Six of the presumptive favorites to win the Super Bowl had flaws on full display on Sunday.
For now, Green Bay looks to be the class of the league, and fans of unbeaten Buffalo and Detroit are surely proud of their teams. But four others teams — the two franchises with the best records in 2010, the only team to make the conference championship game in each of the past two seasons, and the so-called dream team — experienced varying degrees of distress. The defenses of Rex Ryan and Bill Belichick were punctured like never before.
No Hiding the Patriots’ Defensive Woes
The Bills have now staged improbable comebacks in consecutive weeks, following up a rout of Kansas City on opening day. But the big story out of Buffalo wasn’t necessarily about the Bills. It might have been about New England, whose defense may torpedo its chances.
Buffalo defeated New England despite falling into a 21-0 hole, a sentence that Bostonians probably never thought they would read. Under Belichick, the Pats had been 53-0 when leading by 21 or more points. In the Belichick era, the Patriots were 91-4 when jumping out to a 14-point lead at any point in the game. Belichick made his reputation on the defensive side of the ball, but he’s never coached a team as one-sided as the 2011 Patriots appear to be.
Chad Henne threw for over 400 yards in the opener against the Patriots. In New England’s game against San Diego, six of the Chargers’ nine drives went for at least 50 yards, and two of the other three might have done the same if they hadn’t ended in fumbles. Patriots victories allowed the team to minimize the reality of those defensive struggles, but the defense can’t avoid the scrutiny now.
New England has allowed 1,406 yards in the team’s first three games, the fifth-worst mark since 1970. But yardage totals aside, there’s a reason this loss feels different: Tom Brady and the Patriots don’t lose shootouts to anyone but the Colts. During the Brady/Belichick era, the Pats had been 61-2 when scoring at least 30 points, with both losses coming to Peyton Manning and Indianapolis. Make that 61-3. The Patriots’ video-game offensive numbers had everything thinking it was 2007 all over again; the better comparison may end up being the 2000 Rams. That St. Louis squad passed for more yards than any team in league history, but the defense (ranked last in points allowed) prevented a Super Bowl repeat.
Jets Flunk First Leg of Road Trip
Rex Ryan is known for having elite defensive units. With Ryan, that starts by stopping the run. Against the Raiders, the Jets’ defense looked anything but elite. In his first 34 games with the Jets, Rex Ryan’s defense never allowed more than 153 rushing yards (a mark hit by the Saints in 2009). The worst the Jets had been outrushed came in Week 3 of the 2009 season, when Tennessee gained 44 more rushing yards than the Jets. The Raiders rushed for 234 yards and outrushed New York by 134 yards, margins incomprehensible before Sunday.
During Ryan’s 10 seasons as an assistant in Baltimore, the high-water mark was 207 rushing yards gained by the 2008 Giants. Sunday was as unusual for New England as it was for Ryan, who has never had a worse performance against the run. An ugly interception by Mark Sanchez and an abysmal day by Antonio Cromartie were part of the problem, but inconsistent play from those two is something the Jets have endured before. The run defense had almost never been the culprit.
Unlike the Patriots, the Jets appear to have the horses on defense to earn the benefit of the doubt. The only other game under Ryan when the run defense was primarily responsible for a loss came against Miami and the Wildcat in 2009. The Jets responded in the rematch by holding Miami to 52 rushing yards. Unfortunately for the Jets, there seems to be little margin for error in the next two weeks, with games in Baltimore and New England. The Ravens gained 553 yards of offense against the Rams, the second-highest yardage total by any team this season. Numbers one, two, and four on that list came at the hands Tom Brady and the Patriots. If the Jets still have questions about their defense two weeks from now, they may be staring at a 2-3 record.
Is That a Doughnut or the Eagles’ Defense?
