After 4 Weeks, the 2011 Top Fantasy Football Experts

The New York Times has a reputation for having an intellectually advanced readership. Who would have thought, though, that this high I.Q. would also apply to fantasy football predictions? The readers of this blog happen to be sitting atop our Start/Sit Accuracy Challenge, which tracks how accurate several communities are at making our most difficult “Who should I start?” decisions. Congratulations on the strong showing thus far.

Well, now that I’ve buttered you all up, I’ll share the less flattering news. The overall “win rate” for the Fifth Down readers was 56 percent. That’s enough to earn a nice profit as a sports bettor, but clearly not the type of score you would want to pump your fist over. The average win rate for all the entries we tracked was just a fraction over 50 percent. Yep, no better than everyone’s favorite decision-maker, the almighty coin flip.

It’s worth noting that a few experts are having an easier time with this exercise, including your in-house experts, the Sablich Brothers. They’re currently the fourth-ranked expert out of the 59 that we track for this challenge, with a score in the mid 60s.

Our Start/Sit Challenge provides a fun format for individuals, experts and communities to see how they stack up against the experts. It also provides a taste of what we do in our main Accuracy Competition. While the Start/Sit Challenge asks 10 tough questions a week (so 40 questions so far), our “main event” rates each expert’s weekly player rankings by analyzing thousands of simulated start/sit decisions. In fact, we scored over one million predictions last year.

So, for the first four weeks this season, which experts provided the most accurate advice? Here are the top 10 overall experts through Week 4 (out of 60 experts):

You can view how every expert ranks through the accuracy leader board on FantasyPros.

I’ll add just a few brief observations from our findings:

Our next update on the Fifth Down will come around the middle of the season. Until then we hope you’ll stop by to try out one of our free decision-making tools. I’m confident they’ll provide significantly better advice than the almighty coin flip.

Oh, and good luck with holding your lead in our Start/Sit Challenge.

David Kim is the co-founder of FantasyPros, which provides fantasy football accuracy ratings and consensus expert advice. You can follow FantasyPros on Twitter.

UCLA basketball: Dominic Artis decommits but might yet be a Bruin

What was shaping up as one of the nation's top recruiting classes took a hit when Dominic Artis, a highly touted point guard from Henderson (Nev.) Findlay Prep, withdrew his commitment to UCLA and reopened his recruitment, according to his mother, Tamera Davis.

"He still loves UCLA and I would say really they're still his favorites," Davis said. "He just wanted to make sure he was making the right decision and take a step back for a minute."

The Bruins still have commitments from Kyle Anderson, a 6-foot-8 standout from Jersey City (N.J.) St. Anthony who can also play point guard, and shooting guard Jordan Adams of Mouth of Wilson (Va.) Oak Hill Academy. They are also still in the hunt for Shabazz Muhammad, the Las Vegas Bishop Gorman star who is the consensus top prep player in the Class of 2012, and big man Tony Parker.

Davis said the recent commitment of Anderson did not influence her son's change of heart. She also said Bruins coaches continued to pursue her son, who was also interested in California and Oregon, among other schools. UCLA coaches cannot comment on recruits until they sign letters of intent.

Davis said she hoped her son would make his college choice during the early signing period that starts next month.

"We would like to not take a while to decide," Davis said, "but you obviously don't want to rush into anything else."

-- Ben Bolch

President Obama honors 1985 Chicago Bears

The 1985 Chicago Bears were honored by President Obama at the White House on Friday, a quarter of a century after they won the Super Bowl.

Just two days after they beat the New England Patriots, 46-10, their planned White House reception was thwarted by the explosion of the space shuttle Challenger, which killed the entire crew.

On Friday, they finally received their presidential welcome -- it was from Obama instead of Ronald Reagan.

"This is as much fun as I will have as president of the United States," Obama said to the 100 players, coaches and staff who were brought to Washington via a chartered plane.

Then-Bears Coach Mike Ditka was in attendance. In 2004, he turned down Republican pleas for him to run against Obama for the Senate.

Good thing, Obama joked, "I would have been terrible on ESPN."

Buddy Ryan, Jim McMahon, Richard Dent and Willie Gault also made the trip, but some of the team's iconic players were absent.

Star running back Walter Payton died of cancer in 1999. Free safety Dave Duerson shot himself this year after struggling with a brain disease linked to traumatic hits to the head. William "Refrigerator"' Perry, who suffers from an immune disorder, was unable to attend.

