Different but Brilliant: Wes Welker and Calvin Johnson

There may not be two distinctly different players in the league, but somehow, they play the same position.

Wes Welker is one of the shortest, smallest players in the N.F.L. He was a star high school football player in Oklahoma, but he couldn’t even get a scholarship from Tulsa. Despite a great career at Texas Tech, the 5-foot-9, 185-pound Welker was never invited to the N.F.L. scouting combine. He was not drafted. He was signed as a free agent by the Chargers, then cut after one game.

Calvin Johnson might be the most physically gifted player in a league full of them. At 6-5, 240, Johnson is a defense’s  nightmare. He was the talk of the scouting combine, where he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.36 seconds. His vertical leap of 45 inches means no one can match him when the ball is in the air. There’s a reason he’s nicknamed Megatron.

Each is dominating the league in his own way. And after four weeks, Johnson and Welker are putting themselves in position to overtake three of the game’s greatest wide receivers. For Johnson, this was the sort of future that seemed preordained, that is, until the Detroit Lions drafted him with the second overall pick in the 2007 draft. The Lions were picking in the top 10 of the draft for the sixth straight season, and the previous five selections — Ernie Sims, Mike Williams, Roy Williams, Charles Rogers and Joey Harrington — had been monumental busts. Those drafts laid the foundation for the team that went 0-16 in 2008.

For Welker, it was always more about survival. After signing with the Dolphins following his cup of coffee in San Diego, he didn’t catch a single pass in his rookie season and fumbled four times as a returner. But he earned more playing the time the following year, then burst onto the scene by catching 67 passes in 2006. In a game in New England, Welker grabbed nine passes — and Bill Belichick’s attention. The following March, just weeks before the Lions drafted Johnson, the Patriots traded two draft picks to acquire Welker.

In 2007, Welker led the league in receptions. In 2008, Johnson led the league with 12 touchdown catches. In 2009, Welker again led the league in receptions; in 2010, Johnson again caught 12 touchdown passes. This year, the two are tormenting secondaries even by their lofty standards.

Welker has 40 catches and 616 receiving yards. Not only does he lead the league in both categories, but they’re also the highest marks after any team’s first four games in N.F.L. history.  Johnson has scored two touchdowns in every game. His eight receiving touchdowns are the most by any player after four games, and he just became the second player to record four consecutive games with multiple touchdown grabs (tying Cris Carter, 1995). Welker caught a 99-yard touchdown pass. Johnson caught two fourth-quarter touchdown passes to help the Lions rally past the Cowboys.

Both players have been as valuable as any non-quarterback in the league. The Lions and the Patriots each have scored 135 points this season, trailing only the Green Bay Packers. The teams are a combined 7-1, with the only loss coming in a game in which Welker caught 16 passes for 217 yards, both of which have been unmatched by any other player this season. And together, they seem to be taking aim at all of the league’s single-season receiving records.

Both players have endured injuries in their careers, but assuming good health, can either of them make 2011 a record-breaking season?

Receptions: Marvin Harrison, 143, 2002

Welker would need 104 catches over the next 12 games to break Harrison’s record. But it may not be as unreachable as you might think. In 2009, an injured Welker missed two games early in the season, but caught 122 passes over his first 13 games, for a remarkable 9.4 receptions per game average. In the season finale in Houston, Welker  tore his ACL and MCL on his first reception of the game. A brutal knee injury can take more than a year to heal, and in 2010 Welker did not look like the same player he had been during his first three seasons with the Patriots. But with a 10-catch-per-game average in 2011, it’s safe to say he’s back. With the way the Patriot offense and defense have looked this season (more on that, below), Welker could make a legitimate run at the receptions mark.

Trivia: Since 1960, eight players have caught 40 or more passes over a four-game span: Brandon Marshall (45), Marvin Harrison (43), Wes Welker (43), Jerry Rice (42), Cris Carter (41), Andre Johnson (41), Jimmy Smith (41) and Kellen Winslow Sr. (40)

Receiving Yards: Jerry Rice, 1,848 yards, 1995

The San Francisco 49ers ran 1,092 plays in 1995, more than any team ran in 2010. The 49ers also passed 644 times, a number bested by only the Colts and Saints last year. The Patriots are fourth in the league in pass attempts, but it goes without saying that Welker is no Jerry Rice. Welker has always been a possession receiver, more likely to rack up high catch totals instead of big yards. He gained 1,175 yards in 2007 and then 1,165 in 2008. He had just 848 yards last year, despite 86 catches. The most optimistic outlook? In his first 13 games in ‘09, he gained 1,336 yards, for an average of 102.8 yards per game. If he averaged that over the next 12, he’d finish with 1,849 receiving yards. Unless everything goes perfectly, this mark is unlikely to be challenged by Welker. Carolina’s Steve Smith has 530 receiving yards through four games, and is probably a better bet to lead the league in receiving yards this year. Once Aaron Hernandez returns, Welker’s share of the Patriots pie will decrease.

