Andy Benoit is previewing all 32 N.F.L. teams. Today, he turns to the Packers, the defending champions.
These days, when a team wins a championship, it takes about 30 seconds for people to start wondering if we’re looking at the beginning of a dynasty. It’s as if we’re discussing Chinese history and not a pro sports team. The expectation of a dynasty is as unrealistic as it is unfair.
Except, perhaps, in the Green Bay Packers’ case.
O.K., maybe talking about a dynasty is no less unfair to the Packers than it was to the ’09 Saints or ’11 Mavericks or the ’08 Phillies. But it’s much harder to blame people for wading into the topic this time. Thanks to brilliant long-term roster building by General Manager Ted Thompson, this cohesive, rising team is deep and headlined by handfuls of stars in their prime. The brightest happens to play the most important position, making this the first team since the Montana-Young 49ers to replace a top shelf superstar quarterback with another top shelf superstar quarterback.
Aaron Rodgers is the primary reason people are talking about a longtime powerhouse in Green Bay. But dynasties are like Jenga towers: they can only be built one piece at a time. Thus, the focus is entirely on chasing another Lombardi Trophy in 2011-12. It will be interesting to see just how sharp that focus is. How does a young team stay hungry after ring ceremonies, media appearances and a break from training camp to visit the White House?
Normally, defending champions can use minicamps and OTA’s to fight complacency. Even then, it’s a difficult battle (just ask the ’09 Steelers). The Packers were one of the few teams whose players did not hold their own organized workouts during the lockout. Whether that makes them fresh and alert or sloppy and satisfied is a matter of interpretation, but you can bet observers will make a declaration one way or the other come September. And that declaration, regardless of its direction or validity, will bring about more pressure.
But no need to waste our time and energy predicting whether the Packers will be “focused” in 2011. Focus is impossible to forecast without eventually resorting to pure guessing. Instead, let’s worry about how this team will tactically go about repeating its success.
The popular assumption is that having everyone healthy after 16 players finished last season on injured reserve will only make the Packers better. But that’s not necessarily true. Tight end Jermichael Finley is the only genuine difference-maker returning from I.R.. Everyone else is a role player who provides depth (Ryan Grant fans, bite your tongues here – we’ll get to the fifth-year running back later).
We often make the mistake of viewing depth as a propagator of success, when in fact, it’s really a symptom. In other words, the Packers aren’t the deepest team in football because Thompson hit home runs with many of his middle-and late-round draft picks; the Packers are the deepest team in football because Thompson hit home runs with his coaching hires. Coach Mike McCarthy is one of the most innovative offensive minds in the league today. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers might be the best 3-4 and sub-package strategist of this era. Green Bay’s coaching staff has installed great systems. When you have great systems, players are put in position to excel, making it easy to cultivate depth. Far more significant than getting a slew of players back from injured reserve is having every member of last year’s coaching staff back in 2011 save for receivers coach Jimmy Robinson (now in Dallas). That’s rare.
There’s a caveat, though. McCarthy’s and Capers’s systems might create good players, but the systems only work because of a few transcendent players. That’s the real key – the Packers have superstars in exactly the right places.
Offense
A trademark of Mike McCarthy’s system is its transformability. The Packers can line up in a spread formation on one down, a jumbo run bunch on the next down and any base set in between. Like the Saints and Patriots, they have more packages than opponents have time to prepare for.
But if you had to pigeonhole McCarthy’s system, you could probably get away with calling it a “spread West Coast offense.” The Packers spend considerable time slinging the ball out of 3 x 1 receiver sets. That was their primary formula down the stretch last season and the backbone of their game plan in Super Bowl XLV.
It works because there’s a superstar in the only position that a top-flight N.F.L. offense demands one. Take history out of the equation and you could make a strong argument that Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback right now. He has better velocity and accuracy on throws through tight windows than anyone in the game (which is why he’s borderline invincible in the red zone). His mastery in the pocket is fostered by a release that’s as quick as any passer’s. He is athletic enough to buy time and scramble for positive yardage. In fact, only one quarterback is definitively superior to Rodgers in this realm (Michael Vick). And rarely does Rodgers need to showcase his impressive improvisational skills because he just so happens to have one of the sharpest presnap minds in the league (his brilliance with dummy snap counts is a tremendous aid in this capacity). No other quarterback in the game has such a complete toolbox.
