Showing posts with label Tom Brady. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tom Brady. Show all posts

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Without Fanfare, Belichick and Brady Become Top Coach-Quarterback Combination

An underreported storyline from last Sunday’s Jets-Patriots game was that Bill Belichick and Tom Brady became the winningest head coach-quarterback tandem of the Super Bowl era (since 1966). They registered their 117th regular-season victory to move past Don Shula and Dan Marino, who totaled 116 for the Miami Dolphins from 1983-95.

The Belichick-Brady run is an impressive achievement that has not been without some storm clouds. In February 2002, Belichick chose to start Brady instead of Drew Bledsoe in the Super Bowl against St. Louis. It was not an easy decision. Bledsoe had replaced an injured Brady in the A.F.C. Championship game at Pittsburgh, and Bledsoe threw a clutch touchdown pass on the way to leading the Patriots to a 24-17 victory.

Brady had struggled in the six games before the A.F.C. Championship, throwing only two touchdown passes with six interceptions. Also, Brady had replaced an injured Bledsoe earlier that season. The case was made that Bledsoe deserved to reclaim the starting job. The popular Bledsoe had been the Patriots starter since being drafted first overall in 1993, while Brady was taken in the sixth round in 2000.

But Brady led the Patriots to a 20-17 victory in Super Bowl XXXVI and was named its most valuable player.

Most coach-quarterback tandems do not win a championship so early in their terms with a team. The Patriots’ Super Bowl championship over St. Louis came in Belichick’s second year. New England was 5-11 in his first season. Brady was in his second year as well, but he didn’t get his first start until Bledsoe got hurt in 2001.

But win-now formulas are always tempting. And if general managers and coaches have tenuous holds on their jobs it is difficult for them to think long-term.

I researched the 32 N.F.L. teams to find out where each currently stands in the head coach-quarterback wins category. It’s clear which teams put a premium on continuity and stability. Here are the top 10, in order of total victories:

131-40, Belichick-Brady, New England   Passing Shula and Marino after winning three Super Bowls? Enough said.

70-49, Tom Coughlin-Eli Manning, Giants  That this pair is second on the list is notable, considering how many times fans and commentators have called for either or both of their dismissals. Weekly booing of Manning occurred as late as 2007, right before the Giants’ Super Bowl run.

60-35, Sean Payton-Drew Brees, New Orleans  Saints General Manager Mickey Loomis struck gold in 2006 by landing Sean Payton as a first-time head coach and Brees as an accomplished quarterback coming off a shoulder injury. Their Super Bowl Championship came after the 2009 season.

52-23, Mike Tomlin-Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh   Tomlin replaced Bill Cowher in 2007, and the Steelers won their seventh Super Bowl in his second season. Roethlisberger won a Super Bowl with Cowher after the 2005 season.

48-31, Norv Turner-Philip Rivers, San Diego   The first of the top pairings not to have won a Super Bowl. Turner and Tomlin are the two most prominent examples of coaches who joined a team where the quarterback was already established.

42-22, John Harbaugh-Joe Flacco, Baltimore   Harbaugh was hired and Flacco was drafted prior to the 2008 season, when they had their best success by reaching the A.F.C. Championship game before losing to Pittsburgh.

40-21, Mike McCarthy-Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay   After hovering near .500 for almost three seasons, the Packers are 16-0 since Rodgers returned to the lineup after being knocked out of a game with a concussion last season against the Lions.

38-19, Mike Smith-Matt Ryan, Atlanta   Like Harbaugh and Flacco, both were brought in before the 2008 season. They are 0-2 in the postseason.

32-32, Gary Kubiak-Matt Schaub, Houston   Schaub was brought in for the 2007 season, but the Texans haven’t reached the playoffs since joining the N.F.L. in 2002. Schaub’s foot injury puts a crimp in what is shaping up to be the Texans’ best season.

28-18, Rex Ryan-Mark Sanchez, Jets   Thanks to four postseason victories, the Jets crack the top 10 in only the third season of the Ryan-Sanchez pairing. They are the most accomplished of the 2009 class.

Other pairings with more than 10 victories together are: Jim Caldwell-Peyton Manning, Indianapolis (26-10); Lovie Smith-Jay Cutler, Chicago (24-18); Todd Haley-Matt Cassel, Kansas City (18-22); Raheem Morris-Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay (17-17); Tony Sparano-Chad Henne, Miami (13-18); Andy Reid-Michael Vick, Philadelphia (11-10).