In memory of the team, here's a video of their "Super Bowl shuffle," a dance the Bears recorded before they won football's ultimate crown.

At the time, they received criticism for being presumptuous. In retrospect, perhaps their timing was just right.

MORE:

Is the Silver and Black back?

NFL coaches shy away from trick plays

Rose Bowl keeps on improving while other stadiums decline

-- Melissa Rohlin

Photo: The 1985 Chicago Bears are honored by President Obama. Credit: Michael Reynolds / EPA

Dinara Safina has retired, her brother says

Former top-ranked tennis player Dinara Safina has retired, her brother, Marat Safin, told Russian sports agency R-Sport on Friday.

Safina, who turned pro in 2001, has won 12 titles on the WTA Tour and brought home silver at the Beijing Olympics in 2008. She spent 26 weeks at the top of the rankings, beginning in April 2009.

Safina, 25, took an indefinite break from the sport in May after injuring her back early last year. At the time, she said she didn't want to "torture myself and my body any longer."

Her brother said her future plans are unknown.

“An athlete has lived with sports for 20 years," he said. "Now she needs a year to pull herself together, then she will decide."

MORE:

Serena Williams says her emotions took over during tirade

Serena Williams fined $2,000 for verbal outburst at U.S. Open

-- Melissa Rohlin

Photo: Dinara Safina. Credit: Lynne Sladky / Associated Press

Chris Dufresne answers reader questions about Michigan, college football [video]

Every week, CineSport's Noah Coslov empties out the L.A. Times mailbag with Times college football columnist Chris Dufresne. This week they talk MLB and Michigan football.

 

 

Rhoden: Are You Ready for Some Change?

ESPN made the right decision to let go of Hank Williams Jr., but have they learned their lesson? William C. Rhoden on what ESPN should do next after the Williams controversy.

Eagles Are a Dream Team That Makes Fans Scream

A sense of dread is creeping over Philadelphia. It is flowing through the streets, covering all of the dried-up previous layers of dread.

This year’s dread is different. In the past, the Eagles have been failures, teases, doomed underdogs, strife-racked self-destructors and punchy palookas. But they have never been a laughingstock. They have never called attention to themselves so demandingly, only to pratfall so comically. The Eagles are 1-3, and they are so tragically flawed, so bumbling and inept at football basics, that they are easy prey for those who choose to mock the latest so-called Dream Team.

Philadelphia does disappointment and frustration well. It has no stomach for comeuppance.

The Dream Team label was applied by the backup quarterback Vince Young, his lone contribution to the Eagles so far. The Eagles have twice needed a backup quarterback to replace Michael Vick at the ends of games, but Young strained a hamstring in the preseason and vanished, leaving Mike Kafka to close out losses to the Falcons and the Giants. It only took two weeks to turn Kafkaesque into a sports cliché; the Eagles are so embarrassing that they even wear out literary references.

The Eagles’ problems started long before Young arrived this summer with his foot in his mouth. Andy Reid promoted the offensive line coach Juan Castillo to defensive coordinator before the lockout. Castillo’s previous experience on the defensive side of the ball had been at Kingsville High School in Texas, from 1986 to 1989.

Promoting Castillo was one of those decisions that was so inexplicable that it had to make hidden sense, like using a goose as a watchdog. Perhaps Castillo had a latent knack for defense that lay dormant for 21 years. Or maybe he was the perfect push-button coordinator to call vanilla schemes and let newcomers like Nnamdi Asomugha and Jason Babin do the things that made them All-Pros.

Unfortunately, Castillo had ideas. He and the new defensive line coach Jim Washburn installed a new Wide-9 defensive front, with splits between defenders so expansive that a Ford Excursion can drive through them, though Michael Turner or Frank Gore will do if you want to save gas. The scheme itself would be sound if the Eagles’ linebackers could shed blocks, but Casey Matthews, Brian Rolle, Moise Fokou and Jamar Chaney (two rookies, two former seventh-round picks) could seemingly get stopped by a garden gate with no latch. The Eagles have allowed 18 runs of 10 or more yards and give up 5.6 yards per carry, a number kept artificially low by the fact that running backs stop upon reaching the end zone.

As for Asomugha, one of the best man-to-man pass defenders of his generation, he can often be seen playing zone, watching receivers race past and wondering where, if not who, his safeties are.

