Another Poor Showing by Sanchez

A capsule look at the Jets’ 17-13 loss to Denver.

KEY PLAY BY JETS

It will be forgotten after Tim Tebow’s final drive …. but the Jets’ first touchdown came in an unorthodox manner — a fumble recovery by guard Matt Slauson. The play that ushered them to the doorstep was helped by a textbook block by Brandon Moore, who cleared space for Joe McKnight on his 12-yard screen pass to the 1. Slauson became the first Jets offensive lineman to score on a fumble recovery since Randy Rasmussen on Oct. 8, 1972.

NOTABLE NUMBER: 5
That is how many Denver possessions began in Jets territory, resulting in 3 points. As the Jets hoped, their defense largely stuffed the run, forcing Tebow into passing situations. He overthrew some passes and underthrew others, but his receivers also struggled to gain separation against the cornerbacks. After going 3 for 3 on the opening drive, Tebow went 6 for 17, but scored the winning touchdown.

TALKING POINT
What do the Jets do now after another ineffective performance by Mark Sanchez?

Tim Tebow in His Words After Driving Denver to Victory

It looks as if we’ll just have to get used to it.

On the one hand, we have the headline “Tim Tebow Scores Late Touchdown On 95 Yard Drive To Win, After Doing Nothing All Game,” with Jason Lisk of the Big Lead correctly pointing out: “Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos offense was dreadful. Dreadful! For the first 54 minutes of the game.”

On the other, we have Woody Paige rhapsodizing in The Denver Post about The Drive Too: “Tebow went where Elway had gone before.”

Tebow continues to win and continues to drive analysts crazy. Let’s just let Tebow tell it in his words, as provided by the Broncos’ Web site.

On Denver’s final, game-winning drive

“First and foremost I just want to thank my lord and savior, Jesus Christ, and thank my teammates for believing in me and believing in each other for 60 minutes. I think, referring to that last drive, I think it was just a bunch of guys that kept fighting that had been knocked down a bunch of times but continued to get back up. I’m just so proud of those guys, for their resiliency, their patience and their determination.”

“We were aggressive. We went at them. [WR] Eddie [Royal] made a great play on the first (play). It was man-to-man (defense), and I threw him a swing, he made somebody miss, he got (eight yards). And then we were able to get some on the option. We didn’t necessarily have huge plays, but we just got enough to keep moving the sticks and found a way at the end, and [WR Demaryius Thomas] came up with a big catch, and the offensive line was just grinding, working hard and scratching for every single yard we could get. They made my job very easy there at the end.”

On what the offense talked about just prior to the drive
“[Offensive coordinator] Coach [Mike] McCoy just said, ‘Keep believing.’ When we were in the huddle, what we were talking about as an offense was: ‘You want opportunities like this because this is an opportunity for greatness as an offense. We haven’t done anything this whole game, but we have an opportunity to do something special right now. Let’s go out there and do it.’ Everybody was focused, and you could see that their will was taking over as an offense. I think that’s pretty special.”

“It was just important that we had a mind-set and everybody went out there and rallied behind each other and just gave it everything they had.”

On what McCoy said just prior to the drive
“We went over a few ideas, but we were ready to go back out there. He said a few things—it wasn’t a huge, long speech—but, you know: ‘Keep believing. Let’s go get this thing done.’”

On his game-winning touchdown run
“That was the second time in the game [the Jets] had blitzed everybody against us. And they were playing the corners pretty hard off, and we ran a three-vertical (wide receivers) concept against them, and I knew we were in field-goal range, and I didn’t necessarily just want to throw up a jump-ball because they were playing so far off. So when I knew they were blitzing everybody, and I saw [S] (Eric Smith) coming off the left side, and he came and he hugged tight. And I knew he was going to be extra because they were bringing one more guy than we could block, and I knew (the blocker) got a hand on him, and once he came tight, I just figured he wasn’t going to think I was going to try and get outside and escape. So I just believed that the tackle and the tight end were going to get the block, and that I could try to hopefully outrun him to the edge, and thank the Lord I was able to do so.”

“I don’t think (the outside) was supposed to be open. (Smith) was kind of the hugger, and he hugged tight against and stayed tight. So once he’s coming in and planting and trying to stay as tight as he can, thinking I’m going to be in the pocket … once I knew that, I just kind of jab-stepped and stayed outside, and he’s going this way, and I’m going that way. That’s hard for someone to really plant and get outside. I was very thankful he was running really hard and coming hard inside because that’s hard to make that cut, so it made it a lot easier on me getting outside of him.”

On if he was surprised by the Jets’ all-out blitz on the play
“We were kind of expecting it. They were going to be aggressive and try to stop us and could also [have] been expecting a quarterback run or quarterback draw, or something inside. So we had a great play against it, and Coach McCoy made a great call, and I was just thankful I was able to get around the end.”

On if he likes late-game drama
“I like winning, but I wish it wasn’t quite that stressful.”

On how he’s going to celebrate the win
“What’s special is I’ve got a lot of friends and family in for this game. [So] first, just thank the Lord and savior and hang out with my friends and family. Honestly, I played pretty hard, so I’ll probably be a little bit tired. [I’ll] go get a little bit of food and probably go to sleep.”

On if he plans on tweeting any of his critics
“I probably will tweet [former NFL defensive end] Hugh Douglas because I did hear that he said if we won he was going to church on Sunday. So I’m going to tweet him. He better be in his Sunday best! I hope he can sing praise and worship, too. So we’ll see.”

On what he’s thankful for this Thanksgiving
“That would be a long list, but just to share a few: first and foremost would be my Lord and savior, Jesus Christ, and I’d say behind that would be my family and also in this time is our military, who put their lives on the line every day for us so we can come out here and play a game. I’m very thankful for all three of those things.”

JOHN FOX, BRONCOS COACH
On Tebow
“Tim is going to be Tim. You don’t want to change too much about a guy that makes plays and makes plays in pressure situations. Our staff [Quarterbacks Coach] Adam Gase and [Offensive Coordinator] Mike McCoy have done a tremendous job of working with him and bringing him up to speed. We had a couple issues, but he’s a young player. He’s a young quarterback. It’s a very hard position, and those things are going to happen. He’ll just grow and get better with every snap.”

On Tebow’s character
“He’s just a competitive dude. He’s super competitive. He never lays his sword down. He’s going to fight you to death, and that’s just his nature. He’s a great young man.”

On the team’s faith in QB Tim Tebow during final drive
“When that happened it was like, we have 95 yards. Everybody was kind of like, ‘watch this.’ On the sideline it felt like we knew something was going to happen. People always say that when you win, but we felt like something was going to happen, probably because of the way we have been finishing games over the last couple weeks. Again, No. 15 [Tebow] proved to be very impressive on that drive.”

CORNERBACK CHAMP BAILEY

On  Tebow
“One thing about that quarterback: he is going to keep grinding. As a defense, we just have to keep him in this game – keep this team in the game and in the fourth quarter you never know what you are going to get. We are never out of it, and it is a good feeling because I know if we are close we have a chance.”

Rangers Surge Behind Balanced Scoring and Stalwart Defensemen

The Rangers enter Saturday night’s game in Montreal with a seven-game winning streak. Even after skating-intensive workouts, there were smiles in every corner of the Rangers’ practice facility this week.

“This has been a lot of fun because of the pride we put into each practice and each game as a team,” said defenseman Ryan McDonagh, an early-season standout. “We feel good about what we’ve accomplished because it hasn’t been our stars every night. Look around the room, and you’ll see everyone has contributed.”

Here are four keys to the Rangers’ winning streak.

Scoring Support

The Rangers’ highest-skilled and most compensated forwards — Marian Gaborik (4 goals, 3 assists) and Brad Richards (3 goals, 2 assists) — have been major factors in the run, but each was held off the scoresheet in three of the seven wins. The rest of team’s top six offensive forwards have stepped up: Ryan Callahan (5 goals, 3 assists), Derek Stepan (3 goals, 5 assists), Artem Anisimov (1 goal, 6 assists) and Brandon Dubinsky (1 goal, 5 assists).

“Confidence spreads through the team when so many guys are getting big goals,” Gaborik said. “We’ve had a different hero just about every night.”

The Rangers have out-scored their opponents, 27-11, over the seven wins.

“We’re making big plays at big times,” center Brian Boyle said.

In their most recent victory, a 4-2 win over the Islanders on Tuesday, Richards broke a 2-2 tie by converting a pass from Dubinsky with just under five minutes left in the third period. The Rangers’ nine game-winning goals this season have been scored by seven different players. Callahan and Richards lead the team with two each.

Standup Defense

The Rangers are without Marc Staal, their No. 1 defenseman, who remains sidelined with concussion symptoms. But two pairings of youngsters have embraced the responsibility of shutting down top lines. McDonagh, Dan Girardi, Michael Sauer and Michael Del Zotto are a combined plus-20 during the winning streak. Girardi has averaged 27 minutes 46 seconds of ice time, tops in the N.H.L. McDonagh, who averages just over 25 minutes a game, is 12th.

“With Marc out, we took it upon ourselves to do the job while he takes the times he needs,” McDonagh said.

McDonagh, 22, credits his playing time in the Rangers’ first-round playoff loss to Washington last April as the “wake-up call” for this season.

“In the good moments and bad ones, I learned a lot about a defenseman needs to do at this level,” he said.

McDonagh benefits by being paired with Girardi – at 27, the oldest and most accomplished of the group. The 21-year-old Del Zotto, a precocious puck carrier, is thriving alongside Sauer, a 6-foot-4 stay-at-home type. Coach John Tortorella said his team’s defense is the biggest factor in the Rangers’ knack for scoring clutch goals in close games.

“It’s our play away from the puck,” Tortorella continually stressed to reporters over the last week.

