Tuesday, August 16, 2011

2011 New England Patriots Preview

We’re always hearing about The Patriot Way. By now, we understand what it means. The Patriot Way is the embodiment of every cliché known in sports: no “I” in team; let your play do the talking; one step at a time; just trying to get better, doing whatever it takes to win. It’s pretty straightforward stuff that trickles down from the owner Robert Kraft to Coach Bill Belichick to everyone else.

Belichick’s Patriots are so business-oriented that they themselves rarely even talk about The Patriot Way. The phrase is mainly the outside world’s way of explaining the culture of this very successful organization.

When we see the Patriots take a flier on baggage-toting stars like Albert Haynesworth and Chad Ochocinco, we cite The Patriot Way. When this team dumped another one of those stars in the middle of last season and instantly remodeled much of its offense, we marveled at its league-best 14-2 record and again credited The Patriot Way. When classic underdog players – your Wes Welkers, your Danny Woodheads – become stars in New England, or when single drafts produce legions of core players overnight (like the ’10 class: Devin McCourty, Brandon Spikes, Jermaine Cunningham, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski – starters all) we just shake our head and continue to laud The Patriot Way.

But focusing on The Patriot Way is like classifying a car by its color. Sure, it counts for something. And it’s nice that everyone can see and understand it. But it’s not the make or model. Locker room chemistry and teamwork and all those convenient Disney movie elements are great, but in the end, football is about the battle that takes place on that 100×53 piece of turf. And those battles often don’t come down to “wanting it more” or “overcoming adversity” – they come down to out-scheming and out-executing the enemy.

To the Patriots, this is The Real Patriot Way. Here’s how it works:

Offense

Unlike with most teams, the Patriot offense is built primarily on principles, rather than players. But the paradox is it’s only built this way because of one particular player. You can probably guess who.

Most N.F.L. offenses build a majority of their systems off their personnel. But having Tom Brady under center gives New England the enormous luxury of reversing that formula. Because Brady is Mensa quality when it comes to dissecting a defense at the line of scrimmage, and because he has arguably the best pocket mechanics in  football, the Patriots are able to first create a system and then find the players to run it. This is why they’re so good at surviving injuries, incorporating newcomers and, most overlooked, grooming young talent.

More on Brady’s specific impact momentarily. First, let’s examine what, exactly, is New England’s system. In short, it’s a precision-passing game based on horizontal option routes. Most offenses build their passing attack on timing and stretching the field. The Patriots – especially in this post-Randy Moss era – are the opposite. The patterns their receivers run are often determined by what the defense shows. It’s up to the receiver to correctly assess the coverage – often on the fly – and execute accordingly. Because of this, the Patriots don’t look for size and speed at wide receiver; they look for intelligence and precise route running. Thus, wideouts like Wes Welker, Julian Edelman and Deion Branch – guys who possess very average natural ability but have outstanding fundamentals – become stars in this system. (It’s no accident that Welker and Branch were far less effective players for the Dolphins and Seahawks.)

This is why the Patriots don’t have to worry about newcomer Chad Ochocinco being 33 and slowing down. Physically, Ochocinco still executes the breaks in his routes with superb quickness. He doesn’t have to stretch the field or win a jump ball on every down (the Pats can turn to to third-year pro Brandon Tate for those infrequent assignments); he just has to take what the defense allows him. Ocho drew criticism for not always running the right routes in Cincinnati. But the Bengals had a rudimentary system that afforded little to no freedom for their frequently double-teamed receivers. That won’t be the case here.

The approach is similar for New England’s sensational second-year tight ends, Rob Gronkowski (an improving route runner and firm blocker) and Aaron Hernandez. Hernandez is a tight end with true wide receiver skills. That’s nightmarish for defensive coordinators, who must always ask themselves, ‘With Hernandez on the field, do I use my base personnel and risk having him run routes against my safety or linebacker, or do I go to nickel and risk the Patriots putting two tight ends on the line of scrimmage and ramming the ball down our throats?’

New England’s style of option route running is uncommon because it requires the quarterback to see the route develop and react, rather than anticipate and throw to a window. Thus, the quarterback is forced to hold the ball a split second longer. Not many can survive this pressure. Tom Brady, however, has an uncanny ability to instantaneously reset his feet and gather his throwing mechanics while in a crowd. And you almost never see him throw off balance. These rare attributes form the foundation of New England’s passing attack.

They also deflate the theory that Brady lacks toughness. True, Brady gets a bit jittery after an accumulation of hits, but that’s only because he’s a.) human and b.) concerned with protecting possession. When your passing attack specifically emphasizes your being able to throw the ball right before taking a hit, you naturally become more aware of potential hits.

A slower-developing, horizontal aerial attack also demands a little more from the pass protectors. The Patriots acknowledged this when they drafted Nate Solder in the first round. This was a response to 33-year-old Matt Light no longer being a sure thing when it comes to handling elite edge-rushers one-on-one. If the lockout hadn’t prevented Solder from practicing, he’d most likely be starting opposite right tackle Sebastian Vollmer (a solid but unspectacular third-year pro – flawed second-team All-Pro accolades aside). Instead, Light – who, to be clear, has great chemistry with Brady and can certainly be more than adequate for one more year – is back.

So is All-Pro left guard Logan Mankins, fresh long-term contract and all (finally!). Mankins, who will line up next to rock-steady center Dan Koppen and smart but middling right guard Dan Connolly, is the key to New England’s power run game. No guard in football pulls with such consistent force.

