In Week 7, Passing Defenses Continue to Show Pop

Last week, I wrote that the monster passing numbers from the first five weeks took a serious body blow in Week 6, evidenced by a huge decline in passing touchdowns. The knockout punch was delivered in Week 7. After teams averaged over 240 passing yards per game through the first six weeks of the season, the 26 teams playing in Week 7 combined for only 4,997 passing yards this past weekend, a paltry 191 yards per game. Nowhere was this more evident — on Sunday — than in Cleveland, as the Seahawks and Browns put on a pitiful display. The Browns and Seahawks combined for 435 yards and 9 points. It was the worst display of offense in a game not affected by severe weather in over a decade. The Colt McCoy pass attempt watch marches on: he threw 35 passes in a game in which the Browns allowed only 137 yards and 3 points.

But Cleveland-Seattle was just an appetizer for “Monday Night Football.” Against Jacksonville, the Ravens’ first 22 plays netted 6 yards. Baltimore had nine drives in the first half, and the Ravens never got close to getting a first down on any of them. Four of Jacksonville’s first-half possessions gained negative yards; a fifth series ended in a fumble. After 30 minutes, the game featured five fumbles, four first downs and just 29 yards of passing. Baltimore got its first first down with five minutes left in the third quarter. The two teams combined for 185 passing yards, the fewest in any game this season. Joe Flacco threw for only 137 yards on 38 pass attempts; only Jesse Palmer, Bobby Hoying, Kent Graham, Carson Palmer and Tommy Maddox have gained fewer yards on so many attempts since 1970. The Jaguars rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert wasn’t any better — the Jaguars gained  73 passing yards on 24 pass plays. Once again, don’t write the obituary on pass defense just yet.

Another Big Day for Forte

Matt Forte leads the league with 1,091 yards from scrimmage in seven games. As Michael David Smith pointed out this week, his production as a percentage of his team’s offense is even more impressive. In a sloppy game against Tampa Bay in London, Forte was the game’s lone star. This year, he has accounted for 43.6 percent of the Bears’ 2,505 yards from scrimmage. Maurice Jones-Drew (39.3%, Jacksonville), Fred Jackson (38.0%, Buffalo) and Ray Rice (37.1%, Baltimore) are the only other players that have gained at least a  third of their team’s offense. If Forte can keep up this pace, he will become the 19th player since 1940 to accumulate at least 40 percent of his team’s total yards from scrimmage.

Cornerback Heaven

The Kansas City Chiefs’ secondary took over a game Sunday. Left cornerback Brandon Flowers had two interceptions and returned one for a 58-yard touchdown. Right cornerback Brandon Carr intercepted a pass at the Kansas City 10-yard line to kill a Raiders drive before the half. Free safety Kendrick Lewis returned an interception 59 yards for a touchdown. Strong safety Jon McGraw had a fourth-quarter interception at the Chiefs’ 9-yard line to keep the shutout intact. Another defensive back, Travis Daniels, recorded Kansas City’s sixth interception of the day. What about Kansas City’s second-round pick from 2010, cornerback Javier Arenas? All he did was score a touchdown on offense, taking the snap as the Chiefs’ Wildcat quarterback and running 7 yards for the score.

Haven’t I Seen This Before?

In Matt Ryan’s first N.F.L. start, in Week 1 of the 2008 season, his first pass was a 62-yard touchdown strike to Michael Jenkins. In Christian Ponder’s first N.F.L. start, this past Sunday against the Packers, his first pass was a 72-yard connection to Michael Jenkins.

Gonzalez Reaches New Heights, as Do His Chasers

Tony Gonzalez caught five passes against the Lions, giving him 1,104 receptions for his career. That moved him into second place in N.F.L. history, behind only Jerry Rice. An incredible accomplishment for anyone, and Gonzalez is the only tight end in the top 20 on the career receptions list. He’s the greatest tight end in the history of the game, in my view, and deserves to be the first tight end to be inducted on the first Hall of Fame ballot.

But the record books may not be kind to Gonzalez for long. Antonio Gates became just the second tight end to catch 70 touchdown passes, and is “only” 22 touchdown catches away from tying Gonzalez (Gonzalez figures to make a run at the 100-touchdown mark).

With five catches against the Rams on Sunday, Jason Witten continues to be hot on the trail. Both Gonzales and Witten were rookies at age 21, and each missed only one game in their first eight seasons. That makes it easy to compare the two as Witten’s career progresses. Witten played in his 133rd game and has 653 receptions for 7,416 receiving yards. After 133 career games, Gonzalez had 595 receptions for 7,114 yards.