How each member of the blue-line quartet has improved over last season as measured by plus/minus per game:

Goaltending by Two

Henrik Lundqvist has a save percentage of .933, allowing just nine goals over his five wins in the streak. But his goaltending statistics are not even the best on his team. Martin Biron, his high-quality backup, shut out Winnipeg and gave up only two goals to San Jose in his pair of wins.

“Everyone knows Hank is one of the best goalies in the world,” Callahan said of Lundqvist, “but we have the luxury of two great goalies behind us. I don’t know how many teams can say they have the confidence in both our goalies like we do in Hank and Marty. We’ve made our share of mistakes in these games, and we really struggled early in the season. They’ve been our two of our most important players.”

There is an added benefit to Biron’s superb play. Lundqvist has played at least 68 games in each of the last five regular seasons. When the Rangers made the playoffs three of those years, he has not been fresh for the postseason. Tortorella’s trust in Biron should result in Lundqvist starting a more manageable 60 games.

Strong Work Habits

Despite the seven-game streak, the Rangers say it has been easy to stay humble.

“We want to get better each day,” Tortorella said of his team’s approach to practices.

Boyle said: “The good thing is, we’ve been far from perfect. So there’s been plenty for us to work on.”

After their victory Tuesday over the Islanders, the Rangers took one day to rest and then had two practices. Skills were sharpened in drills. Special teams play was adjusted. Line combinations, as always, were tinkered.

“Don’t get comfortable,” Tortorella said before his team left for Montreal. “We want our team to play the right way, and detail work is a part of it. To have a chance against Montreal, we’ll have to be better than we were against the Islanders.”

Rate This Jets Loss

A little free therapy for Jets fans … (It’s best to let it all out.)

What one play infuriated you the most from Thursday night’s loss at Denver?
(Non-Jets fans can play along, especially if you felt that the better team didn’t win.)

Mac from Atlanta, a Jets fan and Fifth Down commenting stalwart, gets us started. In another post, he pointed out two plays – the Mark Sanchez interception-turns-into-touchdown and this one:

The Jets’ second-to-last drive, where they had the ball at midfield and had a chance to run out most of the clock. After a short run and an incompletion: on 3rd and long as the Jets lined up, Brandon Moore pointed out an overload blitz from the right. Sanchez did not recognize it and adjust, rushed the throw and it went incomplete. Poor awareness and lack of adjustment meant a quick 3 and out. Granted those were only two plays, but to me they symbolize the problems with the offense this season.

Extra point Were does this game rank among the worst regular-season losses of the Rex Ryan era? It seems to be fairly competitive in that category with the blowout loss at New England last season (humiliating but the Jets were on their way to an 11-5 record) and the defeat at home to Atlanta the year before (after which Ryan incorrectly declared the Jets’  season over).

Week 11 Matchups: Ugly but Effective

Chargers (4-5) at Bears (6-3)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Bears by 3.5.

Lovie Smith does not get the credit he deserves. His coaching staff is filled with temperamental geniuses who have impulse control issues. The offense is loaded with divas: when Roy Williams comes across as normal, you know you are dealing with some Timothy Leary-level team chemistry. On paper, Smith’s blitzed-up take on the stodgy Cover-2 defense, built around the talents of 30-something linebackers, looks about as dangerous as a Toyota Celica with mag wheels. This is a team that strives to beat opponents with punt returns, for heaven’s sake. Yet Smith has coaxed winning records out of this collection of disparate parts and quarrelsome personalities four times in the last six years, and he currently has a team that was universally overlooked in the preseason in the thick of the wild-card race.
Norv Turner has also mixed playoff runs with .500 seasons during his Chargers tenure, but he has done so under much more favorable conditions: his division is much softer, he has an indisputable franchise quarterback and he does not have to hold the reins on assistants like Mike Martz. Turner needs everything to break right to win, and this year nothing has. The Chargers’ offensive line has been torn apart by injuries, with Marcus McNeill (neck) and Louis Vasquez (foot) unlikely to play Sunday and the All-Pro Kris Dielman (concussion) out for the year. Philip Rivers’ mysterious slump is not so mysterious when his blockers are Brandyn Dombrowski and Scott Mruczkowski and his receivers include castoffs like Patrick Crayton. Turner cannot win when his quarterback is throwing interceptions, whereas Smith is only now learning what it is like to win otherwise: that is as clear a contrast as you need between these two teams. Pick: Bears.

Eagles (3-6) at Giants (6-3)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Line: Giants by 4.5.

Andy Reid’s Traveling Cautionary Tale Tent Revival has arrived in town, and we are celebrating with a trivia quiz! Match the following Eagles Dream Teamers — a.) Nnamdi Asomugha, b.) Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, c.) Steve Smith, d.) Ronnie Brown, e.) Vince Young, f.) Jason Babin — with their unique accomplishments this season:
1.) I chase receivers with the enthusiasm of a teenager walking to the principal’s office after a food fight. 2.) My quarterback rating of 0.0 is lower than the punter’s, and I may be starting on Sunday! 3.) I line up offsides when not inexplicably covering Cardinals receivers not named Larry Fitzgerald. 4.) I am among the league leaders with nine penalties this season. 5.) I crumple untouched after catches in the open field as if the yellow television first-down line is real and made of plutonium. 6.) I throw the ball straight into the air while being tackled at the goal line.
There is also an essay: Explain how Andy Reid can simultaneously justify a 42-16 pass-run ratio when Michael Vick (questionable) has broken ribs, and grow testy when his reasoning is questioned.
The answers: 1-b, 2-e, 3-a, 4-f, 5-c, 6-d. If you need reasons why Giants General Manager Jerry Reese did not dive headfirst into the free-agent pool this off-season, here are six of them. The Reid essay has no right answer.
Standard warning: the Eagles, like poorly-constructed playground equipment, can still be dangerous. Pick: Giants.

Buccaneers (4-5) at Packers (9-0)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Packers by 14.

Like a flabby Hope Diamond, Albert Haynesworth is a fascinating, oversized trinket that brings nothing but misery to anyone foolish enough to acquire him. The Buccaneers signed Haynesworth and immediately inserted him into their defensive line; the results were 185 yards rushing allowed and a 37-9 loss. The Patriots, meanwhile, improved as soon as they rid themselves of Haynesworth. That is not scientific proof that Haynesworth is cursed, but perhaps he should be placed in the Smithsonian until there are further studies.
Aaron Rodgers has thrown just 18 incomplete passes in the last three games. One of those passes was a spike to stop the clock, three were throws out of bounds and four were dropped by open receivers. Count the drops as completions and take away the spike, and Rodgers’ completion percentage in the last three weeks is 84.7 percent. Some football stat-heads will tell you that completion percentage is a meaningless metric. That is true about 84.7 percent of the time. Pick: Packers.

Titans (5-4) at Falcons (5-4)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Falcons by 6.

Advanced statistical analysis reveals that going for it on fourth-and-1 from your own 29-yard line in overtime results in a 99.9 percent chance of a full week of second guessing. Mike Smith had probability on his side when he made his doomed decision against the Saints. He also had the league’s worst punter (Matt Bosher) facing one of the league’s best return men (Darren Sproles), so he may have feared a rare-but-traumatizing Dodge-to-DeSean punting gaffe when he made the call. Mathematicians call it the Black Swan Theory, because rookie punters can make experienced coaches wish they were watching Natalie Portman movies instead of football games.
The Titans and the Falcons are now second-place teams behind flawed, injury-plagued divisional front-runners who have byes. As compelling as this game may be, the real action is in the training and meeting rooms of the Saints and the Texans, where Sean Payton tries to cope with injuries to himself and others, and Matt Leinart acquaints himself with the children’s menu of the Texans’ playbook (“I can’t decide between the Donald Duck Zone Stretch to Arian Foster and the Andy Panda iso to Ben Tate!”) Pick: Falcons.

Bills (5-4) at Dolphins (2-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Dolphins by 2.
Having unsuccessfully game-planned for one opponent per week for most of the season, Dolphins coaches are preparing for two: the Bills on Sunday, and the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. “It’s tough because coaches can’t keep it to one game at a time,” Coach Tony Sparano said. “You can shrink it to the players. The only thing they’ll know is Buffalo and getting ready for Buffalo.” Shrink the Dolphins’ game plan too far, and it collapses into a Brandon Marshall Singularity from which only dropped passes can escape.
The Dolphins have gotten help in their back-to-back victories from an unlikely source: Reggie Bush, perpetual disappointment and current front-runner for Best Supporting Actor in a Reality Television Divorce Fiasco. “Something’s gotten into him,” tackle Vernon Carey said of Bush, who has run for 242 yards and 3 touchdowns in three weeks. Work ethic? Dignity? The realization that his name comes up more often on E! than ESPN has probably put a little spring in his step. Pick: Bills.

Cowboys (5-4) at Redskins (3-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Cowboys by 7.5.

The rookie sensation DeMarco Murray has rushed for 601 yards in the last four games, but that does not mean he has earned a starting job. Felix Jones may soon return from an ankle injury, and Cowboys Coach Jerry Jones (if he is not going to pretend otherwise then neither are we) gave conflicting reports during the week about how the carries will be divided when Felix Jones returns. “I haven’t seen enough of DeMarco,” Jones said, though he later explained that Murray would still get the bulk of the carries. That makes Felix Jones the nominal starter, an important position held by his predecessors, Julius Jones and Marion Barber. The nominal starter’s job is to not be as good as the backup, yet still lay claim to the starting role, allowing Jerry Jones to sound sagacious and quasi-mysterious when discussing his roster decisions during news conferences.
The twice-annual Cowboys-Redskins games serve the important purpose of making the Cowboys organization appear functional and sane by comparison. Pick: Cowboys.

Raiders (5-4) at Vikings (2-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Raiders by 1.