Superstars like Asomugha were acquired to cover the gaping holes in the foundation of the Eagles’ roster. Unfortunately, the holes have swallowed the superstars. Reid has relied on too many rookies at key positions. Matthews has proven to be the Zeppo of the proud Matthews family. The first-round pick Danny Watkins admitted that he was “overwhelmed” by the N.F.L. experience and lost his preseason starting job at guard; the void was not really filled, Vick is just expected to sidestep it.

The sixth-round pick Jason Kelce won the starting center job, though he ran virtually unopposed. Kicker Alex Henery got into the disappointment act by missing two easy field goals against the 49ers.

Even the reliance on rookies at so many important up-the-middle positions cannot explain the lapses in fundamentals, judgment and sanity by the Eagles’ highly touted acquisitions. Receiver Steve Smith’s lone contribution so far has been a tipped pass that resulted in an interception, a play he perfected as a member of the Giants last season. Running back Ronnie Brown tried to throw a pass with three 49ers defenders draped over him at the goal line last week. Babin’s seven sacks are partially offset by his six penalties, though in fairness, Babin’s penalties are frequently declined because the offense gained so many yards after he jumped offside.

Incumbent Eagles have fared better, but only running back LeSean McCoy (446 total yards, 6 touchdowns) is completely blameless thus far. Reid rewarded him with nine carries last week.

Vick, of course, mixes many big plays into all of the chaos: he has completed 17 passes of 20 or more yards despite having to dodge an unblocked defender on nearly every play. His heroics have kept the team in games while adding to the impression that Eagles football is a chaotic hybrid of a playground pick-up game, a roller derby and Black Friday morning at a Wal-mart. The Eagles are honors students who did not study and are trying to wing the test. They are just brilliant enough for stylish failure.

The Eagles are trying to bounce back from their disastrous start. “The Dream Team thing is over,” Vick said Wednesday, a tacit admission that perhaps the team bought into it in the first place. Watkins is back in the starting lineup, though he did not so much rise to the role as watch it fall to him. Reid and Castillo have adopted linebacker juggling as a hobby. The game Sunday against the Buffalo Bills, marked as an easy win in August, is being called a desperation game.

Eagles fans, meanwhile, are calling for Reid to be fired, but because they started doing that in earnest in about 2005 it has lost its value even as a therapeutic mantra. Fans treated the whole Dream Team concept with icy distrust in the first place. Free-agent spending sprees? That is what the Redskins do. Preseason crowing? That is for the Cowboys. The Eagles are supposed to sit tight through the off-season, enter the year with the same coaches running the same systems, cross their fingers and win through a mix of perseverance, heady play and luck. Like the Giants.

When they do not do that, the dreadful feelings return.

And the Phillies are not helping.

Reggie Jackson discusses his three-homer game in the World Series

CineSport's Noah Coslov recently sat down with Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson to talk about his famous (or infamous if you are a Dodger fan) three-homer game in the 1977 World Series.

Jackson hit consecutive homers off of Burt Hooton, Elias Sosa and Charlie Hough in Game 6 to lead the Yankees to the victory and the World Series title.

 

 

 

Bill Plaschke: Detroit Tigers, put a cork in the party

One of baseball’s strangest traditions was on display again Thursday night, and excuse me if I’m not all bubbly about it.

On the field, the Detroit Tigers did what tough baseball teams do, defeating the New York Yankees, 3-2, in a deciding Game 5 to win the American League Division Series at Yankee Stadium.

Off the field, the Detroit Tigers then did what all silly baseball teams do, celebrating the series victory with a raucous, over-the-top champagne party that was far greater than the entirety of their achievement.
Three wins. They were throwing a New Year’s Eve party for three wins. Think about that.

They were spraying each other over wins that could have occurred over the course of a long summer weekend. They were pouring it on each other for wins that totaled less than 12 hours.

The Detroit Tigers just played three good games, yet felt it necessary to celebrate with countless cases of liquor and cigars, and it just makes no sense.

It isn’t just the Tigers who do this, of course, it’s every baseball team after every postseason series win, the constantly popping corks adding to baseball’s reputation as a big fraternity house while diminishing the parties that really matter.

A champagne celebration after qualifying for the postseason? Absolutely. It’s a triumphant end to a six-month marathon and is worthy of a date with goggles and plastic.

A champagne celebration after winning the World Series? Indeed, you are champions of the world, you should act like it.

But champagne celebrations after winning the division series and league championship series? Why? Such parties smack of an excuse for locker-room high jinks by big kids with too much time on their hands, and baseball is the only sport that tolerates it.

