The True Measure of a Pass-Heavy Offense

The popular perception is that the Green Bay Packers are great because of Aaron Rodgers and the passing offense. And for good reason: Rodgers (and by extension, the entire Green Bay passing offense) is on a record-breaking pace. Rodgers leads the league in completion percentage, touchdowns, touchdown percentage, yards per attempt, adjusted net yards per attempt and adjusted yards per attempt. He’s averaging 11.2 adjusted yards per attempt, the highest mark after a team’s first eight games of any quarterback in over 50 years.

But did you know that the Packers rank 21st in pass attempts this season? I doubt that that jibes with your impression of the Packers as a passing team. The 2007 Patriots — the year Tom Brady carved up opposing defenses nearly every week — barely passed more frequently than the average team that season. The 1999 Rams won the Super Bowl and earned the nickname the Greatest Show on Turf, as Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt led one of the great  passing attacks in football history. That year, the Rams ranked 15th in the league in rush attempts and 19th in pass attempts.

In all of these cases, the statistics did not tell the true story. Those teams passed so successfully that they frequently found themselves in run-favorable situations. Every N.F.L. fan knows that trailing teams tend to pass more frequently than winning teams, and the disparity is stronger the larger the lead or deficit. For example, teams this season are passing on 74 percent of plays when trailing by 17 to 24 points, but that  drops to 44 percent when leading by such a margin. How a game unfolds has a large impact on the ultimate run/pass ratio of a team. To truly understand a team’s offensive philosophy, you need to take into account the scoring flow of the game.

I looked at the play-by-play logs of every game this season, courtesy of Footballguys.com. I excluded all plays in which a team was winning or losing by over 24 points because those plays reveal little about a team’s gameplan (for example, the Colts called 23 pass plays and 23 runs in their 62-7 loss to the Saints; plays in those types of games are counted, but only until the games get out of hand). I also decided to exclude all rushing plays where the runner was the quarterback; many of those plays were probably designed pass plays, but others were designed runs or draws, along with quarterback sneaks and kneeldowns.

Finally, I noted how much the team with the ball was leading or trailing by at the start of each play; that will help to give us a general sense of whether it is a passing or running situation. For example, when the Lions came back from a 20-point deficit against the Vikings, the average scoring margin on Detroit plays was -8.5; not surprisingly, the Lions passed on 74 percent of plays in that game (passing plays include sacks). This past weekend, the Texans jumped out to an early lead against the Browns. Houston’s average offensive play was run with a 14.3-point lead; the Texans ran on 37 of 60 plays (this excludes the Matt Schaub touchdown run and his two kneeldowns at the end of the game). Both Arian Foster and Ben Tate rushed for over 100 yards.

The table below shows the average scoring margin for each “play” by each team this season. Remember, the scoring margin excludes plays where a team has a lead of 25 points or more or trails by such a  margin; it also excludes plays that end with the quarterback running. The table will loosely correlate with team strength, but there are several reasons (outside of the scope of this article) to hesitate before using these numbers as a sort of power ranking:

[Note: All statistics in this article are from before the Monday Night Football game between the Bears and Eagles.]

As you’d expect, the Packers have been in front most of the time this season. That helps  explain why they haven’t passed as frequently as you might think. As you can see, they rank just 13th in percentage of plays that were called passes:

So we know teams like the Steelers and the Packers have played with large leads, and pass more frequently than a team like the Texans. But how would we compare the 49ers to the Falcons? Or the Patriots to the Redskins? We need to convert “margin” and “pass percentage” to equivalent units. We can do that by looking at each team’s standard deviation in each category.

As you may recall from math class, standard deviation measures how spread out the observations are in a particular set of data. The actual standard deviations aren’t all that interesting here, but the key is that by finding out how far from average (as measured by standard deviation) each team is in each category, we can get a true sense of offensive philosophy. On average, the 32 teams ran offensive plays while trailing by 1.2 points (we would expect the average to be negative, because teams kick off after a touchdown or field goal).

The Texans were 1.8 standard deviations above average in the scoring margin category during Houston’s average play; the Packers were 1.7 standard deviations above average, the Steelers 1.6, and so on. At the bottom of the list, of course, would be the Rams at -1.9 standard deviations from the average (taking the standard deviation won’t change the order of the list; it simply measures the variance in the group.)