Burress Pulls a Bettis

Plaxico Burress played the role of hero Sunday, scoring all three Jets touchdowns to help lead a comeback against the San Diego Chargers. He also played the role of vulture: Burress became just the third player since 1960 to catch three touchdown passes while failing to gain at least 30 receiving yards. The first two? Tight ends Mack Alston (1975, Houston) and Eric Green (1990, Pittsburgh). Burress’s stat line for the day: 4 receptions, 25 yards, 3 touchdowns. His longest catch of the day was a 15-yard grab, on the one play in which he did not score. All of Burress’s touchdowns came from within the 5, making him just the fourth player in league history to score three touchdowns from inside that mark (Lance Alworth, Kellen Winslow Sr. and Marvin Harrison were the others). It called to mind Jerome Bettis’s 2004 season, when he had one game with 5 carries for 1 yard and 3 touchdowns and another with 6 carries for 9 yards and 2 touchdowns. Bettis led those Steelers in touchdowns, finishing ahead of… Plaxico Burress.

Emmitt Smith, Tony Dorsett… and DeMarco Murray

Tony Dorsett owned the Cowboys’ rookie single-game rushing record;  he rushed for 206 yards against the Eagles in 1977. Emmitt Smith set the Cowboys’ rushing record with 233  yards, also against Philadelphia, in 1993. DeMarco Murray pushed both of them aside Sunday. His 253 rushing yards on 25 carries were the second most by a rookie since 1960, trailing Adrian Peterson. He joined Corey Dillon and Jamaal Charles as the only players in that span with 250 rushing yards on over 10 yards per carry.

On the other side of the coin, the Rams came into the week last in rushing defense. The Cowboys proceeded to run for more yards (294) in Week 7 than any team since the Raiders in Week 7 of the 2009 season. St. Louis is just the third team in the past 15 seasons to allow at least 1,100 combined rushing yards in their first six games.

Rodgers Fantastic; Packers’ Pass Defense Opportunistic: For Now

Aaron Rodgers is starting to enter the rarefied air that Peyton Manning used to inhabit. He’s so good, no one cares when he’s great. Otto Graham and Norm Van Brocklin are the only two players to average over 10 yards per pass during an N.F.L. season, and both of them did it in eras when teams played fewer games and passed less frequently. Small sample sizes enable incredible performances in rate statistics, and Graham and Van Brocklin are good examples of that. But Rodgers is averaging 9.9 yards per attempt after throwing 238 passes, nearly matching the performances of Graham and Van Brocklin over full seasons. And thanks to a sparkling 20:3 touchdown to interception ratio, Rodgers has the single highest adjusted yards per attempt average of any player in any season, with a minimum of 230 pass attempts. Rodgers has averaged at least 10 adjusted yards per pass attempt in six of seven games this season, a feat no quarterback had accomplished in more than four of his team’s first seven games. His worst performance of the season so far was a career day for many quarterbacks: 28 for 38 for 297 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, in a 27-17 win in Chicago.

The Packers’ pass defense has been nowhere near as productive as Green Bay’s offensive counterpart. The pass defense has been more opportunistic than anything, leading the league in interceptions while ranking fourth in interception rate (interceptions per attempt). The Packers are catching 4.8 percent of opposing passes this season, trailing only the Bills, Chiefs and Jets. All four teams should expect their rates to regress toward the  league average for the remainder of the season. While those four teams have interception rates between 4.8 percent and 5.6 percent, no other team has intercepted even 4 percent of opposing passes.

History says that interceptions are largely random. From 1990 to 2010, 69 teams had interceptions rates of at least 5.0 percent after seven games. On average, those teams caught 5.8 percent of opposing passes while the league average rates for teams in those seasons was 3.3 percent. But over the remaining nine games, those teams had interception rates of just 3.7 percent (with the league average remaining at 3.3 percent). Those 69 teams went from interception rates that were 72 percent above league average to just 13 percent, essentially overnight. The Packers have the league’s best record, while the Bills have been one of the league’s surprise teams; the Jets have won three of their four games this season thanks in large part to Darrelle Revis interceptions, while the Chiefs won their third straight game after picking off six  Oakland passes. If those four teams want their success to continue, they will need more than interception luck the rest of the way.

