The True Measure of a Pass-Heavy Offense

The popular perception is that the Green Bay Packers are great because of Aaron Rodgers and the passing offense. And for good reason: Rodgers (and by extension, the entire Green Bay passing offense) is on a record-breaking pace. Rodgers leads the league in completion percentage, touchdowns, touchdown percentage, yards per attempt, adjusted net yards per attempt and adjusted yards per attempt. He’s averaging 11.2 adjusted yards per attempt, the highest mark after a team’s first eight games of any quarterback in over 50 years.

But did you know that the Packers rank 21st in pass attempts this season? I doubt that that jibes with your impression of the Packers as a passing team. The 2007 Patriots — the year Tom Brady carved up opposing defenses nearly every week — barely passed more frequently than the average team that season. The 1999 Rams won the Super Bowl and earned the nickname the Greatest Show on Turf, as Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt led one of the great  passing attacks in football history. That year, the Rams ranked 15th in the league in rush attempts and 19th in pass attempts.

In all of these cases, the statistics did not tell the true story. Those teams passed so successfully that they frequently found themselves in run-favorable situations. Every N.F.L. fan knows that trailing teams tend to pass more frequently than winning teams, and the disparity is stronger the larger the lead or deficit. For example, teams this season are passing on 74 percent of plays when trailing by 17 to 24 points, but that  drops to 44 percent when leading by such a margin. How a game unfolds has a large impact on the ultimate run/pass ratio of a team. To truly understand a team’s offensive philosophy, you need to take into account the scoring flow of the game.

I looked at the play-by-play logs of every game this season, courtesy of Footballguys.com. I excluded all plays in which a team was winning or losing by over 24 points because those plays reveal little about a team’s gameplan (for example, the Colts called 23 pass plays and 23 runs in their 62-7 loss to the Saints; plays in those types of games are counted, but only until the games get out of hand). I also decided to exclude all rushing plays where the runner was the quarterback; many of those plays were probably designed pass plays, but others were designed runs or draws, along with quarterback sneaks and kneeldowns.

Finally, I noted how much the team with the ball was leading or trailing by at the start of each play; that will help to give us a general sense of whether it is a passing or running situation. For example, when the Lions came back from a 20-point deficit against the Vikings, the average scoring margin on Detroit plays was -8.5; not surprisingly, the Lions passed on 74 percent of plays in that game (passing plays include sacks). This past weekend, the Texans jumped out to an early lead against the Browns. Houston’s average offensive play was run with a 14.3-point lead; the Texans ran on 37 of 60 plays (this excludes the Matt Schaub touchdown run and his two kneeldowns at the end of the game). Both Arian Foster and Ben Tate rushed for over 100 yards.

The table below shows the average scoring margin for each “play” by each team this season. Remember, the scoring margin excludes plays where a team has a lead of 25 points or more or trails by such a  margin; it also excludes plays that end with the quarterback running. The table will loosely correlate with team strength, but there are several reasons (outside of the scope of this article) to hesitate before using these numbers as a sort of power ranking:

[Note: All statistics in this article are from before the Monday Night Football game between the Bears and Eagles.]

As you’d expect, the Packers have been in front most of the time this season. That helps  explain why they haven’t passed as frequently as you might think. As you can see, they rank just 13th in percentage of plays that were called passes:

So we know teams like the Steelers and the Packers have played with large leads, and pass more frequently than a team like the Texans. But how would we compare the 49ers to the Falcons? Or the Patriots to the Redskins? We need to convert “margin” and “pass percentage” to equivalent units. We can do that by looking at each team’s standard deviation in each category.

As you may recall from math class, standard deviation measures how spread out the observations are in a particular set of data. The actual standard deviations aren’t all that interesting here, but the key is that by finding out how far from average (as measured by standard deviation) each team is in each category, we can get a true sense of offensive philosophy. On average, the 32 teams ran offensive plays while trailing by 1.2 points (we would expect the average to be negative, because teams kick off after a touchdown or field goal).

The Texans were 1.8 standard deviations above average in the scoring margin category during Houston’s average play; the Packers were 1.7 standard deviations above average, the Steelers 1.6, and so on. At the bottom of the list, of course, would be the Rams at -1.9 standard deviations from the average (taking the standard deviation won’t change the order of the list; it simply measures the variance in the group.)

What about in the pass percentage category? The average team passed on 61 percent of its plays, using the definition of plays from this article. The Bucs were 1.5 standard deviations above average in percentage of plays that were passed; the Texans were -2.1 standard deviations from the average.

Once we have the “margin” category in the same unit as the “pass percentage” category, the rest of the math is easy. If a team has a low margin, that means it has frequently played from behind. If it is high in the pass percentage category, that means it tends to pass often. To measure how frequently a team passes after accounting for game situation, we simply add the standard deviation number in the margin category to the pass percentage standard deviation number.

The table below presents the results. After the team name, the first two columns are just the earlier data reprinted. The next two columns show how many standard deviations above or below average each team was in scoring margin and percentage of passes called. Finally, the last column shows how pass-heavy the offense truly is, after adjusting for average scoring margin.

Lo and behold, the Packers now look to be the most pass-happy team in the league. The Steelers and the Patriots are also in the top four, and the Saints are not far behind. Not surprisingly, the Jaguars and Chiefs lead the way when it comes to run-heavy offenses, regardless of situation. The Jets have actually been relatively run-heavy this season, but their game situation (trailing often) has somewhat distorted the numbers.