What about in the pass percentage category? The average team passed on 61 percent of its plays, using the definition of plays from this article. The Bucs were 1.5 standard deviations above average in percentage of plays that were passed; the Texans were -2.1 standard deviations from the average.

Once we have the “margin” category in the same unit as the “pass percentage” category, the rest of the math is easy. If a team has a low margin, that means it has frequently played from behind. If it is high in the pass percentage category, that means it tends to pass often. To measure how frequently a team passes after accounting for game situation, we simply add the standard deviation number in the margin category to the pass percentage standard deviation number.

The table below presents the results. After the team name, the first two columns are just the earlier data reprinted. The next two columns show how many standard deviations above or below average each team was in scoring margin and percentage of passes called. Finally, the last column shows how pass-heavy the offense truly is, after adjusting for average scoring margin.

Lo and behold, the Packers now look to be the most pass-happy team in the league. The Steelers and the Patriots are also in the top four, and the Saints are not far behind. Not surprisingly, the Jaguars and Chiefs lead the way when it comes to run-heavy offenses, regardless of situation. The Jets have actually been relatively run-heavy this season, but their game situation (trailing often) has somewhat distorted the numbers.

Perhaps the most interesting team? The Ravens. A couple of weeks ago, Terrell Suggs said the Ravens needed to pass less and run more; it’s hard to disagree with him. The Ravens have been extremely pass-heavy this season, once you factor in the game situation. Consider that against the Rams, when Baltimore raced out to a 21-0 lead before the first quarter ended, Joe Flacco threw 48 passes while the running backs had just 17 carries. Suggs’s comments came after the Jaguars loss, when Baltimore had 41 dropbacks against just 12 rushes in a game that was close throughout. Against the Steelers this weekend, Baltimore called 50 passing plays despite leading for a majority of the game.

Chase Stuart is a contributor to SmartFootball.com, Footballguys.com and Pro-Football-Reference.com. 

In Week 7, Passing Defenses Continue to Show Pop

Last week, I wrote that the monster passing numbers from the first five weeks took a serious body blow in Week 6, evidenced by a huge decline in passing touchdowns. The knockout punch was delivered in Week 7. After teams averaged over 240 passing yards per game through the first six weeks of the season, the 26 teams playing in Week 7 combined for only 4,997 passing yards this past weekend, a paltry 191 yards per game. Nowhere was this more evident — on Sunday — than in Cleveland, as the Seahawks and Browns put on a pitiful display. The Browns and Seahawks combined for 435 yards and 9 points. It was the worst display of offense in a game not affected by severe weather in over a decade. The Colt McCoy pass attempt watch marches on: he threw 35 passes in a game in which the Browns allowed only 137 yards and 3 points.

But Cleveland-Seattle was just an appetizer for “Monday Night Football.” Against Jacksonville, the Ravens’ first 22 plays netted 6 yards. Baltimore had nine drives in the first half, and the Ravens never got close to getting a first down on any of them. Four of Jacksonville’s first-half possessions gained negative yards; a fifth series ended in a fumble. After 30 minutes, the game featured five fumbles, four first downs and just 29 yards of passing. Baltimore got its first first down with five minutes left in the third quarter. The two teams combined for 185 passing yards, the fewest in any game this season. Joe Flacco threw for only 137 yards on 38 pass attempts; only Jesse Palmer, Bobby Hoying, Kent Graham, Carson Palmer and Tommy Maddox have gained fewer yards on so many attempts since 1970. The Jaguars rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert wasn’t any better — the Jaguars gained  73 passing yards on 24 pass plays. Once again, don’t write the obituary on pass defense just yet.

Another Big Day for Forte

Matt Forte leads the league with 1,091 yards from scrimmage in seven games. As Michael David Smith pointed out this week, his production as a percentage of his team’s offense is even more impressive. In a sloppy game against Tampa Bay in London, Forte was the game’s lone star. This year, he has accounted for 43.6 percent of the Bears’ 2,505 yards from scrimmage. Maurice Jones-Drew (39.3%, Jacksonville), Fred Jackson (38.0%, Buffalo) and Ray Rice (37.1%, Baltimore) are the only other players that have gained at least a  third of their team’s offense. If Forte can keep up this pace, he will become the 19th player since 1940 to accumulate at least 40 percent of his team’s total yards from scrimmage.