Both the Raiders rookie receiver Denarius Moore and the Vikings rookie tight end Kyle Rudolph made spectacular one-handed catches in prime-time games last week. While Rudolph has been a bright spot for the Vikings, Moore has kept the Raiders in the playoff picture by giving Carson Palmer exactly what he needs, on and off the field. “Denarius Moore doesn’t say anything,” Palmer told The San Francisco Chronicle. Having spent a year living through “The T.Ocho Show,” Palmer deserves a little therapeutic silence. Pick: Raiders.

Panthers (2-7) at Lions (6-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Lions by 7.

Lions Coach Jim Schwartz said that the 22-m.p.h. winds at Soldier Field, not a finger injury, hampered quarterback Matthew Stafford in the Lions’ 37-13 loss to the Bears. “The wind affected his actual throwing,” Schwartz said. “I don’t think it had anything to do with the actual finger.” Stafford’s virtual throwing and hypothetical finger were not affected. Schwartz also said that his team “didn’t respond well” to turnovers. Considering how often their games end in brawls, it is not clear if the Lions respond well to anything. Pick: Lions.

Jaguars (3-6) at Browns (3-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Even.

Two of the people on the following list are not on the Jaguars’ active roster. Can you spot them? The list: Guy Whimper, Leger Douzable, Julius Strangepork, John Chick, Cecil Shorts, Danny Rebus. Give up? Whimper, Douzable, Chick and Shorts are all real-life Jaguars. Rebus is a character on the new “Electric Company,” and Strangepork was the medical officer on “Pigs in Space.” Give the Jaguars credit for at least adding a little flair to their anonymity. Pick: Browns.

Bengals (6-3) at Ravens (6-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Ravens by 7.

Ray Rice carried the ball just five times in last Sunday’s loss to the Seahawks, which can only mean one thing: Andy Reid sneaked into John Harbaugh’s briefcase and fiddled with his game plans. Rice was steamed, and he did not talk to reporters after the game, explaining later that locker-room frustration “leads to disaster, leads to trouble, leads to people pointing fingers,” And disaster, trouble, and finger-pointing lead to extra-awesome game capsules! C’mon, Ray, some of us are trying to earn a living here. Pick: Ravens.

Seahawks (3-6) at Rams (2-7)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Rams by 1.5.

All four N.F.C. West teams won last week, the kind of cosmic convergence that makes you want to climb into a teepee and listen to old Yes albums until the lyrics make sense. The schedulers knew we could only take so much, so the N.F.C. West teams all face each other this week in a kind of toddler swim meet. The Rams have scored 13 points in back-to-back games, so it can be argued that their offense has found consistency, though 4 of those points came from their defense. The Seahawks are nearly unbeatable when you turn the ball over to them in the red zone three times. Pick: Rams.

Cardinals (3-6) at 49ers (8-1)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: 49ers by 9.5.

A predictable, rather sad quarterback controversy is brewing in Arizona after John Skelton’s back-to-back wins over the Rams and the Eagles. It is hard not to go through the motions on the Skelton vs. Kevin Kolb debate. Fordham bona-fides aside, Skelton is an adequate backup at best, his performance against the Rams (two safeties!) was dreadful, and the Cardinals are terrible. This is controversy as reflex, the automatic need to yell, “He provided a spark!” after even the least convincing victory by the guy off the bench. Skelton can only be successful if he faces a Juan Castillo-coached defense every week, with Larry Fitzgerald covered by linebackers and All-Pro pass rushers lined up a quarter-mile away from the quarterback. The 49ers, who actually know how to use their defensive talent, will not be as obliging as the Eagles. Pick: 49ers.

Chiefs (4-5) at Patriots (6-3)
Monday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Patriots by 15.

With Matt Cassel (hand) out indefinitely, the left-hander Tyler Palko takes over a Chiefs offense that has scored 13 points in the past two weeks. Todd Haley has reinstated his rotate-the-backfield lunacy, limiting the playing time of Jackie Battle (4.6 yards per carry) so he can find a role for Thomas Jones (2.9 yards per carry). So things are not going well for the Chiefs president, Scott Pioli, who may feel the urge to barricade himself inside his old office in Foxborough, Mass., and refuse to come out. Pick: Patriots.

Can the Packers Go Undefeated? (And Other Questions from Readers)

Judy Battista, who covers the N.F.L. for The Times, answers readers’ questions:

Six best teams in the A.F.C. right now?–zb, New York, N.Y.

Do I really have to commit to this in print (or the Internet)? I feel like this answer changes every week. Every team in the A.F.C. has at least three losses already, which means we don’t know much about who the dominant teams will be. But my six right now, in no particular order (and my answers could be different by the end of Sunday): Patriots, Steelers, Ravens, Texans, Oakland, and probably Bengals. The Jets would have been in that spot before Thursday night’s disaster.

Can the Texans retain their dominance in the A.F.C. South (and A.F.C. as a whole) without their starting quarterback at the helm?–bearTrapster, San Antonio

I don’t think we can answer this until next week, when we see how Matt Leinart looks. But certainly the Texans a few things going for them: a really good running game and a really good defense. That should help take the pressure off Leinart. They can certainly win the A.F.C. South – that’s a two-team race and the Titans have been erratic. Can they be dominant in the A.F.C.? That, I’m not sure of. If they get into high-scoring games with the Patriots or Steelers in the playoffs, for example, could Leinart keep up? Let’s wait and see. This is a tremendous opportunity for Leinart to resurrect his career.

Judy, do you think that the Jets will start looking at other possible candidates for QB as a possible alternative to Sanchez? Or are they going to keep all their eggs in his basket?–bigstevef, Grahamsville, N.Y.

No, I do not think they will look elsewhere. I think his recent play is a big, big concern – to my eye, he seems to be, at best, not improving and possibly regressing. Thursday’s performance was troubling, to say the least. He has no confidence, the coaches seem to have no confidence in him. But he has won four playoff games on the road in his first two years and they have gone to the A.F.C. Championship game twice. Yes, I know he had the benefit of a great defense and a good running game then. But to be fair, the troubles right now are not all Sanchez’s doing (although the pass that was intercepted and returned for a touchdown Thursday night – yikes!). The offensive line is definitely diminished, as is the running game.

Most of all, they have a lot invested in Sanchez. They traded up to draft him. They have paid him a lot of money. They have made him the face of the franchise – if anybody other than Rex can truly be the face of the franchise. And those playoff runs go a long way for team executives, even if Sanchez is now a significant concern. I can’t see them abandoning that after just three years.

The Packers are looking like the favorite to take the N.F.C. championship this year. Are there any other teams that look like they may be able to dethrone them?–Andrew S., NW Florida

Of course. First of all, one bad shot to Aaron Rodgers and the whole equation changes. But teams that could beat them: the Saints, because of their scoring ability; the Niners, because of their defense; the Giants, because of their pass rush. Let’s not forget, nobody thought the Patriots could be beaten in the Super Bowl three years ago.

The Eagles have landed.–Technic Ally, Toronto

With a thud.

Do you see the Jets holding onto Sanchez as their franchise quarterback? How bad would he have to be before they start searching for other options? He’s in this third season already, when can we expect to see some serious progress? Eli has improved every season and now he’s at the peak of his game, can we look at Sanchez in the same light?–Dan, Irkutsk, Russia

As I said above, I don’t see them giving up on him, considering they’ve won four playoff games on the road with him. I’m not sure you can say Eli improved every season – last year was a pretty bad year for interceptions, even though a bunch came on tipped passes. He is having an exceptional year this year, though. I’m not sure Sanchez will ever become the dominant kind of passer that Brady, Peyton Manning, Rodgers, Brees are, but he has elevated his game in the post-season the last two years and that’s a good sign. He has shown he can be a functional quarterback and when the Jets surround him with a good running game and a good defense they have proven they can go far with him.

Why the inflexibility of having flex scheduling for Sunday and Tuesday night? Can’t the league let the networks have their choice on Sunday and then allow NBC and ESPN choose from the rest for Sunday and Monday?–Waffle, Lincoln City, Ore.

I’m not sure I understand the question because there is no Tuesday night game. The idea of flex scheduling is to have the most critical games in prime time late in the season and to keep unimportant games out of prime time (for example, the Colts-Patriots game has already been moved out of prime time), while also allowing CBS and Fox to “protect” some games they don’t want to give up (like when the Giants play the Packers – that game would have been a no-brainer for NBC to take for Sunday night, but Fox “protected” it for itself). There are limits to the flexibility for a few reasons. Moving the game causes inconvenience for fans, who purchase tickets assuming they will be going to a game at the designated time, only to find out 10 days before that the time has changed. And I can’t imagine you could have games changing from Sunday to Monday or vice versa, because that creates travel chaos for teams, fans and the networks themselves on very short notice.

What’s your take on the Colts? It’s hard to believe Manning was solely responsible for lifting an otherwise atrocious team to elite status.–Mario, Brooklyn

Not that hard to believe that Manning elevated the whole enterprise, actually. Manning is an extraordinary player who has complete command of the offense and is intimately involved in putting the game plan together. The entire Colts roster was structured to enhance and exploit Manning and the passing game. They spent big on receivers, not on running backs. They didn’t have a big-time backup quarterback in place because Manning was an ironman until this season. They didn’t need a great running back, or a great run-blocking offensive line. They built a small, fast defense with the idea that they would most often be playing with a lead, so rushing the opposing passer would be paramount.

What really sent the Colts into a tailspin is that they realized very late that Manning was going to be unavailable. For most of the off-season, even when training camp started, they thought – at worst – that he might miss the first few weeks. But they only realized that he needed the third surgery a few days before the season started – not much time to find an experienced backup, nor get him ready, not make changes to the rest of the roster that could allow them to change styles of offense. They have some other talented players on the team – Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Dwight Freeney, etc. – but all of what those guys do is set up by what Manning does.

Having said all that, did I expect the Colts to be winless? No way. Worse, they have started to look non-competitive, which to me is a sign that guys who have had very little experience with losing have started to give up and are now convinced they CAN’T win.

