Rugby World Cup 2011: Graham Henry missed a trick by including Richie McCaw in XV to whack Wallabies. And my predictions…

Did New Zealand head coach Graham Henry miss a trick when he selected Richie McCaw to captain the All Blacks against Australia on Sunday?

Captain and commander: Might Graham Henry have left Richie McCaw on the bench just in case he's needed?

His injury again brings up that age-old debate – do you field a star player able to give only 70 per cent or so, or an average player giving 100 per cent? And McCaw is undoubtedly a star player, but reports still had it that McCaw was hobbling around town with a slight grimace on his face.

McCaw, even on one leg, is well worth his spot. Even just for the psychology of his presence. No argument there. But will he even be needed on the field, is my question? Why risk him possibly being injured (even more) for the final, when the All Blacks can subdue Horwill & Co without him on Sunday?

Yes, David Pocock is a big threat to the New Zealand dream of ending 24 years of hurt, but after the whole Bryce Lawrence furore I'm confident referee Craig Joubert will watch him like a hawk on Sunday and the openside flanker won't be half the force he was against South Africa.

Okay, maybe the All Blacks will need McCaw – if only to cut off Will Genia or put motor-mouth Quade Cooper in his place, but should the question be purely black or white, as in he plays or he's out of the match-day 22?

Should Henry not have sprung a surprise by naming him on the bench? Then bring him on when/if the All Blacks turn to custard, or keep him fresh and fit(ter) to deal with the menace that's Sam Warburton if the black machine whacks the Wallabies off the park.

 A simply crazy idea or did Henry miss a trick? And so on to my predictions for the weekend…

New Zealand v Australia Could come down to which loose forwards rattle the opponents' No 10 the most. Who'll show the most jitters, young, new call-up Aaron Cruden or gifted maverick Cooper? Will Australia be able to replicate their magnificent Brisbane performance in August? Or will they this week discover that, unlike the Springboks, you can't allow the All Blacks 70 per cent of possession and still win? 

Ultimately, too much class in the All Blacks to be outdone by an Australian team that imploded against Ireland and burgled a victory against South Africa. NZ 24 Australia 15.

Wales v France A mouth-watering match to start the weekend. Wales have been mammoth so far, hugely disciplined too. They've stepped up in each game after losing their pool opener. Have they mentally and/or physically got one or two more massive games in them? And how much will Rhys Priestland's injury hurt them?

The French, by contrast, have been loose canons, who bumbled their way through the pool stage and were helped to victory last week by England's ineptitude. Was that their customary one big game per World Cup? Or is that game still to come? This has the potential to be the match of RWC 2011.

I'm going to pick Wales' structured, overall game plan over the French's thrilling but hot-and-cold approach to their game, and say Wales 18 France 11.

Let me know how you see it…

Sponsored by Maximuscle and the Cyclone Challenge – build muscle in 30 days or your money back – www.maximuscle.com/cyclonechallenge

Rugby World Cup 2011: Will NZ even need Richie McCaw do whack the Wallabies? And my predictions…

Will he play? Won't he play? How do you handle a 'problem' like McCaw?

Captain and commander: Might Graham Henry leave Richie McCaw on the bench just in case he's needed?

His injury again brings up that age-old debate – do you field a star player able to give only 70 per cent or so, or an average player giving 100 per cent?

I know Steve Hansen has claimed McCaw is fit and will play at Eden Park, but I'm not convinced yet. Hansen seemed to whisper it, rather than say it loudly and confidently, and it appears he was sick of being asked the 'will he, won't he' question, that his answer was aimed simply at cutting short the press conference. Besides, reports have it widely that McCaw is still hobbling around town with a slight grimace on his face.

McCaw, even on one leg, is well worth his spot. Even just for the psychology of his presence. No argument there. But will he even be needed on the field, is my question? Why risk him possibly being injured for the final, when the All Blacks can subdue Horwill & Co without him on Sunday?