Brady-centric as this offense might be, the Patriots are still willing to attack opponents on the ground. In BenJarvus Green-Ellis the Pats have a traditional runner who will gain whatever yardage the play has to offer. He’s not a creator, but the Pats don’t need him to be. That’s what Danny Woodhead is for. If not for having the physical appearance of a busboy, Woodhead’s name would come up in a lot of top 10 running back discussions. Truly. He has incredible lateral agility and quickness, and he’s marvelous in all phases of the passing game.

Despite Woodhead’s emergence and having a 36-year-old surgically repaired right knee, Kevin Faulk recently received a one-year contract for the veteran minimum ($910,000). His role in 2011 may simply be to tutor second-round rookie Shane Vereen and third-rounder Stevan Ridley. Vereen is an all-purpose back from California; Ridley is a workhorse out of L.S.U. If having five quality backs weren’t enough, the Patriots also have veteran Sammy Morris on the roster.

Defense

Everybody wants to know if the 2011 Patriots defense will be a 3-4 or a 4-3. The answer is it will be neither and both. It’s understandable that people would want to pigeonhole this defense and find a crystal clear image of the depth chart and gameplan. But the reason Bill Belichick has a reputation for directing versatile, ever-changing units is because he does not view defense in broad strokes of black and white.

Instead of seeing one defensive unit on the field, Belichick sees 11 defensive pieces. His mantra is to find the best role for each of those pieces on each play. While most coaches emphasize exotic blitzes and creative disguise, Belichick is more inclined to preach simple fundamentals and assignments. Often, the Patriots run a surprisingly basic defense, but they create complexity by mixing basic concepts. There are 11 guys executing assignments on each play. Some of those assignments might be 3-4-centric, while some could be 4-3-centric. Collectively, it doesn’t matter. All that matters to Belichick is that each guy is executing his specific assignment. When that happens, the defense naturally works.

The droves of Albert Haynesworth watchers can assume that Belichick will have the star defensive lineman often playing the one-gap concepts he grew to love in Tennessee’s 4-3. Belichick knows that’s the best way to use his Haynesworth piece. Nose tackle Vince Wilfork will likely play a majority of 3-4 technique simply because, being an explosive 350-plus-pounder, he’s going to command double-teams anyway. Along the rest of the defensive line, ex-Jet Shaun Ellis is experienced in all systems and plays with great power in the trenches. He should be more effective late in the season than he was a year ago now that his sharing the load with jack-of-all-trades Mike Wright. Rounding out the front, backups Kyle Love and Gerard Warren are spacious players who provide sound depth.

New England’s defensive alignments will usually be determined by whatever gives them the best pass-rush. Defensive end Andre Carter can turn the corner coming out of a two-or three-point stance. Speed-wise, he’s an upgrade over Tully Banta-Cain, but the Pats will need another edge player to step up. Jermaine Cunningham showed gradual improvement as a second-round rookie last season, but he’s more of a strongside 3-4 outside linebacker than true edge-rusher. Mark Anderson has startling speed around the corner but can’t seem to stay on anyone’s roster. Eric Moore is just a guy.

Linebackers Rob Ninkovich, Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes and Gary Guyton are all better read-and-react players than attackers. Of the bunch, Mayo is the star. He’s the NFL’s reigning tackle leader and, thanks to good instincts and anticipation, plays with excellent range against both run and pass. Spikes, an intriguing second-year pro, can be a good interior thumper, but in the short-term he’ll likely take a backseat to the speedier Guyton in nickel packages.

New England’s mixture of defensive techniques is most prevalent in the secondary. Belichick loves matchup zone concepts that require players to use man-techniques in defending an area. It’s not easy, which is part of the reason the Patriots have had a revolving door at the right cornerback position. They’re hoping that a healthy Leigh Bodden can stabilize this spot. They learned last season that Kyle Arrington lacks the necessary ball skills to survive in this role. Before that, similar conclusions had already been made about Darius Butler and Jonathan Wilhite.

No such worries on the left side. Devin McCourty is coming off one of the great rookie seasons for a cornerback. The lanky 5-11, 193-pounder from Rutgers has an almost eerie ability to backpedal with receivers screaming down the field. Also, he’s shrewder than most tenured veterans when it comes to using the sideline to his advantage. And by recording seven of New England’s league-high 25 interceptions last season, McCourty obviously has phenomenal ball skills.

There’s potentially a stellar long-term cornerbacking tandem in place with McCourty and this year’s 33rd overall pick, Ras-I Dowling. But if Bodden holds up outside, Dowling may not see much action if the coaches decide they can’t resist the physicality that safety Patrick Chung brings to the nickel slot. Chung, however, can be attacked in man coverage. He will line up at strong safety ahead of steady but mundane veteran James Sanders in base packages. (Sanders will assume the safety duties in nickel and dime.) At free safety will be dynamic playmaker Brandon Meriweather, assuming he doesn’t again drive coaches nuts with mental gaffes and freelancing.

Special Teams

Stephen Gostkowski was a top-five kicker before tearing his right quad last season. The sixth-year pro is back to kicking without reservations. Zoltan Mesko will be entrusted with the punting duties again. Wes Welker or Julian Edelman (or whoever can be counted on to make a fair catch, as Belichick’s goal with special teams is usually  just to break even) will field punts. Brandon Tate brings explosiveness to the kick return game.

Bottom Line

The system is outstanding. The talent stocking it is equally impressive. It’s just a matter of whether the Patriots can do something they surprisingly haven’t done well in recent years: hold serve in big games.

Predicted Finish: 1st A.F.C. East

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