Extra Point  Is it fair to draw a correlation between long-term franchise success and continuity and stability in the head coach-quarterback tandem?

Monday, November 7, 2011

Has Eli Manning Earned the Right to Be Called Elite?

Had Eli Manning thrown an interception in the Giants’ final drive against the Patriots on Sunday, the answer among fans might be different. Short memories, small sample sizes and high emotion are not a recipe for rationality.

After Manning finished with 25 interceptions last season, our Andy Barall wrote that Giants fans would miss him when he was gone — not a popular opinion at the time.

Then came August, and Manning was asked in a radio interview if he was in the same class as Tom Brady.

He replied, “I consider myself in that class.”

Cue the laughter.

Shutdown Corner, while praising Manning for his confidence, also called it “the irrational, delusional kind”:

Eli is wrong, of course. Tom Brady is a better quarterback than Eli Manning, and that’s not a criticism of Eli or even a statement of opinion. That’s just the way it is. The sun rises in the East, two plus two is four, and Tom Brady is a better quarterback than Eli Manning.

Manning had a chance to match up with Brady on Sunday, and just as he did in the 2008 Super Bowl, he outdueled him and rallied the Giants to victory with two fourth-quarter touchdown passes.

Still, Jason Cole of Yahoo Sports  wasn’t ready to give Eli an “E”:

Is it time to vault Manning into that class with guys like Brady, his brother Peyton, Drew Brees) and Aaron Rodgers? Can we somehow elevate him to a status that stats and moments don’t quite justify?

No, not yet.

If you’re looking for a bottom line answer to whether New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning is the equal of New England Patriots counterpart Tom Brady, the answer is still no.

Extra point Forget about Sunday, as exciting as it was. It was one game. Is Eli one of the top five quarterbacks? Is he truly elite?

Here’s a sample of Manning’s discussion with reporters after the game (the full transcript is at the Giants’ Web site):

Q: Did you see any of the signs in the stands saying you were not an elite quarterback?

Eli: I did not. I don’t make it a habit of looking into the stands and reading signs. If I did, I don’t think I would have thought they were the experts to make that decision.

Q: Are you surprised that the question about where you rank has become a season-long debate?

Eli: I just don’t worry about it; it doesn’t affect my performance, my preparation or my mindset on what I need to do each week. If someone wants to put me in that class or not doesn’t bother me. It’s not going to get me depressed or get me cocky. I just try to prepare each week and go out there and try to win each game.

Thursday, October 13, 2011

N.F.L. Needs Fair Method for Recording Interception Statistics

On the final play in the first half of Sunday’s game between the Jets and the Patriots, Tom Brady threw a quick out to tight end Aaron Hernandez. Jets cornerback Antonio Cromartie intercepted the pass near the Patriots’ goal line and ran the ball back to the 41-yard-line as the clock expired.

This play depicted two flaws with pro football’s statistical bookkeeping.

Flaw 1: The interception went on Brady’s record, even though it occurred because Hernandez deflected the ball up in the air. It was a well-thrown pass that should have been caught. The interception should have gone on Hernandez’s record. In the way that a dropped pop fly in baseball is counted as an error for the fielder and not a hit against the pitcher, a tipped interception off a dropped pass should count against a receiver. This kind of detail is important for a fair accounting of the game.

Flaw 2: The interception was counted as a turnover, even though the ball did not change hands. By the time the play ended, the first half had expired.

Now I acknowledge there are a few holes in this second argument. Possession did technically change hands, as Cromartie had the ball with a chance to score. And if Hernandez had merely dropped the pass rather than tipped it to the defense, there might  have been enough time left on the clock for New England to kick a field goal. So there was a turnover element involved in this particular play.

That’s fine. The bigger point is that we should use this play as a gateway to the concept of turnovers that aren’t really turnovers. End-of-half interceptions, like desperation heaves, aren’t truly turnovers; the patterns of possession are not altered by the outcome of the play. Same goes for an interception on fourth down. The end result of that play is essentially no different than if the quarterback had thrown an incomplete pass or taken a sack. So why describe it as a turnover?