Trivia: Since 1960, 16 receivers have topped 600 yards over a four-game span, most recently Chad Ochocinco in 2006.

Receiving Touchdowns: Randy Moss, 23, 2007; Jerry Rice, 22, 1987

Moss set the record with receiving touchdowns in ‘07, but Rice scored 22 touchdowns in the strike-shortened 1987 season. At this pace, Johnson might beat both. Johnson has been hamstrung by less than stellar quarterbacks, but there’s no doubt that he clicks with Matthew Stafford. He caught a touchdown in each of Stafford’s last three starts as a rookie in 2009. In 2010, Stafford only started three games: Johnson caught a touchdown in the first game of the season, but officials overturned it on questionable grounds. Megatron caught three touchdown passes in his next game with Stafford. In Stafford’s third and final start of the ‘10 season, Johnson was marooned on Revis Island. But with 8 touchdown catches this year, Johnson and Stafford look unstoppable. With his combination of size, leaping ability and hands, he’s as dominant a red zone target as exists in the N.F.L. With an ineffective running game, it stands to reason that Stafford-to-Johnson might be the Lions’ first, second and third play-calls once they get inside the 10 for the rest of the year.

As productive as Jerry Rice and Randy Moss were at catching touchdowns, both only topped 17 touchdowns once in their careers. Johnson will need more than one touchdown per game the rest of the way to break Moss’s mark; in fact, if he catches two touchdown passes in his next four games, he would still need to average a touchdown per game for the remainder of the season to set the new record. As good as Johnson is, this record requires too many things to go perfectly to give any receiver anything more than a puncher’s chance this early in the season.

Trivia: Only three players in history have caught more than eight touchdown passes over a four-game stretch: Sterling Sharpe (9), Art Powell (10) and Jerry Rice (10).

Patriots setting all kinds of records, on both sides of the ball

New England scored over 30 points in each of the last eight games of the 2010 regular season. And while the offense floundered in memorable fashion against the Jets in New England’s only postseason game last season, the Patriot offense has again topped 30 points in every game in 2011. By doing so, New England became the first team to score over 30 points in 12 straight regular-season games. The 1999-2000 Rams were the previous record holders, with 11 straight. Drop the requirement to 30 or more points, and those Rams teams are the record-holders with 14 straight games. For now.

How good has New England’s offense been? The Patriots are the first team in league history to gain over 2,000 yards in the opening four games. The only offense that might be able to match New England’s? Whatever offense is on the other sideline. The Patriots are the first team in league history to allow over 1,900 yards to opponents in the first four games. Tom Brady has thrown for 1,553 yards on 163 passes so far. Pretty good, but Chad Henne, Philip Rivers, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jason Campbell threw for 1,475 yards on 168 passes against the Patriots’ defense. Bill Belichick probably gets treated for whiplash after every practice.

Meanwhile, the Patriots return to Foxborough for the next three weeks. Things have been good there for New England, at least in the regular season. The win over the Chargers in Week 2 of this season was New England’s 18th straight home victory during the regular season. From 1971 to 1974, the Miami Dolphins won 27 straight regular-season home games, so the Patriots can’t break that record this season. But Tom Brady already owns the record for consecutive home victories as a quarterback. Brady has won an incredible 29 straight at home. His last home loss? In 2006, against the Jets. This week, the Patriots host the Jets, with both home streaks on the line. In the Patriots’ last 42 home games, New England is 4-3 against the Jets and 32-3 against the rest of the league.

Chase Stuart contributes to the Pro-Football-Reference.com blog and to Footballguys.com.

2011 Detroit Lions Season Preview

Andy Benoit is previewing all 32 N.F.L. teams. He continues his look at the N.F.C. North with the Lions.

Football America is ready for the Detroit Lions to grow up. It’s almost as if America is the stern father sitting the Lions down and telling them that in Year 3 under the Jim Schwartz, it’s time they assume more responsibility and at least start pulling their weight on Thanksgiving. They’re not the N.F.C. North’s cute little rebuilders anymore.

The Lions won their final four games to finish a bearable 6-10 last season. For the first time in 11 years they ranked in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive scoring (15th offensively, 19th defensively). General Manager Martin Mayhew has earned positive marks for the way he’s constructed this roster. Mayhew’s top four picks in 2009 – quarterback Matthew Stafford, tight end Brandon Pettigrew, safety Louis Delmas and linebacker DeAndre Levy – are all significant starters. So are his top two selections of 2010 – defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh and running back Jahvid Best.

