Thursday, October 6, 2011

2-on-1: Are Rangers Stanley Cup Contenders, or Just a Good Hockey Club?

In the second installment of our season preview conversations, New York Times hockey writers Jeff Z. Klein and Christopher Botta discuss talk about the Rangers, whose season opens Friday in Stockholm against the Los Angeles Kings.

Botta: Jeff, are you finding it as difficult as I am to make a prediction about the Rangers’ season when we don’t know the status of Marc Staal, their do-everything, 30-minute defenseman?

Klein: Yes, Chris, I am. And really, given what we already knew about Sidney Crosby and his concussion last February, I can’t believe the Rangers had Staal back in the lineup when he was still symptomatic— and I’m surprised Staal went along with it.

More than that, I still really can’t believe his brother, Eric, saw fit to slaughter Marc when a simple body check would have been just as effective for taking the puck. Talk about a series of actions that show just how much the N.H.L. mind-set has to change.

Botta: It’s scary to think that Marc is still not feeling well as a result of a hit delivered in a game in February, yet he logged big minutes in the Rangers’ run for the playoffs the next two months.

But for this discussion, let’s make the leap that Staal comes back within the first 20 games and maintains good health. Are the Rangers contenders to represent the East in the Stanley Cup finals or merely a very good team capable of winning a round, maybe two?

Klein: I figure with Brad Richards and another year under the belt for Ryan Callahan, Brandon Dubinsky, Dan Girardi, Michael Sauer, Ryan McDonagh, Derek Stepan and the rest of the young veterans, they’ve got to improve. A couple of playoff rounds, sure. But they just don’t look like true Cup material to me.

Botta: I’d have to agree. The one thing we know with the Rangers, however, is they have the resources and desire to make a major deal before the trade deadline if Glen Sather thinks an acquisition will put them over the top. So we cannot rule anything out when it comes to the playoffs, which I’m fairly certain they’ll make.

Who do you think is the best left wing to play on the line with Brad Richards and Marian Gaborik? And do you feel Richards and Gaborik will have any trouble establishing chemistry? In addition to the health of Staal, the success of the Rangers’ season depends on those two big-contract stars.

Klein: Aye, you’ve got that right.

Botta: Let me jump in here and tell the readers that Jeff really does say things like “Aye.”

Klein: I think Richards, one of the best assist men playing the game today, can establish a potent partnership with Gaborik and feed him plenty of goals. Not sure it’s really important who the other winger will be. Sean Avery might’ve been a good fit with his ability to dig the puck out from behind the net and zing it into the slot, but I guess we won’t be seeing that anytime soon.

Botta: No, we won’t. Sean’s departure is a big loss for New York’s hockey writers and the producers of HBO’s “24/7.” Let me ask you this, Jeff: what are the Rangers’ weaknesses?

Klein: One’s obvious, and one’s hidden. The obvious one is they’ve got to limit Henrik Lundqvist to 60 games, maximum, come hell or high water. Every Stanley Cup-winning goalie of the last five years has played about that number, and Lundqvist ought to as well, because he enters every postseason stretched too far. The other, hidden, weakness is Brad Richards’s two-way play: he’s minus-72 for his career.

Botta: Centering Callahan’s line, Artem Anisimov is poised for a breakout season. I guess I’m showing my skepticism here, but do you think Anisimov is consistent enough and ready, at age 23, to be a strong second-line center?

Klein: Depends. There are decent second-line centers, which Anisimov seems destined to be, and then there are really, really good second-line centers, like Vinny Lecavalier, Patrice Bergeron, Patrick Sharp, Henrik Zetterberg, Mike Richards, Ryan Kesler. … I’m not trying to be mean, but that’s one surefire way to tell a real Cup contender from a Cup pretender.

Botta: I can understand what you’re saying. Anisimov had 18 goals and 44 points last season, so a true breakthrough would be something like 25 goals and 60 points. I don’t know if he has the competitiveness, the fire, to produce on that level. Callahan’s staying healthy would help.

I was wondering who you think are the most underrated players on the Rangers.

Klein: Michael Sauer and Ryan McDonagh, the quietly efficient young defensive pair.

Botta: Agree on Sauer. The kid’s come out of nowhere to be a really solid No. 4 defenseman and I feel his positive attitude has been infectious even on the older players. I like McDonagh. He has more upside than Sauer, but I would be concerned about a bit of a step-back year for him, especially with the increased workload while Staal recovers. But I see you put a lot of stock in plus/minus, Jeff.

Klein: Plus-20 and plus-16 for Sauer and McDonagh, respectively, easily the best on the team.

Botta: So what’s the final math? After 82 regular-season games, where will the Rangers finish in the East? This is a collection of athletes that’s easy to like, but I’m not ready to sign on as a true believer. I see them finishing in sixth place in the conference.

Klein: I see them improving from last year’s eighth all the way up to fifth. But I can’t see them reaching the level of Boston, Washington, Tampa Bay or Pittsburgh.

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