Cornerback Heaven

The Kansas City Chiefs’ secondary took over a game Sunday. Left cornerback Brandon Flowers had two interceptions and returned one for a 58-yard touchdown. Right cornerback Brandon Carr intercepted a pass at the Kansas City 10-yard line to kill a Raiders drive before the half. Free safety Kendrick Lewis returned an interception 59 yards for a touchdown. Strong safety Jon McGraw had a fourth-quarter interception at the Chiefs’ 9-yard line to keep the shutout intact. Another defensive back, Travis Daniels, recorded Kansas City’s sixth interception of the day. What about Kansas City’s second-round pick from 2010, cornerback Javier Arenas? All he did was score a touchdown on offense, taking the snap as the Chiefs’ Wildcat quarterback and running 7 yards for the score.

Haven’t I Seen This Before?

In Matt Ryan’s first N.F.L. start, in Week 1 of the 2008 season, his first pass was a 62-yard touchdown strike to Michael Jenkins. In Christian Ponder’s first N.F.L. start, this past Sunday against the Packers, his first pass was a 72-yard connection to Michael Jenkins.

Gonzalez Reaches New Heights, as Do His Chasers

Tony Gonzalez caught five passes against the Lions, giving him 1,104 receptions for his career. That moved him into second place in N.F.L. history, behind only Jerry Rice. An incredible accomplishment for anyone, and Gonzalez is the only tight end in the top 20 on the career receptions list. He’s the greatest tight end in the history of the game, in my view, and deserves to be the first tight end to be inducted on the first Hall of Fame ballot.

But the record books may not be kind to Gonzalez for long. Antonio Gates became just the second tight end to catch 70 touchdown passes, and is “only” 22 touchdown catches away from tying Gonzalez (Gonzalez figures to make a run at the 100-touchdown mark).

With five catches against the Rams on Sunday, Jason Witten continues to be hot on the trail. Both Gonzales and Witten were rookies at age 21, and each missed only one game in their first eight seasons. That makes it easy to compare the two as Witten’s career progresses. Witten played in his 133rd game and has 653 receptions for 7,416 receiving yards. After 133 career games, Gonzalez had 595 receptions for 7,114 yards.

Burress Pulls a Bettis

Plaxico Burress played the role of hero Sunday, scoring all three Jets touchdowns to help lead a comeback against the San Diego Chargers. He also played the role of vulture: Burress became just the third player since 1960 to catch three touchdown passes while failing to gain at least 30 receiving yards. The first two? Tight ends Mack Alston (1975, Houston) and Eric Green (1990, Pittsburgh). Burress’s stat line for the day: 4 receptions, 25 yards, 3 touchdowns. His longest catch of the day was a 15-yard grab, on the one play in which he did not score. All of Burress’s touchdowns came from within the 5, making him just the fourth player in league history to score three touchdowns from inside that mark (Lance Alworth, Kellen Winslow Sr. and Marvin Harrison were the others). It called to mind Jerome Bettis’s 2004 season, when he had one game with 5 carries for 1 yard and 3 touchdowns and another with 6 carries for 9 yards and 2 touchdowns. Bettis led those Steelers in touchdowns, finishing ahead of… Plaxico Burress.

Emmitt Smith, Tony Dorsett… and DeMarco Murray

Tony Dorsett owned the Cowboys’ rookie single-game rushing record;  he rushed for 206 yards against the Eagles in 1977. Emmitt Smith set the Cowboys’ rushing record with 233  yards, also against Philadelphia, in 1993. DeMarco Murray pushed both of them aside Sunday. His 253 rushing yards on 25 carries were the second most by a rookie since 1960, trailing Adrian Peterson. He joined Corey Dillon and Jamaal Charles as the only players in that span with 250 rushing yards on over 10 yards per carry.

On the other side of the coin, the Rams came into the week last in rushing defense. The Cowboys proceeded to run for more yards (294) in Week 7 than any team since the Raiders in Week 7 of the 2009 season. St. Louis is just the third team in the past 15 seasons to allow at least 1,100 combined rushing yards in their first six games.

