There may not be two distinctly different players in the league, but somehow, they play the same position.
Wes Welker is one of the shortest, smallest players in the N.F.L. He was a star high school football player in Oklahoma, but he couldn’t even get a scholarship from Tulsa. Despite a great career at Texas Tech, the 5-foot-9, 185-pound Welker was never invited to the N.F.L. scouting combine. He was not drafted. He was signed as a free agent by the Chargers, then cut after one game.
Calvin Johnson might be the most physically gifted player in a league full of them. At 6-5, 240, Johnson is a defense’s nightmare. He was the talk of the scouting combine, where he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.36 seconds. His vertical leap of 45 inches means no one can match him when the ball is in the air. There’s a reason he’s nicknamed Megatron.
Each is dominating the league in his own way. And after four weeks, Johnson and Welker are putting themselves in position to overtake three of the game’s greatest wide receivers. For Johnson, this was the sort of future that seemed preordained, that is, until the Detroit Lions drafted him with the second overall pick in the 2007 draft. The Lions were picking in the top 10 of the draft for the sixth straight season, and the previous five selections — Ernie Sims, Mike Williams, Roy Williams, Charles Rogers and Joey Harrington — had been monumental busts. Those drafts laid the foundation for the team that went 0-16 in 2008.
For Welker, it was always more about survival. After signing with the Dolphins following his cup of coffee in San Diego, he didn’t catch a single pass in his rookie season and fumbled four times as a returner. But he earned more playing the time the following year, then burst onto the scene by catching 67 passes in 2006. In a game in New England, Welker grabbed nine passes — and Bill Belichick’s attention. The following March, just weeks before the Lions drafted Johnson, the Patriots traded two draft picks to acquire Welker.
In 2007, Welker led the league in receptions. In 2008, Johnson led the league with 12 touchdown catches. In 2009, Welker again led the league in receptions; in 2010, Johnson again caught 12 touchdown passes. This year, the two are tormenting secondaries even by their lofty standards.
Welker has 40 catches and 616 receiving yards. Not only does he lead the league in both categories, but they’re also the highest marks after any team’s first four games in N.F.L. history. Johnson has scored two touchdowns in every game. His eight receiving touchdowns are the most by any player after four games, and he just became the second player to record four consecutive games with multiple touchdown grabs (tying Cris Carter, 1995). Welker caught a 99-yard touchdown pass. Johnson caught two fourth-quarter touchdown passes to help the Lions rally past the Cowboys.
Both players have been as valuable as any non-quarterback in the league. The Lions and the Patriots each have scored 135 points this season, trailing only the Green Bay Packers. The teams are a combined 7-1, with the only loss coming in a game in which Welker caught 16 passes for 217 yards, both of which have been unmatched by any other player this season. And together, they seem to be taking aim at all of the league’s single-season receiving records.
Both players have endured injuries in their careers, but assuming good health, can either of them make 2011 a record-breaking season?
Receptions: Marvin Harrison, 143, 2002
Welker would need 104 catches over the next 12 games to break Harrison’s record. But it may not be as unreachable as you might think. In 2009, an injured Welker missed two games early in the season, but caught 122 passes over his first 13 games, for a remarkable 9.4 receptions per game average. In the season finale in Houston, Welker tore his ACL and MCL on his first reception of the game. A brutal knee injury can take more than a year to heal, and in 2010 Welker did not look like the same player he had been during his first three seasons with the Patriots. But with a 10-catch-per-game average in 2011, it’s safe to say he’s back. With the way the Patriot offense and defense have looked this season (more on that, below), Welker could make a legitimate run at the receptions mark.