Perhaps the most interesting team? The Ravens. A couple of weeks ago, Terrell Suggs said the Ravens needed to pass less and run more; it’s hard to disagree with him. The Ravens have been extremely pass-heavy this season, once you factor in the game situation. Consider that against the Rams, when Baltimore raced out to a 21-0 lead before the first quarter ended, Joe Flacco threw 48 passes while the running backs had just 17 carries. Suggs’s comments came after the Jaguars loss, when Baltimore had 41 dropbacks against just 12 rushes in a game that was close throughout. Against the Steelers this weekend, Baltimore called 50 passing plays despite leading for a majority of the game.

Chase Stuart is a contributor to SmartFootball.com, Footballguys.com and Pro-Football-Reference.com. 

On Any Given Sunday, a 20-Point Lead Might Not Be Enough

Remember how the Saints poured it on against the Colts last Sunday? It turns out they had good reason to run up the score.

Via ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Sunday night:

 

 

When Ravens erased a 24-3 deficit and won 30-27, it marked a record 5th time this season a team trailed by at least 20 and came back to win.Mon Oct 31 01:42:20 via WhoSayAdam Schefter
AdamSchefter

 

 

Yes, it’s the year of the comeback. (No, relax; he’s still retired.) But the days of taking a 10-point lead and sitting on the ball may be receding into the past, especially with quick-strike spread offenses running up point totals and a lack of training camp work showing up in porous defenses.

Here’s a look at the five games Schefter was referring to:

Week 3: Lions 26, Vikings 23 With an assist from the Vikings, who blew double-digit halftime leads in their first three games, the Lions continued their unbeaten start by wiping out a 20-0 halftime deficit. Calvin Johnson caught two touchdown passes and recorded his first 100-yard game. He hasn’t slowed down since. “This is my best win ever,” said Lions center Dominic Raiola, who was 0 for 10 in the Metrodome before the game.

Week 3: Buffalo 34, New England 31 A week after rallying from a 21-3 deficit to beat the Raiders, the Bills spotted the Patriots a 21-0 lead and then roared back again. The victory ended a 15-game losing streak against the Patriots and announced the Bills’ revival. “It’s the biggest win of my career,” linebacker Chris Kelsay said.

Week 4: 49ers 24, Eagles 23 A 23-3 lead on San Francisco has been plenty for at least a decade, it seems, but this year’s 49ers are a different team. The Eagles found that out as Alex Smith went 13 of 17 for 201 yards and 2 touchdowns in the second half, and Frank Gore bulled in for the winning score with three minutes left. “It’s unacceptable to give up a lead that size in the second half,” Eagles defensive tackle Cullen Jenkins said. Take it easy, Cullen; this year it’s not.

Week 4: Lions 34, Cowboys 30 Trailing by 24 points after a Jason Witten touchdown in the third quarter, the Lions stormed back for their second straight massive comeback by returning Tony Romo interceptions for touchdowns on consecutive drives in the third quarter. Matthew Stafford took care of the rest, throwing two touchdown passes to — who else? — Calvin Johnson. “It’s crazy how it happens,” Stafford said. “When it was 27-3, we knew we had to start making plays. Once we did, we started catching fire.”

Week 8: Ravens 30, Cardinals 27 Baltimore broke the league record for 20-point comebacks in a season by rallying from a 24-3 deficit against Arizona, but not before hearing it from the home fans. “I don’t go to a lot of football games, but I probably would have wanted to boo if I was in the stands, too,” Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco said. “We weren’t looking too good.” He and his teammates responded with the biggest comeback in Ravens history: a Billy Cundiff field goal before halftime, three short touchdown runs by Ray Rice and — after Arizona  tied it with a field goal — a 25-yard winner by Cundiff as time expired.

ESPN.com’s Greg Garber wrote about the surge of comebacks after Week 5, but at that point could only make an educated guess at what was behind it:

The leading candidates are evolving offenses — aided and abetted by league legislation over the years — and the lockout. We would be remiss not to mention the Vikings, who blew leads of 10, 17 and 20 points, and Dallas quarterback Tony Romo, who helped engineer the squandering of 14- and 24-point leads. History, it should be noted, could not have been achieved without them.

Maybe that was why the Giants let the Dolphins ride in the driver’s seat for so long on Sunday. Maybe Eli Manning and Co. knew they had it all the way.

Extra point: What do you think is behind all the comebacks? Given the consequences of failure, N.F.L. coaches are famously conservative, especially late in games. So what are so many doing so wrong this season?

Monday Matchup: Ravens at Jaguars

Ravens at Jaguars, 8:30 p.m. Eastern, ESPN
Line: Ravens by 9

You know a franchise is in sorry shape when even opponents are nostalgic about its past. Ray Lewis sounded almost misty-eyed last week when he talked about the glory days of the Ravens-Jaguars rivalry. The teams played twice a year from 1996 through 2001 in the old A.F.C. Central and had some memorable meetings, including a 6-3 game in 2000 that featured 10 sacks and only 374 yards of total offense. “You know, we did have some great rivalries with the Jaguars for many years — for many, many years,” Lewis said, pining for the days of Fred Taylor, Mark Brunell and Jimmy Smith.

