Different but Brilliant: Wes Welker and Calvin Johnson

There may not be two distinctly different players in the league, but somehow, they play the same position.

Wes Welker is one of the shortest, smallest players in the N.F.L. He was a star high school football player in Oklahoma, but he couldn’t even get a scholarship from Tulsa. Despite a great career at Texas Tech, the 5-foot-9, 185-pound Welker was never invited to the N.F.L. scouting combine. He was not drafted. He was signed as a free agent by the Chargers, then cut after one game.

Calvin Johnson might be the most physically gifted player in a league full of them. At 6-5, 240, Johnson is a defense’s  nightmare. He was the talk of the scouting combine, where he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.36 seconds. His vertical leap of 45 inches means no one can match him when the ball is in the air. There’s a reason he’s nicknamed Megatron.

Each is dominating the league in his own way. And after four weeks, Johnson and Welker are putting themselves in position to overtake three of the game’s greatest wide receivers. For Johnson, this was the sort of future that seemed preordained, that is, until the Detroit Lions drafted him with the second overall pick in the 2007 draft. The Lions were picking in the top 10 of the draft for the sixth straight season, and the previous five selections — Ernie Sims, Mike Williams, Roy Williams, Charles Rogers and Joey Harrington — had been monumental busts. Those drafts laid the foundation for the team that went 0-16 in 2008.

For Welker, it was always more about survival. After signing with the Dolphins following his cup of coffee in San Diego, he didn’t catch a single pass in his rookie season and fumbled four times as a returner. But he earned more playing the time the following year, then burst onto the scene by catching 67 passes in 2006. In a game in New England, Welker grabbed nine passes — and Bill Belichick’s attention. The following March, just weeks before the Lions drafted Johnson, the Patriots traded two draft picks to acquire Welker.

In 2007, Welker led the league in receptions. In 2008, Johnson led the league with 12 touchdown catches. In 2009, Welker again led the league in receptions; in 2010, Johnson again caught 12 touchdown passes. This year, the two are tormenting secondaries even by their lofty standards.

Welker has 40 catches and 616 receiving yards. Not only does he lead the league in both categories, but they’re also the highest marks after any team’s first four games in N.F.L. history.  Johnson has scored two touchdowns in every game. His eight receiving touchdowns are the most by any player after four games, and he just became the second player to record four consecutive games with multiple touchdown grabs (tying Cris Carter, 1995). Welker caught a 99-yard touchdown pass. Johnson caught two fourth-quarter touchdown passes to help the Lions rally past the Cowboys.

Both players have been as valuable as any non-quarterback in the league. The Lions and the Patriots each have scored 135 points this season, trailing only the Green Bay Packers. The teams are a combined 7-1, with the only loss coming in a game in which Welker caught 16 passes for 217 yards, both of which have been unmatched by any other player this season. And together, they seem to be taking aim at all of the league’s single-season receiving records.

Both players have endured injuries in their careers, but assuming good health, can either of them make 2011 a record-breaking season?

Receptions: Marvin Harrison, 143, 2002

Welker would need 104 catches over the next 12 games to break Harrison’s record. But it may not be as unreachable as you might think. In 2009, an injured Welker missed two games early in the season, but caught 122 passes over his first 13 games, for a remarkable 9.4 receptions per game average. In the season finale in Houston, Welker  tore his ACL and MCL on his first reception of the game. A brutal knee injury can take more than a year to heal, and in 2010 Welker did not look like the same player he had been during his first three seasons with the Patriots. But with a 10-catch-per-game average in 2011, it’s safe to say he’s back. With the way the Patriot offense and defense have looked this season (more on that, below), Welker could make a legitimate run at the receptions mark.