Rodgers’s excellence has enabled McCarthy to design a passing game that makes extremely clever use of receiver distribution and route combinations. The Packers prove that most mismatches are created simply by where certain players line up. McCarthy loves to put three wide receivers to one side of the field and leave Greg Jennings as the isolated wideout (the X receiver) on the other side.
This particular spread almost always forces a defense to guard at least one of the three receivers with a safety (which is a mismatch considering Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson and James Jones all have stellar speed and quickness, and could all be a No. 1 receiver for a small handful of teams). It also often forces defenses to cover Jennings man-to-man (which is a mismatch given that he’s a legitimate top-five receiver). If there’s no safety help on Jennings, that’s where Rodgers goes.
It’s scary to think what McCarthy will come up with now that he has Jermichael Finley and, if the second-round rookie develops quickly, Randall Cobb, at his disposal. From a pure athletic standpoint, the freakishly supple Finley is the most gifted tight end the N.F.L. has ever seen. Obviously, he has to stay healthy and hone his craft for several years before we can even consider talking about him in those terms, but right now, potential alone makes him a one-of-a-kind nightmare for opposing defenses. As for Cobb, he’s a lightning quick multi-tooled weapon.
Credit McCarthy for so often resisting the urge to become a pass-only offense. He understands the value of diversity and being able to control the tempo and clock if need be. It doesn’t take a dominant rushing attack to do this, which is fortunate because the Packers don’t have one. Ryan Grant is proficient, but his mechanical style allows him to gain only the yards that the play’s design and blockers’ execution presents. He’s not powerful or explosive enough to consistently create on his own.
That’s fine – as Grant has shown before, a player like this can still rush for over 1,200 yards if he’s smart. Rising second-year back James Starks will warrant carries in 2011, but if Ted Thompson and his staff viewed him as a long-term featured back, they probably wouldn’t have drafted bruising north/south runner Alex Green in the third round. Then again, perhaps Green is here to replace Grant, who’s scheduled for free agency in 2012. The Packers can decide after the season.
In the meantime, Grant’s set to start in Week 1. Starks, an improving pass-blocker, can handle the third down duties that Brandon Jackson (now a Brown) left behind, though fullback John Kuhn may have a leg up on him here. Kuhn will also handle short-yardage carries, which means Green will watch and learn from the bottom of the depth chart.
This once-maligned offensive line has been restored and could be one of the league’s best in three years. Last year’s first-round pick, Bryan Bulaga, doesn’t have the quickness to shine on the left side. That’s also fine – the Packers quickly made him a cog at right tackle and went out and got Derek Sherrod in the first-round of this year’s draft. Sherrod could initially get a look at left guard – he’s currently trailing unspectacular but experienced T.J. Lang in a competition to replace the departed Daryn Colledge – but figures to be the eventual heir to left tackle Chad Clifton. At 35, Clifton was supposed to be washed up by now, but he’s coming off one of the best second-half seasons of his rock-solid career. Inside, center Scott Wells is a revered leader and mobile run-blocker. Right guard Josh Sitton just turned 25 and is already the league’s best at his position.
Defense
McCarthy’s offense is built around one superstar. Dom Capers’s defense, which is a versatile and aggressive 3-4-slash-2-4-5, is built around two: slot cornerback Charles Woodson and outside linebacker Clay Matthews. Without a first-class talent at each of these spots, the system wouldn’t exist. Woodson is a sublime blitzer who can also sniff out the run and cover just about any wide receiver or tight end man-to-man. His versatility gives the system its dimension. Matthews is a devastatingly fast edge-rusher who, when given an inkling of space, can slip around any blocker. His speed gives the system its potency. Of the two, Woodson is more valuable simply because so much of what Capers does is about creating disguise before the snap.