What’s the team to beat in the A.F.C.?–Justin, Quad Cities

Honestly, who knows? Just when you think we’ve established the best team in the conference, they lose – sometimes in confounding fashion. The Steelers looked dominant when they beat the Patriots, then they gave up a last-second touchdown to the Ravens at home and the Ravens look unstoppable. Until the Ravens lose to Seattle, one of the worst teams in the entire league. And then the Patriots dominated the Jets. That would have led me to believe that the Texans were the team to beat – they have been the most consistent, have a good running game, good passing game, very good defense. Except that now their starting quarterback, Matt Schaub, is done for the season. If I had to say right now, I’d probably pick the Steelers, because they seem most balanced, have an excellent quarterback and have proven they can win close games in the playoffs. But don’t hold me to that.

Do the 49ers re-sign Alex Smith after this season?–Gopal, San Francisco

Yes, I think definitely so. Harbaugh has worked wonders for Smith and the team likes the leadership role he took during the lockout when, as a free agent, he took it upon himself to learn the offense and lead workouts with players. They have to be considered a favorite to at least make the N.F.C. Championship game right now – how do you not re-sign the quarterback, who will come a lot cheaper than most, who gets you there, and give him a regular off-season under Harbaugh’s tutelage?

Where does Matt Flynn end up next season?–Cottsb, MN

Wow. It’s early for these kinds of questions. First we have to figure out at the end of the season how many teams need quarterbacks and then you have to gauge if those teams think he is better than what they can get out of the draft. If he gets no significant playing time this season, it’s awfully hard to judge his potential beyond being a backup.

Eli Manning has always shown consistent ability in executing the no-huddle, hurry-up, two minute offense. Why don’t the Giants use this attack more often, especially when they appear flat during extended periods in games?–Vincent, New York, N.Y.

Because that is not the team the Giants want to be. In the past, when they have gone to a more pass-heavy offense, it has not worked and they knew they had to go back to running more regularly. This is part of their overall philosophy of physical football, highlighted by a stout defense. The no-huddle is a great change-up for them and Eli does seem to execute it well and I agree that I’d like to see more of it when they look flat. But the Giants have their style and they’re sticking with it.

Despite all the talk that has started about the Packers going undefeated, I think back to the Patriots’ recent undefeated season and worry that the same thing could happen to the Packers, assuming they aren’t upset earlier in the playoffs.

What do you think are their chances for going 16-0? The game I’m most concerned about is Thanksgiving Day in Detroit. Wasn’t that their only loss in 1962? And wasn’t Lombardi so mad about it that he ended the Packers’ participation in the Thanksgiving Day game?–Art Kraus, Princeton, N.J.

I certainly agree that the Lions game seems like an obvious time for a loss, but the Packers also play the Giants in December in New York, plus have another game against the Bears, although it is at Lambeau. But I think their chances are pretty good that they go 16-0 as long as Aaron Rodgers does not get hurt. The Packers have a few advantages over the Patriots if they go undefeated – first of all, since the Patriots already completed an undefeated regular season, the Packers’ run at it won’t draw as much attention. And the Patriots’ made their run at perfection in the season that began with Spygate, which really ramped up the focus and pressure on the team. By this time in 2007, many national writers – myself included – were covering every Patriots game. That won’t happen for the Packers until very late. One more thing about the playoffs: We saw what happens when a team purposely loses a game in the regular season – the Colts did that and then made it to the Super Bowl and then lost. So there is no formula yet to finish a perfect season except the one by the 1972 Dolphins.

What’s your take on the Jets’ offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer? I feel that if they replaced him and allowed Mark Sanchez to pass more their offense would be more dynamic and he would progress further than he has already. It would give him more confidence and they could then beat teams like New England. Plus their running back Greene doesn’t seem to be the answer. And how about adding Randy Moss to the mix?–smolderingbrute, New York, N.Y.

After last night, I fear that you are curled up somewhere in the fetal position. Let’s get one thing out of the mix: Randy Moss? No. You already have combustible personalities in Plaxico Burress and Santonio Holmes and you want to add Randy Moss? No, no, no. And there is a reason Moss is not on a team now – teams think he is either done, or more trouble than he’s worth at this point in his career.

Moving on: I wonder if you think they should put the ball more in Sanchez’s hands after seeing how he played last night – that interception he threw was a killer, and a terrible decision on his part. It’s pretty clear the Jets coaches don’t have much confidence in Sanchez right now, and he’s giving them plenty of reason to feel that way. Don’t forget, they went with more passing earlier in the season and that didn’t work, so they went back to Ground and Pound. I’m not defending Schottenheimer – I don’t think the Jets’ offense has shown much rhythm this season no matter what they tried. But his play-calling is also a product of a quarterback who is not progressing, and an offensive line and running game that are not anywhere near the quality of last year’s.

The basic questions: What is the take on the Q.B.R. in the football world outside of ESPN? Have there been many instances of ratings which seem wildly off base to many observers?

The Back Story:

I stumbled upon an odd contrast in the course of discussing Tim Tebow’s Q.B.R. with some other bloggers. Tebow’s Q.B.R. ranking for the Week 9 Raiders game was 21 near the bottom of active QBs, and in the Chiefs game the following week he bounced up into elite company at number 7.

In the big picture Tebow’s performance looks roughly the same in these two Broncos victories. No turnovers and a low pass completion percentage combined with some impact plays in both phases of the offense. In two games that were controlled on the ground by the Broncos offense, Tebow’s rushing in the Raiders game (13 runs for 118 yards) was approximately double what he produced the following week in Kansas City. He had one bad sack (11 yds) and more penalties (delay of game) against the Raiders.

Basically you’ve got a QB who is making a major contribution to controlling the game, directly producing over 240 yards of offense with 2 TDs and zero turnovers. He is rated near the bottom of the league with guys who are destroying their teams with picks. The next week he plays the same type of game, weaker in some respects, and he’s near the top of the league.

The more you dig into a comparison between these two games the less convincing the Q.B.R. scores become. The relative weighting of rush versus pass and big plays versus small plays all might play a role in producing some odd results. I can’t help but wonder what questionable assumptions are built into ESPN’s breakdown of plays and their probability models. Penalties played an unusually large role in the Raiders game, and that might be an interesting anomaly. Shouldn’t a QB get some credit for defensive penalties directly related to attacking the QB or the passing game?–ianicol, Colorado

I haven’t studied ESPN’s formula enough to know how they arrive at their figures, but most players dismiss quarterback ratings of all kinds – even the traditional one used by the league raise eyebrows because of its skewed results — and I’m pretty certain the Broncos wouldn’t care what his rating is. The Broncos are 4-1 since Tebow became the starter and are, incredibly, in the A.F.C. playoff mix. That’s the only ranking that matters.

Why is “spiking” the ball not considered “intentional grounding?”–SL, Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

Because of the intent, which is usually pretty clear in both cases. Spiking is meant to stop the clock in a hurry-up situation. Intentional grounding is obviously an effort to avoid losing yardage by throwing the ball away to avoid a sack.

What records do you anticipate that Aaron Rodgers will break this season? Whichever ones he wants?–95711, Appleton, Wis.

I think it depends what kinds of games the Packers are in at the end of the season and if the Packers make the decision to give him some rest before the start of the playoffs. Marino’s record for single-season passing yards (5,084) is in reach, so is Drew Brees’s record for completion percentage (70.6), and so is Tom Brady’s passing touchdowns record (50), and Peyton Manning’s for passer rating (130.7). But again, the Packers are going to clinch early and depending on whether they are motivated to try for an undefeated season (or whether that is still in play late in December), they may opt to let Rodgers rest.

If the playoffs started today, the two wildcard teams would each come from the same division, in both conferences: Baltimore and Cincinnati in the A.F.C., Detroit and Chicago in the N.F.C. What is the likelihood of three teams from the same division (the division winner and two wildcards) all making the playoffs, and has that ever happened before?–zb, New York, N.Y.

It’s not quite as rare as you’d think. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, since 2002, when the division and playoff format changes, it’s happened three times. In 2007, the N.F.C. East and the A.F.C. South both produced three playoff teams. And in 2006, the N.F.C. East did it. Not surprisingly, it happened more frequently when the NFL had five-team divisions.

What do you think the Colts should do to rebound from this year’s disaster?–LM, Elgin, S.C.

One good thing about seasons like this: they remove all the varnish from a team. I don’t expect owner Jim Irsay to remove the Polians as the top decision-makers. Jim Caldwell and the entire coaching staff might pay the price, though. Then, assuming the team has the first pick, they have to take Andrew Luck. They will then have to decide what to do about Manning. Keep him and let him mentor Luck? Trade him? Let him go completely? But aside from the massive quarterback decision, there are many, many needs that haven’t been met over the years and which have been covered up by Manning’s brilliance. The offensive line, the defense as a whole, the running game. To prepare for life after Manning, whenever that moment arrives, the Colts have to become a more balanced team. Certainly if they have Luck, they will always be pass-first, but the Colts have proven the risk of leaning too heavily on just one person.

The Colts’ off-season will be one of the most fascinating in years, from the first decision about whether to keep Caldwell and the Polians, to the quarterback quandary to the moves they make in the draft and free agency.

Without Fanfare, Belichick and Brady Become Top Coach-Quarterback Combination

An underreported storyline from last Sunday’s Jets-Patriots game was that Bill Belichick and Tom Brady became the winningest head coach-quarterback tandem of the Super Bowl era (since 1966). They registered their 117^th regular-season victory to move past Don Shula and Dan Marino, who totaled 116 for the Miami Dolphins from 1983-95.

The Belichick-Brady run is an impressive achievement that has not been without some storm clouds. In February 2002, Belichick chose to start Brady instead of Drew Bledsoe in the Super Bowl against St. Louis. It was not an easy decision. Bledsoe had replaced an injured Brady in the A.F.C. Championship game at Pittsburgh, and Bledsoe threw a clutch touchdown pass on the way to leading the Patriots to a 24-17 victory.