The whole idea of statistics is to find a mathematical representation of what happened in the game. As the Hernandez interception reminds us, every now and then, there are stats that are a mathematical misrepresentation. With a little attention to detail, the N.F.L. could correct the record.

Andy Benoit is an NFL analyst for CBSSports.com and founder of NFLTouchdown.com. He can be reached at andy.benoit@NFLTouchdown.com or @Andy_Benoit.


Monday, September 26, 2011

Leading Off: World Goes Mad, or at Least Football Does

If you went on vacation for a few weeks, left the country, put the iPhone on airplane mode and left it there, it would be easy to return and wonder if the sports world had gone completely off the rails. We know this from personal experience. But, as it turns out, it was not necessary to leave the country and turn off your smartphone to feel unmoored. In fact, you could have watched every second of the Lions and Bills starting the season 3-0, with a few glimpses over at the Browns going 2-1, while still trying to wrap your head around the Colts without Peyton Manning and still wonder what the heck is going on.

This is clear from the number of plugged-in football people who have been paying close attention and still reacted to Sunday’s developments by saying, “What the heck is going on?” This crowd is led by the Boston Globe’s Dan Shaughnessy, who absorbed the Patriots’ defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory against the Bills and decided the laws of the universe have been rewritten. O.K., sure, maybe there are subatomic particles that can travel faster than light and scientists can stumble on new planets orbiting more than one sun, but Tom Brady throwing four interceptions and the Bills taking over as the new Kings of Karma? This cannot happen. The Buffalo News’s Mike Harrington even says so. The Bills even had a touchdown overturned and it ended up helping them. And thus, perhaps the rustiest of the Rust Belt cities has a reason to go wild, writes Yahoo.com’s Les Carpenter.

Yes, as Dan Wetzel writes on Yahoo.com, it’s Bizarro World. In the case of the Lions, they gave some hints last season that this was possible, but as Don Banks writes on SI.com, the mind-blowing part is that both the Lions and Bills have developed resilience neither team could have imagined. SI.com’s Peter King throws the Browns into the mix and heralds a new day for the Terrible Trio.

The weirdness hardly stops there. Not only is the Eagles’ once seemingly indomitable ship taking on water, the lifeboats are getting pretty crowded for a team that’s 1-2 and was being called the Dream Team about eight seconds ago. A loss to the hated Giants and Michael Vick’s broken hand are only the edge of their problems, writes Clark Judge on CBSSports.com, and The Philadelphia Daily News’s Sam Donnellon even goes so far as to say Coach Andy Reid might soon be reaching for a pair of water wings. While ESPN.com’s Dan Graziano believes Vick missing a few weeks might actually help the Eagles get organized and stop relying so heavily on him, the Philadelphia Daily News’s John Smallwood is wondering if Vick’s playing style may be his undoing. Against the Giants, a calamitous 14 minute, 51 second stretch was the Eagles undoing, and the Giants were happy that for a change, they did not engineer that calamity, writes Ohm Youngmisuk on ESPN.com.

In other calamities with Philadelphia echoes, Donovan McNabb is now being hooted toward the sideline in his latest city (Minneapolis), with the Star-Tribune’s Jim Souhan rushing to the head of the pack calling for Christian Ponder to start at quarterback after the Vikings torpedoed themselves for a third straight game. In Baltimore, Ravens fans not only have a win over Pittsburgh to enjoy already this season, they watched rookie receiver Torrey Smith turn his first three N.F.L. catches into touchdowns. Not bad for a day’s work. The Panthers’ Jonathan Stewart might be saying the same thing about his amazing, 60-yard, waterskis-would-have-helped touchdown if it hadn’t been overturned on replay.

Yes, there were other sports with forehead-slapping developments going on over the weekend as well. The Red Sox elbowed into the picture in dramatic fashion, interrupting their epic collapse with a dramatic 14-inning victory over the Yankees, which pulled them at least momentarily back from the ledge, writes Jeff Passan on Yahoo.com. It might be only a momentary reprieve, writes Joe Lemire on SI.com, but they’ll take it. As Danny Knobler writes on CBSSports.com, they are desperately trying to rewrite their own story.