Baltimore and Jacksonville now meet every three years, and any “great Jaguars rivalries” have receded into the past. The Jaguars are on a five-game losing streak since their narrow 16-14 win over the Titans in the season opener, with the rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert completing 48.8 percent of his passes while opponents stack the line to stop the team’s one recognizable star, Maurice Jones-Drew. Lewis also had kind words for another figure from the past: Jaguars Coach Jack Del Rio, a former Ravens assistant. “Anytime you play a Jack Del Rio team, you have to know that they’re going to be ready to play,” he said. Even if you’re not certain who they are.

Pick: Ravens
(Pick does not reflect betting line)

Can Jets Handle Pressure of Being a Targeted Team?

“You’re either getting better or you’re getting worse”– Joe Paterno

One of the realities the 2-2 Jets are adapting to this season, their third with Rex Ryan as coach, is that they are no longer the hunters.

For two seasons, the Jets roamed the N.F.L. landscape with success, searching for and accumulating pelts to put on their wall. Three victories over New England, two over Indianapolis and single victories over San Diego and the Steelers while  going to back-to-back A.F.C. championship games had helped give the Jets the attention and respect they sought.

What has it all added up to?

Now it is the Jets who are the hunted.

Let’s start with two weeks ago, when Raiders Coach Hue Jackson made a point of saying he wanted his team to punch the Jets in the mouth and beat them at their own game. Jackson succeeded, and the Raider star is now shining a little brighter in the national spotlight.

On Sunday night, Baltimore put another hurting on the Jets and their already wounded pride. The Ravens shut down Rex Ryan’s ground-and-pound running game while scoring three defensive touchdowns.

Do you think New England might have something in store on Sunday in Foxborough, the site of the Jets’ division-round playoff victory over the Patriots last season, the game that Tom Brady described as one “he will never get over”? Anyone want to guess whether Brady has had this game circled on the schedule on his refrigerator door?

The bottom line is that the days of  sneaking up on teams is over. Do the Jets have what it takes to withstand the rigors of being a targeted team on a weekly basis?

It won’t matter whether the Jets can handle the pressure if they can’t pick up the quality of their play.

Let’s take a quick look at their problems, with some possible solutions:

1) The Jets can’t run the ball. Does this problem all fall on Shonn Greene? On the offensive line? On the play calling? The answer is probably a mix of all three.

As powerful a runner as Greene is, it’s possible he isn’t suited for the feature back role. It may not be fair to make that prognosis so early, especially since center Nick Mangold has been out for the better part of three of the Jets’ first four games. But the argument could be made that the Jets need a more elusive runner early in games to help create some momentum for the running game. If LaDainian Tomlinson is not the answer this season, as he was early last season, does that mean Joe McKnight deserves a chance to see what he can do? Maybe so.

2) The Jets can’t protect Mark Sanchez. This problem has been evident in every game this season. Against the Ravens,  Sanchez seldom seemed to have more than “one Mississippi” to get rid of the ball. If the Jets have room to maneuver under the salary cap, it is clear they need to look to improve their talent and production on the offensive line. Does anyone have Flozell Adams’s phone number?

3) The defense has underperformed. Yes, they finished strong against the Ravens, and Joe Flacco’s final numbers were terrible (10 for 31; 163 yards; INT). But the defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed for the better part of two quarters before it figured out how to disrupt Flacco. The Jets are going to face a very hungry, fast and feisty Patriots offense next week. Will they be able to turn back the clock and figure out how to get inside Tom Brady’s head again?

Extra point I’ll leave it to Fifth Down readers to break down any  other issues. What do the Jets need to do to get back to playing winning football?

Jets-Ravens: Matchup to Watch

Jets (2-1) at Ravens (2-1), Sunday at 8:20 p.m. Eastern, NBC

MATCHUP TO WATCH: Antonio Cromartie vs. Torrey Smith

Going by his season trends, Cromartie is due for a good game Sunday, and he will need one to counter Smith, a speedy rookie whose first three N.F.L. catches went for touchdowns last week against St. Louis. With Darrelle Revis most likely to be assigned to Anquan Boldin, Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco is bound to test Cromartie, who is recovering from bruised ribs, lungs and pride. He committed four critical penalties and muffed a kickoff against Oakland.

NUMBER TO WATCH: 134

That is how many rushing yards Shonn Greene has this season in three games. Of the 23 running backs with at least 40 carries this season, only Chris Johnson (98 yards) has been less productive, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com. With Haloti Ngata and Ray Lewis anchoring the middle of the Ravens’ defense, the Jets will probably throw the ball more than they would like. But any contribution from Greene, whose yards-per-carry average has increased every week, would help to offset the imbalance.

QUOTATION OF THE WEEK

“I just go back to my nightmares; when I wake up in the middle of the night sweating, it’s because I think of 2008, the three losses in 2008. He had a hand in all of them.”
The Ravens defensive coordinator CHUCK PAGANO on Santonio Holmes, who scored touchdowns in the Steelers’ three games against Baltimore, all victories, in 2008.

