Showing posts with label Jay Cutler. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jay Cutler. Show all posts

Friday, September 23, 2011

Week 3 N.F.L. Matchups

Packers (2-0) at Bears (1-1)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Packers 3.

Jay Cutler is a 50-Tesla, super-cooled, solenoid-style electromagnet for criticism. He can attract scorn from hundreds of miles away. Everything about Cutler’s career is polarizing: the gaudy statistics that contrast his 35-35 win-loss record; his penchant for turnovers; his snippy, irritable public demeanor; and his career-long association with mercurial offensive masterminds like Mike Shanahan, Josh McDaniels and Mike Martz, who only magnify his peculiar attraction-repulsion effect.
Last season’s N.F.C. championship game became Ferris Cutler’s Day Off, with the (somewhat) injured quarterback looking less willing than able on the sideline as his backups got battered by the Packers. It was the type of nonperformance that defines a career, fairly or not, and a win Sunday could deflect a tiny bit of criticism. Unfortunately, Cutler’s Bears are 1-4 against the Packers in the past two seasons, and their offensive line is still bad enough to make even the toughest quarterback consider using a sick day. Pick: Packers

Texans (2-0) at Saints (1-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Saints by 4.

Had the Texans faced the Saints last year, Drew Brees would have thrown for 600 yards. Houston’s defense has improved drastically since then. The coordinator Wade Philips has apparently grown smarter since leaving the Cowboys (it’s a common phenomenon), and newcomers like cornerback Johnathan Joseph and the rookie defensive lineman J.J. Watt have helped the star pass rusher Mario Williams make an early impact. The Texans rank first in the N.F.L. in pass defense, though the Dolphins’ defeatist attack and the Colts’ “Men of a Certain Age” offense did not offer the kind of test the Texans face this week.
The Saints offense is just like it was in previous years, only moreso: the arrivals of running backs Darren Sproles and Mark Ingram have more than offset the loss of the injured receiver Marques Colston. The offense no longer gets much attention because a) we are used to it and b) offensive production around the league is so high that Brees can complete 67.4 percent of his passes and throw for six touchdowns in two weeks without attracting notice. The first team to score 30 points will win this game, but at least the Texans defense is now good enough to keep that from happening before halftime. Pick: Saints

Giants (1-1) at Eagles (1-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Eagles by 7.

For Philadelphia, Dream Team is not a boast but a descriptor. The Eagles’ games follow the disjointed logic of the subconscious, each one a fantasia of improbable joys and unspeakable terrors jumbled together in a neurotic heap. In the fourth quarter, a fellow named Kafka arrives to make it clear that you have left the physical world for some existential realm, though Nietzsche may be more appropriate: when you gaze into the abyss, you realize that it is the middle of the Eagle defense, and Ahmad Bradshaw could easily run straight through it for a 60-yard gain.
The Giants do not expect to see the backup quarterback Mike Kafka on Sunday; Michael Vick (concussion) made progress during the week and is capable of producing much more tangible nightmares. Memories of the Eagles’ comeback last season are fresh for the Giants, and while punter Steve Weatherford has vowed to kick the ball where he is told (i.e. nowhere near DeSean Jackson in the fourth quarter), nothing in dreams or Eagles games happens quite the way you expect it to. Pick: Eagles

Falcons (1-1) at Buccaneers (1-1)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Buccaneers by 1.

When the former Falcons punter-kickoff specialist Michael Koenen signed a $19.5 million contract with Tampa Bay, it appeared that the league’s general managers had grown a little lockout-loopy and wanted to spend big money on anyone, even a punter-kickoff specialist, just to get the tingle back. But as ESPN.com noted this week, the Buccaneers’ move has paid dividends. Koenen is averaging 49.5 yards per punt, and his two kickoffs that weren’t touchbacks were returned a total of 17 yards. He also executed a successful onside kick. His rookie replacement in Atlanta, Matt Bosher, shanked an 18-yard punt against the Eagles and is one of the few kickoff specialists in the league who cannot consistently produce touchbacks.
Bosher costs the Falcons almost $3 million less than Koenen, but four of the last five games between these teams have been decided by a touchdown or less, so trading a lot of money for a little field position could come back to haunt them. Pick: Buccaneers

Steelers (1-1) at Colts (0-2)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Line: Steelers by 10.