Yes, David Pocock is a big threat to the New Zealand dream of ending 24 years of hurt, but after the whole Bryce Lawrence furore I'm confident referee Craig Joubert will watch him like a hawk on Sunday and the openside flanker won't be half the force he was against South Africa.

Okay, maybe the All Blacks will need McCaw – if only to cut off Will Genia or put motor-mouth Quade Cooper in his place, but should the question be purely black or white, as in he plays or he's out of the match-day 22?

Might Graham Henry spring a surprise by naming him on the bench? Then bring him on when/if the All Blacks turn to custard, or keep him fresh and fit(ter) to deal with the menace that's Sam Warburton if the black machine whacks the Wallabies off the park.

Or if Henry picks him him for the starting XV, should he have considered keeping Captain Fantastic on the bench instead? A simply crazy idea or a viable middle road?

And with that my predictions for the weekend…

New Zealand v Australia Could come down to which loose forwards rattle the opponents' No 10 the most. Who'll show the most jitters, young, new call-up Aaron Cruden or gifted maverick Cooper? Will Australia be able to replicate their magnificent Brisbane performance in August? Or will they this week discover that, unlike the Springboks, you can't allow the All Blacks 70 per cent of possession and still win? 

Ultimately, too much class in the All Blacks to be outdone by an Australian team that imploded against Ireland and burgled a victory against South Africa. NZ 24 Australia 15.

Wales v France A mouth-watering match to start the weekend. Wales have been mammoth so far, hugely disciplined too. They've stepped up in each game after losing their pool opener. Have they mentally and/or physically got one or two more massive games in them? And how much will Rhys Priestland's injury hurt them?

The French, by contrast, have been loose canons, who bumbled their way through the pool stage and were helped to victory last week by England's ineptitude. Was that their customary one big game per World Cup? Or is that game still to come? This has the potential to be the match of RWC 2011.

I'm going to pick Wales' structured, overall game plan over the French's thrilling but hot-and-cold approach to their game, and say Wales 18 France 11.

Let me know how you see it…

Sponsored by Maximuscle and the Cyclone Challenge – build muscle in 30 days or your money back – www.maximuscle.com/cyclonechallenge

Rugby World Cup 2011: Oh ye of little faith, I always knew Ireland would beat Australia

So, who was that fool who predicted Ireland would possibly not progress to the quarter-finals? Oh, yes, that would be me. Apologies to every lover of Guinness. Ireland were simply magnificent, and humble pie will accompany my pint of the dark stuff tonight.

Man meets boy: the immense Sean O'Brien hands off James O'Connor

What a momentous day it's been in New Zealand. Not just for the six teams involved – as South Africa and Argentina thumped Fiji and Romania respectively – but  for the tournament as a whole.

I think it's fair to say that after the first week, only Australia could really, honestly say that they were happy with their performance. Bang! A week later, and they'll have the most jitters of all. The Irish outplayed them in just about every facet and turned the form book on its head.

In 80 minutes Ireland showed exatly what other teams have to do to beat Australia (and it's not rocket science). Crush their scrum and commit ample bodies to the breakdown to keep Will Genia and Quade Cooper on the backfoot. The rest of the backline is then largely impotent.

And let's not have whingeing from Australians about referee Bryce Lawrence, who rightly penalised the weaker scrum for losing the plot and the contest.

The result will not only have thrilled every Irishman and woman across the world, but Kiwis too. Not only to see their neighbours and most recent conquerers come well unstuck, but also because it sets up – barring further upsets – a quarter-final between Australia and South Africa. One big beast will be out of the way come Oct 9.

Your thoughts please!

This blog is supported by Maximuscle, suppliers of creatine to Courtney Lawes, Joe Simpson and the Welsh team Team.

Rugby World Cup 2011: My predictions – Scotland to beat England, an early exit for Ireland, Wales to top Pool D

Under 24 hours to go to Rugby World Cup 2011 kick-off (at the time of writing), so time to spell out how I think the pools will develop. Is this what I hope will happen, or think will occur? Not entirely sure myself – probably a mix of voices from the heart and the head – but no matter, here goes.