Rodgers Fantastic; Packers’ Pass Defense Opportunistic: For Now

Aaron Rodgers is starting to enter the rarefied air that Peyton Manning used to inhabit. He’s so good, no one cares when he’s great. Otto Graham and Norm Van Brocklin are the only two players to average over 10 yards per pass during an N.F.L. season, and both of them did it in eras when teams played fewer games and passed less frequently. Small sample sizes enable incredible performances in rate statistics, and Graham and Van Brocklin are good examples of that. But Rodgers is averaging 9.9 yards per attempt after throwing 238 passes, nearly matching the performances of Graham and Van Brocklin over full seasons. And thanks to a sparkling 20:3 touchdown to interception ratio, Rodgers has the single highest adjusted yards per attempt average of any player in any season, with a minimum of 230 pass attempts. Rodgers has averaged at least 10 adjusted yards per pass attempt in six of seven games this season, a feat no quarterback had accomplished in more than four of his team’s first seven games. His worst performance of the season so far was a career day for many quarterbacks: 28 for 38 for 297 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, in a 27-17 win in Chicago.

The Packers’ pass defense has been nowhere near as productive as Green Bay’s offensive counterpart. The pass defense has been more opportunistic than anything, leading the league in interceptions while ranking fourth in interception rate (interceptions per attempt). The Packers are catching 4.8 percent of opposing passes this season, trailing only the Bills, Chiefs and Jets. All four teams should expect their rates to regress toward the  league average for the remainder of the season. While those four teams have interception rates between 4.8 percent and 5.6 percent, no other team has intercepted even 4 percent of opposing passes.

History says that interceptions are largely random. From 1990 to 2010, 69 teams had interceptions rates of at least 5.0 percent after seven games. On average, those teams caught 5.8 percent of opposing passes while the league average rates for teams in those seasons was 3.3 percent. But over the remaining nine games, those teams had interception rates of just 3.7 percent (with the league average remaining at 3.3 percent). Those 69 teams went from interception rates that were 72 percent above league average to just 13 percent, essentially overnight. The Packers have the league’s best record, while the Bills have been one of the league’s surprise teams; the Jets have won three of their four games this season thanks in large part to Darrelle Revis interceptions, while the Chiefs won their third straight game after picking off six  Oakland passes. If those four teams want their success to continue, they will need more than interception luck the rest of the way.

Foster, Johnson, Going in Opposite Directions

In 2009, the Titans’ Chris Johnson rushed for 2,000 yards and set the single-season record with 2,509 yards from scrimmage. That year, Arian Foster was on the Texans’ practice squad for most of the season. In 2010, Foster led the league in rushing yards, rushing yards per game, rushing touchdowns, yards from scrimmage and total touchdowns. The contrast between the two players’ career trajectories was on full display on Sunday. Johnson rushed 10 times for 18 yards, and his 2.2 yards per carry average is last among the 50 qualifying rushers. Johnson could only sit and watch from the sideline as Foster shredded the Titans’ defense, becoming the first player since at least 1960 with 115 rushing yards, 115 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns.

I Do Not Pretend to Understand Tim Tebow

For the first 54.5 minutes on Sunday, the Broncos looked completely inept on offense: 11 drives, 158 yards gained, 8 punts, 2 missed field goals and one fumble lost. Tim Tebow had completed 4 of 14 passes for 40 yards, while rushing six times for 48 yards. Including sacks, he was responsible for 25 plays and had gained a total of 61 yards. The Broncos had not scored a point. In the last five and a half minutes, Tebow completed 9 of 13 passes for 121 yards and 2 touchdowns and ran twice for 17 rushing yards. That doesn’t include the game-tying 2-point conversion, scored on a quarterback off-tackle power run (great explanation by Smart Football’s Chris Brown differentiating this from a quarterback draw). He went from Ryan Leaf to Aaron Rodgers seemingly out of nowhere, and provided even more drama for both the Tebow haters and the Tebow fan club. But as the Big Lead’s Jason Lisk points out, if not for a miraculous onside kick recovery, the talk of the day would be Tebow’s miserable performance, slightly hidden by some garbage-time numbers. Such is the saga of Tebow.