Opinions on how the Colts should address their quarterback problem correspond directly to the speaker or writer’s overarching philosophical stance. The optimist waits for Peyton Manning to return. (“He will return. He must return.”) The pessimist wants to give up and draft Andrew Luck. (“This era is over. Can’t you see it’s over?”) The pragmatist looks to the young backup Curtis Painter. (“Let’s use this opportunity to evaluate some prospects.”) The realist advocates sticking with Kerry Collins. (“There are no viable solutions, so we might as well get our $4 million worth.”) The nihilist wants to call Brett Favre. (“The season is ruined, so why not destroy hope and sanity as well?”) The cynic comments on all of the others from above the fray, mocking their opinions but offering no viable alternatives, and profiting from the enterprise. Pick: Steelers

Patriots (2-0) at Bills (2-0)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Patriots by 8.

The Patriots lead the league with 563 yards per game, but the Bills lead the N.F.L. in scoring with 79 points. Both teams are on pace to break offensive records set by the Patriots during their 2007 Year of Hubris, but while the Patriots do this sort of thing all the time, the Bills are still figuring out how to cope with success. Both quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and receiver Steve Johnson become free agents at the end of the season, and every time they connect for a touchdown, it raises their market value to too-expensive-for-Buffalo heights. Pick: Patriots

Jaguars (1-1) at Panthers (0-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Panthers by 3.

Rookie watchers alert: Blaine Gabbert makes the first start of his N.F.L. career this week. He is already a dozen laps behind Cam Newton in the rookie of the year race; not only does Newton lead the Panthers in passing and rushing, but he also leads an offense that ranks second in the league to the Patriots in net yards. Gabbert had to wait for his chance behind the ineffective journeyman Luke McCown, who replaced David Garrard, who was released just days before the season opener in a money-saving move. It is the kind of disorderly succession we normally associate with island nations ruled by individuals with the official title of “strong man,” but this is really how the Jaguars conduct business. Pick: Panthers

Broncos (1-1) at Titans (1-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Titans by 6.

Random fact: the Titans have not yet returned a kickoff this year, while the Broncos have not yet allowed a kickoff return. Broncos kicker Matt Prater is 10 for 10 on touchbacks, but this is his first trip out of the rocket propulsion laboratory in Denver this season, so he is due to send one less than 70 yards. Mark Mariani is theoretically the Titans’ kickoff returner, though the team may want to consider Chris Johnson (probable, ribs), who is averaging 2.3 yards per carry after signing a $53 million contract and needs to start making some positive contributions. Pick: Titans

Lions (2-0) at Vikings (0-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Lions by 3.

The Vikings have outscored opponents, 34-7, in the first half this season, only to be outscored, 41-3, in the second. Strange personnel decisions have hurt them late in games. The injury-prone receiver Percy Harvin has become the porcelain tea service that is too precious to actually use: he often leaves the game in critical situations so that he will be available for hypothetical even-more-critical situations that never come. The Lions have a chance to make a statement this week. That statement is “beating the Chiefs really does count.” Pick: Lions

Dolphins (0-2) at Browns (1-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Browns by 2.

The Dolphins’ early-season woes transcend bad play and bad luck. The issue is now bad posture. “It’s a body-language thing,” safety Yeremiah Bell told The Palm Beach Post. “If you’ve got bad body language, that’s not a good sign.” Coaches have spent the week stressing to Dolphins receivers that they should not curl into the fetal position after incomplete passes. Pick: Browns

49ers (1-1) at Bengals (1-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Bengals by 2.

The 49ers needed two special-teams touchdowns to beat the merrily bumbling Seahawks, then fell victim to Romo: the Resurrection in an overtime loss to the Cowboys. With their stout defense, exceptional kicking game and nearlyadequate offense, the 49ers are arguably the best team in the N.F.C. West. If fainter praise exists, you do not want to be damned by it. Pick: Bengals

Jets (2-0) at Raiders (1-1)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Jets by 3.