Brady had struggled in the six games before the A.F.C. Championship, throwing only two touchdown passes with six interceptions. Also, Brady had replaced an injured Bledsoe earlier that season. The case was made that Bledsoe deserved to reclaim the starting job. The popular Bledsoe had been the Patriots starter since being drafted first overall in 1993, while Brady was taken in the sixth round in 2000.

But Brady led the Patriots to a 20-17 victory in Super Bowl XXXVI and was named its most valuable player.

Most coach-quarterback tandems do not win a championship so early in their terms with a team. The Patriots’ Super Bowl championship over St. Louis came in Belichick’s second year. New England was 5-11 in his first season. Brady was in his second year as well, but he didn’t get his first start until Bledsoe got hurt in 2001.

But win-now formulas are always tempting. And if general managers and coaches have tenuous holds on their jobs it is difficult for them to think long-term.

I researched the 32 N.F.L. teams to find out where each currently stands in the head coach-quarterback wins category. It’s clear which teams put a premium on continuity and stability. Here are the top 10, in order of total victories:

131-40, Belichick-Brady, New England   Passing Shula and Marino after winning three Super Bowls? Enough said.

70-49, Tom Coughlin-Eli Manning, Giants  That this pair is second on the list is notable, considering how many times fans and commentators have called for either or both of their dismissals. Weekly booing of Manning occurred as late as 2007, right before the Giants’ Super Bowl run.

60-35, Sean Payton-Drew Brees, New Orleans  Saints General Manager Mickey Loomis struck gold in 2006 by landing Sean Payton as a first-time head coach and Brees as an accomplished quarterback coming off a shoulder injury. Their Super Bowl Championship came after the 2009 season.

52-23, Mike Tomlin-Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh   Tomlin replaced Bill Cowher in 2007, and the Steelers won their seventh Super Bowl in his second season. Roethlisberger won a Super Bowl with Cowher after the 2005 season.

48-31, Norv Turner-Philip Rivers, San Diego   The first of the top pairings not to have won a Super Bowl. Turner and Tomlin are the two most prominent examples of coaches who joined a team where the quarterback was already established.

42-22, John Harbaugh-Joe Flacco, Baltimore   Harbaugh was hired and Flacco was drafted prior to the 2008 season, when they had their best success by reaching the A.F.C. Championship game before losing to Pittsburgh.

40-21, Mike McCarthy-Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay   After hovering near .500 for almost three seasons, the Packers are 16-0 since Rodgers returned to the lineup after being knocked out of a game with a concussion last season against the Lions.

38-19, Mike Smith-Matt Ryan, Atlanta   Like Harbaugh and Flacco, both were brought in before the 2008 season. They are 0-2 in the postseason.

32-32, Gary Kubiak-Matt Schaub, Houston   Schaub was brought in for the 2007 season, but the Texans haven’t reached the playoffs since joining the N.F.L. in 2002. Schaub’s foot injury puts a crimp in what is shaping up to be the Texans’ best season.

28-18, Rex Ryan-Mark Sanchez, Jets   Thanks to four postseason victories, the Jets crack the top 10 in only the third season of the Ryan-Sanchez pairing. They are the most accomplished of the 2009 class.

Other pairings with more than 10 victories together are: Jim Caldwell-Peyton Manning, Indianapolis (26-10); Lovie Smith-Jay Cutler, Chicago (24-18); Todd Haley-Matt Cassel, Kansas City (18-22); Raheem Morris-Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay (17-17); Tony Sparano-Chad Henne, Miami (13-18); Andy Reid-Michael Vick, Philadelphia (11-10).

Extra Point  Is it fair to draw a correlation between long-term franchise success and continuity and stability in the head coach-quarterback tandem?

Parenting Wisdom From a Mining Town

About four years ago this week, I traveled to Big Stone Gap, Va., to spend two days with the parents of two N.F.L. running backs, Thomas Jones, and his younger brother, Julius, then starters for the Jets and the Dallas Cowboys. What struck me most about their family was not that two of seven children ended up sharing an N.F.L. job title – what are the odds? – but that all seven children from that town in coal country in southwest Virginia went to and graduated from college.

This story resulted from that trip. And when I left, I remember thinking that the Thomases should write a book. Well, it turns out that they did.

The book can be found here, with additional background here.

What follows are the thoughts of the family patriarch and first-time author; everyone calls him Big Thomas.

You and your wife, Betty, both worked in the coal mines. Did you ever think you’d write a book?

Never once did we see ourselves putting our story, regardless of what kind of story it was going to be, to pen to paper. But there was an educator about 30 years ago, when Thomas and the kids were in elementary school, and he said you should write a book about parenting one day. We kind of laughed. But here we are. We’ve been working on this thing for the last three years. It was brand new for us, as far as doing a book. We didn’t really know so much involvement goes with such things.

Why do you think your story resonated with people so much that it ended up in a book?

Basically, family. Even though it’s a synopsis of our family, and it’s called a memoir, it’s basically an American story. There are so many families similar to ours who have done just an admirable job, maybe more admirable than we have. The book shows some of the things that families go through, some of the hardships, and how we overcame them.

What’s your favorite anecdote from the book?

There were many of them in there. But for me, it was seeing all of them, the last in particular, child No. 7, Katrice, finish high school, gain admittance into the University of Virginia and graduate from there. That was one of the proudest moments for me. It rivals the birth of my first son.

What does the book cover?

It covers basically the origin of my family and Betty’s family here in the deep South, in Alabama, and the places we go in an effort to find a better lifestyle, a better way of life. We homed in specifically on southwest Virginia because that’s where our parents ultimately found work, albeit in the coal mines. We highlighted our school years, our ensuing marriage, all of it. And we talk about parenting.

What’s the best single piece of advice in that regard?

Raising them the right way and not the popular way. Make decisions as a parent that will be the best and for the betterment of all involved and not to make decisions which are best for the parents. It’s still all about the family.

Let’s talk a little football. How has Thomas dealt with this season in Kansas City?

It has been a rocky one for him. Ups and downs. At this point, more downs than ups. It’s been that way for them even as a team. As we speak, a bad moon is rising to come in Monday night in New England. Usually they show up and perform well in very big games. But, yes, I do think this season is kind of a carbon copy of what families go through. Bad things can happen. So be it. It’s all about how you react to them.

Thursday Matchup: Jets at Broncos

Jets (5-4) at Broncos (4-5), 8:20 p.m. Eastern, NFL Network and Ch. 11 in New York area
Line: Jets by 6.

The Broncos won, 17-10, last week against the Chiefs, an opponent that had lost by scores of 41-7, 48-3, and 31-3 (to the Dolphins) this season. The Broncos netted just 312 yards of offense, and their quarterback, Tim Tebow, completed just two of his eight passes. When running backs Willis McGahee (hamstring, questionable for Thursday) and Knowshon Moreno (knee, out) were injured, Coach John Fox elected to give the third-stringer Lance Ball 30 carries, with Spencer Larsen, a converted linebacker, taking 5 more handoffs as a change of pace. The Broncos elected to run 10 times on third down with more than 4 yards to go, converting just one of those plays.

It takes some warping of reality and splintering of rational thought to watch a team hand off to an ex-linebacker almost as often as it passes the ball, surrender on nearly every third down and score 17 points against an awful opponent, and reinterpret all of this as a sign of its quarterback’s singular greatness.

But ignoring the obvious is the American way. The Broncos are not trying to hide an inept passer behind child-proofed game plans that can work only against terrible defenses. Instead, they are ushering in a new era of running-based football behind the paradigm-shattering talents of a player who hands off like no other.

Fox even dismissed the need for a passing game this week. This is offense based upon the withholding of success, austerity by design, and Fox is making a great show of being thrilled with it.

Of course, there’s a chance that the simplest solution is the correct one: the Broncos have gutted out close wins against bad opponents but they will collapse against a strong defense, and option-style gadget plays have a limited N.F.L. shelf life. But then, even Occam’s razor may be no match for Tebow Mania.

Pick: Jets
(Pick does not reflect the betting line)

Jets at Broncos: Matchup to Watch

Jets (5-4) at Broncos (4-5), 8:30 p.m. Eastern Thursday

Matchup to Watch: Tim Tebow vs. Jets’ defense

One can only imagine the defensive schemes Rex Ryan has concocted to foil Denver’s read-option offense, which ran the ball 55 times — and attempted but 8 passes — in Sunday’s victory in Kansas City. The Jets at times deployed seven defensive backs to thwart New England’s passing game; Ryan might send seven down linemen against Tim Tebow. Maybe that’s an exaggeration. But it will be a challenge for the Jets, who had a short week to prepare for a peculiar but effective style that suits Tebow. Jets safety Jim Leonhard said, “As inconsistent as he is throwing the football, all of a sudden he’ll make a throw where you look at it and go, ‘Wow, that was impressive.’ ”

Number to Watch: 22

The combined sacks (8) and quarterback knockdowns (14) amassed by Broncos linebacker Von Miller — the most in the N.F.L., according to ProFootballFocus.com. The Jets’ pass protection was dreadful against New England, yielding five sacks and nine hits of Mark Sanchez, against a team with a suspect pass rush. The Broncos, with the dynamic duo of Miller and Elvis Dumervil — dubbed “Batman and Robin” by Miller — wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks. Sustained pressure against Sanchez, who showed little sense of pocket presence Sunday night, could spell doom.

Quotation of the Week

“Well, it doesn’t make much sense. It’d be like buying a Ferrari and pouring sugar in the gas tank.”

Broncos Coach JOHN FOX, when asked whether he and John Elway, the team’s vice president for football operations, did not want Tim Tebow to succeed because they did not draft him.

Week 11 N.F.L. Game Probabilities, and the Tebow Factor

Tim Tebow is breaking the game probability model. How can a quarterback lead his team to victory while going 2 for 8, for 69 total passing yards? It’s widely accepted that passing efficiency is the main driver of team success, but what if an astounding 8.6 yards per attempt comes on only two completions?