Foster, Johnson, Going in Opposite Directions

In 2009, the Titans’ Chris Johnson rushed for 2,000 yards and set the single-season record with 2,509 yards from scrimmage. That year, Arian Foster was on the Texans’ practice squad for most of the season. In 2010, Foster led the league in rushing yards, rushing yards per game, rushing touchdowns, yards from scrimmage and total touchdowns. The contrast between the two players’ career trajectories was on full display on Sunday. Johnson rushed 10 times for 18 yards, and his 2.2 yards per carry average is last among the 50 qualifying rushers. Johnson could only sit and watch from the sideline as Foster shredded the Titans’ defense, becoming the first player since at least 1960 with 115 rushing yards, 115 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns.

I Do Not Pretend to Understand Tim Tebow

For the first 54.5 minutes on Sunday, the Broncos looked completely inept on offense: 11 drives, 158 yards gained, 8 punts, 2 missed field goals and one fumble lost. Tim Tebow had completed 4 of 14 passes for 40 yards, while rushing six times for 48 yards. Including sacks, he was responsible for 25 plays and had gained a total of 61 yards. The Broncos had not scored a point. In the last five and a half minutes, Tebow completed 9 of 13 passes for 121 yards and 2 touchdowns and ran twice for 17 rushing yards. That doesn’t include the game-tying 2-point conversion, scored on a quarterback off-tackle power run (great explanation by Smart Football’s Chris Brown differentiating this from a quarterback draw). He went from Ryan Leaf to Aaron Rodgers seemingly out of nowhere, and provided even more drama for both the Tebow haters and the Tebow fan club. But as the Big Lead’s Jason Lisk points out, if not for a miraculous onside kick recovery, the talk of the day would be Tebow’s miserable performance, slightly hidden by some garbage-time numbers. Such is the saga of Tebow.

A cautionary note: It was hard not to have flashbacks to Vince Young’s fantastic comeback against the Cardinals in 2009, when he led the Titans on an 18-play, 99-yard drive in the final minutes of the game.  On the last play, Young converted his third fourth down of the drive by throwing the winning touchdown pass. Young outdueled Matt Leinart – again — and led the Titans from 0-6 to 5-6. He received many of the accolades that Tebow is getting now, with comments that his “will to win” and intangibles mattered more than his passing prowess. The clock eventually struck midnight for Young, but don’t believe anyone who tells you he knows how the Tebow story will end.

Mike Wallace and Steve Smith Channel Their Inner Maynard and Alworth

From 1960 to 2010, only 17 players gained at least 700 receiving yards on 20-yards-per-reception in their team’s first seven games. Nine of those performances came during the high-flying 1960s, with over half of those coming from players in the American Football League. With the rise of the West Coast offense and other horizontal passing systems, only one player hit those thresholds between 1993 and 2009: Isaac Bruce. Brandon Lloyd caught 35 for 709 in the first seven games of 2010, and both Steve Smith and Mike Wallace are having big seasons as deep threats so far this season. Wallace led the league in yards per reception as a rookie in 2009, then increased his average reception length in 2010. But he has never been as productive as frequently as he has been this year. Smith had some huge years in the middle of last decade, and is now experiencing a career revival with the strong-armed rookie Cam Newton. Against the Redskins, Smith caught 7 passes for 143 yards, his fourth game of the season with at least 140 receiving yards and a 20-yards-per-carry average. Playing in Arizona, Wallace set a franchise record by catching a 95-yard touchdown pass, and became the first player since Isaac Bruce in 2000 with six straight games with at least one 40-yard reception. Don Maynard and Lance Alworth would be proud.

New Orleans and Manning Witness Another 62-7 rout

There have been two games in the history of the regular season to end with the score 62-7. Both games happened in New Orleans, with a dejected Manning on the losing team’s sideline wishing for better teammates.

In 1973, it was the Atlanta Falcons who roughed up the Saints in the season opener. Atlanta would go on to lose its next three games and score only 15 combined points, but the Falcons were near-flawless against New Orleans. Archie Manning ended the game on the sideline, after throwing five interceptions in 13 pass attempts.

The other game happened on Sunday night, also in New Orleans. This time the Saints rolled, making a mockery of a prime-time  matchup. Archie’s son Peyton looked on, helpless, as the Colts continued their descent into the bottom of the league.

Before the season, I thought that the Manningless-Colts would look out of sync and be without an identity, and could stumble to 3-13. That seems to have been an optimistic viewpoint.

