Monday, October 31, 2011

On Any Given Sunday, a 20-Point Lead Might Not Be Enough

Remember how the Saints poured it on against the Colts last Sunday? It turns out they had good reason to run up the score.

Via ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Sunday night:

 

 

When Ravens erased a 24-3 deficit and won 30-27, it marked a record 5th time this season a team trailed by at least 20 and came back to win.Mon Oct 31 01:42:20 via WhoSay

 

 

Yes, it’s the year of the comeback. (No, relax; he’s still retired.) But the days of taking a 10-point lead and sitting on the ball may be receding into the past, especially with quick-strike spread offenses running up point totals and a lack of training camp work showing up in porous defenses.

Here’s a look at the five games Schefter was referring to:

Week 3: Lions 26, Vikings 23 With an assist from the Vikings, who blew double-digit halftime leads in their first three games, the Lions continued their unbeaten start by wiping out a 20-0 halftime deficit. Calvin Johnson caught two touchdown passes and recorded his first 100-yard game. He hasn’t slowed down since. “This is my best win ever,” said Lions center Dominic Raiola, who was 0 for 10 in the Metrodome before the game.

Week 3: Buffalo 34, New England 31 A week after rallying from a 21-3 deficit to beat the Raiders, the Bills spotted the Patriots a 21-0 lead and then roared back again. The victory ended a 15-game losing streak against the Patriots and announced the Bills’ revival. “It’s the biggest win of my career,” linebacker Chris Kelsay said.

Week 4: 49ers 24, Eagles 23 A 23-3 lead on San Francisco has been plenty for at least a decade, it seems, but this year’s 49ers are a different team. The Eagles found that out as Alex Smith went 13 of 17 for 201 yards and 2 touchdowns in the second half, and Frank Gore bulled in for the winning score with three minutes left. “It’s unacceptable to give up a lead that size in the second half,” Eagles defensive tackle Cullen Jenkins said. Take it easy, Cullen; this year it’s not.

Week 4: Lions 34, Cowboys 30 Trailing by 24 points after a Jason Witten touchdown in the third quarter, the Lions stormed back for their second straight massive comeback by returning Tony Romo interceptions for touchdowns on consecutive drives in the third quarter. Matthew Stafford took care of the rest, throwing two touchdown passes to — who else? — Calvin Johnson. “It’s crazy how it happens,” Stafford said. “When it was 27-3, we knew we had to start making plays. Once we did, we started catching fire.”

Week 8: Ravens 30, Cardinals 27 Baltimore broke the league record for 20-point comebacks in a season by rallying from a 24-3 deficit against Arizona, but not before hearing it from the home fans. “I don’t go to a lot of football games, but I probably would have wanted to boo if I was in the stands, too,” Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco said. “We weren’t looking too good.” He and his teammates responded with the biggest comeback in Ravens history: a Billy Cundiff field goal before halftime, three short touchdown runs by Ray Rice and — after Arizona  tied it with a field goal — a 25-yard winner by Cundiff as time expired.

ESPN.com’s Greg Garber wrote about the surge of comebacks after Week 5, but at that point could only make an educated guess at what was behind it:

The leading candidates are evolving offenses — aided and abetted by league legislation over the years — and the lockout. We would be remiss not to mention the Vikings, who blew leads of 10, 17 and 20 points, and Dallas quarterback Tony Romo, who helped engineer the squandering of 14- and 24-point leads. History, it should be noted, could not have been achieved without them.

Maybe that was why the Giants let the Dolphins ride in the driver’s seat for so long on Sunday. Maybe Eli Manning and Co. knew they had it all the way.

Extra point: What do you think is behind all the comebacks? Given the consequences of failure, N.F.L. coaches are famously conservative, especially late in games. So what are so many doing so wrong this season?

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