Trivia: Since 1960, eight players have caught 40 or more passes over a four-game span: Brandon Marshall (45), Marvin Harrison (43), Wes Welker (43), Jerry Rice (42), Cris Carter (41), Andre Johnson (41), Jimmy Smith (41) and Kellen Winslow Sr. (40)

Receiving Yards: Jerry Rice, 1,848 yards, 1995

The San Francisco 49ers ran 1,092 plays in 1995, more than any team ran in 2010. The 49ers also passed 644 times, a number bested by only the Colts and Saints last year. The Patriots are fourth in the league in pass attempts, but it goes without saying that Welker is no Jerry Rice. Welker has always been a possession receiver, more likely to rack up high catch totals instead of big yards. He gained 1,175 yards in 2007 and then 1,165 in 2008. He had just 848 yards last year, despite 86 catches. The most optimistic outlook? In his first 13 games in ‘09, he gained 1,336 yards, for an average of 102.8 yards per game. If he averaged that over the next 12, he’d finish with 1,849 receiving yards. Unless everything goes perfectly, this mark is unlikely to be challenged by Welker. Carolina’s Steve Smith has 530 receiving yards through four games, and is probably a better bet to lead the league in receiving yards this year. Once Aaron Hernandez returns, Welker’s share of the Patriots pie will decrease.

Trivia: Since 1960, 16 receivers have topped 600 yards over a four-game span, most recently Chad Ochocinco in 2006.

Receiving Touchdowns: Randy Moss, 23, 2007; Jerry Rice, 22, 1987

Moss set the record with receiving touchdowns in ‘07, but Rice scored 22 touchdowns in the strike-shortened 1987 season. At this pace, Johnson might beat both. Johnson has been hamstrung by less than stellar quarterbacks, but there’s no doubt that he clicks with Matthew Stafford. He caught a touchdown in each of Stafford’s last three starts as a rookie in 2009. In 2010, Stafford only started three games: Johnson caught a touchdown in the first game of the season, but officials overturned it on questionable grounds. Megatron caught three touchdown passes in his next game with Stafford. In Stafford’s third and final start of the ‘10 season, Johnson was marooned on Revis Island. But with 8 touchdown catches this year, Johnson and Stafford look unstoppable. With his combination of size, leaping ability and hands, he’s as dominant a red zone target as exists in the N.F.L. With an ineffective running game, it stands to reason that Stafford-to-Johnson might be the Lions’ first, second and third play-calls once they get inside the 10 for the rest of the year.

As productive as Jerry Rice and Randy Moss were at catching touchdowns, both only topped 17 touchdowns once in their careers. Johnson will need more than one touchdown per game the rest of the way to break Moss’s mark; in fact, if he catches two touchdown passes in his next four games, he would still need to average a touchdown per game for the remainder of the season to set the new record. As good as Johnson is, this record requires too many things to go perfectly to give any receiver anything more than a puncher’s chance this early in the season.

Trivia: Only three players in history have caught more than eight touchdown passes over a four-game stretch: Sterling Sharpe (9), Art Powell (10) and Jerry Rice (10).

Patriots setting all kinds of records, on both sides of the ball

New England scored over 30 points in each of the last eight games of the 2010 regular season. And while the offense floundered in memorable fashion against the Jets in New England’s only postseason game last season, the Patriot offense has again topped 30 points in every game in 2011. By doing so, New England became the first team to score over 30 points in 12 straight regular-season games. The 1999-2000 Rams were the previous record holders, with 11 straight. Drop the requirement to 30 or more points, and those Rams teams are the record-holders with 14 straight games. For now.

How good has New England’s offense been? The Patriots are the first team in league history to gain over 2,000 yards in the opening four games. The only offense that might be able to match New England’s? Whatever offense is on the other sideline. The Patriots are the first team in league history to allow over 1,900 yards to opponents in the first four games. Tom Brady has thrown for 1,553 yards on 163 passes so far. Pretty good, but Chad Henne, Philip Rivers, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jason Campbell threw for 1,475 yards on 168 passes against the Patriots’ defense. Bill Belichick probably gets treated for whiplash after every practice.