Tebow is 3-1 as a starter this season. So how is he doing it? Is it with his arm, his called runs, or his scrambles? It’s none of the above. It’s with defense and special teams.

At my Web site, I rely on two statistics to parse apart each player’s contribution to game outcomes. Win Probability Added (WPA) measures how much a player’s direct participation changed his team’s chances of winning the game. Expected Points Added (EPA) measures a player’s impact on the net score difference. One of the advantages of stats like WPA and EPA is that they are agnostic as to whether a play was a pass or run, or any other type of play. This allows us to measure the total contribution of a player in a single number.

Tebow is decidedly negative in both of those stats for the full season (-0.35 WPA and -13.3 EPA), but fortunately for the Broncos, the vast majority of the damage was confined to a single game: his second start in a game against the Lions.  A closer look at his numbers indicates he has performed modestly well in his other three starts.

Against Miami, Tebow performed poorly until the last few minutes of regulation, when he rallied the Broncos to tie the game. His last-minute heroics may have been thrilling, but they were needed only because of the hole he had put his team in to that point. The game was ultimately won thanks to a Dolphins fumble and a 52-yard Matt Prater field goal.

The thriller against Oakland unfolded in much the same way.  Carson Palmer threw three interceptions. Running back Willis McGahee tied the game with a 60-yard touchdown run at the end of the third quarter and totaled 0.30 WPA and 4.6 EPA. The Broncos took the lead for good on an Eddie Royal 80-yard punt return for a touchdown. Tebow played fairly well in his own right. He totaled 4.6 EPA and -0.03 WPA, threw no interceptions and gave up only two sacks.

Last Sunday’s victory over the Chiefs was mostly a defensive victory. Matt Cassel was held to 2.4 yards per attempt and was sacked four times. The Broncos’ defense held the Chiefs to 10 points, 7 really if we don’t count a pointless field goal in the final seconds. Tebow made a big impact in this game, as one of his two completions was a 56-yard touchdown pass.

In the three victories, Tebow totaled 0.03 WPA and 9.3 EPA, both of which are slightly above average. In other words, he helped more than hurt his team, but only barely. The Broncos’ running game, excluding Tebow, totaled 1.67 WPA and -0.1 EPA in those same games. (When the WPA and EPA are largely split like this, it indicates over-performance in game-changing clutch situations.) The Broncos’ defense was responsible for 0.72 WPA and 11.5 EPA in the three wins.

I suspect Tim Tebow’s outing tonight against the Jets’ defense will resemble his struggle against the Lions more than his three wins as a starter. Here are the game probabilities for Week 11. (For more on the prediction model and its accuracy, see this post.)

 

Brian Burke, a former Navy pilot who has taken up the less dangerous hobby of N.F.L. statistical analysis, operates Advanced NFL Stats, a blog about football, math and human behavior.

Rangers Win 7th Straight Against Floundering but Feisty Isles

Disparities in victories, statistics and payroll rarely register when the Rangers and Islanders meet. Although the visiting Rangers entered the latest installment of the rivalry having won their last six games, while the Islanders had lost 9 of their previous 10, the Rangers could not exhale until the final seconds of their 4-2 victory Tuesday night at Nassau Coliseum.

“Whenever we play in this building, it’s up and down, over and about,” Rangers Coach John Tortorella said. “You just never know what’s going to happen. I thought we were good at periods of times. I thought we were brutal at periods of times. We’ve been on the back side of these, in this building. We’ve lost a lot of games here. But it’s an encouraging sign that we found a way to win.”

The game was intense throughout, a crowd-pleaser and coach-pleaser, undecided until Brad Richards took advantage of a Josh Bailey giveaway to break a 2-2 tie with just under five minutes left.

When the puck dropped, all streaks and slumps flew out the window. So what if the Islanders were 1-6-3 since beating the Rangers on Oct. 15? It mattered little that the Rangers were the hottest team in the N.H.L.

“I thought we gutted it out,” said Ryan Callahan, the Rangers’ captain, who had an assist and scored an empty-net goal as time expired. “I thought we stuck to our plan. There were a lot of emotional swings in this game. Nothing comes easy.”

It rarely does when facing a geographical rival, despite the personal and team statistics. The Islanders did not resemble the league’s 29th-place team. Jack Capuano’s club is battling an epic scoring slump, having already been shut out at home three times.

Kyle Okposo, the Islanders’ first-round pick in 2006, was a healthy scratch after failing to score a goal in the first 14 games of the season. Blake Comeau, a third-line wing with 24 goals last season, was held without a goal or assist by the Rangers – a season-opening drought of 13 games. Bailey, the goat, is a recent ninth overall draft pick with no goals and only one assist this season.

While the Rangers’ defensemen – Brad Park or Brian Leetch, none of them – have scored 11 goals this season, the Islanders have not seen a goal from any of their defensemen during even-strength play. This was about the only trend that held Tuesday night in Uniondale.

But even when the Rangers took a 2-1 lead in the middle of the second period on a goal by defenseman Steve Eminger, the Islanders generated more scoring chances for the next several minutes.

The Rangers, however, had Henrik Lundqvist in goal. Displaying his love for soccer, he blocked shots with his head. Dropping his stick and sprawling his pads across the crease to make a stunning save on P. A. Parenteau late in the period, Lundqvist drew echoes of Dominik Hasek.

“Hank kept us in it,” Tortorella said of Lundqvist, who is 22-11-5 in his career against the Islanders.

After kicking the habit of committing too many penalties during their six straight wins, the Rangers gave the Islanders five power plays in a 25-minute span over the final two periods. The Islanders finally took advantage of the fifth one. While Artem Anisimov sat in the box for high-sticking, the Islanders’ young star John Tavares slid a perfect pass to the crease, past a surprised Dan Girardi and on the stick of Matt Moulson, who scored to tie the game at 6 minutes 58 seconds of the third period.

Puck possession and battle levels were even for most of the third until Bailey’s shanked clearing attempt went from Brandon Dubinsky to Richards and past Islanders goaltender Evgeni Nabokov, whose acrobatic play between the pipes was almost the equal of Lundqvist’s.

“We had a lot of guys work very hard tonight,” said Capuano, who has some legitimately positive video to build on.

If the Islanders compete as ferociously in their coming games against Montreal, Boston and Pittsburgh as they did Tuesday against the Rangers, they will rise from the basement of the Eastern Conference. But that has been the question in Uniondale for a generation. Can the Islanders sustain a high level of play and tenacity when the old barn isn’t as crowded and the opponent not nearly as loathed?

As for the Rangers, they will look for their eighth straight win when they play Saturday in Montreal. The last time the Blueshirts won eight straight was during the 1974-75 season.

Mark Howe, the Proto-Nicklas Lidstrom, Is at Last in the Hall of Fame

On Monday night, Mark Howe will at long last be where he belongs: in the Hockey Hall of Fame. Howe became eligible for election to the Hall in 1998, three years after his distinguished 22-season career ended, but only now is he being ushered into a club in which he has long deserved membership. Yet even that is somehow fitting for Howe, whose quiet excellence tended to be overlooked throughout his career.

Howe was nothing less than one of the greatest defensemen of his generation, and it was he, perhaps more than anyone else, who made the Flyers of the 1980s a perennial Stanley Cup contender. Howe’s play on the Philadelphia blue line looked an awful lot like Nicklas Lidstrom’s does on the Detroit blue line: near flawless through the use of positioning rather than body checking, virtually penalty-free, and with an effective attacking component that made him doubly good.

Compare Howe’s 16 N.H.L. seasons (1979-80 through 1994-95) with the 18 full N.H.L. seasons of Lidstrom (1991-92 through 2010-11), and you can see just how good Howe was.

Totals:

Howe in 929 games: 197+545=742, +400, 455 PiM

(per game: 0.78 pts, +0.42, 0.48 PiM)

Lidstrom in 1,494 games: 253+855=1108, +429, 486 PiM

(per game: 0.74 pts, +0.29, 0.33 PiM)

Howe’s record is remarkable. Certainly Lidstrom will be elected to the Hall in his first year of eligibility, and deservedly so. But Howe’s career averages are actually slightly better than Lidstrom’s, and he had to wait 13 years.

The things Howe is best known for are special enough, even if they lead people to miss the bigger picture of his on-ice accomplishments.

He is a son of Gordie Howe, and where Gordie could be and was often savagely rough, Mark was gentlemanly and clean. In any case, it was for the chance to play alongside his sons Mark and Marty that Gordie came out of retirement for the 1973-74 season.

The three formed a line for the Houston Aeros of the W.H.A., with Gordie, 45, centering Mark, 18, on the left and Marty, 19, on the right. Gordie scored 100 points and Marty 24. Mark scored 79 points in 76 games and was voted the rookie of the year.

But it should not have come as a big surprise – Mark had already led the Detroit Junior Red Wings to the national junior championship as a 15-year-old in 1971; won a silver medal with the United States at the 1972 Olympics at 16, the youngest hockey player ever to earn a medal; and been named Memorial Cup most valuable player with the Toronto Marlboros in ’73.

With the Howes leading the way, the Aeros won the Avco World Trophy as W.H.A. champions in 1974 and ’75. Then the family moved to Hartford and the New England Whalers, and Mark continued to excel:

WVIT in Hartford offered this back-in-the-day profile of Mark:

Father and sons stayed together for the Hartford Whalers’ first N.H.L. season, 1979-80, and by this time Mark Howe was playing defense more and more – though still putting up point-a-game numbers. Then came a horrific injury, when he was impaled by a prong at the center of the goal net – it entered through his thigh and buttock and narrowly missed his spine. You cannot find the injury on video, but witnesses call it gruesome. The N.H.L. subsequently redesigned the nets, removing the prong.