Stafford and Suh are behind whatever optimism there is in the Motor City. Stafford is telling everyone this is the year he finally plays all 16 games (shoulder and knee problems derailed him for six games as a rookie, and another shoulder injury sidelined him for 13 as a sophomore). Suh told NFL Network back in March that there’s no reason the Lions can’t go 16-0 in 2011. This may be hyperbole to a Bill Walton-like degree, but it was perceived by most as refreshing bravado from an organization that seemingly hasn’t boasted about anything since its Portsmouth days.

Any success Detroit has in 2011 figures to stem largely from the 24-year-old Suh. He’s the first superstar the defense has had since Lem Barney. But Suh’s words are only remotely sensible if Stafford backs up his words. And even then, success for this team is far from promised.

Before last season’s four-game winning streak, the Lions had won just 4 of their last 45 games. In the Motor City, figures like that usually lead to a government takeover of part of your company.

Can we be O.K. with tempering our expectations for this seemingly rising club? Can “pulling their weight on Thanksgiving” simply mean not being mathematically eliminated from playoff contention entering that game? What are fair expectations for Detroit?

Offense

If Matthew Stafford doesn’t stay healthy, you can forget all about this team in 2011. Shaun Hill is a fine backup, but he doesn’t have a lively enough arm to consistently move the chains behind a bad offensive line. And this is a bad offensive line – especially when it comes to generating power in the run game.

Center Dominic Raiola is an emotional tone setter, but as an undersized 32-year-old, he has become the weak link. Raiola has trouble holding ground in pass protection. His greatest attribute has always been mobility, but guards Rob Sims and Stephen Peterman are not dynamic enough to create consistent running lanes off movement. Sims tends to be sloppy, especially when forced to operate laterally. Peterman struggles to generate power from a standstill. Unfortunately, Detroit doesn’t have many options behind these three. Backup center Rudy Niswanger is simply Raiola without the veteran wisdom, and Dylan Gandy was unable to stick around in Indianapolis, where the qualifications for being an interior lineman don’t go too far beyond “having a pulse.”

The offensive tackles are almost equally precarious. Veteran mainstay Jeff Backus is coming off a torn pectoral muscle suffered during an off-season workout. He should be ready for the opener, but at 34 (on Sept. 21) and coming off a very average ’10 campaign, he might catch management glancing over at last year’s fourth-round pick, Jason Fox.

Management would ostensibly love to glance at someone other than the disappointing Gosder Cherilus on the right side. But alas, the ’08 first-round pick remains entrenched in a starting role despite having been benched on a fairly regular basis throughout his career. Cherilus actually has decent all-around ability, but poor footwork and initial technique off the snap lead to too many blown plays.

The offensive line’s limitations will continue to hinder the ground game. The Lions are fortunate that running backs Jahvid Best, Maurice Morris and Jerome Harrison possess enough speed to turn the corner (where run-blocking becomes a little less relevant), but ultimately, a sustainable offense requires at least a serviceable inside rushing attack.

Best needs to be more patient when it comes to setting up blocks and trusting the play design. He has impressive open-field skills and superb receiving ability (48 catches as a rookie) but he’s a de facto third-down back if his 3.2 yards per carry average doesn’t increase. Third-down duties may have been the plan for Best in 2011, actually. The Lions spent a second-round pick on Mikel Leshoure, but the Rashard Mendenhall-like runner blew out an Achilles’ in training camp.

You can see why this offense needs a potential gunslinger like Stafford rather than a caretaker like Hill. Coordinator Scott Linehan will have to rely heavily on his aerial weapons in 2011. Fortunately, those weapons are potent. Stafford, in limited samples, has shown to be a pocket passer with the toughness and arm strength to stare down the gun barrel while defenders close in. Sinewy superstar Calvin Johnson is the most gifted wide receiver in the N.F.L. With more consistent route running, he’d be borderline unguardable (double-team or not).

No. 2 receiver Nate Burleson is a perfect fit for Linehan’s downfield-oriented scheme. Next to him is second-round rookie Titus Young, who has the quickness and route running acumen to make an instant impact out of the slot. That’s assuming he can overcome early hamstring issues and beat out long-underrated ex-Bear Rashied Davis (a player of similar style) and ’09 third-round pick Derrick Williams (a non-achiever to this point).

Brandon Pettigrew is the best tight end that casual fans have never heard of. Last season, coming off a torn ACL, the stout blocker showed improved quickness and fluidity. The soft-handed Pettigrew looks like a lumbering runner but actually has the deceptive fluidity to beat ordinary man coverage. With athletic pass-catcher (and only pass-catcher) Tony Scheffler also around, the Lions can expect at least 100 receptions out of the tight end position this season.