The two superstars don’t deserve all the credit. The Packer defense is what the rest of the N.F.L. aspires to because it’s rich with myriad sub packages and presnap looks. This requires smart, multidimensional players in all spots. And because so many of Green Bay’s befuddling tactics rely on zone coverage inside and man coverage outside, this system specifically demands at least one, and preferably two, top shelf cover corners.
Last year’s Super Bowl run probably wouldn’t have happened without the stunning growth of Tramon Williams. Released by the Texans just days before Week 1 as an undrafted rookie in ’06, Williams signed with Green Bay two months later and spent a few years toiling at the bottom of the depth chart. He was an unrefined, flag-drawing liability as a fill-in starter in ’08. An injury to Al Harris led to another fill-in role in ’09, and by the end of that season Williams had started to capitalize on his raw athleticism by becoming a playmaker. By the middle of ’10, he’d become a more consistent playmaker and, more importantly, a fulltime play-stopper. That prompted Thompson to sign him to a four-year, $33 million extension during the season (i.e. before the Packers could win a Super Bowl with Williams shutting down opposing No. 1 receivers and suddenly commanding near-Asomugha money).
Maybe the next man Thompson should sign long-term is defensive backs coach Darren Perry, given that 2010 undrafted rookie Sam Shields appears to be climbing the same staircase to stardom as Williams. (For what it’s worth, Perry’s name was mentioned in several defensive coordinator searches this past off-season.) Shields gives the Packers a second outside stopper, which allows less reliable 27-year-old backups Pat Lee and Jarrett Bush to play more zone as inside dime defenders.
Nick Collins’s range in centerfield also aids this secondary. Collins is given more read-and-react assignments than a typical free safety and has handled the responsibility well enough to earn three straight Pro Bowl trips. At strong safety, second-year pro Morgan Burnett is back from a season-ending knee injury, while backup Charlie Peprah has proven serviceable (though just barely – Peprah’s not the soundest open-field tackler).
Because Woodson is such an effective tackler who compensates for subpar strength by eluding blocks with quickness and leverage, the Packers are willing to remain in their 2-4-5 package even when offenses line up with two tight ends or two running backs. This isn’t to say the Packers do this every time, but the option is there. Thus, it’s not earth-shattering news that B.J. Raji – who has a thundering burst and is on track to be this D’s third superstar, if he’s not already – is moving from nose tackle back to end. He and Ryan Pickett (moving from end back to nose tackle) will line up all over the front during the course of a game.
Mike Neal, a second-round pick in ’10 who missed 14 games last season with a torn rotator cuff, will work ahead of C.J. Wilson and Jarius Wynn in a rotation at the third defensive line position. Space-eating (and everything-else-eating) veteran Howard Green will also get snaps.
An equally deep rotation could take place at the outside linebacker position opposite Matthews. The rash of injuries in 2010 led to Frank Zombo, Erik Walden and Brad Jones starting games at this spot. Zombo has reportedly had the best camp of the three and is in line to start in Week 1. Walden is clearly a better athlete than Zombo, but his run defense is iffy. Jones is probably the best pure pass-rusher of the bunch but isn’t as versatile as Zombo.
Saving the most mundane for last, we get to the inside linebackers. At his best, A.J. Hawk epitomizes a solid puzzle piece (which is a far less insulting characterization than it sounds). Desmond Bishop has enough pop and quickness that Capers will design a few interior blitzes for him each game.
Special Teams
Re-signing kicker Mason Crosby was Thompson’s top priority this past summer. Punter Tim Masthay was very impressive down the stretch last season. Randall Cobb is assuming the punt return duties from Tramon Williams and competing with Alex Green for kick returns.
Bottom Line
On paper this is a better team than a year ago. Having worked together in the same system for several years should be advantageous early in this post-lockout season. A prediction for the Packers comes down to a person’s gut feeling about how the team will respond to the emotional demands of defending a title. The personal hunch here is there’ll be some sort of letdown. But that’s just a guess.
Predicted Finish: 1st N.F.C. North
Andy Benoit is the founder of NFLTouchdown.com and covers the N.F.L. for CBSsports.com. He can be reached at andy.benoit@NFLtouchdown.com.
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