Meanwhile, the Patriots return to Foxborough for the next three weeks. Things have been good there for New England, at least in the regular season. The win over the Chargers in Week 2 of this season was New England’s 18th straight home victory during the regular season. From 1971 to 1974, the Miami Dolphins won 27 straight regular-season home games, so the Patriots can’t break that record this season. But Tom Brady already owns the record for consecutive home victories as a quarterback. Brady has won an incredible 29 straight at home. His last home loss? In 2006, against the Jets. This week, the Patriots host the Jets, with both home streaks on the line. In the Patriots’ last 42 home games, New England is 4-3 against the Jets and 32-3 against the rest of the league.

Chase Stuart contributes to the Pro-Football-Reference.com blog and to Footballguys.com.

2011 New England Patriots Preview

We’re always hearing about The Patriot Way. By now, we understand what it means. The Patriot Way is the embodiment of every cliché known in sports: no “I” in team; let your play do the talking; one step at a time; just trying to get better, doing whatever it takes to win. It’s pretty straightforward stuff that trickles down from the owner Robert Kraft to Coach Bill Belichick to everyone else.

Belichick’s Patriots are so business-oriented that they themselves rarely even talk about The Patriot Way. The phrase is mainly the outside world’s way of explaining the culture of this very successful organization.

When we see the Patriots take a flier on baggage-toting stars like Albert Haynesworth and Chad Ochocinco, we cite The Patriot Way. When this team dumped another one of those stars in the middle of last season and instantly remodeled much of its offense, we marveled at its league-best 14-2 record and again credited The Patriot Way. When classic underdog players – your Wes Welkers, your Danny Woodheads – become stars in New England, or when single drafts produce legions of core players overnight (like the ’10 class: Devin McCourty, Brandon Spikes, Jermaine Cunningham, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski – starters all) we just shake our head and continue to laud The Patriot Way.

But focusing on The Patriot Way is like classifying a car by its color. Sure, it counts for something. And it’s nice that everyone can see and understand it. But it’s not the make or model. Locker room chemistry and teamwork and all those convenient Disney movie elements are great, but in the end, football is about the battle that takes place on that 100×53 piece of turf. And those battles often don’t come down to “wanting it more” or “overcoming adversity” – they come down to out-scheming and out-executing the enemy.

To the Patriots, this is The Real Patriot Way. Here’s how it works:

Offense

Unlike with most teams, the Patriot offense is built primarily on principles, rather than players. But the paradox is it’s only built this way because of one particular player. You can probably guess who.

Most N.F.L. offenses build a majority of their systems off their personnel. But having Tom Brady under center gives New England the enormous luxury of reversing that formula. Because Brady is Mensa quality when it comes to dissecting a defense at the line of scrimmage, and because he has arguably the best pocket mechanics in  football, the Patriots are able to first create a system and then find the players to run it. This is why they’re so good at surviving injuries, incorporating newcomers and, most overlooked, grooming young talent.

More on Brady’s specific impact momentarily. First, let’s examine what, exactly, is New England’s system. In short, it’s a precision-passing game based on horizontal option routes. Most offenses build their passing attack on timing and stretching the field. The Patriots – especially in this post-Randy Moss era – are the opposite. The patterns their receivers run are often determined by what the defense shows. It’s up to the receiver to correctly assess the coverage – often on the fly – and execute accordingly. Because of this, the Patriots don’t look for size and speed at wide receiver; they look for intelligence and precise route running. Thus, wideouts like Wes Welker, Julian Edelman and Deion Branch – guys who possess very average natural ability but have outstanding fundamentals – become stars in this system. (It’s no accident that Welker and Branch were far less effective players for the Dolphins and Seahawks.)

This is why the Patriots don’t have to worry about newcomer Chad Ochocinco being 33 and slowing down. Physically, Ochocinco still executes the breaks in his routes with superb quickness. He doesn’t have to stretch the field or win a jump ball on every down (the Pats can turn to to third-year pro Brandon Tate for those infrequent assignments); he just has to take what the defense allows him. Ocho drew criticism for not always running the right routes in Cincinnati. But the Bengals had a rudimentary system that afforded little to no freedom for their frequently double-teamed receivers. That won’t be the case here.