As for the Saints, all of their aspirations remain in front of them. They remain a top Super Bowl contender, and Drew Brees’s presence means they can beat any team in the league. Brees now has 2,477 passing yards, the most since 1960 (and almost certainly ever) by a quarterback after his team’s first seven games. He’s over 400 yards ahead of where Dan Marino was at this point in 1984. That may be surpassed next week, though, if Tom Brady can pass for 315 yards or more against the Steelers.

Chase Stuart contributes to Pro-Football-Reference.com and to Footballguys.com.

N.F.L. Week 2 Film Review

A look back at some of the matchups in Week 2, via film analysis:

Texans O vs. Dolphins D
Houston’s front five controlled most of the game. The Texans had no trouble creating lanes with zone run blocks and exploiting Miami’s lack of physicality at inside linebacker. Ben Tate was an effective downhill runner but didn’t show the special change-of-direction power that Arian Foster has. Tate is good; Foster is great. Matt Schaub made use of a pocket that was clean for most of the afternoon. He took advantage of a Dolphins pass defense that was inconsistent in rushing the passer and susceptible at cornerback after Vontae Davis was hurt. The Dolphins hung in there well and did not give up many big plays; seven of the Texans’ points came on an extremely short field.

Dolphins O vs. Texans D
The Texans did a good job in underneath coverage and took away a lot of Miami’s short and intermediary passing game (Davone Bess and Anthony Fasano had minimal impacts receiving). This prevented Chad Henne from establishing a rhythm. Houston’s front seven was effective against both run and pass (a lot of Daniel Thomas’s 107 yards were a result of well-timed shotgun draws, not Miami purely out-executing Houston). The much-maligned Texans secondary (which features mostly new personnel from a year ago) did a good job of ruining Henne’s first and second reads.

Redskins O vs. Cardinals D
It was an ’80s style victory for the Redskins, as they controlled the action on the ground. The zone-blocking offensive line feasted on a Cardinals defensive front that, aside from tenacious Darnell Dockett, could not win fistfights in the phone booth. Washington’s left linemen – guard Kory Lichtensteiger and tackle Trent Williams – were extremely impressive in run-blocking on the move. Skins running back Tim Hightower, who fits this scheme because it allows him to build momentum early in runs rather than play stop-and-start, capitalized in the first half; fourth-round rookie running back Roy Helu showed off his surprising change-of-direction ability a few times in the second half. The Cardinals disrupted Rex Grossman’s sightline with their blitzes and got a better performance out of the secondary than last week, but mishandled coverages at the safety position proved costly in the fourth quarter.

Cardinals O vs. Redskins D
The Cardinals found a rhythm on the ground and through the air … just not simultaneously or consistently. In the first half, they didn’t have possession enough to delve into their playbook. An impressive early second-half drive that featured a lot of Beanie Wells was halted by a red zone interception that came courtesy of Kevin Kolb’s slight inaccuracy. Kolb threw plenty of pretty balls but things broke down a bit whenever he had to reset his feet (which was the case on the interception). Redskins rookie Ryan Kerrigan showed intriguing and versatile movement skills. He and Brian Orakpo were a handful outside (though Arizona survived those matchups). Something interesting and unusual the Redskins did was blitz their inside linebackers (especially London Fletcher), which consistently caught the Cardinals off-guard.

Steelers O vs. Seahawks D
There was nothing challenging about Seattle’s defense. It was a straight 4-3 with minimal blitzing and a vulnerable secondary. The Steelers used frequent three-step drops because wideouts Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown were quick enough to easily beat any Seattle corner off the line. Left cornerback Brandon Browner had the type of nightmarish game that some players never come back from. The 6-4 Browner appears to be too stiff in his change-of-direction and too slow in his makeup speed to be an N.F.L. starter. The Steelers’ makeshift offensive line survived but wasn’t great. It didn’t matter given Pittsburgh’s stark advantage at the skill positions.

Seahawks O vs. Steelers D
This was not a difficult game to analyze. The Seahawks didn’t have the talent to compete with the Steelers. The receivers couldn’t get separation. The offensive line, like most offensive lines facing Pittsburgh, couldn’t get enough ground movement (especially outside against LaMarr Woodley on the right and Aaron Smith on the left) to give Marshawn Lynch a chance. And Tarvaris Jackson is not sharp enough to throw every down against a quality D. Jackson does not read coverages well enough to anticipate receivers getting open. Thus, he has to see the receiver get open, which prolongs the play and results in disrupted timing and big defensive plays. The Steelers knew this about Jackson going in, which is why they rarely blitzed and  just played coverage, waiting for him to crumble. On the bright side for Seattle, rookie right tackle James Carpenter was steady in pass protection.