When NBA teams win early playoff rounds, they don’t celebrate with anything more than a handshake and a hug. Only the NBA champions will actually break out champagne and cigars, and when they do, it’s memorable and meaningful, as anyone who remembers the puffing and weeping Chicago Bulls will attest.

When NFL teams win early playoff rounds, they may linger a bit longer in the locker room, but nobody parties until they win the Super Bowl, and then they are often so weary, the bash feels more like a giant relieved embrace between those who have been bashed.

This perspective is shared by the NHL, which actually has the best celebrations of all sports, with the players simply lining up and shaking each other’s hands after every series like youth soccer players on a Saturday afternoon at the Rose Bowl. And, no, there is no champagne until one team can pour it in the Stanley Cup.

So what makes baseball different? The regular season is longer and more strenuous than other regular seasons, but what explains the nuttiness of the postseason parties?

The understated Mike Scioscia once told me that he didn’t mind when his Angels partied after every series because they had worked so long and hard to earn those parties. He noted that baseball was such an unforgiving sport, the players need to find joy whenever they can.

I get that, but do they need to do it by consistently turning the clubhouse into a Friday night kegger? Seriously, how strange and unsettling is it to see a wild-card team dousing itself in champagne after making the playoffs on the final day of the season ... and then doing it again a week later after winning the division series ... and then again a week later after advancing to the World Series?

By the time a baseball team wins a world championship, it will have thrown itself four champagne bashes in a span of about six weeks.  The true postseason MVP is no longer Mr. October, but Mr. Moet.

ALSO:

Jorge Posada gets emotional after Yankees loss

Matt Kemp: Bill Plaschke, T.J. Simers discuss paying the price

Plaschke-Simers video: Should Clayton Kershaw win the Cy Young award?

-- Bill Plaschke

Photo: Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Doug Fister, right, sprays closing pitcher Jose Valverde with champagne after the team defeated the New York Yankees, 3-2, in Game 5 of the ALDS. Credit: Kathy Willens / Associated Press

Jorge Posada gets emotional after Yankees loss

Jorge Posada teared up during the postgame press conference after Thursday's Game 5 loss to the Detroit Tigers in the ALDS.

It may have been his last game with the Yankees.

Posada, 40, is a pending free agent. He received standing ovations during every plate appearance and, after the Yankees were eliminated, he became emotional when asked about his plans for the future.

“It’s tough," he said. "I really have no words. I’m sorry."

He then teared up and walked away.

"He’s had a tremendous career, and I’m sure he’s going to continue to play, and I don’t know what’s going to happen," Manager Joe Girardi said. "The heart that he showed during this series, that's why Jorgie has been a great player."

Posada, a 24th-round pick by the Yankees in 1990, has won five World Series titles with the team. During his 17 major league seasons, he was a five-time All-Star and hit .273 with 275 homers and 1,065 RBIs.

Posada was one of the three remaining members of the Yankees famed "Core Four" on the roster. (Andy Pettitte retired after last season.) The other two, Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera, each reached career milestones this season.

With the influx of young catchers, the Yankees moved Posada from catcher to a DH role this spring training.

As DH during the ALDS, Posada started all five games and went 6 for 14 for a .429 average.

MORE:

Dodgers' argument fails to move bankruptcy judge

Former All-Star Robin Ventura named White Sox manager

-- Melissa Rohlin

Photo: Jorge Posada. Credit: Mike Segar / Reuters

Week 5 N.F.L. Matchups: Another Turning Point

Packers (4-0) at Falcons (2-2)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Line: Packers by 6.
Tramon Williams’s end-of-half interception return for the Packers against the Falcons in last year’s playoffs may be remembered as a turning point in N.F.L. history. The Falcons were the better team entering the game, and while the Packers held a 21-14 lead before the play, the Falcons were driving and appeared likely to score. Williams’s interception turned the game into a rout, and the Packers have been unbeatable ever since, while the Falcons have replaced them as the team with a young quarterback and lots of talent that cannot quite get its act together.
Of course, for some that turning point arrived a little late. “I’m really surprised that it kind of took him so long,” Brett Favre said of the three interminable years it took Aaron Rodgers to lead the Packers to the Super Bowl. Who knew that through all of those quasi-retirements, through his stints with the Jets and the Vikings, Favre was just impatiently waiting for Rodgers to close the deal? Favre did not sound as if  he was trying to insult Rodgers — he has simply lost the ability to compliment people who are not him — but teammates and analysts have rushed to Rodgers’s defense, which he does not really need.
It had been peaceful months since the last self-serving Favre rant. What took him so long? Pick: Packers

