Jerry Jones Was Right; Cowboys Should Have Passed

Jason Garrett has received a lot of criticism for his decision to call three straight runs while up, 16-13, with 3 minutes 36 seconds to play in Sunday’s game in New England, perhaps the harshest of which came from his boss. “We rolled the dice at the end and went conservative,” the Cowboys’ owner, Jerry Jones, said, ”and it bit us. You always second-guess whether or not we should have tried to run a little offense down there instead of running it three times.”

Jones is often misguided in his critiques of coaches and players, but this one is spot-on. Garrett’s decision to keep the ball on the ground late in game was the wrong one for several reasons, not the least of which is that running the ball was statistically inferior to passing on each of the Cowboys’ three offensive plays. There is some evidence of this in Advanced NFL Stats’ Win Probability Graph, which showed that the Cowboys’ odds of coming out victorious dropped from 85 percent at the start of the drive to 74 percent within two plays. With only a few minutes to play and the ball in the hands of your offense, an 11 percent dip is rather significant.

Of course, those percentages would be different had the Cowboys executed Garrett’s calls, but was there really optimism to think the offense would do anything but go three-and-out if ordered to run? The Cowboys were averaging just 3.67 yards per carry up until that point, with 17 of their rushing yards coming on a fluky Tony Romo scramble. Only 22.2 percent of their runs went for more than four yards.

Defenders of Garrett might argue that Dallas had held Tom Brady to 6.59 yards per attempt and the Patriots to 13 points through 57-plus minutes, so there was reason to believe they could halt New England if the ground attack stumbled. With 3:36 to play and the Pats having a full arsenal of timeouts, however, the approach should have been more focused on moving the ball in a positive direction rather than running down the clock. A failure to record a first down, as we witnessed, put the Patriots in a situation similar to one in which they may have found themselves had Dallas gone three-and-out using its regular offense.

The obvious drain-the-clock offensive strategy was ineffective, and by the time Brady took the field, New England was equipped with 2:31 and a timeout.  On top of that, the notion that Brady was somehow significantly less likely to move the ball for at least a game-tying field goal simply because the offense sputtered a bit prior to that final drive is magical thinking. No N.F.L. coach should feel safe when Brady’s Patriots are within one score and have possession, especially with over two minutes to play.

The same sort of gambler’s fallacy that may have been the origin of Garrett’s misconceptions about his defense’s chances of thwarting Brady was also probably a major contributor to his late-game play-calling. Garrett seemed to go conservative late because he failed in an ultra-aggressive approach that led to Dallas’s 24-point blown lead against the Lions two weeks ago.

Disregarding the fact that the game situations were drastically different, Garrett needs to improve at not allowing past results to influence present decisions. He shouldn’t shy away from consulting advanced statistics and using them in specific game situations. It’s like regularly hitting on 18 in blackjack. When you consistently disregard the numbers, the house (or home team) always wins.

Jonathan Bales is the founder of DallasCowboysTimes.com, a site dedicated to film study and statistical analysis of the Cowboys.

Week 4 Quick Hits: In Defense of Tony Romo

The Falcons are still searching for an offensive identity. Did Bill Belichick find a defensive identity? And the Bills were reaquainted with a little reality. Here’s a quick look at every game of Week 4:

Lions 34, Cowboys 30

This season Tony Romo has gone from goat to G.O.A.T. back to goat. Not that the Romo haters will care, but two of Romo’s second-half interceptions on Sunday are explainable, perhaps even understandable. The first (to Bobby Carpenter) was simply a bad play. But the second was more about great defense than bad offense. Cornerback Chris Houston – who had trouble much of the afternoon against Laurent Robinson, a talented but injury-prone former second-round pick who looks something like a stretched version of Miles Austin – made an excellent jump on Robinson’s slant route. On the third pick, Romo correctly read no safety help over the top against Jason Witten. Problem was, with Kyle Vanden Bosch and Ndamukong Suh in his face, he underthrew the ball. Good read, poor execution.

The turnovers overshadow the fact that Dallas’s offensive line outplayed Detroit’s outstanding front four most of the afternoon. The Cowboy defense also stymied Matthew Stafford. Detroit’s saving grace on offense was that Calvin Johnson remained the most unguardable receiver in the game.