Week 4 N.F.L. Matchups

Jets (2-1) at Ravens (2-1)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Line: Ravens by 3.5.
Any team coached by a member of the Ryan family does not so much play a 16-game schedule as careen from bitter rivalry to bitter rivalry, each game becoming the kind of over-boiled grudge match usually settled with suplexes and folding chairs at ringside. It happened to Buddy Ryan’s Eagles, and it has happened to Rex Ryan’s Jets.
Jets-Cowboys becomes Rex Ryan against Rob Ryan. Jets-Patriots becomes Rex Ryan against Bill Belichick. Jets-Ravens devolves into Rex Ryan against the team that declined to promote him to head coach when he was its defensive coordinator. Next time the Jets face the Raiders, it will be Rex Ryan against the team that broke his quarterback’s nose. Even Rex Ryan could not muster a feud with the Jaguars, but Joe Namath got into the act this week, so if you play the current Jets against the 1968 version in a video game, that is now a grudge match, too.
Granted, the presence of the ex-Ravens Bart Scott, Jim Leonhard and Derrick Mason on the Jets roster does give the game a familiarity-breeds-contempt angle. “This is a family game, but it’s also a heated rivalry,” said Ravens defensive end Terrell Suggs, perhaps not realizing that Jets charity softball tournaments are also heated rivalries. “You’ve got to go beat up on the ones you love.” In other words, this time it’s personal. Just like all the other times. Pick: Jets.

Steelers (2-1) at Texans (2-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Texans by 4.
The season often starts this way for the Steelers. They grind out a couple of seemingly difficult wins against bad teams. They lose to the Ravens, or someone Ravens-like. We question their offensive line and remark that the team is not deploying the classic Steelers running game, because in Pittsburgh it is always 1978 and the only way to win is to hand off 40 times.
The Steelers have had a suspect offensive line for the entire Ben Roethlisberger era, made worse by Roethlisberger’s belief that getting rid of the ball on time causes back pimples. Bruce Arians has been the offensive coordinator for five years, and he has always been more pass-oriented than the guys with Franco Harris collector’s edition beer steins would like. The Steelers have reached two Super Bowls in four years through a succession of ugly wins. It is time to stop being surprised. Pick: Steelers.

Lions (3-0)  at Cowboys (2-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Cowboys by 1.
The Cowboys botched several center snaps on Monday night, and Tony Romo knows why: the Redskins were imitating his pre-snap cadence. That’s right: there is a Romo voice impersonator on the Redskins, or perhaps the team purchased one of those “Romo Calls” from a sporting goods store (“Blow into it, and American Idol runners-up flock to your position!”) The Romo Karaoke did not stop the Cowboys’ six field goals because no one knows what kicker Dan Bailey sounds like. (The holder Mat McBriar actually calls for the snap, but his voice was a mystery, too.)
Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson scored two touchdowns in each of his first three games, in part because opponents have an illogical impulse to leave him single-covered in clutch situations. The Cowboys will not make that mistake. “You always have to account for Calvin,” safety Gerald Sensabaugh said. Maybe he should tell the Vikings and the Chiefs. Pick: Cowboys.

Panthers (1-2) at Bears (1-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Bears by 6.5.
It’s time for advanced algebra with Mike Martz. Let x represent the amount of control Martz has over an offensive gameplan. Let f(x) represent running plays and g(x) represent passing plays. As x increases, the ratio of f(x) to g(x) is an asymptote approaching zero. Meanwhile, h(x), Lovie Smith’s blood pressure, and p(x), Jay Cutler’s health insurance premiums, increase exponentially. We would compute the rate of change in the Bears’ playoff hopes as Martz’s influence increases, but this is no place for derivative humor. For the Bears, Martz and his 4-to-1 pass-run ratios will always be an x-factor. Pick: Panthers.

Bills (3-0) at Bengals (1-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Bills by 3.
“The fandemonium is running high in Buffalo,” began a WIVB television segment about the Bills early last week. The nearly three-minute segment revealed that Bills merchandise is flying off the shelves, that Ryan Fitzgerald jerseys are on back order, that Bills fans are hanging out at the bar more but drinking less (“They don’t have to drink away their sorrows,” said the tavern manager Jill Vecchio, after wiping a bar top that looked perfectly clean in the first place) and that there is precious little else to talk about in greater Buffalo besides a three-game winning streak. One fan was said to be heading to an “exclusive Bills-only watering hole in Florida,” which makes you wonder how some business models survive the recession while other, saner ones fail. Pick: Bills.

Patriots (2-1) at Raiders (2-1)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Patriots by 4.
Raiders linebacker Rolando McClain said during the week that the Patriots were “just a finesse team.” Tom Brady, perhaps realizing that the criticism hit too close to home, immediately consented to the most famous buzzcut since Elvis Presley was drafted in 1957. The high ‘n’ tight Brady can take solace in the fact that only successful teams are accused of being “finesse,” often by grumbling opponents who fail to notice that their own offenses consist largely of end-arounds and cutesy option plays. Pick: Patriots.