Saints (3-1) at Panthers (1-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Saints by 6.5.
The proper transitional form between terrible and great for an N.F.L. team is not “average,” but “interesting.” Average teams get stuck at average, or worse, get stuck in the N.F.C. West. Interesting teams, with great strengths but fascinating flaws, are usually on the fast track up or down. The Panthers are going up; the road down goes straight through Philadelphia.
The Panthers are interesting because Cam Newton has settled into his role as the league’s hottest prospect. His developing skills in the pocket make him more than just a scrambles-and-bombs playground passer, though the scrambles and bombs remain frequent and fun. Steve Smith has been rejuvenated by Newton’s presence and is averaging 22.1 yards per catch. The supporting cast — running backs Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, tight ends Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey — is deep and multi-talented. Defensively, the Panthers do not have much, but that keeps things entertaining.
The Saints are always interesting, except when they play the Jaguars, who bring the bland with them. The Panthers are no match for the Saints just yet, but they are now game for a 34-29 or 40-33 final score, which is the next best thing to winning after a year of watching Jimmy Clausen throw two-yard passes to Tony Fiammetta. Pick: Saints

Raiders (2-2) at Texans (3-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Texans by 6.
Raiders Coach Hue Jackson guaranteed this week that the Raiders would win the A.F.C. West. Boy, Joe Namath starts chirping, and suddenly everyone wants to be just like him. Jackson based his reasoning on the following facts: 1.) the Raiders are pretty good; 2.) the Broncos are committed to starting Kyle Orton until this entire generation of fans is too old to remember that they drafted Tim Tebow; 3.) the Chiefs cannot beat the Vikings by 5 points without their coach and quarterback nearly coming to blows on the sideline, and 4.) the Chargers’ 330-pound nose tackle Antonio Galay drives a Hello Kitty Smart Car, removing him as a potential threat.
The Texans have made no guarantees, despite the fact that they are lingering in the national spotlight longer than usual and have a Colts-free path to the A.F.C. South title. The Texans got some good news when they learned wide receiver Andre Johnson will miss a maximum of three games with a right hamstring injury that looked far worse when he crumpled to the ground, untouched, against the Steelers last week. Even better news for the Texans: they now have enough talent in other areas to survive three games without Johnson. Pick: Texans

Titans (3-1) at Steelers (2-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Steelers by 3.
Matt Hasselbeck is the new definition of cool. Who wants to be young, strapping and handsome like Jake Locker when you can look, sound and exhibit the overall athleticism of the front man of a Buffalo Springfield tribute band? Hasselbeck is the mentor quarterback general managers dream of when they venture onto the free-agent market in search of some rickety former starter who can impart Crash Davis wisdom to the first-round pick: a sage who still has his stuff, a drama-free knuckleballer who still gets some tough outs.
Let’s hope we have a few more weeks to enjoy Hasselbeck before he is injured by the shock waves emanating from the coin toss, or worse, by an opponent. The Steelers are smarting from their loss to the Texans, and they are not known for internalizing their frustration. They also have a habit of body-slamming Titans quarterbacks to the turf (see Vince Young in last season’s game). Linebacker James Harrison is out with an eye injury, but the Steelers still have plenty of pass rush power and pent-up frustration. Get warmed up, Locker. Just in case. Pick: Steelers

Jets (2-2) at Patriots (3-1)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Patriots by 9.
This short, buried, understated game capsule is our way of modulating the volume level on our national discourse. Think of it as a “Sounds of the Ocean” generator with a noise-cancelling function that makes all of the trash talk and bluster surrounding this game sound like the distant lapping of waves against a forgotten fishing pier. Are you serene yet? Good. No, that is not Antonio Cromartie, Plaxico Burress or Santonio Holmes you hear trying to bait the Patriots with senseless trash talk. It is three far-off seagulls cawing over a crushed oyster shell. Pick: Patriots