Bears 34, Panthers 29

Ahh….now that’s nice: A classic Chicago Bears game, as we’ve come to know. Against Carolina, Chicago’s offense was actually its defense and special teams. Defensive back D.J. Moore had a pick-six off a tipped pass (poor decision by Cam Newton to rifle a ball to unreliable Legedu Naanee against tight bracket coverage on the play). Matt Forte’s second-quarter touchdown run was set up by a 73-yard kick return from Devin Hester. The next time Hester touched the ball, he went 69 yards and somersaulted for his record-setting 11th career punt return score.

Jay Cutler finished with just 17 pass attempts, while Forte posted a career-high 205 yards on the ground. Maybe this will get the Panther fans talking about their own team’s run game. The one-two punch of Jonathan Stewart and $21 million man DeAngelo Williams combined for just 18 carries. The duo has combined for 20 carries or fewer in all four games this season, and the Panthers are now 0-3 when their wunderkind quarterback throws for more than 370 yards.

Bengals 23, Bills 20

Maybe the Bills can take solace in being good enough to fall for a trap game. They have experienced weekly trap games the past nine years, but never as the trapee. They have no choice but to shake this one off and move on. Doing so could be tough, particularly for the coaching staff. Buffalo’s coaches are the ones who know just how vulnerable their team is defensively. With a lackluster pass-rush and a struggling secondary (cornerback Leodis McKelvin has been especially shaky filling in for injured Terrence McGee), the Bills are not as good as their .750 record suggests.

As for the Bengals, the rookie wideout A.J. Green was an acrobat downfield Sunday, and Cedric Benson was a bell cow (19 carries, 104 yards). That’s their main formula, and it got them to 2-2.

Titans 31, Browns 13

Those who follow the Titans closely are saying FINALLY! Jared Cook breaks out! The 6-5, 246-pound ex-Gator is perhaps the most athletic young tight end in the A.F.C. But he has struggled to harness his gifts while sorting through the mental demands of playing in the N.F.L. With increased playing time this season, Cook appears to be thinking less and reacting more. We saw this on his 80-yard touchdown catch against the Browns. When Kenny Britt was sidelined, Cook became Tennessee’s best chance at creating mismatches through the air. Look for him to get more split-out opportunities as the season progresses.

Chiefs 22, Vikings 17

At least the Vikings did not blow a hearty halftime lead in this one.  Minnesota is on track for a pair of quarterback controversies: in 2011, Donovan McNabb or Christian Ponder? In 2012, Christian Ponder or Andrew Luck?

Redskins 17, Rams 10

Playing at home against what we’re realizing is a really good Redskins defense, Sam Bradford averaged 3.8 yards per pass attempt while completing less than 50 percent and taking seven sacks. Without having yet watched the film, it’s difficult to say whether this was a product of a great Redskin defense or an awful Ram offense. Like most things, it’s probably a combination of both.

The Rams limp into their bye week with an 0-4 record. It’s possible – in fact, probable – that four weeks from now, they’ll be 0-7. Their next three games are: at Green Bay, at Dallas and home vs. New Orleans. 0-7 might seem catastrophic, but in the N.F.C. West, it’s considered striking position. Six of the Rams’ last nine games are against feeble division opponents.

49ers 24, Eagles 23

You might say not all N.F.C. West teams are feeble;  the 49ers improved to 3-1. Considering the Niners just put together a come-from-behind win on the road against an alleged Dream Team (is it too predictable to call the Eagles a Bad-Dream Team?), all cries about the 49ers’ legitimacy will be received with respect for the next 48 hours. But Niner apologists beware: that’s still Alex Smith you’re vouching for.

As for the Eagles, they can look forward to a week of hyperventilation and  criticism over their fourth-quarter struggles. They’ve been outscored, 36-0, in their current three-game losing streak. In two of the losses, they were moving for a potential game-winning drive late only to have wideout Jeremy Maclin literally drop the ball. Maclin, who has otherwise played well this season, dropped a fourth-down catch with 1:45 remaining against Atlanta and carelessly fumbled with 2:15 left against San Francisco.

Saints 23, Jaguars 10

This from STATS Inc.: “The Saints (on Sunday) became the first team from the N.F.C. South to win in Jacksonville. New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Carolina and Atlanta had been a combined 0-8 in the River City.”

Who knew Jacksonville was called the River City? And who knew it was possible for a team to gain 30 first downs and 503 yards of total offense but manage only 23 points? Good productive day for the Saints. Road wins are always welcomed.

