Andy Benoit is previewing all 32 N.F.L. teams. He kicks off the N.F.C. North with an analysis of the Bears, who will be playing the Giants tonight in a preseason game.
By virtually all measurements, the Chicago Bears should be better in 2011. They enter the season with fresh playoff experience. Their leader, Lovie Smith, once on the hot seat, is now one of the five highest-paid coaches in the game after signing a contract extension that reportedly pays him in the neighborhood of $6 million annually through 2013. The offense is better acclimated to Mike Martz’s system and has three new key contributors in wide receiver Roy Williams, running back Marion Barber and the first-round rookie right tackle Gabe Carimi. And the defense is the same defense that ranked fourth in points allowed last season.
Yet, if you asked your gut, it’d probably say this team will not be better in 2011…right? When you lose the N.F.C. championship at home, being better the next year basically means reaching the Super Bowl. Is anyone outside the Windy City talking about the Bears and Super Bowl XLVI?
Last time the Bears went 11-5 and reached the playoffs, they did go all the way to the Super Bowl the following year. But that ’06 campaign was followed the next three years by seasons of 7-9, 9-7 and 7-9. That stretch of mediocrity is one source of the doubt some people are feeling about this squad.
Or maybe there’s doubt because Chicago’s quarterback, the neither likeable nor outgoing Jay Cutler, doesn’t fit the profile of a typical star. Even with scores of people embarrassing themselves by questioning the man’s toughness in the N.F.C. championship loss, Cutler isn’t acting as if he he has anything to prove in 2011. After all, having something to prove would require caring about what folks outside the locker room think. Cutler may play the season with a chip on his shoulder, but that chip has actually been there since Denver made him a first-round pick in 2006.
Maybe there’s doubt about this club because no one really believes its systems can work again. Mike Martz’s downfield passing offense on the sloppy Soldier Field track? Behind this terrible offensive line? No way. Lovie Smith’s traditional Tampa 2 defense? In this day of 3-4 blitzing and amoeba looks? Not a chance.
Or maybe the doubt pertains to the sheer magnificence of the rival Packers. Or to the league’s new kickoff rules, which put a serious dent in this team’s greatest strength. Or to Bears’ fans being ticked off at General Manager Jerry Angelo for not partaking in the free-agent frenzy and for low-balling the now-departed veteran center Olin Kreutz. (Bears fans are off base here in their criticism of Angelo.)
Whatever the reason, the Chicago Bears aren’t being regarded as legitimate Super Bowl contenders in 2011. Is that Football America being prudent, or Football America unwisely overlooking this team again?
Offense
The Bears know they can’t afford to have Jay Cutler sacked 52 times again this season. But there might be little they can do about it. Mike Martz’s offense is built predominantly on downfield routes that develop slowly off seven-step drops. It’s also built on maximizing the number of receiving outlets. Instead of having running backs stay in and pass protect, they often run patterns out of the backfield. In this system, the only eligible receiver who stays in and blocks is usually the tight end, which is why the Bears felt comfortable trading the pass-catching oriented Greg Olsen to Carolina. (The 262-pound Kellen Davis will fill Olsen’s spot, with some help from lanky ex-Steeler Matt Spaeth.)
Whether you like it or not, this is the system. This is what you sign up for when you hire Martz to coordinate your offense. As you might imagine, Martz’s system puts considerable demands on the offensive line in pass protection. And, as it’s plain to see, the Bears don’t have the talent up front to consistently meet these demands. They’re hoping that rookie right tackle Gabe Carimi can ameliorate the issue. Perhaps he can, but his presence won’t make up for lumbering left tackle JaMarcus Webb’s cinderblock feet. It’s stunning that the Bears are having the ’10 seventh-round pick guard Cutler’s blind side. Frank Omiyale wasn’t great in this position last season, but he wasn’t the liability Webb will be.