There was a golf story this weekend that did not involve Tiger Woods until Woods decided to hijack the news and hire a caddie away from Dustin Johnson. But if you could ignore that little tempest, you are likely trying to figure out just how Bill Haas managed to make off with the FedEx Cup jackpot. We’re not even sure Haas knows how.

If all that isn’t strange enough, it’s worth taking in one more sight: a fantastically low-budget ad featuring Diego Maradona and his Dubai driving license.

But, not it’s still not stranger than the Bills and Lions being 3-0.

Follow Leading Off on Twitter: twitter.com/zinsernyt

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Surpassing Numbers From Tom Brady and Cam Newton

In Week 1, Tom Brady and Cam Newton were outstanding. Among all quarterbacks since 1960:

As great as those two were in Week 1, Brady and Newton served up some excellent encores. Facing two of the best defenses in football — the Packers finished the 2010 season second in points allowed, 3rd in net yards per pass allowed and 5th in passing yards allowed, while the Chargers led the league in yards allowed, passing yards allowed and net yards per pass allowed — didn’t intimidate Newton or Brady. Newton torched the Packers for 432 passing and added 53 more yards on the ground. Tom Brady lighted up the Chargers for 423 passing yards.

Newton became the third-youngest quarterback to throw for 400 passing yards, a week after becoming the second youngest. Brady became the first quarterback to  throw for a 500-yard game and a 400-yard game in consecutive weeks. Newton’s start to his career has been both entertaining and eye-opening: here were the top 10 leaders in passing yards in a player’s first two games before 2011:

Newton didn’t just break the record, he obliterated it, throwing for 854 passing yards in his first two games. In fact, immediately after Newton’s performance, he became just the seventh quarterback — of any age or experience — since 1960 to pass for 850 yards or more in consecutive games. But by the end of the day, he was passed by Brady, who finished five yards shy of tying the record for most passing yards in consecutive games:

Record-Setting Day in Detroit

The Detroit Lions are one of the oldest franchises in the N.F.L., dating to their days as the Portsmouth Spartans in 1930. The Lions won three N.F.L. titles in six years in the ’60s, and played in their 1,122nd regular-season game Sunday. Never had Detroit won a regular-season game by more than 44 points, as it did against the Chiefs (48-3) in its home opener on Sunday. Whenever a team as old as Detroit sets a franchise record, that’s impressive. In 1957, the last year the Lions won a championship, Detroit crushed the Cleveland Browns, 59-14. Lions fans can only hope that this year’s edition continues to evoke comparisons to the ‘57 team.

Meanwhile, things went from bad to worse for Kansas City. After being blindsided by the Bills, 41-7, at Arrowhead in Week 1, the Chiefs somehow managed to look even worse in Week 2. The Chiefs are last in the league in points scored and last in the league in points allowed; that’s what happens when a team starts off the season by being outscored, 89-10. How bad has Kansas City been? Over the last 75 seasons, only three N.F.L. teams and one A.F.L. team have been outscored by more points in their first two games:

Adding insult to injury for the Chiefs? Before becoming Buffalo’s coach, Chan Gailey was hired as the Kansas City offensive coordinator in 2008; three games into the 2009 preseason, Coach Todd Haley, in a stunning move, fired him. Gailey got his revenge in Week 1; the Buffalo offense exploded for five touchdowns. Gunther Cunningham coached for 11 seasons in Kansas City (including two seasons as coach in ‘99 and ‘00), but was relieved of his defensive coordinator duties as part of the regime change from Herm Edwards to Haley. Cunningham’s defense dominated the Chiefs’ offense on Sunday, and the Lions gave Cunningham a Gatorade bath in the final minute. After the game, Lions General Manager Martin Mayhew ignored etiquette and refused to acknowledge Chiefs General Manager Scott Pioli. Why did Mayhew turn his back on Pioli? Last year, the Chiefs and Pioli filed tampering chargers against the Lions, alleging that Cunningham contacted Chiefs safety Jarrad Page (and perhaps other defensive players). Detroit’s punishment was levied via the 2011 draft, as the league took away the Lions’ seventh- round pick and forced the two franchises to switch fifth round selections (which moved Kansas City up 14 spots). Haley and Pioli haven’t made many friends in Kansas City, and it seems as if opposing teams aren’t shy about exacting their revenge against the Chiefs on the field.