Eagles (1-3) at Bills (3-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Eagles by 2.5.
Las Vegas likes to bill itself as the wildest place on Earth, but it is really an old-fashioned, conservative town that still reveres the Rat Pack, the 20-ounce steak, and traditional powerhouse teams facing long-time doormats. That explains the Eagles as road favorites: it is an idea as current as a Fremont Street piano bar set list. Perhaps our friends in Vegas know that the Bills are starting a rookie left tackle (Chris Hairston, in place of injured Demetrius Bell) and that the Eagles, despite the panic that has set in during their three-game losing streak, have an overwhelming talent advantage and some easy-to-fix flaws. More likely, the gambling line is catering to those in the buffet line who think the Eagles are “due.” The Eagles are indeed due for something, though no one is sure quite what. Pick: Eagles

Chiefs (1-3) at Colts (0-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Colts by 2.5.
How to win football games, the Chiefs way. Step 1: Play the Vikings. Step 2: Engage in a coach-versus-quarterback shouting match on the sideline in the middle of the game, because Todd Haley is a longtime proponent of the “succeed despite me” school of management. Step 3: Hope Ryan Succop kicks field goals from 51 and 54 yards. Repeat until December. As of this week, Peyton Manning is officially retired from these game previews until he does something more interesting than provide reaction shots from the coaches’ booth. If all he can now do is make uncomfortable-looking faces, he should join the cast of “The Office.” Pick: Colts

Bengals (2-2) at Jaguars (1-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Jaguars by 2.5.
It’s the non-Newtonian edition of the quarterback rookie battle, with Jacksonville’s Blaine Gabbert and Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton battling for second place in our hearts. While Dalton putters through his weeks, launching occasional bombs to his fellow rookie A.J. Green and doing his best to keep things close, Gabbert tries to wrap his impressionable young mind around Jack Del Rio’s pretzel logic. Gabbert threw 24 passes in the first half against the Saints last week, with the star running back Maurice Jones-Drew carrying the ball just three times in a neat inversion of Jaguars philosophy, cosmic balance and common sense. Then, late in the fourth quarter with the Jaguars trailing by 13 points, Del Rio reintroduced the running game, calling four handoffs to Jones-Drew on one drive. Gabbert would call the former Jaguars quarterback David Garrard for advice, but he does not want to get Garrard’s hopes up by making the phone ring. Pick: Bengals

Cardinals (1-3) at Vikings (0-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Vikings by 2.5.
The winning quarterback in this game gets to be the Eagles starter in 2009. Opposing defenses are not the only ones ganging up on Donovan McNabb: old-time quarterbacks have gotten into the act. Joe Theismann said that the Vikings should start Christian Ponder. Fran Tarkenton said the Vikings should start Christian Ponder. Brett Favre thinks Ponder wonders why he has not brought the Vikings a Super Bowl yet. Joe Namath was too busy ripping the Jets to offer an opinion, and Ron Jaworski may have said something, but we still have the seven-second delay button pressed. McNabb is aging so rapidly that by next week he may start criticizing himself. Pick: Cardinals

Seahawks (1-3) at Giants (3-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Giants by 9.5.
The Giants won their last two meetings with the Seahawks by a combined score of 85-13, but the Seahawks have a new weapon: the no-huddle offense. The Seahawks increased their tempo in the second half against the Falcons, scoring three touchdowns in a near-comeback victory. What makes the no-huddle click for the Seahawks? “I guess it takes the thinking out of it for us,” quarterback Tarvaris Jackson told The Seattle Post-Intelligencer. “I know for me, being a young player, I tend to think a little too much.” When your 28-year old, sixth-year quarterback claims that he is young and needs to think less, you have problems that a change of pace are not going to solve. Pick: Giants

Buccaneers (3-1) at 49ers (3-1)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: 49ers by 3.
This is a battle between the league’s two ugly-win champions. The Buccaneers committed 14 penalties on Monday night, had a touchdown and a field goal nullified by penalties, and played the first half as if they had one eye on the Rangers-Rays game. The 49ers played two impressive quarters against the Eagles, but the previous week’s 13-8 slog against the Bengals was much more in character. The 49ers have not yet scored in the first quarter this season, while the Buccaneers have just 3 first-quarter points in their last three games, so it is safe to tune in late. Pick: Buccaneers

Chargers (3-1) at Broncos (1-3)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Chargers by 4.
John Fox finally rolled out the Tim Tebow Wild Horse package last week — for one play. The Broncos lost a yard, and Tebow disappeared again. “We did it once and we lost yardage,” Fox said after the game. “It didn’t prove to be beneficial, so we went in a different direction.” Fox also took a multivitamin before the game, but since he did not feel instantly better, he stopped taking them, right after removing all of the insulation from his home because it did not provide immediate energy savings. Tebow resurfaced on the reality television program “The Biggest Loser,” where he offered this advice: “Hard work beats talent when talent does not work as hard.” Given only one chance per month, though, both hard work and talent are likely to lose a yard. Pick: Chargers