Redskins (2-1) at Rams (0-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Redskins by 1.5.
Like the first frost of autumn, the first unhinged DeAngelo Hall rant was late to arrive this year. But once it came, it delivered everything we have come to expect in a Redskins player interview: frustration, profanity and more than a hint of insubordination. Hall criticized the coordinator Jim Haslett’s blitz packages, saying “you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure it out after a while.” Rocket scientists could not track a 6.5-ton satellite as it crashed to the earth last week, so they might find Haslett’s defense rather befuddling. Rams quarterback Sam Bradford has a degree in that most reliably predictive of all disciplines (finance), which may explain why he so often looks surprised. Pick: Redskins

49ers (2-1) at Eagles (1-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Eagles by 8.5.
X-rays on Michael Vick’s right hand revealed that the Eagles’ linebackers are terrible. The Eagles took eventual action, benching Casey Matthews in favor of Brian Rolle in a panic-scented move. Vick says that there is a “100 percent chance” he will play despite a tender nonthrowing hand. Speaking of percentages, the folks at FootballOutsiders.com have determined that the 49ers have a 74.7 percent chance of reaching the postseason; only the Packers and the Lions have better odds. The percentages are determined by feeding statistics and schedules to a computer, watching as the computer gains sentience and weeps at the fate of the Seahawks, the Cardinals and the Rams, then drawing the obvious conclusion. Pick: Eagles.

Vikings (0-3) at Chiefs (0-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Vikings by 1.5.
The Vikings have now blown halftime leads of 17-7, 17-0, and 20-0, and have been outscored, 67-6, in second halves and overtime. Coach Leslie Frazier and the offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave have made plenty of questionable decisions late in games. Why leave Calvin Johnson single-covered in overtime? Why work Adrian Peterson into the ground, then hand off to Toby Gerhart on fourth-and-1? The Vikings can defeat the Chiefs without solving these riddles. After that, their fans are advised to tape the games and watch them backward so they can enjoy the spirited comebacks. Pick: Vikings.

Saints (2-1) at Jaguars (1-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Saints by 7.
The Jaguars defensive coordinator Mel Tucker tore a quadriceps muscle while goofing off with other coaches after practice. Coach Jack Del Rio talked Tucker and the offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter into fielding punts from a JUGS machine, and things went horribly awry. Thank heavens they did not opt for skeet shooting instead. Del Rio was later seen grabbing the JUGS machine by the collar, getting up in its grill and shouting “You fool! That ball was meant for Koetter!” Tucker will miss this week’s game, but defensive coordinators do not do much against the Saints anyway, except stand around and contemplate futility. Pick: Saints.

Titans (2-1) at Browns (2-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Browns by 1.
The Titans’ passing attack has been surprisingly efficient in the early weeks, but that may change now that Kenny Britt has torn an anterior cruciate ligament. Britt had 17 receptions for 289 yards and 3 touchdowns, picking up much of the offensive slack left by Chris Johnson, who is still struggling to average more than one body length per carry. “It’s not like we can magically create another Kenny Britt,” quarterback Matt Hasselbeck said during the week. If they could, the Titans would win the first-ever Nobel Prize in Traffic Violations. Pick: Browns.

Falcons (1-2) at Seahawks (1-2)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Falcons by 4.5.
The Falcons have surrendered 13 sacks in three games, prompting Coach Mike Smith to consider personnel changes: left tackle Sam Baker is a leading candidate to be benched if there is trouble Sunday. Meanwhile, on the police blotter, kicker Matt Bryant got his stolen golf clubs back. A Chinese food deliveryman swiped the clubs from Bryant’s garage, then traded the clubs for drugs — who knew there was even an exchange rate? The police eventually tracked the stolen clubs by their serial numbers on the Internet, untangling one of the most pathetic webs of crime ever spun. Bryant’s prized Scotty Cameron putter, like the Falcons’ pass protection, was still missing at press time. Pick: Falcons.

Giants (2-1) at Cardinals (1-2)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Giants by 1.
The Giants’ injury report arrived in the in-box this week, and it did not crash the server, there was no “low memory” error and there was no need to change toner cartridges twice while printing it up. Those are positive signs: Mario Manningham and Osi Umenyiora are back at practice, and additions are finally starting to outnumber subtractions. Eli Manning is fifth in the league in quarterback rating, and the Giants host the Seahawks after Sunday’s journey to Arizona, where Kevin Kolb is fading a little every week, running back Beanie Wells is banged up and the local fans are distracted by the Diamondbacks. At this rate, Tom Coughlin may be almost cheerful by November. Pick: Giants.

Dolphins (0-3) at Chargers (2-1)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Chargers by 7.
Reggie Bush Rationalization Season is upon us, a time to examine all of the underlying reasons for Bush’s slow start while missing the main reason: he simply is not very good. “This last game, I got caught pressing. I’ve got to be patient,” Bush said Wednesday. And the Wednesday before that. And most Wednesdays in 2009 and 2010. Tony Sparano wants his staff to “do a better job of getting Reggie in space, try to get Reggie touches early.” Bush fumbled twice in the first half against the Browns, once on a pitch to the outside that gave him plenty of space in which to bobble. The Dolphins signed running back Steve Slaton this week. He’s a small, shifty back who has had some brushes with greatness but has reliability issues. They must be trying to complete the set. Pick: Chargers.

Broncos (1-2) at Packers (3-0)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Packers by 12.5.
The Packers’ midweek injury list was long. Running back Ryan Grant (kidneys) and tackle Bryan Bulaga (knee) are unlikely to play. Tight end Jermichael Finley and three key players in the secondary (Nick Collins, Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams) were all either out or limited in practice as of Wednesday. The Packers had a similar injury rash last season, and they won the Super Bowl by replacing their starters with other team’s castoffs. Any general manager who releases a practice squad player right now is simply playing into Ted Thompson’s hands. Pick: Packers.