Profiles in Futility

The Chiefs are in the running for worst team in the league, also known as the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. But while no one has equaled the depths of Kansas City’s ineptitude, Kansas City is not alone in looking ugly.

No team has been worse on the road than the Seattle Seahawks. After being shut out in Pittsburgh, 24-0, the Seahawks have now:

The Indianapolis Colts were annihilated on opening day by the Texans. The Peyton Manning-less Colts fared better on Sunday, falling, 29-17, to the Browns. But consider how far the Colts have fallen. From 2000 to 2010 — ignoring  Week 17 games in which the Colts announced their intention to rest most of their starters — Indianapolis was a home underdog only one time in that 11-year stretch, and that was when they faced the ‘07 Patriots. This was only Cleveland’s second double-digit victory in its last 62 road games.

Come for the nightlife and scene, stay for the win: The Miami Dolphins have now lost 11 of their last 12 home games. Miami became just the fourth team in the past eight seasons to start the season by losing at home in Weeks 1 and 2.

Pay money to star running back, lose leads late, anyway: From 2000 to 2010, only 12 teams lost two games after jumping out to double-digit halftime leads in the same season. No team lost three. After two weeks, the Minnesota Vikings are 2 for 2 in 2011. The Vikings stunned the Chargers in Week 1, jumping out to a 17-7 lead at halftime. The Vikings did not score in the second half, and San Diego won, 24-17. In Week 2, the Vikings stunned the Buccaneers, jumping out to a 17-0 halftime lead. The Vikings were held to just a field goal in the second half, and lost, 24-20. Adrian Peterson has 218 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns, but his teammates have not been as productive.

Chase Stuart contributes to the Pro-Football-Reference.com blog and to Footballguys.com.

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

2011 New England Patriots Preview

We’re always hearing about The Patriot Way. By now, we understand what it means. The Patriot Way is the embodiment of every cliché known in sports: no “I” in team; let your play do the talking; one step at a time; just trying to get better, doing whatever it takes to win. It’s pretty straightforward stuff that trickles down from the owner Robert Kraft to Coach Bill Belichick to everyone else.

Belichick’s Patriots are so business-oriented that they themselves rarely even talk about The Patriot Way. The phrase is mainly the outside world’s way of explaining the culture of this very successful organization.

When we see the Patriots take a flier on baggage-toting stars like Albert Haynesworth and Chad Ochocinco, we cite The Patriot Way. When this team dumped another one of those stars in the middle of last season and instantly remodeled much of its offense, we marveled at its league-best 14-2 record and again credited The Patriot Way. When classic underdog players – your Wes Welkers, your Danny Woodheads – become stars in New England, or when single drafts produce legions of core players overnight (like the ’10 class: Devin McCourty, Brandon Spikes, Jermaine Cunningham, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski – starters all) we just shake our head and continue to laud The Patriot Way.

But focusing on The Patriot Way is like classifying a car by its color. Sure, it counts for something. And it’s nice that everyone can see and understand it. But it’s not the make or model. Locker room chemistry and teamwork and all those convenient Disney movie elements are great, but in the end, football is about the battle that takes place on that 100×53 piece of turf. And those battles often don’t come down to “wanting it more” or “overcoming adversity” – they come down to out-scheming and out-executing the enemy.

To the Patriots, this is The Real Patriot Way. Here’s how it works:

Offense

Unlike with most teams, the Patriot offense is built primarily on principles, rather than players. But the paradox is it’s only built this way because of one particular player. You can probably guess who.

Most N.F.L. offenses build a majority of their systems off their personnel. But having Tom Brady under center gives New England the enormous luxury of reversing that formula. Because Brady is Mensa quality when it comes to dissecting a defense at the line of scrimmage, and because he has arguably the best pocket mechanics in  football, the Patriots are able to first create a system and then find the players to run it. This is why they’re so good at surviving injuries, incorporating newcomers and, most overlooked, grooming young talent.