And please let me know how and where you agree or disagree.

Pool A

Very much a two-horse race, with the only real significant match on September 24 between New Zealand and their nemesis, France. On paper you'd have to say the All Blacks, but then you think back to 1999 and 2007, and suddenly it's one of THE biggest pool matches imaginable.

Can Les Bleus upset the apple cart true and proper by beating the hosts? Both will obviously want to win the group – thereby, on paper at least, securing an 'easier' quarter-final – but Pool B is wide open and coming second in Pool A might ultimately not be a massive price to pay.

Being the hosts has huge pros and cons for NZ – possibly unbearable pressure and expectations, but also masses of support. The current All Blacks seem to be open and relaxed, mingling with the public and coming across confident. Compare that with the siege mentality of previous campaigns (and failures), and they may just be on to a good thing here.

Prediction 1 NZ, 2 France.

Pool B

One of two 'pools of death'. And gut feel says this is so tight to call that bonus points – for scoring four tries or more or losing by seven points or under – may just come heavily into play.

Yes, Argentina seem not to be the force they were in 2007, but I think they may still be good enough to trouble their opponents. Fence-sitting? No way! England to beat the Pumas by a comfortable few, before backs-against-the-wall Argentina rumble Scotland.

All which sets up the group perfectly for a killer clash at Eden Park on October 1. And in an ugly, messy, attritional slug-fest among the two packs, I predict the Scots to squeeze home by a point or two (all courtesy of kicks). And so we're back in bonus-points territory and possibly points difference.

Prediction 1 England, 2 Scotland.

Pool C

The most predictable in terms of who'll finish on top. Can't see any of the four teams remotely threatening Australia. The Wallabies are also in the comfortable position of having played their two 'big' pool opponents by September 17, allowing some rest for key players in preparation for the play-offs.

Who'll finish second is the exciting bit. On paper it would seem to be Ireland by a country mile – but Italy will fancy their chances given Ireland's lacklustre warm-ups and the narrow 11-13 defeat in Rome in February. Having both lost to the Aussies come October 2, I think the pressure will simply mess with the Irish players' heads. Their dismal RWC record will play on their minds – and continue.

Prediction 1 Australia, 2 Italy.

Pool D

The most physical, closely contested group of the lot – and the other one in which bonus points could determine the final standings. Spare a thought for Namibia, who will be lambs to the slaughter in every match. And much as I like the Fijian way of playing – and despite their heroics last year – this year they'll end fourth in the pool, leaving it to South Africa, Wales and Samoa to slug it out.

This may sound like a caveat, but much depends on whether Wales learn to play the full 80 minutes or stick to exerting themselves only in the last 40, which, against the Boks and Samoa, could mean both games are lost for them by half-time.

Much has been made of Samoa's win over Australia in July, but it was against a mix-and-match team, so I'm going to discount that slightly. Ultimately, then, I somehow believe Wales will win both matches while South Africa's rather boring but efficient kick-and-chase game will stifle Samoa (of course, and I expect some biffo from both, this match could be won by the team who earns the fewer yellow/red cards).

Prediction 1 Wales, 2 South Africa.

Now kick that ball in anger!

Finally, you can still enter the competition to win Maximuscle gear and products by predicting the England v Argentina and Wales v South Africa scores (see the previous blog).

And very finally, my predictions for the big opening matches: NZ 35 Tonga 13, England 22 Argentina 10, Wales 20 South Africa 17. Now let the games begin.

Follow me on Twitter @lookdownsouth

This blog is supported by Maximuscle, the sports nutrition choice of Courtney Lawes, Joe Simpson and the Welsh team. For more information on how Maximuscle is the Team Behind the Team, go to www.maximuscle.com/tbtt

Rugby World Cup 2011: My predictions – Scotland to beat England, an early exit for Ireland, Wales to top Pool C

Under 24 hours to go to Rugby World Cup 2011 kick-off (at the time of writing), so time to spell out how I think the pools will develop. Is this what I hope will happen, or think will occur? Not entirely sure myself – probably a mix of voices from the heart and the head – but no matter, here goes.