Bills O vs. Raiders D
The Bills’ offense was outstanding in the second half once it slightly scaled back the major spread formations and went to a more balanced run/pass approach. Ryan Fitzpatrick did a great job of recognizing blitzes and knowing where to immediately go with the ball. Fast-improving wideout Stevie Johnson won his personal matchup against corner Chris Johnson (if Stevie had been facing Nnamdi Asomugha, the Raiders probably would have won this game), and lanky inside receiver David Nelson created mismatches all over the field. Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller registered a handful of big runs, thanks in part to an obviously well-coached young Bills offensive line that played a near-perfect game mentally. Moving forward, one problem for the Raiders could be the limited athleticism of middle linebacker Rolando McClain. He can be a liability in both run and pass. The Raiders can only hope he’ll play quicker once he becomes more experienced and mentally secure (a la James Laurinaitis).

Raiders O vs. Bills D
The Raider offense certainly played well enough to win. Hue Jackson had a well-crafted plan that took advantage of his team’s strengths (i.e. Darren McFadden’s speed and versatility) and kept Jason Campbell comfortable through frequent use of screens and play-action. With the top three wideouts injured, that’s the approach Jackson had to take. Fifth-round rookie receiver Denarius Moore flashed serious playmaking potential. Moore is very raw but has tremendous speed and, as his late fourth-quarter touchdown showed, a natural feel for tracking and attacking the ball downfield. The Bills’ defense was not as awful as the score indicated, but the failure to generate  big plays (especially up front) allowed the Raiders to mount several methodical drives.

Andy Benoit is the founder of NFLTouchdown.com and an analyst for CBSsports.com. He can be reached at andy.benoit@NFLtouchdown.com or @Andy_Benoit.

2011 Houston Texans Season Preview

Andy Benoit is previewing all 32 N.F.L. teams. He wraps up the A.F.C. South today with a look at the Houston Texans. He wrote previously about the Colts, the Titans and the Jaguars.

It has become like waiting for Godot in Houston. It’s remarkable that Texans fans have once again rediscovered their optimism. We’re heading into, oh, about the fourth or fifth consecutive season in which Robert McNair’s club “should” be poised for a breakout playoff run. There has been just one playoff run in the franchise’s mundane nine-year history – an unsuccessful 2009 campaign that, ultimately, served only as a means for augmenting the disappointment of 2010.

Supposedly, this is really it for Gary Kubiak. It’s truly do-or-die. This  coming breakout ’11 campaign has brought about virtually the same approach as the coming breakout campaigns of ’10, ’09 and ’08: riding the stable, prolific offense and revamping the scheme of the talented but underachieving defense.

Kubiak’s saving grace is that he works most directly with the offense (a unit that has ranked fourth or better in total yards each of the last three seasons). It may be a statistically inflated offense that wins more fantasy games than actual games, but the point is no one blames the franchise’s futility on this side of the ball. The blame is cast upon that awful defense.

General Manager Rick Smith – who’s sharing the hot seat with Kubiak – has thrown ample resources at the problem. In the five drafts he’s overseen as general manager, Smith has used his first-round pick on defense four times. He’s also watched Kubiak hire three different defensive coordinators, which has brought about the multitude of system adjustments. The most recent is also the most drastic: Wade Phillips implementing the 3-4 he ran in Dallas, San Diego, Atlanta and Buffalo.

In reviewing Phillips’s resume – in the 1980s the son of Bum also served as D coordinator in New Orleans, Philadelphia and Denver – Kubiak and Smith were given a stark reminder about the peripatetic perils that await those deemed incapable of getting a team over the hump. It’s rich that their fate is now in the hands of the same man who could not survive similar trials in neighboring Dallas last season.

Offense

We generally kick off the offense section with a review of the quarterback. He’s the most important player on the team. Unless that team is the Texans. This offense is not built around Matt Schaub – it’s built around Andre Johnson. The taciturn ninth-year superstar is the best wide receiver in pro football – it’s not much of a debate, either – and focal point of just about everything Houston does.