Texans 17, Steelers 10

The Texans opened the game with a 19-play touchdown drive that took 10:55 off the clock. It was the longest drive the league has seen since the Saints went for 10:59 against the Raiders on Oct. 12, 2008.

Houston’s drive was a work of art, with Arian Foster rushing for 45 of his 155 yards and Matt Schaub completing five passes to either a back or a tight end. It wasn’t the first time this season that Pittsburgh’s front seven fell back on its heels in run and short pass defense.

But here’s the thing about long drives: they’re not nearly as productive as explosive plays. When you eat up so much clock, you’re not just limiting your opponents’ possessions – you’re limiting your possessions. This, by nature, helps keep a game close.

That’s partly why the Texans found themselves leaning on their defense to make a stand and win the game late in the fourth quarter after surrendering 10 points in a pair of third-quarter Steeler drives that totaled more than 13 minutes. Fortunately for the Texans, their defense responded. Pass-rushers Connor Barwin, Mario Williams and Antonio Smith were fantastic all afternoon. They sacked Ben Roethlisberger four times and constantly forced him to relocate his pocket. The Texans finished with five team sacks and eight quarterback hits and hounded Big Ben into two interceptions on the final drive (the first was called back by a roughing-the-passer penalty).

Giants 31, Cardinals 27

Every year we get a game that’s defined by a blown call at the end. Sometimes, as with the 2008 Broncos-Chargers game in which Ed Hochuli pre-emptively blew the play dead on a Jay Cutler fumble that he deemed an incomplete pass, it helps lead to rule changes (the N.F.L. became more lenient in continuing action on plays involving fumbles).

What will the reaction be to the erroneous ruling that Victor Cruz gave himself up before setting what should have been a live ball on the turf late in the fourth quarter at Arizona? Normally, a team in Arizona’s position can point to its own many mistakes as the real reason it lost. The game is always bigger than any single play. That remains true in this case – after all, the Cruz play was just one of 135  plays on the afternoon, and it directly provided zero of the Giants’ 31 points. But it could be extra difficult for the Cardinals to admit this given that they outrushed the ground-and-pound Giants, 156 to 54.

Falcons 30, Seahawks 28

We continue to monitor the Falcons’ search for an offensive identity. As stated in previous posts, the Falcons are built to pound the ball. But the huge price they paid for the first-round rookie Julio Jones could persuade them to attack more through the sky. That was the case in Week 3 at Tampa, and it appears to have been the case in Week 4 at Seattle. Jones was targeted 17 times (he had 11 catches). Those targets, however, could have been a reaction to his drastic mismatch against Seattle’s so-so right corner, Brandon Browner. We can’t pinpoint the Falcons’ identity until we get a little more data on them. But it’s looking like change is in the air…

Whether this sort of change would be wise remains debatable.

Packers 49, Broncos 23

Bronco fans, had you not been so rudely clamoring for Tim Tebow right out of the gate, John Fox probably would have given the Almighty Ex-Gator a chance in the fourth quarter. But Fox knew that a change under center, even in garbage time, would be viewed as an indictment of Kyle Orton. Probably not wanting that distraction, he kept Orton on the field and watched him throw his third interception late in the fourth quarter.

Orton wasn’t the culprit for this loss, though. Denver’s defense was…sort of. The D struggled mightily, but given the brilliance of Aaron Rodgers – career highs 408 yards passing and two touchdowns running – criticizing it feels almost like blaming Bryon Russell for Jordan’s final jump shot as a Bull.

Patriots 31, Raiders 19

Bill Belichick’s best feature is his ability to remold his defense in a way that compromises the opponent’s greatest strength. Pinpointing Oakland’s greatest strength isn’t hard. Needing to stop Darren McFadden in order to stop the Raiders, the Patriots opened the game in bear defensive looks, which, in essence, meant five-man defensive lines. Aside from a 40-yard McFadden scamper, the approach worked. The Raiders got just 35 yards out of McFadden’s other 10 carries and had to retrofit their gameplan around Jason Campbell. Campbell threw the ball well but had two costly (and terrible) interceptions, including one directly to Patrick Chung in the end zone.

Chargers 26, Dolphins 16

Typical Chargers game: nice weather, mediocre opponent, solid but not jaw-dropping performance and Dan Fouts calling the action for CBS.