Colts (0-3) at Buccaneers (2-1)
Monday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Buccaneers by 10.
The two franchises that Tony Dungy helped to build are going in different directions. The Buccaneers are an up-and-coming team with lots of quality players but few superstars. The Colts are scotch-taping Kerry Collins together in what is becoming an increasingly depressing farce of an effort to survive without Peyton Manning. Dungy has become a best-selling author since leaving the Colts back when Manning was healthy and the supporting cast was capable. Dungy’s next inspirational book should be titled “Distancing Yourself from Disaster.” Pick: Buccaneers.

For Jets, Clamors of Doubt Are Familiar

After the Jets’ 45-3 loss to the Patriots last December, I wrote that no matter how successful the Jets were, the team’s doubters would never be far behind.

Welcome to the first such chapter of the 2011 season.

No one is questioning that the Jets’ 34-24 defeat at Oakland on Sunday qualifies as a bad loss. When you allow 234 rushing yards, no matter how the yards were accumulated, nothing positive can be drawn from it. The reasons behind how the big plays happened need to be addressed.

But the notion that the Jets are going to look at the schedule on the wall as if it were a bogeyman in the room? I wouldn’t count on that.

Worried about the Baltimore-New England 1-2 punch on the schedule in the next two weeks? Well, the Jets have been there and done that.

They opened the 2010 season with the same schedule under far more ominous circumstances. A bad loss by the Jets to Washington in the third preseason game in 2010 — the starters’ final preparation for the regular season — had many doubters saying that the Jets were not going to be ready for their tough early schedule. And Darrelle Revis was still a question mark because of his contract dispute. The Jets’ victory over the Patriots in Week 2 righted the ship and pushed the doubters aside until later in the season.

For the Jets, sometimes going back to the drawing board is as simple as going back to basics. For a reminder of what that means, here is another look at what Rex Ryan laid out as his plan when he was introduced as the coach in January 2009.

So what are the Jets’ concerns? Here is a short list:

1) Sunday’s loss to Oakland was the Jets’ second straight defeat to a team whose stated goal was to out-physical them. The other was to Pittsburgh in last season’s A.F.C. championship game. For the Jets to get back on track, that cannot stand.

2) Avoid the mistakes on the road that serve to energize the home crowd and the home team. Against the Raiders, two such instances stood out. The first was Mark Sanchez’s ill-advised throw into the end zone at a well-covered Derrick Mason. The throw was intercepted, and it came one play after Jeremy Kerley’s electric 53-yard punt return. The other was the decision to go for the first down on 4th-and-2 at the Oakland 37 late in the third quarter. The Raiders had been playing on a long field the entire game — 7 of their 9 possessions had started from their 20-yard line or worse — and their fourth-down stop charged up the stadium. The Raiders followed with a four-play, 63-yard drive that gave them the lead for good.

Are the Jets overrated? Will their doubters have the final say? The Jets have been down this road before and lived to tell about it. Fifth Down readers can join the discussion on this and other topics with George Bretherton and Bret Leuthner tonight from 6 p.m. to 7 p.m. Listen in or call in at  609-910-0687.

N.F.L. Week 3 Film Review, Including Jets-Raiders

A closer look at some of the games in Week 3, via film analysis.

Jets O vs. Raiders D

The Jets came out with a very identifiable approach. In the run game, it was sweeps outside to take advantage of the offensive tackles’ athleticism and get Shonn Greene going downhill (he can be terrific when he has momentum). In the pass game, Mark Sanchez rolled out off play-fakes. This was all the Jets did through the air in the first half. The logic behind it was smart. The Raiders play almost exclusively man coverage. Play-action extends the play and forces defensive backs to hold their man coverage longer. Also, if the linebackers bite on the fake, the nature of man-defense usually carries them out of position. The Jets had a good formula, but the Raiders caught on in the second half. The linebackers did a better job of identifying LaDainian Tomlinson’s routes out of the backfield. That was critical because the corners were already stifling Jets receivers (Santonio Holmes was nowhere to be found in this one). Oakland also anticipated Sanchez’s designed pocket movement, which led to four second-half sacks.

Raiders O vs. Jets D
It was a solid performance by the Raiders in which they took advantage of favorable field position and made a few timely big plays. They finished with a somewhat misleading 234 yards rushing. Twenty-seven of those yards came off a lucky Darren McFadden scramble from an unsuccessful halfback option pass and 23 came off an outstanding improvisational scamper by Denarius Moore on a reverse. Earlier in the game, McFadden got 70 yards on one spectacular outside run (pure speed on that play). The Jet linebackers need to play better.

The Raiders’ offensive line won the trench battle, both with stellar run-blocking (center Samson Satele had his best game in years) and in identifying the Jets’ pass-rushing concepts. This was important considering the Raiders came in knowing that they wouldn’t be able to throw on Darrelle Revis and knowing, as usual, that they often wouldn’t ask Jason Campbell to make more than two, sometimes three, reads on a given play.