By constantly changing up Johnson’s route tendencies and where he aligns in various formations, the Texans prevent a defense from finding a comfort zone and rhythm in its coverages. Defenses that get brazen and try to defend the 223-pound receiver straight up get burned (Johnson has great wheels and is too strong for most cornerbacks to even think about jamming). Defenses that commit the proper safety help leave themselves vulnerable to other mismatches – usually involving a linebacker on Owen Daniels.

Now more than a year removed from reconstructive knee surgery, Daniels will most  likely reestablish himself as the smoothest tight end in all the land. He has remarkably soft hands and a natural feel for turning upfield. While Daniels battled the knee in ’09 and a hamstring in ’10, the Texans discovered a second practical receiving tight end in Joel Dreessen. Dreessen is used as a blocker, too, and compensates for mediocre power with fantastic technique.

It’s a surprisingly typical receiving corps outside of Johnson. Kevin Walter is the gritty possession target underneath, and electrifying but unreliable Jacoby Jones is the field stretcher off the bench. Dorin Dickerson and a collection of undrafted youngsters are vying for the opportunity to replace David Anderson at the bottom of the depth chart.

As for the man throwing to these wideouts…there’s no refuting Matt Schaub’s credentials in this system. He’s had at least 4,300 yards and 24 touchdowns in each of the last two seasons. But one can refute the classification of Schaub as a big-time quarterback. Astute in Gary Kubiak’s West Coast style offense as he might be, Schaub doesn’t have the subtle anticipatory accuracy or sheer arm strength to consistently make the big-time throw under duress.

But Texan fans don’t need to get in a tizzy over this. Any offense that features a running back like Arian Foster can be just fine with a good-but-certainly-not-great quarterback. It was noble but foolish for the soon-to-be 25-year-old Foster to report to camp and sign his one-year restricted free agent tender of $525,000. That’s about a 45th of what he’s worth right now. As the N.F.L.’s defending rushing champion, Foster possesses a rare combination of power and agility that is ideal for any system but especially so for this one-cut downhill ground attack.

Foster will be without his Pro Bowl fullback, Vonta Leach, in 2011, though the addition of hard-nosed veteran Lawrence Vickers should offset enough of the loss (assuming former tight end James Casey doesn’t beat out Vickers for the starting fullback job; the Texans like Casey’s intelligence). The depth behind Foster epitomizes hit-or-miss. Scatback Steve Slaton has been everything from 1,200-yard star to bum in his four-year career. Derrick Ward, a 228-pound ersatz  Foster, has been everything from 1,000-yard star to, well, also bum. Both are capable of thriving in limited roles this season. But if neither does, the Texans can defer to Ben Tate, their bruising second-round pick of a year ago who was supposed to play a significant role before torn ankle ligaments and a fractured fibula put him on the shelf.

Somewhat surprisingly, this potent offense has a line that’s nothing special. It’s certainly adequate, though, as all five starters have the necessary mobility to execute the zone-blocking techniques that are the hallmark the rushing attack. Left tackle Duane Brown’s ordinary pass-blocking does not justify his ’08 first-round status, but he’s developing well enough. Versatile left guard Wade Smith is a favorite of Kubiak and offensive coordinator Rick Dennison. Center Chris Myers struggles in close quarters but has started every game since signing here in ’08. Right guard Mike Brisiel shares reps with third-year pro Antoine Caldwell, though both have been listed behind undrafted rookie Darius Morris on Houston’s most recent depth chart (motivational ploy for the veterans?). Right tackle Eric Winston, coming off the best of his five seasons as a pro, has evolved into a very stout edge-blocker in the run game.

Defense

First, the bad news. Wade Phillips does not have an archetypal 3-4 player at every front seven spot in his defense (Shaun Cody at nose tackle…really?) But the good news is Phillips doesn’t need archetypal 3-4 players at every spot. In fact, if his 3-4 in Houston is anything like the 3-4 he ran in Dallas, Phillips is really running more of a 4-3 that just happens to line up as a 3-4.

A lot depends on how he uses Mario Williams. If the two-time Pro Bowler plays the part of DeMarcus Ware in this scheme, then he’ll actually be a weakside defensive end who lines up without a hand in the dirt. Phillips always aligned Ware on the open side of the formation (i.e. away from the tight end) to ensure that his best pass-rusher would draw a one-on-one matchup off the edge. This is a distinct 4-3 principle that often causes the rest of the defensive linemen to play one-gap techniques (a staple of 4-3 defense).