Ravens 34, Jets 17

This game would have made more sense if they’d just let the two defenses line up and fist-fight each other for 60 minutes. The Jets should have major concerns about facing  Vince Wilfork and the Patriots without Nick Mangold next week. The Ravens can be concerned about Joe Flacco if they want, but some simple run-pass balance in the play-calling would go a long ways toward ironing things out.

Andy Benoit is an NFL analyst for CBSSports.com and founder of NFLTouchdown.com. He can be reached at andy.benoit@NFLTouchdown.com or @Andy_Benoit.

Monday Matchup, Redskins at Cowboys

Redskins (2-0) at Cowboys (1-1), 8:30 p.m. Eastern, ESPN
Line: Cowboys by 5

The Redskins have been waiting a long time to deliver a hearty “I told you so,” so they can be forgiven for a little premature self-congratulation over their perfect start. Rex Grossman called Santana Moss, Jabar Gaffney and Anthony Armstrong “the best wide receiving corps in the league,” which must mean he has not had a look at the Patriots, the Jets, the Eagles, the Packers, the Saints or about 20 other N.F.L. teams.

Grossman also called Moss “a quarterback’s best friend,” which means a lot from a quarterback who used to be known as “an opposing cornerback’s retirement fund.”

The Redskins have certainly improved, both on the field and off: their injury reports no longer come with a separate insubordinate section. Still, the current era of good feelings is built upon a 1-point come-from-behind victory against a team that lost 11 games last year (Arizona) and a convincing win against the eight or nine Giants players who were healthy enough to suit up on opening day.

This week, Washington will face a team whose top wide receiver (Miles Austin) is out and whose quarterback (Tony Romo) is trying to battle back from cracked ribs and a punctured lung. The Redskins can give themselves all the props they want if they compile a 3-0 start. The rest of us will reserve judgment. Pick: Redskins

Pick is not based on the spread

Romo Admits It Was His Fault

Sometimes a quarterback points the finger at himself to shield a teammate from criticism. It can be part of leadership.

And sometimes the quarterback is simply telling the truth.

So let’s give the Cowboys’ Tony Romo credit for honesty. He couldn’t be assigned much credit for anything else in the fourth quarter of a loss to the Jets on Sunday.

“Really this game just came down to one or two plays,” Romo said. “Those plays were plays that I gave them the ball.”

First he fumbled on a third-down dive at the Jets’ goal line. Then came what Steve Politi of The Star-Ledger called Romo’s masterpiece of stupidy.

Peter King of Sports Illustrated described the game as a total, absolute, utter debacle for Romo:

With a minute to go and the score tied, only the Lord knows what Romo was looking at. He badly underthrew Dez Bryant, and the interception into the waiting arms of Darrelle Revis led to the winning field goal.

Romo and Bryant could be seen discussing the route after the interception, and it made you think that Romo was expecting Bryant to come back for the ball. But Romo set things straight after the game. And the postgame quotations from the coaches indicated that a zone coverage by the Jets’ secondary, disguised as man-to-man, tripped him up.

From DallasCowboys.com:

Dez Bryant said after the game that he had run his route correctly.

“We wanted to get in a formation and a protection that we felt could block up some of their pressure and give Tony a chance to work the outside the receivers,” Jason Garrett said. “It looked like they went to what we call (cover) 2-man, played up underneath it, and I don’t know if Tony was fooled by it a little bit, but unfortunately we made that turnover and gave them a chance to win the ballgame.”

Jets Coach Rex Ryan said: “Mike Pettine might have had the call of the day. We have this play called ‘Jet Mike Mix’ that we call, and we’d been getting a lot of one-on-one’s on the outside. We wanted them to think it was one-on-one, but we actually had help on top. Revis was able to undercut it and get the interception.”

It might have also been questonable for Romo to focus on Bryant in the first place. Bryant sustained a quad injury earlier in the game on a punt return, and was also hobbled by cramps.

“I cost us the football game tonight,” Romo said. “That’s frustrating. It’s disappointing to work very hard to make sure that you’re put in those positions to win the game, and it’s hard to swallow a game like that. I’ve got to be better. That’s the bottom line.”

Extra point There has always been the feeling that if Romo could eliminate dunderhead plays late in games, he could be considered an elite quarterback (and lead Dallas to a title). Romo fans and Dallas fans have been waiting for that to happen, for experience to kick in. Instead, they keep getting kicked in the teeth. Is there still a chance that Romo can mature into a champion? Or is what you see what you get?