Stop us if you have heard this before: the Raiders have an exciting new rookie wide receiver, a former high school track champion with iffy football fundamentals. This time it’s Denarius Moore, who has five catches for a whopping 146 yards this season. He also gained 25 yards on a reverse, because the Raiders cannot count on Jason Campbell to throw the ball to wide receivers and therefore often ask him to hand it to them. These Raiders burners have a way of burning out after a game or two. After his trip to Revis Island, Moore will still be the Raiders’ top receiver. With five catches for 146 yards. Pick: Jets

Ravens (1-1) at Rams (0-2)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Ravens by 3.

The Rams are 1 of 5 on red-zone conversions this year, but the way they screw up near the goal line makes them compelling to watch. They drive effortlessly down the field, get inside the 20-yard line, then turn and pitch the ball straight backward so opposing defenders can scoop and score. The laterals to nowhere are interspersed with bouts of crippling stage fright at around the 5-yard line, with Sam Bradford spraying passes outside the diving reach of his receivers. The possible return of the powerful running back Steven Jackson (day-to-day, thigh) could help; when your your top red-zone weapons are guys like Greg Salas, the urge to just heave the ball away in frustration must be powerful. Pick: Ravens

Chiefs (0-2) at Chargers (1-1)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Chargers by 14.

Last week, we explored Bill Belichick’s perpetual post-victory grouchiness. This week, we bathe in the eternal sunshine of Norv Turner’s mind after losing to Belichick’s Patriots. “I’m so excited about our football team,” Turner said before channeling Ernie (Let’s Play Two) Banks. “Obviously, when you have a game like this, you can’t wait to go play again.” Obviously; who wouldn’t want to relive the magic of a four-turnover 35-21 loss? It is always sunny in San Diego, and in Turner’s psyche, because the Chargers do look great when not making mistakes in the red zone, and the A.F.C West gets weaker every time Todd Haley makes a decision. Pick: Chargers

Cardinals (1-1) at Seahawks (0-2)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Cardinals by 3.

The Seahawks’ offensive highlight reel is so short that it is a subliminal message. The team averages just 3.8 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 31st in the N.F.L. (or dead last if you no longer count the Chiefs). The running game produces just 2.7 yards per carry, so at least no one can point fingers. The Cardinals have allowed 713 passing yards to Cam Newton and Rex Grossman in the first two games, so if the Seahawks cannot get something going this week, they never will. Pick: Cardinals

Redskins (2-0) at Cowboys (1-1)
Monday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Cowboys 5.

Tony Romo led the Cowboys to an overtime victory last week over the 49ers despite cracked ribs and a punctured lung. In light of this effort, we would like to apologize for a few of our slights against Romo’s toughness over the years: wise-cracking about Cabo vacations, mistaking Carrie Underwood songs for scouting reports and so on. Rex Grossman may also someday merit an apology, but let’s wait for him to go two straight weeks without a two-interception game before we get carried away. Pick: Cowboys

Times are Eastern. Picks do not reflect the betting line.


Wednesday, September 21, 2011

In N.F.L., the Cost of Doing Business Through the Air

For excitement, the first two weeks of the N.F.L. season have exceeded expectations. Scoring and passing yardage are at near-record levels, and Sunday’s Dallas-San Francisco game was just one example of the many games that have been decided by big passing plays at the finish.

But for teams with futures heavily dependent on their starting quarterbacks, and that is just about every team, there is an inherent risk.

Already, a seemingly large number of high-profile quarterbacks have absorbed debilitating hits. Philadelphia’s Michael Vick walked off the field spitting up blood after sustaining a concussion against the Falcons. The Vikings’ ferocious pass rush also drew blood against Tampa Bay’s Josh Freeman as he led the Buccaneers to a come-from-behind 24-20 victory.

There is more. Dallas’s Tony Romo delivered his deciding 77-yard pass to Jesse Holley in overtime against the 49ers as he was fighting the effects of a cracked rib and punctured lung that had knocked him out of the game in the second quarter. And Chicago’s Jay Cutler has given new meaning to the term “picking yourself up off the mat”; he has been battered by an N.F.L.-leading 11 sacks in the first two games.

