about whether to keep Caldwell and the Polians, to the quarterback quandary to the moves they make in the draft and free agency.
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