Despite losing 35 pounds while on a liquid diet recovering from the injury, Howe managed to come back and score 53 points in 76 games the next season. But in those high-scoring days, that was seen as a big decline, and he was dealt to Philadelphia for the 1982-83 campaign.

So began Howe’s greatest period. He was partnered with Brad McCrimmon on the Flyers’ defense for much of five seasons, and the pairing was practically impregnable in leading Philadelphia to the Stanley Cup finals in 1985 and ’87. (Howe’s plus-minus marks for those five seasons: plus-47, plus-30, plus-51, plus-85, plus-57. McCrimmon’s: plus-24, plus-19, plus-52, plus-83, plus-45.) Howe could score, too, averaging 19 goals and 63 points in that span:

Amazing how much that goal looks like the one he scored for the Whalers of the W.H.A. a few years before.

Howe’s best season was 1985-86, when he led the league with his plus-85 (followed by McCrimmon’s plus-83), while scoring 24 goals and 82 points – and did so while taking only 36 penalty minutes. Howe did not win the Norris Trophy that season; Paul Coffey did. But Howe should have. For that one season at least, Howe, like his father, had become the best player at his position; unlike his father, he never gave out a mean check or a cheap shot.

Howe continued to excel in Philadelphia until beginning the slow decline of a wise but still useful veteran. The Flyers let him go after the 1991-92 season so he could sign with Detroit to try to win a Stanley Cup. But in three seasons with the Red Wings – two spent alongside McCrimmon — he could not.

Perhaps the absence of a Stanley Cup on his resume was the reason for the long delay in according Howe the recognition he will receive Monday. He did make three trips to the finals with Philadelphia — and sat in the press box for a fourth, as a veteran scratch with Detroit. But he won two W.H.A. titles, was a first-team N.H.L. All-Star three times, had the rare distinction of skating for both the United States and Canada in international play and, as we have seen, had a career of overarching quality and class. Better late than never.

Should Hall of Famers Have to Shine Internationally Too?

Four new members will be enshrined in the Hockey Hall of Fame in Toronto tonight, and the consensus is that a better quartet has not been so honored in many years. Ed Belfour, Doug Gilmour, Mark Howe and Joe Nieuwendyk are all names familiar to any hockey fan and each had a lengthy and successful career in the N.H.L.

Each also had important international experience. Belfour was Canada’s third goalie when it won the gold medal at the 2002 Olympics. Gilmour played at the 1981 world juniors, was part of the incredible Canadian win at the 1987 Canada Cup and played in the 1990 world championship. He also played in Switzerland during the lockout of 1994-95.

Howe won a silver medal at the 1972 Olympics with Team USA, a feat notable for two reasons. First, the Americans had been relegated to Pool B for that year’s world championship, meaning they were ranked so low no one could have imagined the team’s enormous Olympic success. As well, Howe was — and still is — the youngest man ever to play at the Olympics, at age 16 years, 8 months, 8 days. His other Team USA appearance came at the 1981 Canada Cup.

Nieuwendyk represented Canada four times; first at the 1986 world juniors, winning silver, and later at the 1990 world championship with Gilmour. He then played at the first two Olympics to feature N.H.L. players, finishing fourth in 1998 in Nagano, and winning gold in 2002.

But here is the curious paradox to these great players’ careers. Each is supremely proud of representing his country in international play, but if they hadn’t played a single moment internationally, would they still be being honored tonight? Almost certainly the answer is yes. While each had success on the international stage, it wasn’t necessarily the crux or defining moment of his career.

Yet for a modern hockey player to be considered worthy of the Hockey Hall of Fame, shouldn’t his international resume be superb and work alongside his N.H.L. portfolio? After all, playing for one’s country is not just an honor — it’s a way of filtering the greatest of the great players from the merely great players. There is an important symbolism attached to playing internationally. It means at that time, for that event, a player is considered among the very best at his position and from his country. A player can win a Stanley Cup as a fourth-line utility man. The Olympics call for stars.

In the old days, amateur (i.e., international players) and pro (i.e., N.H.L.) players were two different beasts. But today, they are one and the same. Wayne Gretzky was the best N.H.L. player, but he also played every international event because he was (A) allowed to and (B) clearly among that group we might call the best of the best.

For the Hockey Hall of Fame to truly earn its stripes as representing hockey and not just the N.H.L., it must surely consider both aspects of a player’s career. As well, it can and should induct players who were the opposite to tonight’s four: players who had outstanding international careers and only very good (or no) N.H.L. careers. Take a player like Robert Reichel, for instance, an excellent example of a superb international player who reached a lesser level in the N.H.L.

Reichel played 830 N.H.L. regular season games with four teams, collecting 252 goals and 630 points. In 13 N.H.L. seasons, his teams made the playoffs 10 times, but he never won the Stanley Cup. All in all, this was a superior N.H.L. career, but not one deserving Hall of Fame recognition.

But consider his international career with Czechoslovakia/Czech Republic. He played at the world juniors three times (1988-90), meaning that for three straight years he was among the best young players in his country. Between 1990 and 2003, he played in 77 world championship games, winning three gold medals and four bronze. He also won the historic Olympic gold with the Czechs in 1998, the nation’s first, and played in Salt Lake in 2002 as well as the 1991 Canada Cup and 2004 World Cup.

Given that the Czech Republic is one of the top hockey countries in the world, and Reichel was on his national team whenever he was available for a decade and a half (captaining the team on several occasions, no less), is he not among that group of hockey players who deserves a place in the Hockey Hall of Fame? Yet he has never received serious consideration, and likely never will, because his N.H.L. credentials aren’t strong enough. But, when he played the best of the best — a level above the N.H.L. — he excelled.

And what about a coach like Russia’s Viktor Tikhonov? He never coached in the N.H.L., but he coached against the N.H.L.’s best when those players represented their countries — and he won far more often than he lost. One could easily call him the Scotty Bowman of international play, both for his longevity and success. From his first tournament 1976 to his last in 2004 he won multiple gold medals at the Olympics and world championships, and led the Soviets to that historic clobbering of Canada, 8-1, at the 1981 Canada Cup. He also took his all-stars to victory over the N.H.L. stars at the 1979 Challenge Cup at Madison Square Garden. Not a Hockey Hall of Fame-worthy coach? Puh-lease.

The International Ice Hockey Federation has its own hall of fame, and by definition makes it clear that being elected is based on international success. But the Hockey Hall of Fame in Toronto has always maintained it celebrates the best players in the game, period. The class of 2012 is beyond reproach, but it could do more to incorporate international play into its voting consideration (not to mention the addition of several more women to keep company with Angela James and Cammi Granato). After all, nothing beats best-on-best competition. Nothing.

N.H.L. General Managers to Discuss Rule Changes

The N.H.L.’s general managers will convene at a suburban Toronto hotel Tuesday for their annual fall meeting to debate whether a rule change is needed to limit the neutral-zone trap, after exactly one mildly controversial game.

The trapping debate could divert general managers’ attention from matters many would consider more important, like a measure to adopt no-touch icing, after a serious injury early this season.

The general managers cannot formally propose rule changes at the meeting. Those proposals are made when the general managers reconvene in March, but the fall meeting is when they decide which matters to study and revisit in the spring.

The trapping issue emerged last Wednesday at Tampa Bay, when the Philadelphia Flyers refused to advance the puck against the Lightning’s 1-3-1 trap. The Lightning, in turn, refused to forecheck, so on several occasions totaling about four minutes of playing time, a Flyers defenseman stood motionless in his own zone with the puck while four Lightning players stood motionless at their various stations in the neutral zone and a fifth stood idle deep in his own zone.

It was a tactical standoff, brief and somewhat amusing, in a single game, but it drew plenty of attention.

“I think it’s been called an embarrassing moment,” Commissioner Gary Bettman said Thursday on his radio show. “We play 1,230 regular-season games, and in the course of seasons played things happen that are unusual, teams will do things that are unpredictable and unexpected.”

Yet despite the singularity of the event, there will be discussion among the 30 general managers on Tuesday about whether something should be done about the trap. The focus may be on Lightning Coach Guy Boucher’s 1-3-1 trap, which is slightly different from the 1-2-2 used by other teams.

One idea being talked about is a proposal to allow icing if a defending team goes into a passive 1-3-1.

The general managers may also look at abolishing traditional icing and installing no-touch icing, as in the N.C.A.A., Canadian junior and international hockey.

There were many calls for the N.H.L. to adopt the no-touch rule after Edmonton defenseman Taylor Fedun fractured his femur crashing into the boards during an icing race with Minnesota’s Eric Nystrom in a preseason game in late September.

It is not known when or whether Fedun can return. In 2008, Minnesota defenseman Kurtis Foster required surgery after breaking his femur in an icing race. It took him almost a year to return to the ice.

N.H.L. general managers have kept the traditional rule — although the league did update to the rule to try to prevent unnecessary contact during an icing race — saying fans enjoy the excitement and effort of the races. While commentators spoke a lot about the issue after Fedun’s injury, there has been little talk of it heading into Tuesday’s meeting.

The general managers will also hear reports from the N.H.L.’s chief on-ice disciplinarian, Brendan Shanahan, on the effectiveness of the revised rule on head checking and boarding. He will also report on supplemental discipline for offenders. There were more suspensions in the preseason, and during the regular season the supplemental discipline has been exclusively in the form of fines.

The general managers will also talk about realignment for next season, but their role in the matter is strictly advisory. The Board of Governors will decide how to realign at its early December meeting in Pebble Beach, Calif. They are expected to reduce to four divisions from six.

The big questions there are whether Detroit, Columbus and/or Nashville will end up in the East or West, and whether rivals Pittsburgh and Philadelphia will be separated into different divisions.

The general managers’ fall meeting always takes place in Toronto after Hall of Fame induction ceremonies; this year’s inductees, Ed Belfour, Doug Gilmour, Mark Howe and Joe Nieuwendyk, were honored Monday night, and Nieuwendyk stayed on for the meeting in his capacity as the Dallas general manager.