A cautionary note: It was hard not to have flashbacks to Vince Young’s fantastic comeback against the Cardinals in 2009, when he led the Titans on an 18-play, 99-yard drive in the final minutes of the game.  On the last play, Young converted his third fourth down of the drive by throwing the winning touchdown pass. Young outdueled Matt Leinart – again — and led the Titans from 0-6 to 5-6. He received many of the accolades that Tebow is getting now, with comments that his “will to win” and intangibles mattered more than his passing prowess. The clock eventually struck midnight for Young, but don’t believe anyone who tells you he knows how the Tebow story will end.

Mike Wallace and Steve Smith Channel Their Inner Maynard and Alworth

From 1960 to 2010, only 17 players gained at least 700 receiving yards on 20-yards-per-reception in their team’s first seven games. Nine of those performances came during the high-flying 1960s, with over half of those coming from players in the American Football League. With the rise of the West Coast offense and other horizontal passing systems, only one player hit those thresholds between 1993 and 2009: Isaac Bruce. Brandon Lloyd caught 35 for 709 in the first seven games of 2010, and both Steve Smith and Mike Wallace are having big seasons as deep threats so far this season. Wallace led the league in yards per reception as a rookie in 2009, then increased his average reception length in 2010. But he has never been as productive as frequently as he has been this year. Smith had some huge years in the middle of last decade, and is now experiencing a career revival with the strong-armed rookie Cam Newton. Against the Redskins, Smith caught 7 passes for 143 yards, his fourth game of the season with at least 140 receiving yards and a 20-yards-per-carry average. Playing in Arizona, Wallace set a franchise record by catching a 95-yard touchdown pass, and became the first player since Isaac Bruce in 2000 with six straight games with at least one 40-yard reception. Don Maynard and Lance Alworth would be proud.

New Orleans and Manning Witness Another 62-7 rout

There have been two games in the history of the regular season to end with the score 62-7. Both games happened in New Orleans, with a dejected Manning on the losing team’s sideline wishing for better teammates.

In 1973, it was the Atlanta Falcons who roughed up the Saints in the season opener. Atlanta would go on to lose its next three games and score only 15 combined points, but the Falcons were near-flawless against New Orleans. Archie Manning ended the game on the sideline, after throwing five interceptions in 13 pass attempts.

The other game happened on Sunday night, also in New Orleans. This time the Saints rolled, making a mockery of a prime-time  matchup. Archie’s son Peyton looked on, helpless, as the Colts continued their descent into the bottom of the league.

Before the season, I thought that the Manningless-Colts would look out of sync and be without an identity, and could stumble to 3-13. That seems to have been an optimistic viewpoint.

As for the Saints, all of their aspirations remain in front of them. They remain a top Super Bowl contender, and Drew Brees’s presence means they can beat any team in the league. Brees now has 2,477 passing yards, the most since 1960 (and almost certainly ever) by a quarterback after his team’s first seven games. He’s over 400 yards ahead of where Dan Marino was at this point in 1984. That may be surpassed next week, though, if Tom Brady can pass for 315 yards or more against the Steelers.

Chase Stuart contributes to Pro-Football-Reference.com and to Footballguys.com.

For the Bears, a Fake That Was Almost Fabulous

Coming soon to a playing field near you is a trick play so clever it’s likely to be imitated on punt returns throughout the land. Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers, speaking for the team that got duped, called it “the most incredible play I’ve ever seen,” a convincing pantomime that left people “wondering what the heck just happened.” His teammate Greg Jennings thought it was “the best play I’ve ever seen.”

With just over a minute left in the Packers 27-17 beat-down of the Bears, Green Bay punter Tim Masthay got off a towering kick meant to pin Chicago deep in its territory. The ball was heading left but return man Devin Hester pretended it was going right, staring into the sky at a pretend pigskin and moving into place behind a wall of play-acting teammates. Ten of the Packers, looking at Hester rather than the ball, ran toward him like autograph hounds at a Justin Bieber sighting.

Johnny Knox of the Bears had lined up in position to block one of the Green Bay gunners. Just prior to the snap, he raced backward, putting himself in position to catch the kick over his shoulder. The only Packer following the actual arc of the punt was Masthay himself, and he proved no match for Knox, who had two blockers ahead of him to clear the path to the end zone. It appeared to be an 89-yard touchdown, which would have made it a 27-24 game and put the Bears in position to win or tie if they recovered an on-side kick.