Inside is almost equally precarious. Left guard Chris Williams is a poor lateral mover whose feet get cemented in pass protection, particularly against bull-rushers. Right guard Roberto Garza is serviceable but lacks elite quickness. There’s a ray of hope with new center Chris Spencer, who’s 29 and a likely upgrade over the rapidly declining Olin Kreutz. Spencer has good size and adequate power; the question is, Can he win the job and stay healthy? (Garza began training camp as the starting center, with Lance Louis at right guard. But Garza has started just one game at center in his 11-year career and isn’t great operating out of position; expect Spencer to eventually get the nod here.)
To Martz’s credit, he’s lately shown a willingness to tweak his scheme with more running plays. This uncharacteristic play-calling balance is effective not because it keeps the defense honest or sets up play-action (these axioms are more myth than truth in today’s N.F.L.) but because it gives Chicago’s unathletic front five more opportunities to fire off the ball as run-blockers, and thus, be the aggressors. That’s important for the O-line’s rhythm; this group isn’t athletic enough to survive 60 minutes playing with the reactive approach that dropping back in pass protection requires.
Martz has a more powerful run game to rely on this season. Matt Forte, with his smooth but overly languid running motion, is still the starter. But new backup, ex-Cowboy Marion Barber, figures to contribute prominently. (So prominently that quick, space-oriented veteran Chester Taylor could be cut.) Barber has the one trait any runner needs when working behind Chicago’s offensive line: the tenacity to break tackles.
Though balanced (or close to balanced), Martz’s offense is still distinctly pass-heavy. And rightfully so. An arm as strong as Jay Cutler’s isn’t found often. Best to take advantage of it. Because of unyielding trust in his arm strength, interceptions will always be an issue with Cutler (just as they were always an issue with Brett Favre). Not wanting to compromise his style of play, the best way for Cutler to continue cutting down on turnovers is to sharpen his presnap diagnostic skills. He’s never been very good in this realm.
Fortunately, Martz does a terrific job of helping his quarterback in this department. He doesn’t give Cutler audibling powers (you think Martz would be crazy enough to let someone change his play call!?) but he employs a panoply of presnap movements and shifts, which often compel a defense to settle into a predictable coverage.
You need predictable coverages when Devin Hester is one of your starters. Though a sensational creator on special teams, Hester’s mediocre 0-60 acceleration in traffic and his still-primitive route running make him an ordinary wide receiver. It makes no sense to start Hester ahead of speedy Johnny Knox (who exploits zones well and is clearly a guy Cutler trusts).
The Bears’ No. 1 wideout is Roy Williams. Don’t laugh. The 29-year-old veteran has become a whipping boy because of his disappointing tenure in Dallas, but he was never a good fit for that system (he’s a big straight-line target with enormous feet that make changing direction difficult). We know Williams is a good fit in Martz’s system – he had 2,148 yards receiving when the two were together for 28 games in Detroit.
Another underachieving ex-Cowboy, Sam Hurd, rounds out the receiving corps, though he’ll probably be behind No. 4 receiver Earl Bennett, a steady but not explosive underneath possession target.
Defense
Lovie Smith is one of the ripest apples from the Tony Dungy tree. Consequently, the Bears are pretty much the only team left still running a full-time Tampa Two. The vanilla zone scheme is like a tube television or flip phone: a relic of an era just gone by but still a serviceable tool for those fully committed to preserving their status quo.
The Bears can only pull this off because their status quo has always been superior to everyone else’s. For most defenses, Tampa Two is now a form of prevent defensel; it’s a soft zone that’s naturally vulnerable to swing passes in the backfield, passes in the 15-20-yard range outside the numbers and anything down the seams. But most defenses don’t have two star linebackers or a deep rotation of initially explosive defensive linemen.
At this point, Chicago’s stud linebackers, Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, both of whom are on the wrong side of 30, are more super cogs than superstars. This is to say that their experience and judiciousness in this scheme masks most of their mild-but-relevant physical decline. Both can still run, which is vital. In fact, Urlacher is probably the only zone-playing middle linebacker in football whose first step after the snap does not have to be backwards as respect to the possibility of a pass; he’s fast enough to initially attack downhill and retreat into coverage if need be.