More on Brady’s specific impact momentarily. First, let’s examine what, exactly, is New England’s system. In short, it’s a precision-passing game based on horizontal option routes. Most offenses build their passing attack on timing and stretching the field. The Patriots – especially in this post-Randy Moss era – are the opposite. The patterns their receivers run are often determined by what the defense shows. It’s up to the receiver to correctly assess the coverage – often on the fly – and execute accordingly. Because of this, the Patriots don’t look for size and speed at wide receiver; they look for intelligence and precise route running. Thus, wideouts like Wes Welker, Julian Edelman and Deion Branch – guys who possess very average natural ability but have outstanding fundamentals – become stars in this system. (It’s no accident that Welker and Branch were far less effective players for the Dolphins and Seahawks.)

This is why the Patriots don’t have to worry about newcomer Chad Ochocinco being 33 and slowing down. Physically, Ochocinco still executes the breaks in his routes with superb quickness. He doesn’t have to stretch the field or win a jump ball on every down (the Pats can turn to to third-year pro Brandon Tate for those infrequent assignments); he just has to take what the defense allows him. Ocho drew criticism for not always running the right routes in Cincinnati. But the Bengals had a rudimentary system that afforded little to no freedom for their frequently double-teamed receivers. That won’t be the case here.

The approach is similar for New England’s sensational second-year tight ends, Rob Gronkowski (an improving route runner and firm blocker) and Aaron Hernandez. Hernandez is a tight end with true wide receiver skills. That’s nightmarish for defensive coordinators, who must always ask themselves, ‘With Hernandez on the field, do I use my base personnel and risk having him run routes against my safety or linebacker, or do I go to nickel and risk the Patriots putting two tight ends on the line of scrimmage and ramming the ball down our throats?’

New England’s style of option route running is uncommon because it requires the quarterback to see the route develop and react, rather than anticipate and throw to a window. Thus, the quarterback is forced to hold the ball a split second longer. Not many can survive this pressure. Tom Brady, however, has an uncanny ability to instantaneously reset his feet and gather his throwing mechanics while in a crowd. And you almost never see him throw off balance. These rare attributes form the foundation of New England’s passing attack.

They also deflate the theory that Brady lacks toughness. True, Brady gets a bit jittery after an accumulation of hits, but that’s only because he’s a.) human and b.) concerned with protecting possession. When your passing attack specifically emphasizes your being able to throw the ball right before taking a hit, you naturally become more aware of potential hits.

A slower-developing, horizontal aerial attack also demands a little more from the pass protectors. The Patriots acknowledged this when they drafted Nate Solder in the first round. This was a response to 33-year-old Matt Light no longer being a sure thing when it comes to handling elite edge-rushers one-on-one. If the lockout hadn’t prevented Solder from practicing, he’d most likely be starting opposite right tackle Sebastian Vollmer (a solid but unspectacular third-year pro – flawed second-team All-Pro accolades aside). Instead, Light – who, to be clear, has great chemistry with Brady and can certainly be more than adequate for one more year – is back.

So is All-Pro left guard Logan Mankins, fresh long-term contract and all (finally!). Mankins, who will line up next to rock-steady center Dan Koppen and smart but middling right guard Dan Connolly, is the key to New England’s power run game. No guard in football pulls with such consistent force.

Brady-centric as this offense might be, the Patriots are still willing to attack opponents on the ground. In BenJarvus Green-Ellis the Pats have a traditional runner who will gain whatever yardage the play has to offer. He’s not a creator, but the Pats don’t need him to be. That’s what Danny Woodhead is for. If not for having the physical appearance of a busboy, Woodhead’s name would come up in a lot of top 10 running back discussions. Truly. He has incredible lateral agility and quickness, and he’s marvelous in all phases of the passing game.

Despite Woodhead’s emergence and having a 36-year-old surgically repaired right knee, Kevin Faulk recently received a one-year contract for the veteran minimum ($910,000). His role in 2011 may simply be to tutor second-round rookie Shane Vereen and third-rounder Stevan Ridley. Vereen is an all-purpose back from California; Ridley is a workhorse out of L.S.U. If having five quality backs weren’t enough, the Patriots also have veteran Sammy Morris on the roster.

Defense

Everybody wants to know if the 2011 Patriots defense will be a 3-4 or a 4-3. The answer is it will be neither and both. It’s understandable that people would want to pigeonhole this defense and find a crystal clear image of the depth chart and gameplan. But the reason Bill Belichick has a reputation for directing versatile, ever-changing units is because he does not view defense in broad strokes of black and white.