Instead Chicago was penalized for holding. Corey Graham, re-signed this year by the Bears for his usually-heady special teams play, had grabbed one of the Packers up field. “It was a bad play by me,” Graham confessed later, pointing out the obvious, that he had committed a foul 30 or 40 yards away from the ball on a player who was soon running in the wrong direction. “I should have let him go, just don’t even touch him.”

The Oscar goes to: Devin Hester. The Razzie to: Corey Graham.

2011 Green Bay Packers Season Preview

Andy Benoit is previewing all 32 N.F.L. teams. Today, he turns to the Packers, the defending champions.

These days, when a team wins a championship, it takes about 30 seconds for people to start wondering if we’re looking at the beginning of a dynasty. It’s as if we’re discussing Chinese history and not a pro sports team. The expectation of a dynasty is as unrealistic as it is unfair.

Except, perhaps, in the Green Bay Packers’ case.

O.K., maybe talking about a dynasty is no less unfair to the Packers than it was to the ’09 Saints or ’11 Mavericks or the ’08 Phillies. But it’s much harder to blame people for wading into the topic this time. Thanks to brilliant long-term roster building by General Manager Ted Thompson, this cohesive, rising team is deep and headlined by handfuls of stars in their prime. The brightest happens to play the most important position, making this the first team since the Montana-Young 49ers to replace a top shelf superstar quarterback with another top shelf superstar quarterback.

Aaron Rodgers is the primary reason people are talking about a longtime powerhouse in Green Bay. But dynasties are like Jenga towers: they can only be built one piece at a time. Thus, the focus is entirely on chasing another Lombardi Trophy in 2011-12. It will be interesting to see just how sharp that focus is. How does a young team stay hungry after  ring ceremonies, media appearances and a break from training camp to visit the White House?

Normally, defending champions can use minicamps and OTA’s to fight complacency. Even then, it’s a difficult battle (just ask the ’09 Steelers). The Packers were one of the few teams whose players did not hold their own organized workouts during the lockout. Whether that makes them fresh and alert or sloppy and satisfied is a matter of interpretation, but you can bet observers will make a declaration one way or the other come September. And that declaration, regardless of its direction or validity, will bring about more pressure.

But no need to waste our time and energy predicting whether the Packers will be “focused” in 2011. Focus is impossible to forecast without eventually resorting to pure guessing. Instead, let’s worry about how this team will tactically go about repeating its success.

The popular assumption is that having everyone healthy after 16 players finished last season on injured reserve will only make the Packers better. But that’s not necessarily true. Tight end Jermichael Finley is the only genuine difference-maker returning from I.R.. Everyone else is a role player who provides depth (Ryan Grant fans, bite your tongues here – we’ll get to the fifth-year running back later).

We often make the mistake of viewing depth as a propagator of success, when in fact, it’s really a symptom. In other words, the Packers aren’t the deepest team in football because Thompson hit home runs with many of his middle-and late-round draft picks; the Packers are the deepest team in football because Thompson hit home runs with his coaching hires. Coach Mike McCarthy is one of the most innovative offensive minds in the league today. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers might be the best 3-4 and sub-package strategist of this era. Green Bay’s coaching staff has installed great systems. When you have great systems, players are put in position to excel, making it easy to cultivate depth.  Far more significant than getting a slew of players back from injured reserve is having every member of last year’s coaching staff back in 2011 save for receivers coach Jimmy Robinson (now in Dallas). That’s rare.

There’s a caveat, though. McCarthy’s and Capers’s systems might create good players, but the systems only work because of a few transcendent players. That’s the real key – the Packers have superstars in exactly the right places.

Offense

A trademark of Mike McCarthy’s system is its transformability. The Packers can line up in a spread formation on one down, a jumbo run bunch on the next down and any base set in between. Like the Saints and Patriots, they have more packages than opponents  have time to prepare for.

But if you had to pigeonhole McCarthy’s system, you could probably get away with calling it a “spread West Coast offense.” The Packers spend considerable time slinging the ball out of 3 x 1 receiver sets. That was their primary formula down the stretch last season and the backbone of their game plan in Super Bowl XLV.