Briggs eats up ground in space but is actually most effective in traffic. He’d make more sense at the less glamorous strongside linebacker position, but three Pro Bowls as a weakside ‘backer nullify any thoughts of a position change. Hence, the vastly underrated Nick Roach, who plays fast all-around, starts on the weak side. It’s a fervid linebacking unit, over all, though its customary depth is nonexistent this season; special teamer Brian Iwuh is the only experienced backup.
Something very astute that Urlacher and Briggs often do is crowd the A-gaps right before the ball is snapped. Almost always they retreat back into normal linebacking position immediately after the snap, but by simply lining up right over the ball and presenting the remote possibility of a blitz, they force the opposing center to account for them. This prevents the center from helping either guard, which prevents offensive lines from double-teaming Chicago’s defensive linemen without sacrificing a running back or tight end. This is a key for a defense predicated on generating pressure with a classic four-man rush.
Obviously, with Julius Peppers around, offenses are still going to sacrifice their backs or tight ends to help double-team the end. That’s the value of Peppers, and Bears defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli has created some great designs to take advantage of the attention he attracts (the best probably being a delay blitz from the secondary, which exploits running backs who have abandoned the backfield to go help on Peppers).
Israel Idonije matched Peppers’s sack total last season (eight) and employed his terrific movement skills on stunts and bull-rushes both inside and out. The versatile Idonije can line up as a defensive tackle in nickel, if need be, and make room for second-year pro Corey Wootton (barring recurring knee problems) or disappointing ex-Jet Vernon Gholston on the edge.
Second-round rookie Stephen Paea is expected to be a force both as a two-gap occupier at nose tackle and one-gap penetrator as a three-technique. He’ll probably start at some point, although hardworking and flexible Henry Melton and low-leveraged plugger Anthony Adams could get the first looks inside. Matt Toeaina moves well and has power to warrant significant snaps as well. And, just as a shot in the dark, the Bears brought in former Texans first-round bust Amobi Okoye, who isn’t better than anyone mentioned thus far but is still only 24. Lovie Smith is a big proponent of rotating fresh defensive linemen, so expect Chicago to dedicate as many roster spots to this area as possible.
For offenses facing a Tampa Two, aligning wide receivers in minus-split formations (i.e. close to the formation) almost always ensures a wide receiver being matched up on a safety. In Tampa Two, the cornerbacks do not flip sides or even stray far from their outside posts. Because of this, it’s important that strong safety Chris Harris and new starting free safety Major Wright (who is about the 87th different player the Bears have tried at this position) be able to cover. They don’t have to be stars – they’re playing a simple zone, after all – but if they’re stiff, they’re sure to get exploited.
Harris’d movement is O.K. and he has great physicality – he should be fine. Wright, a third-round pick a year ago, is a tossup, which his why Jerry Angelo spent this year’s third-round pick on another free safety, Chris Conte.
Right cornerback Charles Tillman is a turnover-creating machine when comfortable (which is more often than not). Left cornerback Tim Jennings requires a little more safety help but clearly has the hip swivel that Zackary Bowman was lacking in this spot. D.J. Moore’s tendency to stare in the backfield probably led to Corey Graham getting the nickel job. The Bears aren’t all that comfortable with Graham either. If they were, they wouldn’t have had unsigned ex-Colt Kelvin Hayden in for a visit.
Special Teams
Robbie Gould is as fine a place-kicker as the league has to offer. His sterling accuracy numbers are often protected by Lovie Smith’s reluctance to attempt long field goals. New punter Adam Podlesh ranked fifth in the league in net average as a Jaguar last season. Devin Hester is the best punt returner in N.F.L. history. And, with Danieal Manning gone, he’ll now get even more kick returns…or would have before the league implemented new kickoff rules that this team abhors.
Bottom Line
Pro football is partly about deciphering patterns and probability. Years of patterns and probability suggest that the offensive line limitations will catch up to the Bears sooner than later. The defense is staunch, though an injury to Urlacher or Briggs could prove fatal.
Predicted Finish: 3rd N.F.C. North
Andy Benoit is the founder of NFLTouchdown.com and covers the N.F.L. for CBSsports.com. He can be reached at andy.benoit@NFLtouchdown.com.
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