Vikings O vs. Lions D
You can talk about Minnesota’s play-calling all you want, but this game was dictated by Detroit’s outstanding defensive line. The Lions realized after the first quarter that their down four could readily outperform Minnesota’s down five. Thus, the Lions were able to play seven men in coverage, which allowed their cornerbacks to tighten on wideouts Michael Jenkins and Bernard Berrian (two guys who struggle to get downfield against good coverage). Detroit also curtailed Minnesota’s rushing attack by having defensive backs fly into the run front on the outside (the Vikings were running almost exclusively outside in the second half because Ndamukong Suh and Corey Williams owned the trenches). The defensive backs often did not take down Adrian Peterson, but their presence forced him to stop his feet, which is the only reason Detroit’s fast outside backers (Justin Durant and DeAndre Levy) were able to reach him. This is a great illustration of the type of problems that a meager offensive line and limited receiving corps will continue to cause for the Vikings in 2011.

Lions O vs. Vikings D
Detroit spent most of the game throwing between the numbers out of three-receiver shotgun sets. They clearly liked the matchup of tight end Brandon Pettigrew (a big, plodding but effective runner) against Viking linebackers. Jahvid Best’s contributions came in the receiving department, as the Lions knew they didn’t have a powerful enough front line to move the Vikings off the ball in the ground game. Minnesota’s defensive front four was outstanding. Ends Jared Allen and Brian Robison both reached the quarterback with speed off the edge and held their ground consistently against the run. The Vikings, however, did not have a cornerback who could match Calvin Johnson’s athleticism (most teams don’t) or an answer for Detroit’s inside passing game. Over all, Matthew Stafford did a good job reading the field.

49ers O vs. Bengals D
The Niners’ victory was a product of their defense’s effort. The offense went in with a “don’t botch it” gameplan. In that sense, they succeeded; their only turnover was a Frank Gore fumble that gave the Bengals three extra points in the fourth quarter. Still, it was an unsettlingly rudimentary gameplan for an offense that didn’t even bother attacking vertically. The passing game ran through Vernon Davis, who consistently got open thanks to his ability to execute a variety of routes from a variety of alignments. That was the only creative aspect to the plan – and, as it turned out, the only one San Francisco needed. San Francisco’s offensive line must play with more consistency, and Alex Smith must make quicker (much quicker) decisions in the pocket.

Bengals O vs. 49ers D
After Cincinnati’s impressive opening drive, San Francisco’s secondary closed off the intermediate quick routes and took away Andy Dalton’s simplistic first reads. Dalton proved to be far less effective when he wasn’t able to make throws from a clean pocket. That might be a consequence of his mediocre arm strength (which is usually a key aspect of improvisational quarterbacking). Dalton is accurate, but his inexperience is showing. If the Bengals had this game to do over again, they almost certainly would not have waited until late in the fourth quarter to split out tight end Jermaine Gresham and feature him in the passing attack. He was a killer late in the fourth. Credit the 49ers front seven for another strong game. End Ray McDonald and outside linebacker Ahmad Brooks were particularly impressive. McDonald was in attack mode all afternoon and outplayed right tackle Andre Smith (who needs to get meaner and use his raw power). The agile Brooks consistently got in the backfield against both the run and pass.

Broncos O vs. Titans D
The Broncos couldn’t overcome their lack of firepower. With Knowshon Moreno out, there was no backfield speed to rely on. Virtually every time Willis McGahee took the handoff and finally got back to the line of scrimmage, he’d be met by a heap of bodies. Fullback Spencer Larsen did not get great movement as a lead-blocker, and the Broncos offensive line as a whole had trouble displacing Tennessee’s low-leveraged defensive tackles (Shaun Smith was particularly impressive). With no backfield or outside speed to work with, Kyle Orton was compelled to dink and dunk in the flats. That’s always an easy formula to defend, especially for a Titans D that has firm tackling corners and solid pass-defending outside linebackers.

Titans O vs. Broncos D
The Titans should be very encouraged by what they saw from Matt Hasselbeck. After struggling to grasp a new system in August, he has found his comfort zone. Hasselbeck was confident and efficient in his reads and benefitted from a few impressive catches by Nate Washington. It’s encouraging that Tennessee was able to move the ball respectably despite losing receiver Kenny Britt early and getting nothing out of their run game. The explanation for this week’s stagnant run game is that Chris Johnson was, for whatever reason, slower out of the backfield than usual. He’s having to see the holes before he shifts into top gear. In the N.F.L., you have to instinctively locate the hole the second the ball is snapped. Johnson didn’t have great help; Tennessee’s interior offensive linemen were unable to generate movement and power. Broncos defensive tackle Broderick Bunkley played extremely well on running downs, while Joe Mays played exactly how you want your 4-3 Mike ‘backer to play.

Ravens O vs. Rams D
With aging cornerback Al Harris and undrafted second-year pro Darian Stewart having prominent roles in the Rams’ secondary this game, Ravens offensive coordinator Cam Cameron came out firing deep. The Ravens executed a lot of deliberately designed big plays, mainly off play-action. Rookie wideout Torrey Smith, who was not relevant the first two games this season, filled in for an injured Lee Evans and lit the world on fire. Smith has natural instincts for tracking the ball and can accelerate late in his sprint. After Smith scored three first-quarter touchdowns, the Rams rolled safety help to his side and started losing one-on-one matchups underneath to Ed Dickson and Anquan Boldin.