The approach is similar for New England’s sensational second-year tight ends, Rob Gronkowski (an improving route runner and firm blocker) and Aaron Hernandez. Hernandez is a tight end with true wide receiver skills. That’s nightmarish for defensive coordinators, who must always ask themselves, ‘With Hernandez on the field, do I use my base personnel and risk having him run routes against my safety or linebacker, or do I go to nickel and risk the Patriots putting two tight ends on the line of scrimmage and ramming the ball down our throats?’

New England’s style of option route running is uncommon because it requires the quarterback to see the route develop and react, rather than anticipate and throw to a window. Thus, the quarterback is forced to hold the ball a split second longer. Not many can survive this pressure. Tom Brady, however, has an uncanny ability to instantaneously reset his feet and gather his throwing mechanics while in a crowd. And you almost never see him throw off balance. These rare attributes form the foundation of New England’s passing attack.

They also deflate the theory that Brady lacks toughness. True, Brady gets a bit jittery after an accumulation of hits, but that’s only because he’s a.) human and b.) concerned with protecting possession. When your passing attack specifically emphasizes your being able to throw the ball right before taking a hit, you naturally become more aware of potential hits.

A slower-developing, horizontal aerial attack also demands a little more from the pass protectors. The Patriots acknowledged this when they drafted Nate Solder in the first round. This was a response to 33-year-old Matt Light no longer being a sure thing when it comes to handling elite edge-rushers one-on-one. If the lockout hadn’t prevented Solder from practicing, he’d most likely be starting opposite right tackle Sebastian Vollmer (a solid but unspectacular third-year pro – flawed second-team All-Pro accolades aside). Instead, Light – who, to be clear, has great chemistry with Brady and can certainly be more than adequate for one more year – is back.

So is All-Pro left guard Logan Mankins, fresh long-term contract and all (finally!). Mankins, who will line up next to rock-steady center Dan Koppen and smart but middling right guard Dan Connolly, is the key to New England’s power run game. No guard in football pulls with such consistent force.

Brady-centric as this offense might be, the Patriots are still willing to attack opponents on the ground. In BenJarvus Green-Ellis the Pats have a traditional runner who will gain whatever yardage the play has to offer. He’s not a creator, but the Pats don’t need him to be. That’s what Danny Woodhead is for. If not for having the physical appearance of a busboy, Woodhead’s name would come up in a lot of top 10 running back discussions. Truly. He has incredible lateral agility and quickness, and he’s marvelous in all phases of the passing game.

Despite Woodhead’s emergence and having a 36-year-old surgically repaired right knee, Kevin Faulk recently received a one-year contract for the veteran minimum ($910,000). His role in 2011 may simply be to tutor second-round rookie Shane Vereen and third-rounder Stevan Ridley. Vereen is an all-purpose back from California; Ridley is a workhorse out of L.S.U. If having five quality backs weren’t enough, the Patriots also have veteran Sammy Morris on the roster.

Defense

Everybody wants to know if the 2011 Patriots defense will be a 3-4 or a 4-3. The answer is it will be neither and both. It’s understandable that people would want to pigeonhole this defense and find a crystal clear image of the depth chart and gameplan. But the reason Bill Belichick has a reputation for directing versatile, ever-changing units is because he does not view defense in broad strokes of black and white.

Instead of seeing one defensive unit on the field, Belichick sees 11 defensive pieces. His mantra is to find the best role for each of those pieces on each play. While most coaches emphasize exotic blitzes and creative disguise, Belichick is more inclined to preach simple fundamentals and assignments. Often, the Patriots run a surprisingly basic defense, but they create complexity by mixing basic concepts. There are 11 guys executing assignments on each play. Some of those assignments might be 3-4-centric, while some could be 4-3-centric. Collectively, it doesn’t matter. All that matters to Belichick is that each guy is executing his specific assignment. When that happens, the defense naturally works.