Bears (2-2) at Lions (4-0)
Monday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Lions by 5.5.
This is the week that the Lions finally fake the pass to Calvin Johnson at the goal line, then hand off to Jahvid Best. Best walks untouched into the end zone as 11 defenders (12, if Rob Ryan has any say) claw and drag Johnson to the ground. Then, Ryan and the three other defensive coordinators who allowed two touchdowns per week to Johnson get to call Lovie Smith and say they told him so. Pick: Lions

London 2012 Olympic diary: Stars out for a ball, sponsors ignore public transport and Redgrave reveals son slept through Sydney 2000

Having a ball: Nell McAndrew will be among the guests at the BOA's Olympic ball

The shadow Olympics minister Tessa Jowell has turned her experienced political hand to helping Labour's Ken Livingstone in his bid to oust Conservative Boris Johnson as Mayor of London. That will make for some interesting Olympic board meetings as the Games nears and as the electioneering ratchets up. Both Jowell and Johnson are on the board. Interesting too that one of Livingstone's key men at City Hall when he was in power was Neale Coleman, who was retained by Johnson as his Olympics advisor when he took office.

***

More than 2,100 supporters of next year's Games will attend the British Olympic Association's Olympic ball at Olympia tonight. Will Prince Harry turn up like he did last year? The Princess Royal will be there. Tickets are sold out with Tom Jones, Stephen Fry and Miranda Hart topping the bill. Te red carpet will be awash with star athletes in their most sparkling outfits. Ex Spice Girl Mel C, model Nell McAndrew, musician Katie Melua and world superbike champion James Toseland are also attending.

****

Ticket holders for the London 2012 Games have been assured by Locog chairman Sebastian Coe that they will be able to give tickets to friends and family. Strict security requirements state that ticket holders have to attend the venue even if they have given their ticket to a family member. However, Lord Coe said the rule won't be policed. "We will only ask for identification and trace back the owners of the tickets if we have a very serious security issue or there are particular suspicions about certain seats or tickets," he said.

"Common sense will apply and perhaps if the ticket holders can't be there for some reason, the others in the party should bring some id with them." Locog have confirmed the next tranche of 1.5 million Games tickets for sports apart from football will be released in April. There are still around one million football tickets available, which will go on sale in December.

****

Sir Steve Redgrave recalled yesterday how one family member missed his moment of glory at Sydney 2000. Son Zak, then aged two, was  waving at him from the stands just before the race. But apparently the excitement got the better of him and he fell asleep in the arms of Redgrave's mother Sheila, despite her screaming at the top of her lungs and jumping up and down throughout. "He missed the whole race," said Redgrave.

****

Marble Archski: the Russians will be promoting the Winter Games in Sochi in central London during the 2012 Olympics

Olympic hospitality agents Prestige Ticketing this week unveiled a £7.5 million three-storey glass atrium structure alongside the Olympic stadium for the wining and dining of 3,000 people at a time who have paid up to £4,500 for each ticket. But that pales against the £10 million London Olympic extravaganza unveiled by the Russians at Marble Arch – nicknamed the "Archski". Plans are for an ice skating rink next to a special purpose festival hall for ballet, opera and soirees with Vladimir Putin, all to promote the Sochi Winter Olympics. Westminster Council has received objections that the five-month closure of the island site will cause significant disruption. Locals are also upset that resident parking around the Langham Hotel will be suspended in favour of coach parking for the VIP guests of Olympic sponsor Coca-Cola. Sponsors generally are shying away from using London's public transport, including the acclaimed javelin train from St Pancras to Stratford (which takes just seven minutes) and have booked air conditioned coaches to transport their guests to Olympic competition using the special Olympic lanes.

2-on-1: With Healthy Parise and New Coach, Are the Devils the Devils Again?

In their final conversation previewing the 2011-12 seasons of the local N.H.L. teams, the New York Times hockey writers Jeff Z. Klein and Christopher Botta ponder whether the Devils are ready to return to regular-season dominance.

Botta: Let me confess something, Jeff. I saved the Devils for last because, in seasons of triumph or last season’s freefall, the Devils can make the prognosticators look even sillier than usual. Is there a chance Peter DeBoer gets the Devils back to being the Devils again?