Other quarterbacks among the walking wounded include Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger, who nearly had a serious knee injury against Seattle; Atlanta’s Matt Ryan, who has been sacked nine times; and the Jets’ Mark Sanchez, who on his first play of the 2011 season was body-slammed to the turf by Dallas’s DeMarcus Ware. Sanchez also absorbed some heavy hits against the Jaguars on Sunday.

Be careful  what you wish for, football fans, your big-play quarterback could be next.

Monday, August 22, 2011

2011 Chicago Bears Season Preview

Andy Benoit is previewing all 32 N.F.L. teams. He kicks off the N.F.C. North with an analysis of the Bears, who will be playing the Giants tonight in a preseason game.

By virtually all measurements, the Chicago Bears should be better in 2011. They enter the season with fresh playoff experience. Their leader, Lovie Smith, once on the hot seat, is now one of the five highest-paid coaches in the game after signing a contract extension that reportedly pays him in the neighborhood of $6 million annually through 2013. The offense is better acclimated to Mike Martz’s system and has three new key contributors in wide receiver Roy Williams, running back Marion Barber and the first-round rookie right tackle Gabe Carimi. And the defense is the same defense that ranked fourth in points allowed last season.

Yet, if you asked your gut, it’d probably say this team will not be better in 2011…right? When you lose the N.F.C. championship at home, being better the next year basically means reaching the Super Bowl. Is anyone outside the Windy City talking about the Bears and Super Bowl XLVI?

Last time the Bears went 11-5 and reached the playoffs, they did go all the way to the Super Bowl the following year. But that ’06 campaign was followed the next three years by seasons of 7-9, 9-7 and 7-9. That stretch of mediocrity is one source of the doubt some people are feeling about this squad.

Or maybe there’s doubt because Chicago’s quarterback, the neither likeable nor outgoing Jay Cutler, doesn’t fit the profile of a typical star. Even with scores of people embarrassing themselves by questioning the man’s toughness in the N.F.C. championship loss, Cutler isn’t acting as if he he has anything to prove in 2011. After all, having something to prove would require caring about what folks outside the locker room think. Cutler may play the season with a chip on his shoulder, but that chip has actually been there since Denver made him a first-round pick in 2006.

Maybe there’s doubt about this club because no one really believes its systems can work again. Mike Martz’s downfield passing offense on the sloppy Soldier Field track? Behind this terrible offensive line? No way. Lovie Smith’s traditional Tampa 2 defense? In this day of 3-4 blitzing and amoeba looks? Not a chance.

Or maybe the doubt pertains to the sheer magnificence of the rival Packers. Or to the league’s new kickoff rules, which put a serious dent in this team’s greatest strength. Or to  Bears’ fans being ticked off at General Manager Jerry Angelo for not partaking in the free-agent frenzy and for low-balling the now-departed veteran center Olin Kreutz. (Bears fans are off base here in their criticism of Angelo.)

Whatever the reason, the Chicago Bears aren’t being regarded as legitimate Super Bowl contenders in 2011. Is that Football America being prudent, or Football America unwisely overlooking this team again?

Offense

The Bears know they can’t afford to have Jay Cutler sacked 52 times again this season. But there might be little they can do about it. Mike Martz’s offense is built predominantly on downfield routes that develop slowly off seven-step drops. It’s also built on maximizing the number of receiving outlets. Instead of having running backs stay in and pass protect, they often run patterns out of the backfield. In this system, the only eligible receiver who stays in and blocks is usually the tight end, which is why the Bears felt comfortable trading the pass-catching oriented Greg Olsen to Carolina. (The 262-pound Kellen Davis will fill Olsen’s spot, with some help from lanky ex-Steeler Matt Spaeth.)

Whether you like it or not, this is the system. This is what you sign up for when you hire Martz to coordinate your offense. As you might imagine, Martz’s system puts considerable demands on the offensive line in pass protection. And, as it’s plain to see, the Bears don’t have the talent up front to consistently meet these demands. They’re hoping that rookie right tackle Gabe Carimi can ameliorate the issue. Perhaps he can, but his presence won’t make up for lumbering left tackle JaMarcus Webb’s cinderblock feet. It’s stunning that the Bears are having the ’10 seventh-round pick guard Cutler’s blind side. Frank Omiyale wasn’t great in this position last season, but he wasn’t the liability Webb will be.