The droves of Albert Haynesworth watchers can assume that Belichick will have the star defensive lineman often playing the one-gap concepts he grew to love in Tennessee’s 4-3. Belichick knows that’s the best way to use his Haynesworth piece. Nose tackle Vince Wilfork will likely play a majority of 3-4 technique simply because, being an explosive 350-plus-pounder, he’s going to command double-teams anyway. Along the rest of the defensive line, ex-Jet Shaun Ellis is experienced in all systems and plays with great power in the trenches. He should be more effective late in the season than he was a year ago now that his sharing the load with jack-of-all-trades Mike Wright. Rounding out the front, backups Kyle Love and Gerard Warren are spacious players who provide sound depth.

New England’s defensive alignments will usually be determined by whatever gives them the best pass-rush. Defensive end Andre Carter can turn the corner coming out of a two-or three-point stance. Speed-wise, he’s an upgrade over Tully Banta-Cain, but the Pats will need another edge player to step up. Jermaine Cunningham showed gradual improvement as a second-round rookie last season, but he’s more of a strongside 3-4 outside linebacker than true edge-rusher. Mark Anderson has startling speed around the corner but can’t seem to stay on anyone’s roster. Eric Moore is just a guy.

Linebackers Rob Ninkovich, Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes and Gary Guyton are all better read-and-react players than attackers. Of the bunch, Mayo is the star. He’s the NFL’s reigning tackle leader and, thanks to good instincts and anticipation, plays with excellent range against both run and pass. Spikes, an intriguing second-year pro, can be a good interior thumper, but in the short-term he’ll likely take a backseat to the speedier Guyton in nickel packages.

New England’s mixture of defensive techniques is most prevalent in the secondary. Belichick loves matchup zone concepts that require players to use man-techniques in defending an area. It’s not easy, which is part of the reason the Patriots have had a revolving door at the right cornerback position. They’re hoping that a healthy Leigh Bodden can stabilize this spot. They learned last season that Kyle Arrington lacks the necessary ball skills to survive in this role. Before that, similar conclusions had already been made about Darius Butler and Jonathan Wilhite.

No such worries on the left side. Devin McCourty is coming off one of the great rookie seasons for a cornerback. The lanky 5-11, 193-pounder from Rutgers has an almost eerie ability to backpedal with receivers screaming down the field. Also, he’s shrewder than most tenured veterans when it comes to using the sideline to his advantage. And by recording seven of New England’s league-high 25 interceptions last season, McCourty obviously has phenomenal ball skills.

There’s potentially a stellar long-term cornerbacking tandem in place with McCourty and this year’s 33rd overall pick, Ras-I Dowling. But if Bodden holds up outside, Dowling may not see much action if the coaches decide they can’t resist the physicality that safety Patrick Chung brings to the nickel slot. Chung, however, can be attacked in man coverage. He will line up at strong safety ahead of steady but mundane veteran James Sanders in base packages. (Sanders will assume the safety duties in nickel and dime.) At free safety will be dynamic playmaker Brandon Meriweather, assuming he doesn’t again drive coaches nuts with mental gaffes and freelancing.

Special Teams

Stephen Gostkowski was a top-five kicker before tearing his right quad last season. The sixth-year pro is back to kicking without reservations. Zoltan Mesko will be entrusted with the punting duties again. Wes Welker or Julian Edelman (or whoever can be counted on to make a fair catch, as Belichick’s goal with special teams is usually  just to break even) will field punts. Brandon Tate brings explosiveness to the kick return game.

Bottom Line

The system is outstanding. The talent stocking it is equally impressive. It’s just a matter of whether the Patriots can do something they surprisingly haven’t done well in recent years: hold serve in big games.

Predicted Finish: 1st A.F.C. East