Are Giants Too Reliant on Manning Magic?

A capsule look at the Giants’ 27-20 loss to the 49ers on Sunday:

Key Performance
One week after booming a critical punt late against New England, Steve Weatherford drew Tom Coughlin’s ire for shanking a 29-yarder at the end of the third quarter. That gave the 49ers excellent field position, and they quickly took advantage, scoring three plays into the final quarter to take the lead for good.

Notable Number: 9
The Giants held the ball for nine more minutes than the 49ers, but they could not take advantage. The Giants also recorded 95 more yards of offense than San Francisco but were hurt by untimely mistakes and an inability to finish long drives in the first half.

Talking Point
After another week without a 100-yard rusher (Brandon Jacobs led the Giants with 55 yards on 18 carries), are the Giants too reliant on Eli Manning’s late magic to lead them to victory?

Week 10 Live: Jets-Patriots Win Probability

The Fifth Down will track the win probability for the Jets and the Patriots throughout Sunday night’s showdown at MetLife Stadium. We did it for the first meeting between the teams in Week 5, but a quick review for those unfamiliar with the metric from Advanced NFL Stats.

Win probability measures just that — the probability that each team will win the game at any moment. This, of course, varies with the twists and turns of each game, so an early lead raises the odds a team will win, but a turnover or a big play can turn it around.

The Jets have to deal with the Patriots first, but their win probability against the Broncos on Thursday night will be an interesting talking point this week. The Broncos won at 1 p.m. on Sunday. The Jets are playing the Sunday night game, then have a short week to prepare for Tim Tebow, who earlier in the day won for the third time in four games.

Preparing for the Broncos these days is like preparing for an Oklahoma high school team; Tebow completed only two of his eight passes Sunday. But he does pose his own brand of tricky problems. And while he hasn’t exactly beaten the ’85 Bears — his three recent wins came against the Dolphins, the Raiders and the Chiefs — he has been good enough to be taken seriously.

The question is: will the Jets do that, and will the short week work against them?

The Jets takes the opening kickoff the length of the field, stall at the 6 and then see Nick Folk miss a 24-yard field goal attempt. Their win probability instantly swings from 67 percent to 48, even though the score never changed.

Two Stephen Gostkowski field goals are all that separate the teams, who offensive stats are remarkably similar.

Jamaal Westerman gets the Jets on the board with a two-run homer safety. Brady had no chance there; Westerman doesn’t get credit for the sack, since Brady got off a left-handed pass. But intentional grounding out of the end zone is an automatic safety. So now the Jets will get the ball back with a chance to turn things around before halftime.

The Jets have actually outgained the Patriots so far, and should go into the half with a two-to-one edge in time of possession if they manage this last drive right. If they manage it into points, they’ll be even happier.

Happier, certainly, than Brady (7 of 16, 129 yards) looks right now.

I realize that Brady is Brady, but he’s not Brady tonight. At least not so far.Mon Nov 14 02:17:53 via webBen Shpigel
benshpigel

The Jet’s win probability surged over 50 percent for the first time since their field-goal miss when they grabbed the lead on Mark Sanchez’s 2-yard touchdown run, but Brady led the Patriots right back down the field to grab it back on an 18-yard touchdown catch by Rob Gronkowski.

Halftime: Patriots 13, Jets 9.

The Jets are down by 7 points. But it feels like more, no?Mon Nov 14 03:46:24 via webBen Shpigel
benshpigel

Yes, it does. And as I type those words, the Patriots pick off a tipped pass.

Gronkowski’s second touchdown catch extends New England’s lead to 14 points and pushes its win probability to 94 percent with four minutes left in the third quarter.

Guess the algorithm didn’t see the highlights of the Patriots’ fourth-quarter disaster against the Giants last week.

Plaxico Burress catches a 7-yard score but Deion Branch restores New England’s two-touchdown lead with an 8-yarder. It’s getting away from the Jets now; with eight minutes left, they’re entering flatline territory on the chart.

So the Patriots sweep the season series. What’s the probability these teams haven’t seen the last of each other this year? Pretty good.

Third-Rate Showing for Jets

A capsule look at the Jets’ 37-16 loss to the Patriots:

Notable Numbers: 5 for 13

That was the Jets’ success rate on third down, a poor showing for a team that thought it had solved its woes with three consecutive games of efficiency. The Jets had converted 20 of 39 third downs during their three-game winning streak — 14 of 24 over the last two — but New England thwarted their first five chances, preventing them from getting into an offensive groove.

Key Play/Performance
It was bad enough for the Jets that Joe McKnight, one of their top special-teams players, muffed a punt deep in his own territory. But it was worse still that they missed several chances to fall on the loose ball, including Donald Strickland, who landed on top of it before it somehow squirted loose. Consider it an opportunity missed on a night full of them.

Talking Point
Can the Jets move past this crushing loss and recover in time for a swift turnaround Thursday night against the resurgent Broncos?

Rex Ryan Transcript: An Apology to Jets Fans

Jets Coach Rex Ryan, who will play a Patriots fan in a coming Adam Sandler movie, sounded like a fan of the Patriots when he said early Monday morning: “They beat us twice. We think we’re as good as they are, but clearly, we’re not.”

The full transcript of Ryan’s remarks to reporters are below, as provided by the Jets. Among other things, he apologized to fans; he took responsibility for a Mark Sanchez timeout that Ryan had called “the stupidest play in football history” during a halftime interview; and he jokingly suggested that he should just declare the Jets’ playoff chances over — because it worked once before.

HEAD COACH REX RYAN, TRANSCRIPT
We wanted to win this game in the worst way. You’re not going to beat many teams when you make the mistakes that we made. We’ve been down this road before. I apologize to our fans. They were ready to go just like I thought we were. It’s disappointing, but we can’t dwell on it. We have four days until we play Denver, who is playing well. We have to put this game behind us as fast as we can.
On the Jets defensive struggles against the Patriots up-tempo offense…
There were a couple of times where we didn’t match up properly, and they threw a couple of quick passes. That’s what that team does. You have to be alert. We never got the matchups we wanted, so you have to give them a lot of credit.
On if he was stunned by the mistakes…
I thought we’d play a lot better. I thought we had really improved, I really did. I think we did improve, but when you make those types of mistakes — you fumble a punt, you have a poor timeout … time management was an absolutely critical error. That’s my responsibility. I own that one. You make that many mistakes against that team, there’s no chance.
On his halftime interview with NBC when he said a timeout before the half was “the worst play in NFL history”…
That’s my responsibility. That’s all it is, my responsibility.
On how it’s his responsibility…
I’m responsible for everything that happens with this football team. That’s my responsibility and it’s my fault. I own that.
On the pass protection…
When you’re up all those scores, you tee off on the quarterback. That’s exactly what they did. We’re trying to make big plays downfield, and that’s what happens. That defense is a lot better than people give them credit for. They’re 32nd in the league and all that, but when you get up a lot of scores on people, you’re going to give up yards. Clearly, we have to do a much better job protecting the quarterback.
On the feeling on the bench after the first drive ended with a missed field goal…
Those things happen, but that was the kind of night it was. As great as Nick has been, we missed a field goal, a chip shot. He’s been tremendous all season. He missed a 50-yard kick in a crosswind [at Buffalo], but other than that, he hasn’t missed a kick all year. It just seems that’s what happened to us. It just snowballed.
On how the Patriots drove 80 yards for a touchdown before halftime…
Easy – that’s the New England Patriots out there. They had two timeouts. They did a great job and executed. That’s what that team can do.
On matchups difficulties with Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski…
About 6’7″, I guess. That was one of the issues. The kid makes a lot of plays. He’s a factor in the red zone. You have to watch [Wes] Welker. They have a lot of weapons. We tried to match them up in different zones, we tried to bracket sometimes, but the young man did a nice job of catching the football.
On if the defensive play-calling system will change…
No, we’ll do what we always do. It’ll be the way we’ve done things for years here. [Defensive coordinator] Mike Pettine is a great football coach, it’s not his fault.
On if the division is still attainable…
It looks doubtful right now. What am I going to say? Maybe I should guarantee the fact that we’re out of it. The last time I did that, we made the playoffs. Yeah, we don’t have a chance.
On the difficulty of playing against lesser known players whose skill sets aren’t known…
You have a pretty good idea. They did a nice job. They’re a great football team. When you have No. 12 back there, I don’t care who else you’ve got. You see the difference a great quarterback makes in this league. You just have to look down the road at Indy. This guy’s an amazing player. You have Vince Wilfork in there. You have a lot of great players on that team. They’ve done a nice job. James Ihedigbo, I thought, played extremely well as well today.
On the play of Sanchez…
He was inconsistent, like the play of the rest of the team.
On the disappointment that the Patriots will likely win the AFC East…
Well, they have to get past Buffalo, too. It’s tough. They beat us twice. We think we’re as good as they are, but clearly, we’re not. We weren’t today, that’s for sure.
On the challenge of playing a game on Thursday…
The fact that we just got beat like we got beat, it’s probably a good thing, so we can’t dwell on it. That’s the thing that we have to do – we have to move on. We have to move on quickly. Denver’s playing really well on defense. With [Broncos QB Tim] Tebow, to be honest with you, I have to watch him. I don’t know what he presents, but he’s been running. They’ve been running the ball no matter who’s at tailback. We’ve got to get ready to go down there. With the way Denver’s playing, we know it’s going to be a tough game, but we have to get this thing behind us and go play Denver.
On Jets RB LaDainian Tomlinson’s injury…
I’m not sure. I think it’s a knee, but I wasn’t real sure. I don’t know the severity of it.

Mark Sanchez did not try to defend his decision to take a timeout before the end of the first half: “I just have to manage the clock better and that’s a rookie mistake, you can’t do that in your third year. So that really put our defense in a tough spot.”