Jason and Justin Sablich are here to help you with your fantasy football team. The Sablich brothers will provide fantasy football advice throughout the season on this blog and on Twitter (@5thDownFantasy).
If you submit one of the 50 most accurate responses this week, you can win a prize from FantasyPros.com.
Will the “ground and pound” return this week? Jets Coach Rex Ryan said it would, and after watching the train wreck that was Mark Sanchez and the passing game Sunday night, the Jets might not have much of a choice. This will hopefully ease the growing concerns of the increasingly impatient Shonn Greene owners (us included). He is among our favorable matchup picks for Week 5.
Do you have a “start or sit” question? We are taking questions on Twitter. Follow us at @5thDownFantasy. Also, check out our complete rankings for Week 5.
Favorable/Unfavorable Quarterback Matchups
Favorable
Matt Ryan (ATL) vs. Green Bay – Ryan has delivered at least 20 fantasy points for three consecutive weeks now, despite the lackluster play from his offensive line and the WR1 option Roddy White (league-high six dropped passes). No team is more generous to quarterbacks than the Green Bay Packers, who most recently allowed a struggling Kyle Orton to throw for 273 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Donovan McNabb (MIN) vs. Arizona – It’s not easy recommending a guy who has played as poorly as he has played this season, but those of you who start two quarterbacks or are dealing with a bye week might want to consider him with the visiting Cardinals allowing 24 points a week to the position.
Josh Freeman (TB) vs. San Francisco – Freeman scored his second consecutive rushing touchdown in two games Monday night in what was his best fantasy outing of the season. The 49ers rank as the 10th best matchup for quarterbacks (24 FPPG) and have allowed the third most rushing yards to the position.
Unfavorable
Jay Cutler (CHI) vs. Detroit – Cutler’s embarrassing 5-point fantasy clunker against the Panthers last week has got to make you hesitant about starting him against the Lions and their impressive defensive front. There’s potential to wreak total havoc on Cutler this week against that porous offensive line.
Matt Schaub (HOU) vs. Oakland – The Texans leaned on Arian Foster for most of last week after Andre Johnson went down. Expect a lot more of the same this week under almost identical circumstances.
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) vs. Tennessee – The way his banged-up line has been protecting him lately, it was only a matter of time before Big Ben started showing up on the injury reports. While he is expected to play, you might want to explore better options if you can since his meeting with the Titans isn’t projected to be a friendly one.
Favorable/Unfavorable Running Back Matchups
Favorable
Fred Jackson (BUF) vs. Philadelphia – A hobbled Frank Gore was the latest running back to gash the Eagles’ feeble run defense, which is now third worst with 139 rushing yards allowed per game. Jackson should have a field day.
Chris Johnson (TEN) vs. Pittsburgh – Last year’s top-ranked run defense hasn’t shown up yet this season, allowing two games of at least 150 rushing yards over the first four weeks. They will also be losing the 2008 N.F.L. defensive player of the year, James Harrison, for a number of weeks because of a fractured orbital bone. Johnson has had his fair share of struggles as well, but he did notch his first 100-yard game last week. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come for owners who don’t play in any of our leagues.
Dexter McCluster (KC) vs. Indianapolis – McCluster gets his first real ”plus” matchup this week as the Colts have allowed the eighth most fantasy points to the position, but his season-low 38 total yards and touches (9) against the Vikings in Week 4 keep you from getting too excited. Nonetheless, he is a decent bye-week replacement if you’re hurting to fill active slots in your starting lineup.
Shonn Greene (NYJ) vs. New England – The Patriots are allowing 4.8 yards a carry, and that number could rise with linebacker Jared Mayo out indefinitely. Also consider LaDainian Tomlinson a flex option if you’re bye-week desperate, as he may be called on for more touches, especially if Greene continues to struggle.
Unfavorable
LeGarrette Blount (TB) vs. San Francisco — The 49ers can’t stop the pass but they have completely stifled running backs through the first four weeks. No one has rushed for more than the 64 yards Cedric Benson posted in Week 3 and they are the only remaining team that hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown.
Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX) vs. Cincinnati – After limiting one of the N.F.L’s best offenses last week to 13 points, you have to start taking this defense seriously. Allowing a league-low 3.1 yards a carry and 86 yards a game on average, Jones-Drew has a tough one ahead of him.
Rashard Mendenhall/Isaac Redman (PIT) vs. Tennessee – Whoever gets the start for Pittsburgh this week will have his work cut out for him, considering the Titans have allowed just 3.2 yards a carry and 1 rushing TD on the season.