Defense

Ndamukong Suh invigorated this defense the way Steve Jobs invigorated Apple. His mere presence brings instant credibility. And, unlike Jobs, Suh doesn’t even have an extensive track record. He’s managed to set a tone by being the most nimble 300-plus-pound defensive lineman in the N.F.L. and having an unmatched motor and mean streak. He’s physically strong, but his greatest attribute is his agility, which allows him to operate out of a variety of movement-based methods (both pre-and post-snap). This movement makes him extremely difficult to crisply double-team and allows defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham and defensive line coach Kris Kocurek to employ creative stunts and amoeba alignments with the down four.

Because of this, the Lions get about 125 percent of the production they should from their front line. That’s saying something when you consider it’s not an untalented group. Sheer effort and near-perfect technique allow motivational veteran Kyle Vanden Bosch to command the full attention of opposing offenses. This is part of the reason supple fourth-year pro Cliff Avril racked up 8.5 sacks in 2010. Both of these defensive ends can also play the run effectively. So can Lawrence Jackson, a big former first-round pick of Seattle who doesn’t have the speed to be a premier edge-rusher but has mobility that’s ideal for a backup in this scheme.

Detroit’s firepower inside could be downright terrifying if first-round pick Nick Fairley pans out. He’s a question mark (many questioned his motor in college, and he’s missed virtually all of training camp recovering from foot surgery). Fairley’s presence could be huge, but the Lions don’t really need him. Corey Williams is an aggressive attacker who, because he can play more of a two-gap style, might be an even sounder run defender than Suh. (Suh has uncanny playmaking prowess, but there’s a bit of a hit-or-miss element to his game.) What’s more, Sammie Hill has discovered his identity as an energetic clogger spelling Williams.

The stunts and presnap looks with defensive linemen represent the only aggressively creative tactic that Gunther Cunningham uses on a regular basis. Behind the line is a traditional zone-playing back seven. Detroit’s commitment to Cover 2 methods makes life in pass defense a little easier on young safeties Louis Delmas and Amari Spievey. That’s fine, though Delmas, now in his third season and one of the meanest hitters in the league, could be ready to assume more responsibility. He has the speed to cover large chunks of ground – it’s just a matter of whether he can read routes and make good decisions away from the box. Spievey is a work in progress entering Year 2. Don’t be surprised if free-agent pickup Erik Coleman, a versatile veteran who played in a somewhat similar scheme as a Falcon, pushes him for playing time.

The Lions badly need a playmaker who can sprinkle some flavor on this cornerback group. Too often Detroit’s defensive backs play with an overly cautious focus on technique. That can make them vulnerable to giving up big plays (as athletic but jittery Alphonso Smith showed last season). Smith is back but in a reserve role. Chris Houston remains a starter, though he lacks quick-twitch and great recovery speed and sometimes seems allergic to physical contact. Newcomer Eric Wright is the opposite in terms of physicality. He also has good quickness, though if all these traits were sterling, he would never have lost his job in Cleveland. Wright is the best option at right cornerback, although ex-Bear Nathan Vasher has more Cover 2 experience than anyone on this roster, and it shows.

It will be interesting to see how Detroit’s linebacking unit performs. There’s a lot of talent here but no sure things. DeAndre Levy is the jewel. He runs like a deer and has good instincts. It’s a little surprising the Lions aren’t using him in the featured Mike ‘backer role. The likely thinking behind that is steady but mundane ex-Titan Stephen Tulloch doesn’t have the speed to cover the flats in this scheme. So, Tulloch will occupy the middle, with undependable Ashlee Palmer backing him up.

Rounding out the unit is Justin Durant, an intriguingly athletic fifth-year pro whom the Jaguars did not re-sign because he has too many on-and-off-the-field ups and downs. Martin Mayhew is betting Durant can mine the rest of his considerable talent, but he hedged the bet by giving him only a two-year deal. The telling factor might be whether coaches trust Durant enough to play him ahead of finesse nickel linebacker Bobby Carpenter on passing downs. He’ll have to show sharper diagnostic skills here than he did in Jacksonville.

Special Teams

Jason Hanson may die of old age before the Lions get rid of him. Knee problems in 2010 and 41 years of age didn’t scare off the front office from bringing him back under a contract that expires after 2012. Hanson still has good range. Nick Harris and the punt coverage unit allowed 11.7 yards per return in 2010, which is too much. In their own return game, the Lions have a lightning bug in Stefan Logan.

Bottom Line

If Stafford stays healthy, a realistic goal would be 9-7.

Predicted Finish: 2nd N.F.C. North

Andy Benoit is the founder of NFLTouchdown.com and covers the N.F.L. for CBSsports.com. He can be reached at andy.benoit@NFLtouchdown.com.