Trivia: Since 1960, eight players have caught 40 or more passes over a four-game span: Brandon Marshall (45), Marvin Harrison (43), Wes Welker (43), Jerry Rice (42), Cris Carter (41), Andre Johnson (41), Jimmy Smith (41) and Kellen Winslow Sr. (40)
Receiving Yards: Jerry Rice, 1,848 yards, 1995
The San Francisco 49ers ran 1,092 plays in 1995, more than any team ran in 2010. The 49ers also passed 644 times, a number bested by only the Colts and Saints last year. The Patriots are fourth in the league in pass attempts, but it goes without saying that Welker is no Jerry Rice. Welker has always been a possession receiver, more likely to rack up high catch totals instead of big yards. He gained 1,175 yards in 2007 and then 1,165 in 2008. He had just 848 yards last year, despite 86 catches. The most optimistic outlook? In his first 13 games in ‘09, he gained 1,336 yards, for an average of 102.8 yards per game. If he averaged that over the next 12, he’d finish with 1,849 receiving yards. Unless everything goes perfectly, this mark is unlikely to be challenged by Welker. Carolina’s Steve Smith has 530 receiving yards through four games, and is probably a better bet to lead the league in receiving yards this year. Once Aaron Hernandez returns, Welker’s share of the Patriots pie will decrease.
Trivia: Since 1960, 16 receivers have topped 600 yards over a four-game span, most recently Chad Ochocinco in 2006.
Receiving Touchdowns: Randy Moss, 23, 2007; Jerry Rice, 22, 1987
Moss set the record with receiving touchdowns in ‘07, but Rice scored 22 touchdowns in the strike-shortened 1987 season. At this pace, Johnson might beat both. Johnson has been hamstrung by less than stellar quarterbacks, but there’s no doubt that he clicks with Matthew Stafford. He caught a touchdown in each of Stafford’s last three starts as a rookie in 2009. In 2010, Stafford only started three games: Johnson caught a touchdown in the first game of the season, but officials overturned it on questionable grounds. Megatron caught three touchdown passes in his next game with Stafford. In Stafford’s third and final start of the ‘10 season, Johnson was marooned on Revis Island. But with 8 touchdown catches this year, Johnson and Stafford look unstoppable. With his combination of size, leaping ability and hands, he’s as dominant a red zone target as exists in the N.F.L. With an ineffective running game, it stands to reason that Stafford-to-Johnson might be the Lions’ first, second and third play-calls once they get inside the 10 for the rest of the year.
As productive as Jerry Rice and Randy Moss were at catching touchdowns, both only topped 17 touchdowns once in their careers. Johnson will need more than one touchdown per game the rest of the way to break Moss’s mark; in fact, if he catches two touchdown passes in his next four games, he would still need to average a touchdown per game for the remainder of the season to set the new record. As good as Johnson is, this record requires too many things to go perfectly to give any receiver anything more than a puncher’s chance this early in the season.
Trivia: Only three players in history have caught more than eight touchdown passes over a four-game stretch: Sterling Sharpe (9), Art Powell (10) and Jerry Rice (10).
Patriots setting all kinds of records, on both sides of the ball
New England scored over 30 points in each of the last eight games of the 2010 regular season. And while the offense floundered in memorable fashion against the Jets in New England’s only postseason game last season, the Patriot offense has again topped 30 points in every game in 2011. By doing so, New England became the first team to score over 30 points in 12 straight regular-season games. The 1999-2000 Rams were the previous record holders, with 11 straight. Drop the requirement to 30 or more points, and those Rams teams are the record-holders with 14 straight games. For now.
How good has New England’s offense been? The Patriots are the first team in league history to gain over 2,000 yards in the opening four games. The only offense that might be able to match New England’s? Whatever offense is on the other sideline. The Patriots are the first team in league history to allow over 1,900 yards to opponents in the first four games. Tom Brady has thrown for 1,553 yards on 163 passes so far. Pretty good, but Chad Henne, Philip Rivers, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jason Campbell threw for 1,475 yards on 168 passes against the Patriots’ defense. Bill Belichick probably gets treated for whiplash after every practice.
Meanwhile, the Patriots return to Foxborough for the next three weeks. Things have been good there for New England, at least in the regular season. The win over the Chargers in Week 2 of this season was New England’s 18th straight home victory during the regular season. From 1971 to 1974, the Miami Dolphins won 27 straight regular-season home games, so the Patriots can’t break that record this season. But Tom Brady already owns the record for consecutive home victories as a quarterback. Brady has won an incredible 29 straight at home. His last home loss? In 2006, against the Jets. This week, the Patriots host the Jets, with both home streaks on the line. In the Patriots’ last 42 home games, New England is 4-3 against the Jets and 32-3 against the rest of the league.
Chase Stuart contributes to the Pro-Football-Reference.com blog and to Footballguys.com.
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