Inside is almost equally precarious. Left guard Chris Williams is a poor lateral mover whose feet get cemented in pass protection, particularly against bull-rushers. Right guard Roberto Garza is serviceable but lacks elite quickness. There’s a ray of hope with new center Chris Spencer, who’s 29 and a likely upgrade over the rapidly declining Olin Kreutz. Spencer has good size and adequate power; the question is, Can he win the job and stay healthy? (Garza began training camp as the starting center, with Lance Louis at right guard. But Garza has started just one game at center in his 11-year career and isn’t great operating out of position; expect Spencer to eventually get the nod here.)

To Martz’s credit, he’s lately shown a willingness to tweak his scheme with more running plays. This uncharacteristic play-calling balance is effective not because it keeps the defense honest or sets up play-action (these axioms are more myth than truth in today’s N.F.L.) but because it gives Chicago’s unathletic front five more opportunities to fire off the ball as run-blockers, and thus, be the aggressors. That’s important for the O-line’s rhythm; this group isn’t athletic enough to survive 60 minutes playing with the reactive approach that dropping back in pass protection requires.

Martz has a more powerful run game to rely on this season. Matt Forte, with his smooth but overly languid running motion, is still the starter. But new backup, ex-Cowboy Marion Barber, figures to contribute prominently. (So prominently that quick, space-oriented veteran Chester Taylor could be cut.) Barber has the one trait any runner needs when working behind Chicago’s offensive line: the tenacity to break tackles.

Though balanced (or close to balanced), Martz’s offense is still distinctly pass-heavy. And rightfully so. An arm as strong as Jay Cutler’s isn’t found often. Best to take advantage of it. Because of unyielding trust in his arm strength, interceptions will always be an issue with Cutler (just as they were always an issue with Brett Favre). Not wanting to compromise his style of play, the best way for Cutler to continue cutting down on turnovers is to sharpen his presnap diagnostic skills. He’s never been very good in this realm.

Fortunately, Martz does a terrific job of helping his quarterback in this department. He doesn’t give Cutler audibling powers (you think Martz would be crazy enough to let someone change his play call!?) but he employs a panoply of presnap movements and shifts, which often compel a defense to settle into a predictable coverage.

You need predictable coverages when Devin Hester is one of your starters. Though a sensational creator on special teams, Hester’s mediocre 0-60 acceleration in traffic and his still-primitive route running make him an ordinary wide receiver. It makes no sense to start Hester ahead of speedy Johnny Knox (who exploits zones well and is clearly a guy Cutler trusts).

The Bears’ No. 1 wideout is Roy Williams. Don’t laugh. The 29-year-old veteran has become a whipping boy because of his disappointing tenure in Dallas, but he was never a good fit for that system (he’s a big straight-line target with enormous feet that make changing direction difficult). We know Williams is a good fit in Martz’s system – he had 2,148 yards receiving when the two were together for 28 games in Detroit.

Another underachieving ex-Cowboy, Sam Hurd, rounds out the receiving corps, though he’ll probably be behind No. 4 receiver Earl Bennett, a steady but not explosive underneath possession target.

Defense

Lovie Smith is one of the ripest apples from the Tony Dungy tree. Consequently, the Bears are pretty much the only team left still running a full-time Tampa Two. The vanilla zone scheme is like a tube television or flip phone: a relic of an era just gone by but still a serviceable tool for those fully committed to preserving their status quo.

The Bears can only pull this off because their status quo has always been superior to everyone else’s. For most defenses, Tampa Two is now a form of prevent defensel; it’s a soft zone that’s naturally vulnerable to swing passes in the backfield, passes in the 15-20-yard range outside the numbers and anything down the seams. But most defenses don’t have two star linebackers or a deep rotation of initially explosive defensive linemen.

At this point, Chicago’s stud linebackers, Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, both of whom are on the wrong side of 30, are more super cogs than superstars. This is to say that their experience and judiciousness in this scheme masks most of their mild-but-relevant physical decline. Both can still run, which is vital. In fact, Urlacher is probably the only zone-playing middle linebacker in football whose first step after the snap does not have to be backwards as respect to the possibility of a pass; he’s fast enough to initially attack downhill and retreat into coverage if need be.