Williams has the pass-rushing prowess to impersonate Ware, and he’s probably a better playside run-defender (we have to see how he takes on blocks coming from space). In terms of skills, Williams might actually be more comparable to Anthony Spencer, Dallas’s staunch (before last season) strongside outside linebacker.

Spencer’s ancillary role will be filled by a pair of second-round picks: 2009’s Connor Barwin and 2011’s Brooks Reed. Barwin, who missed all of last season with a dislocated ankle, flashed superb straight-line speed but unripe change-of-direction as a rookie. Reed, a tenacious linebacker/defensive end tweener, is said to be similar. If he struggles adjusting to the pro game, undrafted fourth-year pass-rushing specialist Jesse Nading could see reps.

The one-gap principles of Phillips’s defense make for an interesting case study at nose tackle. The 304-pound Shaun Cody does not have the initial quickness to become another version of Jay Ratliff. He also doesn’t have the rapacious build of a true clogger. But he moves fairly well and plays with better leverage than you’d guess. So basically, the Texans are hoping they can survive with a middling player at this crucial position. The only other option is Earl Mitchell, a 291-pounder who presents the exact same dilemmas as Cody.

First-round rookie J.J. Watt is expected to be an impact player right away at left defensive end, while at right defensive end, energetic veteran Antonio Smith is expected to harken back to his days in Arizona, where he was a disruptor on their three-man line. Watt’s and Smith’s contributions in run defense could prove critical, as its unknown whether DeMeco Ryans and Bran Cushing can fulfill the inside linebacking duties. Both had banner seasons in ’09 but plummeted in ’10 (Ryans tore his Achilles’ and Cushing floundered as a read-and-react player at middle linebacker; Cushing also showed less week-to-week explosiveness – noteworthy considering he served a four-game suspension for testing positive for a performance-enhancing-related substance). Ryans and Cushing at least both have the size to meet the physical demands of taking on blockers.

Houston’s front seven alignment is irrelevant if the secondary doesn’t become less pathetic (let’s just shoot for “less pathetic” before striving for “decent”). The only starter who hasn’t been replaced is last year’s first-round pick, Kareem Jackson, whom Phillips has already said needs to overhaul his technique. (Phillips’s quotation was refreshingly honest: “I guess he was able to play at Alabama without a lot of technique, without worrying about staying low enough or moving his feet. I think that caught up with him. I think we can coach him.”)

Jackson will no longer be the No. 1 corner charged with difficult man-to-man assignments. Rick Smith paid $23.5 million guaranteed for ex-Bengal Jonathan Joseph to assume that responsibility. Joseph is one of the best deep-ball defenders in the league.

Second-round rookie Brandon Harris will have an opportunity to fill his long-term slot position right away, as backup Brice McCain makes quarterbacks’ mouths water and former Dolphins first-round bust Jason Allen is best suited for a mix of limited safety/corner assignments as a dime back. (Although Phillips likes Allen and claims he’s not ruling him out for a starting gig.) Fourth-round rookie Roc Carmichael could also factor in.

Glover Quin is actually not a bad slot defender – he at least broke up passes with consistency last season – and could continue to fill this role, but that would require him to vacate his new strong safety position on passing downs. That won’t fly unless the Texans are comfortable putting Allen or Troy Nolan there. The fleet-footed Danieal Manning gets a chance to start anew at free safety after being in and out of the starting lineup for four years in Chicago.

Special Teams

Neil Rackers is one of the best in all of football. He booms kickoffs and is accurate under pressure. Longtime Bear Brad Maynard replaces Matt Turk at punter, unless undrafted Brett Hartmann keeps turning heads in camp. Coaches would like to see the former L.S.U. star Trindon Holliday stay healthy and emerge as the all-around return specialist, but he must learn the basics of the wide receiver position in order to justify a roster spot. Even if Holliday sticks around, Texan coaches may have trouble resisting the urge to use the electrifying Danieal Manning on kick returns.

Bottom Line

We believed in the Texans when they had a potent offense and seemingly rising defense, and in the end we came away feeling duped. So why would we believe in them when they have a still-potent offense but now a seemingly rebuilding defense?

Predicted Finish: 2nd A.F.C. South

Andy Benoit is the founder of NFLTouchdown.com and covers the N.F.L. for CBSsports.com. He can be reached at andy.benoit@NFLtouchdown.com.