And please let me know how and where you agree or disagree.

Pool A

Very much a two-horse race, with the only real significant match on September 24 between New Zealand and their nemesis, France. On paper you'd have to say the All Blacks, but then you think back to 1999 and 2007, and suddenly it's one of THE biggest pool matches imaginable.

Can Les Bleus upset the apple cart true and proper by beating the hosts? Both will obviously want to win the group – thereby, on paper at least, securing an 'easier' quarter-final – but Pool B is wide open and coming second in Pool A might ultimately not be a massive price to pay.

Being the hosts has huge pros and cons for NZ – possibly unbearable pressure and expectations, but also masses of support. The current All Blacks seem to be open and relaxed, mingling with the public and coming across confident. Compare that with the siege mentality of previous campaigns (and failures), and they may just be on to a good thing here.

Prediction 1 NZ, 2 France.

Pool B

One of two 'pools of death'. And gut feel says this is so tight to call that bonus points – for scoring four tries or more or losing by seven points or under – may just come heavily into play.

Yes, Argentina seem not to be the force they were in 2007, but I think they may still be good enough to trouble their opponents. Fence-sitting? No way! England to beat the Pumas by a comfortable few, before backs-against-the-wall Argentina rumble Scotland.

All which sets up the group perfectly for a killer clash at Eden Park on October 1. And in an ugly, messy, attritional slug-fest among the two packs, I predict the Scots to squeeze home by a point or two (all courtesy of kicks). And so we're back in bonus-points territory and possibly points difference.

Prediction 1 England, 2 Scotland.

Pool C

The most predictable in terms of who'll finish on top. Can't see any of the four teams remotely threatening Australia. The Wallabies are also in the comfortable position of having played their two 'big' pool opponents by September 17, allowing some rest for key players in preparation for the play-offs.

Who'll finish second is the exciting bit. On paper it would seem to be Ireland by a country mile – but Italy will fancy their chances given Ireland's lacklustre warm-ups and the narrow 11-13 defeat in Rome in February. Having both lost to the Aussies come October 2, I think the pressure will simply mess with the Irish players' heads. Their dismal RWC record will play on their minds – and continue.

Prediction 1 Australia, 2 Italy.

Pool D

The most physical, closely contested group of the lot – and the other one in which bonus points could determine the final standings. Spare a thought for Namibia, who will be lambs to the slaughter in every match. And much as I like the Fijian way of playing – and despite their heroics last year – this year they'll end fourth in the pool, leaving it to South Africa, Wales and Samoa to slug it out.

This may sound like a caveat, but much depends on whether Wales learn to play the full 80 minutes or stick to exerting themselves only in the last 40, which, against the Boks and Samoa, could mean both games are lost for them by half-time.

Much has been made of Samoa's win over Australia in July, but it was against a mix-and-match team, so I'm going to discount that slightly. Ultimately, then, I somehow believe Wales will win both matches while South Africa's rather boring but efficient kick-and-chase game will stifle Samoa (of course, and I expect some biffo from both, this match could be won by the team who earns the fewer yellow/red cards).

Prediction 1 Wales, 2 South Africa.

Now kick that ball in anger!

Finally, you can still enter the competition to win Maximuscle gear and products by predicting the England v Argentina and Wales v South Africa scores (see the previous blog).

And very finally, my predictions for the big opening matches: NZ 35 Tonga 13, England 22 Argentina 10, Wales 20 South Africa 17. Now let the games begin.

Follow me on Twitter @lookdownsouth

This blog is supported by Maximuscle, the sports nutrition choice of Courtney Lawes, Joe Simpson and the Welsh team. For more information on how Maximuscle is the Team Behind the Team, go to www.maximuscle.com/tbtt

Rugby World Cup 2011: All bets are off as jitters grip New Zealand and hope fills England and Australia

Crikey! Just as I thought it was becoming easier to predict the likely finalists for RWC 2011, along comes this weekend to blow many hopes, beliefs and fallacies out of the water. Only a fool would part with big money to bet on a winner (even though, as we all know, pre-Cup form does not necessarily mean much come the play-offs).