A loss to the Giants doesn’t spell doom for Philadelphia: in both 2000 and 2003, Andy Reid’s Eagles made the playoffs after a 1-2 start. Philadelphia started 2-2 in 2010, and 2-2 is likely for this edition, with San Francisco on tap this weekend (after edging the Bengals, the 49ers are now 2-21 in road games against non-N.F.C. West competition since 2007). Philadelphia can still realize all of its hopes and dreams, but there is no way to hide the warts anymore. In both losses, the three biggest worries for the Birds took center stage:
The Eagles can give any team in the league a serious challenge. But Philadelphia doesn’t have the look of a dominant 13-3 team that’s going to take the N.F.L. by storm. The dream is still attainable — Philadelphia could get hot at the right moment, Vick could be healthy in December and January, and the right set of playoff opponents could find their way on the Eagles’ schedule. But this is a flawed team, and its struggles in short-yardage situations against the Giants looked more like frustrating Andy Reid teams from the Donovan McNabb era than any sort of dream team.
Falcons Regress to Mean
After an opening day loss in Pittsburgh, the 2010 Falcons went on a 12-1 run in which they effectively clinched the top seed. Nine times in that 13-game stretch, the Falcons entered the fourth quarter leading or trailing by less than a touchdown; Atlanta went 9-0 in those games.
Had the team gone a more reasonable 5-4, the Falcons would have been a 9-7 team on the outside looking in. Instead, good fortune brought them the conference’s best record. Through three games this season, Atlanta has been trailing by 24, 10 and 13 points entering the third quarter. If not for a Michael Vick injury in Week 2, the Falcons could be staring at an 0-3 record. Atlanta wasn’t nearly as good as its record last year, but the Falcons aren’t going to be trailing by double digits every weekend this year either. Expect something more in the middle, but hopes of a Super season in Atlanta have seemed too rosy from the start. Atlanta’s pass defense is still the team’s Achilles’ heel, while the pass offense isn’t nearly as good as many seem to think it is. Since the start of last season, the Falcons rank just 24th in net yards per pass attempt.
Dishonorable Mention
The Chargers at home against the Chiefs was supposed to be a blowout; instead, San Diego was holding its breath until the game’s final minute. A slow September start is cliche for San Diego: the last five Septembers, the Chargers have been favored in 14 of 17 games, but have a record of 8-9 while going 5-11-1 against the spread. San Diego is 2-1 but has been underwhelming in both wins.
The big worry here isn’t that “it’s happening again” but rather that the malaise has spread to the passing offense. Even during ghosts of September past, Philip Rivers was fantastic. This year, Rivers has thrown a pair of interceptions each week while his big play and efficiency numbers have dropped.
Perhaps all the team needs is a healthy Antonio Gates, but the Chargers have looked more conservative on offense this season. According to Footballguys.com, San Diego has thrown 38 percent of its passes toward running backs, compared with 28 percent in 2008 to 2010. Mike Tolbert leads the team in receptions while Ryan Mathews is second in receiving yards. This may be a reflection of a small sample size rather than a shift in philosophy, but it’s worth keeping an eye on how the Chargers stretch the field over the next few weeks. San Diego led the league in yards per pass completion in both 2009 and 2010, but rank in the bottom half of the league in that metric three weeks into the season.
Pittsburgh defeated the Colts, but only by kicking a field goal in the final seconds. A close victory over the lowly Colts (Pittsburgh was a 10.5 point favorite) doesn’t hide the scary issues in Pittsburgh:
Four Super Bowl hopefuls — the Patriots, Jets, Eagles and Falcons — had the spotlight shine on their weaknesses this past Sunday. Two other teams escaped with wins thanks to the scheduling gods. For all six teams, this Sunday represents a chance to right the ship. New England (Oakland), the Jets (Baltimore) and Pittsburgh (Houston) will need to to fix their flaws to avoid a two-game losing streak; all go on the road against tough A.F.C. teams. The Chargers (Miami), the Eagles (San Francisco) and the Falcons (@Seattle) have a chance to show they won’t play down to their level of competition. The odds say that at least a couple of the teams scratching their heads today will be pulling out their hair a week from now.
Chase Stuart contributes to the Pro-Football-Reference.com blog and to Footballguys.com.