To give you an idea of just how aggressive the Ravens were through the air, Smith’s second and third touchdowns were both preceded by unsuccessful deep bombs in his direction. It was a barrage of deep strikes. Clearly, Cameron and Jim Harbaugh have developed more trust in Joe Flacco. Baltimore’s dynamic passing attack opened up the run game and made life easy for Ray Rice and Ricky Williams. Right guard Marshal Yanda was terrific as a playside run-blocker. As for the Rams, no players stood out – they were all back on their heels in the first quarter and, strategically, a step behind with their blitzes in the second and third quarters.

Rams O vs. Ravens D
Just as with the other side of the ball, Baltimore outcoached and outperformed St. Louis. Physically, the Rams didn’t have an answer for the voracious and supple Terrell Suggs or the immovable Terrence Cody (the second-year pro appears to be blossoming quickly). Strategically, they couldn’t solve Baltimore’s presnap disguises. When the Rams had base personnel on the field, the Ravens played coverage; when the Rams had extra receivers, the Ravens blitzed. Both tactics seemed to catch Josh McDaniels and Company off-guard. Part of the problem is the Rams receivers don’t have enough quickness to consistently create separation on their own.

Andy Benoit is an N.F.L. analyst for CBSSports.com and founder of NFLTouchdown.com. He can be reached at andy.benoit@NFLTouchdown.com or @Andy_Benoit.

Remembering Orlando Brown the Football Player

He may be remembered more for his lawsuit against the N.F.L., but few players got more out of what they were given than Orlando Brown. He achieved his potential. Brown was found dead on Friday in his apartment in Baltimore. He was 40 years old:

When Orlando Brown arrived at the training camp of the old Cleveland Browns in 1993, he was, to say the least, an unlikely candidate for a lengthy N.F.L. career. He was slow, he didn’t have the quickest feet around, and he had little experience as a pass blocker. He made up for it with a positive attitude, the capacity for hard work, and a love for the game of football. It didn’t take long for Brown to develop into one of the better offensive tackles of the 1990s.

Brown was a defensive lineman at South Carolina State until the middle of his junior year. He finished his college career as a tackle on a run-first offense. When Cleveland’s pro personnel assistant, Scott Pioli, visited the campus to work out another player, Brown insisted on a tryout. He was obviously a project, but the Browns saw enough to sign him as a free agent after the draft. That summer, at training camp, Brown got into so many fights that Cleveland’s coach, Bill Belichick, sometimes had him wear just shorts and a T-shirt while everyone else was practicing in helmets and shoulder pads.

Brown, better knows as Zeus (a nickname given to him by his mother before he was born), spent his rookie year on injured reserve. He used that time diligently learning and refining the fundamentals of offensive line play. The organization was impressed with his desire to improve, both on the field and in the classroom. Brown studied a lot of tape that year of the Rams Hall of Fame right tackle Jackie Slater.

Halfway through the 1994 season, Brown became Cleveland’s starting right tackle. At first, the offensive coaches put a tight end next to him to help on passing downs, but, before long, he was on his own. Brown did a good job of picking up stunts and, by keeping his hands within the frame of the defender’s body, he was able to hold without being detected by the officials.

At 6-7 and about 360 pounds, Brown used his size, strength, power and toughness to intimidate the opponent. He understood the psychology of the line of scrimmage. The goal was to physically dominate the man across from you, to break his will, and to make him quit. While technique was important, once the game started, this was accomplished by any means necessary. “I love to see people bleed”, he once said. “I’m no big talker. I do my talking by hitting my man, throwing him to the ground, jumping on him.” (Leigh Montville, “Shall We Dance”, Sports Illustrated, Dec. 6, 1999)

Brown went with Cleveland when the franchise moved to Baltimore in 1996. After three years with the Ravens, he signed a 6-year, $27 million free-agent contract with the expansion Browns in 1999. Late that season he received national attention because of an accident that nearly blinded him.

Early in the second quarter of a Week 15 game against Jacksonville, the Browns were called for a false start penalty. The referee, Jeff Triplette, blew the whistle and threw his flag, which was weighted with BBs. The flag flew between the bars of Brown’s cage facemask and struck his right eye. Brown went to the sideline holding his eye but turned around and came back onto the field and shoved Triplette to the ground. He was given an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty and was immediately ejected from the game. Three days later, the league suspended him indefinitely.

Brown had blurred vision and bleeding in the eye and was hospitalized for six days. Despite numerous treatments around the country, he wasn’t medically cleared to play again until early 2003. That March, Brown signed a free-agent contract with the Ravens. He played his final three seasons back in Baltimore wearing a tinted visor over his facemask and goggles underneath. In the meantime, his lawsuit against the N.F.L. was settled out of court in 2002.

The doctors told Brown that getting to the hospital so soon after the incident probably saved his eye. “People ask me what I’m going to do when I see that ref”, Brown said in 2003. “I’m going to kiss him, that’s what I’m going to do. If he hadn’t thrown me out, I would have lost my eye.” (Phil Taylor, “Seeing Is Believing”, Sports Illustrated, June 9, 2003)

Week after week, Brown lined up against defensive ends who were more athletically gifted than him. Many were high draft picks from major football powerhouses. And yet, most of the time, he was able to defeat them. He’s a great example of a self-made player, of the connection between hard work and results. When given the opportunity, Orlando Brown was ready.

Andy Barall writes about pro football history for The Fifth Down.