Klein: It’s true, Chris, the Devils have been the model of consistency for so many years (or at least the second model of consistency, after the Red Wings). But it seems to be coming apart now, and Peter DeBoer doesn’t seem to have the track record at the N.H.L. level to make them “the Devils” again. As the former Panthers coach, it feels like he may be more John MacLean than Jacques Lemaire.

Botta: I like DeBoer as a coach and enjoy speaking with him. I’m not going to hold his Panthers experience against him. He never had the players. The book is not out on him yet.

Speaking of having the horses, I’ve always loved to watch Ilya Kovalchuk play. But it doesn’t feel like he has connected with one linemate, let alone two in his season-plus in New Jersey.

Klein: True that, and especially when he was taken so publicly to the woodshed by MacLean. But what a rally he staged last season when Lemaire came back.

Botta: He was good in the second half, as just about everyone was. Brian Rolston, the new Islander, his numbers were terrific. Looks like Kovalchuk will start on Dainius Zubrus’s line.

Klein: It’s the big question: what happens with the $100 million man this year?

Botta: Lou Lamoriello has always said he won’t negotiate contracts during the season. Although I’d like to think he might make an exception for Zach Parise, do you think the new captain’s uncertain future in New Jersey will have a negative effect on the season?

Klein: Well, I think making Parise captain is the first step toward getting him to sign a long-term contract. As captain, he’s certainly obligated to keep contract matters submerged for the greater good of the team. But in the end, who are we to question the inner musings of Lou?

Botta: Oh, it’s not sacred anymore. He missed the playoffs last year and the Devils haven’t won a Cup since 2003! Mr. Lamoriello can handle it. To his credit, he answers the tough questions put to him.

Which reminds me. I know this question has been asked for years — Lamoriello always likes to point that out to us — but does Martin Brodeur have another 65-game, Vezina Trophy finalist season in him? This lineup needs it.

Klein: Brodeur could certainly have a good season, but a Vezina finalist? No way. He’s definitely on the downswing of his great career. It’s different now than it used to be for him. Age, wear and tear brought about in part by his own refusal to cut down on his workload, and the burden over the last couple of years of having to face more shots than he ever had with the Devils — all of that has took its toll on him. His last two, very shaky playoff performances showed that.

Botta: Maybe I’m a softie, but I have a hard time counting out Brodeur. Yes, his Vezina days may be through, but I still think he’s capable of keeping his goals-against average under 2.30 and leading a team into the playoffs.

I do like their defense more than some of our colleagues, Jeff. They need more out of Anton Volchenkov, who is compensated like a top defenseman, but this is a big, tough and mobile group. O.K, Andy Greene isn’t big, but he should put together a complete season after taking a step back last year. And Adam Larsson…what a treat he’s going to be to watch in this area for a long time.

Klein: Indeed, Larsson is an exciting arrival. But I tell ya, Chris, when the Devils lost Paul Martin to that broken arm and then sent him away, that was the end of a very long line of excellent defensemen in New Jersey that stretched back to Stevens, Niedermayer and Daneyko.

Botta: A new era may begin with Larsson. He’s that good. The Devils are really intriguing to me this season because they need strong production up front from talented but still-raw kids like Josef Josefson, Mattias Tedenby, Adam Henrique and Nick Palmieri. That’s very unDevil-like and could be asking for too much. There’s not a lot of depth in their minor league system.

Klein: You’re right. They have a future. I’m just not sold on them being a top team this season.

Botta: While I take a final few seconds to come up with a prediction, tell me, Jeff: where are the Devils finishing this season in the conference?

Klein: I have them at the same 11th-place finish they managed last year, give or take one spot.

Botta: Man, I’ve gone back and forth on this one a long time. I even texted some friends, analysts on N.H.L. broadcasts without connections to the team. Five out of six of them said the Devils would finish ahead of the Islanders in the standings. I picked the Islanders for 10th in the East. I’m going to respectfully ignore those experts and pick New Jersey for 11th.

Klein: So to sum up, I have the Rangers fifth and you have them sixth. We both have the Islanders finishing in 10th and we both pick the Devils to be one spot below them.

Botta: Part of me hopes we’re wrong, Jeff. The New York area needs a little more buzz around the Stanley Cup playoffs. Eight of 15 teams in the Eastern Conference qualify. At least two out of three teams should not be too much to ask.