Instead of seeing one defensive unit on the field, Belichick sees 11 defensive pieces. His mantra is to find the best role for each of those pieces on each play. While most coaches emphasize exotic blitzes and creative disguise, Belichick is more inclined to preach simple fundamentals and assignments. Often, the Patriots run a surprisingly basic defense, but they create complexity by mixing basic concepts. There are 11 guys executing assignments on each play. Some of those assignments might be 3-4-centric, while some could be 4-3-centric. Collectively, it doesn’t matter. All that matters to Belichick is that each guy is executing his specific assignment. When that happens, the defense naturally works.

The droves of Albert Haynesworth watchers can assume that Belichick will have the star defensive lineman often playing the one-gap concepts he grew to love in Tennessee’s 4-3. Belichick knows that’s the best way to use his Haynesworth piece. Nose tackle Vince Wilfork will likely play a majority of 3-4 technique simply because, being an explosive 350-plus-pounder, he’s going to command double-teams anyway. Along the rest of the defensive line, ex-Jet Shaun Ellis is experienced in all systems and plays with great power in the trenches. He should be more effective late in the season than he was a year ago now that his sharing the load with jack-of-all-trades Mike Wright. Rounding out the front, backups Kyle Love and Gerard Warren are spacious players who provide sound depth.

New England’s defensive alignments will usually be determined by whatever gives them the best pass-rush. Defensive end Andre Carter can turn the corner coming out of a two-or three-point stance. Speed-wise, he’s an upgrade over Tully Banta-Cain, but the Pats will need another edge player to step up. Jermaine Cunningham showed gradual improvement as a second-round rookie last season, but he’s more of a strongside 3-4 outside linebacker than true edge-rusher. Mark Anderson has startling speed around the corner but can’t seem to stay on anyone’s roster. Eric Moore is just a guy.

Linebackers Rob Ninkovich, Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes and Gary Guyton are all better read-and-react players than attackers. Of the bunch, Mayo is the star. He’s the NFL’s reigning tackle leader and, thanks to good instincts and anticipation, plays with excellent range against both run and pass. Spikes, an intriguing second-year pro, can be a good interior thumper, but in the short-term he’ll likely take a backseat to the speedier Guyton in nickel packages.

New England’s mixture of defensive techniques is most prevalent in the secondary. Belichick loves matchup zone concepts that require players to use man-techniques in defending an area. It’s not easy, which is part of the reason the Patriots have had a revolving door at the right cornerback position. They’re hoping that a healthy Leigh Bodden can stabilize this spot. They learned last season that Kyle Arrington lacks the necessary ball skills to survive in this role. Before that, similar conclusions had already been made about Darius Butler and Jonathan Wilhite.

No such worries on the left side. Devin McCourty is coming off one of the great rookie seasons for a cornerback. The lanky 5-11, 193-pounder from Rutgers has an almost eerie ability to backpedal with receivers screaming down the field. Also, he’s shrewder than most tenured veterans when it comes to using the sideline to his advantage. And by recording seven of New England’s league-high 25 interceptions last season, McCourty obviously has phenomenal ball skills.

There’s potentially a stellar long-term cornerbacking tandem in place with McCourty and this year’s 33rd overall pick, Ras-I Dowling. But if Bodden holds up outside, Dowling may not see much action if the coaches decide they can’t resist the physicality that safety Patrick Chung brings to the nickel slot. Chung, however, can be attacked in man coverage. He will line up at strong safety ahead of steady but mundane veteran James Sanders in base packages. (Sanders will assume the safety duties in nickel and dime.) At free safety will be dynamic playmaker Brandon Meriweather, assuming he doesn’t again drive coaches nuts with mental gaffes and freelancing.

Special Teams

Stephen Gostkowski was a top-five kicker before tearing his right quad last season. The sixth-year pro is back to kicking without reservations. Zoltan Mesko will be entrusted with the punting duties again. Wes Welker or Julian Edelman (or whoever can be counted on to make a fair catch, as Belichick’s goal with special teams is usually  just to break even) will field punts. Brandon Tate brings explosiveness to the kick return game.

Bottom Line

The system is outstanding. The talent stocking it is equally impressive. It’s just a matter of whether the Patriots can do something they surprisingly haven’t done well in recent years: hold serve in big games.

Predicted Finish: 1st A.F.C. East

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