Willis McGahee (DEN) vs. San Diego – Last week’s surprising performance against the then No. 1 ranked rushing defense (Packers) was great for the 5 percent of owners who actually started him. He still carries considerable risk, with Coach John Fox taking the ”hot hand” approach, and the risk will increase the healthier Knoshown Moreno gets. All of that aside, the Chargers are pretty good at stopping the run, as no back has hit the century mark on them so far this season, including Adrian Peterson.
Favorable/Unfavorable Wide Receiver Matchups
Favorable
Jordy Nelson (GB) vs. Atlanta – Any team that allows Tavarias Jackson to look like Joe Montana (career-high 319 passing yards, 3 TDs) is going to find themselves on the favorable side for somebody the following week. Reaching the end zone in three of his first four games, Nelson is clearly Rodgers’s number two wideout regardless of what the depth charts say. He’s an elite WR2 fantasy option as well this week.
Julio Jones (ATL) vs. Green Bay – While Jones has yet to drop a pass this season, unlike his gifted counterpart (White), he has yet to find the end zone. That could change this week, keeping in mind that the Packers gave up two touchdowns to Denver’s No. 2 option Eric Decker last weekend.
Dwayne Bowe (KC) vs. Indianapolis – So far, so good, for owners who took a chance on Bowe despite all the talk that he was in for a major downgrade this season. He’s averaging 10 fantasy points a game, just 2 points lower than he did last year. The Colts have not defended the pass well of late, allowing 22 points a week to receivers on average.
Mike Williams (TB) vs. San Francisco – Williams posted his highest yardage totals of the season (66) Monday night and has a chance to build off that against a really bad 49ers secondary that has allowed almost 30 fantasy points a game to receivers through four weeks. He’s still just a WR3 start, however, considering how effective teams have been able to contain him with double coverage this year.
Unfavorable
Mike Wallace (PIT) vs. Tennessee – Wallace has a banged-up quarterback, running back and terrible offensive line play to deal with, not to mention the Titans’ stout passing defense, which has yet to allow a receiver to post more than 57 yards in a game (third worst matchup).
A.J. Green (CIN) vs. Jacksonville – Outside of Kenny Britt’s huge 136-yard, 2-TD day in Week 1, this unit has been tough on opposing receivers, limiting Santonio Holmes, Steve Smith (South) and Lance Moore to a mere 35-yard average over the last three weeks.
Nate Washington (TEN) vs. Pittsburgh – He was contained by Joe Haden, as we expected him to be, last week, and his 57-yard reception came on a play the shutdown corner was sitting out on. Things don’t get any easier this week against the top-ranked pass defense in the N.F.L. (9.9 FPPG, worst WR matchup) .
Deion Branch (NE) vs. Jets – New England’s Wes Welker had successful games against this secondary last season (11.5 average in 2 games) and is way too hot to bench, but a guy like Branch, who has just four targets over the last two weeks, is certainly fair game.
Favorable/Unfavorable Tight End Matchups
Favorable
Owen Daniels (HOU) vs. OAK – The Raiders did an outstanding job shutting down Rob Gronkowski last week, but with Andre Johnson out, who else is Matt Schaub going to throw to?
Brandon Pettigrew (DET) vs. Chicago – Having the second most targets next to Calvin Johnson for two straight weeks now, Pettigrew is emerging as Stafford’s No. 2 option at Nate Burleson’s expense. He’ll get the best matchup a tight end can have so far this season on Monday night (14 FPPG).
Unfavorable
Jimmy Graham (NO) vs. Carolina
– You can’t bench him, but he might be in for a more average statistical line this week since the Panthers have played pretty well against the position, tied for the lowest amount of receptions allowed (11). They held Jermichael Finley in check in Week 2 (5/68/0 TDs), and with Marques Colston fully healthy, his targets will most likely take a hit.
Favorable/Unfavorable Defense/Special Teams Matchups
Favorable
Detroit vs. Chicago, Giants vs. Seattle, Tennessee vs. Pittsburgh, San Diego vs. Denver, Cincinnati vs. Jacksonville
Unfavorable
Atlanta vs. Green Bay, Buffalo vs. Philadelphia, Chicago vs. Detroit, Green Bay vs. Atlanta
Do you have a “start or sit” question? We are taking questions on Twitter. Follow us at @5thDownFantasy.
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