It works because there’s a superstar in the only position that a top-flight N.F.L. offense demands one. Take history out of the equation and you could make a strong argument that Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback right now. He has better velocity and accuracy on throws through tight windows than anyone in the game (which is why he’s borderline invincible in the red zone). His mastery in the pocket is fostered by a release that’s as quick as any passer’s. He is athletic enough to buy time and scramble for positive yardage. In fact, only one quarterback is definitively superior to Rodgers in this realm (Michael Vick). And rarely does Rodgers need to showcase his impressive improvisational skills because he just so happens to have one of the sharpest presnap minds in the league (his brilliance with dummy snap counts is a tremendous aid in this capacity). No other quarterback in the game has such a complete toolbox.

Rodgers’s excellence has enabled McCarthy to design a passing game that makes extremely clever use of receiver distribution and route combinations. The Packers prove that most mismatches are created simply by where certain players line up. McCarthy loves to put three wide receivers to one side of the field and leave Greg Jennings as the isolated wideout (the X receiver) on the other side.

This particular spread almost always forces a defense to guard at least one of the three receivers with a safety (which is a mismatch considering Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson and James Jones all have stellar speed and quickness, and could all be a No. 1 receiver for a small handful of teams). It also often forces defenses to cover Jennings man-to-man (which is a mismatch given that he’s a legitimate top-five receiver). If there’s no safety help on Jennings, that’s where Rodgers goes.

It’s scary to think what McCarthy will come up with now that he has Jermichael Finley and, if the second-round rookie develops quickly, Randall Cobb, at his disposal. From a pure athletic standpoint, the freakishly supple Finley is the most gifted tight end the N.F.L. has ever seen. Obviously, he has to stay healthy and hone his craft for several years before we can even consider talking about him in those terms, but right now, potential alone makes him a one-of-a-kind nightmare for opposing defenses. As for Cobb, he’s a lightning quick multi-tooled weapon.

Credit McCarthy for so often resisting the urge to become a pass-only offense. He understands the value of diversity and being able to control the tempo and clock if need be. It doesn’t take a dominant rushing attack to do this, which is fortunate because the Packers don’t have one. Ryan Grant is proficient, but his mechanical style allows him to  gain only the yards that the play’s design and blockers’ execution presents. He’s not powerful or explosive enough to consistently create on his own.

That’s fine – as Grant has shown before, a player like this can still rush for over 1,200 yards if he’s smart. Rising second-year back James Starks will warrant carries in 2011, but if Ted Thompson and his staff viewed him as a long-term featured back, they probably wouldn’t have drafted bruising north/south runner Alex Green in the third round. Then again, perhaps Green is here to replace Grant, who’s scheduled for free agency in 2012. The Packers can decide after the season.

In the meantime, Grant’s set to start in Week 1. Starks, an improving pass-blocker, can handle the third down duties that Brandon Jackson (now a Brown) left behind, though fullback John Kuhn may have a leg up on him here. Kuhn will also handle short-yardage carries, which means Green will watch and learn from the bottom of the depth chart.

This once-maligned offensive line has been restored and could be one of the league’s best in three years. Last year’s first-round pick, Bryan Bulaga, doesn’t have the quickness to shine on the left side. That’s also fine – the Packers quickly made him a cog at right tackle and went out and got Derek Sherrod in the first-round of this year’s draft. Sherrod could initially get a look at left guard – he’s currently trailing unspectacular but experienced T.J. Lang in a competition to replace the departed Daryn Colledge – but figures to be the eventual heir to left tackle Chad Clifton. At 35, Clifton was supposed to be washed up by now, but he’s coming off one of the best second-half seasons of his rock-solid career. Inside, center Scott Wells is a revered leader and mobile run-blocker. Right guard Josh Sitton just turned 25 and is already the league’s best at his position.

Defense

McCarthy’s offense is built around one superstar. Dom Capers’s defense, which is a versatile and aggressive 3-4-slash-2-4-5, is built around two: slot cornerback Charles Woodson and outside linebacker Clay Matthews. Without a first-class talent at each of these spots, the system wouldn’t exist. Woodson is a sublime blitzer who can also sniff out the run and cover just about any wide receiver or tight end man-to-man. His versatility gives the system its dimension. Matthews is a devastatingly fast edge-rusher who, when given an inkling of space, can slip around any blocker. His speed gives the system its potency. Of the two, Woodson is more valuable simply because so much of what Capers does is about creating disguise before the snap.