Briggs eats up ground in space but is actually most effective in traffic. He’d make more sense at the less glamorous strongside linebacker position, but three Pro Bowls as a weakside ‘backer nullify any thoughts of a position change. Hence, the vastly underrated Nick Roach, who plays fast all-around, starts on the weak side. It’s a fervid linebacking unit, over all, though its customary depth is nonexistent this season; special teamer Brian Iwuh is the only experienced backup.

Something very astute that Urlacher and Briggs often do is crowd the A-gaps right before the ball is snapped. Almost always they retreat back into normal linebacking position immediately after the snap, but by simply lining up right over the ball and presenting the remote possibility of a blitz, they force the opposing center to account for them. This prevents the center from helping either guard, which prevents offensive lines from double-teaming Chicago’s defensive linemen without sacrificing a running back or tight end. This is a key for a defense predicated on generating pressure with a classic four-man rush.

Obviously, with Julius Peppers around, offenses are still going to sacrifice their backs or tight ends to help double-team the end. That’s the value of Peppers, and Bears defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli has created some great designs to take advantage of the attention he attracts (the best probably being a delay blitz from the secondary, which exploits running backs who have abandoned the backfield to go help on Peppers).

Israel Idonije matched Peppers’s sack total last season (eight) and employed his terrific movement skills on stunts and bull-rushes both inside and out. The versatile Idonije can line up as a defensive tackle in nickel, if need be, and make room for second-year pro Corey Wootton (barring recurring knee problems) or disappointing ex-Jet Vernon Gholston on the edge.

Second-round rookie Stephen Paea is expected to be a force both as a two-gap occupier at nose tackle and one-gap penetrator as a three-technique. He’ll probably start at some point, although hardworking and flexible Henry Melton and low-leveraged plugger Anthony Adams could get the first looks inside. Matt Toeaina moves well and has power to warrant significant snaps as well. And, just as a shot in the dark, the Bears brought in former Texans first-round bust Amobi Okoye, who isn’t better than anyone mentioned thus far but is still only 24. Lovie Smith is a big proponent of rotating fresh defensive linemen, so expect Chicago to dedicate as many roster spots to this area as possible.

For offenses facing a Tampa Two, aligning wide receivers in minus-split formations (i.e. close to the formation) almost always ensures a wide receiver being matched up on a safety.  In Tampa Two, the cornerbacks do not flip sides or even stray far from their outside posts. Because of this, it’s important that strong safety Chris Harris and new starting free safety Major Wright (who is about the 87th different player the Bears have tried at this position) be able to cover. They don’t have to be stars – they’re playing a simple zone, after all – but if they’re stiff, they’re sure to get exploited.

Harris’d movement is O.K. and he has great physicality – he should be fine. Wright, a third-round pick a year ago, is a tossup, which his why Jerry Angelo spent this year’s third-round pick on another free safety, Chris Conte.

Right cornerback Charles Tillman is a turnover-creating machine when comfortable (which is more often than not). Left cornerback Tim Jennings requires a little more safety help but clearly has the hip swivel that Zackary Bowman was lacking in this spot. D.J. Moore’s tendency to stare in the backfield probably led to Corey Graham getting the nickel job. The Bears aren’t all that comfortable with Graham either. If they were, they wouldn’t have had unsigned ex-Colt Kelvin Hayden in for a visit.

Special Teams

Robbie Gould is as fine a place-kicker as the league has to offer. His sterling accuracy numbers are often protected by Lovie Smith’s reluctance to attempt long field goals. New punter Adam Podlesh ranked fifth in the league in net average as a Jaguar last season. Devin Hester is the best punt returner in N.F.L. history. And, with Danieal Manning gone, he’ll now get even more kick returns…or would have before the league implemented new kickoff rules that this team abhors.

Bottom Line

Pro football is partly about deciphering patterns and probability. Years of patterns and probability suggest that the offensive line limitations will catch up to the Bears sooner than later. The defense is staunch, though an injury to Urlacher or Briggs could prove fatal.

Predicted Finish: 3rd N.F.C. North

Andy Benoit is the founder of NFLTouchdown.com and covers the N.F.L. for CBSsports.com. He can be reached at andy.benoit@NFLtouchdown.com.

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