Take New Zealand. They would have woken up Sunday morning as the ‘land of the long black cloud’. Their early-season form has deserted them, and while their defeat to South Africa could be written off as their B team, their Tri-Nations loss to Australia in Brisbane is likely to cause serious self-doubt.

Entirely outplayed for the first 40 minutes – the Wallabies’ commitment was brilliant – the All Blacks should not be flattered by the final score. Many of their top players looked tired and well off the pace, and Graham Henry and his wise men have a massive task on their hands to turn their belief around.

They may just have to clutch at straws – and there’s a good one in looking at Tri-Nations history. The All Blacks won the tournament in 1999, 2003 and 2007 – only to fall flat at the World Cup. This year they won’t go into the tournament as champions, red-hot favourites or with bags of complacency. All good omens?

As for the Aussies, full marks to you. Your tight five were ok, your back-row magnificent and your backs created and exploited gaps, along with stellar defence. I suspect England – who think they have the Wallabies’ number after two successive victories – will face a possible clash with great unease.

So what about England? I make the victory over Ireland their best performance of the year. Lots still to work on, sure, but there was steel and grit in their game. Ireland stepped up considerably from their three-week horror show, but still England kept them try-less while scoring  two themselves.

Even the midfield – generally acknowledged to be England’s area of weakness – looked more than solid. I’m still not sure they have what it takes to smoke the Southern Hemisphere big guns, but on this showing they’ll fairly easily top their group and approach the knockout stage with great belief. And, as omens and portents go, England won the World Cup on the back of winning the Six Nations in 2003.

All bets are off and my only prediction will be that Romania or Namibia are not going to win this.

And then some random remarks after Saturday – and please let me know how you saw the weekend unfold:

* What a shocker for back-row forwards. Ireland’s David Wallace ruled out of RWC and Jamie Heaslip injured, New Zealand’s Kieran Read and Adam Thomson in serious RWC doubt, England’s Nick Easter and Tom Wood sidelined for Dublin but seemingly okay to travel to New Zealand and Hendre Fourie did not last long. Who’d want to be a 6, 7 or 8 given the ferocity at the breakdown nowadays?

* After keeping a close eye on Wayne Barnes (Aus-NZ) and Nigel Owens (Ire-Eng) and their colleagues, I have this horrible fear that match officials – rather than a brilliant kick or try – could overly influence tight matches in New Zealand. Both were guilty of substantial inconsistency at times and getting a few key calls incorrect. Hope they all have a proper workshop before September 9!

* Martin Johnson may just need to have a quiet word with his team over discipline (and not for the first time). Chris Ashton sin-binned (admittedly paying the price for team-mates’ repeated offending), Courtney Lawes’ stupid barge and Manu Tuilagi’s take on David Wallace – even if missed by the touch judge – was a shoulder charge rather than a legal arm-binding tackle (not that this ws the cause of Wallace’s injury). Any of them could be very costly in a close affair. 

* Why do British commentators struggle with pronouncing Samoan names? It’s Manu Tuilagi, not Tuilangi. Just as it was Tana Umaga, not Umanga. Easy to practise … the ‘a’ is pronounced similar to when you’re at the doctor, have a wooden spatula pressing down your tongue and have to say ‘aaahhh’.

* And finally, while we’re on commentators, thank God this World Cup is not hosted by Australia. That way the whole world bar the Aussies will be spared having to listen to Oz commentary. They can be funny and witty at times, but they’re blinkered and one-eyed to the extreme. Their non-stop carping at real and perceived All Black transgressions was already irritating, but then to stay mum when the Wallabies do exactly the same is simply biased. Lord, how I still miss Bill McLaren.

Your views please and follow me on Twitter @lookdownsouth