The two superstars don’t deserve all the credit. The Packer defense is what the rest of the N.F.L. aspires to because it’s rich with myriad sub packages and presnap looks. This requires smart, multidimensional players in all spots. And because so many of Green Bay’s befuddling tactics rely on zone coverage inside and man coverage outside, this system specifically demands at least one, and preferably two, top shelf cover corners.

Last year’s Super Bowl run probably wouldn’t have happened without the stunning growth of Tramon Williams. Released by the Texans just days before Week 1 as an undrafted rookie in ’06, Williams signed with Green Bay two months later and spent a few years toiling at the bottom of the depth chart. He was an unrefined, flag-drawing liability as a fill-in starter in ’08. An injury to Al Harris led to another fill-in role in ’09, and by the end of that season Williams had started to capitalize on his raw athleticism by becoming a playmaker. By the middle of ’10, he’d become a more consistent playmaker and, more importantly, a fulltime play-stopper. That prompted Thompson to sign him to a four-year, $33 million extension during the season (i.e. before the Packers could win a Super Bowl with Williams shutting down opposing No. 1 receivers and suddenly commanding near-Asomugha money).

Maybe the next man Thompson should sign long-term is defensive backs coach Darren Perry, given that 2010 undrafted rookie Sam Shields appears to be climbing the same staircase to stardom as Williams. (For what it’s worth, Perry’s name was mentioned in several defensive coordinator searches this past off-season.) Shields gives the Packers a second outside stopper, which allows less reliable 27-year-old backups Pat Lee and Jarrett Bush to play more zone as inside dime defenders.

Nick Collins’s range in centerfield also aids this secondary. Collins is given more read-and-react assignments than a typical free safety and has handled the responsibility well enough to earn three straight Pro Bowl trips. At strong safety, second-year pro Morgan Burnett is back from a season-ending knee injury, while backup Charlie Peprah has proven serviceable (though just barely – Peprah’s not the soundest open-field tackler).

Because Woodson is such an effective tackler who compensates for subpar strength by eluding blocks with quickness and leverage, the Packers are willing to remain in their 2-4-5 package even when offenses line up with two tight ends or two running backs. This isn’t to say the Packers do this every time, but the option is there. Thus, it’s not earth-shattering news that B.J. Raji – who has a thundering burst and is on track to be this D’s third superstar, if he’s not already – is moving from nose tackle back to end. He and Ryan Pickett (moving from end back to nose tackle) will line up all over the front during the course of a game.

Mike Neal, a second-round pick in ’10 who missed 14 games last season with a torn rotator cuff, will work ahead of C.J. Wilson and Jarius Wynn in a rotation at the third defensive line position. Space-eating (and everything-else-eating) veteran Howard Green will also get snaps.

An equally deep rotation could take place at the outside linebacker position opposite Matthews. The rash of injuries in 2010 led to Frank Zombo, Erik Walden and Brad Jones starting games at this spot. Zombo has reportedly had the best camp of the three and is in line to start in Week 1. Walden is clearly a better athlete than Zombo, but his run defense is iffy. Jones is probably the best pure pass-rusher of the bunch but isn’t as versatile as Zombo.

Saving the most mundane for last, we get to the inside linebackers. At his best, A.J. Hawk epitomizes a solid puzzle piece (which is a far less insulting characterization than it sounds). Desmond Bishop has enough pop and quickness that Capers will design a few interior blitzes for him each game.

Special Teams

Re-signing kicker Mason Crosby was Thompson’s top priority this past summer. Punter Tim Masthay was very impressive down the stretch last season. Randall Cobb is assuming the punt return duties from Tramon Williams and competing with Alex Green for kick returns.

Bottom Line

On paper this is a better team than a year ago. Having worked together in the same system for several years should be advantageous early in this post-lockout season. A prediction for the Packers comes down to a person’s gut feeling about how the team will respond to the emotional demands of defending a title. The personal hunch here is there’ll be some sort of letdown. But that’s just a guess.

Predicted Finish: 1st N.F.C. North

Andy Benoit is the founder of NFLTouchdown.com and covers the N.F.L. for CBSsports.com. He can be reached at andy.benoit@NFLtouchdown.com.