Rugby World Cup 2011: Predictions – Too little too late for Scotland, Samoa and Italy in battle of bonus points

Take your pick of headlines for this weekend’s rugby… Sweet and sour success for Scotland; Big hits but little luck for Samoa; Pasta and basta for Italy.

All three are tantalisingly close to the play-offs, but for different reasons they’ll all fall short of a quarter-final place.

Welcome to the start of the real world cup, a newspaper headline in Auckland read today, and they’re right. Come Sunday night and there will be elation and depression in almost equal measure. It’s the weekend of the bonus points.

Amazingly at this late stage in the pool games, only New Zealand are absolutely guaranteed a quarter-final berth irrespective of what happens in Pool A. Canada could still pip France to the runners-up place, but only a double-deluded dunce would see them beat the All Blacks with a bonus point in the process and France lose heavily to Tonga. So that’s settled.

Then it becomes interesting. Pools B and D will require bonus points to upset the current standings. Argentina will no doubt smash Georgia, so Scotland need not only beat old foe England at Eden Park on Saturday, but do so with four tries and deny England a losing bonus point.

A haggis or two too far? Absolutely – as Scottish fans here in Auckland readily admit. And yet, will this required hell-for-leather approach liberate the Scots for once and see them throw all caution to the wind?

I’ll predict Scotland to actually score a try or two – despite their lame duck performances at RWC 2011 so far – but to fall short in the end (and possibly even get beaten by England at the death as the clock ticks down and the dream dies fast). Scotland 21 England 19.

Likewise in Pool D, where the current table topper could still depart home on Monday. On most days I’d say smash-and-run Samoa have four tries in them, but they’ve looked hesitant at RWC2011 while South Africa are showing sharp and ruthless signs. Wales will do the business comfortably against Fiji on Sunday, so it’s goodbye Samoa at North Harbour on Friday. South Africa 37 Samoa 22.

The biggest and most intriguing battle looms in Pool C, where unbeaten Ireland could still exit early. And Italy don’t even need to score four tries to make that happen – though they’ll have to deny Declan Kidney’s team a losing bonus point.

But that’s poppycock. Italy's forwards are mostly awesome, but their backs often make a plate of spaghetti look orderly and organised. So Ireland 28 Italy 13.

Fair calls or ramblings of a madman as we start this weekend of shock and awe? Your calls please…

This blog is supported by Maximuscle, suppliers of Creatine to Courtney Lawes, Joe Simpson and the Welsh Rugby Team.

RWC 2011: a tournament too long? Predict the scores and win sports gear and products

At last! After waiting almost four years we can finally say: the Rugby World Cup starts this week! It seems like an eternity since the lights dimmed at Stade de France in 2007 with the announcer booming: “See you in New Zealand in 2011.”

Simply can’t wait for the action to start on Friday – and looking closely at the schedule, there’s not a week that doesn’t offer some cracking, intriguing match-ups. That said, there are also games that seem ideal to combine with doing the laundry or replacing expired light bulbs; some of them just leave me cold.

Which makes me wonder – just as in 2007 – is six weeks plus just too long for this tournament? Yes, I know it’s not tennis and teams can’t smash and bash the hell out of each other every second day. And yes, I agree with calls that the game must become truly global and that the minnows need exposure against the big teams to learn.

But we’re bound to see some of the minors conceding 80, 90 or even 100 ponts – and how much do they really learn from that? All while a ‘classic’ like Georgia v Romania is likely to appeal to people in, er, Georgia and Romania, but probably not to that many neutrals – especially not at 7.30am UK time.

So what’s the solution? Let only the top eight or 10-ranked teams contest the RWC? Or have a separate ‘world championship’ for the lower-ranked teams? Or what about a hybrid? The top 10 in the world qualify automatically, while teams ranked 11-20 – irrespective what continent they come from – play a tournament a month or two before the next RWC, with the top two progressing to the real deal. That way, if nothing else, you find two relatively in-form minnows on the big stage – more likely to be truly competitive than hopelessly weak teams who happened to be best of a bad lot in their region at the time of qualifying. Would really like to hear your suggestions on this problem.

And so on to this weekend – and your chance to win choice Maximuscle gear and products. Maximuscle fuel England’s Courtney Lawes and Joe Simpson, and the Welsh rugby team, and they’ll be sponsoring this blog during RWC 2011 to get me out to New Zealand, to report on some matches, drink beer with the fans (from both hemispheres!) and hopefully let readers who can’t make it out there, share more in the excitement.

The competition is simple: predict the scores in England v Argentina, and Wales v South Africa, by leaving a comment on this blog. Winner is person to correctly predict both outcomes with the smallest total points difference in the two matches. So get your thinking caps on. Entries close 9am UK time on Saturday, September 10.

Coming up on Thursday: I do what only a fool will do, predict how the pools will pan out and who the likely quarter-finalists will be. And I’ll be asking you to also get off the fence! 

This blog is supported by Maximuscle, the sports nutrition choice of Courtney Lawes, Joe Simpson and the Welsh Rugby Team. For information on how Maximuscle is the Team Behind the Team, visit www.maximuscle.com/tbtt